RealGM 2017 Top 100 #89 (Maurice Cheeks)

[trex_8063]

1. Michael Jordan
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3. Lebron James
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kobe Bryant
12. Kevin Garnett
13. Oscar Robertson
14. Karl Malone
15. Jerry West
16. Julius Erving
17. Dirk Nowitzki
18. David Robinson
19. Charles Barkley
20. Moses Malone
21. John Stockton
22. Dwyane Wade
23. Chris Paul
24. Bob Pettit
25. George Mikan
26. Steve Nash
27. Patrick Ewing
28. Kevin Durant
29. Stephen Curry
30. Scottie Pippen
31. John Havlicek
32. Elgin Baylor
33. Clyde Drexler
34. Rick Barry
35. Gary Payton
36. Artis Gilmore
37. Jason Kidd
38. Walt Frazier
39. Isiah Thomas
40. Kevin McHale
41. George Gervin
42. Reggie Miller
43. Paul Pierce
44. Dwight Howard
45. Dolph Schayes
46. Bob Cousy
47. Ray Allen
48. Pau Gasol
49. Wes Unseld
50. Robert Parish
51. Russell Westbrook
52. Alonzo Mourning
53. Dikembe Mutombo
54. Manu Ginobili
55. Chauncey Billups
56. Willis Reed
57. Bob Lanier
58. Allen Iverson
59. Adrian Dantley
60. Dave Cowens
61. Elvin Hayes
62. Dominique Wilkins
63. Vince Carter
64. Alex English
65. Tracy McGrady
66. James Harden
67. Nate Thurmond
68. Sam Jones
69. Kevin Johnson
70. Bob McAdoo
71. Sidney Moncrief
72. Paul Arizin
73. Grant Hill
74. Bobby Jones
75. Chris Bosh
76. Tony Parker
77. Shawn Marion
78. Hal Greer
79. Ben Wallace
80. Dan Issel
81. Larry Nance
82. James Worthy
83. Chris Webber
84. Rasheed Wallace
85. Dennis Rodman
86. Horace Grant
87. Elton Brand
88. Terry Porter
89. ???

Let's see who will be the next to beat Carmelo Anthony in a runoff.....

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[penbeast0]

Vote: Mel Daniels
Alternate: Jerry Lucas

Why Mel Daniels? It may be winner's bias, but when I see a team win multiple championships, I tend to look more closely at the makeup of the teams to see WHY they are winning. I don't automatically value big minute contributors to championships, I have been down on Bob Cousy's role on those Celtic titles for example. However, I do value the championships a lot and how a team got there. Indiana was the Boston Celtics of the ABA. They didn't have nearly the big name stars of Kentucky (Gilmore, Issel, Dampier), New York (Erving, Kenon), or even San Antonio (Gervin, Silas, Paultz) but they won the most and the most consistently. Breaking those teams down, Slick Leonard was a competent coach but had little success elsewhere and wasn't that highly regarded for either his game management or his player development. Their guards were pretty weak. Freddie Lewis a below average PG, not much of a distributor and only an average shooter and defender, while their 2 guards changed regularly and were unimpressive. Roger Brown at SF was a nice scorer with good range, great handles, and enough variety that his nickname was "the man of a thousand moves." He was definitely a key factor but he didn't play much defense or add much rebounding or playmaking. The PF were Bob Netolicky (the self proclaimed Joe Namath of the ABA) who was another excellent scorer and decent rebounder with no interest in defense then they replaced him with George McGinnis, another volume scorer (less efficient) and a great rebounder who generated a lot of assists, and turnovers. But for me, looking at this franchise's success, it was all built around Mel Daniels in the middle. A good scorer (consistently close to 20 a game on above average efficiency), great rebounder (usually among top in league), and powerful defender (better positionally than in help defense) who set the tone of the team and acted as their enforcer. His career was short and corresponds almost exactly with the rise and fall of the Pacers as a force in the ABA (his rookie year, he apparently shot a lot of long jump shots and had poor efficiency for Minnesota, which Leonard immediately banned when he came to Indiana).


Mel Daniels is certainly the only multiple MVP winner left. Nobody else changed or dominanted on both ends to the same degree for more than 1-1.5 years (Walton, Hawkins). Daniels was the best player on two championship teams plus a willing support role on a third championship though in a weak league (probably better than the pre-Russell 50s though). I tend to value defense, particularly for big men, and Mel was basically the original Alonzo Mourning with more rebounding but less shotblocking or, to use dhsilv2's comp, Moses Malone (without the longevity of course). He was a 1st round NBA pick (the first to sign with the ABA) and in the NBA would probably have been one of the best centers as well, not in the Jabbar league, but contending with Unseld/Cowens for the rebounding leaderboard and 2nd team All-Defense with good scoring (but poor playmaking). The two MVPs show he was valued above his box scores.

It is reasonable to compare Daniels to Kawhi Leonard as they have similar length of career by now. Kawhi brings excellent wing defense early on, but Daniels was probably more impactful defensively as intimidating defensive centers tend to be (especially in the 20th century). Kawhi's defense is still good and his scoring has blown up, a clearly better option than Daniels; also clearly a better passer. Daniels brings rebounding and toughness at a level equal to guys like Wes Unseld or Dave Cowens who are already in from his era (other league). I think the impact Daniels brought was appreciably higher in his league than that Kawhi has in the current league, enough to overcome the much weaker league he played in. Connie Hawkins would be another early ABA guy, higher peak than Daniels, shorter career though he did have a 1st team All-NBA between his first and second major knee injury. More of a career than Walton, less than Daniels. With careers this short, the difference is magnified. Of the bunch, I rate Daniels the highest.

