#40 - GOAT peaks project (2019)---'73 Walt Frazier

[LA Bird]

1) Michael Jordan 1990-91
2) LeBron James 2012-13
3) Wilt Chamberlain 1966-67
4) Shaquille O'Neal 1999-00
5) Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1976-77
6) Tim Duncan 2002-03
7) Larry Bird 1985-86
8) Bill Russell 1963-64
9) Hakeem Olajuwon 1993-94
10) Magic Johnson 1986-87
11) Kevin Garnett 2003-04
12) Julius Erving 1975-76
13) Bill Walton 1976-77
14) Oscar Robertson 1963-64
15) Stephen Curry 2015-16
16) Dwyane Wade 2008-09
17) Jerry West 1965-66
18) David Robinson 1994-95
19) Dirk Nowitzki 2010-11
20) Kobe Bryant 2007-08
21) Tracy McGrady 2002-03
22) Moses Malone 1982-83
23) Patrick Ewing 1989-90
24) Kevin Durant 2013-14
25) Russell Westbrook 2016-17
26) Charles Barkley 1992-93
27) Kawhi Leonard 2018-19
28) Chris Paul 2007-08
29) George Mikan 1948-49
30) Steve Nash 2004-05
31) Giannis Antetokounmpo 2018-19
32) Karl Malone 1996-97
33) Dwight Howard 2010-11
34) Artis Gilmore 1974-75
35) James Harden 2018-19
36) Willis Reed 1968-69
37) Rick Barry 1974-75
38) Bob McAdoo 1974-75
39) Bob Pettit 1958-59
40) Walt Frazier 1972-73

Please include at least 1 sentence of reasoning for each of your 3 picks. A simple list of names will not be counted.

Deadline: 8pm November 21 Eastern Time

Last round!

The Voting System:

Everyone gives their 1st choice (4.5 points), 2nd choice (3 points), and 3rd choice (2 points). Highest point-total wins the round.
You can use your 3 choices to vote for more than 1 season of the same player (if you think that the best 3 seasons among the players left belong all to the same player, nothing is stopping you from using all you 3 choices on that player), but you can't continue voting for other seasons of that player once he wins and gets his spot. The final list will be 1 season per player.

Thank you for your participation!

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[penbeast0]

Old School to the end:

1. Walt Frazier 73 Led one of the most cohesive teams to a title despite losing Willis Reed for most of the year

2. Frazier 72 Not a championship but another great season followed by another great playoff run. Statistically a bit better than 73 though I think the championship puts 73 over it

3. Elgin Baylor 61 The last of the big 6 of the early 60s; one I don't rate as highly for career as the other 5 but Baylor's peak is pretty spectacular. (to quote Trex:)
Baylor '61 rs per 100 possession estimates: 31.1 pts, 17.75 reb, 4.55 ast @ +2.91% rTS. 28.2 PER, .227 WS/48 in 42.9 mpg
Baylor '61 playoff per 100 possession estimates: 32.5 pts, 13.1 reb, 3.9 ast @ +6.89% rTS (53.83% TS, which would be semi-respectable even by today's standards). 28.0 PER, .248 WS/48 in 45.0 mpg

[trex_8063]

It's Unibrow time people! Let's give this unique brow some love.....

1st ballot - '18 Anthony Davis
Excellent and versatile two-way player, statistical giant in both rs and playoffs, solid(ish) impact metrics. Had initially voted for '15 version, but pursuant to discussion beginning in post #9 of the 37th peak thread, have switched to '18 version of AD.


2nd ballot - '61 Elgin Baylor
To some degree the volume vs. efficiency considerations of Baylor (among others from this era) should be viewed with a bit of leniency, imo, as efficiency and "finding a good shot" just wasn't on anyone's radar in the early 1960's. And at any rate '61 Baylor was significantly above league avg efficiency (especially in the playoffs, where he shot a TS% that would be decent even by today's standards, despite lack of 3pt line, decent spacing, or restrictions on hand-checking). Any way you slice it, Baylor was an excellent (if not quite elite) scorer, and underrated playmaker for the SF position, as well as a GOAT-level rebounder for his position, and likely a better defender than some of the perimeter players voted in recently (e.g. Nash or Harden).

Baylor '61 rs per 100 possession estimates: 31.1 pts, 17.75 reb, 4.55 ast @ +2.91% rTS. 28.2 PER, .227 WS/48 in 42.9 mpg
Baylor '61 playoff per 100 possession estimates: 32.5 pts, 13.1 reb, 3.9 ast @ +6.89% rTS (53.83% TS, which would be semi-respectable even by today's standards). 28.0 PER, .248 WS/48 in 45.0 mpg

Some additional stuff about prime Baylor in general (copied from another thread), as far as it can be applied specifically to '61:

Spoiler:

Here's some more info regarding Baylor's impact, draw your own conclusions.....

In '58 (before Baylor), the Lakers were 19-53 (.264) with an SRS of -5.78.

In '59 they obtain rookie Elgin Baylor (and he's the only relevant transaction that occurred), and improve to 33-39 (.458) and -1.42 SRS (improvement of 14 wins and +4.36 SRS). They would also make it to the finals by first defeating a -1.36 SRS Detroit team 2-1, and then defeating the +2.89 SRS defending champ St. Louis Hawks 4-2.
wrt to how that improvement was managed......
Yeah, we always tend to think of Baylor as primarily an offensive player; but there's some to suggest he had a significant impact defensively, too. His reputation is mostly as a "decent" (but not great) defender, though I wonder if perhaps his prowess on the glass reduced a lot of easy second-chance opportunities for opponents (he was 3rd in the league in rebounds right off the bat in his rookie season).
Because in terms of rORTG, the Lakers in '58 (before Baylor) were -0.8 (ranked 6th of 8), and in rDRTG were +4.5 (8th of 8, and +2.5 to the 7th place team!). In '59, their rORTG improves to +0.6 (a jump of 1.4, up to 4th of 8); but rDRTG improves to +1.7 (a big jump of 2.8, from a distant last place to 6th of 8).
The team is 33-37 (.471) with him, 0-2 without him.


