Most underrated players from databall era?

[Smoothbutta]

When limiting the scope to just players since '97 or so, I am curious which players we feel are the most underrated. Doesn't have to be all-time greats.

I started thinking about this when I realized Ginobili's EPM was technically higher than Duncan's every regular season between 2005 and 2012, or that his EPM throughout his career was better than even someone like Dwyane Wade's who has an all-time legacy. So perhaps of course he wasn't better than Duncan in 2005 or more impactful than Wade but maybe he is very underrated.

[Doctor MJ]

When limiting the scope to just players since '97 or so, I am curious which players we feel are the most underrated. Doesn't have to be all-time greats.

I started thinking about this when I realized Ginobili's EPM was technically higher than Duncan's every regular season between 2005 and 2012, or that his EPM throughout his career was better than even someone like Dwyane Wade's who has an all-time legacy. So perhaps of course he wasn't better than Duncan in 2005 or more impactful than Wade but maybe he is very underrated.

So, I'm a parishioner of the Church of Manu, and would say he was the poster boy for being underrated by these contemporary observers, at least for my wall.

There was a brief moment in '04-05 when Steve Nash was the most underrated guy, and then perception flipped and he won the MVPs. That never happened for Ginobili. He won accolades of course, but there are levels to this pantheon and Nash gets place considerably higher than Manu.

Mind you, I'd still say most underrate both Manu & Nash, but Manu definitely more so.

In terms of where to go in the discussion from there, I don't really keep a specific list like this...

but I have made a spreadsheet with estimatedRAPM VORP. I would advise cautious in running with this data as meaning a particular thing, but where you see players who rank higher than their typical stature, these are candidates for being underrated in their time.

I specifically created the RealGM 100 perspective to consider players who maybe are more deserving of the rank than guys now on the list.

To just name the top 5 players by VORP not in the last 100:

Mike Conley
Jrue Holiday
Vlade Divac
Andre Iguodala
Detlef Schrempf

Would I say all of of these guys are generally underrated? Yes, I would. There, it works!

Am I saying I expect to advocate for Conley next time we do the 100? Eh, probably not, but that's not unrelated to the fact that that I'd favor at least Jrue & Iggy over Conley because of their great playoff reputations.

This then to say, this regular season-based method of mind, is going to underrate (in my assessment) those who particularly stood out in the playoffs, and so while I think Conley deserves his flowers, I'm not so sure they will be these flowers.

[AStark1991]

Shawn Marion and Victor Oladipo are a couple that come to my mind. This might be a hot take of mine, but I've always felt that Marion was just as good, if not better of a defender than both Artest and Bowen, it's just that his efforts on that end of the floor never got truly recognized due to spending his peak years on such an offensive minded team. The fact that he was never selected to an All-Defensive Team is absolutely bonkers. And a lot of people seem to forget that Oladipo was the best all-around guard in the league during his last fully healthy season. 23.1 PPG, First Team All-Defense, led the league in steals, and had the second best defensive rating in the playoffs behind only Draymond.

[FrodoBaggins]

Sam Cassell? Nene & Jason Collins were loved by advanced statistics. The power of good positioning, sturdy post defense, boxing out, and not fouling.

[FrodoBaggins]

Bo Outlaw had a couple of crazy defensive seasons where he's a clear on/off outlier on the team. He almost seems like Draymond a bit on defense. Chuck Daly (ORL coach) referred to him as a smaller Rodman that can block shots better.

Bo Outlaw: the most underrated defender ever?

He's ranked 16th in vanilla lifetime defensive RAPM and 13th in an age curve-adjusted version of the same data. All the names above him aside from Arvydas Sabonis, Shawn Bradley, and Nene have either won DPOY, made All-D teams, or both.

Although he never made an All-D team Bo did get some DPOY votes in '96, '98, and '00. He came off the bench most of the time and rarely averaged more than 30 minutes per game. I'm sure that was a big factor in his lack of defensive accolades. Starters played more minutes back then.

His defensive box-score numbers were fantastic. Extremely impressive block and steal rates for a versatile, undersized guy playing all three front-court positions. DBPM is right up there; he led the league one season.

