https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2439808
Now we do a winning one:
As it so happens, this game has actually been tracked before, using a different tracking system.
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2433040
Djoker wrote:dFG%: Starks 0/2, Mason 0/3, Ewing 0/2
Steals: 2
Deflections: 2
Effective Rim Contests: 7
Blocks: 2
The Bulls starting trapping the Knicks a lot including in the backcourt. Jordan had a super active game on defense including a lot of intelligent roaming and he managed to contest an impressive 7 shots at the rim effectively, including preventing 3 baskets by Mason and 2 by Ewing. He was particularly devastating with his traps as well, forcing the Knicks into several turnovers through errant passes and one backcourt violation on Starks as well. Best defensive game of the series.
Grade: A.
This provides us a novel opportunity
Ontop of tracking a game that, at least by the original tracking, seems like a positive outlier (A grade, 7 rim contests in a series Jordan otherwise never crossed 3), this also gives us an opportunity to see how different systems interpret the same footage.
Djoker said the first half was the best defensive half Jordan played in the series, so we’ll do the first 40 possessions and see what turns up.
Here are the countables we’re going to use:
Spoiler:
There is a great deal more grey area here than with the creation stuff I think. Vetting and perhaps some discussion on what should be counted or not counted is welcomed. If you just want to see the numbers you can control+F for “Tally and Analysis”.
Let’s begin.
Possession 1 - 36:56
Jordan waits on the weakside and then comes strong side to meet Ewing but is late, not that it is likely to have mattered.
(Jordan - 1 PP, 1 IPP)
Tsherkin pointed out that Jordan didn’t really have an opportunity to anything due to illegal defense.
Possession 2 - 37:50
Jordan is at least a co-primary here shadowing Starks as he drives. Armstrong fouls.
(Jordan - 1 PPD)
Possession 3 - 39:10
Jordan follows Stark starting above the key and walking behind him to the baseline where he, and accordingly Jordan, linger a moment. Then Mason screens Jordan buying enough time to force a switch and put Starks on Pippen. Mason backs Jordan into the paint and Starks bricks a well-contested jumper.
Possession 4 - 39:40
Jordan comes towards Stark who pauses before Horace takes over the press. Starks then lobs it to the open man when Grant comes to help. Strong IA (1).
Possession 5 - 40:07
Starks lobs it over Jordan to Ewing.
Possession 6 - 40:37
Knicks break. Jordan runs back and then starts at the top of the key. Ball gets to Ewing who circles around for a drive. Jordan moves to help but Ewing’s too quick. Ewing barrels into traffic and loses the ball.
Possession 7 - 41:30
Jordan helps in the back-court press and then spends a few seconds facing off Starks. Starks passes it. That’s enough for me to Mark MJ as at least a co-primary, if mostly by default.
(Jordan - 2 PPD)
Possession 8 - 42:27
Jordan is mostly off-screen as the Bulls full-court press forces an early turnover. Unfortunately with the Bulls intended Paint-Protectors providing effective back-court pressure, Jordan does seem to spend the most time in the paint and near the basket here. It’s hard to imagine Jordan is providing deterrence here, even in a passive sense, but consistency dictates I pretend he is, giving Jordan what might well and truly be the most fraudulent usage credit in the history of this tracking system.
(Jordan - 1 PP)
Possession 9 - 43:48
With the Bulls paint-protectors pressing in the backcourt and above the key and Starks walking towards the basket Jordan spends some time in the paint before Grant comes back to take over. Jordan then gets stuck on a screen allowing Stark to get free and force Jordan on a bigger attacker. He walks to the free-throw before contesting Ewing late. He bricks. This is now the 2nd possession where the Knicks have had Starks draw Jordan near the basket and then used a screen to force a switch. Unlike last time, he gets badly stuck. Not really a primary but he spends time in the paint and right at the basket so for the sake of objectivity/consistency I think I’ll have to count him as one.
(Jordan - 2 PP)
Possession 10 - 45:16
Jordan meets Stark half-court and stays with him to the key where he bounces it to Ewing. Jordan is about to double when Ewing turns in drawing a 2nd defender and creating an easy dunk.