In '60, an aging Vern Mikkelsen has retired, aging Larry Foust misses some games and is playing a reduced role, too. Meanwhile the offensive primacy of the wildly inefficient (even for the era) Hot Rod Hundley increases, as well as a marginally increase in role for the even worse Slick Leonard (ridiculously bad 37.3% TS.....that's even -9% relative to league avg; similar to someone shooting 44% TS or so today; you'd have to be an elite defender to get ANY playing time at all today, and no way would you be getting 28+ mpg and be 6th on the team in FGA/g.....goes to show how efficiency just wasn't on the radar yet). And they also obtained rookie Rudy LaRusso (who would eventually become a pretty good player, but is a fairly inefficient scorer in his rookie season). They also obtained the somewhat inefficient Frank Selvy as well as an aging 6'11" Ray Felix in mid-season trades.
Anyway, their rORTG falls to -3.4 (8th of 8), though their defense continues to improve to +0.1 rDRTG (4th of 8), as they finish 25-50 (-4.14 SRS).
The team is 23-47 (.329) with him, 2-3 (.400) without him.


In '61, we have the arrival of rookie Jerry West. He's not yet the player he would become, but nonetheless is the clear 2nd-best behind Baylor. This affords them to reduce the role of Hundley and Leonard in the backcourt. rORTG improves to -1.3 (7th of 8), rDRTG continues to improve to -1.2 (4th of 8).
The team is 34-39 (.466) with Baylor, 2-4 (.333) without him.


In '62, West is now a legit superstar, too. Slick Leonard is gone, and Hundley's role is further diminished; LaRusso continues to improve and get more efficient. Non-surprisingly, the team rORTG improves to +1.4 (3rd of 9). Critics might argue Baylor missing games contributed to this improvement in rORTG, but I'm more inclined to think it's the additive effects of a) the improvements in West and LaRusso, b) the loss of Leonard, and c) the reduced role of Hundley; especially in light of the following.......
Baylor misses 32 games, not due to injury, but rather to military service: he's only able to play if he can get a weekend pass to quickly travel to the game, play, and then come back. So he likely barely gets to practice, and yet still establishes himself among the league's elite---->Per 100 possession estimates: 33.6 pts, 16.3 reb, 4.1 ast @ +1.34% rTS in a whopping 44.4 mpg.
The team is 37-11 (.771) with him, 17-15 (.531) without him. Some of his missed games may have overlapped with West's missed games, but the thing is: West only missed 5 games total that year. And NO ONE else in their main rotation missed more than 2 games all year.
They make it to the finals and take the Russell Celtics to 7 games. Baylor averages 40.6 ppg, 17.9 rpg, and 3.7 apg in the series @ 51.0% TS (+3.1 rTS). In a close game 5 victory, Baylor logs [what I think is still an NBA finals record] 61 pts (and I believe 22 reb as well).


Going back to our agreement that impact = goodness + fit + utilization......I don't think Baylor was utilized ideally (something that I think is unfortunately true for MANY old era players). Yet there's still several indicators of substantial impact circa his peak, especially in '62.

EDIT: I'd also add this quote from The Rivalry: Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and the Golden Age of Basketball by John Taylor....

.....Fans specifically came to see him [Baylor]. When he was on military duty and playing sporadically, they called the box office before games to ask if he would be appearing. The Lakers front office had run figures calculating Baylor’s ability to sell tickets, and they determined that in games when he did not play, the Lakers drew an average of 2,000 fewer fans. That amounted to approximately $6,000 per game, or $200,000 over the course of a season….

Correctly utilized, I think Baylor could be the best SF of the recent era not named Lebron or Kevin Durant:
1) a scorer capable of maybe 21-22 ppg at around 58% TS on a talent-laden team, or 27+ ppg on ~56% TS if shouldering bigger usage; basically a Carmelo level scorer....
2) but a better playmaker than Melo (very underrated aspect of Baylor's game)
3) a neutral [to maybe small positive??] level defender
4) and possibly the GOAT rebounding SF outside of Shawn Marion (roughly equal to peak Lebron in this regard).
To qualify this last, I'm going to bring up a [url=viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1412184#start_here]CavaliersFTW's thread[/url]:

Also note Baylor's reb/100 possession numbers in '61: 17.75.
Compare this to some other notables (mostly centers: including Wilt and Russell) in '61:
Wilt Chamberlain '61 - 20.7
Bill Russell '61 - 19.3
Walter Dukes '61 - 19.2
Bob Pettit '61 - 18.9
Wayne Embry '61 - 15.1
Bailey Howell '61 - 14.3
And here are a few other notables from shortly after '61:
Walt Bellamy '62 - 17.5
Jerry Lucas---renowned as one of the greatest rebounders or all-time---though not around in '61, in the mid-60's ('64-'67) averaged between 17.4 to 19.1 rebs/100 possessions
Gus Johnson only had one year with a reb/100 avg >17.75 (18.3 in '71; he otherwise ranged between 12.7 to 16.6)
Dave DeBusschere ranged between 11.8 to 14.3 rebs/100 possessions during his career.
BOTTOM LINE: Baylor's rebounding was no joke. He is elite in an all-time sense for his position.



3rd ballot - '99 Alonzo Mourning
I could see going so many ways with this pick. Walt Frazier, Connie Hawkins, Elton Brand, Kevin McHale.......these guys all look really good to me too.
But I'm going with Zo, who basically averaged 20/11 with 4 blocks this year (despite an utterly sluggish pace), good shooting efficiency, but somewhat poor turnover economy.
With a supporting cast (in descending order of minutes) consisting of late-prime [or arguably early post-prime??] Tim Hardaway, aging Dan Majerle, PJ Brown, old Terry Porter (would turn 36 before playoffs started), Clarence Weatherspoon, Jamal Mashburn [injury-hampered], and Rex Walters, he led them to a .660 win% (on pace for just over 54 wins in full season), a +5.11 SRS, and the #1 seed in the East. Alonzo Mourning had the league's best PI RAPM this year.

