Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History?

Moderators: penbeast0, PaulieWal, Clyde Frazier, Doctor MJ, trex_8063

Cavsfansince84
RealGM
Posts: 14,748
And1: 11,279
Joined: Jun 13, 2017
   

Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#21 » by Cavsfansince84 » Wed May 21, 2025 3:28 am

lessthanjake wrote:
Well but Jokic’s individual playoff performances have been really great. I think people tend to have a bit of a negative recency bias when assessing players’ playoff performances. When we first watch something, we’re used to thinking about little nitpicks—moments where you think the player could’ve stepped up more, games or even just quarters where someone else on their team may have actually been better, games where the guy simply wasn’t actually very good, etc. Over time, that stuff tends to give way and we remember better stuff much more, and so I think we should be careful to compare one guy with those nitpicks in mind to another where those nitpicks have mostly (though not entirely) fallen off.

In the last 5 playoffs, Jokic has averaged 28.9 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 8.0 assists a game, on 61.4% TS%, with 3.5 turnovers a game. His playoff BPM in that timeframe has been 11.6. And those numbers aren’t skewed by any one particular run. His playoff BPMs have ranged from a low of 9.0 to a high of 12.8. And his points/rebounds/assist averages have been 30/12/5, 31/13/6, 30/14/10, 29/13/9, and 26/13/8. For all the talk of his playoff defense, the Nuggets have actually been quite good defensively in those runs in the years where they’ve had a remotely healthy team—averaging a -3.0 rDRTG in the last three playoffs (negative numbers are good here). Of course, he also led his team to a title, with one of the most dominant individual playoff runs ever. And for all the prior talk about his playoff on-off not being great, after the last two playoffs, his playoff on-off in the last five years is essentially exactly the same as LeBron’s playoff on-off from 2009-2013 (they’re at +6.7 and +6.6). So, to me, I don’t think there’s really a fair knock on Jokic’s playoff performance individually. To the extent there’s a knock on his individual playoff performance, I feel like it has to be a bank shot by talking about the team’s success, which goes back to what I posted about in my earlier post.


So where would you rank him then? If everything boils down to bpm or ts% it kind of shoehorns the discussion and makes it more about being right imo than a willingness to consider other angles and context which I would say are relevant to the subject(such as defense and performance in big games and other things). I don't think those things being brought up is an attack on Jokic or people who want to argue for him here. It's just context.
falcolombardi
General Manager
Posts: 9,406
And1: 7,009
Joined: Apr 13, 2021
       

Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#22 » by falcolombardi » Wed May 21, 2025 3:41 am

1-lebron (either 09-13 or 12 -16 or 14-18 work)

2- kareem 74-78/ jordan 88-92

4- dunno
lessthanjake
Analyst
Posts: 3,047
And1: 2,772
Joined: Apr 13, 2013

Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#23 » by lessthanjake » Wed May 21, 2025 5:05 am

Cavsfansince84 wrote:
lessthanjake wrote:
Well but Jokic’s individual playoff performances have been really great. I think people tend to have a bit of a negative recency bias when assessing players’ playoff performances. When we first watch something, we’re used to thinking about little nitpicks—moments where you think the player could’ve stepped up more, games or even just quarters where someone else on their team may have actually been better, games where the guy simply wasn’t actually very good, etc. Over time, that stuff tends to give way and we remember better stuff much more, and so I think we should be careful to compare one guy with those nitpicks in mind to another where those nitpicks have mostly (though not entirely) fallen off.

