RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75 (Chris Bosh)

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RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75 (Chris Bosh) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:26 pm

1. Michael Jordan
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3. Lebron James
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kobe Bryant
12. Kevin Garnett
13. Oscar Robertson
14. Karl Malone
15. Jerry West
16. Julius Erving
17. Dirk Nowitzki
18. David Robinson
19. Charles Barkley
20. Moses Malone
21. John Stockton
22. Dwyane Wade
23. Chris Paul
24. Bob Pettit
25. George Mikan
26. Steve Nash
27. Patrick Ewing
28. Kevin Durant
29. Stephen Curry
30. Scottie Pippen
31. John Havlicek
32. Elgin Baylor
33. Clyde Drexler
34. Rick Barry
35. Gary Payton
36. Artis Gilmore
37. Jason Kidd
38. Walt Frazier
39. Isiah Thomas
40. Kevin McHale
41. George Gervin
42. Reggie Miller
43. Paul Pierce
44. Dwight Howard
45. Dolph Schayes
46. Bob Cousy
47. Ray Allen
48. Pau Gasol
49. Wes Unseld
50. Robert Parish
51. Russell Westbrook
52. Alonzo Mourning
53. Dikembe Mutombo
54. Manu Ginobili
55. Chauncey Billups
56. Willis Reed
57. Bob Lanier
58. Allen Iverson
59. Adrian Dantley
60. Dave Cowens
61. Elvin Hayes
62. Dominique Wilkins
63. Vince Carter
64. Alex English
65. Tracy McGrady
66. James Harden
67. Nate Thurmond
68. Sam Jones
69. Kevin Johnson
70. Bob McAdoo
71. Sidney Moncrief
72. Paul Arizin
73. Grant Hill
74. Bobby Jones

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As I don't doubt many of you have holidays plans which will interfere with participating on this board, or even allow you limited internet access, we'll leave this one open extra long: unless we get a lot of participation early on, let's tentatively plan on 96 hours until this one goes to runoff (I'll give fair notice if going to end it sooner than that).

Have a great holiday everyone......


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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75 

Post#2 » by trex_8063 » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:28 pm

1st vote: Tony Parker

NEW [since #72 thread] COMMENTS:
There'd been some comments/criticisms against him pertaining to "career luck" in landing on the Spurs, the implicit being that we cannot count all the team accomplishments as his personal accomplishments (the anti-ringz argument, if you will). Fair enough, but I don't see that as ruling him out at this stage.
If we take all his team success and accomplishments (not just titles, but stellar rs records, frequent playoff runs, as well as all honors, accolades, MVP shares, etc) at face value, with some slight weighting of era competitiveness, then one might conclude we're already 15-20 places late on him.
I've a complex formulation which I've mentioned at times in the past, which factors in just about everything under the sun (except RAPM or on/off based stats, because we don't have that for earlier eras, though it DOES utilize WOWY data) including raw totals, PER, WS, WS/48 (rs and playoffs), career length, strength of peak season (as defined by PER*WS/48*mpg), ORtg/DRtg (estimates based on team ratings for early eras), aforementioned WOWY, awards, honors, MVP shares, titles and finals appearances, rs and playoff win%, era ratings, positional era ratings, etc etc etc.......I have four different versions of this formula (differing weighting on various factors and/or differing era ratings): two of the four rank Parker as high as #47, none lower than #60. But I acknowledge these formulas have a bit too much "winner's bias", as well as perhaps requiring some re-tooling of era ratings. But jsia.........it's only out of consideration for "career luck" (among other things) that I didn't begin supporting Parker earlier.

A more simple formula which simply measures career value above a replacement level player as measured by PER and WS/48 (replacement player defined as 13.5 PER and .078 WS/48 for rs, 12.5 PER and .064 WS/48 for playoffs)---where each playoff minute played is weighted 3.25x heavier than each rs minute----ranks Tony Parker #68 all-time (and that's before giving any consideration at all toward strength of era).
fwiw, this same formula ranks Chris Bosh #59, Shawn Marion #61, Carmelo Anthony #66, the newly voted-in Paul Arizin #72, Chris Webber #83, Bobby Jones #86, Grant Hill #92.

How does he stand in terms of impact data vs some of these same individuals?
Utilizing the following sources for the following years:
'94-'96: colts18's rs-only APM.
'97-'00: ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt RAPM (PI for '98-'00, NPI for '97).
'01-'13: J.E.'s RAPM sheets (NPI for '01 and '12, PI for other years).
'14: the now "deceased" GotBuckets? website PI RAPM (*where available---there were a few players whom I didn't get around to adding to my spreadsheet until after the site went kaput, and I can't seem to locate any other source of RAPM data for '14; closest I've found was a IPV (Individual Player Value) metric on the Talking Practice blog (but I'm not a big fan of it))
'15-'17: J.E.'s RAPM googlesheets (PI used)
Also have some APM for '88-'93 for select members of the 76'ers (as +/- was being tracked by one of the execs at the time, and I forget who----Dipper? Elgee? someone....---ran a regression of the numbers).

......So from all of these sources, we have impact data going back basically two and a half decades (which covers pretty near half of the player seasons played in the NBA/ABA history).