They [of historical significance] LOST to the #8 seed Knicks in the first round, though it can hardly be blamed on Mourning, who had a pretty good series while Hardaway, Majerle, and Mashburn were ALL abysmally bad in the series. It went to final game 5, which the Heat lost by a single point as Mourning had 21 pts on 57.1% TS, 5 reb, 1 stl, 3 blk, 0 turnovers.

While he did that on his own, Hardaway, Majerle, Porter, and Weatherspoon COMBINED had just:
21 pts @ 34.1% TS, 16 reb, 13 ast, 3 stl, 1 blk, 11 turnovers.

.....That's kind of a lot to overcome when a huge chunk of your principle supporting cast craps the bed like that (and did I mention they lost by a single point?).

[Clyde Frazier]

Shameless vote for my namesake to round out the project. Sorry I wasn't more active in the second half, but props to LA Bird for keeping it going!

Ballot #1 - 73 Clyde Frazier

He’s arguably the best perimeter defender of his generation, could run an offense well, yet was far from ball dominant in his overall play. He also proved his ability to step up in the playoffs over multiple finals / championship runs.

A quick note about frazier's defense: people tend to say "racking up steals doesn't mean you're a good defender", but that's typically referring to guys who gamble on D for the steal. Frazier rarely did that. He got his steals by playing the passing lanes, and uniquely knocking the ball out of the players' hands by tapping it from behind. His size at 6'4" allowed him to guard both positions, and he was quick enough to body up smaller guys and make it difficult for them.

The knicks featured an extremely balanced attack in the finals that year, but most importantly Clyde and Monroe figured out how to share the backcourt duties and ultimately win the championship. They had plenty of critics and doubters at the time when Monroe was traded to NY, assuming they'd butt heads. They proved them all wrong!

Ballot #2 - 72 Clyde Frazier

72 was Clyde's best combo of RS and PS play. Reed didn't play in the finals, so the knicks just had no match for wilt, who put up 19.4 PPG and 23.2 RPG on 60% from the field. West was actually held to 19.8 PPG on 32.5% from the field in the series (24.8 PPG on 47.7% FG in RS)! Clyde was certainly doing work in that series on both ends of the court.

RS: 23.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 5.8 APG, 57.6% TS (+7.2% vs. league avg), .223 WS/48

PS: 24.3 PPG, 7 RPG, 6.1 APG, 58.6% TS, .227 WS/48

Matching / exceeding his already stellar reg season play is very impressive.

Ballot #3 - 70 Clyde Frazier

First championship run and the classic game 7 carry job without Reed. Put up 17.6 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 10.4 APG on 54.1% from the field. Had a very good case for finals MVP, but narratives are a thing.

[LA Bird]

With only a few minutes to go until the final deadline, I suppose I will cast the last vote.

1. 1999 Alonzo Mourning

Spoiler:

I've been alluding to how great and underrated Zo is but I haven't made a full post on it yet. It's pretty odd that looking around you can find write ups either here or from blogs about other players. There's nothing on Zo. I mean articles from professionals from back in the day exist but for some reason I can't find any breakdowns on Zo which is a shame because his impact was tremendous and at his peak he was on the same level as young Duncan, arguably better than Malone who barely won MVP over him, and was comparable to Shaq at the time (who played no defense).

Offensively Zo had a basic post game, and a pretty reliable jumper out to 15 feet (it was shaky outside of that). That's basically all (of course he had the signature Georgetown running hook like Ewing did but it was meh). Most of his points were gained due to his immense physical advantages. His turnaround was money because of the speed of his spin, he got deep position easily with his strength and finished strong, and his faceup drives worked because he had a jumper you had to play while having one of the best first steps for any C ever (Dwight comes to mind as faster). Zo also wanted it, and he played like it. Got him to the line often and got him a decent amount of putbacks. He was undersized but I think that played to his advantage more especially in the post Shaq era. He was in a league environment where teams kept a big plodder on the floor or on the roster and when matched up with one he was unstoppable. He didn't even need his jumper against some of the bigger guys in league history.

Watch on YouTube

His handles weren't great, he wasn't a great mover laterally, he didn't have spin moves or a strong drop step, but he still managed to be a 19-23 ppg scorer on between +5-7 rTS% each of the first 8 years of his career and a 20 ppg on 55 TS% guy in the playoffs.

He didn't pass well at all but Miami in both 98 and 99 had a +2.5ish offense. They had a +2.4 offense in 98 against NY and a +0.9 in 99 against them (that's slight underrated because NY's defense came alive in the playoffs). All in all Zo wasn't great but he was definitely a good enough first option to give you a top 10 offense that would hold in the playoffs against some tough ass squads in tough ass series (arguably the toughest series' ever) if he was the centerpiece with a very good PG and decent third scorer (Tim and Mash).

Overall he averaged 20.1/11.0/1.6 with 3.9 bpg on +5.3 rTS% with a 107 ORTG in the regular season and 21.6/8.2/0.8 with 2.8 blocks and 1.6 steals per game on 57.1 TS% (+8.3 rTS%) with a 106 ORTG (+8 rORTG).

Defensively he's on the shortlist of the GOATs. He was DPOY back to back in 99 and 2000 and watching him it's obvious why. He was someone that chased shots but didn't seem to foul because his jump speed was so fast. Next to Bill Russell he's the most effective shot blocker ever. One thing I always noticed watching Zo is he kept the ball inbounds. If his back was to the basket he went straight up and only flicked his wrist. If he was behind the play he pinned it on the backboard. Either way he always found a way to keep it in play and I'm taking him as the best rim protector ever next to Deke. In this clip you can see exactly how fast he gets off the floor and how effortless it is for him.

Watch on YouTube

His only weakness was his lack of height. Unlike Ben Wallace who seemed to be able to overcome his height issues Zo was not a great man defender at all. Usually this isn't an issue but Zo played at the same time as numbers 4, 9, 18, and 23 on this list. The 4 guys with the highest single season PPG totals for any true C outside of Wilt and Kareem. In these clips you can see how Shaq dominates him at both player's arguable peaks.

