RealGM 2017 Top 100 #81 (Larry Nance)

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RealGM 2017 Top 100 #81 (Larry Nance) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:10 pm

1. Michael Jordan
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3. Lebron James
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kobe Bryant
12. Kevin Garnett
13. Oscar Robertson
14. Karl Malone
15. Jerry West
16. Julius Erving
17. Dirk Nowitzki
18. David Robinson
19. Charles Barkley
20. Moses Malone
21. John Stockton
22. Dwyane Wade
23. Chris Paul
24. Bob Pettit
25. George Mikan
26. Steve Nash
27. Patrick Ewing
28. Kevin Durant
29. Stephen Curry
30. Scottie Pippen
31. John Havlicek
32. Elgin Baylor
33. Clyde Drexler
34. Rick Barry
35. Gary Payton
36. Artis Gilmore
37. Jason Kidd
38. Walt Frazier
39. Isiah Thomas
40. Kevin McHale
41. George Gervin
42. Reggie Miller
43. Paul Pierce
44. Dwight Howard
45. Dolph Schayes
46. Bob Cousy
47. Ray Allen
48. Pau Gasol
49. Wes Unseld
50. Robert Parish
51. Russell Westbrook
52. Alonzo Mourning
53. Dikembe Mutombo
54. Manu Ginobili
55. Chauncey Billups
56. Willis Reed
57. Bob Lanier
58. Allen Iverson
59. Adrian Dantley
60. Dave Cowens
61. Elvin Hayes
62. Dominique Wilkins
63. Vince Carter
64. Alex English
65. Tracy McGrady
66. James Harden
67. Nate Thurmond
68. Sam Jones
69. Kevin Johnson
70. Bob McAdoo
71. Sidney Moncrief
72. Paul Arizin
73. Grant Hill
74. Bobby Jones
75. Chris Bosh
76. Tony Parker
77. Shawn Marion
78. Hal Greer
79. Ben Wallace
80. Dan Issel
81. ????

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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #81 

Post#2 » by trex_8063 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:27 pm

Although my top pick got voted in, the last thread felt a pinch unjust. pandrade83 (and to a lesser degree Owly) have been resolutely arguing in favor of Nance, and based on the previous thread (and the # of secondary votes) it's clear that----with the posters who've been at least semi-consistently participating----that Larry Nance had the most support of all available candidates.....but most of his contingent didn't show up for the preliminary vote last thread, and he thus didn't even make the runoff. Hopefully they show up for this one so he's isn't displaced more than just the one spot due to "timing miscues".
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #81 

Post#3 » by penbeast0 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:50 pm

Vote: Mel Daniels
Alternate: Larry Nance


I know the early ABA was a pretty weak league but when you are going up against guys like Carmelo Anthony or Dan Issel, both fine scorers but neither of whom moved the needle much for their teams most of their career, a guy who was a 2 time MVP winner and the best or second best player on 3 championship teams should be looking pretty strong, even with a relatively short career. As Doctor MJ said, winners win for a reason.

Mel Daniels is certainly the only multiple MVP winner left. Nobody else changed or dominanted on both ends to the same degree for more than 1-1.5 years (Walton, Hawkins). Daniels was the best player on two championship teams plus a willing support role on a third championship though in a weak league (probably better than the pre-Russell 50s though). I tend to value defense, particularly for big men, and Mel was basically the original Alonzo Mourning with more rebounding but less shotblocking. He was a 1st round NBA pick (the first to sign with the ABA) and in the NBA would probably have been one of the best centers as well, not in the Jabbar league but then neither was anyone else, but contending with Unseld/Cowens for the rebounding leaderboard and 2nd team All-Defense and with 15-20ppg scoring on limited range (He did a lot of outside shooting his first year . . . badly; coaching of the day didn't like centers out of the post though). Like Zo, his playmaking was mediocre but in addition to strong rebounding and defense, he was Indiana's intimidator, in a league where everyone was trying to make a name for themselves. And, he did it without major foul trouble issues. The two MVPs show he was valued above his box scores.

