FD08: WE HAVE A CHAMPION!!!

[mudyez]

SAN ANTONIO SPURS





[color=red]DEFENSE

[penbeast0]

Western Conference Finals --

Big man Scoring -- Garnett is clearly the best player of the 4, Biedrins the worst. Not much bench help either way, a bit from Wilcox. Edge Dallas

Wing Scoring -- Hinrich and Bowen won't be taking many shots except for open jumpers so it is Howard, Ginobili, and Felton v. Arenas, Jefferson, and Gordon. Again not a strong edge but more versatile/more weapons edge Dallas.

Passing -- At the point, the playmaking skills are pretty even with Tinsley's edge over Felton helping Dallas. San Antonio's wing players have a slight passing edge, Garnett is the best interior passer while Biedrins is the weakest. Another close call but edge San Antonio.

Rebounding -- Clear edge San Antonio

Defense -- A lot of good defenders on both teams. Yao is the best help defender but I think this comes down to coaching. PUSH

Bench -- Gordon is the only difference maker off the bench; he blows hot and cold and can shoot you into or out of a game but having that option give the edge Dallas.

Intangibles -- San Antonio has more guys who seem willing to accept roles and a clear star in Garnett. Dallas has Yao and Arenas whose injuries haven't seemed to disrupt their teams tremendously, plus Rasheed who may not be the T happy fathead of yore but it still volatile. Edge San Antonio.

Overall -- I like San Antonio's mix better even though Dallas has more weapons. edge San Antonio.

[penbeast0]

Eastern Conference Finals -- Chicago v. Toronto

Big man scoring -- Neither side is all that impressive. Aldridge has been good but is still untried in playoffs and Camby isn't a disaster but isn't a go to guy either; O'Neal is the most dominant but does it with poor efficiency and is a bad post passer, Bogut is a terrific passer but hasn't dominated people in the post either. McDyess has an edge from the weak benches. PUSH

Wing and Point Scoring -- Here is the scoring. LeBron and Carmelo are both team leaders; KMart and Allen are both terrific complements. Billups is a clear advantage over Miller, Barbosa over anyone on the Toronto bench. Edge Chicago

Passing -- LeBron is the key; Billups is terrific but O'Neal negates that a bit. Edge Chicago

Rebounding -- Slight inside edge to Toronto, Wing rebounding is stronger for Chicago. Push

Defense -- Camby and O'Neal are terrific inside with Bogut and Aldridge making great strides this year. Varejao and McDyess both solid too. Outside, the only real strong defender is Billups though LeBron is a lot better than Carmelo in the glory matchup. Yet again, no clear strong edge so I give it to the reigning DPOY, edge Chicago

Bench -- Barbosa is a difference maker, some other good players on both squads though Horry and Kleiza aren't much help on either squad. Edge Chicago

Intangibles -- Billups is the man known for clutch scoring; LeBron carried his team to the finals on his back and now has better help. Again, close but edge Chicago.

Overall -- I didn't pick Chicago in the last round but it seems the matchups here just favor them a bit everywhere, particularly LeBron v. Carmelo. Chicago

[LeQuitterNotMVP]

Firstly, one writeup? What is this?

WCF: Spurs vs. Mavs

Two great teams right here. But, one has to win. Starting off down low, KG is the best of the "big 3", but 2 of the big 3 are on the Mavs. Rasheed should really be able to contain KG, and while Biedrins is solid, I don't see Yao giving up too much to him. Both teams have solid post depth, though. As for the perimeters, Manu, who is probably the main scorer, will be held in check pretty well by Bowen, making Howard the main option on the perimeter. Overall I like the wing scoring a little more on the Spurs, but I like the D a little more on the Mavs. It's pretty evenly matched, though. Ben Gordon is the best scorer off the bench here, however. As for PGs, I like that Hinrich will be able to defend Arenas well, and both Hinrich and Felton can lead an offense and get the offense running smoothly. Overall, this is a VERY close series, but I'll have to give the edge to the Spurs based on the fact that they had a writeup.

Spurs in 7.