Watch on YouTube

Hakeem (who was also undersized - he was listed at 7 feet but is barely taller than Dwight Howard who is 6-9 barefoot and 6-10 in sneakers) is the only one of those centers Zo played well and that's because with his speed and power he was the perfect counter to him. I'd argue no one ever played Hakeem as well as Zo did in the few times I've seen a game featuring the two. Overall he's a 10/10 rim defender, 10/10 help defender, and maybe a 7/10 man defender that still led -4 to -6 defenses at his best.

As far as the season goes it was a lockout but Miami won 33 of the 50 games, going 1-3 without Zo, and lost in a major first round upset to the eventual NBA Finalists while they still had their best player (because Ewing got hurt and they still made the Finals without him). I think that result is why this year is overlooked because Zo played amazing in that series while his team collapsed.

Zo averaged 21.6 ppg on 57.1 TS% like mentioned before but his team? Outside of him they scored 57.4 ppg on 47 TS%. Tim Hardaway went from averaging 17.4 ppg and 7.2 apg on 51.1 TS% with a 13.8 TOV% and 105 ORTG to 9.0 ppg and 6.4 apg on 35.7 TS% with a 22.2 TOV% and 74 ORTG in the series against NY. Without Zo dominating NY sweeps them instead of needing a lucky bounce on an H20 floater to win.

As far as his impact goes I'm not going to dig for the raw +/- numbers (screw NBA.com for ever taking them down) but Zo led the league in RAPM and his yearly finishes from 97 to 99 are:

97 - 7 (this is NPI)
98 - 2 (3rd in NPI)
99 - 1 (2nd in NPI)

TL;DR: Impact stats paint him as the impactful player of that 3 year stretch.

Basically we have it all here, just not the reputation, and that's something recent because in 99 he was runner up to MVP and in 2000 he was 3rd in MVP voting to Shaq and KG. The numbers hold up, the playoff performance holds up, the team strength success holds up (not in 99 specifically but form 97-00), the impact holds up. If it wasn't for his game being limited compared to the other star Cs of his time and him losing head to head matchups against all of them constantly (besides Hakeem) he'd be seen as on their level pretty clearly. As it is he's a half step behind them as the next best great true C if you ask me.

EDIT: And I forgot to mention Zo's impact as a leader. I'm not the biggest intangibles guy unless it bleeds on the floor and boy did it when Zo was out there. He's one of the toughest players ever (he would fight you if he needed to as JVG found out in 98), one of the most well respected players ever (so respected people forget what he did to the Raps to get back to Miami and just like him going back to Miami), and one of the players that played hardest in league history. If I made a short list of players with the most contagious energy in the floor Zo would probably be right under Magic, KG, and Westbrook as far as guys worthy of this list go. He always seemed to lead through big plays, big celebrations, and a crowd/team that exploded when he was ready for them to. I think it's a big part of why that Heat team was so successful and of course we all know while Wade was the best player on the 06 Heat and Zo didn't even start he was the soul of the team turning around each game when he hit the floor.

2. 2016 Draymond Green

Spoiler:

Draymond's versatility, defense and passing is among the best the league and despite being a horrible shooter over his career, he shot an outlier 38% from 3 in the 2016 season. His impact numbers consistently rate among the top in the league, and in 2016 specifically, he put up probably the best +/- numbers of all time - a +18.5 on court net and +26.3 on/off net. Critics often rush to discredit Draymond as a role player leeching off Curry's impact but his -12.7 defensive on/off is the best of any starter over the last 25+ years I believe and Curry has little to do with those numbers. His 5 year playoffs DRAPM is #1 in the league by a large margin and he has led Golden State to one of the best 5 year postseason defenses of all time. Offensively, Draymond still averaged 15.7 points, 8.8 assists, 56.1% TS on only 2.7 turnovers per 36 without Curry. He is not a scorer but individual volume scoring from bigs like a Jermaine O'Neal has rarely yielded much offensive impact for a team anyway. The Warriors were an elite +10 net in the regular season and +14 in the postseason with Draymond and no Curry and he was the best Warriors in the Finals which they came close to winning.

And in case this term comes up later, I don't think Draymond is a "system player" at all. If Draymond is so easily replaceable within this Warriors' system, why does the team suffer a massive dropoff without him? How many PF/C has a comparable skillset and can space the floor with 38% 3pt shooting, push the ball in transition, run the offense in the half court and also defend at even half the level he does? Draymond is not a system player because without him, there is no Warriors small ball lineup. Any team can put a undersized guy at center but it is Draymond's unique versatility on defense that allows the Warriors' defense to not get burned when they do go small. His playmaking ability would get marginalized on a team with a more ball dominant point guard but there are not many who are better playmakers than Draymond and portability is also an issue for most high volume superstars. Draymond is not a #1 or #2 scoring option but he has proved to be an essential piece on both ends of the floor to an all time team over a multi-year period. And FWIW, despite his box score numbers paling in comparison to his +/- numbers, 2016 Draymond's WS/48 (0.190) was still comparable to superstars like 60 Pettit (0.191) and 75 Barry (0.188).

3. 1961 Elgin Baylor

Spoiler:

To some degree the volume vs. efficiency considerations of Baylor (among others from this era) should be viewed with a bit of leniency, imo, as efficiency and "finding a good shot" just wasn't on anyone's radar in the early 1960's. And at any rate '61 Baylor was significantly above league avg efficiency (especially in the playoffs, where he shot a TS% that would be decent even by today's standards, despite lack of 3pt line, decent spacing, or restrictions on hand-checking). Any way you slice it, Baylor was an excellent (if not quite elite) scorer, and underrated playmaker for the SF position, as well as a GOAT-level rebounder for his position, and likely a better defender than some of the perimeter players voted in recently (e.g. Nash or Harden).

Baylor '61 rs per 100 possession estimates: 31.1 pts, 17.75 reb, 4.55 ast @ +2.91% rTS. 28.2 PER, .227 WS/48 in 42.9 mpg
Baylor '61 playoff per 100 possession estimates: 32.5 pts, 13.1 reb, 3.9 ast @ +6.89% rTS (53.83% TS, which would be semi-respectable even by today's standards). 28.0 PER, .248 WS/48 in 45.0 mpg

Some additional stuff about prime Baylor in general (copied from another thread), as far as it can be applied specifically to '61:
Here's some more info regarding Baylor's impact, draw your own conclusions.....