He finished fifth in DPOY when he got 36.0 mpg in 1997-98. But his best defensive seasons are probably either 1996-97 or 1999-00. Both years have some wild discrepancies between his on/off numbers and his teammates. Here's how a RealGM poster detailed his '97 season:

Peak Outlaw at 23. Haven't ranked Ratliff yet but he is probably around top 60.

Outlaw is one of the most underrated defensive players ever. He was among the league leaders in defensive RAPM in the late 90s with Mutombo / Robinson and not even the RAPM supporters on this board seem to notice. Outlaw's career defensive on-off post 2001 in his 30s is -5.8 in the regular season and -8.0 in playoffs - limited minutes but those are absolutely elite numbers.

In 1997 when he led the league in NPI defensive RAPM, here is how his on/off compares to his teammates on the Clippers...

Net On/Off
+15.6 Bo Outlaw
-0.8 Rodney Rogers
-1.2 Lorenzen Wright
-12.7 Malik Sealy
-15.9 Loy Vaught

Defensive On/Off
-11.4 Bo Outlaw
+2.8 Lorenzen Wright
+2.9 Rodney Rogers
+4.8 Malik Sealy
+9.3 Loy Vaught

* Estimates based off NBA.com on-court net ratings

Outlaw left in free agency and the Clippers started the next season 1-11 with a league worst +12.5 defense before Vaught (their worst defender who gets all the credit because of better box score) had a season-ending injury. Even without Vaught, Clippers still suffered a massive blow without Outlaw and ended with a bottom +6 defense for the next few years. Outlaw had huge defensive impact and it's a shame he never got the recognition he deserved for carrying that pathetic team to an on court -3.9 D.

That Clippers team won 36 games and made the playoffs in a weak conference with a very forgettable cast of players coached by Bill Fitch.

The 1999-00 Orlando Magic were projected to be the worst team in the NBA. They had lost their three highest-minute players Penny Hardaway, Nick Anderson, and Horace Grant. With a rookie coach (Doc Rivers), they would go on to win 41 games and narrowly miss the playoffs in a season dubbed "Heart and Hustle."

The play-by-play data is similar to 1996-97:

Net On/Off
+13.1 Bo Outlaw
+1.4 Ben Wallace
-2.4 Darrell Armstrong
-0.1 John Amaechi
-1.4 Chucky Atkins

Defensive On/Off
-9.4 Bo Outlaw
-5.0 Ben Wallace
-1.4 Darrell Armstrong
-1.3 John Amaechi
+4.1 Chucky Atkins

Bo had that team at a 97.6 DRtg when he was on the court. That would be the equivalent of playing 0.6 points better than the top-ranked 98.2 DRtg Lakers defense that season. League average ORtg was 104.1 so that on-court DRtg was like -6.5 rDRtg.

And it wasn't like Bo wasn't playing much: 2,313 minutes. Only Armstrong was on the court more.

Pretty remarkable stuff.

If you dive deeper into the play-by-play data/lineup numbers, you notice that his defensive impact is coming from his ability to lower the opponent's eFG% and FTr while increasing their TOV%. He's not adding value by impacting team defensive rebounding/limiting opponent second-chance points.

Here's a look at his RAPM defensive four factors:



The position you play is going to generally determine what kind of impact you'll have on defense. Guards and wings tend to generate more turnovers for instance. PFs and Cs will usually have a greater influence on lowering opponent shooting percentages and free-throw rates while improving team defensive rebounding.

But the lines do get blurred and there are outliers. Versatile defenders who can defend several positions often have hybrid qualities. Hakeem, Garnett, Ben Wallace, and Draymond have guard-like steal rates and lineups featuring them generate turnovers likewise. Bo Outlaw falls into this category.

His positional outlier quality is his turnover generation. Basketball Reference has him as playing SF 33%, PF 54%, and C 14% of the time over his career (data only going back to '97.) He played slightly more SF (34%/52%/14%) in his best years from '97 to '04.

His position can be graded out to a 3.8 average. This compares very favorably to Josh Smith (3.8), Draymond (3.9), Garnett (4.2), Rasheed Wallace (4.3), Robert Horry (3.9), Luc Mbah a Moute (3.6), Giannis (3.7), Kenyon Martin (4.2), Lamar Odom (3.8), Andrei Kirilenko (3.3), Shawn Marion (3.3), Robert Covington (3.5), Herbert Jones (3.7), and Justice Winslow (3.4).