It is reasonable to compare Daniels to Kawhi Leonard as they have similar length of career by now. Kawhi brings excellent wing defense early on, but Daniels was probably more impactful defensively as intimidating defensive centers tend to be (especially in the 20th century). Kawhi's defense is still good and his scoring has blown up, a clearly better option than Daniels; also clearly a better passer. Daniels brings rebounding and toughness at a level equal to guys like Wes Unseld or Dave Cowens who are already in from his era (other league). I think the impact Daniels brought was appreciably higher in his league than that Kawhi has in the current league, enough to overcome the much weaker league he played in. Connie Hawkins would be another early ABA guy, higher peak than Daniels, shorter career though he did have a 1st team All-NBA between his first and second major knee injury. More of a career than Walton, less than Daniels. With careers this short, the difference is magnified. Of the bunch, I rate Daniels the highest.

James Worthy is the next guy I have been looking at. Was never a fan of his but he was the Lakers version of Kevin McHale (highly efficient second scorer with good defense and weak rebounding who had a history of stepping up in clutch time). But I think Owly has convinced me that Larry Nance looks stronger, very similar to Marion. If Worthy doesn't have a big advantage in playoff numbers, the Nance's shotblocking (probably the greatest ever outside of the true centers) gives him a strong case.

Bill Sharman is probably the best 50s guy left, Greer or Bellamy from the 60s (Bells wasn't a great team player but it was a center's league). Paul Silas or David Thompson from the 70s? Worthy from the 80s (ahead of Bernard King or Mark Aquirre who were the Carmelos of their day). Rodman from the 90s for pure defensive impact. Mark Gasol or Kawhi Leonard for active players[/quote]
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #81 

Post#4 » by trex_8063 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:02 pm

1st vote: Larry Nance
Just going to briefly parrot what's been said in prior threads for Nance. He's simply a very nice two-way player (excellent finisher, nice instincts cutting to the hoop off-ball, very nice mid-range shot [at least by later in his career], good passing big, OK rebounder, excellent help defender). And he was so consistent through his career that the "mere" 13 seasons sort of belies his very good longevity: you can justly declare that 11 of those 13 seasons were prime seasons. He's on average a 20.2 PER, .175 WS/48, +4.5 BPM in ~36 mpg kind of player in those 11 seasons.
And as far as intangibles, his coaches and teammates really have nothing but effusive praise for the man.

The rest has been fairly well covered by pandrade83 and Owly (among others).


2nd vote: James Worthy
OK, I'm switching my alternate vote. The posts (which ironically come AFTER this post) by penbeast0 and Owly have irritated the primary concern I noted about Rodman (which I'll keep in the quotes below, so as not to delete content), enough so that I'm no longer comfortable with him as my secondary pick here. So I'm moving him down at least one or two spots on my ATL, and gonna tentatively go with Worthy as my alt (though Kawhi, Webber, Melo, Brand, and Rasheed were all considered and feel like reasonable/sound choices at this stage too).

Some may argue Worthy hit the lottery in landing on the Lakers at that time; and some also suggest his scoring capability is inflated by playing with Magic. But consider a couple things:
*I recall an analysis that indicated his scoring and efficiency in games Magic missed during his prime basically didn't skip a beat. There were always scorers on those Laker teams: Kareem could score and wanted his touches, Magic could score, and there was usually at least one other pretty good scorer (Byron Scott or maybe Norm Nixon); so Worthy always had to share the ball, which perhaps limited his volume compared to what he may have received elsewhere. Looking at Worthy's offensive game (one of the great transition running/finishing forwards, could also demolish his man in single-coverage from the elbow, decent post game, and not a bad mid-range shooter), it's not hard to imagine prime Worthy dropping 22-24 ppg on respectable (~55% or so) TS in a "lesser" scenario. Worthy was a legit scorer.
**Worthy [to my knowledge] never griped about having to share the spotlight, share the touches, and generally be perceived as a the 2nd or even 3rd banana on the team. In interviews I've heard, he seems an intelligent and well-spoken man, and I've never read a word of dissent attributed to teammates or coaches. This is counter to some of the issues we've been discussing wrt other players. Worthy seems a true team player.

Few other nuts and bolts (both good and bad):
*My primary criticisms of him are that he was a mediocre (to slightly weak) rebounding SF/combo forward, and his longevity is only so-so. Not bad on the latter: 12 seasons, 11 of which he was at least a useful role player, and very durable, too (>30,000 rs minutes logged in those 12 years), and a 7-8 year prime......just not exceptional either.
**Solid/decent defender, probably versatile enough to guard either the 4 or 3 position.
***Excellent turnover economy.


