1993 Jordan Conference Finals Defensive Tracking: Defensive Dominance?

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1993 Jordan Conference Finals Defensive Tracking: Defensive Dominance? 

Post#1 » by OhayoKD » Wed Feb 26, 2025 4:04 am

We did a losing conference finalist last time
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2439808
Now we do a winning one:


As it so happens, this game has actually been tracked before, using a different tracking system.
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=2433040
Djoker wrote:dFG%: Starks 0/2, Mason 0/3, Ewing 0/2
Steals: 2
Deflections: 2
Effective Rim Contests: 7
Blocks: 2
The Bulls starting trapping the Knicks a lot including in the backcourt. Jordan had a super active game on defense including a lot of intelligent roaming and he managed to contest an impressive 7 shots at the rim effectively, including preventing 3 baskets by Mason and 2 by Ewing. He was particularly devastating with his traps as well, forcing the Knicks into several turnovers through errant passes and one backcourt violation on Starks as well. Best defensive game of the series.

Grade: A.

This provides us a novel opportunity

Ontop of tracking a game that, at least by the original tracking, seems like a positive outlier (A grade, 7 rim contests in a series Jordan otherwise never crossed 3), this also gives us an opportunity to see how different systems interpret the same footage.

Djoker said the first half was the best defensive half Jordan played in the series, so we’ll do the first 40 possessions and see what turns up.

Here are the countables we’re going to use:
Spoiler:
Paint-Protection. A lot of ink has been spilled arguing for it as the singularly most important component of an individual defender’s ability to help his team prevent the other guys from scoring. It’s also an aspect of the game that is poorly quantified, especially pre-data ball. Blocks are by and large the primary measure people use, but a look at usage (rim-load, measured by PPs (Primary Protections)) reveals that even players who offer very little rim-protection can be made to look like centerpieces if one limits their evaluation to counting how often contact is made with the ball:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=113791345#p113791345

That said, I think rim-load has a glaring blind-spot. What if the reason a player is used as a paint-protector…because the opponent wants them to be used as one?

Corzine and Oakley both were the primary or co-primary paint protectors on a boatload of possessions above. But is Corzine’s relativity to Oakley there the Bull’s doing, or their own? Jokic spends alot of time defending the paint, even compared to other bigs. Is he a great rim-protector? Or is he just being hunted by opposing offenses?

To answer these queries, I present the latest product of Eye-Test, Inc:

Irrational Avoidances (IA).

The following conditions must be met to rack up an Irrational Avoidance…

1) More of your team’s defenders are on the opposing side of the floor for a sequence (There can be multiple sequences per possession)
2) Despite this the attacker/attacking team chooses to attack the side with more defenders
3) This decision is made after a reset or in the half-court/semi-transition

Note, “the floor” here really describes the area of space a set of defenders covers, not the literal floor. Additionally the sides are determined using the vantage point of the initial ball-handler. If you can imagine a symmetric line being drawn from the ball-handler’s POV to the basket…being to the left or right of said line determines what side you’re on. I will also exclusively look at how a sequence starts.

A “sequence” ends whenever there is a pause in the ball-handlers movement or the possession finishes.



Here’s what we’re adding:

EPP - Effective primary protections - This is when a PP is deemed effective
IPP - Ineffective Primary Protections - This is when a PP is deemed ineffective

PPDs - Primary Perimeter defendings - This credits a player as the primary or co-primary perimeter defender for a possession

EPPD - Effective Primary Perimeter defendings - When a PPD is deemed effective
IPPD - Ineffective Primary Perimeter defendings - When a PPD is deemed ineffective



There is a great deal more grey area here than with the creation stuff I think. Vetting and perhaps some discussion on what should be counted or not counted is welcomed. If you just want to see the numbers you can control+F for “Tally and Analysis”.

Let’s begin.


Possession 1 - 36:56

Jordan waits on the weakside and then comes strong side to meet Ewing but is late, not that it is likely to have mattered.

(Jordan - 1 PP, 1 IPP)


Tsherkin pointed out that Jordan didn’t really have an opportunity to anything due to illegal defense.

Possession 2 - 37:50

Jordan is at least a co-primary here shadowing Starks as he drives. Armstrong fouls.

(Jordan - 1 PPD)

Possession 3 - 39:10

Jordan follows Stark starting above the key and walking behind him to the baseline where he, and accordingly Jordan, linger a moment. Then Mason screens Jordan buying enough time to force a switch and put Starks on Pippen. Mason backs Jordan into the paint and Starks bricks a well-contested jumper.


