Retro Player of the Year 2002-03 UPDATE — Tim Duncan

[Djoker]

Anyways just to address the above, it's pretty obvious to me that volume and efficiency would be inversely proportional; at least for superstars who already take a relatively high volume of shots. Increasing volume reduces efficiency because a) more fatigue by the player taking (often self-generating) more shots and b) opposing defenses lock in more on the highest volume scorers producing fewer easy looks for them.

[AEnigma]

Yet somehow it was not for McGrady scoring much more effectively without any teammate who could seriously pull defensive attention away from him.

[OhayoKD]

Voting Post

1. Tim Duncan

60-wins and a +5.6 SRS with Duncan averaging 6 more minutes than 2nd-in-minutes sophomore Tony Parker and 13 more minutes than #2 David Robinson. Duncan sees substantial time without #2s past and present with San Antonio going 15-3 without Robinson (68-win pace) and 10-3 without Manu (63-win pace, statmuse isn't showing net). From 01-07, the Spurs played at a 41-win pace without Duncan posting a net-rating of +0.4. A sample largely informed by 2004/2005 and a Spurs team with significantly improved iterations of Manu and Parker. With RAPM, Duncan, despite his best years coming with a #2 who plays his natural position, and an unusually large amount of minutes spent with said #2's poor backups, scores 2nd best behind KG of all players relevant to this ballot. In playoff-rapm he looks like the outright best.

With that we have a strong POY case, but what cements it is the postseason:

Spoiler:

Playoff Offensive Rating: +1.80 (83rd), Playoff Defensive Rating: -8.65 (14th)
Playoff SRS: +10.66 (47th), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +3.36 (34th)
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +2.75 (34th), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -1.70 (59th)

Playoff Heliocentrism: 50.8% (6th of 84 teams) - Duncan
Playoff Wingmen: 29.5% (76th) - Ginobili & Robinson
Playoff Bench: 19.7% (54th)

Round 1: Phoenix Suns (+1.6), won 4-2, by +5.3 points a game (+6.9 SRS eq)
Round 2: Los Angeles Lakers (+4.8), won 4-2, by +5.8 points a game (+10.6 SRS eq)
Round 3: Dallas Mavericks (+7.5), won 4-2, by +5.0 points a game (+12.5 SRS eq)
Round 4: New Jersey Nets (+6.9), won 4-2, by +5.8 points a game (+12.7 SRS eq)

The spurs jump from the 76th highest SRS to the 46th PSRS going from +5.6 to +10 as Duncan goes from averaging 6 more minutes than anybody else to 8 more minutes and ups his points, assists, assist% rebounds, rebound %, blocks, and block percentage (.1 tov increase, .1 steal decrease, .1% steal percentage drop). He also sees across-the-board improvement in ben's advanced box, and, by a box-score interpretation that really doesn't capture what he offers as the primary focus of the opposing offense on >50% of his team's defensive possessions, the Spurs run more through him than all but 2 other bigs:

Spoiler:

The problem was that all of his teammates were the wrong ages. David Robinson was 37, the future Hall of Famer going into his final year, protecting his body by playing only 25 minutes a game. In contrast Tony Parker was only 20 and Manu Ginobili was 25 (but he was a late bloomer, at this point mostly notable for being an insane ball-hawk on defense). Pretty much all of his great teammates were either too old or too young. I don’t want to sell that it was a bad supporting cast . . . It’s just that there was no way they were going to be winning anything without ‘03 Duncan. Do you know how many bigs on this list broke 45% Heliocentrism for the regular season? ‘80 Kareem, ‘74 Kareem and ‘01 Shaq (I’m choosing not to consider Bird and LeBron bigs for the purposes of this list). How about 50% Heliocentrism in the playoffs? ‘74 Kareem is it. As all-time seasons with a big man carrying a team to greatness go, ‘03 Duncan has got to be on the short list for that discussion.

