2023-24 RealGM All-Season Awards Discussion Thread

[Colbinii]

I mean I think the primary reason Minnesota lost is that the Dallas offensive stars played great and the Minnesota offensive stars didn't. Coaching can't always scheme stars away. In fact it very rarely can. That's why those players are considered superstars.

Just like all props to Mazzula, but Boston then beat Dallas because they were far more talented. Maybe he outcoached Kidd too, but that's not the primary problem there.

It's not as simple as team X lost, they got outcoached.

Now IDK how highly I rate his job this year, but I wouldn't decide because his team lost in the WCF. I know Colbini is convinced Minny is a much better team than Dallas and maybe they are. They certainly had a better regular season. But playoff series are different. And when you have a good defense and two offensive superstars like Dallas had, you can be a very tough opponent.

I didn't have that series any kind of major upset.

Good point. Minnesota offensive stars show up and it's a different series.

I still would have liked to see some different changes in lineups and defensive assignment, notably Kyle Anderson not playing since his offense is unplayable.

But yeah, definitely a "ANT and Towns make closer to season averages and they win the series" is very close to the truth.

[Peregrine01]

I mean I think the primary reason Minnesota lost is that the Dallas offensive stars played great and the Minnesota offensive stars didn't. Coaching can't always scheme stars away. In fact it very rarely can. That's why those players are considered superstars.

Just like all props to Mazzula, but Boston then beat Dallas because they were far more talented. Maybe he outcoached Kidd too, but that's not the primary problem there.

It's not as simple as team X lost, they got outcoached.

Now IDK how highly I rate his job this year, but I wouldn't decide because his team lost in the WCF. I know Colbini is convinced Minny is a much better team than Dallas and maybe they are. They certainly had a better regular season. But playoff series are different. And when you have a good defense and two offensive superstars like Dallas had, you can be a very tough opponent.

I didn't have that series any kind of major upset.

Good point. Minnesota offensive stars show up and it's a different series.

I still would have liked to see some different changes in lineups and defensive assignment, notably Kyle Anderson not playing since his offense is unplayable.

But yeah, definitely a "ANT and Towns make closer to season averages and they win the series" is very close to the truth.

Ant especially was making some silly shots against Denver. Dude was hitting long fades and pull-ups with two hands in his face that got people thinking he was the second coming of MJ. His shooting regressed pretty hard in the next series.

But I do agree with you that Minny's coaching was sub-optimal. They had Rudy involved in pick and roll for too long in that series when he really should've been roaming off DJJ from the get-go like the Celts did with Porzingis.

[MyUniBroDavis]

I thought the top of the west was a matchup chart

Dallas just stormed through it out of nowhere

I wouldn’t say that Minny were clearly better than Dallas, it was a close 5 game series I think but still could have been a sweep even, the concern was always offense could be stagnant, and the matchup was harder vs mavs than the suns or nuggets offensively personnel wise in terms of things to attack

[mikejames23]

Oh man, A lot of people aren't down with Gobert, but I thought he played really well again this year (almost top 5ish).

[The-Power]

2. Luka Doncic

3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (I had Luka ahead in the RS (he achieved comparable team results with so much midseason upheaval in his roster) and then his Wolves series was the best individual performance on the Playoffs. Shai is very good but you'd need something really spectacular to move up here and he didn't deliver that)

I'm curious what you mean by comparable team results for the two players. Could you elaborate?

Record
OKC 57-25 (#1 Seed WC)
DAL 50-32 (#5 Seed WC)

Team Net Rating
OKC +7.4 (#2 in the NBA)
DAL +2.2 (#14 in the NBA)

On-Court Net Rating
SGA +11.9
Luka +5.3

I struggle to see how those are at all ‘comparable team results’ for the RS. Indeed, it's the difference between elite and merely above average. The difference between OKC and Dallas in terms of net rating is the same as the difference between Dallas and Brooklyn. The difference in wins between OKC and Dallas is close to the difference between Dallas and Houston.

I also don't see the ‘midseason upheaval in his roster’ as a reason to prop up Luka's results considering that it was not despite but because of this upheaval that Dallas was able to make an impressive run and pull themselves out of the play-in range. Credit to Luka and co. for making it work immediately but that doesn't make the turnover a hurdle or adversity to overcome.

Please note that I am not challenging the ranking itself as I do believe one can have valid reasons for placing Luka ahead of SGA, and I am also not suggesting that the circumstances were similar enough to just look at team results to infer who has been better. It's the particular reasoning presented here which gives me pause as I think the observation on which it is based (i.e., both players achieving similar team results in the RS) doesn't seem to be rooted in reality.

[AEnigma]

Added sixth man of the year to my ballot. Thanks for the name-drops, Doc. Helped me care a little more about an award that I usually ignore.

