Defensive Player of the Year
1. Scottie Pippen
2. David Robinson
3. Patrick EwingLast year I voted for Pippen as the standout defender on an unexpected #2 (and -4) defence. Now he is the backbone defender of a title-winning #1 defence. And in a year where every contending big other than Ewing was a postseason disappointment, I am much more confident in and comfortable with this choice than I was last year.
The Knicks remain a top five regular season defence, but that is not why I have Ewing on the ballot. After all, he is still not “better” than Hakeem in most defensive scenarios. But Hakeem, after upsetting the favoured Lakers, has the worst series of his career on both ends. The difference with 1993 is stark; that year, Hakeem was unlucky to not win despite a grossly inferior team, but this year, his team was better than in 1993 and he nevertheless was not even close to winning. Still, Hakeem is not alone in his disappointing exit. Here are the Bulls’ estimated offensive ratings by series:
Heat = 118.1 (3-0)
Knicks = 104.4 (4-1)
Magic (no Grant) = 117.6 (4-0)
Sonics = 110.4 (4-2)
The Heat defence was led by Alonzo Mourning. I initially intended to vote him third for his excellent defensive signals: the Heat go 39-31 with him and 3-9 without him this year, and in year-to-year shifts, we see the Hornets collapse defensively (-2.2 —> +4.2) and miss the playoffs, while we see the Heat defence spike (+1.6 —> -3.8). However, if those defensive signals do not translate to the postseason, what are they ultimately worth. And
that is where Ewing separates himself. 1996 is the last time Ewing is taken out by Jordan, and in turn he makes the Bulls work for their win one last time.
Speaking of rivalries, Robinson is facing the Jazz for the second of three times. How do the Jazz fare against their competition?
Blazers = 113.0 (3-2)
Spurs = 113.2 (4-2)
Sonics = 104.4 (3-4)
Oh, look at that, yet again the worst performance. Now, saving grace here is that it is not an outlier worst, but if Robinson was the beneficiary of strong postseason defensive results last year (ignoring how that ultimately frames his performance as a “successful” face-to-foot defence against Hakeem), then we should highlight the lack of any defensive success this year. Even against the Suns in the first round, the Spurs’ defence was nothing special. For anyone who cares about the postseason, there is little to reward here. I will give him his due for the regular season, but standards really should be higher for someone often argued as a top three to five defender
all-time.
Offensive Player of the Year
1. Penny Hardaway
2. Michael Jordan
3. Terrell BrandonI will highlight Penny in the Player of the Year section, where he takes second almost exclusively because of how impressed I am with his offence. Jordan is asked to do comparatively less: his playmaking load is the lowest it has ever been, and Rodman’s addition spikes the Bulls’ offensive rebounding rate to best in the league. However, as the league’s most voluminous and least turnover-prone scorer on a #1 title-winning offence, he is an easy choice for second (and the next two years I will likely have him first because of how I have been penalising missed time).
Reggie Miller would take this spot but for the postseason injury. Coupled with KJ’s and Shaq’s missed time, that opens space for Terrell Brandon, who quietly has one of the more surprising offensive seasons I have ever seen. The Cavaliers had a +3.8 relative offensive rating in games Brandon played, which is a strong mark for a team with a decent but unspectacular offensive supporting cast. Because the 1996 Cavaliers are the
slowest team in league history, Brandon is in the top ten for points among starters per possession, is in the top fifteen for assists among starters per possession, and is the second highest usage guard in the league after Jordan. Brandon’s turnover rate is also more outstanding than it initially appears: by Trex’s modified turnover percentage, Brandon is down at 6%, which I think is basically unprecedented for a point guard (Trex, please let me know if I miscalculated or otherwise used an outdated formula). As an outlier individual peak season in a year where several other top ballot contenders missed significant time, that is enough to slide in to third place.
Player of the Year
1. Michael Jordan
2. Penny Hardaway
3. Karl Malone
4. Gary Payton
5. David RobinsonOnly real criticism of Jordan this season is that he struggled in the last three games of the Finals. Might be meaningful if another ballot contender had been more impressive in the postseason, but none were.
Penny’s placement is probably aggressive (no one joined my top five vote for him last year, so evidently I am higher on him than the rest of this bloc), but when it comes down to it I am more impressed by him being the leader of a 60-win conference finalist with Shaq missing a third of the year than I am by Malone losing a tight conference finals with a horrific Game 7.
Proxy wrote:Penny 28 games without Shaq in '96
-Averaged 27 per 75 on +10 rTS%
-50 win pace(+3 team without Shaq and with Horace)
-+4 team rORTG
Other stuff from that year:
A top 50 RS AuPM/g peak OAT, top 5 in the league in 1996
#1 in the league according to Pollack's on/off estimates(+17.1) - on a side note the team numbers in *1995* being so similar makes me believe there was maybe some starter substitution stuff going on for those teams, but this year's result was still without Shaq 1/4 of the year so i'd say it's mostly fair
The 96 Magic finished with a rORTG of +5.3 even with Shaq missing 28 games
Shaq missed 28, Horace Grant missed 19. The Magic were a +10 ish SRS team with both iirc...with an offensive rating of 117.6!
After Penny sliced up the Bulls in the 1996 ECF and Shaq departed, the following year they were a respectable +3 team with Horace Grant again (+3 ORtg), only this time Penny missed 21 games and without him the Magic were a -6.5 SRS team w/ a -7.9 ORtg.
The Orlando Magic had a stellar +7.7 PS Ortg from 95-97 with what i'd call close to 1A 1B situation on offense
That said, Malone played respectably well until then, which is why he stays at third.
I will let Robinson keep a spot on the ballot because he at least manages a more relevant postseason than he did in 1994, but all the criticisms I have previously expressed are still present, as are all the thorough criticisms offered back in the 2010 project (not that most people here seem to read them). On offence he looks like a slightly improved 2009 Finals Dwight Howard when matched up with any remotely stout post defenders, and on defence he falters whenever an opposing offence can successfully pull him from the basket or otherwise demand that he square up by himself against a stouter post scorer. Consistently one of the most infuriating postseason disappointments I have ever seen.
Then I look at Payton. This year he has made a leap as a scorer, which in turn has made him a much more dangerous playmaker and creator. He is dangerous in transition and backing down guards in the half-court. He has established some fantastic chemistry with Kemp, and we see what happens to Kemp’s scoring when he leaves the Sonics in just over a year. And while he is one of the most unjustly celebrated defenders in league history… he does put a lot of pressure on Jordan in the Finals and keeps up his value to his team even as his offence struggles against the most monstrous collection of perimetre defensive talent we may ever see. To me, he and Robinson may as well be on the same postseason tier this year, and Payton accomplished much more, so he goes ahead.