(Jordan - 3 PPD)
Possession 11 - 46:01
Jordan is one of 4 Bulls defenders above the half-way line and follows Stark as the Knicks navigate pressure from MJ’s teammates. Jordan stops at the free-throw line for a split second with the paint momentarily unoccupied. The ball is thrown to Stark who Pippen funnels towards Jordan. Starks squeezes himself through both to hand the ball off to Mason who awkwardly swings it to Ewing who nearly drops the pass. Jordan comes around and makes two swat from the weakside catching nothing but air. The second swat takes him out of the play and Ewing tries and fails to force it in over traffic.
Possession 12 - 48:25
Jordan is on Blackman as the ball crosses half-court and then loses him badly jumping to take himself out of the action for the 2nd possession in a row. Orlando is trapped and forced to reset by kicking it out to Greg Anthony (?) who Jordan funnels into traffic. Anthony dishes it to Mason who drives but is forced to re-alter his shot by Grant. It’s unclear whether it’s Jordan or Grant who gets a hand to the ball but someone does and Ewing grabs the rebound and dunks it on both. Jordan would not get the PP even assuming the block but he does get the PPD.
(Jordan - 4 PPD)
Possession 13 - 49:24
Jordan chases whoever receives the inbound (too grainy to tell who) and delays him mid-post until help arrives. The attacker kicks it out to remove the helper and gets the ball back. Jordan swings his arms to deny the entry pass but the ball gets to Mason who spins in and wins a foul on Cartwright.
(Jordan - 5 PPD)
Possession 14 - 51:30
Jordan watches Purdue foul helping from the weakside.
Possession 15 - 52:40
Jordan switches onto Blackman and strips him.
(Jordan - 6 PPD, 1 EPPD)
Possession 16 - 53:41
Jordan is the primary here by default being the first player to apply pressure to the inbound recipient and then spending the rest of the possession as the closest chaser on whoever had the ball.
(Jordan - 7 PPD)
Possession 17 - 54:14
New York breaks with Jordan on the floor and the ball goes to Blackman (Jordan’s man). Jordan hurries back just to watch Blackman hit a jumper. Would get a secondary usage credit here if I was counting those.
Possession 18 - 54:54
Jordan gets back and floats around the free-throw line. Mason hits a jumper.
Possession 19 - 55:18
Jordan hangs at the elbow watching Blackman. Purdue seals off Ewing letting Jordan secure the defensive Board off the second free-throw.
Possession 20 - 57:35
Jordan hangs by the basket posted on Mason on the weakside while Ewing posts-up on Purdue and wins a foul. Probably the secondary here though Grant comes back to help on the Ewing’s attempt. The Bulls go to a three-guard lineup after the first-free throw.
Possession 21 - 59:07
First possession Jordan is the outright primary paint gu. Mason posts-up on Jordan backing him into the paint prompting two chicago teammates to move to help: Paxson is called for illegal defense. Jordan then struggles to deny Mason a favorable position in and around the basket. Will hold off from giving him an IPP since he’s never directly burned.
(Jordan - 3 PP)
Possession 22 - 1:00:45
Jordan gets a primary here mainly by default. Seems to be struggling with his assignment but is momentarily able to get in front of Mason and the ball-handler throws it to Rolando who travels. Jordan does lose position immediately after but I guess that counts as deterrence.
(Jordan - 4 PP)
(Jordan subbed out)
(Jordan returns)
Possession 23 - 1:05:14
With Grant rushing out to trap Ewing at the sideline, Jordan ends up on an island in the paint when the trap gets beat. Jordan first gets blown by Greg Anthony who misses an open layup. Then he and Paxson get beat by Davis for the rebound. Luckily Davis drops the ball and it’s a Chicago possession.
(Jordan - 5 PP, 1 IPP)
Possession 24 - 1:08:15
Jordan games an IA off the inbound (2) with Grant funnelling Smith into the driving lane opposite from Jordan. It’s a breakdown for the metric as Smith would have driven on MJ without Grant’s interference, but Jordan is on the side with less defenders and Smith ends up going on the side with more. Jordan helps on the drive from behind and Smith is called for an offensive foul.
Possession 25 - 1:10:20
Jordan watches from the edge of the paint as Anthony drives and scores on Williams.
Possession 26 - 1:10:31
Jordan hangs around the edge of the paint and watches Oakley backdoor Grant for a layup.