[trex_8063]

I can't help feeling like the praise Jokic gets from many has created a sort of 'knee-jerk' over-correction from others. Maybe a bit of "voter fatigue", too; not sure.

To be clear: Jokic is not without weaknesses.
No one else on the ticket is, either.

One voter all but acknowledged he was a top-3 player in the rs, and then left him off his ballot entirely by reason of a "hugely disappointing" playoffs.......despite the fact that [among relevant minute players] he led the entire league in BPM, PER, WS/48, and on/off: in the playoffs (by sizable margins in some of these).

I just don't know how such can be used as the justification for leaving him not only out of the top 3, but off the ballot entirely.......while instead supporting another player eliminated in the 2nd round, one who missed time in the playoffs, and another who is just frankly multiple [several] tiers below Jokic as an offensive player (and supporting as #1 a player with even more defensive weaknesses than Jokic [while sporting worse offensive figures across the board in the playoffs]).

3- brunson
He could be hit or miss and when it missed his heroball could be so ugly as the worst of kobe but the degree to which he carried knicks was awe inspiring when it was hitting. Even in a fair chunk of the playoffs

I would go as far as saying that some of brunson stretches of games against philly and indy were better than anythingh we got of jokic this year

We're also talking about the guy at the helm of a team that was [like Jokic] eliminated in the 2nd round, while he put up inferior ps numbers with inferior on/off [drastically inferior on offense].

And I'm sorry, but I have to go so far as to say the bolded part is flatly untrue.

Jokic [for example] had a stretch of seven consecutive games early in the rs wherein he AVERAGED a 30-pt/15-reb triple-double on >64 TS with just 3.0 topg (32.1 ppg/15.7 rpg/10.4 apg @ 64.4% TS, 3.0 topg, to be precise).

Not long after there was a 6-game [consecutive] stretch where he again averaged a 30-pt triple-double on 61.8% TS and only 2.0 topg.

And another 5-game stretch where he averaged 26.4/12.8/8.0 on 72.8% TS and only 2.2 topg.

Or another 6-game stretch where he averaged 30.7/13.0/8.8 on 74.1% TS and 3.0 topg.

Or yet another 3-game stretch of averaging a 30-pt triple-double on >70% TS and <2 turnovers (30.7/11.7/10.3 @ 74.5% TS with 1.7 topg, to be precise).

Or toward the end of the rs a 10-game stretch averaging awfully close to a 30-pt triple-double on good efficiency (29.7/12.6/9.2 @ 65.8% TS and 3.5 topg).

Or the first four games of the Laker series: 29.0 ppg/15.3 rpg/10.0 apg @ 69.1% TS and only 2.3 topg.


The best 5-game runs I can find for Brunson was: 39.4 ppg/3.8 rpg/8.4 apg @ 66.5% TS with 2.4 topg toward the end of the rs.

Probably the 2nd-best was at the tail-end of the Philly series and G1 of the Pacer series:
42.0 ppg/3.6 rpg/9.4 apg @ 60.6% TS with 3.0 topg.

And honestly I can't find any others (more than 2-3 games in a stretch) that come close to these.


The fact is Jokic had SEVERAL stretches that were as good or better than any run Brunson put together. You're simply choosing not to acknowledge them.
And you cannot posit an "empty stat" argument on the guy that led the league in on/off for both rs and playoffs.

Jokic -
I think he was hit or miss already on a deceptively close lakers series.

Again, see the above first four games. They were [individually and collectively] bonkers: the WORST of those four was a 24 pt/15 reb/9 ast @ 74.6% TS with only 3 turnovers. The worst.

[AEnigma]

Trex, you are entitled to your opinion, but I do not think re-listing box scores (or box metrics) does much to advance the conversation when there has been a fair amount of explanation as to how people feel the box-score overstates his real on-court offensive effect — distinct from whether the team’s bench functioned well, which it generally did not — even before getting into significant defensive criticisms.

I agree I struggle somewhat with Brunson specifically being listed ahead, but I can still see it from a sentiment that the Knicks would have been a conference finals team if their team had not fallen apart because of injury (a factor which people weigh and assess quite differently). And while I personally did not feel anyone other than the general consensus top three merited high placement, I could have easily been in a position where I considered excluding Jokic myself if “better” players had been the ones to make the conference finals. Hypothetically, if Giannis and Embiid had been in the conference finals rather than Edwards/Gobert and Haliburton, then Jokic may have been off my ballot too, because a lot of us do want these ballots to reflect season results in most circumstances, and quite a few of us do not assess him as an outlier talent the way he may otherwise need to be to place ahead of a conference finalist Giannis/Embiid rather than ahead of a conference finalist Edwards/Gobert/Haliburton.

