This vote is over, of course, but an interesting point that probably doesn’t warrant its own thread but is relevant to the subject matter of this one:
I’ve talked many times about how it is more valuable to have gravity away from the basket than to have gravity near the basket, because opening up space near the basket is better than opening up space away from the basket. The main reason for this is that opening up space in an area of the court will tend to open up teammates to get good looks in those parts of the court, and shots near the basket are better than other shots (even threes). And I’ve shown analysis in this thread demonstrating the effect of this—with Steph being a real outlier in how much his presence on the court increases his teammates’ rim shot frequency (
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=107628798#p107628798).
But I’ve been thinking about how the superiority of gravity away from the basket doesn’t just end there. It’s not just that shots near the basket are better. It’s also that you want to pull defenders away from the basket for purposes of getting offensive rebounds. Pulling defenders away from the basket creates a number advantage near the basket, which will make it easier to get offensive rebounds, while the opposite would be true for pulling defenders towards the basket.
And here’s what’s really interesting about that. The NBArapm website has a second version of RAPM called “6Factor,” which looks at the impact by various aspects of offense and defense. It has it across a bunch of different timeframes, so I won’t list all the info. But I’ll just say this in general: During the early-2010s to end-of-2010s timeframe—when space increased and LeBron’s ability to get to the basket peaked (as per his % of FGA at the rim increasing a lot in that era)—LeBron’s offensive-rebounding RAPM was consistently negative, somewhere in the -0.5 to -1.0 area. Meanwhile, starting at the beginning of his prime years, Steph’s offensive-rebounding RAPM was consistently positive, usually somewhere in the +0.4 to +0.8 area. This is particularly interesting because Steph is not a good offensive rebounder individually. LeBron isn’t a great one either and plays a bigger position, but I still would instinctively assume that on individual ability, LeBron would have a better impact on offensive rebounding than Steph. But we see the opposite. And not by an inconsiderable amount. A net difference of like +1.5 on a team’s offensive rebounding percentage is significant! For reference, that difference is equivalent to the difference between the Denver Nuggets and an average-offensive-rebounding NBA team this past season.
And, to be clear, this isn’t just an effect that’s exclusive to LeBron or Steph. Luka has a significant negative RAPM when it comes to offensive rebounding. Harden has generally come out about neutral, so he’s a less clear data point on this. Meanwhile, Damian Lillard—someone who also has had a lot of gravity away from the basket, albeit much more focused on on-ball gravity—has also typically had positive impact on his team’s offensive rebounding, despite not being very much of an offensive rebounder himself.
In general, I do think that there’s a serious offensive rebounding advantage to gravity caused by great shooters as opposed to guys who collapse the paint. Which is another reason it’s much better to have gravity that pulls defenders away from the basket, rather than towards it.
