RealGM 2017 Top 100 #77 (Shawn Marion)

Post #1 » by **trex_8063** » Mon Jan 1, 2018 6:43 pm

1. Michael Jordan
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3. Lebron James
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kobe Bryant
12. Kevin Garnett
13. Oscar Robertson
14. Karl Malone
15. Jerry West
16. Julius Erving
17. Dirk Nowitzki
18. David Robinson
19. Charles Barkley
20. Moses Malone
21. John Stockton
22. Dwyane Wade
23. Chris Paul
24. Bob Pettit
25. George Mikan
26. Steve Nash
27. Patrick Ewing
28. Kevin Durant
29. Stephen Curry
30. Scottie Pippen
31. John Havlicek
32. Elgin Baylor
33. Clyde Drexler
34. Rick Barry
35. Gary Payton
36. Artis Gilmore
37. Jason Kidd
38. Walt Frazier
39. Isiah Thomas
40. Kevin McHale
41. George Gervin
42. Reggie Miller
43. Paul Pierce
44. Dwight Howard
45. Dolph Schayes
46. Bob Cousy
47. Ray Allen
48. Pau Gasol
49. Wes Unseld
50. Robert Parish
51. Russell Westbrook
52. Alonzo Mourning
53. Dikembe Mutombo
54. Manu Ginobili
55. Chauncey Billups
56. Willis Reed
57. Bob Lanier
58. Allen Iverson
59. Adrian Dantley
60. Dave Cowens
61. Elvin Hayes
62. Dominique Wilkins
63. Vince Carter
64. Alex English
65. Tracy McGrady
66. James Harden
67. Nate Thurmond
68. Sam Jones
69. Kevin Johnson
70. Bob McAdoo
71. Sidney Moncrief
72. Paul Arizin
73. Grant Hill
74. Bobby Jones
75. Chris Bosh
76. Tony Parker
77. ????

Go!

Spoiler:

Post #2 » by **penbeast0** » Mon Jan 1, 2018 6:54 pm

Starting to get to the pretty good for awhile type players. But, I tend to prefer the strong impact for about 5 years over the good but not great for 10 types (though I don't get desperate enough to vote for Walton as great as he was in his one complete year as a starter).

Vote: Mel Daniels
Alternate: James Worthy

Mel Daniels is certainly the only multiple MVP winner left. Daniels was the best player on two championship teams plus a willing support role on a third championship though in a weak league (probably better than the pre-Russell 50s though). I tend to value defense, particularly for big men, and Mel was basically the original Alonzo Mourning with more rebounding but less shotblocking. He was a 1st round NBA pick (the first to sign with the ABA) and in the NBA would probably have been one of the best centers as well, not in the Jabbar league but then neither was anyone else, but contending with Unseld/Cowens for the rebounding leaderboard and 2nd team All-Defense and with 15-20ppg scoring on limited range (He did a lot of outside shooting his first year . . . badly; coaching of the day didn't like centers out of the post though). Like Zo, his playmaking was mediocre but in addition to strong rebounding and defense, he was Indiana's intimidator, in a league where everyone was trying to make a name for themselves. And, he did it without major foul trouble issues. The two MVPs show he was valued above his box scores.

James Worthy and Shawn Marion are the two main guys I am looking at now, Nance should be in there too and I may edit something in here for him. Carmelo . . . no; he's not good enough to make a meh team competitive and hasn't shown the ability (yet, there may be hope for him this season) to adapt his game to fit into a team with other outstanding talent other than an "alternating iso" stretch with Iverson in Denver. I'd rather have a guy who plays excellent defense and ego-free, high efficiency, off ball offense like the 3 above than a guy who will score a lot of points without bringing much else to the table.

Worthy is a guy who can create for himself from the post and one of the great open court finishers ever. A bit less range than Jones and a weaker rebounder, also a decent passer. His calling card are some terrific playoff scoring games.

Shawn Marion. Terrific help defender approaching the 2 block/2 steal level at times; he sometimes seemed to be everywhere in Phoenix covering for Amare and Nash while still scoring 20ppg. Outstanding off ball movement and excellent rebounder. Two caveats: First, his playoffs were not good as he was beaten by lesser players like Lamar Odom. Second, he did apparently whine about his role in Phoenix. He also benefited tremendously from playing with Steve Nash if you look at his efficiency with Nash v. without.

Bill Sharman is probably the best 50s guy left, Greer or Bellamy from the 60s (Bells wasn't a great team player but it was a center's league). Paul Silas or David Thompson from the 70s? Worthy from the 80s (ahead of Bernard King or Mark Aquirre who were the Carmelos of their day). Rodman from the 90s. Marion from the 00s. Mark Gasol of Kawhi Leonard for active players? Help me out here, I know I'm forgetting some legit contenders.

