If Durant stayed in OKC after 2016 and they got Horford, who wins the 2017 title?

[ardee]

It's worth noting that the Ibaka for Olaidpo and Sabonis trade had in fact already happened before KD made his decision to sign with the Warriors.

Had he stayed, and then the Thunder used the new cap space to add Horford, you're looking at a rotation of Russ/Roberson/Durant/Horford/Adams with Oladipo as the 6th man and Sabonis as the third big, plus tertiary depth.

How does that not look like an 10-11 SRS team? The Thunder were a 7.1 SRS team in 2016 but that year Russ and KD combined for 80% of the team's VORP. It's not hard to imagine they jump up a level by adding a tertiary scorer (they actually were 9.2 SRS in 2013 when they had Kevin Martin as 6th man), as well as an all-around versatile big man like Horford.

Then you basically have three absolute juggernauts in the Cavs, Warriors and Thunder, all kind of evenly matched, with the Spurs not too far behind.

Who do you think wins it all that year?

[Throwawaytheone]

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[ardee]

To me, it seems like a question of what are the odds the Warriors win, even with this change. That question depends on what the Warriors do with their SF position? Do they keep HB, do they get an upgrade, a downgrade, etc.

I think it's a little strange to assume that the Warriors would be the favorites in 2017 anyway after they'd just lost to the Cavs (and for all we know, could've lost to the Cavs one year prior as well depending on injuries).

Without Durant to GSW happening, the Cavs would undoubtedly be the 2017 favorite as defending champs, and you'd put an OKC with Horford and Oladipo at LEAST on par with the Warriors imo.

[Throwawaytheone]

.

[iggymcfrack]

If we assume the Thunder get Durant AND Horford, I'd agree that they would be the favorites, albeit slight favorites over Golden State and Cleveland. Honestly though, if Durant doesn't go to the Warriors, I think Horford is probably the player that fills his salary slot in Golden State. Al would have been a perfect fit with Golden State and they would have had more money available than the Thunder. They'd have no reasons to let themselves get outbid and Al would likely feel better about both his role and his ability to win a championship with Golden State.

[lessthanjake]

If we assume the Thunder get Durant AND Horford, I'd agree that they would be the favorites, albeit slight favorites over Golden State and Cleveland. Honestly though, if Durant doesn't go to the Warriors, I think Horford is probably the player that fills his salary slot in Golden State. Al would have been a perfect fit with Golden State and they would have had more money available than the Thunder. They'd have no reasons to let themselves get outbid and Al would likely feel better about both his role and his ability to win a championship with Golden State.

Yeah, this is the thing with the Durant years for Golden State. If they don’t get Durant, they’d have used that salary for someone, and it was quite likely to be Al Horford IMO—who would’ve fit very well. To me, the Warriors probably would’ve been better off in that case overall. Not as good in 2017 and 2018, but it’s probably enough anyways (at least in 2017, maybe not enough to beat the 2018 Rockets), and then is just clearly better after that.

Anyways, to answer the question of the thread, I don’t think the Thunder would have been a 10 SRS team, and I think the Warriors still would’ve been the favorites the next year (despite losing to the Cavs in the 2016 Finals, I think Warriors are favorites assuming Curry is fully healthy). But the Thunder’s chances certainly would’ve been pretty decent and not far behind the Warriors (or the Cavs). Not to mention we have the Spurs lurking as a genuine contender, if we assume Kawhi is healthy in this alternate universe. There wouldn’t be a particularly high degree of confidence in any team IMO, though probably the Warriors get the nod as my favorite.

[RCM88x]

If we assume the Thunder get Durant AND Horford, I'd agree that they would be the favorites, albeit slight favorites over Golden State and Cleveland. Honestly though, if Durant doesn't go to the Warriors, I think Horford is probably the player that fills his salary slot in Golden State. Al would have been a perfect fit with Golden State and they would have had more money available than the Thunder. They'd have no reasons to let themselves get outbid and Al would likely feel better about both his role and his ability to win a championship with Golden State.

Yeah, this is the thing with the Durant years for Golden State. If they don’t get Durant, they’d have used that salary for someone, and it was quite likely to be Al Horford IMO—who would’ve fit very well. To me, the Warriors probably would’ve been better off in that case overall. Not as good in 2017 and 2018, but it’s probably enough anyways (at least in 2017, maybe not enough to beat the 2018 Rockets), and then is just clearly better after that.

Anyways, to answer the question of the thread, I don’t think the Thunder would have been a 10 SRS team, and I think the Warriors still would’ve been the favorites the next year (despite losing to the Cavs in the 2016 Finals, I think Warriors are favorites assuming Curry is fully healthy). But the Thunder’s chances certainly would’ve been pretty decent and not far behind the Warriors (or the Cavs). Not to mention we have the Spurs lurking as a genuine contender, if we assume Kawhi is healthy in this alternate universe. There wouldn’t be a particularly high degree of confidence in any team IMO, though probably the Warriors get the nod as my favorite.

At the time I feel like a lot of the reporting was that HB was the guy if it wasn't gonna be KD, I'm not sure if they would have had the space for Horford too?

[lessthanjake]

If we assume the Thunder get Durant AND Horford, I'd agree that they would be the favorites, albeit slight favorites over Golden State and Cleveland. Honestly though, if Durant doesn't go to the Warriors, I think Horford is probably the player that fills his salary slot in Golden State. Al would have been a perfect fit with Golden State and they would have had more money available than the Thunder. They'd have no reasons to let themselves get outbid and Al would likely feel better about both his role and his ability to win a championship with Golden State.