Prior tentative secondary vote:
2nd vote: Dennis Rodman
Have tentatively decided on Dennis for my secondary vote. Always an energy guy, which I admit I have a soft spot for. He came into the league as a "useful" bench player, was arguably in his prime (very near to it, anyway) by his 2nd season. Played nearly 14 seasons, and basically 11 of them are at least very near prime-level: from '88 to '98 he was on average a 14.8 PER, .154 WS/48, and +3.3 BPM player in 33.3 mpg........which we know isn't fully capturing his full defensive value some years.
He was an energetic, versatile defender and EXCELLENT rebounding combo forward right off the bat in his career, eventually becoming a DPOY (twice), before then allowing his defense to regress somewhat (still a solid post defender in Chicago) as he carved out a new niche as basically the GOAT rebounder. During the latter half of his career, I actually suspect he was more valuable on the offensive end than the defensive, as result of the fairly ridiculous ~6 OREB/game he was averaging. RAPM for '97 and '98 reflects this.

I've criticized Rodman previously for his volatile temperament and his propensity for team-cancer meltdowns (see '95 WCF), and I think it's true you need some strong (and vocal) team leaders to keep him in line. It's for this reason that I haven't supported him earlier (and in truth, I could be convinced that this is important enough a consideration that I should delay my support for him a few spots further, in favor of someone like Kawhi or Big Game James).

However, a few "intangible" things I'll credit him with to counter the negative repercussions of his erratic behavior......the positive repercussions of his erratic behavior:
1) No one could get under the skin of opposing players like Dennis Rodman. They don't call him "The Worm" for nothing. Rodman had a knack for getting in opponents' heads, sometimes taking people out of their game (see Brickowski in the '96 Finals). That's a semi-tangible value his team can continue to reap the rewards for even after Rodman takes a seat on the bench.
2) No one played the crowd like Dennis Rodman. Home-team fans LOVED him; opposing fans hated him. But he could really get the crowd going, and sometimes that fuels a team. Get the home-crowd going, the home-team can sometimes ride that momentum. And on the road, well.....Rodman didn't have a problem playing the villain (which perhaps deflects the wrath away from his teammates or the actual course of the game, and instead fixates them directly on him???).
3) The hustle plays. We you see a guy lay it all out diving in futility for a loose ball or some such, I kinda feel like [as a teammate] it makes it that much harder for you to slack off at all.......because you're just going to look bad by comparison if you do.

Anyway, Rodman's got all the other resume-filler that has been stated by another poster below, so I won't get into that. Not 100% set on him here, but tentatively will side with him.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #81 

Post#5 » by pandrade83 » Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:54 pm

pandrade83 wrote:Primary Vote: Larry Nance
Alternate: Tim Hardaway


I think Nance gets lost in the shuffle a bit historically.

Nance has a legit to clear claim for being the best player on 4 successful teams post merger - 2 Conference Finals teams ('84 Suns, '92 Cavs) the #1 team in SRS ('89 Cavs) & the #4 SRS team in '83 (Suns). Very few players left have that sort of capability. While it's true that the surrounding talent on those teams was all quite high - it takes a top level player to be of that caliber over teams spread that far apart. He leads all the aforementioned teams in WS & VORP & he has outstanding box score ORTG/DRTG differentials that lead those squads (+13, +12, +18, +20 respectively).

A typical year is 19-8-3-1 steal, 2.5 blocks on really strong shooting metrics with good turnover economy especially for a big and strong defense (3 X All-Defense) and he delivers 11 such years.

Amongst post merger remaining players, he is 6th in career WS & 2nd in VORP and 3rd in PER with career minutes exceeding 30 K.

In years where he suffers injuries in prime, the impact on team performance is clear.

'85 - 29-32 with, 7-14 without (+12)
'86 - 29-44 with, 3-6 without (+6)
'87 - 32-37 with, 4-9 without (+13)
'89 - 51-22 with, 6-3 without (+2)
'90 - 35-27 with, 7-13 without (+17)

Qualitatively there's a lot to love. I'll wrap up on a video against a playoff elimination game against one of the GOAT Teams - '92 Chicago when Nance is at age 32.



