SimonDigg wrote:It’s always interesting to see the discourse whenever a beloved player, a forum superstar you could say, has a disappointing performance and gets bounced out and people have to come up with reasons behind it. I feel “Jokic doesnt have a good cast” is a pretty clearly ridiculous line to have though.
In the context of a post based offense that can hide a non rim protecting 5 who obviously lacks the mobility to not play the 5, this team is absolutely taylor made for him.
Jamal - He had 2 bad games, btu the idea he had an “all time bad series” seems incredibly silly. The Timberwolves defense is great, but in particular it seems strange to see how much people prop up the Wolves big rotation when their perimeter defensive rotation is arguably more dominant. Jaden Mcandiels, NAW, and ANT are much more formidable defensively than Gobert, KAT, and Naz Reid. Most people dont watch all games, sure Naz has improved but he isnt considered an elite defender, he was probably considered decent for his position if anything, KAT is KAT but hes a good post defender. Gobert guards Jokic one on one worse than AD does honestly, he really struggles there and we saw it when the wolves strangely used that as their strategy vs double + bump or double + cutter bump a few games the wolves got killed.
Mcdaniels/NAW/ANT seem like an insane group to go against, Jamal did have 2 awful games but its pretty silly to point to overall averages as if he wasnt more so just “meh” overall outside of that. TS is a crutch that doesnt take into account the role of the player and the quality of shots they get, sure theres value in creating quality looks for yourselves but theres also value in taking difficult shots that an offense will always have to take and making them at below average but above expected for those shots rates.
Jamal as a whole did that over those 5 games, hes a strictly halfcourt player that doesnt run out or attack in transition, who by synergy had once against the worst shot quality in pick and roll in the playoffs for high possession players, and shot slightly above expectations (instead of historically above expectations like in 2023 according to synergy).
Game to game though, game 3 he was fantastic, he was the most important player that game in the sense that they went up 23 with 7 minutes to go in the second half and he had 20-3-3 and was 9/15 from the field, while jokic was 3/9 and had 7 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists. Sure, Jokic closed it out and we’ve now seen a 20 point lead isnt safe but it was completely smooth sailing and theres a huge difference between being the force to build a 20+ point lead and maintaining it, especially up 2-0 instead of in a game 7. Not as if those 7 assists were more impactful than they seem, DHOs and some murray shotmaking and breakdowns made them, and most of them were downhill short roll outside of those IIRC which you have to credit them both if anything
Games 4 and 5 he was more decent, but really again just look at the shot quality, he had to take some insane end of shot clock and iso shots those games. One look at the shots he had to take within his role as almost the release valve as Jokic isnt gonna shoot against strong help + the amount of late resets the team had had, and those games were really just “fine”. He was great in game 7 of course, if the argument is he should have done more in the second half, then thats very strange with him being the second option…, he was the best performing offensive player in the first half and the Nuggets offense was dominating and went up 20, he had a more muted second half and its his fault that the nuggets offense came to a screechinfg halt and scored 37, including 84 with a minute left pre fouling to extend the game? A second option leading an offense to a 20 point lead against a ridiculous defensive backcourt by being on pace to drop 50 at half… Maybe you could make the case that Jokic was the focus, but again basketball is a multif faceted sport where each possession has its own story, and of course, I dont know if what essentially was 2 DHOs and 2 kickouts to murray for a contested three and a stepback three means he was running the show just because their post offense which had seemed unstoppable proved to be ineffectual with a team on a strong on rotations and cutting off the cutter and easy high pass to an extent.
So 2 great games, 3 so so games, and 2 awful games, considering the guys guarding him were all absolutely elite defenders.
MPJ - someone mentioned he was taking mostly easy open threes? Were we seeing the same games?