Post #3 » by **trex_8063** » Mon Jan 1, 2018 7:08 pm

1st vote: Shawn Marion
Shawn Marion is to some degree a guy who gets in here out of longevity consideration, as he was a "useful" player for probably a solid 13 or so seasons (and not often injured). He was pretty darn good in his prime, though; not a franchise player obviously, but as is often been said recently: we're kinda well past the point in the list where that is a requisite [for the vast majority of us, anyway].
In the heart of his prime he could potentially (in the right setting) be the best player on a fringe playoff team; otherwise could be the 2nd-best player on a VERY good team, more or less an ideal 3rd-best type player for a solid contender. He provided some spacing from the SF (or combo forward) spot and hit some open treys (career 33.1%, closer to 35% in his prime), excellent running and finishing in transition, good instincts as a cutter filling the lane if he had a good playmaker to find him, and more than a solid FT-shooter despite the odd shooting form (81.0% for his career). Though listed only 6'7", his high-set shoulders and long arms effectively gave him the length of someone more like 6'9", I think, and he was one of the quickest "second jumpers" ever, imo.......this aided him in getting some tip-ins and generally being one of the better offensive rebounding SF's of all-time.
In these ways he was capable of delivering anywhere from 16-17 to 21-22 ppg on fair to good efficiency, depending on his situation.

One of the best overall rebounding small forwards of all-time (again, the length, athleticism, and second-jumping quickness aided here). Career avg of 13.0 reb/100 possessions, TREB% of 14.3. In his 8-year prime was averaging 13.6 reb/100 and 15.0% TREB%. Just for comparison, Draymond Green '15-present has averaged 12.4 reb/100 with a TREB% of 13.9%.
Shawn Marion was no joke on the boards, especially considering played primarily SF.

Not very good handles and not a passer, but he seemed to instinctively know his limitations, which contributed to an excellent turnover economy. From '01-'08 (his prime) he averaged just 2.1 apg, but only 1.7 topg (that's with 18.9 ppg); also avg 2.0 spg and 1.4 bpg--->has two consecutive seasons ('06, '07) where he had more assists, steals, and blocks than he did turnovers (was really close in '05 and '08, too).
Which brings me around to the area where he provides a lot of value: defense. Surely one of the most underrated [in terms of honors, or lack thereof] defensive players of all-time. He could quite literally guard 1-4, and was an excellent help defender (again: nearly 1.5 bpg in his prime) who generated turnovers too (and without an excess of gambling). Living in PHX from '04 to '08, I saw A LOT (even a majority) of the Suns games in that span, so I've got a copious amount of "eye test" where Marion's prime is concerned.
And after his roughly 8-year prime, he transitioned nicely into role-player status and remained useful for some years, even being a crucial role player for the '11 champs.

In terms of career impact........

Utilizing the following sources for the following years:
'94-'96: colts18's rs-only APM.
'97-'00: ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt RAPM (PI for '98-'00, NPI for '97).
'01-'13: J.E.'s RAPM sheets (NPI for '01 and '12, PI for other years).
'14: the now "deceased" GotBuckets? website PI RAPM (*where available---there were a few players whom I didn't get around to adding to my spreadsheet until after the site went kaput, and I can't seem to locate any other source of RAPM data for '14; closest I've found was a IPV (Individual Player Value) metric on the Talking Practice blog (but I'm not a big fan of it))
'15-'17: J.E.'s RAPM googlesheets (PI used)
Also have some APM for '88-'93 for select members of the 76'ers (as +/- was being tracked by one of the execs at the time, and I forget who----Dipper? Elgee? someone....---ran a regression of the numbers).

......So from all of these sources, we have impact data going back basically two and a half decades (which covers pretty near half of the player seasons played in the NBA/ABA history).

And from those sources, here's how some noteworthies (for this stage of the project) rank in it Best 10 Years combined RAPM:
Chris Bosh (#75): +31.3
Dikembe Mutombo (#53): +29.05
Grant Hill (#73): +27.77
Tony Parker (#76): +26.83
Ben Wallace: +25.97
Shawn Marion: +24.7
Chris Webber: +21.03
Elton Brand: +20.4
Carmelo Anthony: +13.65

Best 12 Years:
Chris Bosh (#75): +32.34
Dikembe Mutombo (#53): +30.21
Tony Parker (#76): +29.23
Grant Hill (#73): +27.97
Ben Wallace: +26.07
Shawn Marion: +22.07
Elton Brand: +19.9
Chris Webber: +18.07
Carmelo Anthony: +11.75

A versatile defender with a reasonably high degree of offensive portability because he plays off-ball and has some sort of "universally useful traits" (spacing, offensive rebounding, transition finishing, etc).......this is a player profile that fits nicely into so many circumstances. So I really like his overall resume at this stage.