ECF: Bulls vs. Raptors

Lebron vs. Melo. Lebron clearly holds the edge in this matchup, it's not even close (I'm not being a homer, everyone knows that's true.) I have no idea who will defend Lebron, he will have a field day against this team. Now, the same could be said about the Bulls not having an answer for Melo and Allen, but Lebron is clearly the best player of the 3. He will also have K-Mart to look to when he gets doubled and tripled. As for the post games, they're pretty evenly matched, if JO can be his dominating self, then the Raptors will hold the advantage. The Bulls do have better post depth, though. Looking at PG play, Billups should make the Raptors offense very fluid, but so should Andre Miller, both he and Lebron can run the offense. I also like Barbosa's instant offense off of the bench. Overall, this will be a close series, but the fact that no one will stop Lebron gives the Bulls the edge.

Bulls in 6.

[Kosta]

Actually I planned to double LeBron and make other guys specifically Camby, Aldridge and Miller beat me. No way was I going to let "Melo guard him one on one. I'd rather make James a playmaker in this series.

And the Bulls are weak up front offensively, particularly off the bench with Varejao and Kleiza, even with Camby and Aldridge they will struggle mightily to get anything inside.

Unles LeBron could in the series all by himself, I think I have a clear advantage at most positions.

One more thing, who exactly would be guarding 'Melo on offense? I'm sure LeBron wouldn't, because even on the Cavs he barely ever defends the opposing teams best player for most of the game.

[Myth_Breaker]

Eastern Finals: Bulls vs. Raptors

We have 2 very nice perimeter combinations with guys complementing each other as to shooting, scoring, passing, experience and leadership: Andre Miller/Kevin Martin/LeBron vs. Billups/Ray Ray/Carmelo. Defense is about equal, though not as exceptional as in case of other duos' advantages. Overall, I'm going with Chicago as having the best guy in both trios and the most valuable player in the whole series, but the choice is tough. Under the basket Bogut/healthy Jermaine (I remind: we assume here all players are healthy) are in turn slightly better than Camby and inexperienced LMA. Benches: Chicago has better backup bigs, while Toronto - perimeter players off the bench. Both teams could do better on the defensive end, while Raps have advantage as to long-range shooting. Lack of true backup PG is a minus for Bulls. But still I have to go with Chicago in 7: LeBron is simply too dominant compared to even Melo this season, while Camby is the most valuable defender in both squads.

Western Finals: Spurs vs. Mavericks

Garnett is the best player in the series, but Yao and Gilbert are tied for 2nd - with the whole due respect to Manu. PG: minus for Arenas for not being pure 1, but Mavs have Tinsley for this, and I don't remember Hinirich effectively guarding Gil on consistent basis (unlike in case of guarding Wade). Felton is good, but unproven. AD - OK, but seriously aging. Tinsley is better than any of them, while rookie Conley must be considered the weakest link. Clear advantage: Dallas. SG/SF: Josh/Manu vs. Bowen/Jefferson could be almost a wash. I can see Bruce able to contain Manu better than Howard - Jefferson (J-Ho is weaker defender than BB, while Jefferson is too strong for him), what kind of makes up for Bowen being the weakest offensive player out of these four. We can say that Diaw/Gordon/Sasha are at least equal to Moon and AP. Slight advantage: Spurs. PF goes to Spurs, no questions asked, but Sheed is the best KG/TD defender in the league except... KG/TD. Joe Smith>no-defense Wilcox. But at C... Biedrins is first of all odd choice for San Antonio being - like the real Spurs - classic halfcourt, physical, defense-oriented team. Rail-thin and weak Biedrins can get away with playing at C only in Warriors or Suns system (and he doesn't have PF skills as well). In Spurs he will be lost: especially against Yao, who is going to absolutely dominate him (so far he dominates even Bynum, while Bynum dominates Biedrins - you get the math; and Andris hasn't got enough skills or range to compensate for being so physically overmatched). Hence I envision Diop taking majority of PT from Biedrins (Etan Thomas is very overrated defender anyway). But it's still not enough for Ming, who additionally has a valuable backup in Dampier: he started over Diop in Dallas, right? This is the biggest positional difference in the series and IMHO deciding factor, combined with Arenas being the most explosive offensive player on the court. Dallas has better shooters to surround Yao than San Antonio - to surround Garnett. Spurs have slightly better defense thanks to their bench. But I'm going with Mavericks in 7 (and I vehemently disagree with punishing them for not providing a writeup, especially as ss_mav has already presented his writeup in the earlier series).

[mudyez]

so its

CHI-TOR 3:0
and
SA-DAL 2:1
really need the last 2 judgements!