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For comparison the 2000 Lakers, led by a far more lauded pinnacle, post a psrs of +7, a substantially worse postseason performance even with 8 additional minutes of Kobe Bryant.

Duncan also does this with Popavich, not "standard-deviation above any coach ever statistically" Phil Jackson. And he does it forced out of his natural position with a co-star who shares massive overlap in terms of skllset. Points ignored when certain, let's say, "context" is provided to diminish him

Spoiler:

 I’d be remiss not to acknowledge Popovich more, who, for my money, is the greatest coach in NBA history. He transitioned the Spurs from a defensively-oriented team that orbited around its twin-towers, to a perpetual motion, Euro-style offense built around perimeter players who could pass and shoot. This morphed into a brief offensive dynasty, peaking in 2014 with one of the greatest teams of all-time, unheard of for an ensemble production that lacked a troupe of stars. Popovich’s success on both sides of the ball does take some of the shine off of Duncan for me.
...
Duncan’s portability isn’t top-notch either; he’s savvy enough to scale down his offense (as he did in later years), although his limited passing prevents him from matching Garnett’s impact in a secondary role. His longevity was fantastic, tallying 17 All-Star seasons by my valuations, tied for tops in this series. He, KG and Wilt all have similar peaks and era-adjusted career value, and thus feel nearly interchangeable in these slots. So, while Garnett and him are neck and neck, if I were forced to choose, I’d oh-so-barely side with Duncan. (Are ties allowed?)

Duncan is the most portable, scalable, proven, winningest, and, most importantly, valuable player in the league. Simply, put he's the best player of the early 2000s; peak, prime and career. Maybe the best since Jabbar, maybe even Russell (era-relative). He was not merely consistent, but consistently spectacular. And at his best, he got better in the biggest games, the ones titles are won or lost with.

For the true "most dominant", I think a unanimous vote would be appropriate.

2. Kevin Garnett

RS RAPM-king till James emerges. A WOWY titan over a small sample. And, contrary to reputation, his teams don't really underperform in the playoffs. This year he faces the Lakers. And just like next year he is the best player on the court. Unlike 2004, the series is not as close as the 4-2 suggests losing by an average of 6-points a game. Do I put that on him? Not really. But that isn't going to cut it vs Duncan winning a title with a carry-job I think only a handful of winners have replicated (2016 Lebron, 94 Olajuwon, 69 Russell, 77 Walton).



3. Tracy Mcgrady
4. [b\Kobe Bryant[/b]]
5. Shaq

The Lakers are 8-points worse in the games Shaq misses and whatever the box-numbers Shaq is still the focus of defenses, is generating the most opposing fouls(an effect that works against his on/off), and is the Lakers most important, if flawed, defensive piece. He averages 4 less minutes than Kobe in both the Regular season and the postseason and there is a -0.2 advantage for Kobe in the "with you but without the other star minutes" and there is the "hey their backup was bad" which is all fine and good but only one of those points really helps Kobe here and that's already baked into the 8-point gap discussed. Will drop him a spot for the minutes-averaged and the "company time" fiasco, but placing Kobe ahead feels like a reach.

Shaq without Kobe looking similar to Kobe without Shaq is enough got me to swap them paired with the minutes disparity and shaq being the off-court problem this year

Mcgrady is my top perimeter performer. Not seeing much of a case for Kobe really besides the extra round:

Spoiler:

Let's do a quick Kobe vs. T-Mac comparison here, shall we...

Regular Season

Kobe: 30.0/6.9/5.9 on 55.0 %TS (+3.1 rTS) with 3.5 topg
T-Mac: 32.1/6.5/5.5 on 56.4 %TS (+4.5 rTS) with 2.6 topg

T-Mac has an edge statistically and led an absolutely putrid roster to a 41-win pace season. And when I say putrid, this Orlando roster is actually horrific. After T-Mac, the next seven guys in minutes were Pat Garrity, Darrell Armstrong, Mike Miller, Jacques Vaughn, old-ass Shawn Kemp, Andrew DeClerq and Jervi Sasser. Yikes! There's a lot of hyperbole on this sort of thing but this team without T-Mac really wins like 15 games. It's that freaking bad. Kobe led a much better team but with way way better support. Kobe is the slightly better defender to me so that does bridge the gap just a bit. Overall I'd give T-Mac a small edge for the RS.

