Pascal Siakam = HOFer?

[SHAQ32]

Not even close.

Even with two rings, it's a No for me, dawg.

[PistolPeteJR]

I think he's close but not there yet.

That said, here's something I'd love to see discussed:

If Siakam is a consensus, "close but not there yet", where does that put Derrick Rose's odds at the HoF?

Rose will only get in if voters effectively codify the norm that NBA MVPs make the Hall of Fame. He really didn’t do anywhere enough across his career to warrant inclusion.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Pretty sure that will be the outcome. He's a popular guy who ended up working himself into a serviceable veteran post-injury and everything, and then there's that MVP. The bar for NBA entrants into the Hall isn't untouchably high, even without an MVP.

I don't know, I still struggle with this. While the perception of the bar in 2025 differs from the bar in 1985, which is THE reason a lot of guys are in it today that make you scratch your head, Rose playing in the modern game and being a 3-time AS, one-time MVP, and that's literally it, really makes me struggle in terms of seeing him get in.

I think of Brandon Roy as comparable. The difference between both is the MVP and the extra years Rose played as a role player, but both are 3-time All-Stars, and outside of the MVP season, I'll take Roy's short prime vs Rose's, personally.

[tsherkin]

I don't know, I still struggle with this. While the perception of the bar in 2025 differs from the bar in 1985, which is THE reason a lot of guys are in it today that make you scratch your head, Rose playing in the modern game and being a 3-time AS, one-time MVP, and that's literally it, really makes me struggle in terms of seeing him get in.

I think of Brandon Roy as comparable. The difference between both is the MVP and the extra years Rose played as a role player, but both are 3-time All-Stars, and outside of the MVP season, I'll take Roy's short prime vs Rose's, personally.

Yep, I'm with you there. What's merited versus what will happen are not the same thing, I suspect. And I would generally have taken Roy (if healthy) over Rose as a player as well, for sure. It was one of the least-deserved MVPs I've seen, at least IMHO.

[Doctor MJ]

I think he's close but not there yet.

That said, here's something I'd love to see discussed:

If Siakam is a consensus, "close but not there yet", where does that put Derrick Rose's odds at the HoF?

Rose will only get in if voters effectively codify the norm that NBA MVPs make the Hall of Fame. He really didn’t do anywhere enough across his career to warrant inclusion.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Pretty sure that will be the outcome. He's a popular guy who ended up working himself into a serviceable veteran post-injury and everything, and then there's that MVP. The bar for NBA entrants into the Hall isn't untouchably high, even without an MVP.

We'll find out and that will further set precedent. I do agree with you that there's a tendency to creep toward more inclusions.

Just for an analytic perspective here, here's the RAPM VORP leaderboard from my recent Englemann-based study for the 2008 draft:

1. Russell Westbrook
2. George Hill
3. Kevin Love
4. Brook Lopez
5. Nicolas Batum
6. Danilo Galinari
7. Serge Ibaka
8. Gordan Dragic
9. DeAndre Jordan
10. Eric Gordon
11. Derrick Rose

This is an entirely regular season thing of course, but also of course, Rose's entire candidacy rests on a regular season MVP.

[tsherkin]

Just for an analytic perspective here, here's the RAPM VORP leaderboard from my recent Englemann-based study for the 2008 draft:

1. Russell Westbrook
2. George Hill
3. Kevin Love
4. Brook Lopez
5. Nicolas Batum
6. Danilo Galinari
7. Serge Ibaka
8. Gordan Dragic
9. DeAndre Jordan
10. Eric Gordon
11. Derrick Rose

This is an entirely regular season thing of course, but also of course, Rose's entire candidacy rests on a regular season MVP.

George Hill. Wonderful roleplayer.

[Doctor MJ]

Is Lamarcus Aldridge or Amare Stoudemire?

While I honestly wouldn't be surprised if either of these guys make the Hall, I would say that Pascal's HOF case is heavily influenced by his noteworthy playoff accomplishments, which is not the case for Aldridge or Amar'e, and frankly I don't think either of them really fit with contender level teams the way Pascal did. Amar'e would fit offensively, but not defensively. Aldridge's offense is based on him hitting from mid-range as a big who isn't good enough to be your primary scoring option, which generally is not a recipe for contention - his game is all around enough that I could still see him as a role player on a champion in theory, but it would probably involve telling Aldridge not to play offense like he likes to play offense.

[Doctor MJ]

Just for an analytic perspective here, here's the RAPM VORP leaderboard from my recent Englemann-based study for the 2008 draft:

1. Russell Westbrook
2. George Hill
3. Kevin Love
4. Brook Lopez
5. Nicolas Batum
6. Danilo Galinari
7. Serge Ibaka
8. Gordan Dragic
9. DeAndre Jordan
10. Eric Gordon
11. Derrick Rose

This is an entirely regular season thing of course, but also of course, Rose's entire candidacy rests on a regular season MVP.

George Hill. Wonderful roleplayer.

Definitely. In fact, if I go by that draft for Defensive VORP, I get:

1. George Hill
2. Luc Mbah a Moute
3. Brook Lopez
4. Serge Ibaka
5. Roy Hibbert

So, really there's an argument for Hill as the best defender from this draft.

What about the Offensive VORP?

1. Russell Westbrook
2. Nicolas Batum (!!!)
3. Kevin Love
4. Eric Gordon
5. Goran Dragic

Hill would come in at 7th after the above five and Danilo Gallinari. Rose would crack the top 10 after the above seven plus Brook Lopez & DeAndre Jordan.

[tsherkin]

Just for an analytic perspective here, here's the RAPM VORP leaderboard from my recent Englemann-based study for the 2008 draft:

1. Russell Westbrook
2. George Hill
3. Kevin Love
4. Brook Lopez
5. Nicolas Batum
6. Danilo Galinari
7. Serge Ibaka
8. Gordan Dragic
9. DeAndre Jordan
10. Eric Gordon
11. Derrick Rose

This is an entirely regular season thing of course, but also of course, Rose's entire candidacy rests on a regular season MVP.

George Hill. Wonderful roleplayer.

Definitely. In fact, if I go by that draft for Defensive VORP, I get:

1. George Hill
2. Luc Mbah a Moute
3. Brook Lopez
4. Serge Ibaka
5. Roy Hibbert

So, really there's an argument for Hill as the best defender from this draft.

What about the Offensive VORP?

1. Russell Westbrook
2. Nicolas Batum (!!!)
3. Kevin Love
4. Eric Gordon
5. Goran Dragic

Hill would come in at 7th after the above five and Danilo Gallinari. Rose would crack the top 10 after the above seven plus Brook Lopez & DeAndre Jordan.

And Gallo in there, too, damn. He was pretty good for a minute back then.