In the last 5 playoffs, Jokic has averaged 28.9 points, 13.0 rebounds, and 8.0 assists a game, on 61.4% TS%, with 3.5 turnovers a game. His playoff BPM in that timeframe has been 11.6. And those numbers aren’t skewed by any one particular run. His playoff BPMs have ranged from a low of 9.0 to a high of 12.8. And his points/rebounds/assist averages have been 30/12/5, 31/13/6, 30/14/10, 29/13/9, and 26/13/8. For all the talk of his playoff defense, the Nuggets have actually been quite good defensively in those runs in the years where they’ve had a remotely healthy team—averaging a -3.0 rDRTG in the last three playoffs (negative numbers are good here). Of course, he also led his team to a title, with one of the most dominant individual playoff runs ever. And for all the prior talk about his playoff on-off not being great, after the last two playoffs, his playoff on-off in the last five years is essentially exactly the same as LeBron’s playoff on-off from 2009-2013 (they’re at +6.7 and +6.6). So, to me, I don’t think there’s really a fair knock on Jokic’s playoff performance individually. To the extent there’s a knock on his individual playoff performance, I feel like it has to be a bank shot by talking about the team’s success, which goes back to what I posted about in my earlier post.


So where would you rank him then? If everything boils down to bpm or ts% it kind of shoehorns the discussion and makes it more about being right imo than a willingness to consider other angles and context which I would say are relevant to the subject(such as defense and performance in big games and other things). I don't think those things being brought up is an attack on Jokic or people who want to argue for him here. It's just context.


I think my post explicitly addressed some of the “other angles” you mention there. For instance, I talked specifically about the Nuggets’ playoff defense. But, in any event, to answer your question, I think Jokic is in the running for having the best five-year prime in NBA history. I don’t think anyone is the clear-cut answer here, but Jokic is certainly one of the top contenders. My first post in this thread talks a bit more on that subject.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
ty 4191
Veteran
Posts: 2,598
And1: 2,017
Joined: Feb 18, 2021
   

Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#24 » by ty 4191 » Wed May 21, 2025 5:59 am

lessthanjake wrote: So, to me, I don’t think there’s really a fair knock on Jokic’s playoff performance individually. To the extent there’s a knock on his individual playoff performance, I feel like it has to be a bank shot by talking about the team’s success, which goes back to what I posted about in my earlier post.


Perfectly stated!!! 8-)

The "Rings" Argument is BS. Specious, facile, and LAZY analysis; totally misleading.

Here’s proof:

Michael Jordan through age 27, Playoffs, before they built a tremendous team around him:

-Playoffs (53 games)
-Team Record: 24-29
-Team Series Record: 5-6
-3 first round exits, including 2 first round sweeps
-Two ECF

Jordan's playoff line through 53 games: 36.2/6.9/6.7 on +4.7% rTS. Led all players those years in all advanced and traditional metrics in the playoffs.

Nikola Jokic through age 26, Playoffs:

-Playoffs: (48 games)
-Team Record: 21-27
-Team Series Record: 4-4
-1 first round exit
-1 WCF

Jokic's line: 26.4/11.5/6.4 on +4.1 rTS%. Top 3 player in all advanced and traditional metrics in the playoffs those 4 years.

Kevin Garnett through age 27, Playoffs:

-Playoffs: (47 games)
-Team Record: 17-30
-Team Series Record: 2-8
-7 first round exits
-1 WCF

Garnett's line: 23.3/13.4/5.0. 2nd in Defensive Rating in the playoffs, those years, among players with 2000 MP. Clearly the best all around player in the NBA those years.

Wilt Chamberlain through age 28, Playoffs:

-Playoffs: (47 games)
-Team Record: 21-26
-Team Series Record: 4-5
-Much shorter playoffs structure, so they're incompatible.

Still:

Wilt's line: 33.4/26.0/3.2 on +4.7 tTS%. Clearly the MVP in the playoffs in all advanced and traditional box score metrics.

Oscar Robertson through age 31, Playoffs:

-Playoffs: (39 games)
-Team Record: 15-24
-Team Series Record: 2-6
-4 first round exits
-2 EDF

Oscar's playoff line: 29.7/9.3/9.4 on an ASTOUNDING +8.2 rTS%. Clearly, a top 2-3 player overall in the playoffs in all advanced and traditional box score metrics. He had 8 triple doubles in those 39 games, and that's when the assist rule precluded assists if the player receiving the ball dribbled before he took the shot. Much harder to get assists back then vs. today.

What did Michael Jordan win before they built an amazing team around him, while also bringing in (arguably) the greatest coach of all time in Phil Jackson?