And from those sources, here's how some noteworthies (for this stage of the project) rank in it Best 10 Years combined RAPM:
Chris Bosh: +31.3
Dikembe Mutombo (#53): +29.05
Grant Hill (#73): +27.77
Tony Parker: +26.83
Ben Wallace: +25.97
Shawn Marion: +24.7
Chris Webber: +21.03
Elton Brand: +20.4
Carmelo Anthony: +13.65

Best 12 Years:
Chris Bosh: +32.34
Dikembe Mutombo (#53): +30.21
Tony Parker: +29.23
Grant Hill (#73): +27.97
Ben Wallace: +26.07
Shawn Marion: +22.07
Elton Brand: +19.9
Chris Webber: +18.07
Carmelo Anthony: +11.75

So he's very much in the mix from an impact perspective.

And the other more conventional arguments:
Accolades: 6-Time NBA All-Star, 4-time All-NBA (3x 2nd Team, 1x 3rd Team). Figured into the MVP vote SEVEN seasons, as high as 5th, four times in the top 10.

Narrative: Core piece of a dynasty, with 5 trips to the NBA finals, 4 rings, 1 FMVP.

Statistical/style: A quick as hell penetrator who finishes well at the rim, and from a longevity standpoint, he starts looking pretty good statistically.....
Over the 10-year span of '05-'14---which covers 706 rs games (sticking with rTS% and per 100 possession numbers, for better cross-era comps):
29.7 pts, 4.9 reb, 10.2 ast, 4.2 tov @ +2.07% rTS in 32.7 mpg. (20.5 PER, .160 WS/48, +1.8 BPM, +6 efficiency differential).......again, that's over a solid decade. He's got at least 2-3 other better than average seasons besides. Is 65th in NBA/ABA history in rs WS, 51st in playoff WS, fwiw.



2nd vote: Chris Bosh
I've come about thinking more highly of Chris Bosh in the last few days. Unfortunate his career's been cut short as it has, but the amount of consistency it requires to be an 11-Time All-Star in this day and age is impressive, his impact appears among the best of those players left on the table, malleable to multiple situations/scenarios. You'll note how impressive he looks in the impact data I posted above in Tony Parker's arguments, too. So I'd be perfectly happy with him at this spot.

Top HM is perhaps Shawn Marion (Dan Issel and Ben Wallace also on deck).
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75 

Post#3 » by penbeast0 » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:54 pm

No surprise here. Mel Daniels is the best true big men left (other than the 1.5 seasons you get from Walton but Walton just didn't play enough for me to list him in any top 100 careers though his peak was terrific. ). Daniels is a two time MVP and best player on two championship teams plus a willing support role on a third championship though in a weak league. I tend to value defense, particularly for big men, and Mel was basically the original Alonzo Mourning with more rebounding but less shotblocking. He was a 1st round NBA pick (the first to sign with the ABA) and in the NBA would probably have been one of the best centers as well, not in the Jabbar league but then neither was anyone else, but contending with Unseld/Cowens for the rebounding leaderboard and 2nd team All-Defense and with 15-20ppg scoring on limited range (Slick Leonard drew a circle on the floor 10 feet or so from the basket and told him he would be fined if he ever shot outside that range). Like Zo, his playmaking was mediocre but in addition to strong rebounding and defense, he was Indiana's intimidator, in a league where everyone was trying to make a name for themselves. And, he did it without major foul trouble issues. The two MVPs show he was valued above his box scores.

James Worthy and Shawn Marion are the two main guys I am looking at now...


Worthy is a guy who can create for himself from the post and one of the great open court finishers ever. A bit less range than Jones and a weaker rebounder, also a decent passer. His calling card are some terrific playoff scoring games.

Shawn Marion. Terrific help defender approaching the 2 block/2 steal level at times; he sometimes seemed to be everywhere in Phoenix covering for Amare and Nash while still scoring 20ppg. Outstanding off ball movement and excellent rebounder. Two caveats: First, his playoffs were not good as he was beaten by lesser players like Lamar Odom. Second, he did apparently whine about his role in Phoenix. He also benefited tremendously from playing with Steve Nash if you look at his efficiency with Nash v. without.

Vote: Mel Daniels
Alternative: James Worthy
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75 

Post#4 » by pandrade83 » Sun Dec 24, 2017 2:24 am

pandrade83 wrote:Family was just here & I'll be traveling each of the next 3 days (oof) so for now, this will just be a copy/paste unfortunately.

1st vote: Chris Bosh
2nd vote: Larry Nance


I'll go with Chris Bosh. An 11 time all-star and key member of the '11-'14 Heat.

Bosh was a star in Toronto - getting 3 20/10 seasons and finishing 14th in RAPM from '08-'11. He could've been a great stats/bad team guy but he shows a lot of maturity in terms of being willing to evolve in Miami. He turns himself into an efficient stretch big who scored efficiently and helped set up strong spacing for Lebron & Wade. He played solid defense over that time and Miami doesn't enjoy the success that they do without him. Even after Lebron leaves, Bosh is the co-lead in MIami with Wade, taking the Heat to the 2nd round in '16.

It's unfortunate that health cut his career short, but he still finished with 106 WS and 32 K Minutes Played from a longevity standpoint. You also have to have solid longevity to get to 11 All-Star Appearances.

I take Bosh > Parker & Worthy because I felt that Bosh was more of a needle mover than those two - he has 30% more WS than Worthy which is material & I don't get excited about Parker's peak.

I can't go with Daniels here - too many concerns about the time he peaked & he has pretty awful longevity. He's not someone I'd support til the end & I think that other ABA MVPS (Cunningham, Beaty) have stronger cases in general - not to mention that Hawkins has an elite peak. I'm not impressed by the game tape I've seen of him.