Era is obviously a factor here.

Of all players in the 28-year RAPM database from a 3.3 to a 4.3 positional average, no one has a greater DTOV than Bo Outlaw. Meaning, that no one's presence on-court results in as many opponent turnovers.

Robert Covington and Thaddeus Young are the closest. Otto Porter Jr, Kirilenko, and Draymond aren't that far off.

Hell, including every player/all 5 positions he's still 15th. 7th for 2.0 to 5.0.

But once you cross reference that with lineup impact on opponent eFG%, that's when things become clear. The only 3.3-4.3 guys in the same ballpark for overall defensive impact (D-RAPM), defensive influence on eFG% (DEFG%), and turnover generation (DTOV%) are Draymond Green and Kevin Garnett. With Robert Horry a little ways off.

You can play with the numbers here: https://nbarapm-flask.replit.app/datasets/LifetimeRAPM

Anyways. This is getting a bit long so I'll end it here. But Bo Outlaw was a hell of a defender. He looks a lot like Draymond Green on defense per the numbers.

28-year vanilla defensive RAPM

1. Kevin Garnett [-6.3 per 100]
2. Dikembe Mutombo [-6.0 per 100]
3. Alex Caruso [-5.4 per 100]
4. Alonzo Mourning [-5.4 per 100]
5. Draymond Green [-5.2 per 100]
6. Tim Duncan [-5.1 per 100]
7. Rudy Gobert [-5.1 per 100]
8. Shawn Bradley [-5.1 per 100]
9. Ben Wallace [-5.0 per 100]
10. Paul George [-4.6 per 100]
11. Joel Embiid [-4.6 per 100]
12. Nene [-4.5 per 100]
13. David Robinson [-4.4 per 100]
14. Arvydas Sabonis [-4.4 per 100]
15. Andrew Bogut [-4.4 per 100]
16. Bo Outlaw [-4.3 per 100]

28-year age curve-adjusted defensive RAPM

1. Kevin Garnett [-6.4 per 100]
2. Dikembe Mutombo [-5.6 per 100]
3. Rudy Gobert [-5.3 per 100]
4. Draymond Green [-5.3 per 100]
5. Alex Caruso [-5.3 per 100]
6. Ben Wallace [-4.9 per 100]
7. Tim Duncan [-4.9 per 100]
8. Andrew Bogut [-4.8 per 100]
9. Joel Embiid [-4.7 per 100]
10. Shawn Bradley [-4.6 per 100]
11. Alonzo Mourning [-4.4 per 100]
12. David Robinson [-4.4 per 100]
13. Bo Outlaw [-4.4 per 100]

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A couple of quotes from a 1998 SLAM article:

“To me, he’s a mini-Dennis Rodman who can block shots better,” Daly said of 'Bo,' who he coached on the Orlando Magic. - Chuck Daly

“My game is hard work. That's as simple as I can put it,” the San Antonio, Texas, native said.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/1999/08/04/magic-just-happy-bo-is-back-in-town/

"Bo can do it all. He's been our third point guard. He's started at small forward. He can play about anywhere," said John Gabriel, Magic general manager. "There is not much he can't do. He's about playing basketball, working hard. He has that unique ability to put all else aside and just concentrate on the game. Every team in the league deserves to have a Bo Outlaw on the roster."

...

"Bo is energy. He's what you want on the floor and off the floor," Gabriel said. "He's always ready when the season starts. You don't have to worry about that. He's going to be a big part of the Magic."

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/1997/11/09/outlaw-breaks-free-to-spark-magic/

When the Orlando Magic signed forward Charles “Bo” Outlaw to a free-agent contract in the off-season, they knew they were getting an excellent defensive player.

On Saturday night, Magic fans found out Bo also knows offense.

Outlaw, who was 15th in the NBA last season in blocked shots per game (1.73), came up big on the offensive end against the visiting Toronto Raptors, sparking Orlando to a 96-87 victory at Orlando Arena.

Outlaw wound up with season highs in points (16), assists (7) and rebounds (10), making his first start of the season a memorable one.