In '58 (before Baylor), the Lakers were 19-53 (.264) with an SRS of -5.78.

In '59 they obtain rookie Elgin Baylor (and he's the only relevant transaction that occurred), and improve to 33-39 (.458) and -1.42 SRS (improvement of 14 wins and +4.36 SRS). They would also make it to the finals by first defeating a -1.36 SRS Detroit team 2-1, and then defeating the +2.89 SRS defending champ St. Louis Hawks 4-2.
wrt to how that improvement was managed......
Yeah, we always tend to think of Baylor as primarily an offensive player; but there's some to suggest he had a significant impact defensively, too. His reputation is mostly as a "decent" (but not great) defender, though I wonder if perhaps his prowess on the glass reduced a lot of easy second-chance opportunities for opponents (he was 3rd in the league in rebounds right off the bat in his rookie season).
Because in terms of rORTG, the Lakers in '58 (before Baylor) were -0.8 (ranked 6th of 8), and in rDRTG were +4.5 (8th of 8, and +2.5 to the 7th place team!). In '59, their rORTG improves to +0.6 (a jump of 1.4, up to 4th of 8); but rDRTG improves to +1.7 (a big jump of 2.8, from a distant last place to 6th of 8).
The team is 33-37 (.471) with him, 0-2 without him.


In '60, an aging Vern Mikkelsen has retired, aging Larry Foust misses some games and is playing a reduced role, too. Meanwhile the offensive primacy of the wildly inefficient (even for the era) Hot Rod Hundley increases, as well as a marginally increase in role for the even worse Slick Leonard (ridiculously bad 37.3% TS.....that's even -9% relative to league avg; similar to someone shooting 44% TS or so today; you'd have to be an elite defender to get ANY playing time at all today, and no way would you be getting 28+ mpg and be 6th on the team in FGA/g.....goes to show how efficiency just wasn't on the radar yet). And they also obtained rookie Rudy LaRusso (who would eventually become a pretty good player, but is a fairly inefficient scorer in his rookie season). They also obtained the somewhat inefficient Frank Selvy as well as an aging 6'11" Ray Felix in mid-season trades.
Anyway, their rORTG falls to -3.4 (8th of 8), though their defense continues to improve to +0.1 rDRTG (4th of 8), as they finish 25-50 (-4.14 SRS).
The team is 23-47 (.329) with him, 2-3 (.400) without him.


In '61, we have the arrival of rookie Jerry West. He's not yet the player he would become, but nonetheless is the clear 2nd-best behind Baylor. This affords them to reduce the role of Hundley and Leonard in the backcourt. rORTG improves to -1.3 (7th of 8), rDRTG continues to improve to -1.2 (4th of 8).
The team is 34-39 (.466) with Baylor, 2-4 (.333) without him.


In '62, West is now a legit superstar, too. Slick Leonard is gone, and Hundley's role is further diminished; LaRusso continues to improve and get more efficient. Non-surprisingly, the team rORTG improves to +1.4 (3rd of 9). Critics might argue Baylor missing games contributed to this improvement in rORTG, but I'm more inclined to think it's the additive effects of a) the improvements in West and LaRusso, b) the loss of Leonard, and c) the reduced role of Hundley; especially in light of the following.......
Baylor misses 32 games, not due to injury, but rather to military service: he's only able to play if he can get a weekend pass to quickly travel to the game, play, and then come back. So he likely barely gets to practice, and yet still establishes himself among the league's elite---->Per 100 possession estimates: 33.6 pts, 16.3 reb, 4.1 ast @ +1.34% rTS in a whopping 44.4 mpg.
The team is 37-11 (.771) with him, 17-15 (.531) without him. Some of his missed games may have overlapped with West's missed games, but the thing is: West only missed 5 games total that year. And NO ONE else in their main rotation missed more than 2 games all year.
They make it to the finals and take the Russell Celtics to 7 games. Baylor averages 40.6 ppg, 17.9 rpg, and 3.7 apg in the series @ 51.0% TS (+3.1 rTS). In a close game 5 victory, Baylor logs [what I think is still an NBA finals record] 61 pts (and I believe 22 reb as well).


Going back to our agreement that impact = goodness + fit + utilization......I don't think Baylor was utilized ideally (something that I think is unfortunately true for MANY old era players). Yet there's still several indicators of substantial impact circa his peak, especially in '62.

EDIT: I'd also add this quote from The Rivalry: Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and the Golden Age of Basketball by John Taylor....

.....Fans specifically came to see him [Baylor]. When he was on military duty and playing sporadically, they called the box office before games to ask if he would be appearing. The Lakers front office had run figures calculating Baylor’s ability to sell tickets, and they determined that in games when he did not play, the Lakers drew an average of 2,000 fewer fans. That amounted to approximately $6,000 per game, or $200,000 over the course of a season….

Correctly utilized, I think Baylor could be the best SF of the recent era not named Lebron or Kevin Durant:
1) a scorer capable of maybe 21-22 ppg at around 58% TS on a talent-laden team, or 27+ ppg on ~56% TS if shouldering bigger usage; basically a Carmelo level scorer....
2) but a better playmaker than Melo (very underrated aspect of Baylor's game)
3) a neutral [to maybe small positive??] level defender
4) and possibly the GOAT rebounding SF outside of Shawn Marion (roughly equal to peak Lebron in this regard).
To qualify this last, I'm going to bring up a [url=viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1412184#start_here]CavaliersFTW's thread[/url]:

Also note Baylor's reb/100 possession numbers in '61: 17.75.
Compare this to some other notables (mostly centers: including Wilt and Russell) in '61:
Wilt Chamberlain '61 - 20.7
Bill Russell '61 - 19.3
Walter Dukes '61 - 19.2
Bob Pettit '61 - 18.9
Wayne Embry '61 - 15.1
Bailey Howell '61 - 14.3
And here are a few other notables from shortly after '61:
Walt Bellamy '62 - 17.5
Jerry Lucas---renowned as one of the greatest rebounders or all-time---though not around in '61, in the mid-60's ('64-'67) averaged between 17.4 to 19.1 rebs/100 possessions
Gus Johnson only had one year with a reb/100 avg >17.75 (18.3 in '71; he otherwise ranged between 12.7 to 16.6)
Dave DeBusschere ranged between 11.8 to 14.3 rebs/100 possessions during his career.
BOTTOM LINE: Baylor's rebounding was no joke. He is elite in an all-time sense for his position.

