Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor)

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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#761 » by Ryoga Hibiki » Tue Feb 23, 2021 2:25 pm

zimpy27 wrote:Well, what years would you highlight for Dirks peak?

Note that there was no Big O, no Malone, no Dr J, no West. Also great players but perhaps no stand out peak. Walton got a nod but he isn't in many top 30 player lists.

West and Oscar are not in scope.
And I am definitely taking 2006/2008 or 2009/2011 over the K.Malone and Barkley. Dr.J and Moses a bit less sure, also because were before my time, but I would still go for Dirk. My issue is, having winessed all their careers, you can't have Robinson+Kobe+Garnett in and no Dirk.
Especially following his logic, why Kobe but not Dirk?
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#762 » by Ryoga Hibiki » Tue Feb 23, 2021 2:41 pm

Odinn21 wrote:
Ryoga Hibiki wrote:Comments on the Duncan Video:
- I always perceive him wanting to say Garnett is better but somehow he doesn't want to make such a statement so directly. That's why he keeps adding some subtle comments here and there to suggest that

I'll be pretty blunt about this, his bias towards Garnett always has been there and the reason I don't like Duncan's episode even though it has many good qualities.

I understand where both ElGee and drza are going when they are rating so high Garnett while having some reserves on Timmeh, but in my view they are going way to far with it.
Both Garnett and Duncan are in the category "first tier on D, second tier on O", as none of the two is an optimal offensive player.
And then they get to the level that Garnett's skill are amazing as a glue guy, so you can put him next to another iso player and shooters and he's going to absolutely supercharge that offence, moreso than Timmeh. More range, better passer, better at moving the ball while still providing secondary scoring. I have no problem saying that in the team like 08/10 Boston Garnett was a better fit.
But, and this ElGee sometimes addresses it, Timmeh was clearly better if asked to be the primary engine. And, very important, he showed that he was good enough to be the primary offensive engine for a championship team (while still scaling back in later years as Parker and Manu partially took over). Yes, that stile has a ceiling, but how should we address it once we see that such ceiling is high enough for the purpose of winning a championship?
That means, combined with their similar defensive impact, that there are more combinations of Duncan teams than Garnett teams that are good enough to get there, even if arguably the Garnett teams can potentially peak higher, because those super talented teams are very difficult to build when you have already a supermax player on the roster as those real offensively great #1 never come cheap.

I would add that I think Timmeh was a better leader, but on my side this is some serious speculation as I never was in those locker rooms...
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#763 » by Odinn21 » Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:26 pm

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:
Odinn21 wrote:
Ryoga Hibiki wrote:Comments on the Duncan Video:
- I always perceive him wanting to say Garnett is better but somehow he doesn't want to make such a statement so directly. That's why he keeps adding some subtle comments here and there to suggest that

I'll be pretty blunt about this, his bias towards Garnett always has been there and the reason I don't like Duncan's episode even though it has many good qualities.

I understand where both ElGee and drza are going when they are rating so high Garnett while having some reserves on Timmeh, but in my view they are going way to far with it.

Yeah, I agree.

Both Garnett and Duncan are in the category "first tier on D, second tier on O", as none of the two is an optimal offensive player.
And then they get to the level that Garnett's skill are amazing as a glue guy, so you can put him next to another iso player and shooters and he's going to absolutely supercharge that offence, moreso than Timmeh. More range, better passer, better at moving the ball while still providing secondary scoring. I have no problem saying that in the team like 08/10 Boston Garnett was a better fit.

Having such team is a big luxury to begin with, especially in the salary cap era. This goes against their portability approach. If Garnett needs that much fluidity on offense to be better than Duncan while he can not reach that level without that type of offensive help, then he's not the better player.