Game 7
Transition three over mcdaniels, somewhat open
Three over KAT
Three over ANT closing out hard (although he didnt jump)
Sidestep three, beats NAZ closeout
Three with conley in his face, to the point he couldnt even sweep and sway
Three over gobert pindown
Game 6
Open Corner three
Pullup DHO transition three jumping forward (make)
Contested pullup over conley
Open three over closeout
Three over Ant closeout
P&R pullup three with Mcdaniels staying attached
Game 5
Blocked stepback three
Three over gobert closeout
Three over NAW staying attached on DHO
Transition three over Kyle anderson closeout
Three over ANT
Pullup three over ANT going away from the basket right
Open three
Game 4
Three over ANT contest
Deep three over Conley contest
Game 2
Stepback three over Conley
Stepback three over ANT
Off screen movement three over Kyle Anderson
Transition C&S off the move over ANT
Over Jaden Mcdaniels staying attached
Three over Conley
Much of these were a few feet behind the line too. Sure, he should have converted on the easy opportunities more, but no his shot quality was ridiculous lol.
Its valid to say that outside of 2 strong shooting games, he was a shooter who went 5/28 in those 5 bad games which is more no matter how you slice it… but acting as if he was taking “mostly open shots” is laughable, he was still as a whole taking the toughest threes in the NBA for C&S players, just didnt convert on them this time. If he standard is that he shouldnt be effefcted by hard closeouts front he 6ft4 44 inch vertical guy then ur standards are wrong. He took MPJ shots and didn’t make them.
Naz wasn’t considered a particularly great defender for the longest time, and is consistently below average defender in post ups year to year. KAT is a poor defender that does/did a good job in the post. Gobert is great but stronger guys like Jokic are a bit of a kryptonite, and the Timberwolves bizarrely allowing him to go 1 on 1 vs Jokic in game 4 and 5 and getting away from what was working in the post was very strange, they went back to doubles with a high bump and shifted to wakside doubles with a cutter bump when Jamal started being on the high side and it really completely shut down the Nuggets post offense.
Aaron Gordan was fantastic of course, KCP was a bit off from three but we’re literally talking about he coulda made 1 more three a game since hed just go 0/2 or ¼ instead of ½ or 2/4 in one or two of those games.
It makes it very fascinating how suddenly some people are retroactively trying to argue that his cast simply sint good enough, that doesnt really make any sense.
I think historically I cant think of a true “supporting cast” better built around one player. But what is a supporting cast? Was the 2020 lakers around Lebron a supporting cast? Or was it around Bron and AD? Is the 2017 warriors a supporting cast or is it a cast around Curry and KD?
In the context of a team with one clear top player and no other top 15 player (unless you get 2023 playoff jamal obviously), its basically the perfect one in terms of realistic expectations. What do I mean by that?
Offensively, its not the absolute BEST one ever, but its extremely well built. The components to a post offense would be
Shooting, especially off screen or movement shooting
Smart/Effective Cutter
Good Post offensive system
Nuggets counters in the post are built in read and react based on help, the Nuggets are by far the most organized post offense in NBA history, if any of you follow coaching things online teh Nuggets are the absolute blueprint whenever post offense gets mentioned because they are extremely methodical in how to beat help and allow it to be 1 on 1, its why soft help and things like box and elbows get killed.
Aaron Gordan is probably a top 5 Cutter in the league, extreme athleticism, quickness, and motor, and most of all intelligence and positioning is hard to come by. KCP and MPJ, particularly MPJ, are movement shooters, MPJ able to take insane shots off the catch, Jamal is jamal and can do well on teh high side off high double + bumps vs closeouts which we saw in game 7 before they adjusted.
Sure, Jokic is the foundation that makes it work, and does so better than anyone in the league could, but the foundation is just an incredible 1 on 1 post player able to pass against help. Embiid struggles a bit passing in general but did pretty well last year IIRC till injuries (and he always gets hurt rip), AD did much better this year as those reads got built in but isnt nearly the one on one force the other two are.
Most all time great bigs if told that the point was 1 on 1 or pass out and where the reads are because its very much a pattern and not complicated would be able to look much better passing even if there may be some early struggles, what makes Jokic special is he does find the pass very often and times it well, but in particular the dunker pass hes by far the best of all time at it. His skip passing is solid but honestly he can loop it especially if the help is a hard double vs a soft double, and in general methodical post playmaking isnt nearly as effective if you can cut off the dunker and either bump up so one pass away is able to be rotated to, or the weakside pass.