Yeah, this is the thing with the Durant years for Golden State. If they don’t get Durant, they’d have used that salary for someone, and it was quite likely to be Al Horford IMO—who would’ve fit very well. To me, the Warriors probably would’ve been better off in that case overall. Not as good in 2017 and 2018, but it’s probably enough anyways (at least in 2017, maybe not enough to beat the 2018 Rockets), and then is just clearly better after that.

Anyways, to answer the question of the thread, I don’t think the Thunder would have been a 10 SRS team, and I think the Warriors still would’ve been the favorites the next year (despite losing to the Cavs in the 2016 Finals, I think Warriors are favorites assuming Curry is fully healthy). But the Thunder’s chances certainly would’ve been pretty decent and not far behind the Warriors (or the Cavs). Not to mention we have the Spurs lurking as a genuine contender, if we assume Kawhi is healthy in this alternate universe. There wouldn’t be a particularly high degree of confidence in any team IMO, though probably the Warriors get the nod as my favorite.

At the time I feel like a lot of the reporting was that HB was the guy if it wasn't gonna be KD, I'm not sure if they would have had the space for Horford too?

I’m no NBA salary expert, but Durant and Horford made the exact same salary in the 2016-2017 season, so presumably if the Warriors were able to pay Durant then they could’ve paid Horford instead, no? I’m not saying they could’ve gotten both Durant and Horford, but rather Horford instead of Durant.

[Colbinii]

Yeah, this is the thing with the Durant years for Golden State. If they don’t get Durant, they’d have used that salary for someone, and it was quite likely to be Al Horford IMO—who would’ve fit very well. To me, the Warriors probably would’ve been better off in that case overall. Not as good in 2017 and 2018, but it’s probably enough anyways (at least in 2017, maybe not enough to beat the 2018 Rockets), and then is just clearly better after that.

Anyways, to answer the question of the thread, I don’t think the Thunder would have been a 10 SRS team, and I think the Warriors still would’ve been the favorites the next year (despite losing to the Cavs in the 2016 Finals, I think Warriors are favorites assuming Curry is fully healthy). But the Thunder’s chances certainly would’ve been pretty decent and not far behind the Warriors (or the Cavs). Not to mention we have the Spurs lurking as a genuine contender, if we assume Kawhi is healthy in this alternate universe. There wouldn’t be a particularly high degree of confidence in any team IMO, though probably the Warriors get the nod as my favorite.

At the time I feel like a lot of the reporting was that HB was the guy if it wasn't gonna be KD, I'm not sure if they would have had the space for Horford too?

I’m no NBA salary expert, but Durant and Horford made the exact same salary in the 2016-2017 season, so presumably if the Warriors were able to pay Durant then they could’ve paid Horford instead, no? I’m not saying they could’ve gotten both Durant and Horford, but rather Horford instead of Durant.

Pretty good summary here.

https://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2016/6/28/12046612/nba-free-agency-2016-news-kevin-durant-golden-state-warriors-harrison-barnes

[PhiEaglesfan712]

My guess is that the Spurs win the title, assuming Kawhi doesn't get hurt.

[SK21209]

That's a lot of talent, size on athleticism on OKC but I'm not sure I'd call them the favorite. We saw a few years later in Philly that Horford at the 4 next to a questionable shooting 5 (Embiid was a streaky, low 30s% shooter back then) didn't look great. Adams is a complete nonshooter. I'm not sure Sabonis gets much playing time behind those two, and I'm skeptical that Donovan would have leaned into Russ/Oladipo/Roberson/Durant/Horford lineups. They always wanted size and athleticism on the court. Oladipo also didn't take the big leap until 2018, not sure that happens on a team with Russ and KD.

They'd certainly be one of the 3 or 4 best teams in the league, but I don't think they'd be the favorite. The Cavs were a juggernaut offensively in 2017, we just don't remember because the Warriors were a cheat code. The Warriors without KD would win 60+ games again and would be a coin flip against the Cavs IMO. The Spurs were really good in 2017 too. Gasol replaced Duncan who really fell off in the second half of the 2016 season after a knee injury. Parker was healthier than he'd been the last two seasons. Kawhi took another step forward, I thought he should have won MVP that year. They didn't have as good of a record or net rating as the 2016 team but I think they might have been a better playoff team.

[ardee]

My guess is that the Spurs win the title, assuming Kawhi doesn't get hurt.

OKC just beat the Spurs handily in 2016 WITHOUT Horford, why would the Spurs be able to turn it around on them with Manu and Parker one year older, and basically all improvement coming from Kawhi?

[jalengreen]

To me, it seems like a question of what are the odds the Warriors win, even with this change. That question depends on what the Warriors do with their SF position? Do they keep HB, do they get an upgrade, a downgrade, etc.

I think it's a little strange to assume that the Warriors would be the favorites in 2017 anyway after they'd just lost to the Cavs (and for all we know, could've lost to the Cavs one year prior as well depending on injuries).

Without Durant to GSW happening, the Cavs would undoubtedly be the 2017 favorite as defending champs, and you'd put an OKC with Horford and Oladipo at LEAST on par with the Warriors imo.

Vegas doesnt tend to be moved by single results like that all that much FWIW. Plenty of people found it odd that the 49ers opened as Super Bowl favorites over the Chiefs for next year despite having just lost to them, but that game didn’t change how good they were.

Though tbf the Cavs were, like the current 49ers, in the far inferior conference. So it’s possible they’d be favorites because of that (lower likelihood of being knocked out before the finals/sb could result in a team being the favorites even if they wouldnt be favored in an eventual finals/sb matchup)