Do you think winning a title this year will have a similar affect for CP3's legacy as the 2011 did for Dirk's?

[falcolombardi]

Not at all comparable. Dirk was the best player in the world and also the clutchest. His carry job towers over everything we've seen in the 2000's. The discrepancy of talent between the Mavs and this years' suns is also huge. Dirk had a few guys who could still play decent defense, while CP3 has a crazy scoring machine in Booker, a #1 pick center AND some 3&d specialists. With this suns roster Dirk would 3peat. Then again, different times and different styles. Dirk was the one who made it normal to see a 3ft guy shoot fadeaways. These days everyone is doing it, even copying his technique.

as great as dirk was in 2011 i think he is fsr from the only carry job ring

duncan in 2003 may be better for example

2006 wade, 2012 lebron, 2009 kobe or 2019 kawhi were some incredible runs too that dont fall short of dirk either

You think those can be compared when considering both the talent level of his own team, and the strength of their opponents throughout the whole playoffs?

Dirk went through the loaded Blazers, then the lakers (who were defending back-to-back titles) with Kobe, Pau, Metta, Barnes, Bynum sweeping them, then faced the OKC with their big 3 plus Ibaka then ran into the heatles and look at the guys he had. Some were way past their prime in their mid 30's like Vince Carter, Shawn Marion or Jason Terry...hell Jason Kidd was 38. Noone n that roster stands out other than Dirk.

yes, i think so

[Dr Positivity]

Not at all comparable. Dirk was the best player in the world and also the clutchest. His carry job towers over everything we've seen in the 2000's. The discrepancy of talent between the Mavs and this years' suns is also huge. Dirk had a few guys who could still play decent defense, while CP3 has a crazy scoring machine in Booker, a #1 pick center AND some 3&d specialists. With this suns roster Dirk would 3peat. Then again, different times and different styles. Dirk was the one who made it normal to see a 3ft guy shoot fadeaways. These days everyone is doing it, even copying his technique.

as great as dirk was in 2011 i think he is fsr from the only carry job ring

duncan in 2003 may be better for example

2006 wade, 2012 lebron, 2009 kobe or 2019 kawhi were some incredible runs too that dont fall short of dirk either

You think those can be compared when considering both the talent level of his own team, and the strength of their opponents throughout the whole playoffs?

Dirk went through the loaded Blazers, then the lakers (who were defending back-to-back titles) with Kobe, Pau, Metta, Barnes, Bynum sweeping them, then faced the OKC with their big 3 plus Ibaka then ran into the heatles and look at the guys he had. Some were way past their prime in their mid 30's like Vince Carter, Shawn Marion or Jason Terry...hell Jason Kidd was 38. Noone n that roster stands out other than Dirk.

2003 Spurs supporting cast isn't any better than the Mavs to me.

You could convince me that Cavs in 16 isn't actually a better supporting cast than the Mavs. KLove that season isn't any more of a difference maker than say Terry. Kyrie is more dynamic than any of the other Mavs but Mavs were well rounded with players like Kidd, Marion and Chandler.

[ardee]

as great as dirk was in 2011 i think he is fsr from the only carry job ring

duncan in 2003 may be better for example

2006 wade, 2012 lebron, 2009 kobe or 2019 kawhi were some incredible runs too that dont fall short of dirk either

You think those can be compared when considering both the talent level of his own team, and the strength of their opponents throughout the whole playoffs?

Dirk went through the loaded Blazers, then the lakers (who were defending back-to-back titles) with Kobe, Pau, Metta, Barnes, Bynum sweeping them, then faced the OKC with their big 3 plus Ibaka then ran into the heatles and look at the guys he had. Some were way past their prime in their mid 30's like Vince Carter, Shawn Marion or Jason Terry...hell Jason Kidd was 38. Noone n that roster stands out other than Dirk.

2003 Spurs supporting cast isn't any better than the Mavs to me.

You could convince me that Cavs in 16 isn't actually a better supporting cast than the Mavs. KLove that season isn't any more of a difference maker than say Terry. Kyrie is more dynamic than any of the other Mavs but Mavs were well rounded with players like Kidd, Marion and Chandler.

If anything, it's probably decently worse. Dirk carried a big load but the Mavs had solid experienced veterans in Kidd, Marion and Chandler, like you said, and at least a decent sparkplug in Terry. It doesn't take away from Dirk's greatness, but Duncan was working with trash. Robinson was done, Parker/Manu were babies. The second best player was probably S-Jax.

[feyki]

With Paul and without Booker the Suns were indeed 5-3. However for three of those eight games, DeAndre Ayton was also absent (and TWO of those three games were against winning teams [one a top-10 team]).
Paul managed 1-2 record without EITHER of his two co-stars and while playing mostly winning teams.

Without Booker, but still having Ayton, Paul and the Suns managed 4-1 [.800] (that one loss came to a full strength [before Dray's injury] Warriors team).

With Booker but without Paul the Suns were indeed 8-3. But Ayton was around for all 11 of those; Booker never had to see how they could fair while playing without EITHER of his two co-stars....he always had at least one of them around.
And fwiw, 6 of those 11 games were against teams with losing records; only two of 11 were against top-10 teams (Utah and Miami [though Miami was without Jimmy Butler at the time]).

Paul without Ayton: Suns were 18-4. But again, three of those games were without Booker either (and against mostly winning teams) where they went 1-2.
Paul + Booker, but without Ayton: the Suns went 17-2.

