Giannis vs Wilt

[70sFan]

EDIT: Any FG% for those shots beyond 10 feet?

Sure, for 1962-73 Wilt sample, he shot 24/44 from 10+ feet, which is 54 FG%, but that's a tiny sample. I will count shots outside the paint as well at some point. I think that would give us a bit better sense of the "outside" touch, as for these floater-range shots, distance is often difficult to estimate.

In comparison, Shaq in my sample shot 32/92 from 10+ feet (35 FG%) and 50/140 from outside the paint (36%), which is very close to 2000 playoffs (26/73 - 35.6%) and 2001 playoffs (18/48 - 37.5%) nba.com numbers.

EDIT: I just counted the data for Wilt:

1962-73 Wilt:

Restricted Area: 146/191 (76.4%)
In The Paint (Non-RA): 61/134 (45.5%)
Outside the Paint: 36/80 (45.0%)

Shaq data:

2000-01 RS Shaq official data:

Restricted Area: 1077/1417(76.0%)
In The Paint (Non-RA): 550/1266 (43.4%)
Outside the Paint: 142/401 (35.4%)

2000-01 PS Shaq official data:

Restricted Area: 276/370 (74.6%)
In The Paint (Non-RA): 157/358 (43.9%)
Outside the Paint: 44/121 (36.4%)

2000-01 Shaq my sample:

Restricted Area: 289/354 (81.6%)
In The Paint (Non-RA): 196/462 (42.4%)
Outside the Paint: 50/140 (35.7%)

Significant note: Wilt posted 55 FG% in 1962-73 period, while my sample has him at 60%, so the numbers could overstate Wilt's shooting ability outside the paint. It is possible that with more stabilized sample Wilt would be closer to Shaq in FG% outside the paint.

[migya]

I think the important point in the context is that Wilt didn't dunk so much like Shaq and did shoot those one handed shots from at least 8ft or so from the basket. It is higher degree of difficulty. If Wilt was able to bump like Shaq and get close to the basket as often I think he'd score a little more and more relevantly easier. Greater data by the way.

[70sFan]

I think the important point in the context is that Wilt didn't dunk so much like Shaq and did shoot those one handed shots from at least 8ft or so from the basket. It is higher degree of difficulty. If Wilt was able to bump like Shaq and get close to the basket as often I think he'd score a little more and more relevantly easier. Greater data by the way.

Wilt's finger roll was an alternative to a jumphook, not to a dunk. Wilt dunked plenty of times and although it's true that more restrictive offensive fouls didn't allow him to use his strength advantage to the same degree Shaq did, it's not like Wilt rarely dunked and didn't use his physical features on consistent basis.

[migya]

I think the important point in the context is that Wilt didn't dunk so much like Shaq and did shoot those one handed shots from at least 8ft or so from the basket. It is higher degree of difficulty. If Wilt was able to bump like Shaq and get close to the basket as often I think he'd score a little more and more relevantly easier. Greater data by the way.

Wilt's finger roll was an alternative to a jumphook, not to a dunk. Wilt dunked plenty of times and although it's true that more restrictive offensive fouls didn't allow him to use his strength advantage to the same degree Shaq did, it's not like Wilt rarely dunked and didn't use his physical features on consistent basis.

Noone in history used their physical abilities like Shaq, and noone was really allowed to as much either.

[penbeast0]

I think the important point in the context is that Wilt didn't dunk so much like Shaq and did shoot those one handed shots from at least 8ft or so from the basket. It is higher degree of difficulty. If Wilt was able to bump like Shaq and get close to the basket as often I think he'd score a little more and more relevantly easier. Greater data by the way.

Wilt's finger roll was an alternative to a jumphook, not to a dunk. Wilt dunked plenty of times and although it's true that more restrictive offensive fouls didn't allow him to use his strength advantage to the same degree Shaq did, it's not like Wilt rarely dunked and didn't use his physical features on consistent basis.

Noone in history used their physical abilities like Shaq, and noone was really allowed to as much either.

Both of these are true. Wilt was not as prone to pure strength moves and would not have been allowed to use them even though his strength would have allowed him to play like Shaq if permitted. But Wilt also prided himself in being more than a physical specimen and deliberately shot a fallaway as well as the finger roll to demonstrate his varied post game. As he shot less, he dunked proportionately more so by his Laker championship, he was probably using the dunk as an equal percentage of his shots to Shaq's later years, thus Wilt's greater fg efficiency compared to his earlier years.

[tsherkin]

Spoiler:

EDIT: Any FG% for those shots beyond 10 feet?

Sure, for 1962-73 Wilt sample, he shot 24/44 from 10+ feet, which is 54 FG%, but that's a tiny sample. I will count shots outside the paint as well at some point. I think that would give us a bit better sense of the "outside" touch, as for these floater-range shots, distance is often difficult to estimate.

In comparison, Shaq in my sample shot 32/92 from 10+ feet (35 FG%) and 50/140 from outside the paint (36%), which is very close to 2000 playoffs (26/73 - 35.6%) and 2001 playoffs (18/48 - 37.5%) nba.com numbers.

EDIT: I just counted the data for Wilt:

1962-73 Wilt:

Restricted Area: 146/191 (76.4%)
In The Paint (Non-RA): 61/134 (45.5%)
Outside the Paint: 36/80 (45.0%)

Shaq data:

2000-01 RS Shaq official data:

Restricted Area: 1077/1417(76.0%)
In The Paint (Non-RA): 550/1266 (43.4%)
Outside the Paint: 142/401 (35.4%)

2000-01 PS Shaq official data:

Restricted Area: 276/370 (74.6%)
In The Paint (Non-RA): 157/358 (43.9%)
Outside the Paint: 44/121 (36.4%)

2000-01 Shaq my sample:

Restricted Area: 289/354 (81.6%)
In The Paint (Non-RA): 196/462 (42.4%)
Outside the Paint: 50/140 (35.7%)

Significant note: Wilt posted 55 FG% in 1962-73 period, while my sample has him at 60%, so the numbers could overstate Wilt's shooting ability outside the paint. It is possible that with more stabilized sample Wilt would be closer to Shaq in FG% outside the paint.