Also, ElGee or drza do not look at the Spurs in the mid '00s when Duncan didn't experience a health issue. That team was still Duncan centric but did not rely on him like they did in 2002 and 2003.
Here;
2005; Duncan had a sprained ankle in mid March '05. Before that the injury, the Spurs were 6th in ORtg with +3.0 relative value. +5.7 rORtg w/ Duncan and -2.6 rORtg w/o Duncan.
Duncan's minutes were lower because the team could afford to play him less. If we look at his per 100 numbers though;
33.3 pts 18.2 reb 4.4 ast 1.1 stl 4.3 blk 3.2 tov
Those pts (only '02 better) and reb (only '04 better) numbers would be his career 2nd best by that point. Blk and tov numbers would be his best, and his per possession efficiency also would be the best.
2006; Duncan had to play the regular season with jogger's heel.
2007; Duncan had a healthy season and the Spurs were 5th in ORtg with +3.3 relative value. +5.8 rORtg with Duncan and -2.3 rORtg w/o Duncan. Per 100 numbers;
31.4 pts 16.6 reb 5.4 ast 1.3 stl 3.7 blk 4.4 tov
Still in line with his prior prime numbers.

It wasn't like Duncan oriented but more talented/skillfull offense sucked later on. Duncan in his prime when healthy was capable of leading a top 5 calibre offense in the league under proper circumstances.
Looking at what could've been with Garnett and ignoring what already happened with Duncan? That's a no.

But, and this ElGee sometimes addresses it, Timmeh was clearly better if asked to be the primary engine. And, very important, he showed that he was good enough to be the primary offensive engine for a championship team (while still scaling back in later years as Parker and Manu partially took over). Yes, that stile has a ceiling, but how should we address it once we see that such ceiling is high enough for the purpose of winning a championship?

In the videos, he subtlety implied the limitations of Duncan carried offenses but he did not do the same for Garnett.
I mean, it doesn't have to be labelled as championship winning offense. Duncan's style worked better in the playoffs because he was able to go through contacts better, his scoring volume was higher thanks to that and he also put his matchups into foul troubles far often than Garnett. In the playoffs basketball where the court gets smaller because everything directly a matter of adjustment, Duncan played better.

That means, combined with their similar defensive impact, that there are more combinations of Duncan teams than Garnett teams that are good enough to get there, even if arguably the Garnett teams can potentially peak higher, because those super talented teams are very difficult to build when you have already a supermax player on the roster as those real offensively great #1 never come cheap.

Again this is about more of the same. We think of Duncan, Garnett, Ewing, Robinson, even Olajuwon, as not ideal offensive centrepieces. But the issue is 80% of the teams in the league at any random point would be dying to have these players as their offensive centrepiece because their ceiling was a big issue to begin with. Before this high scoring games craziness, the teams were dying to have a 20+ ppg scorer. I mean Andre Iguodala was treated as the offensive leader for it at one point.
Including Russell, Abdul-Jabbar, Jordan, James, Chamberlain and O'Neal, the poster boys of the peaks, no player can be a goat level defensive impact and a goat level offensive impact at the same time.
If Garnett needs more complementary pieces than the others in that tier, then it's a con on his part.

I would add that I think Timmeh was a better leader, but on my side this is some serious speculation as I never was in those locker rooms...

Well, it's like the Condorcet method we've been using in the top 100 projects. Duncan wouldn't lose to anyone in leadership department. He might get tied by some, but he wouldn't lose.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#764 » by Djoker » Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:46 pm

If I can give my two cents... I do believe Duncan was considerably better then Garnett in carrying the offense as a #1 option. It's kind of hard to deny given his much better efficiency in the playoffs. But generally speaking in an overall comparison of their games they are neck and neck with the slight of edge to Duncan.

I think what Ben was going for it to show that they really are close. I'm sure he ranks Timmy higher overall.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#765 » by Odinn21 » Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:50 pm

Djoker wrote:If I can give my two cents... I do believe Duncan was considerably better then Garnett in carrying the offense as a #1 option. It's kind of hard to deny given his much better efficiency in the playoffs. But generally speaking in an overall comparison of their games they are neck and neck with the slight of edge to Duncan.

I think what Ben was going for it to show that they really are close. I'm sure he ranks Timmy higher overall.

He has Duncan ahead of Garnett with the tiniest edge as total career value and has Garnett ahead of Duncan for peak and prime.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#766 » by Jaivl » Tue Feb 23, 2021 4:27 pm

Odinn21 wrote:He has Duncan ahead of Garnett with the tiniest edge as total career value and has Garnett ahead of Duncan for peak and prime.

He rates Duncan +0.25 higher on his peak iirc.
Maf wrote:I'd undestand if anyone had KG outside top ten PF's. Having him top five all-time? Often I jokingly rank Kyle Korver as the GOAT but I never try to fake serious discussion about it.