For my alternative, I will go with Jerry Lucas, possibly the first great stretch 4. A great rebounder, good passer, efficient scorer, and very smart player. Lucas isn't in for two reasons. First, he was not a good defensive player. Like many of the great offensive players, he didn't put the same effort in on both ends. Second, he was not a winner in his prime. Cincinnati, despite Oscar Robertson and Jerry Lucas leading one of the best offenses in the NBA consistently, also consistently was an also ran, not even usually the main contender, during their tenure. Playing in the Eastern Conference with Russell and Chamberlain may have had something to do with it, but they seemed to underperform their talent a bit. Lucas comes across as sort of autistic; he memorizes phone books and kept running totals of his stats while he played, sometimes correcting the scorers if he thought they were not crediting him. This gave the him the rep of weird (at best) and maybe a bit selfish (at worst). But he is a combination of great rebounding and incredible shooting range (current 3 pointers were known as "Lucas Layups" to the Cincinnati announcers; he played outside offensively much of the time to give Oscar room to work inside. Possibly the 60s great (along with Jerry West) who would be most helped by today's game.

although at the end of his career he was part of an excellent defensive team in NY.
Getting mentioned by position:
PG Mookie, Cheeks, DJ, Tim Hardaway, Archibald
SG Sharman, Dumars, Lou Hudson, Richmond,
SF Chet Walker, Kawhi, Marques Johnson, Melo, Bernard King, Billy Cunningham, Wilkes, Dandridge
PF Amare, Connie Hawkins, Bailey Howell, Paul Silas, Kemp, McGinnis, Jerry Lucas, Buck
C Mel Daniels, Mark Gasol, Jack Sikma, Bellamy, Yao. Divac, Zelmo,

Why not Trex's candidate Carmelo Anthony? At the same position, I'd take Chet Walker over Carmelo. He scored less, but part of that was more of a commitment to team first play both in Philly and later in Chicago. Walker was a bit less efficient in the regular season (in a less efficient league), more efficient in the playoffs. He played excellent defense, I was actually surprised that Bob Love got an All-D award instead of Walker in Chicago. Rebounded a bit less, better passer with better handles (relative to the rules of his day). Slightly less longevity, but in a period where you had to attend 4 years of college and the medical support was appreciably worse.

What it comes down to is that I'd rather have the guy that does what Trex suggests Carmelo MIGHT have been able to do in the right situation; play good defense and score efficiently while contributing both to lead a consistent playoff offense (in Chicago) and contribute selflessly to an all-time great ensemble title team (67 Sixers). Of course, I will also vote for many of the other people listed here (many, not necessarily most) in the inevitable runoff against Carmelo as well.

[trex_8063]

1st vote: Carmelo Anthony
(edited)
An impact study of Melo is a little bit of a mixed bag (skewing toward "lower than expected": just so we don't embark on another semantic debate with my labeling ). His RAPM's (the impact metric I tend to put the most faith in, fwiw) look a bit questionable [that is: below expectation] in many years. otoh, WOWY studies, and team performance relative to cast, don't look too bad at all for a player gaining traction in the mid 80's section of the list (better in these regards than Elton Brand, as noted in previous thread).

But as I've said elsewhere, I'm not comfortable putting all my eggs into one basket (and certainly not all into one that isn't a direct measure of "player goodness"). If one were to base ranking/assessment on all other factors and metrics (outside of the impact umbrella), he may conclude we're already 10 or more places late on Carmelo Anthony.
With that in mind, I've a hard time putting him off any further.

Offensively he was clearly a superstar or near-superstar level player. Ranged from a very good to elite/near-elite scorer during his prime (despite spending much of that without terribly relevant play-makers around him). I've never been overly fond of his shot-selection (over-reliance on the mid-range), though that's merely what has kept him from being a consistently "elite" scorer. And in his defense, he does seem to end up taking a lot of dwindling shot-clock bail-out shots when the [often very flawed] offense has failed to generate a solid shot opportunity.

Not a particularly relevant playmaker, though no worse than James Worthy, Dominique Wilkins, or Kawhi Leonard. And he's been a very good rebounding SF (occ. SF/PF) in his career, and also provides some spacing.

A mostly weak defender with sporadic seasons of passable defense. I think most of us would agree that if he played consistently passable defense (I'm not talking good, merely passable), that he'd like have been voted by now (perhaps 10-20 places ago). pandrade83 noted something wrt Melo's defensive intensity on nationally televised games which perhaps speaks to something I've suspected about him (among other "offensive stars"): that Melo could play respectable defense if motivated to do so; perhaps if developed as a young player and deployed in a more offensively limited role-player capacity (as reported he was willing to do in the Olympics, fwiw) with defense being more of a primary focus. I find this of potential relevance as defense is generally the thing weighing down his impact metrics, and noting that impact is a combination of player quality, fit, and utilization. That he could perhaps play much better defense if motivated to do so and given less offensive responsibility is an intriguing thought to me, given players like Tony Allen or Andre Roberson are NOT capable of being good offensive players (motivated or not).

Longevity is actually pretty good by this point (substantially better than Webber, Kawhi, or Tiny; considering minutes, arguably better than Rodman, too).

He's criticized as being difficult to integrate into a contender (fwiw somewhat speculative, imo; difficult to imagine him being the BEST player on a solid contender, that I'd agree with), but at any rate a pretty decent floor-raiser (which carries more value [to me] than most seem to give it credit for).