Possession 4 - 39:40

Jordan comes towards Stark who pauses before Horace takes over the press. Starks then lobs it to the open man when Grant comes to help. Strong IA (1).

Possession 5 - 40:07

Starks lobs it over Jordan to Ewing.

Possession 6 - 40:37

Knicks break. Jordan runs back and then starts at the top of the key. Ball gets to Ewing who circles around for a drive. Jordan moves to help but Ewing’s too quick. Ewing barrels into traffic and loses the ball.

Possession 7 - 41:30

Jordan helps in the back-court press and then spends a few seconds facing off Starks. Starks passes it. That’s enough for me to Mark MJ as at least a co-primary, if mostly by default.


(Jordan - 2 PPD)

Possession 8 - 42:27

Jordan is mostly off-screen as the Bulls full-court press forces an early turnover. Unfortunately with the Bulls intended Paint-Protectors providing effective back-court pressure, Jordan does seem to spend the most time in the paint and near the basket here. It’s hard to imagine Jordan is providing deterrence here, even in a passive sense, but consistency dictates I pretend he is, giving Jordan what might well and truly be the most fraudulent usage credit in the history of this tracking system.

(Jordan - 1 PP)

Possession 9 - 43:48

With the Bulls paint-protectors pressing in the backcourt and above the key and Starks walking towards the basket Jordan spends some time in the paint before Grant comes back to take over. Jordan then gets stuck on a screen allowing Stark to get free and force Jordan on a bigger attacker. He walks to the free-throw before contesting Ewing late. He bricks. This is now the 2nd possession where the Knicks have had Starks draw Jordan near the basket and then used a screen to force a switch. Unlike last time, he gets badly stuck. Not really a primary but he spends time in the paint and right at the basket so for the sake of objectivity/consistency I think I’ll have to count him as one.

(Jordan - 2 PP)

Possession 10 - 45:16

Jordan meets Stark half-court and stays with him to the key where he bounces it to Ewing. Jordan is about to double when Ewing turns in drawing a 2nd defender and creating an easy dunk.

(Jordan - 3 PPD)

Possession 11 - 46:01

Jordan is one of 4 Bulls defenders above the half-way line and follows Stark as the Knicks navigate pressure from MJ’s teammates. Jordan stops at the free-throw line for a split second with the paint momentarily unoccupied. The ball is thrown to Stark who Pippen funnels towards Jordan. Starks squeezes himself through both to hand the ball off to Mason who awkwardly swings it to Ewing who nearly drops the pass. Jordan comes around and makes two swat from the weakside catching nothing but air. The second swat takes him out of the play and Ewing tries and fails to force it in over traffic.

Possession 12 - 48:25

Jordan is on Blackman as the ball crosses half-court and then loses him badly jumping to take himself out of the action for the 2nd possession in a row. Orlando is trapped and forced to reset by kicking it out to Greg Anthony (?) who Jordan funnels into traffic. Anthony dishes it to Mason who drives but is forced to re-alter his shot by Grant. It’s unclear whether it’s Jordan or Grant who gets a hand to the ball but someone does and Ewing grabs the rebound and dunks it on both. Jordan would not get the PP even assuming the block but he does get the PPD.

(Jordan - 4 PPD)

Possession 13 - 49:24

Jordan chases whoever receives the inbound (too grainy to tell who) and delays him mid-post until help arrives. The attacker kicks it out to remove the helper and gets the ball back. Jordan swings his arms to deny the entry pass but the ball gets to Mason who spins in and wins a foul on Cartwright.

(Jordan - 5 PPD)

Possession 14 - 51:30

Jordan watches Purdue foul helping from the weakside.

Possession 15 - 52:40

Jordan switches onto Blackman and strips him.

(Jordan - 6 PPD, 1 EPPD)

Possession 16 - 53:41

Jordan is the primary here by default being the first player to apply pressure to the inbound recipient and then spending the rest of the possession as the closest chaser on whoever had the ball.

(Jordan - 7 PPD)

Possession 17 - 54:14

New York breaks with Jordan on the floor and the ball goes to Blackman (Jordan’s man). Jordan hurries back just to watch Blackman hit a jumper. Would get a secondary usage credit here if I was counting those.

Possession 18 - 54:54
Jordan gets back and floats around the free-throw line. Mason hits a jumper.

Possession 19 - 55:18

Jordan hangs at the elbow watching Blackman. Purdue seals off Ewing letting Jordan secure the defensive Board off the second free-throw.