Great stuff, thanks for sharing!

[kcktiny]

Who would you rather build around for today?

Chamberlain.

Wilt is arguably the greatest player in NBA history. Antetokounmpo is arguably the best PF to ever play, but I do not believe he has an argument for greatest NBA player ever.

As good as Giannis is defensively, Wilt was considerably better. Just a monster blocking shots in the paint and also pretty quick for his size so strong horizontally as well. I think a case can be made that Wilt is the 2nd best defender ever after Russell.

With the available shot blocking data it's clear Chamberlain was a great shot blocker. Better than Russell? Debatable, but it's clear he was one of the very best ever. Great shot blocking trumps an excellent perimeter defender every day of the week. And the fact that he could do this while committing very few fouls is vastly impressive.

Lastly Antetokounmpo in 12 NBA seasons has yet to play 3000 minutes in a season even once, and has played less than 2500 minutes in a season in over half of his 12 seasons. Chamberlain averaged playing 3400+ minutes/season in his 14 year career, including averaging playing 3500+ minutes/season from the ages of 34-36, and playing at such a great level at those ages as to be named the C on the all-defensive 1st team twice in that age range.

A prime Chamberlain today would be devastating on both offense and defense.

[Owly]

Wilt's finger roll was an alternative to a jumphook, not to a dunk. Wilt dunked plenty of times and although it's true that more restrictive offensive fouls didn't allow him to use his strength advantage to the same degree Shaq did, it's not like Wilt rarely dunked and didn't use his physical features on consistent basis.

Noone in history used their physical abilities like Shaq, and noone was really allowed to as much either.

Both of these are true. Wilt was not as prone to pure strength moves and would not have been allowed to use them even though his strength would have allowed him to play like Shaq if permitted. But Wilt also prided himself in being more than a physical specimen and deliberately shot a fallaway as well as the finger roll to demonstrate his varied post game. As he shot less, he dunked proportionately more so by his Laker championship, he was probably using the dunk as an equal percentage of his shots to Shaq's later years, thus Wilt's greater fg efficiency compared to his earlier years.

It's not systematic and even my memory is from books read some time ago (but still often published long after the fact) and as I say this was not systematic data tracking. But there have been quotes that give the impression of Wilt preferring to be perceived as skillful rather than using force, or afraid to use force and hurting people and thereby not dominating as much as he might and taking tougher shots than may have been necessary. As I say hard to know how real this is.

As has been noted rules will have been at play too. And how to ref huge guys is often contentious (some saying they get away with stuff, some that their reins are tighter - I do remember more recently someone - I think Goldsberry - noting smaller post defenders [highlighted by Draymond] getting away with more on D).

[Owly]

Lastly Antetokounmpo in 12 NBA seasons has yet to play 3000 minutes in a season even once, and has played less than 2500 minutes in a season in over half of his 12 seasons. Chamberlain averaged playing 3400+ minutes/season in his 14 year career, including averaging playing 3500+ minutes/season from the ages of 34-36, and playing at such a great level at those ages as to be named the C on the all-defensive 1st team twice in that age rage.

Broadly speaking playing more minutes (as an elite player) is good.

In each of 2019 and 2020 the Bucks were the league leading SRS team. Antetokounmpo played fewer minutes than previously in significant part because he didn't need to because games were sewn up.

Milwaukee could have ridden their starters harder in the regular season. I don't think it would have made their best players better than they are or enhanced their chances of achieving their ultimate goal. The idea that below 2500 minutes here is particularly a blow to him ... doesn't make much sense to me.


It is well known that Wilt played huge minutes. Part of this is differing era norms. Part of this is Wilt insisting on doing so. These are certainly remarkable feats. Maybe it was the optimal way of utilizing him to attain championships. But this is again not entirely clear.

[kcktiny]

The idea that below 2500 minutes here is particularly a blow to him ... doesn't make much sense to me.

What are you missing?

Was or was not the question:

Giannis vs Wilt... Who would you rather build around for today?

Both players great on a per minute basis. But one played a career 46 min/g while missing few games, the other just a career 33 min/g, on average has sat on his ass for close to 1/3 of every game he's played in, and to boot the past 6 years missed 17% of his team's games. In the playoffs Chamberlain played 47 min/g, Antetokounmpo just 36 min/g.

Chamberlain played 14 years in the league, lead the league in minutes played 8 times, was top 4 in the league in minutes played in 13 of his 14 seasons.

So the question is would you rather build around a great player that misses few games and plays a maximum amount of minutes, or a great player that plays just 33 min/g?

To me this is an easy choice. If you are a great player you don't help your team by sitting on the bench for close to 1/3 of every game you play in.

That make much sense to you?

It is well known that Wilt played huge minutes. Part of this is differing era norms. Part of this is Wilt insisting on doing so.

Where's the part that he was simply an incredible almost once-in-a-lifetime athlete that was able to play at an extremely high level both offensively and defensively for maximum minutes, almost never tiring, and doing all this while rarely committing a foul, something literally no other player has ever done?

These are certainly remarkable feats. Maybe it was the optimal way of utilizing him to attain championships. But this is again not entirely clear.

The Celtics won 11 titles with Bill Russell playing 43 min/g and missing few games. Over those 11 championship seasons no other Celtics player averaged playing more than 33 min/g. How many titles do you think they win with Russell playing just 33 min/g all that time?