Postseason

Kobe: 32.1/5.1/5.2 on 53.1 % TS (+2.7 rTS) with 3.5 topg
T-Mac: 31.7/6.7/4.7 on 56.1 %TS (+5.5 rTS) with 3.7 topg

In the PS, their performances are a wash. T-Mac dragged his Orlando team to a 3-1 lead over the Pistons and then an eventual loss though I don't hold it against him. It was just a way better team turning on the jets and crushing a superstar surrounded by journeymen. The Magic should have never led 3-1 to begin with. Lakers lost to the eventual champ Spurs with Kobe playing very well so not much to nitpick against him either.
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Considering one of the two played with Shaq and the other didn't, I would not say their performances were a wash, no. Putting the same numbers on worse efficiency next to Shaq would suggest you played significantly worse actually

Well there is a pretty easy way to look up how Kobe produced without Shaq this year.

With Shaq: 34.9 points and 7.4 assists per 100 possessions on 56.2% true shooting
Without Shaq: 42.8 points and 6.6 assists per 100 possessions on 50.9% true shooting

If you assess Kobe as an elite defensive wing still, or think he fits with other stars better than McGrady does, I understand preferring him to McGrady as an overall player, but offensively I do not think Kobe reaches that level until 2006.

Kobe might be a better defender but he is a guard. not an anchor:

Spoiler:

jordan
88-98
+1.1 drtg difference
90-99
+0.2 drtg difference
85-98
-1.1 drtg difference
84-99
-.5 drtg difference

Wade
2004-2014
-.1 drtg difference
2006-2011
-.3 drtg difference
2005-2016
-.4 drtg difference

Mcgrady seems advantaged as both a scorer and a playmaker and plays very well in a decent team-wide overperformance against the Pistons. Don't feel great about taking him over Shaq but Kobe at the bottom isn't a hard decision for me. If anything I wonder if I'm being unfair to Kidd:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2427598

OPOY

1. Tracy Mcgrady
2. Dirk Nowitzki
3. Tim Duncan

DPOY

1. Tim Duncan
2. Ben Wallace
3. Kevin Garnett

[AEnigma]

Votes are tallied. I recorded 12 approved votes for RPoY: Djoker, B-Mitch 30, OhayoKD, capfan33, ILikeShaiGuys, LA Bird, homecourtloss, penbeast0, Paulluxx, One_and_Done, CEOofKobefans, and trelos. DJoker, AEnigma, B-Mitch 30, CEOofKobefans, ILikeShaiGuys, OhayoKD, and trelos voted for both Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year. Please let me know if I seem to have missed or otherwise improperly recorded a vote.

2002-03 Results

(Retro) Offensive Player of the Year — Tracy McGrady

Code: Select all

Player       1st   2nd   3rd   Points  Shares
1. Tracy McGrady   3   1   2    19    0.543
2. Dirk Nowitzki   0   3   3    12    0.314
3. Kobe Bryant  2   0   0   10    0.286
4. Tim Duncan    1   0   2    7    0.200
5a. Steve Nash    0   2   0    6    0.171
5b. Kevin Garnett    1   0   1    6    0.171
7. Shaquille O’Neal   0   1   1    4    0.114

(Retro) Defensive Player of the Year — Tim Duncan (3)

Code: Select all

Player         1st   2nd   3rd   Points  Shares
1. Tim Duncan  6   1   0    33    0.943
2. Ben Wallace   1   5   0    20    0.571
3. Kevin Garnett   0   1   5    8    0.229
4. Kenyon Martin   0   0   1    1    0.029
4. Jason Kidd    0   0   1    1    0.029