Possession 20 - 57:35

Jordan hangs by the basket posted on Mason on the weakside while Ewing posts-up on Purdue and wins a foul. Probably the secondary here though Grant comes back to help on the Ewing’s attempt. The Bulls go to a three-guard lineup after the first-free throw.


Possession 21 - 59:07

First possession Jordan is the outright primary paint gu. Mason posts-up on Jordan backing him into the paint prompting two chicago teammates to move to help: Paxson is called for illegal defense. Jordan then struggles to deny Mason a favorable position in and around the basket. Will hold off from giving him an IPP since he’s never directly burned.

(Jordan - 3 PP)

Possession 22 - 1:00:45

Jordan gets a primary here mainly by default. Seems to be struggling with his assignment but is momentarily able to get in front of Mason and the ball-handler throws it to Rolando who travels. Jordan does lose position immediately after but I guess that counts as deterrence.

(Jordan - 4 PP)

(Jordan subbed out)
(Jordan returns)

Possession 23 - 1:05:14

With Grant rushing out to trap Ewing at the sideline, Jordan ends up on an island in the paint when the trap gets beat. Jordan first gets blown by Greg Anthony who misses an open layup. Then he and Paxson get beat by Davis for the rebound. Luckily Davis drops the ball and it’s a Chicago possession.

(Jordan - 5 PP, 1 IPP)

Possession 24 - 1:08:15

Jordan games an IA off the inbound (2) with Grant funnelling Smith into the driving lane opposite from Jordan. It’s a breakdown for the metric as Smith would have driven on MJ without Grant’s interference, but Jordan is on the side with less defenders and Smith ends up going on the side with more. Jordan helps on the drive from behind and Smith is called for an offensive foul.

Possession 25 - 1:10:20

Jordan watches from the edge of the paint as Anthony drives and scores on Williams.

Possession 26 - 1:10:31

Jordan hangs around the edge of the paint and watches Oakley backdoor Grant for a layup.


Possession 27 - 1:12:23

Jordan picks up Starks but gets caught on a screen. Starks goes around and hits a jumper. Ineffective perimeter defending but as a consolation MJ gets a weak IA (3) with Chicago leaving the area under the basket empty when Starks decides to drive..

(Jordan - 8 PPD, 1 IPPD)

Possession 28 - 1:12:47

Jordan games another weak IA (4) with Chicago again leaving the paint empty. I think we’ve found another loophole with this countable. Jordan is hit with a screen but this time a teammate helps. Jordan then comes back to help on the drive. On the inbound the intended pass recipient does a split and Jordan comes over to wave his hands at the inbounder before a time-out is called. On the second inbound Jordan loses his man (Starks) on a screen but his teammate follows buying Jordan enough time to recover and help. Starks manages to squeeze through Jordan and another defender but loses the ball right after.

(Jordan - 9 PPD)


Possession 29 - 1:16:15

Jordan hangs above the free-throw line watching Starks and a Knickerbocker misses his jumper. With Grant and Pippen in the way of New York’s bigs. Jordan comes back for an easy rebound.

Possession 30 - 1:16:30

Jordan is on stark who he walks with towards the paint. Starks then runs to the opposite elbow and catches the ball before lobbing it over MJ to Ewing who wins free-throws.

Possession 31 - 1:18:13

Jordan picks up Starks and then invites him to try his luck against the other Bulls. Starks takes Jordan up on the challenge and Grant swats his layup attempt out of bounds. Jordan is on Starks when he briefly holds the ball and swats late on a drive. Jordan watches from the top of the key as the Knicks get the ball again and swing it to Ewing who drills a jumper.

(Jordan - 10 PPD)

Possession 32 - 1:21:13

Jordan provides a bit of cover as Pippen pressures Stark half-court. Stark throws it over and Jordan jogs to the key as the play develops. After a shot-attempt Jordan hurries back to try and secure a rebound on the weakside. But Mason gets the board and putback.

Possession 33 - 1:22:03

Effective help from Jordan here. First he helps on a drive. Then as the ball is kicked out to Starks who Jordan gets around a screen to stay connected to. Jordan funnels Starks into help forcing a kickout. The ball is swung to the other side and Jordan switches sides to waits behind two of his teammates in case someone gets through. No one does and the play ends with a low-quality jumper. Cartwright seals off the opposing big, allowing Jordan to grab another free rebound.

