what are the odds luka can reach lebron peak?

[pillwenney]

Given the gap in athletic dominance, the only way I could see this happening would be if Luka became a totally elite, like Durant/Bird-level shooter. Otherwise, it seems pretty impossible, especially since, as others said, it's hard to fathom how he'd ever touch Lebron's defensive peak.

[McBubbles]

Lebron's peak is arguably 2nd/3rd all time lololol

In any event, you could throw a blanket over MJ, Shaq and LeBron as the GOAT NBA peaks, with most people giving MJ a slight edge.

Luka has potential to have a top 10ish Peak.


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and kareem

I have William Russell as the greatest peak in NBA history. I do realize this is controversial since most associate peak with offense.

IS HIS FIRST NAME ACTUALLY WILLIAM?

That doesn't have the same ring to it at all no longer in my top 20.

On the other hand if Bill Walton is actually called William Walton he's now the GOAT.

[itsxtray]

To be honest, this may be a hot take, but I don't think Luka will even reach LeBron's offensive peak. If 23-year-old LeBron played in this league with these kind of foul calls and this much space he would be a more impactful inside presence than Giannis.

More impactful inside than Giannis? Idk about that. He'd definitely be more impactful than he was in his own time tho. Giannis' height/length combo seems difficult to overcome in terms of paint impact... Well now that i think about it only a few teams could keep Lebron out of the paint at the time even with the relatively less shooting, so it's possible... With even more thought Ja Morant leads the league in paint scoring but idk if you wanna say he has more impact in the paint than Giannis... hmmm, i've kinda talked myself into thinking you're right... I'm 50/50 on it with Zion having the clear most paint impact

[Ambrose]

Not likely. Luka hasn't shown enough improvement the last two seasons to warrant thinking he can touch peak LeBron. His trajectory has stagnated a bit, and I say this as a huge Luka supporter.

[McBubbles]

To be honest, this may be a hot take, but I don't think Luka will even reach LeBron's offensive peak. If 23-year-old LeBron played in this league with these kind of foul calls and this much space he would be a more impactful inside presence than Giannis.

More impactful inside than Giannis? Idk about that. He'd definitely be more impactful than he was in his own time tho. Giannis' height/length combo seems difficult to overcome in terms of paint impact... Well now that i think about it only a few teams could keep Lebron out of the paint at the time even with the relatively less shooting, so it's possible... With even more thought Ja Morant leads the league in paint scoring but idk if you wanna say he has more impact in the paint than Giannis... hmmm, i've kinda talked myself into thinking you're right... I'm 50/50 on it with Zion having the clear most paint impact

Giannis right now in his physical prime, whilst playing with incredible spacing is shooting 76.5% at the rim on 8.6 attempts per game.

A 37 year old Lebron that's been dealing with injuries all season and who's team is a piece of ****, who has ok spacing is shooting 75.5% at the rim on 8.5 attempts per game.

Hell, a 33 year old Lebron shot 75.0% at the rim on 9.0 attempts per game.

So they're basically identical despite several massive disadvantages for Lebron.

The aforementioned numbers + Lebron's superior ball handling, shot creation and playmaking = he'd very much be a more dominant inside force than Giannis.

[feyki]

note that a 1 point difference in defensive value is the "best case scenario"

most people have magic as a neutral ish defensive player and peak lebron as a guy who can make defenses 2-3 points better thsn the average wing

so in a best case scenario where you are higher thsn most on magic defense and lower thsn most on lebron D is reasonable to see magic offense as better and closing the gap

but in a worst case scenario the defensive difference is pretty big (2 or even 3 points of value) so it becomes hard to see magic offense being so much better against a offense all time himself as lebron than it can close a 2-3 point Gap

2/3 defensive SRS is dpoy level, which is Lebron was not any close to it.

To extend offensive peak comparison:
87/88 Magic(conf finals+finals 24G) - 21,5 PPG, 12,9 APG, %64,4 Offensive Load, 47,9 Points Created, +8,3 rTS, +17 rORtg
12/13 Lebron(conf finals+finals 26G) - 29,1 PPG, 5,7 APG, %50,1 Offensive Load, 42,8 Points Created, +6,7 rTS, +16 rORtg
. Higher load on higher efficiency. How could we say that equal?

Trust me, I'd love to call Magic a better player than LeBron. He's one of my favorites, while I don't really like James. At some point, we have to put our biases away and realize that there is no case for Magic over LeBron. Yes, defensive gap is massive. James is strong all-defensive level at his peak, Magic was quite good at his peak but not even close to that level.

I don't think he was better than Lebron, but it's not a clear choice, to me, due to his significant offensive gap over Lebron.

I don't see any evidence behind the arguement that Lebron was a top 5 defensive impact player in the league anytime. Maybe I'd leave 2016 Lebron because of the defense he played in the Finals, but we didn't have see any close defensive performance to that level another time by Lebron.

not quite, 2-3 points/srs improvement is what people usually ballpark the best defensive wings (kawhi, pippen) while all time great defensive bigs are "ballparked" closest to 4-5 points improvement

"Adjusted plus-minus (APM) data suggests that the best defenders might carry 5 points of impact per game and the best offensive players can top 6 points per game in a given season."
this is from elgee/ben Taylor work and gives and example of mutombo hitting 5 points a game of pure defensive impact

lebron in 2009 was the most important defender in a -5.5 defense that was way worse without him on court, i have no issues considering thst version of peak athletism lebron a 2 point defensive improvement over the average starting wing, maybe even closer to 3 in a best case scenario

In that standard plane Kareem,Wilt and Shaq were +11 SRS players, they were the best both on the offence and the D. Don't think any player cracked the 8 SRS the post 85, except of the last couple of years due to offensive inflation.

2009 Cavs were -4 without Ben Wallace(in 26G) and they were -3,5 the very next year. Lebron was the best defensive player of those -4 and -3,5 defences, but there were also the names like Varejao,Ilgauskas,West and also good defensive rotation around Lebron. Have to give credit Lebron for having between the 1/2 defensive SRS to make above average defensive team to top 10.

When it comes to the 2009 and the defence, take a look at it:

Lebron against the Magic in the Playoffs - 113,6 on court defensive rating, 113 individual defensive rating,
Kobe against the Magic in the Playoffs - 98,3 on court defensive rating, 100 individual defensive rating.