Note that he takes the opening tip at age 32 over taller Brad Daugherty.

Nance shows good range, intelligent movement without the ball, quality passer, strong help defender, solid post moves.

I'd rather have 11 years of that than anything anyone else has to offer at this stage.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'll post more once it's truly his turn but some of the talking points for Hardaway:

Awards/Accolades
5 X All-NBA - running out of guys who achieved that post merger
3 Top 10 MVP finishes - running out of guys who achieved that post merger

Metrics
-Everyone else who is a multi-year member of the 20-9-54% TS Club is in
-Strong TO economy for how much he had the ball with most prime seasons < 14% TO rate
-3 years of +20 PER & 10+WS* ('91 was 9.9) & BPM of 4 or higher
-Registers 2nd in NPI RAPM in '97, 11th in '01, unweighted chained 5 year NPI RAPM from '97-'01 places him inside the Top 20 in a typical year - this is when he's in the back half of his prime.

Impact on winning
-Led a repeat Division winner that won 61 games & made the ECF in WS
-Averaged 25-11-3 steals in the '91 playoffs that included an upset of the Spurs
-Averaged 26-7 in '98 Playoffs
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #81 

Post#6 » by Outside » Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:22 pm

Vote: Larry Nance

Alternate: James Worthy


Nance was a really good and consistent two-way player. He doesn't have great longevity -- 920 games, 30,697 minutes -- but most of it was prime. He was really productive for most of his career. Very good efficiency -- 58.6 TS% for his career, and consistently very good through most of his career. Scored well despite a usage rate that hovered around 20%. A finisher, not a playmaker, but finished very, very well. When things fell apart in Phoenix, I was glad to see his career revived in Cleveland. Some of those Cavs teams were really good.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #81 

Post#7 » by scrabbarista » Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:08 am

81st - Dennis Rodman
82nd - James Worthy


Rodman won five championships and was a difference maker in all of them.
All-Defense 8 times.
MVP votes in four seasons, finishing 10th, 11th, 12th, and 15th.
Back to back Defensive Player of the Year in '90 and '91.
Unequivocably the greatest rebounder I've ever seen. Maybe there is an argument for Russell (I don't know), but I've never seen anyone do it like Rodman.
Lead the league in rebounding for 7 straight seasons.
As an afterthought, he was All-NBA 3rd Team twice. (You can bet that if there were a 4th Team, he'd have many more appearances.)

He is absolutely not a mirage on the defensive end, absolutely not a product of different qualities being valued in a different era. He was Top 10 in Defensive Rating 9 times. Draymond Green has done it only 3 times and isn't doing it this year. Green may have peaked a little higher (last year) than Rodman defensively, but not by much if he did.

For those who didn't seem him play, Rodman was an incredibly high IQ player (it really might be incredible to you, depending how much you know about him off the court), on both ends of the court. The impeccable defensive resume - arguably among the 10 greatest ever - speaks for itself, but on offense, Rodman never got in the way. He was nearly on par with peak Joakim Noah - if you remember how well he facilitated the offense out of the high post and from the top of the key - in terms of offensive impact. Both players have two Top 10 finishes in Offensive Rating, but Rodman, of course, was an offensive contributor for many more years. He never stopped the ball, he made smart passes, he knew his role, and he had a knack for big plays. Rodman was a terror on the offensive glass - so much so, in fact, that he may have created space for his teammates rather than taken it away, because opposition bigs were so concerned with keeping him off the glass that they became hesitant (or were just too distracted) about helping on penetration. He was helped in this last part by the illegal defense rules, but there's no doubt that he would've been a smart passer, smart shooter, solid screen setter, and ungodly offensive rebounder in any era.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #81 

Post#8 » by trex_8063 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:19 am

scrabbarista wrote:81st - Dennis Rodman
82nd - James Worthy



Out of curiosity, what made you decide to flip-flop these two or otherwise bring Rodman ahead? (I noted Worthy was your alternate pick after Issel in the last thread)
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #81 

Post#9 » by dhsilv2 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:25 am

I'd be interested in people's views on leadership and being a good teammate for those talking about Rodman here.