[ardee]

2. Luka Doncic

3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (I had Luka ahead in the RS (he achieved comparable team results with so much midseason upheaval in his roster) and then his Wolves series was the best individual performance on the Playoffs. Shai is very good but you'd need something really spectacular to move up here and he didn't deliver that)

I'm curious what you mean by comparable team results for the two players. Could you elaborate?

Record
OKC 57-25 (#1 Seed WC)
DAL 50-32 (#5 Seed WC)

Team Net Rating
OKC +7.4 (#2 in the NBA)
DAL +2.2 (#14 in the NBA)

On-Court Net Rating
SGA +11.9
Luka +5.3

I struggle to see how those are at all ‘comparable team results’ for the RS. Indeed, it's the difference between elite and merely above average. The difference between OKC and Dallas in terms of net rating is the same as the difference between Dallas and Brooklyn. The difference in wins between OKC and Dallas is close to the difference between Dallas and Houston.

I also don't see the ‘midseason upheaval in his roster’ as a reason to prop up Luka's results considering that it was not despite but because of this upheaval that Dallas was able to make an impressive run and pull themselves out of the play-in range. Credit to Luka and co. for making it work immediately but that doesn't make the turnover a hurdle or adversity to overcome.

Please note that I am not challenging the ranking itself as I do believe one can have valid reasons for placing Luka ahead of SGA, and I am also not suggesting that the circumstances were similar enough to just look at team results to infer who has been better. It's the particular reasoning presented here which gives me pause as I think the observation on which it is based (i.e., both players achieving similar team results in the RS) doesn't seem to be rooted in reality.

I suppose I misspoke (miswrote?).

What I meant was that post trade Luka's team results were quite elite now that he had a comparable supporting cast to OKC. Without counting the final two games in which neither Kyrie nor Luka played, which the team lost by a combined 67 points (ironically one was the OKC, which inflated their own SRS), they went 24-7 to finish the season with a +9 point differential (not sure how to calculate SRS for partial season stretches).

Shows me that Luka is absolutely capable of elevating his team performance in a similar manner to Shai.

[Peregrine01]

I can't help feeling like the praise Jokic gets from many has created a sort of 'knee-jerk' over-correction from others. Maybe a bit of "voter fatigue", too; not sure.

I don't vote in these things because I don't really care about ranking players - I just like good basketball discussion. But the antipathy toward Jokic is strange. Murray had an all-time bad series, and I mean all-time bad (you can argue that it was due to injuries but he was really poor before he hurt his calf anyway). Nonetheless, you still have posters writing his bad performances off to assign more blame to Jokic, who still had a pretty good playoffs though not as stellar as last year's.

[Colbinii]

I can't help feeling like the praise Jokic gets from many has created a sort of 'knee-jerk' over-correction from others. Maybe a bit of "voter fatigue", too; not sure.

I don't vote in these things because I don't really care about ranking players - I just like good basketball discussion. But the antipathy toward Jokic is strange. Murray had an all-time bad series, and I mean all-time bad (you can argue that it was due to injuries but he was really poor before he hurt his calf anyway). Nonetheless, you still have posters writing his bad performances off to assign more blame to Jokic, who still had a pretty good playoffs though not as stellar as last year's.

I think there is some room for critique surrounding Jokic since he can be such a negative on the defensive end in a playoff series. Teams can really exploit him on that end.

When you have this offensive savant at the Center who can be exploited defensively, if his teammates aren't playing well offensively, he loses some of his value in terms of pure impact.

I put Jokic #1 because Luka showed some of the same flaws (to a lesser degree due to positional flexibility) and SGA isn't quite the same offensive force/engine as Luka/Jokic. When the machine is well oiled, Jokic is on the short list of players all-time, but when things aren't going quite so smoothly, he isn't necessarily going to right the ship.

[Peregrine01]

I can't help feeling like the praise Jokic gets from many has created a sort of 'knee-jerk' over-correction from others. Maybe a bit of "voter fatigue", too; not sure.

I don't vote in these things because I don't really care about ranking players - I just like good basketball discussion. But the antipathy toward Jokic is strange. Murray had an all-time bad series, and I mean all-time bad (you can argue that it was due to injuries but he was really poor before he hurt his calf anyway). Nonetheless, you still have posters writing his bad performances off to assign more blame to Jokic, who still had a pretty good playoffs though not as stellar as last year's.

I think there is some room for critique surrounding Jokic since he can be such a negative on the defensive end in a playoff series. Teams can really exploit him on that end.

When you have this offensive savant at the Center who can be exploited defensively, if his teammates aren't playing well offensively, he loses some of his value in terms of pure impact.

I put Jokic #1 because Luka showed some of the same flaws (to a lesser degree due to positional flexibility) and SGA isn't quite the same offensive force/engine as Luka/Jokic. When the machine is well oiled, Jokic is on the short list of players all-time, but when things aren't going quite so smoothly, he isn't necessarily going to right the ship.