2nd vote: Maurice Cheeks
Mo's an underrated offensive player, imo. Never a huge scorer, peaking at barely 15 ppg per 36 minutes, but on consistently excellent efficiency----career 52.6% eFG% over a 15-year career, peaking as high as 57.4%, which was pretty outstanding prior to high usage of the 3pt shot. He did it thru a combination of opportunistically attacking the rim (where he was a very good finisher, despite his size--->underrated athlete, as I'd mentioned in the previous thread), and excellent mid-range (13-20 ft) shooting.
He combined high-efficiency opportunistic low-to-middling volume scoring with solid playmaking (career 6.7 apg, peaking at 9.2 per game, and a career 3.26 Ast:TO ratio; very good Modified TOV%, too).

And then there's of course his defensive imprint, which is hinted at in accolades/rep: 5-Time All-Defensive Team (4x 1st team), tied for 3rd in DPOY shares in the first year it was offered ('83), tied for 4th the following year, 5th in '85, 6th in '87, tied for 8th in '88.
Notoriously pesky at harrying the ball-handler, both disrupting offensive flow and delaying how quickly the opposing team could get into their halfcourt offense, and was once the all-time leader in career steals before John Stockton (and subsequently Kidd, Jordan, and Payton) passed him.

Noisy though it is, his on/off splits look fantastic during his Philly years, as is noted beginning in post #152 of this thread. Look at that defensive split in '83!

Was good enough they put a statue of him outside the Sixers' stadium:


Very good longevity, too.
I sure hope we can get some traction for him soon.

[Clyde Frazier]

Will see if I can come back with any new content on what has become an uphill battle, but my vote stands as is…

Vote 1 - Carmelo Anthony

Vote 2 - Tiny Archibald

- 14 seasons
- 6x all NBA (two 2nd, four 3rd)
- 1 top 3 and 1 top 10 MVP finish
- 1x scoring champ

Players already voted in in Melo’s VORP and Win Shares range:

VORP

George Gervin 32.2 *-1 season
Bobby Jones 32
Dan Issel 31.2 *-3 seasons
Steve Nash 31.2
Carmelo Anthony 29.4
James Worthy 28.5
Kevin Johnson 28
Chris Bosh 27.5
Tony Parker 27
Bob McAdoo 26.5 *-1 season
Dave Cowens 26.2 *-3 seasons
Alonzo Mourning 24

*Number of seasons played prior to 73-74 where stat could not be calculated

Win Shares

In this case the total # of win shares speaks to Carmelo’s solid longevity. As a reference point, his prime WS/48 from 06-14 is .149 and he peaked at .184.

Hal Greer 102.7
Alex English 100.7
Grant Hilll 99.9
Allen Iverson 99
McGrady 97.3
Carmelo Anthony 97
Bobby Jones 94.1
Ben Wallace 93.5
Kevin Johnson 92.8
Sam Jones 92.3
Bob Cousy 91.1
James Harden 91.3
Sidney Moncrief 90.3
Dennis Rodman 89.8
Alonzo Mourning 89.7
Bob McAdoo 89.1
Dave Cowens 86.3
Chris Webber 84.7
James Worthy 81.2

In the seasons post 2014 top 100 project, the PG situation in new york did not improve at all:

14-15: Shane Larkin, Langston Galloway, 37 yr old prigioni, 33 yr old calderon

15-16: Langston Galloway, rookie Jerian Grant, 34 yr old Caldeorn — this PG rotation was so poor that carmelo ended up leading the team in APG and just about equaled calderon in AST%

16-17: Rose, Jennings, rookie Ron Baker

Jennings was really the one penetrate and dish PG the knicks had in those 3 seasons. He even seemed to buy in to the fact that he can’t shoot and really got everyone involved. Of course, he had rose starting in front of him, so his time on the floor with melo was limited. He was used more in bench lineups that actually thrived, relatively speaking.

In an era where dynamic PG play is paramount, knicks management abhorrently ignored the position. I don’t think you can find such ineptitude in a front office with playoff aspirations outside of the cousins-era kings.

Peak carmelo developed into one of the best offensive players in the league. The “iso melo” stigma really became an outdated narrative as you saw all he really needed was a decent PG rotation to keep the ball moving (a little different, but billups certainly got the best out of him in denver). He became one of the better off the ball players in 12-13, actually shooting more efficiently and on higher volume than durant in catch and shoot situations. His transition to a great 3 pt shooter also opened up his game, and he stepped into transition 3s about as well as anyone in the league.

He’s obviously known for his great post up and face up game, but not acknowledged as much for being a great offensive rebounder for his position. He had a deceptively quick second jump and soft touch around the rim for put backs. He also possessed a unique rolling spin move to the hoop i’m not sure anyone else in the league has. The one thing he was really average at is finishing at the rim, and i’d say that partially has to do with him not being able to take advantage of the way the game is called these days. He isn’t a freak show athlete like lebron, and he doesn’t have those long strides like durant / harden where they know the angles and draw fouls as easily as they do.

Carmelo had the full repertoire going with his career high 62 pts against charlotte last season (they ranked 5th in DRTG):

Watch on YouTube

I then look at someone like dominique, who was voted in at #62, and I think a 26 spot gap between the two is pushing it. Take a look at how they compare over their first 11 seasons (dominique actually comes off as worse if you look at his whole career):

http://bkref.com/tiny/KSWoH

They’re very comparable in most areas, and carmelo actually comes out as the better postseason performer, something wilkins was well criticized for, but still managed to get voted in much earlier. I noted trex's argument in past threads about nique consistently carrying offenses with not much support. It's a valid point, although again it's 26 spots later.