Rasheed and Rodman are two guys who imo could already be in without their personality issues, complete lack of leadership, and toxic moments.

Also how much do the titles bias one towards Rodman vs a Rasheed? Sheed imo is the most talented guy not in who's career didn't end super early/fast or is just early in their career that isn't in yet.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #81 

Post#10 » by trex_8063 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:46 am

dhsilv2 wrote:I'd be interested in people's views on leadership and being a good teammate for those talking about Rodman here.

Rasheed and Rodman are two guys who imo could already be in without their personality issues, complete lack of leadership, and toxic moments.

Also how much do the titles bias one towards Rodman vs a Rasheed? Sheed imo is the most talented guy not in who's career didn't end super early/fast or is just early in their career that isn't in yet.


I've just edited some stuff into my vote post above (post #4, I think). I noted I've criticized Rodman in the past for his mentality, but I've offered up some positive aspects to it as well (see above).
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #81 

Post#11 » by penbeast0 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:37 am

The problems with Rodman:

1. Gives you almost no scoring (I can live with that) but:
2. Team killer in San Antonio
3. Chased rebounds instead of playing solid defense, particularly in San Antonio but occasionally in Detroit and Chicago as well (MJ went after him for this as well as pretty much the whole team and staff with the Spurs)
4. Playoff rebounding numbers take a drop (did he quit leaving his man to chase rebounds? could defenses game him?

Never bought the whole "great passer" thing. He moved the ball quickly, but didn't show great court vision that I saw or create many opportunities for teammates. So, good passer, not great.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #81 

Post#12 » by scrabbarista » Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:12 am

trex_8063 wrote:
scrabbarista wrote:81st - Dennis Rodman
82nd - James Worthy



Out of curiosity, what made you decide to flip-flop these two or otherwise bring Rodman ahead? (I noted Worthy was your alternate pick after Issel in the last thread)


Man... another silly one. My formula had given Worthy credit for being NCAA champ and tournament MOP. Minus those two accomplishments, he dropped one spot.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #81 

Post#13 » by scrabbarista » Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:15 am

penbeast0 wrote:The problems with Rodman:

1. Gives you almost no scoring (I can live with that) but:
2. Team killer in San Antonio
3. Chased rebounds instead of playing solid defense, particularly in San Antonio but occasionally in Detroit and Chicago as well (MJ went after him for this as well as pretty much the whole team and staff with the Spurs)
4. Playoff rebounding numbers take a drop (did he quit leaving his man to chase rebounds? could defenses game him?

Never bought the whole "great passer" thing. He moved the ball quickly, but didn't show great court vision that I saw or create many opportunities for teammates. So, good passer, not great.


Just to be clear, I don't consider Rodman a great passer. Just a smart one, a good one. And a player who, when you could pair him with guys like Isiah, Dumars, MJ, and Pippen (i.e., high-usage wings) was a plus on offense rather than a minus.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #81 

Post#14 » by scrabbarista » Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:19 am

penbeast0 wrote:The problems with Rodman:

1. Gives you almost no scoring (I can live with that) but:
2. Team killer in San Antonio
3. Chased rebounds instead of playing solid defense, particularly in San Antonio but occasionally in Detroit and Chicago as well (MJ went after him for this as well as pretty much the whole team and staff with the Spurs)
4. Playoff rebounding numbers take a drop (did he quit leaving his man to chase rebounds? could defenses game him?

Never bought the whole "great passer" thing. He moved the ball quickly, but didn't show great court vision that I saw or create many opportunities for teammates. So, good passer, not great.


In regards to San Antonio, if his whole career had gone as did his time with the Spurs, he'd drop 20-40 spots on my list (I have him 74th.) So, I pretty much agree with you there.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #81 

Post#15 » by scrabbarista » Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:28 am

penbeast0 wrote:The problems with Rodman:

1. Gives you almost no scoring (I can live with that) but:
2. Team killer in San Antonio
3. Chased rebounds instead of playing solid defense, particularly in San Antonio but occasionally in Detroit and Chicago as well (MJ went after him for this as well as pretty much the whole team and staff with the Spurs)
4. Playoff rebounding numbers take a drop (did he quit leaving his man to chase rebounds? could defenses game him?