I thought his defense pretty awful against the Lakers when he looked like he wasn't even trying for stretches during games. But I thought his defense was mostly good against Minny. In any case, it wasn't defense that lost them that series but their offense - specifically their inability to deal with ball pressure.

[Colbinii]

I don't vote in these things because I don't really care about ranking players - I just like good basketball discussion. But the antipathy toward Jokic is strange. Murray had an all-time bad series, and I mean all-time bad (you can argue that it was due to injuries but he was really poor before he hurt his calf anyway). Nonetheless, you still have posters writing his bad performances off to assign more blame to Jokic, who still had a pretty good playoffs though not as stellar as last year's.

I think there is some room for critique surrounding Jokic since he can be such a negative on the defensive end in a playoff series. Teams can really exploit him on that end.

When you have this offensive savant at the Center who can be exploited defensively, if his teammates aren't playing well offensively, he loses some of his value in terms of pure impact.

I put Jokic #1 because Luka showed some of the same flaws (to a lesser degree due to positional flexibility) and SGA isn't quite the same offensive force/engine as Luka/Jokic. When the machine is well oiled, Jokic is on the short list of players all-time, but when things aren't going quite so smoothly, he isn't necessarily going to right the ship.

I thought his defense pretty awful against the Lakers when he looked like he wasn't even trying for stretches during games. But I thought his defense was mostly good against Minny. In any case, it wasn't defense that lost them that series but their offense - specifically their inability to deal with ball pressure.

Their defense wasn't great vs Minnesota.

But yeah, another issue for Jokic, he can't handle ball pressure as he isn't a guard/ball handling wing.

[Peregrine01]

I think there is some room for critique surrounding Jokic since he can be such a negative on the defensive end in a playoff series. Teams can really exploit him on that end.

When you have this offensive savant at the Center who can be exploited defensively, if his teammates aren't playing well offensively, he loses some of his value in terms of pure impact.

I put Jokic #1 because Luka showed some of the same flaws (to a lesser degree due to positional flexibility) and SGA isn't quite the same offensive force/engine as Luka/Jokic. When the machine is well oiled, Jokic is on the short list of players all-time, but when things aren't going quite so smoothly, he isn't necessarily going to right the ship.

I thought his defense pretty awful against the Lakers when he looked like he wasn't even trying for stretches during games. But I thought his defense was mostly good against Minny. In any case, it wasn't defense that lost them that series but their offense - specifically their inability to deal with ball pressure.

Their defense wasn't great vs Minnesota.

But yeah, another issue for Jokic, he can't handle ball pressure as he isn't a guard/ball handling wing.

IIRC, Denver had by the best DRTG in non-garbage time against Minny out of the three teams they played.

That’s a fair observation about positional differences. Which is why the best offensive players have tended to be perimeter players. But it was just how badly Murray dealt with ball pressure that was the issue IMO. It really suffocates your offense when it takes 16 seconds just to get into your sets.

[theonlyclutch]

I thought his defense pretty awful against the Lakers when he looked like he wasn't even trying for stretches during games. But I thought his defense was mostly good against Minny. In any case, it wasn't defense that lost them that series but their offense - specifically their inability to deal with ball pressure.

Their defense wasn't great vs Minnesota.

But yeah, another issue for Jokic, he can't handle ball pressure as he isn't a guard/ball handling wing.

IIRC, Denver had by the best DRTG in non-garbage time against Minny out of the three teams they played.

That’s a fair observation about positional differences. Which is why the best offensive players have tended to be perimeter players. But it was just how badly Murray dealt with ball pressure that was the issue IMO. It really suffocates your offense when it takes 16 seconds just to get into your sets.

I think the point being made here is that Luka/SGA in place of Jokic would not have this issue of being that reliant on secondary creators to handle this type of pressure - as we saw in DAL/MIN when Luka was basically unfazed by that same ball pressure that hurt DEN's offense..

[Peregrine01]

Their defense wasn't great vs Minnesota.

But yeah, another issue for Jokic, he can't handle ball pressure as he isn't a guard/ball handling wing.

IIRC, Denver had by the best DRTG in non-garbage time against Minny out of the three teams they played.

That’s a fair observation about positional differences. Which is why the best offensive players have tended to be perimeter players. But it was just how badly Murray dealt with ball pressure that was the issue IMO. It really suffocates your offense when it takes 16 seconds just to get into your sets.

I think the point being made here is that Luka/SGA in place of Jokic would not have this issue of being that reliant on secondary creators to handle this type of pressure - as we saw in DAL/MIN when Luka was basically unfazed by that same ball pressure that hurt DEN's offense..