Retro Player of the Year — Tim Duncan (4*) (Unanimous)

Code: Select all

Player      1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Pts  POY Shares
1. Tim Duncan  12  0  0  0  0    120   1.000
2. Kevin Garnett  0  9  1  2  0   74  0.617
3. Shaquille O’Neal  0  1  4  1  2   32   0.267
4. Tracy McGrady  0  0  3  4  1   28   0.233
5. Dirk Nowitzki   0  1  2  3  1   27   0.225
6. Kobe Bryant  0  1  1  1  5   20   0.167
7. Jason Kidd   0  0  1  1  3   11   0.092

In the prior project, there were 25 votes, with no overlap. These are the aggregated results of the two projects across 37 total ballots:

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

Player   1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Pts  POY Shares
1. Tim Duncan  34  3  0  0  0    361   0.976
2. Kevin Garnett  2  22  4  6  3   215  0.581
3. Tracy McGrady  1  3  15  8  6   136   0.368
4. Kobe Bryant  0  4  7  13  6   108   0.292
5. Shaquille O’Neal  0  3  8  6  15   94   0.254
6. Dirk Nowitzki   0  2  2  3  4   37   0.100
7. Jason Kidd   0  0  1  1  3   11   0.030

2004 thread will open shortly.

[Top10alltime]

2003 NBA Finals Game 1 Duncan tracking (offense only)

Defence has already been done for this game, then we shall do offence.

For those who want to see defense, here: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2457016

Here is what I will be tracking -

Scoring -
Mid range shots - (MID)
Rim shots (R)
Post shots (P)
Put-back shots (PB)
Three point shots (3)
Offensive contest (OCT)
Uncontested (UOCT)
FD (foul drawn)

Playmaking -
DTOs (defenders taken out)
EDTOs (effective defenders taken out)
Creation
SC (screen assists)
Double

Ball-handling -
BB (Ball brought up)




