GSP wrote: yoyoboy wrote:
Why would the Heat be favored on the second night of a back to back, on the road, playing a team with the best defense in the league and on a 6 game win streak?
I'm not saying the Heat should be favored in Vegas. I'm saying 8 points seems pretty extreme when Miami is currently a 10+ SRS team despite missing Butler for 3 games. And while being on the tail end of a back to back does play a role, I think Miami is better equipped to deal with that than any other team in the association given their depth and their dedication to being in top physical shape.
I could see it going either way but personally I would pick Miami ever so slightly to win tonight just because it feels like the type of game where the Lakers will get punched in the mouth early and struggle to claw back into it. This Heat team is really tough and LA still has some kinks to iron out. I really am not convinced at all that the Lakers can sustain McGee in the starting lineup going forward.
Well they covered. Not sure why youre so pessimistic about this team. Its the best defensive team hes ever played on and Ad is arguably over 11 Wade as best teammate too
Yeah I was wrong. Tired legs definitely played much more of a factor than I thought it would.
And I'm not saying the Lakers aren't a great team. I just don't think as currently constructed they can beat LAC, Milwaukee, or Philly. They're winning despite some glaring issues like the awful 3 point shooting and poor defensive rebounding. And it's because in spite of the mediocre defensive rebounding, the defense has been insane - unsustainably good in fact. After tonight, LA is at about a 95.6 DRTG for the season. That's -10.9 points better than league average. To give a comparison of the #1 defenses of the past 3 years:
2017: SAS - 103.5 DRTG (-5.3)
2018: BOS - 103.9 DRTG (-4.7)
2019: MIL - 105.2 DRTG (-5.2)
Scoring is currently down league wide compared to prior seasons (possibly due to the focus on calling more travels and players having to adjust to that) but even if it stays as low as it is right now it's very unlikely that LA will be able to post a DRTG on the season below 100 and they probably won't end up below 102 to be honest. And so once the defense reaches a more sustainable point, the Lakers would need more offense to compensate for that loss. The three point shooting will probably rebound and not stay at 30.8%. But I don't think it's extreme to say this team will probably finish in the bottom third of the league in shooting from range based on what we've seen (LA was 29th last year by the way). And that would probably be a mark of around 34-35%. That improvement is going to lead to a much smaller boost in LA's offense than the defensive regression that will likely happen. And I haven't even mentioned the lack of perimeter creators beyond LeBron, which is the second biggest concern for the team right now. I'm sure if the shooting improves it'll lead to better inside scoring opportunities and thus give more of a boost to the offense than just the raw percentage increase would suggest, but I'm still not convinced the offense will be where it needs to be without some kind of trade.
2016 NBA Champions.