2nd vote: Ben Wallace
I was flip-flopping between two undersized centers who are basically polar opposites: one all-offense and no defense; the other all-defense and no offense (Dan Issel and B.Wallace). Issel has the longevity edge, though also played in a somewhat weaker league/era overall. This somewhat came down to a belief that offensive short-comings can more easily be masked [than defensive short-comings] in a center: just don't give him the ball. But defensively, the center is the last line of defense, essentially. It cannot be as easily masked as, for instance, a weak defensive perimeter player. This is somewhat theoretical, I admit. I don't have a nuanced impact study to substantiate this, but it's somewhat my hunch, and served as the tie-breaker here for two individuals that I basically have at the same spot on my ATL.
Big Ben's long-term impact imprint can be seen in those listed above.
Will try to make a post on Dan Issel later, to hopefully drum up support for this guy (who I view somewhat like Amar'e Stoudemire.....but with better longevity).

pandrade83 · Post #4 » by **pandrade83** » Tue Jan 2, 2018 12:46 am

Primary Vote: Larry Nance
Alternate: Shawn Marion

I think Nance gets lost in the shuffle a bit historically.

New Material since Post #75

Nance has a legit to clear claim for being the best player on 4 successful teams post merger - 2 Conference Finals teams ('84 Suns, '92 Cavs) the #1 team in SRS ('89 Cavs) & the #4 SRS team in '83 (Suns). Very few players left have that sort of capability. While it's true that the surrounding talent on those teams was all quite high - it takes a top level player to be of that caliber over teams spread that far apart. He leads all the aforementioned teams in WS & VORP & he has outstanding box score ORTG/DRTG differentials that lead those squads (+13, +12, +18, +20 respectively).

A typical year is 19-8-3-1 steal, 2.5 blocks on really strong shooting metrics with good turnover economy especially for a big and strong defense (3 X All-Defense) and he delivers 11 such years.

Amongst post merger remaining players, he is 6th in career WS & 2nd in VORP and 3rd in PER with career minutes exceeding 30 K.

In years where he suffers injuries in prime, the impact on team performance is clear.

'85 - 29-32 with, 7-14 without (+12)
'86 - 29-44 with, 3-6 without (+6)
'87 - 32-37 with, 4-9 without (+13)
'89 - 51-22 with, 6-3 without (+2)
'90 - 35-27 with, 7-13 without (+17)

Qualitatively there's a lot to love. I'll wrap up on a video against a playoff elimination game against one of the GOAT Teams - '92 Chicago when Nance is at age 32.

Watch on YouTube

Note that he takes the opening tip at age 32 over taller Brad Daugherty.

Nance shows good range, intelligent movement without the ball, quality passer, strong help defender, solid post moves.

I'd rather have 11 years of that than anything anyone else has to offer at this stage.

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Shawn Marion has a fairly straight forward case to be the next player in: He's #1 in career WS of remaining post merger players & #1 in career VORP of remaining post merger players. He notches 2 All-NBA performances in what is arguably the most difficult era for forwards, delivers 5 years of PER 20 +, 5 years of double digit WS including a stellar year at 14.6 and 4 years of VORP 5 or higher.

Those are not easy things to do. Additionally he is highly valued by the RAPM Figures that T-Rex posts above, which I'm not going to highlight here.

I take Nance over him by a hair (and a very short hair at that) - only because 1) on his most successful teams he was an EXCELLENT #2 - I think it's hard to make the case that he was the thing that made his teams go - more likely Nash was more responsible given it was offense. Nance has more of a case to be the best player on successful teams than Marion and 2) Nance was a better playoff performer than Marion (higher PER, WS/48, BPM).

Post #5 » by **trex_8063** » Tue Jan 2, 2018 2:01 am

fwiw, in addition to the aforementioned Dan Issel (who is my top HM), my other honorable mentions would include Dennis Rodman, Kawhi Leonard, James Worthy, Larry Nance, Carmelo Anthony, and Chris Webber; if anyone wants to discuss any of those (some discussion of Rodman already in the last thread). Are a few others guys barely behind them, as far as I'm concerned.

Post #6 » by **penbeast0** » Tue Jan 2, 2018 2:25 am

I thought about Kawhi but he's only got 2 elite seasons and maybe 3 more as a solid rotation player. I figured Marc Gasol's career value was higher, do you disagree?

You rate Anthony and Webber higher than I do. Nance and Rodman should be coming up soon though.

dhsilv2 · Post #7 » by **dhsilv2** » Tue Jan 2, 2018 3:54 am

penbeast0 wrote:I thought about Kawhi but he's only got 2 elite seasons and maybe 3 more as a solid rotation player. I figured Marc Gasol's career value was higher, do you disagree?