ShawnKemp96 wrote:Infact he made a lot more steals than the statisticians think.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#767 » by 70sFan » Tue Feb 23, 2021 4:34 pm

After rewatching Duncan episode, I found one strange thing - he compared Duncan's bankshot to Walton's but not to Wilt's. That's very strange, given that Walton didn't use it that often and it's Wilt's signature shot.

It's nothing about Duncan and I still view this episode as one of the best, but I wonder if Ben told one positive thing about Wilt in whole project.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#768 » by Odinn21 » Tue Feb 23, 2021 4:53 pm

Jaivl wrote:
Odinn21 wrote:He has Duncan ahead of Garnett with the tiniest edge as total career value and has Garnett ahead of Duncan for peak and prime.

He rates Duncan +0.25 higher on his peak iirc.

Assuming you looked at his CORP +/- valuation but when he announced that he updated the list for 2020 season he also mentioned that on his Patreon he did not make any changes on the players those are in the greatest peaks series.
NB: The numbers for players in the Greatest Peaks have not been updated since production of the series began.

Looking at his prior votes on here and arguments on podcasts, I would be surprised if he ranks Duncan over Garnett in this series.
Also, if you look at portability and overall CORP, you'd see that he has 2004 Garnett over any version of Duncan.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#769 » by Snakebites » Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:00 pm

I'll confess I have a bias against Tim Duncan. Not because I dislike him or because I dislike the Spurs (I don't dislike either) but because I've always found him to be boring to watch, even relative to other big men.

Trying to see past that here.

Also, the video strongly ties Tim Duncan's dominance to the grind-it-out-inside era that he played in. How do people feel about that? How do you feel prime Duncan would translate to today's NBA?

To be clear, I know that isn't the focus of this video series- he's evaluating how good the players were in their own era, not speculating on how they'd translate across eras, but I figured it was food for discussion.

Also, how does he compare to Hakeem in terms of overall impact? I feel like that's actually the more apt comparison than KG, who's style contrasts with him a lot more IMO.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#770 » by parsnips33 » Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:14 pm

Interesting question that occurred to me watching the Duncan vid - which NBA player saw the league change the most over the tenure of his career?
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#771 » by colts18 » Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:20 pm

parsnips33 wrote:Interesting question that occurred to me watching the Duncan vid - which NBA player saw the league change the most over the tenure of his career?

Kareem. Came in the league during the Fast paced Wilt era. Left the league in the MJ/Hakeem/Ewing era.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#772 » by HeartBreakKid » Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:30 pm

colts18 wrote:
parsnips33 wrote:Interesting question that occurred to me watching the Duncan vid - which NBA player saw the league change the most over the tenure of his career?

Kareem. Came in the league during the Fast paced Wilt era. Left the league in the MJ/Hakeem/Ewing era.


I would think the league changed more during Bill Sharman's time. When he joined the league had no black players, no shotclock, the lane was only 6 feet, two fouls per quarter, and a lot of free throw rules that changed the way the end of games were played. He also witnessed Bill Russell change the way defense was played.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#773 » by limbo » Tue Feb 23, 2021 6:00 pm

Snakebites wrote:I'll confess I have a bias against Tim Duncan. Not because I dislike him or because I dislike the Spurs (I don't dislike either) but because I've always found him to be boring to watch, even relative to other big men.

Trying to see past that here.

Also, the video strongly ties Tim Duncan's dominance to the grind-it-out-inside era that he played in. How do people feel about that? How do you feel prime Duncan would translate to today's NBA?

To be clear, I know that isn't the focus of this video series- he's evaluating how good the players were in their own era, not speculating on how they'd translate across eras, but I figured it was food for discussion.

Also, how does he compare to Hakeem in terms of overall impact? I feel like that's actually the more apt comparison than KG, who's style contrasts with him a lot more IMO.


Going by various impact aka On/Off metrics, there's only like 10-15 Centers, each season, that have recorded an offensive ranting above 0 (and a handful of them are floating barely above that mark) in recent years...

And as you might guess, most of these guys that are positive can shoot at the very least... The guys that can't are super efficient low-usage efficient finishers/off. rebounders that play like 15-25 mpg...