----------------------------

I think Nance gets lost in the shuffle a bit historically.

I don't have much time here, so I'll post game tape & hope that gets me a foot in the door with some folks.



Note that he takes the opening tip at age 32 over taller Brad Daugherty.

Shows good range, intelligent movement without the ball, quality passer, strong help defender, solid post moves. He has solid longevity with 110 WS and generally played well in the playoffs (the video I posted was a closeout where Cleveland lost).

A typical year is 19-8-3-1 steal, 2.5 blocks on really strong shooting metrics with good turnover economy especially for a big and good help defense.

I'd rather have 12 years of that than anything anyone else has to offer at this stage after Bosh is off the board.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75 

Post#5 » by Clyde Frazier » Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:11 pm

Vote 1 - Hal Greer

Vote 2 - Carmelo Anthony

- 15 year career (all with same franchise)
- 7x all NBA 2nd team
- 1 top 10 MVP finish
- Sixers all time leader in games played, minutes played, FGM, total points

Looking at greer, cunningham and carmelo. Also compared them to brand and parker. I came away most impressed with greer’s overall body of work. He had marked consistency throughout his career, along with impressive durability and longevity for his time. He played in 79+ games in 10 of his 15 seasons, which spanned from 59-73. He scored on above average efficiency relative to his era, putting up the following #s from 61-70:

22 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 4.4 APG, 45.4% FG, 80.3% FT (6 FTAs per game), 51% TS, .135 WS/48

He performed similarly in the playoffs, playing a major role in the 67 sixers championship run, commonly considered one of the best teams of all time:

27.7 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 5.3 APG, 42.9% FG, 79.7% FT (7.9 FTAs per game), 48.7% TS (league avg that yr 49.3%), .130 WS/48

"I knew Hal when I got there [as the Sixers' business manager] in '68. I was with him for one year," said Pat Williams, who was raised in Wilmington and later became the Sixers' general manager for 12 seasons. "Tough little bulldog. He was tough as nails. And quiet. Didn't talk much ... but would just go out and perform. Maybe the best middle distance jump shooter of all-time. You could argue that. That 15-, 16-, 17-foot range. It was like a layup to him.”


http://www.apbr.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=4498

It’s been echoed elsewhere that he had the best mid range jumper of his generation. Also effective on both ends of the floor, and could post you up on either baseline. Stayed within the confines of his game, which ultimately led to team success. If he had range out to 17 feet, it stands to reason he would’ve been able to develop a 3 pointer in this era.

Some great videos on the 67 sixers from (I believe) our own Dipper 13:





More insight on Greer per Dipper 13 (be sure to click spoiler):

Tremendous athlete as well, great agility & quickness and could stop on a dime and pull up. It is not surprising to see Greer fall this low, seeing as he apparently was underrated by most even during his playing days. Not being a self promoter or big interview with the press will do that, plus he was overshadowed by Wilt during some of his best years. I'm sure if the Sixers had repeated in 1968, then Greer would have been voted in well before this point. Wilt even said he was on par with Robertson or West, for what it is worth.

Spoiler:
Season of the 76ers: the story of Wilt Chamberlain and the 1967 NBA champions - Wayne Lynch

"I think I'm better than the fourth guard," Greer told reporters. "You gotta realize that Oscar is the greatest. Jerry West is right behind Oscar, but I think I should be up there. I think I'm on a par with West.

Dynasty's End: Bill Russell And the 1968-69 World Champion Boston Celtics - Thomas J. Whalen

"Hal needs a certain amount of recognition to show people that he's on par with Robertson and West," All-Star teammate Wilt Chamberlain said afterward.

Greer needed no convincing himself. He knew he was the equal of any elite guard in the league, and that included Sam Jones of the Celtics. "He's on a team where they work for him," Greer said. "Our team is balanced. We're a team all the way. We don't work for one guy. Sam doesn't really have to work for his shots. They work for him. He's strictly offense, I'm offense plus I move the ball, too. I move on the fast break." Always intense and demanding of himself as a player, Greer strove for nothing short of basketball perfection in every contest. "After a game," he once revealed, "I think about the mistakes I made on defense that night. Sometimes I stay up all night thinking about defense, like after I've been chasing Oscar all over the court. That's enough to keep any man awake."'


The Sun - Nov 16, 1965

It's generally acknowledged in basketball circles that there are three superstar backcourters, Oscar Robertson, Jerry West and Sam Jones . . . and then there's Philadelphia's Hal Greer. Greer is the most underrated player in the league. He's among the top five in my opinion. Teammate Al Bianchi adds, "He has to be one of the greatest backcourt shooters ever." He rates with Sharman, Robertson, and West when it comes to hitting the 15-20 foot jumper.

The league alerted everybody about West and Bailey Howell nearing 10,000 points. Forgot Greer of course. "My wife and I talk about it a lot", admits the eight year veteran who climbed over the 10,000 figure with 33 tallies at New York's expense Saturday night. Howell and West reached it Sunday. "I don't like it but what can you do about it. As long as we're winning that's the important thing. The ink is all right but winning is the thing. I think I'm better than the fourth guard in the league."