(Jordan - 11 PPD, 2 EPPD)

Possession 34 - 1:24:10

Jordan briefly picks up Stark before telling Cartwright to switch with him, resulting in MJ covering up a passing lane. Jordan then chases Starks from behind as he drives into traffic. The ball ends up with Rivers who misses the jumper. Oakley grabs the rebound and Jordan fouls.

Possession 35 - 1:26:15

Jordan starts the possession on the ground but gets back in time to help force a jump-ball with a weakside block. New York wins possession and Jordan hovers at the free-throw line before moving to help on Ewing at the post. Ewing spins the other way but his jumper misses. Jordan tips it away from Oakley to help his team secure the possession.

Jordan’s the clear-cut secondary here in terms of paint-usage after Grant.

Possession 36 - 1:27:30

New York breaks with Jordan chasing Starks from behind. Starks throws it forward to Mason. Jordan comes for another weakside block and gets a hand to it but Mason converts anyway.


Possession 37 - 1:28:30

Jordan is walking with Stark across the baseline when the timeout is called. Jordan then watches from the edge of the paint as Grant and Cartwright intercept Ewing and foul him.

Possession 38 - 1:30:31

Jordan spends the possession around the weak-side of the paint providing cover in case Grant gets beat or is forced to come out. He isn’t and the possession ends with a Stark miss and Grant sealing his man to secure himself a rebound.

Possession 39 - 1:31:41

Jordan starts the possession on Davis who, like Starks, is followed onto the baseline. This time when Hubert runs around to get free Jordan bumps into two screens and decides to provide extra cover inside instead of following his assignment. Starks drives into a wall and is stripped with the ball tossed to Jordan for the break.

Possession 40 - 1:43:44

Jordan watches Starks commit a back-court violation as the Bulls start the second half with a full-court trap.


Tally and Analysis

Paint-Protection - Jordan

Spoiler:
-> 5 PPs
-> 0 EPP
-> 1 IPPs
-> 3 IAs


Perimeter Defense - Jordan

Spoiler:
-> 11 PPD
-> 2 EPPDs
-> 1 IPPDs


During Jordan’s first 40 possessions, I gave him, 5 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 0 and ineffective in 1. Jordan also was given 11 possessions as a primary or co–primary perimeter defender, of which he was deemed effective in 2 and ineffective in 1. Additionally, MJ was given 3 Irrational Avoidances. This means per Possession, MJ averaged, 0.125 PPs, 0.00 EPPs, 0.025 IPPs, 0.275 PPDs, 0.05 EPPDs, 0.025 IPPDs, and 0.05 IAs.


For comparison here is how the other three players tracked with this system faired:
Spoiler:
During Kidd’s first 40 possessions of Game 6 of the 2003 Finals, I gave him, 3 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 1 and ineffective in 1. Kidd was also given 10 possessions as a primary or co–primary perimeter defender, of which he was deemed effective in 6 and ineffective in 3. Additionally Kidd was given 2 Irrational Avoidances. This means per Possession, Kidd averaged, 0.075 PPs, 0.025 EPPs, 0.025 IPPs, 0.25 PPDs, 0.15 EPPDs, 0.075 IPPDs, and 0.05 IAs.

During Lebron’s first 40 possessions, I gave him, 10 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 2 and ineffective in 1. Lebron also was given 18 possessions as a primary or co–primary perimeter defender, of which he was deemed effective in 6 and ineffective in 3. Additionally, Lebron was given 2 Irrational Avoidances. This means per Possession, Lebron averaged, 0.25 PPs, 0.05 EPPs, 0.025 IPPs, 0.45 PPDs, 0.15 EPPDs, 0.075 IPPDs, and 0.05 IAs.

During his first 40 possessions of the 2007 Finals, I gave Lebron 5 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 3 and ineffective in 1. Lebron also was given 16 possessions as a primary or co–primary perimeter defender, of which he was deemed effective in 9 and ineffective in 3. Additionally Lebron was given 9 Irrational Avoidances. This means per Possession, Lebron averaged, 0.125 PPs, 0.075 EPPs, 0.025 IPPs, 0.4 PPDs, 0.225 EPPDs, 0.075 IPPDs, and 0.225 IAs

During Hakeem’s first 40 possessions of the 6th game of the 97 WCF, I gave him 27 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 13 and ineffective in 7. Hakeem also was given 4 possessions as a primary or co–primary perimeter defender, of which he was deemed effective in 3 and ineffective in 1. Additionally Hakeem was given 4 Irrational Avoidances. This means per Possession, Hakeem averaged, 0.675 PPs, 0.325 EPPs, 0.175 IPPs, 0.1 PPDs, 0.075 EPPDs, 0.025 IPPDs, and 0.1 IAs.