My line of thinking is, guys like Valanciunas, Kanter and old Steven Adams are way more offensively challenged players outside the paint than prime Duncan was... and all of those guys were able to be positive impact offensive players in recent years, albeit not by some eye-popping amount... So ultimately, i think Duncan would be more than fine, a good contributor in fact, but you have to be absolutely asinine trying to run an offense through him...I think you would do far better with a guy like DeMarcus Cousins in that position... and there's still a long way to go before we reach guys like KAT, Embiid and Jokic.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#774 » by colts18 » Tue Feb 23, 2021 6:34 pm

Duncan was in the NBA less than 5 years ago. It's not like he is an ancient dinosaur
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#775 » by 70sFan » Tue Feb 23, 2021 6:59 pm

The recency bias is such a thing... ;)
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#776 » by limbo » Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:42 pm

colts18 wrote:Duncan was in the NBA less than 5 years ago. It's not like he is an ancient dinosaur


We saw Duncan's offensive impact fell off dramatically after 2007... Not 5 years ago... The league wasmuch slower and 'paint friendly' back then than in the last 5 years...

And of course, people will argue that Duncan was 30 years old by then, but it's not like Duncan was a super dominant offensive player before that either... According to several +/- metrics i've seen, most of his pre-2007 seasons usually rank comfortably below the top offensive players of the early 2000s... He's usually firmly outside the Top 10, and even during this epoch, frequently passed by some of the best shooting Bigs around at the time like a Sheed, Joe Smith, Brad Miller, Rashard Lewis etc... He was more capable of being an offensive engine than these guys, which was probably more important in his era, but even with the early 00's being heavily slowed down and basically the worst offensive era in modern NBA history, he still wasn't separating himself in terms of impact.

Now why the hell would anyone think he would be able to do so in this era, especially people who infer the same playstyle... That playstyle was barely good enough back then unless you were Shaq, now it's prehistoric... Yes, he was able to still be a great defender 5 years ago... because the dude is 7'0 veteran with insane length playing under Popovich with a slew of great defenders... But in terms of offense... you don't run your offense through Duncan in today's league, even if you pick the 2002/2003 version of him... It BARELY worked in the early 00's, and only because it was a trash offensive era to the point where the Spurs could win titles by playing better defense than everyone else. You would be out of the league as a coach within a week if you tried doing that today. Duncan was a good enough finisher and passer with a 'escape valve in case of emergency' ability to knock down the short mid-range jumper and an overall smart enough player to still be a positive impact player on offense, but anything more than that is wishful thinking by Duncan stans.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#777 » by 70sFan » Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:14 pm

Wow, limbo now questions Duncan in this era. This just reached next level...
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#778 » by Djoker » Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:25 pm

Odinn21 wrote:
Djoker wrote:If I can give my two cents... I do believe Duncan was considerably better then Garnett in carrying the offense as a #1 option. It's kind of hard to deny given his much better efficiency in the playoffs. But generally speaking in an overall comparison of their games they are neck and neck with the slight of edge to Duncan.

I think what Ben was going for it to show that they really are close. I'm sure he ranks Timmy higher overall.

He has Duncan ahead of Garnett with the tiniest edge as total career value and has Garnett ahead of Duncan for peak and prime.


I'm a big fan of KG but I disagree with Ben. It's not ridiculous to say that peak 2004 KG is better though... maybe...
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#779 » by colts18 » Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:26 pm

As a 38 year old in 2015, the Steph Curry era, Duncan made an all-star team while averaging 17-11-4, 56 TS% per 36 then in the playoffs averaged 18-11-3, 60 TS% against the Clippers. That's not a long time ago. An Old Duncan played a key piece on a Championship team. A 40 year old Duncan was a contributor on a 67 win team. This is not ancient history.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#780 » by parsnips33 » Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:30 pm

colts18 wrote:As a 38 year old in 2015, the Steph Curry era, Duncan made an all-star team while averaging 17-11-4, 56 TS% per 36 then in the playoffs averaged 18-11-3, 60 TS% against the Clippers. That's not a long time ago. An Old Duncan played a key piece on a Championship team. A 40 year old Duncan was a contributor on a 67 win team. This is not ancient history.


He was giving DJ the BUSINESS in that series :lol: Had to go out and try to recreate the post moves after the games

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