There always seemed to be this all or nothing evaluation of carmelo where he’d be expected to be as good as lebron / durant (which he obviously isn’t), or he’s barely a top 20 player in the league. You may want to fault him for forcing his way to NY, but let’s not pretend like many players voted in already haven’t done the same.

ronnymac brings up a good point about low turnovers being a plus for high usage players. Below are are 20+ PPG scorers in the playoffs (excluding centers) sorted by TO% (best to worst):

http://bkref.com/tiny/HO11E

Of course there are guys at the “bottom” who were very successful, but the lower TO% can help offset some of the decrease in efficiency we see with carmelo in the playoffs.

Then we get to the clutch play. 82games.com looked at shot data from 04-09 in the reg season + 04-08 in the post season. Carmelo was 6th in the league in game winners, but #1 in the league by far in FG% on game winners at 48.1%:

http://82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm

By 2011, he already had enough game winners to choose from to create a top 10 for his career:

Watch on YouTube

For clutch data from 2000-2012, carmelo was 7th in the league in FG%, and 50% of his FGs were assisted, which is interesting to note for being criticized for holding the ball too long.

http://bit.ly/1wnySdJ

[I’d obviously prefer eFG% or TS% for these figures, but they weren’t available here]

I’m aware that he hasn’t been quite as clutch over the last few seasons, but i attribute some of that to fatigue (he led the league in MPG last season) and the makeup of his teams. He’s still had his fair share of clutch moments since coming to NY, and hit multiple game winners during his first season here. He did give us this gem in 2012 as well:

Watch on YouTube

Carmelo gets a decent amount of flack for his playoff resume, and I think it’s a little overstated, so I’d like to provide some context for each season. It also seems to get pushed aside that making the playoffs 10 seasons in a row is no big deal or something, especially when the majority of them came out west. Below is carmelo’s team SRS rank and the opponent’s SRS rank that he lost to in the playoffs.

CARMELO SRS RANK / OPPONENT SRS RANK

04 - 11th / 2nd
05 - 10th / 1st (eventual NBA champion spurs)
06 - 15th / 9th
07 - 9th / 1st (eventual NBA champion spurs)
08 - 11th / 2nd
09 - 8th / 3rd (eventual NBA champion lakers)
10 - 8th / 3rd
11 - 15th / 6th
12 - 11th / 4th (eventual NBA champion heat)
13 - 7th / 9th

Aside from 2013, the team he lost to has always been favored in SRS, with 4 of the 10 series losses coming to the eventual NBA champs. To me, this doesn’t reflect a player who’s come up short when he’s been expected to go farther in the playoffs. You can make the argument that if he was a better player, he may have been favored in more series, but that only goes so far.

It’s clear that he hasn’t been as fortunate as some other players as far as who he’s played with. Some more details on his recent playoff loses:

09 - This run to the WCF almost gets glossed over at times. Nuggets were 2 wins away from the finals, losing to the eventual NBA champion lakers, who were just flat out the better team.

He had some great performances during that run.

11 - Billups gets hurt in game 1 against boston (out for rest of series), then amare gets hurt in game 2 only playing 17 min. First 2 games are decided by 2 and 3 points respectively.

Tony douglas forced to play PG for the rest of the series, basically putting it out of reach.

12 - Disastrous # of injuries. Tyson chandler finishes off a DPOY season, and of course gets the flu as soon as the playoffs start. Lin doesn’t come back for the playoffs, shumpert and douglas only play 1 game a piece, baron davis eventually goes down, and the knicks are only left with 33 yr old mike bibby to run the point, who already had 1 foot in retirement.

13 - First time since carmelo came to the knicks that they really looked like a team who could make a run to the finals. PG play was always an issue prior to this season, and felton came up big in the 1st round against boston. Ball movement flowing with kidd and prigioni as well. Then in the 2nd round against indiana, chandler again doesn’t look himself, which would later be revealed that he had an “undisclosed illness” during the series. I think there’s a good chance they beat the pacers with a healthy chandler, and who knows what happens from there.

As for defense, the last few seasons specifically he hasn’t been the same player physically. I’ve never claimed him to be a plus defender, even in his prime. I’m now reminded of some data i gathered in the 2014 project that i haven’t added here:

While not perfect, take a look at how the below SFs have performed against carmelo vs. their career averages. Sure, camrelo may not have been guarding them the whole time, but it's a large enough sample size to at least uncover any red flags.

(TS% or eFG% not available for head to head data)

Durant - 27.9 PPG on 43/41/87 (career 27.3 PPG on 48/38/88)

LeBron - 25.9 PPG on 49/27/70 (career 27.4 PPG on 50/34/75)

Gay - 18.6 PPG on 44/22/72 (career 18.4 PPG on 45/34/79)

George - 15.1 PPG on 45/34/77 (career 15.3 PPG on 43/36/83)

Pierce - 23.1 PPG on 50/41/80 (career 20.9 PPG on 45/37/81)

Granger - 16.6 PPG on 45/39/88 (career 16.8 PPG on 43/38/85)

Caron Butler - 12.4 PPG on 43/38/84 (career 14.5 PPG on 43/34/85)

McGrady - 19.6 PPG on 45/44/82 (career 19.6 PPG on 44/34/75)

Deng - 17.1 PPG on 45/36/83 (career 16.9 PPG on 46/33/77)

Josh Howard - 12.7 PPG on 44/31/79 (career 14.3 PPG on 45/33/77)

Richard Jefferson - 14.2 PPG on 51/43/66 (career 14 PPG on 47/38/77)

Stephen Jackson - 17.4 PPG on 35/33/86 (career 15.1 PPG on 41/33/80)

Of the 12 players, 6 scored the same or less than their career averages against carmelo. Those that scored more were only by marginal amounts. Efficiency ranges from lower to somewhat higher. No red flags here.