Spoiler:

Barring a surprise voter in the last minute, the results of the final round of the peak project are:

1) 73 Frazier = 9.0 points
2) 61 Baylor = 7.0 points
3) 99 Mourning = 6.5 points
4) 72 Frazier = 6.0 points
5) 18 Davis = 4.5 points

73 Frazier wins.

[Odinn21]

1. 1972 Walt Frazier
In absence of Willis Reed, even though he didn't lead the Knicks to a particular success in regular season despite his monstrous performance, he led his team to unexpected NBA Finals appearance.

2. 1973 Walt Frazier
More team success with slightly lesser individual performance compared to his 1972 self.

3. 1962 Elgin Baylor
When Russell, Chamberlain, West and Robertson are already in there, it feels like we're underrating Elgin Baylor big time.
I know number of missed games is very important. I find it very important myself. But I don't see any reason to pick another season over 1962.
In 1961, the Lakers won 36 games with negative SRS value despite making it to the Western divison finals. Baylor had a regular season of 34.8/19.8/5.1. Then 39.4/14.8 in the div. semifinals and 37.1/15.6 in the div. finals.
In 1962, Elgin Baylor missed 32 games. Pretty big number. But the Lakers won 37 of 48 games Baylor played in. Despite missing 30+ games, Baylor also managed to won more games than the previous season. The Lakers were 37-11 with him and 17-15 without him. And he had a season of 38.3/18.6/4.6. With improved record, the Lakers skipped the div. semifinals. In the div. finals Baylor got 36.3/17.5 and in the NBA Finals he got 40.6/17.9.

[LA Bird]

A last second vote just before the deadline but the result remains the same.

1) 73 Frazier = 12.0 points
2) 72 Frazier = 10.5 points
3) 61 Baylor = 7.0 points
4) 99 Mourning = 6.5 points
5) 18 Davis = 4.5 points

73 Frazier wins the last round of the 2019 peaks project.

Thanks to everybody who participated in the project.

[LA Bird]

Here is some comparison between the 2019 peaks project and the previous 2015 peaks project.

2019 list

Spoiler:

1) Michael Jordan 1990-91
2) LeBron James 2012-13
3) Wilt Chamberlain 1966-67
4) Shaquille O'Neal 1999-00
5) Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 1976-77
6) Tim Duncan 2002-03
7) Larry Bird 1985-86
8) Bill Russell 1963-64
9) Hakeem Olajuwon 1993-94
10) Magic Johnson 1986-87
11) Kevin Garnett 2003-04
12) Julius Erving 1975-76
13) Bill Walton 1976-77
14) Oscar Robertson 1963-64
15) Stephen Curry 2015-16
16) Dwyane Wade 2008-09
17) Jerry West 1965-66
18) David Robinson 1994-95
19) Dirk Nowitzki 2010-11
20) Kobe Bryant 2007-08
21) Tracy McGrady 2002-03
22) Moses Malone 1982-83
23) Patrick Ewing 1989-90
24) Kevin Durant 2013-14
25) Russell Westbrook 2016-17
26) Charles Barkley 1992-93
27) Kawhi Leonard 2018-19
28) Chris Paul 2007-08
29) George Mikan 1948-49
30) Steve Nash 2004-05
31) Giannis Antetokounmpo 2018-19
32) Karl Malone 1996-97
33) Dwight Howard 2010-11
34) Artis Gilmore 1974-75
35) James Harden 2018-19
36) Willis Reed 1968-69
37) Rick Barry 1974-75
38) Bob McAdoo 1974-75
39) Bob Pettit 1958-59
40) Walt Frazier 1972-73

2015 list

Spoiler:

1. Michael Jordan ('91---unanimous)
2. Shaquille O'Neal ('00---unanimous)
3. Lebron James ('13---non-unanimous ('09, '12))
4. Wilt Chamberlain ('67---non-unanimous ('64))
5. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar ('77---non-unanimous ('71, '72))
6. Hakeem Olajuwon ('94---non-unanimous ('93))
7. Tim Duncan ('03---non-unanimous ('02))
8. Kevin Garnett ('04---unanimous)
9. Bill Russell ('65---non-unanimous ('62, '64))
10. Magic Johnson ('87---unanimous)
11. Larry Bird ('86---non-unanimous ('87, '88))
12. David Robinson ('95---non-unanimous ('94, '96))
13. Bill Walton ('77---unanimous)
14. Julius Erving ('76---unanimous)
15. Oscar Robertson ('64---non-unanimous ('63))
16. Dwyane Wade ('09---non-unanimous ('06, '10))
17. Stephen Curry ('15---unanimous)
18. Dirk Nowitzki ('11---non-unanimous ('06, '09))
19. Jerry West ('66---non-unanimous ('68, '69))
20. Kevin Durant ('14---unanimous)
21. Patrick Ewing ('90---unanimous)
22. Tracy McGrady ('03---unanimous)
23. Kobe Bryant ('08---non-unanimous ('06, '09))
24. Charles Barkley ('90---non-unanimous ('93))
25. Moses Malone ('83---unanimous)
26. Chris Paul ('08---non-unanimous ('15))
27. Karl Malone ('97---non-unanimous ('92/'95/'98))
28. Steve Nash ('07---non-unanimous ('05))
29. Anthony Davis ('15---unanimous)
30. Dwight Howard ('11---non-unanimous ('09))
31. Alonzo Mourning ('00---unanimous)
32. Walt Frazier ('72---non-unanimous ('70, '71))
33. James Harden ('15---unanimous)
34. Artis Gilmore ('75---unanimous)
35. Elgin Baylor ('61---unanimous)
36. Bob Pettit ('63---non-unanimous ('61))
37. Bob Lanier ('74---unanimous)
38. Kevin McHale ('87---non-unanimous ('86))
39. Willis Reed ('69---non-unanimous ('70))
40. Bob McAdoo ('75---unanimous)