The Black Athlete: Emergence & Arrival - 1968

No one in basketball is more effective than Hal Greer at sprinting down the middle of the court on a fast break, stopping just beyond the keyhole and scoring on a jump shot. "Hal," said one NBA coach, "has the finest middle-distance shot in the game." From fifteen to eighteen feet, Greer is more deadly than the Big O." At 6 ft. 3 in. and 178 pounds, Greer frequently gives away 40 pounds and 6 inches to NBA adversaries assigned to shutting off the middle. The key to Greer's success, therefore, is maneuverability and speed. Particularly speed.

Great teams of pro basketball - 1971

First there was Hal Greer, one of the best guards in the game. He was fast. "I must be fast," Greer said, "always, always quick. The day I slow down I'm finished." And he was a constant scoring threat. Said his former coach, Dolph Schayes, "Hal has the finest middle-distance shot in the game. From 15 to 18 feet, Hal is more deadly than Oscar Robertson." At 6'2", 175 pounds, Greer was agile, strong and not prone to injury. An eight-year veteran of NBA play, he could be counted on to average 20 points a game and contribute steadily in assists.

The Game Within the Game - Walt Frazier

Image

Hal Greer: Productive, Consistent and Durable

This article originally appeared in the January 2006 issue of Hoop.

Star Guard on a Team for the Ages

Hal Greer made the All-NBA Second Team seven straight years but never was selected to the All-NBA First Team. That’s what happens when you play during the same era as Oscar Robertson and Jerry West, but Greer--a 10-time All-Star who was honored as one of the NBA’s 50 Greatest Players--accomplished something that neither Robertson nor West did: being the leading playoff scorer on a team that defeated Bill Russell’s Boston Celtics in the playoffs and went on to win an NBA championship.

Russell’s Celtics won eight straight titles and 11 in 13 seasons, but many observers still maintain that the greatest single season team in NBA history is the 1966-67 Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers beat Boston 4-1 in the Eastern Division finals and then defeated the Rick Barry-Nate Thurmond San Francisco Warriors in the NBA Finals. Greer produced 27.7 ppg, 5.9 rpg and 5.3 apg in the playoffs, while his teammate Wilt Chamberlain posted these mind-boggling numbers: 21.7 ppg, 29.1 rpg and 9.0 apg. Hall of Famer and Top 50 selection Billy Cunningham, the sixth man on the 1967 championship team, says, “Hal Greer was such a smart player. In his mind he had a book about every player he played against and what he had to do to make sure that he got free to get shots. He was probably as fine a screener as a guard as anybody. The thing about it was he knew that if he set a good screen then he would be open because he would force a switch and he would end up being matched up with a bigger, slower player that he knew he could easily beat to get whatever shot he wanted.”

Remember the old shoe commercial with playground legend Lamar Mundane? The voiceover said that Mundane would shoot as soon as he crossed midcourt and the fans would yell, “Layup!” That would be a good way to describe Hal Greer’s top of the key jump shot; Sixers coach Alex Hannum said that Greer made that shot at a 70% clip and gave Greer the green light to launch from that range whenever he was open. Greer’s jump shot was so fluid and so deadly that he shot his free throws that way, connecting on better than 80% of his career attempts. Cunningham offers high praise for Greer’s jump shot: “It was as good as anybody’s who ever played the game. I think the beauty of Hal Greer’s game is that he knew where he was most effective and he never shot the ball from an area where he was not completely confident and comfortable. He never went outside of 18-20 feet maximum, but he was deadly and he had the ability to get to that spot.”


The Palm Beach Post - Apr 2, 1967

"Greer plays the complete game,' said Hannum, "He's an offensive threat every minute he's in there. He has the perfect disposition, is well liked by everybody. We wouldn't have near the record this team has without Hal. You hear about our powerful front line of Wilt, Luke Jackson, Chet Walker and Billy Cunningham, but Greer's outside shooting helps make this possible."

Greer admits that the toughest guard in the league against him is Boston's K.C. Jones, but denies the rap placed on him by some writers that he gets "K.C.-itus"

"The three best games of my career have been against Boston," he notes. "I scored 50 points against them my first year in the league, 45 against them here, and 38 this season in Boston."

While he is recognized generally as one of the top offensive players in the game, few people are aware that Greer can play defense with the best. Often, Hannum will send Greer after Oscar Robertson, Jerry West, Rick Barry, or Sam Jones, at least until the 76ers' guard gets into foul difficulty.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75 

Post#6 » by mischievous » Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:49 am

How will a 13+ spot gap exist between Wilkins and Melo? They had like almost the same careers.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75 

Post#7 » by dhsilv2 » Wed Dec 27, 2017 1:04 pm

mischievous wrote:How will a 13+ spot gap exist between Wilkins and Melo? They had like almost the same careers.


WS career rank Wilkins 51st Melo 86th
VORP Career Rank Wilkins 53rd Melo 108th
PER Wilkins 39th Melo 57th

Seems like 13+ spots should be expected as their stats aren't all that close.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75 

Post#8 » by Owly » Wed Dec 27, 2017 1:42 pm

mischievous wrote:How will a 13+ spot gap exist between Wilkins and Melo? They had like almost the same careers.

Depends what kind of answer you want and the reason for asking...

If genuine methodological question ...
1) The panel can change over time.
2) The voting methodology requires only a top two finish and then the majority of those votes plus any run-off and secondary votes, which may well not include the full panel.
3) A small number of highly split first preference voters means there's fairly little preference information involoved in getting you to runoff (perhaps one early voter and one later voter perhaps using a second preference to decide out of those that have support).