What did Wilt win, while he had coaches (that got fired or resigned every year or so) 1960-1965? What did he win before he got great coaches, teammates, ownership, management around him?

Or maybe, just maybe, it's not how great YOU are, but how great your teammates, coaches, management, ownership are?
penbeast0
Senior Mod - NBA Player Comparisons
Senior Mod - NBA Player Comparisons
Posts: 30,156
And1: 9,774
Joined: Aug 14, 2004
Location: South Florida
 

Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#25 » by penbeast0 » Wed May 21, 2025 11:06 am

ty 4191 wrote:
lessthanjake wrote: So, to me, I don’t think there’s really a fair knock on Jokic’s playoff performance individually. To the extent there’s a knock on his individual playoff performance, I feel like it has to be a bank shot by talking about the team’s success, which goes back to what I posted about in my earlier post.


Perfectly stated!!! 8-)

The "Rings" Argument is BS. Specious, facile, and LAZY analysis; totally misleading.

Here’s proof:

Michael Jordan through age 27, Playoffs, before they built a tremendous team around him:

-Playoffs (53 games)
-Team Record: 24-29
-Team Series Record: 5-6
-3 first round exits, including 2 first round sweeps
-Two ECF

Jordan's playoff line through 53 games: 36.2/6.9/6.7 on +4.7% rTS. Led all players those years in all advanced and traditional metrics in the playoffs.

Nikola Jokic through age 26, Playoffs:

-Playoffs: (48 games)
-Team Record: 21-27
-Team Series Record: 4-4
-1 first round exit
-1 WCF

Jokic's line: 26.4/11.5/6.4 on +4.1 rTS%. Top 3 player in all advanced and traditional metrics in the playoffs those 4 years.

Kevin Garnett through age 27, Playoffs:

-Playoffs: (47 games)
-Team Record: 17-30
-Team Series Record: 2-8
-7 first round exits
-1 WCF

Garnett's line: 23.3/13.4/5.0. 2nd in Defensive Rating in the playoffs, those years, among players with 2000 MP. Clearly the best all around player in the NBA those years.

Wilt Chamberlain through age 28, Playoffs:

-Playoffs: (47 games)
-Team Record: 21-26
-Team Series Record: 4-5
-Much shorter playoffs structure, so they're incompatible.

Still:

Wilt's line: 33.4/26.0/3.2 on +4.7 tTS%. Clearly the MVP in the playoffs in all advanced and traditional box score metrics.

Oscar Robertson through age 31, Playoffs:

-Playoffs: (39 games)
-Team Record: 15-24
-Team Series Record: 2-6
-4 first round exits
-2 EDF

Oscar's playoff line: 29.7/9.3/9.4 on an ASTOUNDING +8.2 rTS%. Clearly, a top 2-3 player overall in the playoffs in all advanced and traditional box score metrics. He had 8 triple doubles in those 39 games, and that's when the assist rule precluded assists if the player receiving the ball dribbled before he took the shot. Much harder to get assists back then vs. today.

What did Michael Jordan win before they built an amazing team around him, while also bringing in (arguably) the greatest coach of all time in Phil Jackson?

What did Wilt win, while he had coaches (that got fired or resigned every year or so) 1960-1965? What did he win before he got great coaches, teammates, ownership, management around him?

Or maybe, just maybe, it's not how great YOU are, but how great your teammates, coaches, management, ownership are?


Maybe it's both. Some players with great statistics make the players around them better so that their teammates have great stats as well; it's one of the reasons why truly great PGs tend to produce great team Ortgs and great defensive centers tend to produce great team Drtgs. I notice that you are looking at younger versions of most of the greats which makes sense . . . NBA players tend to produce their highest numbers in their early to mid 20s; but they tend to get smarter about winning basketball as they get more experience and learn how to win even if their stats decline a bit. It's a tradeoff.
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
User avatar
Jaivl
Head Coach
Posts: 7,029
And1: 6,694
Joined: Jan 28, 2014
Location: A Coruña, Spain
Contact:
   

Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#26 » by Jaivl » Wed May 21, 2025 12:19 pm

Tough to pick LeBron, seems like each 5 years he drops a stinker (well, a mere All-NBA performance relative to his GOAT standards). Same with Kareem.