Possession 27 - 1:12:23
Jordan picks up Starks but gets caught on a screen. Starks goes around and hits a jumper. Ineffective perimeter defending but as a consolation MJ gets a weak IA (3) with Chicago leaving the area under the basket empty when Starks decides to drive..
(Jordan - 8 PPD, 1 IPPD)
Possession 28 - 1:12:47
Jordan games another weak IA (4) with Chicago again leaving the paint empty. I think we’ve found another loophole with this countable. Jordan is hit with a screen but this time a teammate helps. Jordan then comes back to help on the drive. On the inbound the intended pass recipient does a split and Jordan comes over to wave his hands at the inbounder before a time-out is called. On the second inbound Jordan loses his man (Starks) on a screen but his teammate follows buying Jordan enough time to recover and help. Starks manages to squeeze through Jordan and another defender but loses the ball right after.
(Jordan - 9 PPD)
Possession 29 - 1:16:15
Jordan hangs above the free-throw line watching Starks and a Knickerbocker misses his jumper. With Grant and Pippen in the way of New York’s bigs. Jordan comes back for an easy rebound.
Possession 30 - 1:16:30
Jordan is on stark who he walks with towards the paint. Starks then runs to the opposite elbow and catches the ball before lobbing it over MJ to Ewing who wins free-throws.
Possession 31 - 1:18:13
Jordan picks up Starks and then invites him to try his luck against the other Bulls. Starks takes Jordan up on the challenge and Grant swats his layup attempt out of bounds. Jordan is on Starks when he briefly holds the ball and swats late on a drive. Jordan watches from the top of the key as the Knicks get the ball again and swing it to Ewing who drills a jumper.
(Jordan - 10 PPD)
Possession 32 - 1:21:13
Jordan provides a bit of cover as Pippen pressures Stark half-court. Stark throws it over and Jordan jogs to the key as the play develops. After a shot-attempt Jordan hurries back to try and secure a rebound on the weakside. But Mason gets the board and putback.
Possession 33 - 1:22:03
Effective help from Jordan here. First he helps on a drive. Then as the ball is kicked out to Starks who Jordan gets around a screen to stay connected to. Jordan funnels Starks into help forcing a kickout. The ball is swung to the other side and Jordan switches sides to waits behind two of his teammates in case someone gets through. No one does and the play ends with a low-quality jumper. Cartwright seals off the opposing big, allowing Jordan to grab another free rebound.
(Jordan - 11 PPD, 2 EPPD)
Possession 34 - 1:24:10
Jordan briefly picks up Stark before telling Cartwright to switch with him, resulting in MJ covering up a passing lane. Jordan then chases Starks from behind as he drives into traffic. The ball ends up with Rivers who misses the jumper. Oakley grabs the rebound and Jordan fouls.
Possession 35 - 1:26:15
Jordan starts the possession on the ground but gets back in time to help force a jump-ball with a weakside block. New York wins possession and Jordan hovers at the free-throw line before moving to help on Ewing at the post. Ewing spins the other way but his jumper misses. Jordan tips it away from Oakley to help his team secure the possession.
Jordan’s the clear-cut secondary here in terms of paint-usage after Grant.
Possession 36 - 1:27:30
New York breaks with Jordan chasing Starks from behind. Starks throws it forward to Mason. Jordan comes for another weakside block and gets a hand to it but Mason converts anyway.
Possession 37 - 1:28:30
Jordan is walking with Stark across the baseline when the timeout is called. Jordan then watches from the edge of the paint as Grant and Cartwright intercept Ewing and foul him.
Possession 38 - 1:30:31
Jordan spends the possession around the weak-side of the paint providing cover in case Grant gets beat or is forced to come out. He isn’t and the possession ends with a Stark miss and Grant sealing his man to secure himself a rebound.
Possession 39 - 1:31:41
Jordan starts the possession on Davis who, like Starks, is followed onto the baseline. This time when Hubert runs around to get free Jordan bumps into two screens and decides to provide extra cover inside instead of following his assignment. Starks drives into a wall and is stripped with the ball tossed to Jordan for the break.
Possession 40 - 1:43:44
Jordan watches Starks commit a back-court violation as the Bulls start the second half with a full-court trap.