It's a fair point that I acknowledged. It's worth bearing in mind though that match-ups do matter. Luka didn't deal as well with Dort's ball pressure or Brown's ball pressure. Jalen McDaniels was just too skinny to bother Luka much off his spots. Incidentally, I think Murray would have fared better against Dort and Brown than he did against McDaniels.

[Colbinii]

VOTE

LUKA

Carried mavs to a final and cooked the d that cooked jok on one leg. Fixed kyrie to win 50 with scraps and should have won MVP. Was also the best player in the finals tbh. I know his d is meh but his o is crazy.

EMBID
Was easy the best rs player before he got hurt and was still dropping 50 while hurt in the playoffs. He also is great at d and has crazy impact. He would def be POY if his legs werent made of tissue paper.

SGA
while
Went first in west and took luka to 6. Also could have been MVP tbh. Also plays great d unlike luka or jok.

TATUM

ppl can say whatever, but he led his team to a chip, barely lost any game leading his team in all the stats. Idrg why ppl put brown ahead. He also look great in rapms and on/off so maybe ppl care too much about his effeincy.

BRUNSON

carried knicks to 50 wins and 2 seeds averaging 30 and almost made conference finals despite super injured team averaging 34. Went crazy vs sixers and outplayed hali h2h. I think he deserves some respect on his name tbh.

Did you forget Jokic?

Surprised the Parody account is allowed a vote.

[The-Power]

Surprised the Parody account is allowed a vote.

They may not be considering that the name is not on the approved voting list (though of course this may have changed). The reasoning in that post is certainly... something.

[falcolombardi]

I can't help feeling like the praise Jokic gets from many has created a sort of 'knee-jerk' over-correction from others. Maybe a bit of "voter fatigue", too; not sure.

To be clear: Jokic is not without weaknesses.
No one else on the ticket is, either.

One voter all but acknowledged he was a top-3 player in the rs, and then left him off his ballot entirely by reason of a "hugely disappointing" playoffs.......despite the fact that [among relevant minute players] he led the entire league in BPM, PER, WS/48, and on/off: in the playoffs (by sizable margins in some of these).

I just don't know how such can be used as the justification for leaving him not only out of the top 3, but off the ballot entirely.......while instead supporting another player eliminated in the 2nd round, one who missed time in the playoffs, and another who is just frankly multiple [several] tiers below Jokic as an offensive player (and supporting as #1 a player with even more defensive weaknesses than Jokic [while sporting worse offensive figures across the board in the playoffs]).

3- brunson
He could be hit or miss and when it missed his heroball could be so ugly as the worst of kobe but the degree to which he carried knicks was awe inspiring when it was hitting. Even in a fair chunk of the playoffs

I would go as far as saying that some of brunson stretches of games against philly and indy were better than anythingh we got of jokic this year

We're also talking about the guy at the helm of a team that was [like Jokic] eliminated in the 2nd round, while he put up inferior ps numbers with inferior on/off [drastically inferior on offense].

And I'm sorry, but I have to go so far as to say the bolded part is flatly untrue.

Jokic [for example] had a stretch of seven consecutive games early in the rs wherein he AVERAGED a 30-pt/15-reb triple-double on >64 TS with just 3.0 topg (32.1 ppg/15.7 rpg/10.4 apg @ 64.4% TS, 3.0 topg, to be precise).

Not long after there was a 6-game [consecutive] stretch where he again averaged a 30-pt triple-double on 61.8% TS and only 2.0 topg.

And another 5-game stretch where he averaged 26.4/12.8/8.0 on 72.8% TS and only 2.2 topg.

Or another 6-game stretch where he averaged 30.7/13.0/8.8 on 74.1% TS and 3.0 topg.

Or yet another 3-game stretch of averaging a 30-pt triple-double on >70% TS and <2 turnovers (30.7/11.7/10.3 @ 74.5% TS with 1.7 topg, to be precise).

Or toward the end of the rs a 10-game stretch averaging awfully close to a 30-pt triple-double on good efficiency (29.7/12.6/9.2 @ 65.8% TS and 3.5 topg).

Or the first four games of the Laker series: 29.0 ppg/15.3 rpg/10.0 apg @ 69.1% TS and only 2.3 topg.


The best 5-game runs I can find for Brunson was: 39.4 ppg/3.8 rpg/8.4 apg @ 66.5% TS with 2.4 topg toward the end of the rs.

Probably the 2nd-best was at the tail-end of the Philly series and G1 of the Pacer series:
42.0 ppg/3.6 rpg/9.4 apg @ 60.6% TS with 3.0 topg.

And honestly I can't find any others (more than 2-3 games in a stretch) that come close to these.


The fact is Jokic had SEVERAL stretches that were as good or better than any run Brunson put together. You're simply choosing not to acknowledge them.
And you cannot posit an "empty stat" argument on the guy that led the league in on/off for both rs and playoffs.