All the above could cause inconsistencies. Different voting systems might change which problems occur to what degree, but all will have their issues. In any case, the debate is considered the priority here. It is also the case that the further out you go the smaller the gaps, so a "13 spot gap" isn't really a standardised, meaningul unit of measure as the average of those gaps could be infinitesimally small, or very large, depending on which "13 spot gap" it is.


If a Wilkins is too high, how did he get where he did ...
See thread 62.


If a Melo will be too low, how is he not in yet ...
See present (and post 62 threads) voters reasoning on their choices (stating why their choice is the best player available and thus implicitly, better than Melo).


If a non-methodological "I mentally anchor Wilkins and Melo, why don't you?"
1) You could look at what voters prized in Wilkins in the 62 thread and if you think it to be inconsistent, or find Melo to have those properties, quote and debate here.
2) People will have different criteria. It might be easier to answer if you spell out what it is that you value and why you think there isn't a gap.
3) Wilkins has still, thus far, played more career regular season minutes, with better rate statistics. Rating for this project is done up to the start of the present season, so (regardless of Melo's opportunity to overtake in the future) Melo ranks behind on all basketball-references boxscore-y composite metrics in both rate and career value forms. Now Nique is one of the larger playoff falloff guys in purely statistical terms (one might compensate at the margins for a tough conference), so as before your mileage may vary, depending on what you weight heavily.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75 

Post#9 » by penbeast0 » Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:05 pm

mischievous wrote:How will a 13+ spot gap exist between Wilkins and Melo? They had like almost the same careers.


1. the differences at this point are very small

2. Nique may be early

3. Intangibles. Nique was an extremely popular player and ambassador for the game. He was classy and stayed as the face of the Hawks for almost his whole career and then never complained when they dealt him at the end of his career. Melo had the drama and the year of leaving for NY in Denver then the drama with Phil Jackson culminating in his leaving for Oklahoma. That stuff matters too.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75 

Post#10 » by trex_8063 » Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:32 pm

Thru post #9:

Hal Greer - 1 (Clyde Frazier)
Chris Bosh - 1 (pandrade83)
Tony Parker - 1 (trex_8063)
Mel Daniels - 1 (penbeast0)


Will possibly leave this one another 24 hours (or close to that, unless we get a flurry of activity thru the day today) until runoff.


Spoiler:
eminence wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

PaulieWal wrote:.

Colbinii wrote:.

Texas Chuck wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dr Spaceman wrote:.

fpliii wrote:.

euroleague wrote:.

pandrade83 wrote:.

Hornet Mania wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

SactoKingsFan wrote:.

Blackmill wrote:.

JordansBulls wrote:.

RSCS3_ wrote:.

BasketballFan7 wrote:.

micahclay wrote:.

ardee wrote:.

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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75 

Post#11 » by pandrade83 » Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:00 pm

Other points of differentiation - beyond career totals:

On PER, Nique has 6 of the best 8 seasons.
On WS, Nique has the 4 best seasons.
On VORP, Nique has the best 3 seasons & his 4th is tied with Melo's best.

On Team success, Nique was pretty clearly the best player on 3 teams that advanced past the 1st round - would've been "co-best" on a 4th team that would've won a Division Title but he got traded to the Clippers (hard to blame Atlanta - Nique was 34 and would exit his prime immediately following that year). As "the guy", Nique misses the playoffs just twice (not counting the Clipper year - they were already out once he got there) - once due to an ACL Tear - the only time during his prime where he would miss meaningful time. Even after getting traded to the Clippers, they went on a 4 game winning streak shortly after his arrival.

Melo was pretty clearly the 2nd best player on a team that got to the WCF ('09) and even though the Nuggets make the playoffs every year he's there, he is not the undisputed best player any year except '06 - the only year he leads the team in WS.

Denver doesn't take a huge step back or anything once they move him. The Knicks make the playoffs each of his 1st 3 seasons - culminating in the '13 run where they finally win a series - the only time Melo is the best player on a team that does so btw - and then missed the next 4 times.

I felt like Melo was a professional during his time in NY. The situation these last few years was a total disaster from an org standpoint. I don't blame him for the clashes - but I don't think his style is conducive to winning. He spends way too much time just holding the ball in the mid-range.

For me both the stats & impact on winning clearly point to Nique - to the point where I don't think reasonable minds can disagree. And at this stage, 13 spots is not material.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75 

Post#12 » by mischievous » Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:05 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
mischievous wrote:How will a 13+ spot gap exist between Wilkins and Melo? They had like almost the same careers.


WS career rank Wilkins 51st Melo 86th
VORP Career Rank Wilkins 53rd Melo 108th
PER Wilkins 39th Melo 57th

Seems like 13+ spots should be expected as their stats aren't all that close.

The VORP gap is big which i never realized, but their career PER is only 0.9 apart so saying they are 18 places apart overstates the gap especially when Melo has an edge in ts%.

Then in the playoffs Melo has the edge in PER, WS, BPM etc.

In any case, they look very similar statistically for raw and advanced stats in the the regular and playoffs, and have similar mediocre success. Both poor defenders who’s offense fell in the playoffs.

I’d probably rank Wilkins higher, but again the gap shouldn’t be big.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75 

Post#13 » by dhsilv2 » Wed Dec 27, 2017 5:02 pm

mischievous wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
mischievous wrote:How will a 13+ spot gap exist between Wilkins and Melo? They had like almost the same careers.


WS career rank Wilkins 51st Melo 86th
VORP Career Rank Wilkins 53rd Melo 108th
PER Wilkins 39th Melo 57th

Seems like 13+ spots should be expected as their stats aren't all that close.