Here’s how other players fared in terms of Paint-usage (only Duncan and Drob (1999 finals) had efficacy tracked)

Spoiler:
The only other guards to have their PPs counted are Micheal Jordan, Sam Vinceint, and BJ Armstrong. Jordan tallied 3 PPs in the first 40 possessions of game 3 of the 1988 ECSF between New York and Chicago. Sam Vincient tallied 2. Jordan tallied 1 PP in the first 40 possessions of the 4th game of the 1991 ECF. Armstrong also tallied 1.

For a comparison to wings(over the first 40 defensive possessions for their respective teams), Oakley, Pippen, and Grant tallied 13, 8, and 6 PPs respectively in the aforementioned 88 game. In the aforementioned 91 game, Pippen and Grant had 14 PPs each. In the final game of the 94 ECSF between New York and Chicago, Oakley and Pippen tallied 15 PPs and Grant tallied 7. In the 86 Finals, Reid tallied 5.

During the Spurs’ first 40 defensive possessions, I gave Duncan, 21 possessions as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 6 and ineffective in 4. Robinson was given 16 PPs as a primary or co-primary rim-protector of which he was deemed effective in 8 and ineffective in 6. Both had an irrational avoidance. When they shared the court Duncan and Robinson had 17 PPs each with Duncan being deemed effective in 4 and Robinson being deemed effective in 8. Both were deemed ineffective in 4. Robinson additionally had 1 IA

For Bigs, Over 37 possessions Duncan averaged .57 PPs, 0.16 EPPs, 0.11 IPPs, and 0.03 IAs.

Over 31 possessions Robinson averaged 0.58 PPs, 0.26 EPPs, 0.13 IPPs. 0.032 IAs.

Over 22 Possessions in the final game of the 94 ECSF vs Chicago, Ewing had 13 PPs and 3 IAs giving him, per possession, .59 PPs and 1.4 IAs.


So how does “A” Jordan look? Well, better than KIdd IMO. By the numbers it’s more mixed with Kidd racking up more effective usage while Jordan racks up more total usage, especially on the paint. But Kidd does rack up more ineffective usage as well and beyond that I think Jordan had more effective secondary usage I didn’t count like his two weakside blocks. Keeping in mind that an “A” Jordan game was compared to a mostly random Kidd game, I’m siding with Jordan here. Opposing Personnel probably skews this (Duncan lol), but MJ was alot more effective in the paint and used more.

This game was also an outlier in terms of “rim-contests” and that seems to track with this system where he offered more paint-protection in these 40 possessions than the other 80 tracked (40 from 91, 40 from 88) combined. It seems plausible there was a perimeter trade-off given the situational context of Chicago throwing Grant and Pippen forward to pressure the backcourt more, but I did not track perimeter defending for those other two games (might do the 88 one next). It’s also the most paint-protection by usage and my eye a guard has offered in this tracking, unless you include Reid from 86 as one.

And that’s where the positive comparisons stop. To put this delicately, lmfao at putting this man in the same sentence as Lebron (at least if this is really an “A” showing). With the exceptions of IAs (MJ 3, LBJ 2), 2009 Lebron’s tracking torched him across the board and vs 2007 the IAs became a gigantic gulf in Lebron’s favor in exchange for superficial paint-protecting parity (5 to 5). A deeper dive really just makes things worse. IAs are intended to capture when an offense or attacker are avoiding a defender. Jordan’s 2nd IA came from the exact opposite scenario, with the attacker wanting to attack Jordan and MJ’s own teammate forcing him to drive against someone else. Jordan’s first 2 PPs came from possessions where the paint-protectors were upcourt doing POA defense and the possession ended before they could swap back with Jordan guarding…no one (possession 8), a guard who was planning to go back to the top of the key (possession 9). It also wasn’t a great look for Jordan, comparatively, as a screen-navigator. While a 22 year old Lebron was repeatedly fighting over multiple screens from multiple giants to stay attached to Tony Parker, Jordan is out here getting caught on love-taps. There’s also the matter of opponent strategy. While the Spurs reset their offense again and again so they could aide Parker as he ran away from his life, and even Dwight would reconsider when their assignment was Lebron rather than Ilgauskas…The Knicks seemed quite content with MJ on Anthony Mason, repeatedly forcing that switch by having guards pull MJ into the paint before setting light screens. You would think POA would be advantage Jordan, but Lebron did much better picking up Tony Parker and Alston than Jordan did picking up Starks

Not going to bother with a Hakeem comparison.

