Primary Vote: Bill Walton
Alternate: KawhiSynopsis of argument: Bill Walton has a Top 15 peak in '77 but he has more years of value besides that. He has impact in '76, '84-'86 & won MVP in '78 with Portland on pace for a win total that would've put them in consideration for team of the decade if not for injury. The years people don't think of when they think of him ('76, '84-'86) are very high impact, low minute years.
I think we all understand Bill Walton's peak. But it's another to see it.
Walton finished 13th in the most recent RGM Peaks project - the next 10 players behind him:
Julius Erving
Oscar Robertson
Dwayne Wade
Steph Curry
Dirk Nowitzki
Jerry West
Kevin Durant
Patrick Ewing
Tracy McGrady
Kobe Bryant
That's quite a list of people to be ahead of - and so we have to keep that value in mind.
The most common rebuttal I'm going to hear is "That's great, but it is just the one year."
But if you dig deeper, you see he offers more value than "just the one year". It's certainly problematic to my case that these years are not going to be consecutive, but let's look at years where I think he offered some meaningful value. I'm going to omit '77 from this because we're all familiar with it.
'76 - Portland goes 26-25 with; 11-20 without. Even though Walton isn't yet the defensive force he'd become, Portland is 6th in DRtg. Walton averages 16.1 pts-13.4 reb-4.3 assists + 1.6 blocks. He does this despite logging just 33 mpg. He was healthy at the end of the year so it's likely he could have played in the playoffs.
'78 - Portland goes 48-10 with; 10-14 without! That's the difference between a 68 win pace & a 34 win pace. Walton is the anchor of a super team - and this is after the merger. Walton wins MVP and the impact on winning is quite pronounced. Walton averages 19-13-5-2.5 blocks this year on 52% shooting. It's unfortunate that the injury robs him of what otherwise would have likely been a Portland title - but this year is impactful for the regular season.
In '84 & '85, Walton plays 75% of the games for the Clippers. It's not well remembered but he's still effective - even the limited clips we have of that time support it.
From a scouting standpoint, Walton still possesses stellar passing capabilities & excellent rim protection. You'll see that his ability to get up & down the court is diminished considerably - his quickness isn't as strong as the Portland tape, but he's still an effective player. The diminished mobility robs him of some defensive impact - but while on court he's impactful.
In '84 the Clippers are 23-32 with, 7-20 without - a 34 win pace with & 21 win pace without. Walton is a 12-9-3 player plus nearly 2 blocks per game in just 26 mpg with a TS% of 57%.
In '85 it's a similar story - the Clippers are a 33 win pace team with Walton & a 22 win pace team without.
Then in '86 he joins Boston and becomes a key member of one of the teams in the GOAT discussion.
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His playing time is limited - just 19 mpg - but the rate statistics are impressive: 14-13-4-2.5 blocks on 61% TS.
All told, he has what this board determines is the 13th best peak, plus 5 more strong impact - if limited minute years.
It's not just the magical '77 campaign.
I mentioned at the top if we get to slot 96 and Mookie isn't in that I'm going to flip it and here's why - and this is how I'll wrap up.
Pretend that you have a full business day to cover the history of professional basketball with an alien. What topics would you cover? What names would you mention?
Go through our list starting at around slot #65. Do those guys get covered? Sometimes yes, sometimes no. I promise you that Bill Walton gets discussed.
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I think Kawhi has lost some luster because of what's happened this year but if I'm putting Walton up here, it would be inconsistent of me not to put Kawhi right after him.
Some of the reasons I'm advocating for Kawhi:
-The Spurs went from a +7 in SRS to +2.7 without him. That's a drop-off equivalent from contender to 1st/2nd round exit level exit. LMA has had a resurgent year & Kyle Anderson, Murray have emerged to off-set the further decline of Parker, Manu & Pau.
-Best peak - non-Walton category left. Robust box score metrics are augmented with 3 straight Top 5 finishes in RPM - indicating that it's not a fluke and that he is extremely impactful within the Spurs system.
-Won a FMVP in a Finals that included: Lebron James, Dwayne Wade, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker & Manu.
-Has now been the best player on a team that had SRS ranging from +6.2 to +10.3.
In case you forgot since he's been out this year . . .
The guy can play.
I understand that the longevity is lacking, but you either get guys who were very good - but definitely not great for a long time - or you get guys who really moved the needle in a big way over a short duration.
I'd rather have the former.