The VORP gap is big which i never realized, but their career PER is only 0.9 apart so saying they are 18 places apart overstates the gap especially when Melo has an edge in ts%.

Then in the playoffs Melo has the edge in PER, WS, BPM etc.

In any case, they look very similar statistically for raw and advanced stats in the the regular and playoffs, and have similar mediocre success. Both poor defenders who’s offense fell in the playoffs.

I’d probably rank Wilkins higher, but again the gap shouldn’t be big.


The WS gap is still 35 spots and I'm including this year stats for Melo. I don't put much weight on PER, but the fact that there's still a gap of nearly 20 spots and Wilkins has 2,778 more minutes before this season started, the 0.9 gap is meaningful imo.

Wilkins has 6 10+ WS seasons (a metric I look at and consider somewhat important) vs Melo with 1. Peak VORP for Melo was 4.2 which is very good, but his second best was 2.9. Nik has 7 seasons over 2.9.

I tend to think Nik was better defensively for whatever that's worth by a decent bit.

Edit:

There is also a strong gap in MVP voting. 2 top 10's for Melo vs 5 for Nik. Melo's best was 3rd and Nik's best was second.

And as for playoffs, neither did enough for me to look that closely at their playoffs in this kind of comparison. Both are under 100 playoff games. Both mostly lost in the first round which again makes it hard to judge as the quality of higher seeds is inconsistent plus you'd expect a player's stats to drop if they're against a high seed.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75 

Post#14 » by Narigo » Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:44 pm

Hey Penbeast0,



What do you think Mel Daniels teammate, George McGinnis?

He won a ABA MVP in 1975. Led the Pacers to a ABA Championship and was more successful in the NBA. He was fifth in MVP voting in the NBA in 1976, his first year in the League
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75 

Post#15 » by trex_8063 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:05 am

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

mischievous wrote:.


Quoting you two because Clyde is one poster who's actually cast a ballot for Melo, and mischievous because he asked the question about the separation between Melo and Nique........I had this long post mostly made up when my computer just spontaneously shut down and it was unable to recover the chrome session. FFFFFUUUUUUUU.............

I'm sorry, I just don't have the time or stamina to put it all back together tonight (and much of it has been covered already). wrt to Melo vs. Nique, it boiled down to a few things:
1) Nique having a clear statistical edge in the rs (Melo does have the edge in ps, though it's a somewhat lacking sample size----relative to other all-time greats----for both, and neither has a glowing ps resume).
2) fwiw, Nique holds the edge in both MVP shares and a small edge in awards/honors.
3) Melo often looks questionable in terms of impact: he mostly looks fairly good in terms of WOWY studies, though it's very hit or miss (if incorporate before/after studies). On/off, outside of a couple seasons, is mostly underwhelming for a star of his repute and box-based metrics. And RAPM does not rate him well at all (see my above vote post as I showed Tony Parker RAPM vs other relevant individuals---including Melo, who was a clear last among those listed).
Nique meanwhile has consistently positive WOWY studies and to his credit led multiple elite offenses with primary supporting casts of Doc Rivers, Randy Whitman, Cliff Levingston, Tree Rollins, etc.


Scouting (aka "How did this happen?")
pandrade83 mentioned already that Melo kinda holds the ball on the perimeter or mid-range a lot. Not quite as much as Dantley, perhaps, but kind of a lot. And unlike with someone like Lebron or Harden (who do hold the ball a lot), the teammates kinda stop moving because there's no real expectation that Melo is going to find them if they keep moving.
Nique wasn't a playmaker either, but he wasn't often stationary in this manner. He generally attacked more or less immediately, rather than allow defenders (and defenses in general) to get set.

Melo also takes far too many mid-range shots (from '06-'17, 51.5% of all his attempts came between 3-23 feet [28.1% from 16-23 feet]); he's a good shooter in these ranges, but whereas many other premiere scorers have recognized that these are simply not high% shots [and thus shouldn't be the main staple of their attack], Melo has made them the bulk of his attack, and often doesn't even try to get to the rim. He'll frequently stand there in triple-threat position, maybe jab-step, take one dribble and pull-up for contested 15-22 footers; he does this.....kind of a lot.

Nique, in addition to attacking quickly, was---in my impression---more often attacking the paint area. Not that he always to the rim or line (his FTr is actually marginally less than Melo's), but he'd get a lot of shots like one dribble from the elbow, spin move the other direction and put up a short-range bank-shot. These types of attacks to the paint area forced rotations, getting defenders out of position, potentially increasing the likelihood of offensive rebounds even when he missed the shot (those Hawks teams were almost exclusively elite in OREB% during Nique's prime, and fell to mediocre after he left). Mid-range shots, by comparison, generally carry a lower potential for offensive rebound.

On the subject of offensive rebounding, Nique was also a significantly better offensive rebounding forward compared to Melo. Additionally, Nique had a marginally lower turnover rate, even with an eye on how much playmaking they did.

And defensively, while Nique was not good, I don't think he was worse than Carmelo Anthony. It's in these ways that I think he was more impactful (or just generally "better", if you prefer) than Carmelo Anthony.


fwiw, the questionable offensive impact (possibly due to my observations noted above) combined with the poor defense is why I think there are at least a handful of better candidates than Melo still on the table.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75 

Post#16 » by trex_8063 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:07 am

Thru post #15:

Hal Greer - 1 (Clyde Frazier)
Chris Bosh - 1 (pandrade83)
Tony Parker - 1 (trex_8063)
Mel Daniels - 1 (penbeast0)


Still the count. ~10 hours left till I'm going to send this one to runoff.


