Higher Peak: AD or Jokić?

[Ryoga Hibiki]

As others mentioned, if Davis's shooting during the 2020 playoffs could be considered legit and not a statistical fluke you could argue him over almost anyone in history, including someone like Jokic.
He basically was Kevin Durant or Dirk Nowitzki from the midrange with absurd defense and finishing ability. A career like that makes a top10 all time.
But he never did it before or after, once that shooting regresses I don't see any argument to consider him over Jokic.

[KeithCozart]

Only thing where Davis peaked higher are the injuries, nothing more than that.

[Asianiac_24]

2020 playoffs AD was IMO the best player in the league and better than Jokic has ever been in the playoffs.

[NO-KG-AI]

2020 playoffs AD was IMO the best player in the league and better than Jokic has ever been in the playoffs.

Maybe, but it's a sample size thing and part playing with another all time talent.

AD is capable of being that guy all the time if he had the focus and discipline, and could stay healthy... nothing he did was out of his talent level, ya know?

Glad to get Laker picks, but I really don't enjoy seeing a talent like AD fall apart and get surpassed by guys he should be competing with for MVPs.

[JLei]

Jokic because he's historic.

But I think 18-20 Davis is super underrated given what's happened the last 2 seasons.

Very credible argument (that OP has made) that he was basically in the conversation for best player in the NBA throughout that time period. Amazing season in 18, destroys Blazers runs into the god squad, even better in 19 (but forces trade), 20 is arguably the best player.

There is a reason he is in the NBA 75 and that's because that run was pretty nuts. 29PER over that stretch and 28PER over 30 playoff games.

It's like people have forgotten (due to these last 2 years) why many teams were willing to trade their entire load of prospects and picks/ pick swaps for him.

[Woodsanity]

2020 playoff AD only happened due to the time off. Lets be honest in a normal year his body would not have held up that well but all that extra rest was a huge advantage for his glass body.

[HeartBreakKid]

2020 playoff AD only happened due to the time off. Lets be honest in a normal year his body would not have held up that well but all that extra rest was a huge advantage for his glass body.

I mean...he's played in the playoffs before, and the bubble still had a regular season.

[Woodsanity]

2020 playoff AD only happened due to the time off. Lets be honest in a normal year his body would not have held up that well but all that extra rest was a huge advantage for his glass body.

I mean...he's played in the playoffs before, and the bubble still had a regular season.

Earlier in his career he got eliminated in the playoffs very early. Very big difference between playing 4-9 games vs playing 20+ games in the playoffs.

If he played a full regular season without rest he would have likely broken down midway in the playoffs.

[No-more-rings]

2020 playoff AD only happened due to the time off. Lets be honest in a normal year his body would not have held up that well but all that extra rest was a huge advantage for his glass body.

I mean...he's played in the playoffs before, and the bubble still had a regular season.

Earlier in his career he got eliminated in the playoffs very early. Very big difference between playing 4-9 games vs playing 20+ games in the playoffs.

If he played a full regular season without rest he would have likely broken down midway in the playoffs.

Don't you think there was a level of flukiness to his scoring efficiency though? The rest helped, but it's hard seeing him approaching 66.5 ts%/38.3 3p fg%/130 ORTG on that kind of volume again regardless of the type of rest he gets.

[MyUniBroDavis]

I mean...he's played in the playoffs before, and the bubble still had a regular season.

Earlier in his career he got eliminated in the playoffs very early. Very big difference between playing 4-9 games vs playing 20+ games in the playoffs.

If he played a full regular season without rest he would have likely broken down midway in the playoffs.

Don't you think there was a level of flukiness to his scoring efficiency though? The rest helped, but it's hard seeing him approaching 66.5 ts%/38.3 3p fg%/130 ORTG on that kind of volume again regardless of the type of rest he gets.

Tbf the midrange shooting wasn’t an absurd outlier, he shot 47% around which is way higher than his last few years but he had a few years in New Orleans shooting in the low 40s from there

On three point shooting, I kinda get it but I don’t think him going 23/60 from 3 vs 20/60 from 3 is such a Huge difference, he was at the very least okay from that range for awhile which I feel would be enough, bs the last two years (his threes were more contested that 2020 season vs other years, obv they fell off hard) since it’s more about spacing than anything else

Obviously the bubble was an outlier in terms of his long distance shooting but outside of that I don’t think it’s impossible for him to replicate that kind of offensive production, and it wasn’t an absurd outlier on the scale of like, shooting 60% from three or something.

I do think it was an outlier given his circumstances, but I don’t think it would be an outlier in a better circumstance if that makes sense (if he had spacing + competent offensive coaching in regards to post help)

Defensively he’s always gonna end up looking elite in the playoffs with health because that’s kind where he shines in terms of versatility

I would say though that the only version of AD that possibly compares to Jokic so far this year is 2020 bubble AD, and you do have to be high on bubble AD for that too, and even then it’s definately situational at best

[70sFan]

Tbf the midrange shooting wasn’t an absurd outlier, he shot 47% around which is way higher than his last few years but he had a few years in New Orleans shooting in the low 40s from there

I think it was an absurd outlier for him. If you take his 2015-20 RS numbers and compare it to 2020 playoffs numbers it looks extremely different:

2015-20 RS:

43.4% on 3.1 attempt in 10-16 range
39.2% on 3.7 attempts in 16-3P range
41.2% on 6.8 attempts from midrange

2020 playoffs:

38.7% on 3.0 attempts in 10-16 range
55.2% on 3.2 attempts in 16-3P range
47.2% on 6.2 attempts from midrange

It's basically the difference between slightly above average midrange shooter and top tier midrange shooter. Davis scored more points from midrange than in RS despite taking half shot less per game.