You rate Anthony and Webber higher than I do. Nance and Rodman should be coming up soon though.

Marc Gasol is an interesting case...for me he's hard to judge.

Please please please tell me you don't think Webber is in the Melo camp!?

Post #8 » by **trex_8063** » Tue Jan 2, 2018 4:14 am

penbeast0 wrote:I thought about Kawhi but he's only got 2 elite seasons and maybe 3 more as a solid rotation player. I figured Marc Gasol's career value was higher, do you disagree?

I do disagree.

For starters, you're short-changing Kawhi one season: he's got 2 truly elite seasons and FOUR as [at least] a solid rotation player. That's six quality seasons, to which Marc Gasol really doesn't have a huge longevity edge on (just nine quality seasons to his credit). Unless you're not counting Kawhi's rookie year as a relevant rotational player season? 16.6 PER, .171 WS/48, +4.3 BPM, +18 eff differential in 24.0 mpg, and already showing solid promise on the defensive end is pretty solid as a "rotation player", imo.

And wrt to those two elite seasons, I think Kawhi was SO much better than Marc ever was, that for me '16-'17 Kawhi carries more career value than '14-'17 Marc Gasol (especially considering Marc missed relevant time in two of those four seasons); possibly even as much value as '13-'17 M.Gasol, when factoring in all of what might be called "legacy points" (the title and FMVP, 2 DPOY, etc).

And for at least one Kawhi's other seasons, I think "solid rotation player" is, shall we say....."semantically incorrect" as a means of describing a player with 22.0 PER, .204 WS/48, +6.1 BPM, +17 efficiency differential in 31.8 mpg (16.5 ppg @ +3.3% rTS, 7.2 rpg, 2.5 apg, and only 1.5 topg while being DPOY-material on that end). That's arguably an All-NBA level player (and imo already comparable to, if not marginally better than, peak M.Gasol). The season prior to that was pretty close to a fringe All-Star, too. Those first four seasons stack up very well against Marc's first four years.

Post #9 » by **trex_8063** » Tue Jan 2, 2018 4:51 am

trex_8063 wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:I thought about Kawhi but he's only got 2 elite seasons and maybe 3 more as a solid rotation player. I figured Marc Gasol's career value was higher, do you disagree?

I do disagree.

For starters, you're short-changing Kawhi one season: he's got 2 truly elite seasons and FOUR as [at least] a solid rotation player. That's six quality seasons, to which Marc Gasol really doesn't have a huge longevity edge on (just nine quality seasons to his credit). Unless you're not counting Kawhi's rookie year as a relevant rotational player season? 16.6 PER, .171 WS/48, +4.3 BPM, +18 eff differential in 24.0 mpg, and already showing solid promise on the defensive end is pretty solid as a "rotation player", imo.

And wrt to those two elite seasons, I think Kawhi was SO much better than Marc ever was, that for me '16-'17 Kawhi carries more career value than '14-'17 Marc Gasol (especially considering Marc missed relevant time in two of those four seasons); possibly even as much value as '13-'17 M.Gasol, when factoring in all of what might be called "legacy points" (the title and FMVP, 2 DPOY, etc).

And for at least one Kawhi's other seasons, I think "solid rotation player" is, shall we say....."semantically incorrect" as a means of describing a player with 22.0 PER, .204 WS/48, +6.1 BPM, +17 efficiency differential in 31.8 mpg (16.5 ppg @ +3.3% rTS, 7.2 rpg, 2.5 apg, and only 1.5 topg while being DPOY-material on that end). That's arguably an All-NBA level player (and imo already comparable to, if not marginally better than, peak M.Gasol). The season prior to that was pretty close to a fringe All-Star, too. Those first four seasons stack up very well against Marc's first four years.

Just to augment the above statements, it certainly could be closer between the two than I've previously given it credit for. I think some of my guiding formulations have a pinch too much "winner's bias" in them that I sometimes fail to account for.

But that said, I just looked at some best x-years RAPM between the two (had to use RPM for '14, as I cannot find RAPM for that year, not since GotBuckets? went down)......and Kawhi's best 3-years RAPM added ('15-'17, fwiw) is already higher than M.Gasol's best 7-years RAPM added. So Kawhi's legit massive impact in recent years.
And fwiw, his PI RAPM in '15 was 5th in the league (behind only Lebron, Curry, CP3, and Draymond; ahead of guys like Harden, Durant, Westbrook, peak Anthony Davis).........which gives me a pinch more confidence in the suggestion I made above: that Kawhi may already in '15 have been better than Marc's peak.

Post #10 » by **penbeast0** » Tue Jan 2, 2018 5:38 am

Fair enough, Marc Gasol's value is something I hadn't calculated and he and Kawhi were what I thought of as the highest career value among active players not yet taken.