Jokic -
I think he was hit or miss already on a deceptively close lakers series.

Again, see the above first four games. They were [individually and collectively] bonkers: the WORST of those four was a 24 pt/15 reb/9 ast @ 74.6% TS with only 3 turnovers. The worst.

I know jokic is a better player than brunson, but for player of the year ranking purposes i prefer to reward thinghs like how brunson and the knicks overachieved and brunson 40 point streak to get past sixers

Jokic instead while he played very well of course and filled the stat sheet but it didnt translate into good team offense when his team needed it ( a fair bit of his best numbers came in blowout wins or when his team was already fairly ahead to boot)

Is it kind of unfair? Probably but the way i see it so is considering team success in general if the purpose of this project is not -best player- but -best year/best achievement-

I have never thought brunson was as good as jokic just like i have never thought tatum was as good as giannis but i dont see this as a "my player ranking list" which would be its own project

[MyUniBroDavis]

People need to learn what an all time bad series is lol

In the context of a second guy, Murray had 2 really bad games, 3 decent games, and 2 great ones

That isn’t a bad series at all for a second banana that fits well talent wise. Obviously when you look at series averages him going 3/18 and 4/18 for two games bring his overall effeciency way down, but that’s not an accurate way to look at how he did in the series, especially two bad games where NO ONE showed up.

Something to keep in mind is outside of being a good p&r partner that’s strong in the short roll, Jamal’s role in the offense isn’t like the others who are play finishers off playmaking and the attention either the jamal or jokic two man game, or Jokic post ups get, he’s more of a release valve. It’s also a valid criticism to say that Jamal doesn’t have the ability to create offense when Jokic is off the floor at a great level and create easy shots at the rim for himself, but difficult shot creation and making is valuable as long as you aren’t taking away opportunities, and for the most part Jamal falls into that category, so comparing his shooting percentage to an average players in terms of TS% doesn’t make much sense when the offense doesn’t create as much easy off ball scoring opportunities for him and he takes the brunt of difficult shots, and almost all of his offense is halfcourt rather than transition as their transition game is more leakouts than a player taking it all the way coast to coast and jamal isn’t a guy doing leakouts as they have other players in that role more so

Obviously he was great in games 3 and 7, and was the primary reason they built big leads those games. He was slightly muted in the second half’s of those games, but I’d say he certainly was the most important nugget in game 3, with Jokic struggling in the first half and them building a 20 point lead and then taking them home, and game 7 it was a bit similar although Jokic had a solid first half, but Jamal’s shot making was what brought them up

I also will say as I had lurked for a bit the idea that they were this absurdly horrendous matchup for Jokic without any mention about jamal when their perimeter defenders as a unit are superior to their big defenders is a bit strange

The overall size from their bigs in the context of the 2024 NBA is great, and Gobert is a great defender, and that’s it lol.

Well what were they elite in defensively? They were the #2 best team defending pick and roll ball handlers, #2 team defending isolations.

They were 25th defending the roll in P&R, and 23rd in defending the post.

KAT’s individual post defense this year was about average, he’s generally had some great years and some average ones, max was a bit above but was awful the two years prior, goberts been good but we’ve seen that he struggles against weight sometimes and Jokic kinda cooks him one on one as we saw in a few games they tried that.

Now as a unit they’re very strong and just throwing big bodies is effective but threads like “are they the best frontcourt defense ever” or stuff like that… like what? Naz is an average defender overall, but has strong athleticism, KAT isn’t a good defender overall, Goberts a top 3 defender, but also like his best strength is his help D lol


Games 1,4,5 are more interesting to look at in the context of “decent games.” Not superstar games by any means, but decent all things considered.

The first thing that would be a criticism would be, “he didn’t have a single game shooting league average TS in these games, trash!” But like, what does this empirically mean?

Against likely the best perimeter defense in the league that is super elite in literally the two areas he specialized in, and as a player who is relied upon to take difficult shots as almost a safety valve at times since all offenses will have to have those shots taken by someone, he should have scored 1 more point per game if you assume he played an average defense (and not an ATG perimeter defense), and took average shots (and not being relied upon to take difficult looks).