[Warspite]

Dallas vs Spurs


Wouldnt you pay money to watch Bowen vs Manu?? A great drinking game could be created based on Bowens cheapshots and Manus flopping. My guess is that Manu is carried out on a stretcher before halftime of every game and comes back to play in the 3rd.


I like Dallas in this matchup for 3 reasons

1. Yao has the ability to dominate this game and dictate pace. Hes going shoot 55-59% from the field. Its just a matter of many shots he gets.

2. Sheed is a very good defender of KG and with Yao on the weakside KG will be shooting further outside than he needs too to counter Yaos FG%.

3. Jefferson is such a physical player and very underrated. Hes having a great yr and will be able to get to the basket with Sheed and Yao sealing the lane.

The combination of Yao and Sheed is IMHO an act of pure genius... 2 bigmen who shoot +75% from the FT and can shoot very well from midrange and play with there back to basket. They are interchangible and yet they stretch the defenses and arent redundant.

Dallas in 6

[Teddy KGB]

Since neither me nor kid canada have posted replies in a while, I think you guys can start judging based on our previous strategies.

Just want to clarify, I feel that LeBron is too strong for Bowen and so RJ will be on LeBron with Bowen locking down Kevin Martin. I'm gonna lock down Kev Mart and let LeBron try and beat me single handed, that too with an adequate defender in RJ on him. Also, he doesn't have a big man threat on the offensive end and so both Yao and Sheed can be clogging the lanes to stop the Chosen One from getting to the rim. Offensively, neither Aldridge nor Camby can handle Yao one on one so he will dominate the hell out of them, Arenas will be torching the hell out of Andre Miller

Also, before you give Andre Miller brownie points for being a pure PG, remember that he has LeBron and the ball will undoubtedly be in LBJ's hands all the time, making Miller essentially useless.

Despite the fact that i got this shizz wrapped up, good luck kid canada

[penbeast0]

Ok, Finals Judging -- Chicago v. Dallas

Big men scoring: Yao is the best scorer of the four, Rasheed has more offensive impact than Camby. Easy edge Dallas

Wing and Point scoring: LeBron >Gil, KMart>Jefferson, Miller>Bowen, Barbosa>Gordon. Easy edge Chicago

Passing: Yao gives Dallas the inside edge on passing, but Chicago has it all over Dallas outside. Easy edge Chicago

Rebounding: Neither backcourt will make a significant difference. Camby and LeBron give Chicago the front court edge on the boards. Chicago

Defense: Camby is the best help defender, a significant step up from Yao. Rasheed and Bowen are the best man defenders, something Chicago doesn't have much of. Edge Dallas

Bench: Dallas has the edge inside, where they need it less (unless Rasheed gets T'd up early). Barbosa has a big edge on Gordon outside, some solid players elsewhere but he gives the slight edge to Chicago.

Intangibles: Bowen and Rasheed have been there before. On the other hand, Rashed has been known to melt down and Yao's team always seems to go on win streaks when he goes out. I'd rather trust to LeBron's leadership since he's the superstar than Yao and Arenas. Edge Chicago.

Overall: LeBron (and Barbosa off the bench) will have to step up to make this happen but I see them as more likely to step up than the explosive duo of Yao and Arenas. Despite Dallas's inside advantage, I think this goes to Chicago.

[LeQuitterNotMVP]

Finals - Bulls vs. Mavs

The Mavs hold the easy edge inside, Yao and Rasheed are both better than anyone the Bulls have. The Bulls' post guys will be shut down offensively (not that they were great post scorers to begin with), putting more pressure on Lebron and the Bulls' perimeter scorers. So that shifts the focus towards Lebron. I'm not sure why ss_maverick has RJ against Lebron, Bowen did a pretty good job against Lebron in the finals IMO. Either way, if Lebron does get shut down, K-Mart will be able to torch the Mavs' D. Both teams have instant scoring off of the bench w/ Gordon and Barbosa, so they pretty much cancel each other out. Andre Miller being a pure PG will help smooth the offense of the Bulls, but I'm not sure how much he will help here with Lebron handling the ball so much, and if Lebron is shut down on D, he will only have K-Mart to relieve his scoring. This is basically a dominant post against a dominant perimeter, and if history shows us anything, the dominant post will win, as much as I hate to go against Lebron.

Mavs in 7.