As for Webber, I have him above Carmelo but not by a lot and for much the same reasons. I think he played for himself, rather than for the team; I think his defense is overrated because of his tendency to let opponents get good position against him relying on his athleticism to save him; I think his efficiency is overrated by his failure to get to the line; and I think he was a poor teammate much of his career (GS, Washington, Philadelphia).

dhsilv2 · Post #11 » by **dhsilv2** » Tue Jan 2, 2018 9:22 am

trex_8063 wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:I thought about Kawhi but he's only got 2 elite seasons and maybe 3 more as a solid rotation player. I figured Marc Gasol's career value was higher, do you disagree?

I do disagree.

For starters, you're short-changing Kawhi one season: he's got 2 truly elite seasons and FOUR as [at least] a solid rotation player. That's six quality seasons, to which Marc Gasol really doesn't have a huge longevity edge on (just nine quality seasons to his credit). Unless you're not counting Kawhi's rookie year as a relevant rotational player season? 16.6 PER, .171 WS/48, +4.3 BPM, +18 eff differential in 24.0 mpg, and already showing solid promise on the defensive end is pretty solid as a "rotation player", imo.

And wrt to those two elite seasons, I think Kawhi was SO much better than Marc ever was, that for me '16-'17 Kawhi carries more career value than '14-'17 Marc Gasol (especially considering Marc missed relevant time in two of those four seasons); possibly even as much value as '13-'17 M.Gasol, when factoring in all of what might be called "legacy points" (the title and FMVP, 2 DPOY, etc).

And for at least one Kawhi's other seasons, I think "solid rotation player" is, shall we say....."semantically incorrect" as a means of describing a player with 22.0 PER, .204 WS/48, +6.1 BPM, +17 efficiency differential in 31.8 mpg (16.5 ppg @ +3.3% rTS, 7.2 rpg, 2.5 apg, and only 1.5 topg while being DPOY-material on that end). That's arguably an All-NBA level player (and imo already comparable to, if not marginally better than, peak M.Gasol). The season prior to that was pretty close to a fringe All-Star, too. Those first four seasons stack up very well against Marc's first four years.

Just to augment the above statements, it certainly could be closer between the two than I've previously given it credit for. I think some of my guiding formulations have a pinch too much "winner's bias" in them that I sometimes fail to account for.

But that said, I just looked at some best x-years RAPM between the two (had to use RPM for '14, as I cannot find RAPM for that year, not since GotBuckets? went down)......and Kawhi's best 3-years RAPM added ('15-'17, fwiw) is already higher than M.Gasol's best 7-years RAPM added. So Kawhi's legit massive impact in recent years.
And fwiw, his PI RAPM in '15 was 5th in the league (behind only Lebron, Curry, CP3, and Draymond; ahead of guys like Harden, Durant, Westbrook, peak Anthony Davis).........which gives me a pinch more confidence in the suggestion I made above: that Kawhi may already in '15 have been better than Marc's peak.

I really don't like this adding RAPM together stuff. With Gasol and Leonard, Gasol's 5 best minute played seasons are better than Leonard's top one. This comes off as rather telling given Gasol isn't exactly an iron man and has multiple seasons where he missed games. I can't just shrug it off as "pop's limiting his minutes" when he seems to consistently have minor injuries despite the lower minutes.

I like Leonard here as his last 2 seasons imo are better than Gasol's peak and I think materially so, but the minutes gap is huge, the accumulation stats still favor Gasol, and overall I think Marc is the better defender.

LA Bird · Post #12 » by **LA Bird** » Tue Jan 2, 2018 11:05 am

I've been a bit busy lately so sorry if I am just copying my votes from previous rounds.

1. Shawn Marion
The second most valuable player on the SSOL Suns and a very long career as a highly versatile defensive player even though he was never selected to an All-Defensive team. One of the highest remaining player in both career WS and VORP. Marion's offensive skillset is too limited to be relied on to create his own offense but he is one of the best if you are looking for a #2 or #3 option. Excellent movement off the ball, low turnovers and even some great shooting in his earlier years (although that got worse and worse over the years). There are a couple defense-first players coming up on my list but I think Marion is clearly ahead of the others on offense and is a credible two-way threat.

2. Ben Wallace
The other 4 time DPOY (Mutombo) was voted in almost 25 spots ago. Wallace's offense is bad but his defense is dominant enough for him to be voted in here.

Post #13 » by **trex_8063** » Tue Jan 2, 2018 7:15 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:I really don't like this adding RAPM together stuff. With Gasol and Leonard, Gasol's 5 best minute played seasons are better than Leonard's top one. This comes off as rather telling given Gasol isn't exactly an iron man and has multiple seasons where he missed games. I can't just shrug it off as "pop's limiting his minutes" when he seems to consistently have minor injuries despite the lower minutes.