Players who ranked higher in the 2019 list
86 Bird (+4)
08 Bryant (+3)
83 Malone (+3)
69 Reed (+3)
76 Erving (+2)
16 Curry (+2, previously 15 season)
66 West (+2)
75 McAdoo (+2)
67 Chamberlain (+1)
13 James (+1)
03 Duncan (+1)
64 Russell (+1, previously 65 season)
64 Robertson (+1)
03 McGrady (+1)

Players whose rank didn't change
91 Jordan (0)
77 Abdul-Jabbar (0)
87 Magic (0)
77 Walton (0)
09 Wade (0)
75 Gilmore (0)

Players who ranked lower in the 2019 list
73 Frazier (-8, previously 72 season)
95 Robinson (-6)
97 Malone (-5)
14 Durant (-4)
94 Olajuwon (-3)
04 Garnett (-3)
11 Howard (-3)
59 Pettit (-3, previously 63 season)
00 O'Neal (-2)
90 Ewing (-2)
93 Barkley (-2, previously 90 season)
08 Paul (-2)
05 Nash (-2)
19 Harden (-2, previously 15 season)
11 Nowitzki (-1)

Players in the 2019 list but not the 2015 list
17 Westbrook (rank 25)
19 Leonard (rank 27)
49 Mikan (rank 29)
19 Antetokounmpo (rank 31)
75 Barry (rank 37)

Players in the 2015 list but not the 2019 list
15 Davis (previously rank 29)
00 Mourning (previously rank 31)
61 Baylor (previously rank 35)
74 Lanier (previously rank 37)
87 McHale (previously rank 38)

[Odinn21]

Players who ranked higher in the 2019 list
86 Bird (+4)
08 Bryant (+3)
83 Malone (+3)
69 Reed (+3)
76 Erving (+2)
16 Curry (+2, previously 15 season)
66 West (+2)
75 McAdoo (+2)
67 Chamberlain (+1)
13 James (+1)
03 Duncan (+1)
64 Russell (+1, previously 65 season)
64 Robertson (+1)
03 McGrady (+1)

Players whose rank didn't change
91 Jordan (0)
77 Abdul-Jabbar (0)
87 Magic (0)
77 Walton (0)
09 Wade (0)
75 Gilmore (0)

Players who ranked lower in the 2019 list
73 Frazier (-8, previously 72 season)
95 Robinson (-6)
97 Malone (-5)
14 Durant (-4)
94 Olajuwon (-3)
04 Garnett (-3)
11 Howard (-3)
59 Pettit (-3, previously 63 season)
00 O'Neal (-2)
90 Ewing (-2)
93 Barkley (-2, previously 90 season)
08 Paul (-2)
05 Nash (-2)
19 Harden (-2, previously 15 season)
11 Nowitzki (-1)

Players in the 2019 list but not the 2015 list
17 Westbrook (rank 25)
19 Leonard (rank 27)
49 Mikan (rank 29)
19 Antetokounmpo (rank 31)
75 Barry (rank 37)

Players in the 2015 list but not the 2019 list
15 Davis (previously rank 29)
00 Mourning (previously rank 31)
61 Baylor (previously rank 35)
74 Lanier (previously rank 37)
87 McHale (previously rank 38)

Sometimes I read some threads of the previous project and I love how far we've gotten in terms of evaluation process.

The previous project was much more reliant on box score numbers. That's why Robinson lost 6 spots on the list.

As for gained and lost spots, the most I like about the latest list is that Bird is ahead of Magic and he's in the top 10. Surely there are many things I disagree with both versions. But this was the most important one for me.
Hakeem losing 3 spots and still being in the top 10 shows how competitive the top 10 is. And TBH, in a league of their own.

One final thing, I think you should bump the starting post of the project with these infos.

[Vladimir777]

Great job on this project, guys! I wish I could've participated, but I just thought that I might skew the results, since I ultimately am not as knowledgeable as the people voting. I wanted the results to be accurate.

I will try to learn up on some basketball and specifically stats (since that seems to be what most people using in their argumentation) so that I can vote in another two years or so.

I was pretty happy with the results. I loved seeing the great Wilt at #3, as often I feel he gets a bit neglected on these boards, as well as Kareem in the top 5 and Duncan at #6. I do feel that maybe McGrady was a bit high and Harden a bit low, but otherwise everything looked good to me.

[euroleague]

Great job on this project, guys! I wish I could've participated, but I just thought that I might skew the results, since I ultimately am not as knowledgeable as the people voting. I wanted the results to be accurate.

I will try to learn up on some basketball and specifically stats (since that seems to be what most people using in their argumentation) so that I can vote in another two years or so.

I was pretty happy with the results. I loved seeing the great Wilt at #3, as often I feel he gets a bit neglected on these boards, as well as Kareem in the top 5 and Duncan at #6. I do feel that maybe McGrady was a bit high and Harden a bit low, but otherwise everything looked good to me.

If you've watched a lot of games, you should participate. Stats are a great metric for measuring players we don't have complete info on, but ultimately watching the game is the best measure.

Disappointed Gervin didn't make it in, he seems to be a bit underrated generally. Surprised at Artis Gilmore making it in. although WB did have an amazing season, his shortened post-season leaves a bit to be desired; that ranking is higher than most have it...

Wade and TMAC seem high, but I guess that's do to them being so recent. Nash and Dwight seem a bit high as well.

Rick Barry seems low - I don't know why he's below Kawhi 19, as Barry carried his team harder and had so much more playing time in the season. Mikan seems low - his peak was arguably the most dominant ever, although I can see an argument for not including the segregation era. Barkley seems a bit low.

Top 10 has all the right people, which is nice...excepting maybe Dr J. Move Wilt up 2 spots, Shaq and Larry Bird up one spot, and that would be almost spot on.