Never bought the whole "great passer" thing. He moved the ball quickly, but didn't show great court vision that I saw or create many opportunities for teammates. So, good passer, not great.


Not including the ABA:

career RS Offensive Rebounding % = 1st
career RS Defensive Rebounding % = 1st

career PS Rebounding % = 3rd (behind Dwight Howard and Wilt Chamberlain)

Take a drop? C'mon man...
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #81 

Post#16 » by dhsilv2 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:19 am

penbeast0 wrote:The problems with Rodman:

1. Gives you almost no scoring (I can live with that) but:
2. Team killer in San Antonio
3. Chased rebounds instead of playing solid defense, particularly in San Antonio but occasionally in Detroit and Chicago as well (MJ went after him for this as well as pretty much the whole team and staff with the Spurs)
4. Playoff rebounding numbers take a drop (did he quit leaving his man to chase rebounds? could defenses game him?

Never bought the whole "great passer" thing. He moved the ball quickly, but didn't show great court vision that I saw or create many opportunities for teammates. So, good passer, not great.


Just to add here. After detroit he just stopped looking to take even almost gimmies in big moments. I don't mind a guy who can't score knowing his limitations, but I felt watching him that it was more than that. This always made me as a bulls fan in the 90's rather concerned. The other thing is just that it feels like nobody who played with him ever talked to the guy outside of a practice. I feel he just hit the basketball lottery with the pistons and bulls, otherwise does the guy even stay in the league being just a weirdo who on the wrong team could have been a lot more than just a cancer?

Now don't get me wrong he hustled, played defense, and drove the other team nuts so there was value.

That said was he really more impactful than Sheed who's not getting attention? For those considering him over Webber who is being called a chocker and ball hog and whatever is he really a worse personality than Rodman? And would the bulls or pistons be worse teams with Webber or Wallace in place of Rodman?
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #81 

Post#17 » by penbeast0 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:29 pm

scrabbarista wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:The problems with Rodman:

1. Gives you almost no scoring (I can live with that) but:
2. Team killer in San Antonio
3. Chased rebounds instead of playing solid defense, particularly in San Antonio but occasionally in Detroit and Chicago as well (MJ went after him for this as well as pretty much the whole team and staff with the Spurs)
4. Playoff rebounding numbers take a drop (did he quit leaving his man to chase rebounds? could defenses game him?

Never bought the whole "great passer" thing. He moved the ball quickly, but didn't show great court vision that I saw or create many opportunities for teammates. So, good passer, not great.


Not including the ABA:

career RS Offensive Rebounding % = 1st
career RS Defensive Rebounding % = 1st

career PS Rebounding % = 3rd (behind Dwight Howard and Wilt Chamberlain)

Take a drop? C'mon man...


The main think that gets the Worm into the top 100 is his amazing rebounding. It drops from GOAT to "merely" top 5 level in the playoffs, a significant drop statistically. I am wondering why. If it is because he was smart enough not to cheat off his defensive assignment to chase stats, that's actually a positive (I've heard it argued that Wilt's playoff scoring drop is a positive for the same reason!). If it's because he was signficantly less effective in the playoffs than the regular season, that's a big deal the other way. So, I'm asking if anyone has actually tried to look at this question because we have some amazing analysts here on the board.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #81 

Post#18 » by trex_8063 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:53 pm

penbeast0 wrote:
scrabbarista wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:The problems with Rodman:

1. Gives you almost no scoring (I can live with that) but:
2. Team killer in San Antonio
3. Chased rebounds instead of playing solid defense, particularly in San Antonio but occasionally in Detroit and Chicago as well (MJ went after him for this as well as pretty much the whole team and staff with the Spurs)
4. Playoff rebounding numbers take a drop (did he quit leaving his man to chase rebounds? could defenses game him?

Never bought the whole "great passer" thing. He moved the ball quickly, but didn't show great court vision that I saw or create many opportunities for teammates. So, good passer, not great.


Not including the ABA:

career RS Offensive Rebounding % = 1st
career RS Defensive Rebounding % = 1st

career PS Rebounding % = 3rd (behind Dwight Howard and Wilt Chamberlain)

Take a drop? C'mon man...