Even in his absolute best shooting season (2017) he never reached that level (only 43.7% from midrange).

The gap is quite significant, but it becomes even more important once you add his three point shooting as well. Davis reached 34% from three once in his whole career and for 2016-20 (I excluded 2015 because he didn't shoot threes then) he averaged 32.6% from three. In postseason he shot threes at 38%, which is drastic difference.

So basically, Davis went from being decent midrange shooter and below average three point shooter into elite midrange shooter and excellent floor spacer. Combined these two things turned Davis into far more dangerous offensive weapon than he ever was before or since. Usually you can live with Davis taking jumpshots, because he's not a good shooter but in 2020 playoffs you had to guard him like he was more athletic version of Dirk.

We've seen what happened to his efficiency once his shots stopped falling in 2021 season. He had basically identical shooting selection as in 2020 playoffs, but his FG% went from 57% to 49%.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Tbf the midrange shooting wasn’t an absurd outlier, he shot 47% around which is way higher than his last few years but he had a few years in New Orleans shooting in the low 40s from there

I think it was an absurd outlier for him. If you take his 2015-20 RS numbers and compare it to 2020 playoffs numbers it looks extremely different:

2015-20 RS:

43.4% on 3.1 attempt in 10-16 range
39.2% on 3.7 attempts in 16-3P range
41.2% on 6.8 attempts from midrange

2020 playoffs:

38.7% on 3.0 attempts in 10-16 range
55.2% on 3.2 attempts in 16-3P range
47.2% on 6.2 attempts from midrange

It's basically the difference between slightly above average midrange shooter and top tier midrange shooter. Davis scored more points from midrange than in RS despite taking half shot less per game.

Even in his absolute best shooting season (2017) he never reached that level (only 43.7% from midrange).

The gap is quite significant, but it becomes even more important once you add his three point shooting as well. Davis reached 34% from three once in his whole career and for 2016-20 (I excluded 2015 because he didn't shoot threes then) he averaged 32.6% from three. In postseason he shot threes at 38%, which is drastic difference.

So basically, Davis went from being decent midrange shooter and below average three point shooter into elite midrange shooter and excellent floor spacer. Combined these two things turned Davis into far more dangerous offensive weapon than he ever was before or since. Usually you can live with Davis taking jumpshots, because he's not a good shooter but in 2020 playoffs you had to guard him like he was more athletic version of Dirk.

We've seen what happened to his efficiency once his shots stopped falling in 2021 season. He had basically identical shooting selection as in 2020 playoffs, but his FG% went from 57% to 49%.

I agree the midrange is def an outlier to an extent, I think absurd is a bit much though.

A 41.2% average vs a 47.2% run is enough that you could say he had a good run, but it’s not anything to the point where you’d say it’s absurd

The three point shooting wise I get it from a percentage standpoint but when we’re talking about him making 3 more threes than you’d expect it’s hard for me to say he was that different, teams had been closing out on him pretty hard from three throughout that year anyways.

I’m not saying that he can hit those heights again, or if I did I take that back, it’s more so that I think if he can shoot like he did in the 15-17 run I don’t think it’s practically that much of a difference, or at the very least not to the point where the boost he would get from a offensive coaching staff that knows how to use him would make up for it if we are talking about potential offensive impact

[DQuinn1575]

Davis missed lots of games. In a good scenario, he could've been the unanimous MVP back in the 2019. His impact was historically great,
.

unanimous is just silliness.
AD had similar numbers when he got hurt with Giannis, with Giannis being on a much better team. Not saying that AD COULD have won the award, but
1. GIannis and AD best case would be real close
2. Harden got 23 first place votes v Giannis. Chances are the majority of those backers still vote for him in a 3 way race.

So really, best case is probably a 50/30/20 win for AD over Giannis and Harden - Harden holding almost all his votes, and more voters going for AD over Giannis despite Milwaukee's much better record.
So he might have won mvp, but very far from unanimous

[MyUniBroDavis]

Davis missed lots of games. In a good scenario, he could've been the unanimous MVP back in the 2019. His impact was historically great,
.

unanimous is just silliness.
AD had similar numbers when he got hurt with Giannis, with Giannis being on a much better team. Not saying that AD COULD have won the award, but
1. GIannis and AD best case would be real close
2. Harden got 23 first place votes v Giannis. Chances are the majority of those backers still vote for him in a 3 way race.

So really, best case is probably a 50/30/20 win for AD over Giannis and Harden - Harden holding almost all his votes, and more voters going for AD over Giannis despite Milwaukee's much better record.
So he might have won mvp, but very far from unanimous

Genuinely am I tripping because I’m pretty sure AD wasn’t even remotely in the mvp race at the time, it was still Giannis V harden before he dipped out