Owly wrote:Doctor MJ wrote:but I also see Jimmy & Kidd as considerably more reliable as leaders and playoff performers.
I understand this was a big and fairly comprehensive post and maybe leaders means something different in this context. Still the combination/collocation of "reliable" and "leaders" for me set off a mental alarm bell.
My impression has been that their their lack of, I suppose, reliability - relative volatility and friction creation - were what led them to more itinerant (and conflict filled) careers than might be typical for players of their talents. One can kind of link it back to a tool you're using - people can argue 4-year RAPM's use for peaks, but I get the idea to seek a more accurate impact-side measure - ... it's maybe less likely for such players that one franchise is getting those 4 years. Maybe that doesn't matter for peaks. Anyway I just felt "reliable as leaders" ... it's "more" so maybe it's an implied criticism of Gobert (and M. Gasol???) ... jarred in my head so thought I'd mention it.
A reasonable push-back.
I'll make the distinction thusly: I see Kidd & Butler as guy who at their best drove their teammates forward with active leadership driven by their intensity and intelligence. I don't think the teams I'm thinking of (Nets & Heat respectively, primarily) make the breakthroughs they do without everything that these two guys brought to the table.
In terms of their unreliability:
I do think people should think about why Kidd changed teams twice before settling in Jersey for the duration of his plausible peak era, but I'm not sure I see anything I see as super relevant to this project. It would have been great if Kidd's rookie arrival on the Mavs had turned that trainwreck around, but it didn't, and the Mavs would end up completely rebuilding by Don Nelson & Son before they ended up gaining traction. Meanwhile I've always heard the Suns trade of Kidd being more about not just off-court stuff, but off-team stuff. I'm not going to tell people they can't try to factor that into their assessment of Kidd the basketball player, but I suppose I'll say I have something of a bias in evaluating player peaks where I focus on what allowed them to have the success they had, and so a strong personality which would in some contexts cause problems may end up a positive for me.
This certainly holds true for Butler as well, but to walk through Jimmy's timeline. I would say that when he left every team but one (Bulls, 76ers, Heat), he did so because the team was not eager to continue to have him as a star member of their core. In such cases, while I will raise an eyebrow at some of Butler's strategic disgruntled behavior and consider it when considering other questions (career, re-draft, etc), they specifically seem not relevant to Butler in a peak project.
The Minny melt down though, I think is worth talking about separately, because there it really seemed like Jimmy decided that his young co-stars Wiggins & KAT were the problem, and he pushed his way out in part because he just didn't think they had the mentality to be the foundation of an elite core, in the process ruining the tenure of his two-time coach Thibs, who desperately wanted Butler there. To me this is the most damning thing Butler's done in his career, and I do hold it against his career, and it would make me cautious were I getting into the Jimmy business... but I also have to admit, I kinda thought he said something that needed saying. This came after the Wolves had given Wiggins a max contract, and that decision, imho, was a big problem.
Over to Gobert: So in a nutshell, I see Kidd & Butler as guys who when they step up and tell their teammates to charge into the breach, the teammates do it with fervor, whereas I see Gobert as a guy who's an awkward person generally who is also dealing with being French in the US.
I don't want to act as if this is a bigger deal than it is to be clear. The objective thing we know is that Gobert and his teams seemed to have a tendency to disappoint, and disappoint defensively, in the playoffs, and this in particular happened in Gobert's big year when they got upset by a short-handed Clipper team that put up a 128.2 ORtg in the series. I think we all have a tendency to point to the Clippers' outside shooting, and many of us wonder if hot shooting luck should be seen as the primary culprit, but we should recall that the Jazz made way more 3's in the series, and shot them well. This was a failure of defense, and while Gobert was not the weak point on the defense, oftentimes defense has a lot to do with team vibe, which had already been a visible concern for the team.
Re: Gasol. Wasn't really looking to talk about Gasol in these terms. I don't think he has the same charisma as Kidd or Butler (at least in an American league), but he never seemed to have the fraught interpersonal situations that came with Gobert.
Final note on Gobert: Worth noting he got to the WCF the last two years in Minny, so clearly his presence is not antithetical to making a deeper playoff run. However, I have to say I don't think these Wolves have been more a dangerous opponent than a true elite contender - they can "upset" more capable overall teams with the right matchup (Nuggets, Lakers), but I don't see them getting through 4 opponents without some astonishing matchup (and injury) luck. I also think that to the extent the Wolves have had a foundation for culture, it is Ant that that is built on. It's got some serious pros and cons, but from a Gobertian perspective, the fact it's there I think helps him.