All of this is to say, if ur talking about a post centric offense, Jokic’s cast is probably the best example of more than the sum of their parts, but even as a whole in terms of enhancing that aspect of his game, its hard to think of a better offense ever. As a post offense its GOAT coaching (only in that aspect, Malone is more a top 3 ish coach in general, at least the staff overall).
3 movement shooters with ⅔ of them having teh ability to hit crazy contested shots, 1 elite cutter/dunker option, a strong on ball playmaker who can shoot and force post mismatches in P&R because theres a real size disparity there… thats not a super easy thing to find. Raw talent wise yeah you could find better offense, but replacing Jamal with like a Mitchell sounds like a pretty different type of “supporting cast”, within the context of the fringe all star level guys its pretty obvious no one fits better with Jokic than Murray. Murray is a P&R maestro but in a different way, hes probably the 3rd or 2nd best in the NBA at finding the short roll and stringing out soft hedges, can pullup vs Under at an absolutely elite level so the DHO’s + P&R are all more effective, etc etc. in terms of fringe or non high tier all stars that fit that bill, I dont know, maybe maxey or garland? Neither of them are as good versus switches or short roll passing though…, if ur gonna say a guy like Trae or Tyrese who themselves are top 8 offensive players arguably on a roll that feels a bit unfair for a supporting cast
What makes it insane is this team is not only built for that, but has the ability to rotate and provide backline help to make up for Jokic having some extreme shortcomings defensively. For the most part, (honestly might be more so against some other teams), Jokic’s complete inability to defend downhill is essentially a checkmate on some other teams. He has some true strengths defensively, elite defensive rebounding, good hands and is good at reading some plays particularly sets out of double drag to get good steals… but really that pure level of poor rim protection at the 5 and obviously not being mobile enough to be a 1-4 vs a well oiled machine is by far a bigger issue than the trae youngs or isaiah thomas’s of the world in a vacuum. However, with the combination of size and strong rotation ability of the team as a whole they can often get away with running some aggressive contain and crowd coverages to mitigate this, of course those coverage inherently give an advantage to the offense, which get hammered home more in the playoffs
Like the Nuggets are an incredible organization, I cant remember a team this well built around one player without a true superstar talent. Even the pre KD warriors, all you really had was a strong defensive group but not NEARLY this level of fit offensively, you basically had some spacing and a short roll playmaker and good coaching with numbers advantages, but thats it. This is like layers and layers beyond that.
Curry and Jokic honestly have some similarities, though. I wouldn’t say currys pre KD squads were built crazily for him but they could hide him defensively well since he isnt good on an island, Offensively, I guess you had an elite short roll passer? But Dray not being a scoring threat and IIRC their overall offenses pieces outside of Klay werent nearly as generational as like multiple movement shooters + perfect partners and cutters as much as just well designed there. The warriors coaching on 4v3 in the halfcourt after aggressive coverages is in a similar regard to the nuggets in the post, at least within those time frames of being absurdly good and the standard in coaching circles/lessons. Maybe that 2015 or 2016 warriors rosters compare as teams built around one player, of course that team was better defensively but I do think that might just be from hiding Jokic being a fundamentally more difficult thing than hiding curry once the playoffs hit.
I saw someone mention Jokic’s on off numbers being good as a sort of “aha” moment, but that feels very disingenuous. Since we’ve seen how the games have gone.
Leverage is a bit stupid at times, but when theres a HUGE glaring discrepancy, I think its worth noting. Citing Low leverage feels a bit silly when the nuggets just blew a 20 point lead, but honestly it is valid to say building a 23 point lead is far more meaningful than maintaining it when it never really got remotely close, ditto with the last 12 minutes of a 45 point loss really not having any tangible value at all. The fact that He was a +90 on-off in low leverage minutes and a +1 in all other situations is kind of astonishing, but its unsurprising with how much garbage time this series had and how bad the nuggets are once in garbage time because theyre very starter heavy.