[Myth_Breaker]

OK, I'd like to start from saying that it was a great pleasure to participate in this league as a judge, with so many great teams to choose from.

Now it's time for our GREAT FINALS: CHICAGO BULLS VS. DALLAS MAVERICKS.

PG: Arenas is the 2nd most explosive player in the series, after LeBron, and quite a clutch performer. Pure PG he's not, but has Tinsley for this - and I imagine they'd spend much PT on the floor together, with Bowen sliding to SF. On the other hand Andre Miller is poor man's Jason Kidd: he will help LeBron in creating/ballhandling very well, but generally is going to get dominated. Barbosa is a pure scorer and great at it, Navarro can hit clutch long range shots, Conley doesn't count. Overall nobody will stop neither Gilbert or Barbs, but this position goes to Dallas as having clearly best player here.

SG: Bowen can makes life difficult for every two/three in the league, though Martin is very good in using screens to avoid defenders (+ is excellent complement to James). BB, Gordon (BTW, he's equivalent of Barbs) and Sasha constitute more powerful offensive and defensive combination than Chicago's duo of Martin and (inexperienced) Brewer. Advantage Mavs.

SF: What can we say more about Lebron, probably 2nd best player in the NBA? He's gonna dominate so much that it's not even funny. Fortunately for Mavs at least Jefferson won't be dominated by him so much from purely physical standpoint (but I agree with the previous judge that it's Bowen who should be put on James). I don't appreciate Marvin Williams at his current stage of development and IMHO giving him PT over Bonzi is a huge mistake. On the other hand, Diaw regressed much since his MIP season (he's permanent source of frustration for Phoenix' fans). HUGE advantage Chicago.

PF: Aldridge is nice, but not great in defense and inexperienced. In turn - Kleiza is inexperienced and undersized. Rasheed is career underachiever (could've reached KG/TD level), but still is better than those both combined (also complements Ming very well and can play all 3 frontcourt positions). Wilcox is capable backup, though has no defense. Clear advantage - Mavericks.

C - Yao is Top-2 center in NBA. Dampier was a starting center in the Top-2 team: I guess he's more than capable backup. On the other hand, Camby is reigning DPOY, who's going to outproduce Ming on the boards and in swats department (though I reckon Yao intimidates shooters just as much due to his sheer size). Just like Camby is more limited than Ming, Vareajo - nice hustle player, but undersized and not very capable in offense - is a tad more limited than Dampier. Anyway, none of Bulls' bigs stands a chance as to guarding 7-6, 310 Chinese. Overall this position goes to Mavs by a significant margin.

Overall defense goes to Dallas as well with Sheed-Yao-Bowen (to lesser extent Dampier and Vujacic - and honorable mention to Tinsley's steals) as above-average defenders vs. Camby-Vareajo-LeBron-Bonzi Wells and nobody else. Both teams have comparable benches, but I'd rather have Dallas' one due to better versatility and experience. BTW, Mavs as a whole have experience edge. Frankly speaking, I don't even feel like detailed comparing 3P and FT percentages because the overall picture is already clear (so I'm a bit amazed by Pen's verdict): Mavericks are simply better team, with the whole due respect for Chicago. Of course, in real life it wouldn't be like "they are better in vast majority of categories, so gonna make it a sweep". No: LeBron by himself can give the Bulls 1 or 2 wins. But the final outcome IMHO doesn't raise any doubts: Dallas Mavericks in 6 or 7.

[Warspite]

Dallas in 6 games


The Mavs have 3 20ppg scorers with a slasher, low post C and combo guard. They create mismatches and stretch defenses to there breaking point. The mavs defense is not lock down but its offense alone applies tremendous pressure. The easiest way to stop a scorer like LBJ is to make him play defense and commit fouls. Cambys defense is negated by having to guard his own man and not being able to leave him.

I just want to thank all the GMs who put the time and effort into this. I thought I would enjoy being a judge but I dont. I hated it simply because I had to choose a loser when I believe the differance between most teams is most likely unmeasurable. It comes down to matchups more than anything and IMHO the 1st rd losers could have easily won a 2nd series had they had a better matchup. I also believe a player like Kobe, LBJ, TD could be a huge impact with the teams so even or they could be of little impact because the teams are so stacked. With those 2 theories and no way to test them Im left 2nd guessing myself and in many matchups Im not 100% confident in my conclusions and so I feel like I have seen a movie with no ending/conclusion.