This is also the first game since I started using this new defensive system where Grant comes out ahead of Pippen in terms of paint-usage. He was also the most involved trapper and I would say during these 40 possessions Chicago’s defensive anchor. My prior has been that grant/pippen were tied in terms of paint-protection and pippen had the advantage at the perimeter and while tracking so far still supports that it’ll be interesting to see if that maintains as more games get looked at.

Miscellaneous

Differentiated between “weak”’ and “strong” IAs as promised though I’d want to see more examples of them being a high-volume phenomena (like with 2007 Lebron) before I commit to listing the two separately

If I do start making it an “official” thing here is what distinguishes strong and weak:

Spoiler:
As a final note, I think I’m going to make some tweaks to my tracking system starting with IAs:

1. Differentiate between “strong” and “weak” IAs. A strong IA must either have the opposite side have 4 defenders, or the player getting the IA must be directly between the ball-handler and the basket and closer to the top of the key than the sideline.


Will probably want to give this a test-run at some point
Spoiler:
2. Input a defensive counterpart for DTOS (defenders taken out) called DKI (defenders kept in) to function as an inclusive measure of help and team defense. I’ll save the details of that for another thread.

I’m feeling like doing Wade or Kawhi after I finish my Duncan tracking. Kawhi in particular might be an interesting test-run for revamped IA tracking. Wade is considered the greatest shot-blocking guard by many so it would be interesting to see if that manifests in unusually high paint-usage.




Will stay on Jordan specifically focusing on games people consider his best (will make a thread asking this but feel free to make suggestions here).
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Re: 1993 Jordan Conference Finals Defensive Tracking: Defensive Dominance? 

Post#2 » by Top10alltime » Fri Feb 28, 2025 2:23 pm

Ok great now can you do this for kareem 1971 vs wilt if you can
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Re: 1993 Jordan Conference Finals Defensive Tracking: Defensive Dominance? 

Post#3 » by capfan33 » Sun Mar 2, 2025 8:46 pm

Very interesting finally watching some of this game. The thing that stands out to me the most is Jordan, doesn’t really seem to move much? It’s not that his defense is good or bad, but he legit kind of just seems to be walking around for most of the clips.

He had a few nice possessions trapping but that was mostly his teammates, and some decent helpside contests, but overall it really doesn’t look like he’s moving a lot. Pippen and Armstrong otoh from what little I saw on the periphery are getting after it and making the Knicks life hell lol.

Also gets pushed around in the post but that’s to be expected for a guard. Didn’t really matter much with Mason.

His shot contests are also interesting, he almost always seems to come from the side as opposed to impeding the path of the offensive player, which is generally less effective, especially when he isn’t actually deflecting the ball on most of these.

It’s still a positive in absolute terms, but I think he’d have greater impact if he was actually impeding the path of the offensive player consistently as opposed to going for highlight reel blocks.

Finally I didn’t see much in the way of gambling per his reputation, which is nice. The pickpocket at half court was textbook.

Overall would give like a B- prob? Not much negative but also not a lot of positives either, just solid.
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Re: 1993 Jordan Conference Finals Defensive Tracking: Defensive Dominance? 

Post#4 » by Redmoon » Sat Mar 15, 2025 8:22 am

I followed along with this one and thought some of the possessions were mischaracterized in an excessively negative light. Additionally, there were some missed defensive plays in this tracking.

Possession 9: This is explained as Jordan getting caught in the screen but you can see Jordan calling out to Pip to switch and pick up starks. I'd assume this was part of the bulls game plan, and with the shot clock running down Jordan steps up with a contest on ewings shot which misses badly.
Possession 11: Jordan isn't momentarily unoccupied he's stopping the ball in transition. I think that's charles smith with the ball who would've gotten a free lane to the basket. Jordan then helps clog up the lane and helps a little bit on ewing.
Possession 12: Jordan still gets a rear contest which forces blackman to pump fake giving time for the rest of the defense to help. Switches onto stark and forces him into help then has solid contest at the rim. Should count as one PP here.
Possession 17: Jordan just hit a tough jumper and fell on the floor. He wasn't "just watching" it should've been the rest of his team that picks up his man on D going back.
Possession 22: Not counted as effective PP but Jordan did front Mason and prevent the initial entry pass. Considering thats where Mason thrives I'd consider that a win. Jordan “struggling” with someone as strong as Mason is to be expected.
Possession 23: The timestamp should be 1:06:53.
Completely omitted an earlier possession where Jordan helps on Ewing, and gets a block on him and secures the ball. Although the announcers credited the block to Scott williams.
Possession 28: Idk if it warrants a paint protection rating but the comment just glosses over him altering Starks shot as “Stark slips past Jordan” Jordan forced what would’ve been regular floater to a really difficult double clutch shot.
Possession 31: Block credited to Grant but it was Jordan who swats the ball away from behind. Should be an effective perimeter play.

