parsnips33 wrote:Well production and impact seem a lot more contextual than some platonic idea of "goodness". Like tsherkin pointed out, a guy might be maintaining or getting better even but his impact relative to the rest of the league could be worse, or his production might look different depending on who else is on the team.
Maybe trying to get at pure "goodness" in a vacuum is foolish anyways, but it seems distinct from what you are talking about unless I'm mistaken
Yeah, I mean, it also depends on details like HOW a player executes their game, right? And the roster context in which they're playing.
If you look at someone like Jordan, his statistical peak is (by many measures) somewhere between 24 and 27. He had the first of his three .300+ WS/48 seasons at 24, in his MVP/DPOY season. He had another in 90/91 and his last in 95/96. 88-91 was also his peak for efficiency. An athletic slasher with a slowly developing team, working on his jumper and his post game, learning how to deal with physical defenses, etc. Slowing league pace affecting him some but maintaining separation through guile, ability and still-impressive physical tools in his early 30s.
But that's one specific player type (skilled athletic slasher), including a skill development arc, and on pretty good rosters.
Karl Malone, for example, was basically a 27/10/4.5 guy on 60% in 1997, at the age of 33 (2nd in the MVP race). That was also arguably his BEST season. He was never a DOMINANT run/jump athlete, but he had an immense power post game, developed his jumper and passing, and worked well inside an offense which was advanced in its spacing and run very well by John Stockton. And as a PnR big, he was a nightmare. He even adapted to Chicago reasonably well after the 97 Finals (which were a disaster for him) and was much better in the 98 Finals.
Different player type, evolution in his style of play (but with retention of his earlier tools), different aging profile. And of course his RS efficiency was monstrous in the late 90s as the league slowed down and saw league average efficiency tanking out. He had a very graceful aging profile. Stockton, for that matter, did as well, though it's harder to see given his miniscule shooting volume and his low MPG. He maintained exceptionally well pretty much until the end, with stamina and recovery being his largest barriers as a result of his skill profile.
Kareem is another example of someone who aged very well. Skinnier dude, but highly skilled. Didn't play a particularly athletic game. Not that he couldn't, I mean he had some face-up action with the Bucks and he did his thing when his volume load was larger for sure, but he aged gracefully because he had a highly-developed skill game and was quite capable of working well off of a dynamic guard (and had the luxury of playing next to Magic, which likely helped a ton with his longevity).
Lebron, too. He's had LARGE evolutions in his game. If that dude could hit FTs like he did from 09-13, he'd be even more monstrous, particularly after dropping 41% from 3 (and 40% on 5+ above-break 3s per game in the playoffs).
Now, those are all players well beyond Klay's tier, but they're dudes who showcase different aging profiles. Different roster support contexts. Different league environments, and games which translated well across large blocks of league history. So it illustrates the idea that age-only examination of a player goes only so far.
Ohayo, of course, was talking about peak production, and sure enough, we typically see that in the first third or so of a player's career. High usage, maximal athletic tools, typically more heath/resilience/faster recovery, it makes sense.
In Klay's case, though, he's an off-ball guy who shoots well, so if you feed him a steady diet of 3s (especially corner 3s), you're very likely to get a 57-59% TS guy with some consistency, varying only in volume, depending on how much he's able to get fed around the rim. If he's able to get some easy transition buckets to help pad his at-rim numbers, then he likely leans more towards that 59-60% range, especially with higher corner proportion (unsurprising, given the obvious relationship between the short corner and passing support + higher percentages).
I dunno. I don't think age has a TON to do with it. I think health, usage, and league context are more specifically the issue with him.
) but instead comes out after a scoreless first half and just wipes out the Rockets. Him and Draymond dancing the tango down the stretch in the 4th. Just brilliant