Is SGA Actually as Elite as People Claim?

[Joey YZ]

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander just averaged 30.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 5.8 APG, and finished top-3 in MVP voting — but I think the hype is starting to outpace reality.

Yes, he’s efficient (54% FG last season) and OKC wins a ton.
But here are the concerns nobody talks about:

Playoff drop-off is real. His FG% fell from 53.5% in the regular season to 45% in the 2024 playoffs, and his 3PT% collapsed to 29%.

Struggles against physical defenses. When teams load up on him, his ISO-heavy style stalls the Thunder’s offense.

Not the closer he’s made out to be. In clutch situations last season, he shot under 42%, far lower than other top stars like Luka or Tatum.

Defensive reputation is inflated. He gets steals, but advanced metrics like DBPM have him barely above neutral.

I’m not saying he’s bad — he’s a superstar — but the “top-3 player in the world” narrative feels premature.

[Cavsfansince84]

I think it's still too early in his career to say there are clear patterns with regard to rs-->ps performance. What about 2024? It will be much more clear 5 years from now how well his rs level carries over to the playoffs. Until then we are using pretty small samples to draw conclusions. Even last year's playoffs was pretty damn good overall imo. I think he did run out gas and part of that was how Okc pushed to 68 wins and how many games his teammates missed. He had to carry a very large load in the last year's rs. Let's maybe let things play out for a few years before we try to give him any labels based on his playoffs. Even if his efficiency goes down if his team is winning that sort of speaks for itself. Same as with Kobe.

[homecourtloss]

advanced metrics like DBPM have him barely above neutral.

What?

[Special_Puppy]

We are quibbling whether he is better or slighly worse than peak Kobe and Wade. Yes he is elite

[Owly]

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander just averaged 30.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 5.8 APG, and finished top-3 in MVP voting — but I think the hype is starting to outpace reality.

Yes, he’s efficient (54% FG last season) and OKC wins a ton.
But here are the concerns nobody talks about:

Playoff drop-off is real. His FG% fell from 53.5% in the regular season to 45% in the 2024 playoffs, and his 3PT% collapsed to 29%.

Struggles against physical defenses. When teams load up on him, his ISO-heavy style stalls the Thunder’s offense.

Not the closer he’s made out to be. In clutch situations last season, he shot under 42%, far lower than other top stars like Luka or Tatum.

Defensive reputation is inflated. He gets steals, but advanced metrics like DBPM have him barely above neutral.

I’m not saying he’s bad — he’s a superstar — but the “top-3 player in the world” narrative feels premature.

1) On playoffs - I don't know that it is "real" rather than noise. What can be said with confidence is that he hasn't matched his serious MVP contention tier production in the playoffs. And it's not something that "nobody talks about". Otherwise, I would think, he would have gone significantly higher in our peaks project.

2) Supposing this to be true it will be baked into all stats and yet ... see the the stats.

3) Ditto above. "Inflated" assumes a particular perception of reputation. Percentage given with no indication of sample but to be clear it's single season, in specific situations and "clutch" on a team that didn't play many close games.

4) Assumes a particular general perception. I'm not sure how great DBPM is but (at least by the freely available Reference model - IDK if Thinking Basketball's BPM has Offense Defense splits and differs substantially here) for what it's worth "barely above neutral" ... he's at 3.0 to one decimal place (in a tiny sample) this year, which would place him at or above the career mark of all but one player (https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/dbpm_career.html) - not exactly "barely above neutral" - granting some non-qualifiers (like Manute Bol) may be higher.

In simple terms look at the box-production and the on-off difference on an elite team https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gilgesh01.html the idea he's outside the top 3 ... behind presumably NJ,GA and ... who is there that makes this "narrative" premature? A few players to carve out a clear division between him and the top three?