Having said all that Jordan was really active on D this first half. Being a part of traps and giving effective help. Didn’t gamble alot and had some rim contests. In possession 8 he was just a part of the trapping team defense. Pos 9 switching with pip was intentional.
The possessions where Jordan was on Mason - the bulls had a lineup with tucker and paxson…and because of the size of the Knicks front court Jordan had to pick up Mason. Considering the 40lb size difference of course the Knicks want to get the ball to Mason..this is just common basketball sense. In those two possessions the Knicks managed to get an open Oakley jumper but Jordan was working extremely hard and prevented a post up all together.

Overall a solid D game from Jordan - not to mention a large number of creations on the other end. A grade from Djoker is deserved. Both teams were incredible defensively, I really enjoyed watching Pippin and Grant on the defensive end as well. Grant was particularly impressive.
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Re: 1993 Jordan Conference Finals Defensive Tracking: Defensive Dominance? 

Post#5 » by AEnigma » Sat Mar 15, 2025 7:55 pm

Redmoon wrote:Possession 11: Jordan isn't momentarily unoccupied he's stopping the ball in transition.

That was not the description. The paint was unoccupied, not Jordan.

Possession 17: Jordan just hit a tough jumper and fell on the floor. He wasn't "just watching" it should've been the rest of his team that picks up his man on D going back.

This is still a defensive negative. If the claim were that this evidenced some usual lapse in effort, sure, point out the preceding context, but making a tough basket does not wipe away the subsequent lack of involvement.

Overall a solid D game from Jordan - not to mention a large number of creations on the other end. A grade from Djoker is deserved.

I feel like the scale is broken if “solid = A”.
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Re: 1993 Jordan Conference Finals Defensive Tracking: Defensive Dominance? 

Post#6 » by OhayoKD » Sat Mar 15, 2025 9:35 pm

Overall a solid D game from Jordan - not to mention a large number of creations on the other end. A grade from Djoker is deserved.

Djoker's grade was defense-only, not overall. Seems your interpretation of his defense is most in line with mine. Capfan's does use the same adjective but probably has the lowest reading considering:
Capfan33 wrote:The thing is my grades are in relative terms, in absolute terms Lebron will have more impact with the same grade because he’s bigger


FWIW, here is an adjusted tally for Jordan if I count everything you highlighted as something that you think should have been credited (1 PP, 1 EPPD, 1 EPP) but wasn't.

Taking all these at face value Jordan goes from 2 to 3 EPPD boosting his per-possession average from .5 EPPD, to .75, goes from 5 PP to 6 giving boosting his PP-per-possession rate from .125 to .15., and goes from 0 EPP, to 1 EPP giving him a per-possession rate of 0.025

(Jordan did not receive an ineffective in any of the plays redmoon commented on)

Seems like we're already pretty close here.

Onto the areas of disagreement...

Three of these are just misreading

Possession 11
Redmoon wrote:Jordan isn't momentarily unoccupied he's stopping the ball in transition.

Jordan stops at the free-throw line for a split second with the paint momentarily unoccupied.

The adjective "unoccupied" is attached to the paint, not Jordan: I am noting Jordan is providing a bit of deterrence here.
Possession 17:
Jordan just hit a tough jumper and fell on the floor. He wasn't "just watching" it should've been the rest of his team that picks up his man on D going back.

Jordan hurries back just to watch

Your misquote suggests I am saying he was being lazy when the description for the possession implies the opposite.
Possession 22
Not counted as effective PP but Jordan did front Mason and prevent the initial entry pass. Considering thats where Mason thrives I'd consider that a win. Jordan “struggling” with someone as strong as Mason is to be expected.

Seems to be struggling with his assignment but is momentarily able to get in front of Mason and the ball-handler throws it to Rolando who travels.

Am I really missing a defensive play when I acknowledge it happens?