I don't use these added RAPM's exactly as a "guiding formula" within my criteria. I just sometimes like to view them for a better idea of whose year-after-year impact is strong (mostly the long-stretches----like 10 years or similar----is the most "illuminating" within the context of all-time discussions). I realize it's a rate metric (so are most of the others we use), and I do mentally sort of keep the minutes in mind; the differences are usually not too substantial as long as comparing "star" type players. Some kind of minute-weighted version would be relevant, but I'm not sure the best way to do so.

You've suggested simply multiplying them by rs minutes played, but I'm not sure that is the best answer. RAPM includes consideration of the post-season, after all, so I don't think ps minutes should be ignored. But if multiplying by minutes played, should we include the total (rs + ps) minutes? That would have a "winner's bias" favoring those on teams that make deep playoff runs......one might say rewarding "career luck" (lucky for being on a great team).
otoh, it's partially the quality of their play that is making the team good/great and able to run deep in the playoffs. One could also suggest that on a lesser team, Player X would be playing larger minutes during the rs (and possibly with bigger/more impressive box-stats, fwiw); it's only because his team has such depth of talent that they're able to restrict his minutes.
A counter to that is that the restricted minutes are part of what makes his rate metrics so impressive (rarely tired, etc).
And then there's the consideration of how tough your conference/playoff match-ups are, as it pertains to depth of playoff runs.

So it's very fuzzy [imo] as to how the mpg and missed games should be considered.

One idea I was toying around with in my head is something like this:

[(rs min + ps min) * RAPM] + [replacement minutes * -1]

.....where "replacement minutes" would be defined as:

(48 * team games played) minus Player X's (rs min + ps min).

Basically it's taking into account every minute that our star Player X is either on the bench and/or missing games, and assuming his replacement is a -1.0 RAPM. Does take into account deeper playoff runs (which presumably our star is partly responsible for), but "winner's bias" is somewhat mitigated by larger "replacement discount".

We can maybe call this "Minute and Replacement Weighted RAPM Score" or some such. Just spit-ballin'......

dhsilv2 · Post #14 » by **dhsilv2** » Tue Jan 2, 2018 8:20 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:I really don't like this adding RAPM together stuff. With Gasol and Leonard, Gasol's 5 best minute played seasons are better than Leonard's top one. This comes off as rather telling given Gasol isn't exactly an iron man and has multiple seasons where he missed games. I can't just shrug it off as "pop's limiting his minutes" when he seems to consistently have minor injuries despite the lower minutes.

I don't use these added RAPM's exactly as a "guiding formula" within my criteria. I just sometimes like to view them for a better idea of whose year-after-year impact is strong (mostly the long-stretches----like 10 years or similar----is the most "illuminating" within the context of all-time discussions). I realize it's a rate metric (so are most of the others we use), and I do mentally sort of keep the minutes in mind; the differences are usually not too substantial as long as comparing "star" type players. Some kind of minute-weighted version would be relevant, but I'm not sure the best way to do so.

You've suggested simply multiplying them by rs minutes played, but I'm not sure that is the best answer. RAPM includes consideration of the post-season, after all, so I don't think ps minutes should be ignored. But if multiplying by minutes played, should we include the total (rs + ps) minutes? That would have a "winner's bias" favoring those on teams that make deep playoff runs......one might say rewarding "career luck" (lucky for being on a great team).
otoh, it's partially the quality of their play that is making the team good/great and able to run deep in the playoffs. One could also suggest that on a lesser team, Player X would be playing larger minutes during the rs (and possibly with bigger/more impressive box-stats, fwiw); it's only because his team has such depth of talent that they're able to restrict his minutes.
A counter to that is that the restricted minutes are part of what makes his rate metrics so impressive (rarely tired, etc).
And then there's the consideration of how tough your conference/playoff match-ups are, as it pertains to depth of playoff runs.

So it's very fuzzy [imo] as to how the mpg and missed games should be considered.

One idea I was toying around with in my head is something like this:

[(rs min + ps min) * RAPM] + [replacement minutes * -1]

.....where "replacement minutes" would be defined as:

(48 * team games played) minus Player X's (rs min + ps min).

Basically it's taking into account every minute that our star Player X is either on the bench and/or missing games, and assuming his replacement is a -1.0 RAPM. Does take into account deeper playoff runs (which presumably our star is partly responsible for), but "winner's bias" is somewhat mitigated by larger "replacement discount".

We can maybe call this "Minute and Replacement Weighted RAPM Score" or some such. Just spit-ballin'......

I'd first want confirmation that all RAPM's you're mixing together use post season data. Do we know that?