Spoiler:
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Clyde Frazier wrote:.

PaulieWal wrote:.

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pandrade83 wrote:.

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kayess wrote:.

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Doctor MJ wrote:.

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Moonbeam wrote:.

Cyrusman122000 wrote:.

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90sAllDecade wrote:.

Outside wrote:.

scabbarista wrote:.

janmagn wrote:.

Arman_tanzarian wrote:.

oldschooled wrote:.

Pablo Novi wrote:.

john248 wrote:.

mdonnelly1989 wrote:.

Senior wrote:.

twolves97 wrote:.

CodeBreaker wrote:.

JoeMalburg wrote:.

dhsilv2 wrote:.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75 

Post#17 » by pandrade83 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:18 am

trex_8063 wrote:
Clyde Frazier wrote:.

mischievous wrote:.


Quoting you two because Clyde is one poster who's actually cast a ballot for Melo, and mischievous because he asked the question about the separation between Melo and Nique........I had this long post mostly made up when my computer just spontaneously shut down and it was unable to recover the chrome session. FFFFFUUUUUUUU.............

I'm sorry, I just don't have the time or stamina to put it all back together tonight (and much of it has been covered already). wrt to Melo vs. Nique, it boiled down to a few things:
1) Nique having a clear statistical edge in the rs (Melo does have the edge in ps, though it's a somewhat lacking sample size----relative to other all-time greats----for both, and neither has a glowing ps resume).
2) fwiw, Nique holds the edge in both MVP shares and a small edge in awards/honors.
3) Melo often looks questionable in terms of impact: he mostly looks fairly good in terms of WOWY studies, though it's very hit or miss (if incorporate before/after studies). On/off, outside of a couple seasons, is mostly underwhelming for a star of his repute and box-based metrics. And RAPM does not rate him well at all (see my above vote post as I showed Tony Parker RAPM vs other relevant individuals---including Melo, who was a clear last among those listed).
Nique meanwhile has consistently positive WOWY studies and to his credit led multiple elite offenses with primary supporting casts of Doc Rivers, Randy Whitman, Cliff Levingston, Tree Rollins, etc.


Scouting (aka "How did this happen?")
pandrade83 mentioned already that Melo kinda holds the ball on the perimeter or mid-range a lot. Not quite as much as Dantley, perhaps, but kind of a lot. And unlike with someone like Lebron or Harden (who do hold the ball a lot), the teammates kinda stop moving because there's no real expectation that Melo is going to find them if they keep moving.
Nique wasn't a playmaker either, but he didn't hold the ball. He generally attacked more or less immediately, rather than allow defenders (and defenses in general) to get set.

Melo also takes far too many mid-range shots (from '06-'17, 51.5% of all his attempts came between 3-23 feet [28.1% from 16-23 feet]); he's a good shooter in these ranges, but whereas many other premiere scorers have recognized that these are not high% shots [and thus shouldn't be the main staple of their attack], Melo often doesn't even try to attack the rim. He'll stand there in triple-threat position, maybe jab-step, take one dribble and pull-up for contested 15-22 footers; he really kinda does that a lot.

Nique, in addition to attacking quickly, was---in my impression---more often attacking the paint area. Not that he always to the rim or line (his FTr is actually marginally less than Melo's), but he'd get a lot of shots like one dribble from the elbow, spin move the other direction and put up a short-range bank-shot. These types of attacks to the paint area forced rotations, getting defenders out of position, potentially increasing the likelihood of offensive rebounds even when he missed the shot (those Hawks teams were almost exclusively elite in OREB% during Nique's prime, and fell to mediocre after he left). Mid-range shots, by comparison, generally carry a lower potential for offensive rebound.

On the subject of offensive rebounding, Nique was also a significantly better offensive rebounding forward compared to Melo. Additionally, Nique had a marginally lower turnover rate, even with an eye on how much playmaking they did.

And defensively, while Nique was not good, I don't think he was worse than Carmelo Anthony. It's in these ways that I think he was more impactful (or just generally "better", if you prefer) than Carmelo Anthony.


fwiw, the questionable offensive impact (possibly due to my observations noted above) combined with the poor defense is why I think there are at least a handful of better candidates than Melo still on the table.


Just a touch too young to have seen prime Dantley, but I swear Melo is the worst I've ever seen at this (potential Knicks fan bias alert). I called it the clogged toilet before I knew that's what Simmons called Pierce's iso game - but Melo does it more frequently and is a less willing passer than Pierce. Maybe Dantley is worse - but Melo is the king of the clogged toilet for any avid hoops fan under, let's say, 40.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75 

Post#18 » by dhsilv2 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:29 am

I want to apologize for posting bad numbers last time. I don't mind typos or even poorly thought out arguments...but bad data is something I really hate posting and publishing. I'll update the old links as well.

As I said in the last post due to PER love (I'd use WS in a second over this) I wanted to test the top 2 guards on the board in Greer and Parker. They are both here due to longevity and being key scorers on title teams. `I'm not sure either would be considered if not for both aspects. One will need to however analyize the data being aware of league size which I've attempted to at least give you some idea of at the top. I will not stand by the top numbers being 100% accurate, they were not tested and are likely slightly overstating due to player trades and the way basketball reference provides data. Again they are JUST to give some rough context.