Possession 1 - 0:19 - Duncan gets ball from Parker, pass into Robinson drawing foul.
Possession 2 - 1:25 - Duncan with ball short corner, ball tipped away out of bounds.
Possession 3 - 3:00 - Jackson gets ball tripled, to Duncan going in for dunk, drawing foul and missing FT. (Duncan - 1/1 R, 1 FD, 1 UOCT)
Possession 4 - 4:07 - Duncan off of steal in transition brings up ball, hand it off to Jackson making post shot. (Duncan - 1 creation, 1 BB)
Possession 5 - 5:00 - Duncan stands in post in transition, Spurs score.
Possession 6 - 5:49 - Duncan gets bounce pass, doubled, behind back pass to Jackson, to Drob for dunk. (Duncan - 2 DTOs, 1 EDTO, 1 doubled)
Possession 7 - 6:19 - Duncan waits on top of key, Spurs miss shot.
Possession 8 - 6:36 - Duncan bring up ball, doubled, pass to Drob airballing shot. (Duncan - 4 DTOs, 2 EDTOs, 2 doubled, 2 BB)
Possession 9 - 7:52 - Duncan goes into block, trapped, Spurs turnover.
Possession 10 - 8:07 - Duncan bring ball up, pass to Malik who draws foul.
Then Duncan gets ball on block, heads into deep post triple teamed defense collapses. Then pass to Malik making shot. (Duncan - 6 DTOs, 3 EDTOs, 3 doubled, 3 BB, 2 creation)
Possession 11 - 9:12 - Duncan gets ball on left block, doubled, draws foul missing fadeaway in post.
After Duncan with ball on elbow, gives it down to Parker turning it over. (Duncan - 2 FD, 0/1 P, 4 doubled, 1 OCT)
Possession 12 - 9:53 - Duncan in block when Spurs goes on fastbreak, blocked shot.
Possession 13 - 10:07 - Duncan waits in block and Spurs miss shot.
Possession 14 - 12:06 - Duncan waits in block, drawn foul by Jackson.
Possession 15 - 13:20 - Duncan waits in block again as Manu makes a layup.
Possession 16 - 14:00 - Duncan in post, as Tony draws a foul.
Possession 17 - 15:15 - Jackson tries to pass to Duncan instead throwing it out of bounds.
Possession 18 - 15:55 - Spurs transition and can't make layup, putback missed by Claxton.
Possession 19 - 16:47 - Duncan sets a screen for Manu, who gives it to Claxton making shot.
START OF 2Q
Possession 20 - 18:50 - Duncan gets ball on short corner, draws double, finds Claxton, swing out to Jackson missing. (Duncan - 5 doubled, 8 DTOs, 4 EDTOs)
Possession 21 - 19:42 - Duncan gets the ball, goes into deep position missing shot, draws foul. (Duncan - 2/2 R, 3 FD, 2 OCT)
Possession 22 - 22:17 - Duncan gets ball on right block, draws double, bounce pass to Jackson making shot on key. (Duncan - 6 doubled, 10 DTOs, 5 EDTOs, 3 creation)
23:26 - Duncan off
27:50 - Duncan on
Possession 23 - 28:24 - Duncan gets ball in deep post, doubled and blocked at rim. (Duncan - 7 doubled)
Possession 24 - 30:20 - Duncan waits in low post, Drob makes dunk.
Possession 25 - 30:50 - Duncan screens Kidd, gets ball on key, pass out to Jackson, ball knocked out.
Possession 26 - 32:10 - Duncan moves into post, but ball stolen initiating Nets transition.
Possession 27 - 32:22 - Manu going up for a layup and in, missing.
Possession 28 - 32:50 - Duncan in post, as Stephen Jackson makes layup.
Possession 29 - 33:20 - Duncan bring up ball, pass out of double, waits in post as Drob missing dunk. (Duncan - 8 doubled, 12 DTOs, 6 EDTOs, 4 BB)
Possession 30 - 35:10 - Duncan helps with a screen, rolls, draws foul on double missing.
Then Duncan goes to catch airball by Parker, doubled and makes close shot (Duncan - 10 doubled, 4 FD, 1/3 P, 2 UOCT)
Possession 31 - 36:02 - Duncan tries to wait for ball in post, Jackson makes and1.
Possession 32 - 37:03 - Duncan waiting on block, Manu gets blocked.
Possession 33 - 37:29 - Duncan moving to left block, post up missing fadeaway. (Duncan - 11 doubled, 2/4 P, 3 UOCT)
Possession 34 - 39:13 - Duncan finds ball on short corner, draws double, commits turnover on pass. (Duncan - 12 doubled)
Possession 35 - 39:35 - Duncan waiting in post as Drob misses jumper.
Possession 36 - 40:20 - Duncan gets ball on elbow, misses tough shot at elbow. (Duncan - 2/5 P, 3 OCT)
Possession 37 - 40:57 - Duncan slow in transition as Bowen misses contested shot.
START OF 3Q
Possession 38 - 42:31 - Duncan waiting in post as Bowen nails 3.
Possession 39 - 43:00 - Duncan slow to run other side of court, Jackson misses reverse layup.
Then Duncan boxes out for offensive board, misses layup as he draws foul. Duncan hits both FTs. (Duncan - 2/3 R, 5 FD, 4 OCT)
Possession 40 - 45:06 - Duncan gets ball on key, draws double and kick to Parker, screen, Parker hits open 3. (Duncan - 12 doubled, 1 SC, 4 creation, 14 DTOs, 7 EDTOs)

Final tally -

Scoring:
4 OCT
3 UOCT
2/5 P (Post shots)
2/3 R (Rim shots)
5 FD (foul drawn)

Playmaking:
12 doubled
1 SC
4 creation
14 DTOs
7 EDTOs

Ball-handling:
4 BB