If playoff competition is stronger than regular season (we have to assume), I don't think the winner bias is that problematic. I'd think mean minutes from the group could be used as some kind of base. I'd actually wonder how RPM is creating WINS and wonder if we could populate something reasonably close.

That said I think that's a good method.

I'd also support a weighted average 5 year RAPM, not sure fully if the metric is best used, but sum of minutes * rapm summed for each year and divied by total minutes. Then we have a clean base number and we can just take % of minutes based on mean for the group? your method sounds better but that was my gut feeling.

cpower · Post #15 » by **cpower** » Tue Jan 2, 2018 8:27 pm

LA Bird wrote:I've been a bit busy lately so sorry if I am just copying my votes from previous rounds.

1. Shawn Marion
The second most valuable player on the SSOL Suns and a very long career as a highly versatile defensive player even though he was never selected to an All-Defensive team. One of the highest remaining player in both career WS and VORP. Marion's offensive skillset is too limited to be relied on to create his own offense but he is one of the best if you are looking for a #2 or #3 option. Excellent movement off the ball, low turnovers and even some great shooting in his earlier years (although that got worse and worse over the years). There are a couple defense-first players coming up on my list but I think Marion is clearly ahead of the others on offense and is a credible two-way threat.

2. Ben Wallace
The other 4 time DPOY (Mutombo) was voted in almost 25 spots ago. Wallace's offense is bad but his defense is dominant enough for him to be voted in here.

I feel big Ben is extremely underrated. How is Mutombo 25 spots higher than him? :banghead:

Owly · Post #16 » by **Owly** » Tue Jan 2, 2018 9:12 pm

cpower wrote:
LA Bird wrote:I've been a bit busy lately so sorry if I am just copying my votes from previous rounds.

1. Shawn Marion
The second most valuable player on the SSOL Suns and a very long career as a highly versatile defensive player even though he was never selected to an All-Defensive team. One of the highest remaining player in both career WS and VORP. Marion's offensive skillset is too limited to be relied on to create his own offense but he is one of the best if you are looking for a #2 or #3 option. Excellent movement off the ball, low turnovers and even some great shooting in his earlier years (although that got worse and worse over the years). There are a couple defense-first players coming up on my list but I think Marion is clearly ahead of the others on offense and is a credible two-way threat.

2. Ben Wallace
The other 4 time DPOY (Mutombo) was voted in almost 25 spots ago. Wallace's offense is bad but his defense is dominant enough for him to be voted in here.

I feel big Ben is extremely underrated. How is Mutombo 25 spots higher than him?

Obviously, read the relevant thread for voters' reasoning. But the most obvious difference would be that Mutombo was a useful offensive player. Limited, certainly, but generally quite efficient, and I wouldn't think an impediment to a good offense. Wallace on the other hand ...

In terms of their boxscore primes, Mutombo has a huge minutes advantage (Mutombo '93-01: 24989 minutes, 18.2 PER, .158 WS/48, 82.5 Win Shares; Wallace '02-'06: 14405 minutes, 17.6 PER, .170 WS/48, 51 WS), maybe you could extend a few years further back for Wallace, but then ditto '02 for Mutombo. In any case longevity and longevity of quality seems to pro-Mutombo.

So, off the top of my head, it's offense and longevity that separate them, though obviously the analysis done by most voters will [hopefully] be more fine-grained and holistic than what I've presented here.

Feel free to make a reasoned case for Wallace to persuade voters (or persuade those running the project to allow you to participate). It seems like we're getting around the point he'll get support (he went in at 78 last time, though obviously things like Curry, Westbrook leaping in shuffle everyone down - actually I might look at a comparison with the last list - put it in the meta-thread in case people don't want to be influenced by last time).

Post #17 » by **Clyde Frazier** » Tue Jan 2, 2018 10:07 pm

Vote 1 - Hal Greer

Vote 2 - Carmelo Anthony

Reasoning from past threads:

Spoiler:

Post #18 » by **trex_8063** » Wed Jan 3, 2018 2:30 am

dhsilv2 wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:I really don't like this adding RAPM together stuff. With Gasol and Leonard, Gasol's 5 best minute played seasons are better than Leonard's top one. This comes off as rather telling given Gasol isn't exactly an iron man and has multiple seasons where he missed games. I can't just shrug it off as "pop's limiting his minutes" when he seems to consistently have minor injuries despite the lower minutes.

I don't use these added RAPM's exactly as a "guiding formula" within my criteria. I just sometimes like to view them for a better idea of whose year-after-year impact is strong (mostly the long-stretches----like 10 years or similar----is the most "illuminating" within the context of all-time discussions). I realize it's a rate metric (so are most of the others we use), and I do mentally sort of keep the minutes in mind; the differences are usually not too substantial as long as comparing "star" type players. Some kind of minute-weighted version would be relevant, but I'm not sure the best way to do so.