The main think that gets the Worm into the top 100 is his amazing rebounding. It drops from GOAT to "merely" top 5 level in the playoffs, a significant drop statistically. I am wondering why. If it is because he was smart enough not to cheat off his defensive assignment to chase stats, that's actually a positive (I've heard it argued that Wilt's playoff scoring drop is a positive for the same reason!). If it's because he was signficantly less effective in the playoffs than the regular season, that's a big deal the other way. So, I'm asking if anyone has actually tried to look at this question because we have some amazing analysts here on the board.


It's a good question. That would obviously take some significant scouting. At some point, I'll try to get around to doing so. In the meantime, the extent to which his mentality (potential to be "team cancer") is the biggest concern for me, and the one consideration that could eventually motivate me to shift him back a place or two on my ATL.
It's somewhat speculative as to whether we can justly declare he simply "won the lottery" in ending up in the circumstances he was in or not. Probably a little truth to that, though (as I alluded to in prior posts). idk, he's a tough nut to crack; he's one of those few modern-era players whose as difficult to "accurately" rank as many old-era stars.

vs my other top candidates (after Nance, who I'm now pretty set on as the best available candidate), they all have resume weak-spots, too......
Kawhi--->longevity (and durability) is weak.
Worthy---->did he also hit the player lottery for circumstance? Statistical resume not as impressive as some others.
Webber---->poorish longevity/durability, inconsistent impact, playoff struggles.
Melo---->mostly awful defender, questionable impact in some years, lack of playmaking.
Sheed--->Had his own "head-case" issues (did he luck out in Detroit?). One of the weaker statistical [box] resumes that could reasonably have traction here.

So everyone is very very far from perfect. Hard for me to say if Rodman belong behind any/all of these guys.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #81 

Post#19 » by dhsilv2 » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:00 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:
scrabbarista wrote:
Not including the ABA:

career RS Offensive Rebounding % = 1st
career RS Defensive Rebounding % = 1st

career PS Rebounding % = 3rd (behind Dwight Howard and Wilt Chamberlain)

Take a drop? C'mon man...


The main think that gets the Worm into the top 100 is his amazing rebounding. It drops from GOAT to "merely" top 5 level in the playoffs, a significant drop statistically. I am wondering why. If it is because he was smart enough not to cheat off his defensive assignment to chase stats, that's actually a positive (I've heard it argued that Wilt's playoff scoring drop is a positive for the same reason!). If it's because he was signficantly less effective in the playoffs than the regular season, that's a big deal the other way. So, I'm asking if anyone has actually tried to look at this question because we have some amazing analysts here on the board.


It's a good question. That would obviously take some significant scouting. At some point, I'll try to get around to doing so. In the meantime, the extent to which his mentality (potential to be "team cancer") is the biggest concern for me, and the one consideration that could eventually motivate me to shift him back a place or two on my ATL.
It's somewhat speculative as to whether we declare he simply "win the lottery" in ending up in the circumstances he was in or not. Probably a little truth to that. idk, he's a tough nut to crack; he's one of those few modern-era players whose as difficult to "accurately" rank as many old-era stars.

vs my other top candidates (after Nance, who I'm now pretty set on as the best available candidate), they all have resume weak-spots, too......
Kawhi--->longevity (and durability) is weak.
Worthy---->did he also hit the player lottery for circumstance? Statistical resume not as impressive as some others.
Webber---->poorish longevity/durability, inconsistent impact, playoff struggles.
Melo---->mostly awful defender, questionable impact in some years, lack of playmaking.
Sheed--->Had his own "head-case" issues (did he luck out in Detroit?). One of the weaker statistical [box] resumes that could reasonably have traction here.

So everyone is very very far from perfect. Hard for me to say if Rodman belong behind any/all of these guys.


I'd at least point out that there might have never been a worse team in NBA history than the blazers for a head case player and I don't think any one player can get the blame there. This of course add more complexity here, doesn't clarify your question or really make me feel better about sheed.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #81 

Post#20 » by Owly » Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:01 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:The problems with Rodman:

1. Gives you almost no scoring (I can live with that) but:
2. Team killer in San Antonio
3. Chased rebounds instead of playing solid defense, particularly in San Antonio but occasionally in Detroit and Chicago as well (MJ went after him for this as well as pretty much the whole team and staff with the Spurs)
4. Playoff rebounding numbers take a drop (did he quit leaving his man to chase rebounds? could defenses game him?