Greer

Spoiler:
Image


Greer came up in an 8 team league so keep in mind there were only 16 starting guards in the league and I did note that a lot of small forwards moved in and out of guard roles at times. This was a big man's league so those trying to look at PER as a raw number are seeing one of two things. Either guards just sucked on the whole (PER's are lower than we see today) or rules changes drove it. The alternative and likely correct answer of course is always a hybrid, but I'd say that at the top it was driven more by rules and era than poor talent. I tend to think the lower half of the league guards were due to era and poor scouting / not enough money to recruit all top prospects.

Greer from 61-69 (9 straight years) was top 5 8 of the years and 6th once. Also worth pointing out that Terry Dischinger was only listed as a guard in 65, otherwise that would be 9 straight top 5 seasons. Confidentially, Terry and Gene Shue are the only guys not in the hall of fame to rank ahead of Greer during this stretch. We then see 59 and 60 as well as 70 and 71 look like quality starter seasons, but certainly nothing to get overly excited about.

Parker

Spoiler:
Image


Full disclosure, I ran this using excel and basketball reference data. It's a full data set of all basketball reference seasons and to be blunt excel isn't great at working with much data, and I don't tend to work with the data itself when I do these things, so this was a rather crude formula driven approach. Or in short, this took like an hour to run for Parker and it locked my computer up so yeah, that's why I stopped at 25. All ears if anyone has a better approach for this kind of work, I'm not a huge fan of access but that's my other easy alternative, but any free and relatively low learning curve options would be great.

Anyway to Parker, a league going from 8 to 30 teams I'd assume a top 5 is now a top 15 and that's likely not fully accurate.

Parker has 8 top 20 seasons and a 22nd, with him missing the top 25 in 2010. 5th in 2009 and 6th in 2012 (and yes the Brandon jennings ranking is correct). Now color me skeptical, but Parker has a pretty long history of getting banged up and 2012 was a lockout year so just keep that in mind.

Anyway, I did all of this with an opinion of Greer being better, but having zero idea where this would take me. I am actually a bit more impressed with Parker as his missed games and minute rationing I thought would pull him down. It doesn't appear to have been that big of an issue. I do however still feel this data overall makes my view of Greer a good one. Greer had 9 high quality years by my measures to Parker's 8 while playing in an era of shorter careers.

Greer's playoffs are a mixed bag where i see some weak years, but I also see a lot of quality ones. Short playoffs make judging this rather difficult. Still he was the leading scorer on a title team in 67 and he had a great playoff run in 68. I have a feeling someone is going to look at 68 and point out that Greer shot terribly in game 7 against the celtics despite good rebounds and assists. But go look at his game 6 which was an elimination game. 40 points on 15-24. Wilt shot 28.6% on 21 shots in that same game.

Anyway scouting report - Shooting Guard with a good mid range jumper that likely translates to 3's today. Not a finisher at the rim, and likely a good spacers for the era. Above average TS% and not considered a bad defender. Durable player.

7x all nba second team
10x allstar
78th all time in WS with 3 top 10 seasons despite being a guard in a big man era.

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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75 

Post#19 » by pandrade83 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:39 am

One last qualitative note on Anthony:

I don't blame him at all for the things that transpired these last few years in NY. He was treated poorly by management & conducted himself like a professional. He always played hard when he was on the court - no-shows weren't common for him. I'll always respect him for that. It would've been really easy for him to turn cancerous - but one game I'll always remember from last year - mired in a deep slump, the Knicks hosted the Spurs on ABC - & for one game - Melo was the best player on the court in a Knicks victory and he really competed even though he was battling with injuries.

That said - 3 major things that bug me about his time in NY - why I won't miss him & why I don't think of the Melo era fondly.

1) I felt like he cared more about making $$$ and living in NY & playing in MSG than he did winning a title. I know he's a human being just like me & we all have our own priorities - but that needs to be said.
2) He unquestionably stunted KP's development and refused to allow KP to step into the spotlight. He also helped create Amare's irrelevancy. He's just a selfish player who doesn't mesh well with other stars. There's a reason why Billups was the best player on the team that finally broke through in Denver - and they kept getting beat in the 2nd round with Iverson.
3) Culturally, he degrades the team's commitment to defense. Not only can he not be your best player - you actually need your best player to be a defensive oriented vocal leader in order to enjoy any sort of team success. Even the '13 team that Knicks fans are more nostalgic about than they should be was slightly below average on Defense - and that's with Chandler. Again - another reason why Denver only advanced when they had Billups in something that could be resembled his prime.

I don't think I'll be supporting him til the back half of the 80's.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #75 

Post#20 » by dhsilv2 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:51 am

pandrade83 wrote:
Just a touch too young to have seen prime Dantley, but I swear Melo is the worst I've ever seen at this (potential Knicks fan bias alert). I called it the clogged toilet before I knew that's what Simmons called Pierce's iso game - but Melo does it more frequently and is a less willing passer than Pierce. Maybe Dantley is worse - but Melo is the king of the clogged toilet for any avid hoops fan under, let's say, 40.


I haven't seen much of Dantley (thank you youtube for allowing me to see any), but he reminds me a bit of Chuck. His holding the ball would draw in defenders eventually creating spacing/openings. I'd need to see more to see how well he passed out of there though. But it felt like he was doing something when i watched him where has melo it just feels like nothing is happening.

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