You've suggested simply multiplying them by rs minutes played, but I'm not sure that is the best answer. RAPM includes consideration of the post-season, after all, so I don't think ps minutes should be ignored. But if multiplying by minutes played, should we include the total (rs + ps) minutes? That would have a "winner's bias" favoring those on teams that make deep playoff runs......one might say rewarding "career luck" (lucky for being on a great team).
otoh, it's partially the quality of their play that is making the team good/great and able to run deep in the playoffs. One could also suggest that on a lesser team, Player X would be playing larger minutes during the rs (and possibly with bigger/more impressive box-stats, fwiw); it's only because his team has such depth of talent that they're able to restrict his minutes.
A counter to that is that the restricted minutes are part of what makes his rate metrics so impressive (rarely tired, etc).
And then there's the consideration of how tough your conference/playoff match-ups are, as it pertains to depth of playoff runs.

So it's very fuzzy [imo] as to how the mpg and missed games should be considered.

One idea I was toying around with in my head is something like this:

[(rs min + ps min) * RAPM] + [replacement minutes * -1]

.....where "replacement minutes" would be defined as:

(48 * team games played) minus Player X's (rs min + ps min).

Basically it's taking into account every minute that our star Player X is either on the bench and/or missing games, and assuming his replacement is a -1.0 RAPM. Does take into account deeper playoff runs (which presumably our star is partly responsible for), but "winner's bias" is somewhat mitigated by larger "replacement discount".

We can maybe call this "Minute and Replacement Weighted RAPM Score" or some such. Just spit-ballin'......

I'd first want confirmation that all RAPM's you're mixing together use post season data. Do we know that?

If playoff competition is stronger than regular season (we have to assume), I don't think the winner bias is that problematic. I'd think mean minutes from the group could be used as some kind of base. I'd actually wonder how RPM is creating WINS and wonder if we could populate something reasonably close.

That said I think that's a good method.

J.E.'s RAPM does include the post-season. With these two individuals, I did use espn's RPM for '14; I don't know if that stat utilizes post-season data at all. It's the only option I had for '14, though, so figured it was better than nothing.

fwiw, I did my suggested "Minute and Replacement Weighted RAPM Score" for all years (for both Kawhi and Marc) in which they had a positive RAPM (RPM). Here's how these (10) player seasons rank, and with the score for each player season:

'16 Kawhi: 14,209.15
'17 Kawhi: 13,642.96
'13 M.Gasol: 12,369
'15 Kawhi: 10,019.58
'12 M.Gasol: 7,283.1
'14 M.Gasol: 6,142.71
'14 Kawhi: 5,649.18
'10 M.Gasol: 3,471
'15 M.Gasol: 2,952.17
'11 M.Gasol: 2,581.5

All their other seasons have negative RAPM's (slightly more so for Gasol).
Kawhi's four positive seasons add up to a total score of 43,520.87. Gasol's SIX positive seasons add up to 34,799.48. Note that even adding just Kawhi's top three seasons would add to a higher Minute/Replacement Weighted Score than all six of Gasol's.

fwiw, can do the simple multiply their RAPM's by their rs minutes played. By that simple method Kawhi's four seasons add up to 43,585.72; Gasol's six seasons add up to 37,638.03. And again Kawhi's three best years alone added up come out just marginally ahead of Marc's SIX seasons.

Post #19 » by **trex_8063** » Wed Jan 3, 2018 2:33 am

Thru post #18:

Shawn Marion - 2 (LABird, trex_8063)
Hal Greer - 1 (Clyde Frazier)
Larry Nance - 1 (pandrade83)
Mel Daniels - 1 (penbeast0)

This one will go to runoff somewhere near midday tomorrow (so ~16 hours left).

Spoiler:

scrabbarista · Post #20 » by **scrabbarista** » Wed Jan 3, 2018 7:45 am

77th - Dan Issel
78th - James Worthy

Issel was the second-best player on a championship team in the ABA and has incredibly consistent long-term production. It could be argued that his "prime" was 13 or 14 years long. In fact, he had a PER over 20.0 for twelve seasons, and in 15 seasons, his three lowest PERS were 17, 17, and 18.

In pts, rebs, asts, stls, and blocks, he is 34th all-time, but that includes a minus 20% penalty on his five seasons of ABA play. Really, he is about ten spots higher.

He was an All-Star from the age of 22-28 (seven times), but his legacy is tarnished by the fact that this only includes one NBA season.

In ten NBA seasons, his PER was 21.1. In five ABA seasons, it was 21.8

In the NBA, his WS/48 was .181. In the ABA, it was .182.

In those 15 seasons, Issel's lowest games played was 76, when he was 35 years old.

Basically, Issel is maybe the most consistent player in professional basketball history. Maybe that's why they called him "Horse."