That’s 11 seasons of data. It doesn’t paint the picture of an egregious defender.

Here are the best players carmelo’s played with over the course of his career: andre miller (first few seasons of carmelo's career), kenyon martin (often injured), post 30s iverson, camby (often injured), JR smith, nene (often injured), billups, afflalo, amare (often injured), tyson chandler (often injured), kidd in his last season, in shape felton and porzingis' rookie/soph year.

Outside of iverson, that’s a collection of good players, but nothing that screams "consistent second option", or even "consistent first option" if you want to push carmelo down a notch. Porzingis and carmelo actually had great chemistry until rose came along, but their timelines unfortunately didn't match up. Fit is clearly important, too, and while iverson and carmelo never had "problems" with each other, it wasn't working. It’s not an accident that carmelo’s best seasons came with billups running the show in 2009 and a knicks team in 2013 which focused heavily on keeping the ball moving and quick decision making.

With regard to how carmelo’s career is perceived, I always go back to pierce before garnett and allen came along. Even if we agree that pierce is the better player, he had only been to the conf finals once before that trade, and i’m not sure how his career progresses without those trades being made. Does he stick with it in boston and not make anymore playoff runs? Does he eventually go to another team? I just wonder how carmelo would be looked at had he been fortunate enough to play with teammates of that caliber in his prime.

[Doctor MJ]

Let's see who will be the next to beat Carmelo Anthony in a runoff.....

What if we do just that? Give Melo a bye to the runoff until he gets in? That would raise the sample effectively voting for the next challenger and probably make this type of think a lot less frustrating for Melo supporters.

[penbeast0]

I don't think it would be good. He basically has had two (of our relatively few consistent posters) supporters with little outside support. Heck, Mel Daniels has been getting (one) first place vote longer than Melo has (for what that's worth). Let's stick with what we've got and see what happens. Sooner or later either Melo will get enough additional support . . . or we will hit 100.

[dhsilv2]

Hmm so I get 11 more people in.

Mookie, Porter, Cheeks, Sharman, Tiny, Hardaway, Dumars, Dj, Bellamy, Vlade, Melo, Leonard....that's 12.

Really feeling bad about some of the players who are going to miss the list.

[SactoKingsFan]

I agree with penbeast0. We've had other guys go 10+ threads receiving support before getting voted in. I think Webber started getting votes in early 70s last project and didn't get in until 86.

Sent from my Essential PH-1 using Tapatalk

[Outside]

Hmm so I get 11 more people in.

Mookie, Porter, Cheeks, Sharman, Tiny, Hardaway, Dumars, Dj, Bellamy, Vlade, Melo, Leonard....that's 12.

Really feeling bad about some of the players who are going to miss the list.

Porter got in at no. 88, so you can theoretically still get them all in.

[penbeast0]

....
Players already voted in in Melo’s VORP and Win Shares range who arguably were as bad as Carmelo defensively:

VORP
George Gervin 32.2 *-1 season
Dan Issel 31.2 *-3 seasons
Steve Nash 31.2
Carmelo Anthony 29.4

Win Shares
Allen Iverson 99
Carmelo Anthony 97
Bob Cousy 91.1
James Harden 91.3

Players who also were considered poor intangible guys (by me) in Carmelo's range . . .

Allen Iverson

That's it.

And I didn't vote for Iverson either.

[SactoKingsFan]

Melo keeps dropping compared to my top candidates for the next 10 spots mostly due to his poor defense and not being sold on his offensive superstar status. I don't really doubt what Maurice Cheeks brought to the table over his long career. In addition to good longevity, Cheeks provides excellent defense, clearly positive offensive contributions ( Moonbeam's Score+ metrics suggest Cheeks was an underrated scorer) and good intangibles.

Primary vote: Maurice Cheeks

Alt: Vlade Divac

Sent from my Essential PH-1 using Tapatalk

[trex_8063]

Thru post #11:

Carmelo Anthony - 2 (Clyde Frazier, trex_8063)
Maurice Cheeks - 1 (SactoKingsFan)
Mel Daniels - 1 (penbeast0)


About 21-22 hours left until runoff for this one.

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[pandrade83]

Last time out, I wrote about a PG comparison between Hardaway, Cheeks, Porter & Blaylock.

I'll make the case for Hardaway succinctly:

He was the best player on a pair of 55+ win squads, RAPM tells us he was highly impactful and only Hardaway has generated 5 All-NBA Appearances with a Top 5 MVP finish post merger amongst remaining players. Everyone at the time thought he was really good, impact data that we have now that we didn't have then validates it and he was capable of being the best player on winning teams. This shouldn't be that hard.

The Blaylock case is a little more complex. Your memory isn't going to tell you anything eye-popping and at the time, people who followed basketball didn't see him as that impactful.