“It was a good lineup tonight,” Magic guard Penny Hardaway said. “With the veteran point guard (Mark Price), and then you have Bo, who’s going to have a lot of energy the entire game. . . . You really don’t fall into a lull in the first quarter.”

Outlaw and Price each scored six points and had three assists to lead the Magic to a 25-24 first-quarter lead.

Outlaw was inserted into the starting lineup earlier in the day when Nick Anderson was scratched with a jammed left thumb.

“That’s what you like when people can step in and perform the way he did,” Magic coach Chuck Daly said. “He almost had a triple-double. He had a terrific offensive night, and he’s a non-shooter, basically.

“But he gets baskets because he moves without the ball. He’s around the board; he can defend; he runs the court. . . . He’s almost bionic.”

Not quite, but he was very impressive.

Early in the third quarter, when the Magic started to distance themselves from the Raptors, Outlaw’s diversity really shined. Consider:

He scored on a reverse layup at the 10:20 mark, then threw down two of his four powerful dunks to help give Orlando a 68-58 lead with 3:59 to play.

Meanwhile, the fifth-year pro from the University of Houston grabbed three rebounds, had one steal and made a behind-the-back pass to Penny Hardaway on a fast-break layup.

Outlaw downplayed his coming-out party.

“I was just in the way,” he said. “I was just coming out and playing my game and trying to help my team.”
But the offense?

“My teammates put me in easy situations,” he said. “If I can’t make a layup, then, hey. . . . Half my points came on layups and dunks.”

OK, but what about those career-high seven assists?

“That was an accident,” he said with a smile. “I lost control of the ball, and my teammates just happen to shoot it.”
Does this mean his defensive reputation might not be accurate?

“It doesn’t matter what people think,” he said. “If people think I’m not going to score, that’s good for me. If you don’t guard me, I’ll show you.

“I’m the one who doesn’t speak. I let my actions speak.”

He was loud and clear Saturday night.

Originally Published: November 9, 1997 at 5:00 a.m.

[Dr Positivity]

Luol Deng - The 17ppg midrange type of scoring game looks outdated, but I just felt like this guy wins games, huge part of 60 W Bulls core and when Rose got injured he and Noah led Bulls to keep winning. The difference between him and pre Warriors Iguodala is overstated, they were both elite defenders and glue guys you want on your team and supporting players on offense. In modern day probably would be PF and it would probably work great with the Draymond sized body and decent shooting for a 4.

Nene - There was a time after Melo got traded and the Nuggets kept winning that it felt like this guy's team and legitimate core player to build around. Injury prone and enigmatic overall though.

I still think the ease at which the Raptors cranked out 50-55 W type seasons with Lowry is underrated accomplishment for him because Derozan is the easiest player to call overrated of this era, Valanciunas skillset has average impact in this era, the bench became exemplary starting in 2018 but in the years beforehand with guys like Joseph, Ross and Patterson, it was more average in talent, it wasn't Casey. So where the wins coming from, it looks like Lowry, and team culture but he's one of the biggest parts of that anyway. The supporting cast was probably more like Dirk's from 05-07 or something with Derozan and Howard as comparable, average coach, etc. so while they weren't as good as the Mavs, that Lowry was still able to have multiple 50 W seasons and make a CF is quite impressive. The Raptors have learned since how hard it is to be a 50 W team, VanVleet and Siakam in their prime don't look like a worse combo than Lowry and Derozan considering talent and fit, but for whatever reason, the success wasn't even close.

[SHAQ32]

I remember being surprised at how Bruce Bowen tracked in certain metrics. Considering he was 8x All-Defense, a career 39% shooter from 3, and averaged 0.7 turnovers for his career.

On top of that, he missed his aged 22, 23, and 24 seasons playing overseas, and played one game in 1997. He made his 8 all-defense teams in essentially only 12 seasons.

[giberish]

I'd say Baron Davis gets underrated.

I see people claim that he would have been exposed if he'd played more on good teams and that he was just a chucker but it really feels like the opposite. Playoff Baron was a beast. If he had been on better teams with more playoff runs this would have been made very clear. Even during regular season stretches where he as playing with lower energy he still had solid on/off marks with good 'run the offense' type of PG impact on offense and athletic with some BBIQ impact on defense.

[One_and_Done]

Lebron.