Tally and Analysis
Paint-Protection - Jordan
Spoiler:
Perimeter Defense - Jordan
Spoiler:
During Jordan’s first 40 possessions, I gave him, 5 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 0 and ineffective in 1. Jordan also was given 11 possessions as a primary or co–primary perimeter defender, of which he was deemed effective in 2 and ineffective in 1. Additionally, MJ was given 3 Irrational Avoidances. This means per Possession, MJ averaged, 0.125 PPs, 0.00 EPPs, 0.025 IPPs, 0.275 PPDs, 0.05 EPPDs, 0.025 IPPDs, and 0.05 IAs.
For comparison here is how the other three players tracked with this system faired:
Spoiler:
Here’s how other players fared in terms of Paint-usage (only Duncan and Drob (1999 finals) had efficacy tracked)
Spoiler:
So how does “A” Jordan look? Well, better than KIdd IMO. By the numbers it’s more mixed with Kidd racking up more effective usage while Jordan racks up more total usage, especially on the paint. But Kidd does rack up more ineffective usage as well and beyond that I think Jordan had more effective secondary usage I didn’t count like his two weakside blocks. Keeping in mind that an “A” Jordan game was compared to a mostly random Kidd game, I’m siding with Jordan here. Opposing Personnel probably skews this (Duncan lol), but MJ was alot more effective in the paint and used more.
This game was also an outlier in terms of “rim-contests” and that seems to track with this system where he offered more paint-protection in these 40 possessions than the other 80 tracked (40 from 91, 40 from 88) combined. It seems plausible there was a perimeter trade-off given the situational context of Chicago throwing Grant and Pippen forward to pressure the backcourt more, but I did not track perimeter defending for those other two games (might do the 88 one next). It’s also the most paint-protection by usage and my eye a guard has offered in this tracking, unless you include Reid from 86 as one.
And that’s where the positive comparisons stop. To put this delicately, lmfao at putting this man in the same sentence as Lebron (at least if this is really an “A” showing). With the exceptions of IAs (MJ 3, LBJ 2), 2009 Lebron’s tracking torched him across the board and vs 2007 the IAs became a gigantic gulf in Lebron’s favor in exchange for superficial paint-protecting parity (5 to 5). A deeper dive really just makes things worse. IAs are intended to capture when an offense or attacker are avoiding a defender. Jordan’s 2nd IA came from the exact opposite scenario, with the attacker wanting to attack Jordan and MJ’s own teammate forcing him to drive against someone else. Jordan’s first 2 PPs came from possessions where the paint-protectors were upcourt doing POA defense and the possession ended before they could swap back with Jordan guarding…no one (possession 8), a guard who was planning to go back to the top of the key (possession 9). It also wasn’t a great look for Jordan, comparatively, as a screen-navigator. While a 22 year old Lebron was repeatedly fighting over multiple screens from multiple giants to stay attached to Tony Parker, Jordan is out here getting caught on love-taps. There’s also the matter of opponent strategy. While the Spurs reset their offense again and again so they could aide Parker as he ran away from his life, and even Dwight would reconsider when their assignment was Lebron rather than Ilgauskas…The Knicks seemed quite content with MJ on Anthony Mason, repeatedly forcing that switch by having guards pull MJ into the paint before setting light screens. You would think POA would be advantage Jordan, but Lebron did much better picking up Tony Parker and Alston than Jordan did picking up Starks
Not going to bother with a Hakeem comparison.
This is also the first game since I started using this new defensive system where Grant comes out ahead of Pippen in terms of paint-usage. He was also the most involved trapper and I would say during these 40 possessions Chicago’s defensive anchor. My prior has been that grant/pippen were tied in terms of paint-protection and pippen had the advantage at the perimeter and while tracking so far still supports that it’ll be interesting to see if that maintains as more games get looked at.
Miscellaneous
Differentiated between “weak”’ and “strong” IAs as promised though I’d want to see more examples of them being a high-volume phenomena (like with 2007 Lebron) before I commit to listing the two separately
If I do start making it an “official” thing here is what distinguishes strong and weak:
Spoiler:
Will probably want to give this a test-run at some point
Spoiler:
Will stay on Jordan specifically focusing on games people consider his best (will make a thread asking this but feel free to make suggestions here).