But like Hardaway, he was the best player on a pair of 55+ winners. RAPM - like with Hardaway - tells us he was outstanding in his prime - and while his prime didn't last that long, it was very impactful towards winning. His shooting was erratic - and he has many years with poor TS% - but he impacts the game in other ways as evidenced by his 5 Top 10 VORP Finishes including a pair of finishes in the Top 5.

Primary: Tim Hardaway
Alternate: Mookie Blaylock

Spoiler:

For fun a few comparisons I'd like to see discussion on.

1. Porter | Hardaway | Sharman (maybe?)
2. Cheeks | Mookie
3. And not sure who but we need a few of the volume scorers getting mentions.

Basically, who was the best in similar roles among those coming up. I think it'll help with where we place them in the project.

I think all 4 Point guards listed here are excellent candidates. I see very little separation. This post is to help create awareness for all 4 and I'd be fine with any of them getting in.

We have enough evidence that RAPM views each highly (which I'll speak to), but one arbitrary cut-off from the Box Score that I used was high impact & very high impact. This treats a year as high impact if VORP is above 4, PER is above 18 or WS is above 8; it treats a year as very high impact if VORP is above 5, PER is above 20 or WS is above 10.

Porter brought spacing and was ahead of his time. A strong 3 point shooter who netted 63% TS in his best year ('91), Porter was a solid point guard who was an excellent #2 for outstanding offenses from '88-'92 that netted fantastic offensive ratings of an average +3.2 over that time horizon. Porter has the most WS of this bunch as NPI RAPM views him favorably late into his career. While we don't know what the metric would've viewed him as during his prime, we can infer it would be likely to think highly of him. I view him as a very efficient player - strong TS%'s, solid defender, achieved strong TO economy in the last half of his prime and helped key powerful offenses. I view him as a poor man's Chris Paul.

Relative to the group, I think Porter brings the highest peak - I really like his '91 season - he also leads in Win Shares. My arbitrary box score rating gives him 3 very high impact years and 3 high impact years.

Watch on YouTube

Cheeks was an outstanding floor general - I view him as a poor man's John Stockton but with a bit more athletic prowess. A superb defender who is 5th in steals all time and made 5 consecutive All-Defensive teams. Although Cheeks maxes out at 15 PPG, he's an efficient shooter who has a career TS of 57% with several seasons at or right at 60%. Based on Sixer +/- data that we have access too from the 80's that Trex has posted, we know that impact data thinks highly of him.

While he was the least aggressive playmaker of the quartet, he still has 3 years at over 8 assists per game.

My arbitrary box score metrics give him 1 very high impact year - the least of the bunch & 5 high impact years.

While scoring wise, the below video is an aberration, you see the aggressive defense, the high energy & the general enthusiasm for the game. He was past his prime by the time I was watching games, but he was still fun to watch even in his post prime. I view him as the weakest of the four - but I think it's perfectly reasonable that our fearless leader disagrees.

Watch on YouTube

Mookie Blaylock was an erratic player who put it together for a few years in Atlanta - leading successful Hawk teams including a pair of 55+ game winners as their best player. Blaylock may have been an even better defender than Cheeks - making All-Defense 6 times. He was an erratic shooter to say the least who needed to work on his shot selection - he finishes with TS% over 50 just 3 times & peaks at only 55 - but he was TO resilient for a PG, finishing his career at 14%. He's an aggressive ball thief who finishes in Top 10 in steals virtually every year and leads the league in steals multiple times without having to gamble. He rebounds well for a guard as well - leading this group in rebounding %. In the playoffs, he suffered offensively most years - but had a tendency to shut down the opposition defensively - as the video will show. RAPM views him very highly in '97 & even as he starts to exit his prime in '98 & '99.

My arbitrary box score metrics give him 4 very high impact years and 1 high impact year. He's the most volatile of the group, but for me, he has the best sustained peak.

Watch on YouTube

Tim Hardaway is my pick from this group. A point guard is supposed to be a playmaker and drive the offense. Hardaway does this the best. He's by far the most dynamic scoring threat of the pack - the only player to average 20 PPG & he does so 5 times while maintaining a 14% TO economy or better in all years but '95. Of course, the thing that really seperates him apart is his ability to create plays for others - he has a CAREER assist % of 37.9% Blaylock achieves that figure just once in his career and the rest never do even for one season. His 5 year RAPM - which includes 3 post-prime years from '97-'01 - views him as an ALl-Star when the data is chained and elite for '97 & '98.

He excels in two different environments - the high scoring Golden State situation and the rock-fight oriented Heat squad with Alonzo Mourning. He - for me - has the 2nd most impressive peak, leading the Heat to 61 games & the ECF on the heels of a monster playoff performance vs. the Knicks. Later in his career, he goes from an explosive athlete to a canny intelligent player.

He's not as strong a defender as Blaylock or Cheeks - but he's pesky and can force turnovers.

His playoffs is a bit of a roller coaster, skewing slightly negative - but is highlighted by strong performances vs. NY in '97 & '98, & a fantastic run in '91.

I chose to go with a GSW era video, but that's because that's how I personally choose to remember him - as part of Run TMC.

My arbitrary box score metric gives him 3 very high impact years & 5 high impact years - the most total high impact or above years of the group.

Watch on YouTube

Primary: Tim Hardaway
Alternate: Blaylock

[Outside]

[Copy/paste/edit from post in a prior thread]

Vote: Carmelo Anthony

Alternate: Jack Sikma

I'm going with Carmelo due to his pluses outweighing his negatives a bit better than the other candidates being considered at this point.