Specifically his lines in those games
G1: 17-4, 1 TO
G4: 19-8, 3 TO
G5: 16-4, 2 TO

Shot profile
G1:
missed 3 coming off screen
Missed pullup 3 off zoom action (down screen into DHO)
Missed zoom floater Gobert
Zoom for MPJ breaks down, flows into jamal P&R pullup Miss
Misses P&R floater Gobert
Catches at logo with 3.5 seconds, makes pullup setback over ANT
Makes a heavily contested layup over Gobert
Makes a pullup P&R jumper over dropping Naz
Misses a pullup P&R jumper over McDaniels
Missed late clock P&R floater
Makes post cut over NAW (as in he cut, but NAW stayed right there so it turned into a post up)
4 point play over KAT
missed post fade over conley
Made floater off DHO over Gobert



G4:
Catches with 7 seconds left, misses P&R contested pullup over KAT
Makes iso pullup over over Jaden McDaniels
Makes step back pullup over Jaden McDaniels after he perfectly gets through screen
Missed transition layup (caught under rim, with ANT on his body)
Halfcourt shot make
Makes P&R layup over Gobert
Makes fadeaway pullup jumper ofer KAT off P&R
Makes a step back pullup 3 against a soft hedge ofer mcdaniels
^ does this again
Misses stepback three over mcdaniels
Misses post fade vs Ant
Layup off beating Kyle Anderson in iso over Ant
Misses P&R stepback 3 over NAW
Action doesn’t work off switches, misses iso pullup 3 vs gobert
Missed open C&S three
Missed P&R layup through Gobert
Blocked by ANT on cut


G5:
Catches at logo with 5S left, misses floater off P&R over Gobert outside the FT line
^ gets his own board makes putback
DHO doesn’t work, misses post fade vs ANT
Zoom breaks down, P&R with 5 seconds left (under), missed contested pullup
Misses pullup vs Gobert on switch in P&R (5 seconds left on shot clock)
Missed layup vs Gobert on P&R
Misses on cut over Gobert
DHO with 5 seconds, floater over Mcdaniels
p&R layup make
Leak out transition layup make
Action breaks down, logo iso vs ANT with 4.5 seconds left missed layup
Made pullup vs mcdaniels after beating closeout in transition
Made post fade vs NAW
Made layup over Gobert after beating ant downhill

Gobert wasn’t necessarily contesting every shot but you know intimidation and all that

Like an example demonstrating, Jamal took 4.0 shots per game with 0-4 seconds left on the shot clock vs the wolves, which for an overall playoffs is only behind Middleton (then Embiid at 3.7,Brunson/harden/Jokic at 3.2), and for the overall season would be 1st (Embiid is normally at 2.9).

He had a 41.1%EFG on those shots, doesn’t sound great but Jokic, next up at 3.3 a game vs the wolves, was at 28.3% on these shots vs them and certainly was assisted more on his shots, it’s a low quality look lol.

So what’s the conclusion? Well, murray was clearly taking fairly difficult self created shots, and often it was far more within the flow of the offense or late clock rather than being selfish or anything (so think play breaking down), and was about average effeciency on a crazy tough shot diet vs primarily probably the best perimeter defender in the league at guarding perimeter pick and roll players below a certain BMI (a few guys I would take overall as perimeter defenders since stronger guys will cook him kind of but jamal ain’t one of the stronger guys lol)


So a 3 game stretch where he took crazy difficult shots vs a crazy good defense, and he was slightly less effecient than expected if he took average shots vs an average defense, I think effecient wise that’s ok. There’s a reason why a 34-36% pullup 3 point percentage is more valuable than a 38-40% catch and shoot percentage after all, to put it in a simpler way.

Game 3 jamal was the best player considering he got them a 20+ point lead and then kinda fizzled out as Jokic took them home, game 7 I definately thought his shotmaking was what drove them the most to the early lead (and we saw what happened as it faded) but Jokic was obviously the best player overall on the team considering the second half

Was it a fantastic series? Of course not, but all things considered, in the context of a #2, 3 decent games, 2 fantastic ones, and 2 bad ones, is in no possible way an “all time bad series.” Like that seems like some absurd cope lol. Like literally Kyrie was worse vs OKC and arguably Boston lol.

Like these two players aren’t held to the same standard, of course Jokic was better than jamal, ones like a fringe top 20 guy that just has moments of ridiculousness in the playoffs that fits well, the other was getting talks about GOAT offensive player when he really isn’t in that conversation right now.

The supporting cast was no where near as bad as people say it was when you look at the objective to be to win 4 games rather than have the highest point differential. They had two awful games where Jokic was also not very effective at all, so of course summarized data will bring them down, but since jamal 100% accounts for a member of the supporting cast, they were pretty great overall for at least 5 games.

Game 7 was the only game where it’s arguable they weren’t great, but once they hit a 20 point lead, jamal was 10/18, with 29 points, 4 made threes, and of Jokic’s 5 assists, 2 of them were off DHOs for a tough finish for jamal over naz high off glass, a DHO for a midrange pullup, and a post to jamal who still had to hit a stepback going left (which iirc is where he’s worse at off the dribble? There’s one direction he’s far worse at iirc).