To the extent we disagree on how to assess what happened, it seems to boil down to a difference in approach:

You are assessing Jordan on a curve determined by certain physical characteristics like how he strong he is.

I'm assessing Jordan's defense relative to everyone and specifically for effectiveness, my system does not care for matchup favorability when deciding to describe a play as effective or ineffective. See: Lebron James being graded as ineffective for a near-block on Dwight Howard:
Lebron picks up Alston who tosses it to Lewis. Lebron keeps watch from the edge of the paint and then comes to the basket to meet Dwight, deterring a potential pass from Hedo. Instead Turkoglu throws it to Alston in the corner and Lebron follows. Alston throws it to Lewis and Lebron returns to watch Dwight. Lewis drives and misses but Dwight beats Lebron for the putback. A valiant effort considering the matchup but this tracking system does not curve for position.

For the tracking to have comparative value, consistency is essential. If Lebron cannot get a pass for failing to stop Dwight Howard and Jason Kidd gets no pass for being unable to do anything vs Tim Duncan, then Micheal Jordan cannot be given "wins" for getting bullied by an average attacker bigger defenders would have fared much better against.

On the matter of consistency:
Possession 12: Jordan still gets a rear contest which forces blackman to pump fake giving time for the rest of the defense to help. Switches onto stark and forces him into help then has solid contest at the rim. Should count as one PP here.

Touching the ball when the attacker is focused on someone else does not get you PPs on its own, See (again): Lebron vs Dwight
Lebron picks up Alston who bounces the ball to Dwight. Dwight then bodies Ilgauskas for space only to be rejected by Lebron on the weakside. Very effective secondary paint-protection but that is outside the scope of what’s being counted.

Horace Grant spends far more time in the paint, and by the rim and is the player on the strong-side who Starks is actually focused on , allowing Jordan to get his near contest.

I'm really not sure how you can think anyone but Grant was the Bulls Primary paint-protector that possession. To me that's clear-cut. Either way, allowing that as a PP for Jordan would be inconsistent with how I've graded possessions for other players as well as so I will not be adding to his tally there.

Going over the rest in chronological order:
Possession 9: This is explained as Jordan getting caught in the screen but you can see Jordan calling out to Pip to switch and pick up starks. I'd assume this was part of the bulls game plan, and with the shot clock running down Jordan steps up with a contest on ewings shot which misses badly.

It was a response to the Knicks successfully getting Jordan off Starks when they threw Mason at him. That said, you are right it is inaccurate to say Jordan was caught. And Jordan deserves some props for realizing he likely would not be able to get around the screen quickly enough to stay attached to Starks.



Possession 23: The timestamp should be 1:06:53.
Completely omitted an earlier possession where Jordan helps on Ewing, and gets a block on him and secures the ball. Although the announcers credited the block to Scott williams.

You are right It seems I put the description for possession 24 with 23 (the corresponding time-stamp is there but it's a description of possession 24) and forgot to describe 23. Will fix that. That said, as Scott Williams is the one between wing and the basket and the one Ewing is focused on, Jordan is pretty clearly not the primary here regardless of who touched it last (The video pixelates in the moment of truth so I couldn't and can't tell).

Possession 28: Idk if it warrants a paint protection rating but the comment just glosses over him altering Starks shot as “Stark slips past Jordan” Jordan forced what would’ve been regular floater to a really difficult double clutch shot.
Possession 31: Block credited to Grant but it was Jordan who swats the ball away from behind. Should be an effective perimeter play.

Jordan was the 4th most important defender in "forcing the tough shot" and gets caught on a screen. I could just as easily say "If it wasn't for Jordan's teammates he loses his man and he gets blown by". Calling that an effective perimeter possession would be inconsistent with how I've graded other players, particularly Duncan.



The possessions where Jordan was on Mason - the bulls had a lineup with tucker and paxson…and because of the size of the Knicks front court Jordan had to pick up Mason. Considering the 40lb size difference of course the Knicks want to get the ball to Mason..this is just common basketball sense.

Common basketball sense dictated by Jordan's physical limitations. I'm not grading on a curve. Just as I've dinged Lebron for losing track of PGs, and Kidd for running away from bigs at the rim, Jordan is going to be dinged when his lack of power is used against him.

All said, I appreciate you taking the effort to engage in the tracking and will incorporate your corrections (possession 9 and possession 23).

Feel free to leave notes when I finish my tracking for Jordan's "a" defensive gave from the 91 finals (today...maybe)
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL

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