Scoring -- he's a solid scorer, averaging at least 20 PPG every season until this one.

Efficiency -- his shooting efficiency is decent for a volume scorer, and he has a low usage rate compared to his high usage peers.

Rebounding -- he was a good rebounder during his prime.

Defense -- doesn't rate well as a defender, though I think he was a decent post defender in his prime.

Playmaking -- not a relevant playmaker.

Longevity -- has has good RS longevity.

Postseason -- he doesn't have near enough decent playoff runs for my liking, making it out of the first round only twice, though he has good PS production. He was never on teams good enough to be championship contenders.

Overall, this seems like a good place for him to land.

Mo Cheeks, Tim Hardaway, Mookie Blaylock -- I'm fine with all of them getting in at this point. Blame Trex for my Sikma alternate vote -- he brought him up in the last thread, and the more I look at him, the more I like him.

[trex_8063]

Wanted to throw in a quick comp of Chet Walker to Carmelo Anthony, as it had come up earlier. Full disclosure (as should be no surprise based on my recent voting history): I'm going to slant things in Melo's favor.
I'll adjust for pace by using per 100 possession numbers (for Walker are largely estimated from team pace estimates shown on bbref and per game numbers, which have been minute-weighted to give a career avg estimate).......

Walker averaged (per 100 possessions) 23.75 pts @ +4.3 rTS, 9.1 reb, 2.7 ast for his career (rs).
Melo (thru '17) avg 34.9 pts @ +0.7% rTS, 9.3 reb, 4.4 ast.

So Walker's shooting efficiency is better (certainly by a significant, though not exactly Earth-shattering, degree), but on substantially lower volume. Some have argued they'd like to see Melo shooting/scoring less on better efficiency (perhaps numbers nearer to what Walker did), though I must confess a pinch of "who do you give the shots to, then?" counterpoint thought. For TWO seasons (out of 14), the obvious answer is Chauncey Billups. Chauncey hadn't previously in his career shown inclination to take on large volume scoring though, so it's difficult to say how comfortable he'd feel in such a role. And fwiw, he did have his career high in ppg and TSA/game in Denver in '10 (at 33 years of age), playing next to Anthony.
I'll also note that the two lowest TSA/game avg's for Melo in the decade '06-'15 came in '12 (playing next to post-prime Amar'e) and '09 (playing next to Billups).

And aside from Billups, who else on his clubs would you have wanted to shift more of the offensive load to? Bear in mind, he rarely had a good playmaker at the point (as Clyde has pointed out multiple times), and never exactly had a brilliant coach either to more easily "make things happen" on offense.

Aside from the 2+ years with Billups, who else? Kenyon Martin?
In '07 or '08, do we really want late-prime/post-prime Allen Iverson taking on more than he already was? Do we want JR Smith (who sadly was, at times, the 2nd-best scoring option) getting even more primacy than he already had? Smith basically followed Melo to NY, and had all of his highest volume seasons----as much as 18.1 ppg [on below avg efficiency] in '13----playing next to Melo.

So there is some indication of Melo attempting to share the scoring load......when there was actually talent around worth sharing it with. And again, not much playmaking to help him (which frequently forced Melo into isolation situations).


Walker, otoh, played next to Hal Greer and Red Kerr (also Larry Costello) initially, then Wilt/Cunningham/Greer, then Love/Sloan/Van Lier (these latter three not a great offensive trio, though probably better than Smith/Martin/Camby for example; and all willing to shoulder some volume).......so it just seems there were more/better options around him to share with. And between Wilt, Van Lier, Costello, and Tom Boerwinkle (+ Greer, fwiw), generally better playmakers around him, too.

So I kind of take things in mind when comparing their respective scoring profiles. Walker could more easily and justifiably relinquish some volume to his teammates due to the caliber of teammates he generally had; which allowed him a little more "preferential" shot selection; he also had [usually] a better class of facilitators. As result [perhaps], his career rTS is +3.6% relative to Melo's. Is that any more than might be expected given the circumstances? And could Walker buck up his volume to the heights Melo maintained while still remaining above league avg efficiency? And given Walker played with better offensive talents to share with, why aren't his playmaking stats (AST) a little more robust?
I don't know, fwiw; just putting the questions out there.


One might note that pts (and associated assists) per 100 were a little lower in Walker's day due to lower shooting %'s and stat-keeping of the time. Roughly, league average Pts/100 poss (per player) was about 1.5-2 pts lower; league avg Ast/100 (per player) was about 0.5-1 lower. You can make the following adjustments to Walker's numbers above, but they're still significantly below Melo's production rates.

penbeast0 had rated Walker as having the better handles and playmaking [relative to times], but I'd disagree. In watching him, that was actually the thing I was LEAST impressed with about Walker (and not even close); I felt these were clearly [and by a good margin] the weakest aspects of his game. In a game I watched from as late as '75 (ball-handling restrictions significantly looser than they were at the start of Walker's career) I found his handle to be [rather extremely] limited.

And fwiw, the flip-side of more missed shots is more rebounds available (per same number of possessions). And yet Melo's avg is still +0.2 above Walker's (Melo's edge in playoff sample is +1.4, fwiw). So he clearly appears the better rebounder of the two.


Defensively, yeah, there's no contest. Walker's got a very good reputation (specifically mentioned by Alex Hannum, for one that I can remember off-hand), and looks decent in the couple games (Bulls years) I've watched. Melo is obv not decent on that end. So I'll hand that to Walker easily.