[penbeast0]

Players who ranked higher in the 2019 list
86 Bird (+4)
08 Bryant (+3)
83 Malone (+3)
69 Reed (+3)
76 Erving (+2)
16 Curry (+2, previously 15 season)
66 West (+2)
75 McAdoo (+2)
67 Chamberlain (+1)
13 James (+1)
03 Duncan (+1)
64 Russell (+1, previously 65 season)
64 Robertson (+1)
03 McGrady (+1)

Players whose rank didn't change
91 Jordan (0)
77 Abdul-Jabbar (0)
87 Magic (0)
77 Walton (0)
09 Wade (0)
75 Gilmore (0)

Players who ranked lower in the 2019 list
73 Frazier (-8, previously 72 season)
95 Robinson (-6)
97 Malone (-5)
14 Durant (-4)
94 Olajuwon (-3)
04 Garnett (-3)
11 Howard (-3)
59 Pettit (-3, previously 63 season)
00 O'Neal (-2)
90 Ewing (-2)
93 Barkley (-2, previously 90 season)
08 Paul (-2)
05 Nash (-2)
19 Harden (-2, previously 15 season)
11 Nowitzki (-1)

Players in the 2019 list but not the 2015 list
17 Westbrook (rank 25)
19 Leonard (rank 27)
49 Mikan (rank 29)
19 Antetokounmpo (rank 31)
75 Barry (rank 37)

Players in the 2015 list but not the 2019 list
15 Davis (previously rank 29)
00 Mourning (previously rank 31)
61 Baylor (previously rank 35)
74 Lanier (previously rank 37)
87 McHale (previously rank 38)

Sometimes I read some threads of the previous project and I love how far we've gotten in terms of evaluation process.

The previous project was much more reliant on box score numbers. That's why Robinson lost 6 spots on the list.

As for gained and lost spots, the most I like about the latest list is that Bird is ahead of Magic and he's in the top 10. Surely there are many things I disagree with both versions. But this was the most important one for me.
Hakeem losing 3 spots and still being in the top 10 shows how competitive the top 10 is. And TBH, in a league of their own.

One final thing, I think you should bump the starting post of the project with these infos.

This thread is stickied in the PC BOARD PROJECTS thread with other projects we have done (at least the recent ones). You should be able to find what you are looking for there.

[Vladimir777]

Great job on this project, guys! I wish I could've participated, but I just thought that I might skew the results, since I ultimately am not as knowledgeable as the people voting. I wanted the results to be accurate.

I will try to learn up on some basketball and specifically stats (since that seems to be what most people using in their argumentation) so that I can vote in another two years or so.

I was pretty happy with the results. I loved seeing the great Wilt at #3, as often I feel he gets a bit neglected on these boards, as well as Kareem in the top 5 and Duncan at #6. I do feel that maybe McGrady was a bit high and Harden a bit low, but otherwise everything looked good to me.

If you've watched a lot of games, you should participate. Stats are a great metric for measuring players we don't have complete info on, but ultimately watching the game is the best measure.

Disappointed Gervin didn't make it in, he seems to be a bit underrated generally. Surprised at Artis Gilmore making it in. although WB did have an amazing season, his shortened post-season leaves a bit to be desired; that ranking is higher than most have it...

Wade and TMAC seem high, but I guess that's do to them being so recent. Nash and Dwight seem a bit high as well.

Rick Barry seems low - I don't know why he's below Kawhi 19, as Barry carried his team harder and had so much more playing time in the season. Mikan seems low - his peak was arguably the most dominant ever, although I can see an argument for not including the segregation era. Barkley seems a bit low.

Top 10 has all the right people, which is nice...excepting maybe Dr J. Move Wilt up 2 spots, Shaq and Larry Bird up one spot, and that would be almost spot on.

Thanks for the invitation. I definitely haven't watched a lot of these older players, just highlights and the like, but hopefully I will have by the time the next tournament comes around. Would love to participate.

Yeah, I remember reading a ton about the Iceman growing up, so it was surprising guys like him didn't make it in. And TMac seems very high up to me. Also Dwight.

Agreed 1000% on Mikan. I thought he was quite disrespected in this list.

[Odinn21]

For some reason I felt the need to come back to see the latest result and I'm baffled with something.
3 voters from 1974-75 season got voted in. Actually in a matter of 5 spots. And the rankings is;
34. Artis Gilmore
37. Rick Barry
38. Bob McAdoo
I feel like this is not the accurate way to rank these 3. Not seeing much of a case for Gilmore to be better than the lower ranked two. What do you guys say?

[70sFan]

For some reason I felt the need to come back to see the latest result and I'm baffled with something.
3 voters from 1974-75 season got voted in. Actually in a matter of 5 spots. And the rankings is;
34. Artis Gilmore
37. Rick Barry
38. Bob McAdoo
I feel like this is not the accurate way to rank these 3. Not seeing much of a case for Gilmore to be better than the lower ranked two. What do you guys say?

Why? Gilmore was legit ATG defender, far better than either of them. He was also very good offensive player, proved to be capable of being first option on elite championship team. He's also portable because he's not ball-dominant. Not to mention his elite rebounding.

You can disagree about the order but "not much of a case" for Gilmore being first?

[penbeast0]

For some reason I felt the need to come back to see the latest result and I'm baffled with something.
3 voters from 1974-75 season got voted in. Actually in a matter of 5 spots. And the rankings is;
34. Artis Gilmore
37. Rick Barry
38. Bob McAdoo
I feel like this is not the accurate way to rank these 3. Not seeing much of a case for Gilmore to be better than the lower ranked two. What do you guys say?

Why? Gilmore was legit ATG defender, far better than either of them. He was also very good offensive player, proved to be capable of being first option on elite championship team. He's also portable because he's not ball-dominant. Not to mention his elite rebounding.

You can disagree about the order but "not much of a case" for Gilmore being first?

I tend to agree with 70sFan. Barry's playoff run was magnificent but Gilmore's was pretty strong as well. It was the first, really the only year, where Gilmore put the team on his shoulders offensively as Herbie Brown basically relegated traditional 1st optino Dan Issel to a kick out jump shooter while everything worked through Gilmore in the post. And it worked, bringing Kentucky its only title.

[ardee]

Well I got lazy with this toward the end so I have no room to complain but it's quite surprising AD didn't make the list. Hard for me to consider 2018 AD much worse than Karl Malone... also definitely better than Dwight.

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