Never bought the whole "great passer" thing. He moved the ball quickly, but didn't show great court vision that I saw or create many opportunities for teammates. So, good passer, not great.


Just to add here. After detroit he just stopped looking to take even almost gimmies in big moments. I don't mind a guy who can't score knowing his limitations, but I felt watching him that it was more than that. This always made me as a bulls fan in the 90's rather concerned. The other thing is just that it feels like nobody who played with him ever talked to the guy outside of a practice. I feel he just hit the basketball lottery with the pistons and bulls, otherwise does the guy even stay in the league being just a weirdo who on the wrong team could have been a lot more than just a cancer?

Now don't get me wrong he hustled, played defense, and drove the other team nuts so there was value.

That said was he really more impactful than Sheed who's not getting attention? For those considering him over Webber who is being called a chocker and ball hog and whatever is he really a worse personality than Rodman? And would the bulls or pistons be worse teams with Webber or Wallace in place of Rodman?

The other side to the same coin is, the GM he most chafed under (and I'm pretty sure he explicitly said it was the GM more than the coach) is now a very strong contender for the greatest coach of all-time (Pop). So I think you can "win the lottery" and still, if Dennis is so inclined, he'll be an issue. And sure it was younger Pop, and the Spurs kinda changed the rules on him (Lucas and, iirc, Bass were very laissez-faire; Hill and Pop actually enforced team rules to the same standard with everyone - at least as I've read it). And Rodman was good on court (albeit as noted, less attentive a defender) ironically more so in '95 than '94. Still, I don't think you can ever be sure he'll be "contained", I'm not sure that that's up to you.

I'm not sure about the Sheed, Webber, Pistons, Bulls questions though. My inclinations would would be Detroit mostly didn't have an extra-strength crazy version of Rodman, and I'd be reluctant to switch him out. The Bulls did, and perhaps a fair chunk of Rodman's value was simply not being Dickey Simpkins or Jason Caffey, so I'd be more willing to do so. But it also depends on the version of the players in question. Webber could be a nice fit in the triangle, but needs to be buying in on D (and accept that he won't get the shots or touches he has elsewhere). Sheed, maybe I know less about, the tech's are pretty absurd, was he bad as a teammate?

scrabbarista wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:The problems with Rodman:

1. Gives you almost no scoring (I can live with that) but:
2. Team killer in San Antonio
3. Chased rebounds instead of playing solid defense, particularly in San Antonio but occasionally in Detroit and Chicago as well (MJ went after him for this as well as pretty much the whole team and staff with the Spurs)
4. Playoff rebounding numbers take a drop (did he quit leaving his man to chase rebounds? could defenses game him?

Never bought the whole "great passer" thing. He moved the ball quickly, but didn't show great court vision that I saw or create many opportunities for teammates. So, good passer, not great.


In regards to San Antonio, if his whole career had gone as did his time with the Spurs, he'd drop 20-40 spots on my list (I have him 74th.) So, I pretty much agree with you there.

If his whole career had been as him on the Spurs was ... I'm not sure I'd have him on my team (depends on circumstances, tradability etc I guess). And I've gone in against positive intangiables being projected{?, perhaps too perjorative] onto title winners. But where it's negative and clearly known at the time ... I don't know. Deserving to win titles and building a dynasty is about having the best team and low variance. Rodman not feeling like closing out, making a show of not being part of the team ... you only need to lose one series, four games (less historically) and he could make that a lot more likely. He's also hard to replace if he gets himself suspended or whatever, because by this point he's a unique player who you have to build around (my PF won't shoot, limited range if he does, he'll get a crazy percentage of rebounds). That guy's probably too much of a risk to a would-be dynasty, not worth it on non-contender, perhaps only worthwhite on "puncher's chance" team, a fringe contender (or a contender with sub-replacement level options for the bulk of the minutes at the position, who wouldn't be able to add anyone else).

And if he's that guy out of college ... I'm not sure he gets minutes ... certainly if he lands on the wrong team. I don't know how you're interpreting a career of Spurs Rodman nor am I denying his abilities and possible positive impact, he's just ... risky.

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