Regarding playoff performance, Walker sees a bit of decline too (fairly similar to that seen by Melo).

I'd also point out in this largely statistically-based comparison that Melo's production came in a [clearly, imo] more competitive era, and generally in slightly higher mpg (since we're looking at rate metrics); has about +2000 career minutes on Walker (prior to this season).


So anyway, I see it as very close, and I'd be content with Walker getting in around now. But imo, Anthony is slightly more deserving.

[SactoKingsFan]

Anyone thinking about adding Baron Davis as a serious candidate? Looks like a star based on RAPM and has some great playoff performances.

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[pandrade83]

Anyone thinking about adding Baron Davis as a serious candidate? Looks like a star based on RAPM and has some great playoff performances.

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I think I'm going to run out of room. I've kinda got my PG spots spoken for and I don't see him above any of the remaining candidates I'm looking at. Aside from guys I'm actively supporting (these are not necessarily in order), a list of players I'm considering as we get down the stretch.

I can't even get all of these guys in (plus I've been stuck on Tim Hardaway for a while).



Point Guards
Mo Cheeks: Excellent defender, +/- data from Philly days suggests high impact, efficient player, Never was the best player on a team that did anything at all, arguably the least threatening offensive player amongst quality PG's left, Philly's offensive efficiency #'s don't scream high impact, even though the +/- data does.



Wings/Forwards & Guards

Buck Williams: #1 in WS amongst post-merger players remaining implying excellent longevity, had a couple superb playoff runs early in his career ('84 stands out for me), but was the best player on New Jersey teams that lost 55+ 3 straight years including a 60 loss season.

Kawhi: Best peak of a modern player not in aside from Walton, worst longevity other than Walton


Carmelo Anthony: See other debates

At least one of Walker/Cunningham/McGinnis: I need to be better informed here & am looking forward to reading some of the discussions on these players. I think at least one needs to get in - not sure which one to advocate for first.

Era concerns plague all of them for me - in totality professional basketball had nearly as many teams as today with a much weaker talent pool.

Mcginnis seems to be the most dynamic of the trio, but has the worst meaningful longevity & his turnover level makes me think he was careless and/or irresponsible with the ball.

I wish Walker was a better rebounder and/or passer - but he was the best player of some impressive Chicago teams - particularly the '72 squad He was also, along with Greer & Cunningham, leaders of a strong post-Wilt Philly team & was a key contributor to a GOAT Caliber Sixer team (like Cunningham).

Cunningham brought a lot to the table (dynamic scoring, good playmaker, good rebounder, appears to have been a capable defender - has a year of steals data with > 200 steals) but also takes a bit off with high turnovers & some sub-par shooting years as well as a lot of fouls. I'm impressed that he was able to win an ABA MVP when the league was roughly on par with the NBA & like that he was able to take a Kentucky team led by Gilmore & Issel to 7.





Centers
Vlade Divac: #1 in Career VORP amongst all remaining players, best player on a team that did win a playoff series ('95 Lakers) - which is not something that every player being discussed can say, added value at all stops - not too many standout years.

Bill Walton: Unparalleled peak amongst those left, unparalleled longevity too

Zelmo Beaty: Sorry, Pen. He's the ABA Center I'm taking. We know he was able to have success pre-ABA and his career was trending upward, and while that '71 season is an outlier relative to the rest of his career, it's still a better season than Daniels was ever able to achieve. Given the lack of medical training in the era, I wonder if having a year off did his body good.

Amare: I know he's weak defensively, but his offensive power is pretty remarkable at this stage - other than Hardaway, the only other player to achieve 5 X all-NBA with at least one first team appearance.

Sikma: Strong floor spacer, passer & rebounder - not as strong of a defensive presence, but worthwhile nonetheless.

Bellamy: Simmons crucified him in his book, but he is the Top WS guy left, so he needs a look.

[dhsilv2]

Anyone thinking about adding Baron Davis as a serious candidate? Looks like a star based on RAPM and has some great playoff performances.

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"Hell no"? Really liked him as a player, but doesn't even once crack a 10 WS. Some of his better box score years, he missed too many games. He's a top 100 level talent guy, but I don't see it. That said if we were talking top 120, he would likely get consideration, so he's not a bad guy to throw out there. But we have a lot of good guards left and I can't see him topping that group.

[SactoKingsFan]

Don't think I'll vote for Amare. The defense is a problem and he only had 4 healthy prime seasons. 2011 wasn't a prime or All-NBA caliber season. That takes some of the shine off the 5 All-NBA teams. I'd prefer Kemp, one of the other bigs or even LaMarcus Aldridge.

Walker, Cunningham and McGinnis all have cases for cracking the top 100. Cunningham seems to have the most compelling case.

Probably won't vote for Walton. 1.5 prime seasons and a great role player season just isn't enough.

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[dhsilv2]

Vote Mookie Blaylock

What I like. Elite defensive guard that is backed up by RAPM data and box score stats. He also easily passes the eye test with some of the videos posted by others. i'm not aware of any intangible issues (and an fyi for those trying to get me to move a vote or bring your guy in next, intangibles are a huge selling point that can sway me). A strong peak by most metrics.

What I don't like. Wasn't much of a scorer and despite a nice peak assist number, not a lot of elite passing total years. Limited playoff sample sizes. Despite the 6x all defensive selections, only a 1 time allstar.

Alt Tim Hardaway

I'm looking at Cheeks and Vlade next. And after that I'm likely going to just go ahead and vote Melo...