More notable honestly, The nuggets faced some tougher offensive matchups, AD when the lakers were going to him or Bron when hea actually attacked downhill if they tried to hide Jokic on Rui (took him waaaay too long to start doing that), Ant and KAT, but even Gobert finally got some shine despite not getting right to the rim at times.
On/Off can be noisy, but this isnt the case of three point shooting luck doing Jokic in, teams shot 58% inside the arc against the nuggets with Jokic on the floor this postseason, 48% otherwise. Its honestly astonishing.
The idea of on-off can be silly because some teams are built to survive with a guy off the floor somet eams are built to enhance when theyre on it and arent as well built to survive with them off it.
With Jamal not on his 2023 grind and going against insane defensive competition with the wolves, its not surprising the offense did not do well with him off the floor. At the same time, they didnt do well when he was on the floor either.
Even if you look at the Nuggets actual offense with Jokic on the floor, it looks VERY pedestrian.
Game 1 105.1
Game 2 92.1
Game 3 133.3
Game 4 120.8
Game 5 133.8
Game 6 88.2
Game 7 101.2 (84.1 second half)
Basketball isn’t a game of high off rtg low def rtg win, possessions build upon each other, games build upon each other…
I think its fair to say the offense was essentially an abysmal failure in 4/7 games, which is pretty meaningful. Its one thing if some of these were grind it out wins but of those 4 losses 2 were complete blowouts, and 1 was a game where he took more primacy offensively in a second half as they did more to stop jamal and they put up a sub 80 offensive rating and blew a 20 point lead largely from their offense until they had to play the intentional foul game.
It sounds silly to blame this on any sort of whistle too, Jokic has a bad offensive whistle, although he’s absolutely gotten some silly calls for him especially as that game 7 was ending and the nuggets werep laying catchup, Jokic and the nuggets as a whole have the most insane defensive whistle i’ve ever seen though.
I think Jokic still has a solid shout as the best offensive post player ever though, although I could see the other way based on team construction for sure. As a whole I dont understand blaming everyone else for trying to constantly have to score with 5-10 seconds on shot clock resets after post doubles + good on a string rotations though, that falls on a fundamental failure of the system which really means the limitations of post offenses as a whole maybe, who knows…
What makes this rough in terms of any conversation about Jokic’s peak is, hes in this unbelievable situation to be optimized and be a true unstoppable focal point offensively, but… he was stopped? 4/7 games the offense was a screeching halt, and in ⅓ of the good games, Murray was by far the driving force in one of them building the lead with jokic not doing super well, Jokic just maintained it. All things considered though, all of this is mitigated by how bad Jokic is defensively. Hard to emphasize how awful he would look on another team that couldnt cover for his weaknesses. Is this the standard? Sure build a team around someone and cover up what they cant do but you could say the same for any guy from trae young to isaiah thomas, the only issue is you need more to help Jokic out. Sure he has strengths, good hands good reading of plays good defensive rebounding, than those players dont but his weakness is far more exploitable in most contexts he’s in teh perfect one for it not to be exposed, similar to some curry years but on a different scale.
We can start talking about the wolves like they are a legendary defense which they very well may be, but threads like “are they the best defensive frontcourt ever!” sounds a bit silly. Gobert is great but hes obviously declined from his Utah peak, and realistically nothing has changed about him, he was always decent on switches but not crazy good, and an amazing rim protector and pretty solid in the post but can get overpowered. He was never as bad as the detractors say or as good as those high on him are. KAT is a good post defender that isnt a good defender overall and messes up alot, and Naz as someone that has eyed him for awhile is a good athletic player that also tends to make some mistakes and is more an offensive guy than a defensive guy. They were utilized towards their strengths though.