This might be the last "greatest" question where Jordan is the answer.
This place is a cesspool of mindless ineptitude, mental decrepitude, and intellectual lassitude. I refuse to be sucked any deeper into this whirlpool of groupthink sewage. My opinions have been expressed. I'm going to go take a shower.
Djoker
Starter
Posts: 2,110
And1: 1,817
Joined: Sep 12, 2015
 

Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#27 » by Djoker » Wed May 21, 2025 2:51 pm

Probably Jordan 1989-1993...

A 5-year stretch is enough for oscillations in the level of play to occur for just about all greats. For instance, a prime 5-year stretch by Lebron has to include either 2011 or 2015 or 2019. Even if you believe Lebron at his best is on par with Jordan at his best, he still handily loses a 5-year comparison because prime Jordan never had the lows that Lebron had.

To be honest, after Jordan, I think 2021-2025 Jokic at #2 isn't a bad choice. He really hasn't had any major decline in form in any season or any playoff series during that span. There are questions about his defense. 1961-1965 Russell is also a great choice but he's had moments of total offensive ineptitude like the 1964 playoffs that give me pause. 1976-1980 Kareem is also a great choice but missing a bunch of games in 1978 and then a critical Game 6 of the Finals in 1980 again hurts his case a bit. 1998-2002 Shaq is a fantastic choice if you're willing to overlook regular season laziness. It does kind of depend on how you slice it but MJ for me is the most consistent. Checks all the boxes -- doesn't miss games, no declines in form, great team success...
JLei
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,577
And1: 2,998
Joined: Aug 25, 2009
 

Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#28 » by JLei » Wed May 21, 2025 7:58 pm

In the data ball era.

Lebron from 09-13 is clearly the best. 4 MVPs (and lets be honest should be 5), 2FMVPs
09- 9.4 xRAPM
10- 9.9 xRAPM
11- 9.6 xRAPM
12- 8.9 xRAPM
13- 8.7 xRAPM

Numbers in the playoffs basically hold/ like 5% worse against absolutely stacked defenses (Magic, Celtics, Bulls, Pacers, Spurs) most of these were like +6-7 relative defenses.

He was basically by far the best offensive player and a top 10 defensive player in the league over this stretch.

He becomes an even better offensive player from 14-18 but definitely takes a defensive hit other than the 16 playoffs where he was a defensive demon.

My guess is if we had the PbP data 88-92 Jordan would be the guy though.
Modern Era Fantasy Game Champ! :king:
PG: Ricky Rubio 16
SG: Brandon Roy 09
SF: Danny Green 14
PF: Rasheed Wallace 06
C: Shaquille O'Neal 01

G: George Hill 14
F: Anthony Parker 10
C: Amir Johnson 12
Ian Scuffling
Senior
Posts: 668
And1: 472
Joined: Dec 21, 2012

Re: Who Had The Greatest Five Year "Prime" In NBA History? 

Post#29 » by Ian Scuffling » Wed May 21, 2025 8:10 pm

JLei wrote:In the data ball era.

Lebron from 09-13 is clearly the best. 4 MVPs (and lets be honest should be 5), 2FMVPs
09- 9.4 xRAPM
10- 9.9 xRAPM
11- 9.6 xRAPM
12- 8.9 xRAPM
13- 8.7 xRAPM

Numbers in the playoffs basically hold/ like 5% worse against absolutely stacked defenses (Magic, Celtics, Bulls, Pacers, Spurs) most of these were like +6-7 relative defenses.

He was basically by far the best offensive player and a top 10 defensive player in the league over this stretch.

He becomes an even better offensive player from 14-18 but definitely takes a defensive hit other than the 16 playoffs where he was a defensive demon.

My guess is if we had the PbP data 88-92 Jordan would be the guy though.


Doesn't seem defense has been a consideration, though. And if one does consider defense, then definitely I see Jordan with a case, too.

Return to Player Comparisons