pandrade83 wrote:dhsilv2 wrote:What gives Dumars a clear edge on an Eddie Jones other than rings? I know Dumars are more acclaimed, but the box score metrics are firmly in Jone's favor. Meanwhile Jones managed to get some rather traditionally poor teams into the playoffs. I'm not sure which to weigh more here. History firmly favors Dumars of course, but I don't really see why.
For the same reason I (with support from others) have had to overcome bias on nance against players who had rings but inferior metrics and very likely less impact - rings trump everything even if the player in question wasn’t the one primarily responsible for said rings.
It's not just the rings argument. I guess you could say accolades/awards comes into it, too, as it pertains to the statistical comparison: because it helps provide some perspective.
Eddie Jones was a very good defender, however, much of his value IS captured by the box, as much of his came by way of help D or generating turnovers (even led the league in steals one year, was I believe 2nd another year); that stuff shows up within his DWS (and thus WS/48), DRtg, BPM, and to a lesser degree PER.
Dumars, otoh, was an All-Defensive level guard whose value on that end is virtually invisible on the box (because he didn't get many steals, blocks, or defensive rebounds). But he was nonetheless 5 times All-Defensive Team (four times on 1st Team) [generally thought to be well-deserved], and usually tasked with guarding the primary perimeter offensive threat on the opposing team: the Jordans, Magics, Drexlers, Millers, etc; was generally credited [rightfully so to my eye] as being a smothering man defender.
Few H2H's to illustrate (I know there's a lot of noise in this pertaining to team defense (and pace), but Dumars played on his share of both good and terrible [post-Bad Boys] defenses to even things out):
Michael Jordan averaged 31.1 ppg @ 56.0% TS with 5.6 apg and 2.7 topg in H2H's against Dumars, vs 31.8 ppg @ 57.9% TS with 5.3 apg and 2.7 topg overall in the same years.
In the playoffs, Jordan averaged 30.0 ppg @ 57.4% TS with 6.1 apg and 3.3 topg against Dumars and the Pistons, vs playoff averages of 34.5 ppg @ 59.8% TS with 7.1 apg and 3.4 topg overall in the same years.
Reggie Miller averaged 16.4 ppg @ 58.8% TS with 3.0 apg and 1.8 topg against Dumars, vs 19.7 ppg @ 62.1% TS with 3.1 apg and 1.9 topg overall in same years.
Hersey Hawkins averaged 13.9 ppg @ 51.5% TS with 2.9 apg and 1.7 topg against Dumars, vs 16.0 ppg @ 58.6% TS with 3.1 apg and 2.0 topg overall in same years.
Mitch Richmond averaged 18.4 ppg @ 51.8% TS with 3.4 apg and 2.5 topg against Dumars, vs 22.9 ppg @ 56.1% TS with 3.8 apg and 2.9 topg overall in same years.
John Starks averaged 12.3 ppg @ 51.6% TS with 3.9 apg and 1.5 topg against Dumars, vs 13.6 ppg @ 52.2% TS with 3.9 apg and 1.9 topg overall in same years.
Craig Ehlo suffered near-negligible decline against Dumars as well, fwiw.
Sidney Moncrief and Magic Johnson were nearly washes against Dumars.....
Sid averaged 12.3 ppg @ 55.9% TS with 3.0 apg and 1.2 topg against Dumars, vs 12.0 ppg @ 59.1% TS with 3.2 apg and 1.6 topg overall in same years.
Magic averaged 22.2 ppg @ 57.3% TS with 12.5 apg and 4.3 topg against Dumars, vs 20.7 ppg @ 61.1% TS with 11.9 apg and 3.8 topg overall in same years (idk, arguably a negligible decline there; he did very well in the playoffs against the Pistons, though).
Clyde Drexler is the only one I found who had a negligible RISE in production/efficiency against Dumars.
Going back to the statistical comparison.......
Looking at the the relative production (going with per 100 possessions numbers) and efficiency of Dumars and Jones in their prime-ish years, Dumars averaged more pts (generally by around +2 or so pts/100) on barely lesser (like ~-0.5%) TS. Dumars accumulates more turnovers than Jones (like +0.4 or 0.5 more per 100 poss), but also significantly more assists (like +1.8); their career mTOV% are very similar, with the tiniest of edges going to Jones. Offensive rebounds is a slight edge to Jones, though relatively negligible for both (around 1.1/100 for Dumars, ~1.4/100 for Jones). So overall offensively, the most you can stretch that in Jones' favor is to say it's "nearly a wash, though more likely a marginal edge to Dumars (and he certainly
looked like the more versatile offensive player to me, capable of playing either guard position).
But Jones then soundly drubs him in all the defensive box metrics: MORE THAN doubles him in defensive rebounds and steals, and several times over him in blocks. All of that has it's imprint on the box-based rate metrics, as mentioned above; even though Dumars may likely have been having similar (some might even try to argue MORE???) impact on the defensive end.......but in ways that the box can't easily capture.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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