Maybe the Wolves will go on a magical run and we’ll chalk this up to GOAT tier defense, but in the context of GOAT tier offensive players whose specific selling point was how unstoppable he was, I find it hard to players with a similar level of unstoppability in their offensive system, lets say, Magic, second stint cavs Lebron, maybe even nash if you go there, doing the same. Curry is up there as well but hes clearly able to be slowed down more.
I dont know, this makes me really re evaluate Jokic’s peak. His defense seems sustainably bad even in a great situation to mask his glaring weaknesses (matchup smatchup, 58% inside the arc vs him is insane, 3 point shooting is more noise and thats not what this is this is a fundamental flaw!), and offensively he in a perfect situation the offensive was fundamentally stopped and he only really showed dominance leading his team to victory in 2 games in a 7 game series where teh wolves decided to try 1 on 1 defense on him with gobert for 1 or 2 games for some odd reason. I personally thought of him as in teh Tim duncan tier, but perhaps the pure two way level play of those players is too hard to overcome given his weaknesses and the limitations of a slower style of post offense vs a instant bucket seal type or relentless one.
Even a guy like Giannis saw his offensive impact shoot up the roof, with a washed up version of lillard, iirc his offensive impact numbers nearly matched jokic in an RAPM sheet this year, till the worst coach in the NBA took over and it plummeted.
Curious to see how the mavs fare, id think the wolves win in 5 or 6 but who knows. I think if teh mavs look good that will make me have to REALLy reevaluate how I view Jokic, the best offensive player in the NBA but bottom tier defender in so many matchips and honestly in a vacuum even with his strengths given he cant just not be played in some matchups like other defensive players with specific strengths and glaring weaknesses… I dont know, maybe its similar to embiid where you hope you get that lucky series of opponents where its not exposed (or in embiids case being healthy for once) but most of the time its just not practical. Jokic certainly is teh first player in a long time outside since the solomon hill incident where I saw a player and thought, hey, maybe this is a player who has the peak of one of those top 5 level all time historic guys, now though It just seems clear that when considering not how a guy looks at their best in the best situation but also just in general and imperfect circumstances that hes probably closer to the field today than he is to that tier of player. Excited to see if Giannis ever gets optimized in the same way he has, even if he isnt near the same player offensively, might be a case of two way play being more impactful than one way play and one way liability (which we saw a ton in the 2000s really).
As a side note, 5 out everyone can shoot makes more sense if defenses didnt just sink and create a 3 on 2 weakside of theres no dunker thats hard to take advantage of with a skip pass, sure you can set a pin in but ur talking the same situations as with the dunker then with more time to recover… criticisms of the nuggets build in the post seems to come from a complete fundamental misunderstanding of how a post offense is supposed to function from cutter to strong side to weakside in terms of primacy of options.
Im 99% sure that if you did any research into 5 out vs 5 out 1 cut or 4 out 1 in that the latter two would clear, maybe if Aaron Gordon was also a fantastic shooter it would open up things more but honestly it fundamentally just gives more options rather than changing the dynamics of things that much.
Jamal did suck overall this playoffs, but wasnt the reason they lost at all. He had two horrendous nights in games they would not have won regardless since the entire offense was fundamentally shut down, and he played more as a difficult shot creator or as a guy to go downhill to get Jokic positions to get short roll assists. He was certainly the most important player in game 3 as he was the catalyst for them having a 23 point lead that Jokic did maintain very well, and was the driving force behind a 20 point lead early in the third quarter in game 7, and was more so passive that a sabateour the second half when the offense collapsed. As the second best player in a team built around a supreme talent and fitting around that talent, he was the driving force behind one win, was overall fine in the latter two considering role and the shot quality he had to have in that role and the defense he faced (is 19-8 on 8/17 shooting and 3/7 behidn teh arc bad solely because the possessions he got forced him to take difficult midrange jumpers versus at the rim in low shot clock situations vs elite perimeter defense, or is it just a decent night making tough shots at a decent rate), and in a closeout game 7 absolutely put the team in the position to win, just needed the “offensive GOAT candidate” to steady the ship at all in the second half.