I think it’s a two way street because beyond the 20-2 run where Jokic was largely absent which simply can’t happen against a team like the wolves… a lot of the success they had offensively was attacking Jokic:


Defensive possessions he was directly involved in:

KAT beats Jokic off the dribble, AG has to rotate and foul

Jokic fouls Rudy on Oboard (bonus)

Jokic lazy in catch hedge and Rudy gets the open roll after the hit ahead and dish (I Lowkey forgot the terminology here)

Jokic gets split on catch hedge trying to reach, defend rotates leads to open mcdaniels three

Transition, Ant is at the opposite three when
Jokic is near halfcourt, KCP forces him to slowdown and gather, Jokic doesn’t really try running back

Ant attacks Jokic in Drop, MPJ helps,

mcdaniels open three

KAT attacks Jokic and scores directly at the rim

Jokic TO leads to open transition

Rudy post fade lol

Naz gets by jamal, Jokic tries to draw a change and naz scores around him

Naz dunks on him off a putback

(5 seconds in shot clock, down by 4 44 seconds left below)

KAT putback dunk off OREB, Jokic in position


Like you can for sure argue maybe someone should have boxed out for KATs dunk but it’s also like, as good as a defensive rebounder as Jokic is his physical limitations (and not going for the ball that hard down 5 with 44 seconds left in game 7 at home) caused it too right? Ditto to with goberts. And the above isn’t counting times Jokic couldn’t help when someone else could have and instead they have their array of big wings help instead on like, KAT or ANT going downhill

And some of is bad decisions, like ANT is in transition, KCP is running back, why are you trying to meet him at the ball realize you F*** up and run back only to not get back in the play despite KCP delaying him? Or how much they have to commit to helping Jokic at the rim and how this was a time their crazy on point hep rotations were just beaten because of wolves positioning themselves well

Jokic is good defensively in the RS and not the playoffs because teams are largely trying to play their brand of basketball outside of B2B same games and stuff in the RS, teams home in on weaknesses more in the playoffs and despite the nuggets constructing a great roster to be strong offensively while hiding him defensively even in a perfect scenario it can be difficult to hide a plodding center with Ko rim protection, his strengths are strong reads and good hands off some aggressive coverages but that’s not enough with the physical limitations he has.

Combine this with the run they couldn’t score at all and he largely didn’t do much in terms of taking it on his own during the run, and really we have a situation where the nuggets built a 20 point lead largely off of jamal being on pace for a 50-60 point game at that time, Jokic took more reigns as jamal cooled off and they had like a 70 off rtg and he was hunted on defense where probably I’d say 70% of the non stepback three buckets in the second half involved some form of Jokic being beat, or having to be helped out on, or just not making a good play.

Like I hold Jokic to a different standard not because of him being in discussions he doesn’t belong in, but because unlike other guys like Giannis, Luka, etc, he’s on a team nearly perfectly built to hide him defensively, support him offensively in a “he’s the engine that makes theme more than sum of their parts” type of way, with probably a top 5 coach (really 3) in the league that runs the best post offense schematically, literally ever, and understands how to hide a non rim protector through aggressive coverages and mixing up rotations and help closeout recovery strategies and stuff like that (last 2 years at least)

The nuggets had an offensive rtg of 95.5 in the three losses prior to game 7, with Jokic on the floor, they had. A mark of 101.2 in game 7 with Jokic on the floor, the team having one of 123.4 up to the point Jamal put them up 20, and as Jokic took a more commanding role it was 77 the rest of the way, including the concession bucket at the end (which would take it to below 75 not including that)

And in their three wins, am I really giving him credit for going 3/9 as they were up 23 and bringing them home cooking as the game was essentially done?

I realize some might think that’s a double standard… but like, let’s say I make this crazy meal and all I need you to fo is take it out of the oven, one time you do and the other time you don’t and it’s burnt to a crisp, that doesn’t cancel each other out if you do that you a fool lol ain’t no 50% hit rate hell nah

In any case there’s the idea that Jokic is this on stoppable offensive engine force and reality is they’ve literally always done poorly offensively with him on the court during his prime (not peak neccessarily I know) when faced with the best defense of those runs


Off rtg vs the best defensive team they faced in the postseasons:

110.8 vs minnesotta 2024 (and inflated asf!)
111.6 vs Miami 2023
110.0 vs the warriors 2022
103.2 vs suns 2021
109.8 vs the lakers 220

I’m sure someone might bring up the 2023 lakers… but to be clear that’s a team completely built off 1 ridiculous defender on an absurd tear who can’t guard girth and couldn’t do what he did, and jamal was 2001 Kobe that series lol.

In any case in one series we don’t need inferential impact data on low samples when we can empirically see what happened with our eyes but it’s good to have raw “what actually happened” data to contextualize the strengths and failures that occurred, but throwing in things like “here’s their EPM on a 7 game sample” sounds like crazy shallow analysis

But yeah idk jamal having an all time bad series idk about that