Just going to piggy-back on pen's comments.....
pandrade83 wrote:.
penbeast0 wrote:The forwards, a quick summary.
Kawhi --highest peak, shortest career, team seems to do just fine when he misses games though don't know whether that is a true indicator or just Pop and the troops rallying around their missing leader.
Last year they were on pace for slightly MORE wins when he was out than when he was active; but in the prior two years they were on pace for slightly more wins when he was playing than when he was out. I have not looked at changes in pt differential or SRS, though.
But whereas last year they were a +7.13 SRS with 61 wins, they're currently [almost entirely without Kawhi] a +2.58 SRS on pace for about 49 wins. Granted, guys like Parker, Ginobili, and Gasol are one year further into decline, and they got rid of Dedmon; but on the flip-side they've seen improvements in some of their young players (most notably Kyle Anderson), and added Lauvergne, Rudy Gay (though injured some of year), and solid rookie in Dejounte Murray. So I'm left to speculate that the majority of the reason they're not as good as last year is the absence of Kawhi.
Though fwiw, I agree with what you've suggested that the Spurs is perhaps an organization where WOWY data is going to be less reliable than usual. Pop is the master of finding line-ups that work, and the he and Spurs are consistently one of the best organizations wrt getting maximum value/potential out of their role players. Their calling card is also depth (which for obvious reasons helps when you have to survive stretches with relevant injuries); note for instance they have 11 players on their roster who avg >15 mpg (with at least 34 games played).
But all of that said, while you [penbeast0] were not one of them, there were several posters who stolidly rejected or disregarded all WOWY and regressed WOWY (WOWYR) data I'd presented in prior threads (mostly pertaining to Carmelo Anthony and Elton Brand, though players like Mookie and Chet Walker were also mentioned). It would be a bit disingenuous for them to now use that same information for or against Kawhi here.
penbeast0 wrote:Chet Walker -- Solid long career. Excellent one on one scorer and defender. Has played multiple roles on successful teams from the ATG 67 Sixers where he was a terrific second option (playing ahead of fresh out of college Cunningham) to primacy on some very good (but not ultimately successful) Chicago teams although they were also full of very good talent, particularly defensively.
I have some career per 100 possession estimated data (both rs and playoff) and career rTS% I can share for Walker. Bear in mind during his era the league avg [per 100 poss] for pts and ast were slightly lower, while the avg for rebs was a bit higher. Full disclosure: these career per 100 avg's were obtained by figuring out the per 100 poss estimates for each pre-'74 season, then making a minute-weighted career average. For simplicity for the rTS%, I simply took the collective league avg TS% of his entire career (avg of the years he played; in case of playoffs only those years he was in the ps) and compared that to his career TS%.
Chet Walker career Per 100 Possessions (rs): 23.75 pts, 9.1 reb, 2.7 ast, +4.33% rTS (in 32.4 mpg)
Chet Walker career Per 100 Possessions (ps): 22.1 pts, 8.4 reb, 2.45 ast, +2.57% rTS (in 35.1 mpg)
penbeast0 wrote:George McGinnis -- Power forward where the rest mainly played SF. The most talented, the least disciplined. The best rebounder, even discounting for profession. Extremely turnover prone and not particularly focused on defense.
Pretty well agree. Scored a highish volume, though often mediocre shooting efficiency.
I am quite impressed with his rebounding rates, though, especially on the offensive glass (guys like Moses and Rodman showed how much of an offensive impact that can have). Including estimates for his first two seasons (as I did above for Walker), McGinnis had a career avg of 5.0 OREB/100 poss (14.75 TREB) in the rs, and 5.15 OREB/100 poss (15.05 TREB) in the playoffs.
He also distributed a fair amount for a PF, with career avg of 4.9 Ast/100 possessions (5.05 in the playoffs).
His defensive reputation is kinda meh, and I'll certainly have to defer to penbeast0 on that, as the only games I've seen of McGinnis were from the '77 Finals (he didn't really impress defensively in those). However, I'll hand him this: he did appear to force a fair number of turnovers for a PF, averaging 2.5 stl/100 possessions during the rs (1.9 in the playoffs).
Turnovers are the real problem for McGinnis, though. That, and I suppose that his longevity isn't great. If not for the turnovers, I'd say he should already have been voted in, though. Career estimated avg 5.5 tov/100 possessions in the rs (5.1 in the playoffs). Knock 1 or 1.5 off of those averages, and he'd look like an awfully impressive player, imo; probably a top 80 guy.
penbeast0 wrote:Billy Cunningham -- the best athlete other than McGinnis. Known as the Kangaroo Kid for his hops. Relied on athleticism and getting to the basket early in his career but continually improved his game, adding playmaking and outside shooting. Tough guy, above average defender, not very efficient with his scoring. ABA MVP in his healthy year in Carolina under Larry Brown.
I think Cunningham was arguably the next-best peak behind Kawhi, and is arguably the most versatile guy (noting, as penbeast0 did, how he improved his playmaking and shooting as his career went on, also that he flip-flopped between SF and PF). He's also the most lacking in longevity of the old-era guys.
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