Ayton without EITHER co-star: Suns went 3-1 (beating three losing teams, and losing to one elite team [Milwaukee]).

fwiw, overall....
Suns with all three "stars": 31-7 [.816].
Suns missing one of the three: 29-6 [.829]
Suns missing two of the three: 4-3 [.571]
Suns missing all three: 0-2




He most certainly is an above average defender; one has an uphill battle in substantiating the contrary.
He's likely still top 5 for his position.

Sample size already was small and afterward descreased to couple of games .

Seriously reluctant to engage but ... you respond to someone posting multiple different metrics including on-off and other stats that use impact data (LEBRON) ... with a W-l record "without X" ... without any controls or noting contextual factors where simultaneous absences distort that data ... and your complaint when that data is parsed is that now the sample is too small.

The better impact measures had a ton of data that you needlessly chucked out.

I don't know where Paul ranks now ... I'd have to make the list to get a proper range ... but I can't understand this line of argument.

Maybe, I'm the one who don't have any interest on on/off metrics(minutes based)?

[Doctor MJ]

He is seriously racking up some insane longevity. He has led the league in assists 14 seasons apart, and has effectively been a top 3 PG for 15 straight years (only really blips are '10 and '19, both primarily due to injury).

I haven't really thought about all-time lists in a couple of years, but I think he really should be somewhere in the 18-20 range at this point, title or not.

His record of poor performances in the Playoffs are very overblown as we know. Some people hold a season like 2017 against him, when his team lost to the Jazz in the first round, but he averaged 25/5/10 on 59% TS. Time and time again he has been let down by his teammates while performing to the best of his own ability, just like Dirk prior to 2011.

Is it likely we'll see people shift their perception and give him the credit he deserves?

Hmm, 2 things:

1. Paul, circa '21-22 doesn't have anything like the negative perception holding him back that Dirk circa '10-11 did. To the extent they were analogous before, '20-21 very much re-habilitated Paul's brand.

2. Dirk certainly doesn't get to blame anyone but himself for his 2007 playoff performance, and it is 2007 that everyone thought about when knocking him.

With that said, certainly Paul having a great post-season run here that culminates in a chip will help perception of him.

[tsherkin]

1. Paul, circa '21-22 doesn't have anything like the negative perception holding him back that Dirk circa '10-11 did. To the extent they were analogous before, '20-21 very much re-habilitated Paul's brand.

This is certainly true. While he was doing mostly fine the year before with the Thunder, the wild turnaround he helped engineer in Phoenix was a big boost.

With that said, certainly Paul having a great post-season run here that culminates in a chip will help perception of him.

It sure can't hurt. And it's impressive to see him still strumming along. And for a 36, going on 37 year-old 6-footer, he's still going pretty hard in his 17th season. And having a very impressive year to boot, individually and in terms of the team's success around him.

[picko]

Given how critical fans are of superstars who fail to win a title - I think it's clear that winning a championship this season would fundamentally change the narrative around CP3 in much the same way that it did for Dirk. It basically removes the one go-to argument against him being an all-time great.

[trex_8063]

Seriously reluctant to engage but ... you respond to someone posting multiple different metrics including on-off and other stats that use impact data (LEBRON) ... with a W-l record "without X" ... without any controls or noting contextual factors where simultaneous absences distort that data ... and your complaint when that data is parsed is that now the sample is too small.

The better impact measures had a ton of data that you needlessly chucked out.

I don't know where Paul ranks now ... I'd have to make the list to get a proper range ... but I can't understand this line of argument.

I appreciate you saying this previously. It makes me feel my frustration wasn’t entirely unjustified:

In my initial reply I cited FIVE different “families” of metrics…….but was nonetheless lumped into a demographic of “stupid” people obsessed with ONE metric (while accuser barely alluded to ONE of the other FOUR families mentioned [the other three neglected entirely]).

He cited some figures [lacking full context] that had 11 and 8-game samples, and acted somewhat as though it was a “checkmate!”-level argument.
But when I added MUCH more contextual specificity which trimmed it to 11, 5, and 3-game samples, it’s suddenly too small to be of any relevance at all.

It certainly doesn’t leave one with the impression of genuine intent.
I don’t think I’ll engage him directly any further, though I have further thoughts for anyone else reading.

I am curious as to the source of the DFGA/DFG% data he presented, as I wanted to verify it.
I think nba.com’s defensive tracking numbers are broken. It’s been awhile since I’ve used it, and maybe I’m erroneous in what I think it’s telling me…….but it’s saying that most guards are defending only ~2 FGA’s per game [which is really hard to believe], and that the average DFG% is ~70% [which is impossible to believe]:

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defensive-impact/?dir=1&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerPosition=G

His [my accuser’s] numbers do seem more realistic (if hedging toward higher than expected in terms of DFGA per game [though maybe his were per 75 or 100 possessions???]). However, it brought to mind a number of ways in which this type of data can be misused or misleading.

1) He’s making the blanket assumption that fewer DFGA means worse defence.

This is not always the case. Some players are great at busting a play before it comes to fruition (taking a potential shot-attempt, and turning into, well…….NOT a shot-attempt). In these instances the offensive player may manoeuvre in futility for a few seconds before off-loading the ball to a teammate [who often ALSO doesn’t have a good look].

Perhaps a good example was ‘20 Lebron [who was really playing well on that end that particular year]. There were a number of plays (like literally 1-3 plays per game) where, if played against a less-adept defender, it would have resulted in a shot attempt; but Lebron simply blew up the play with timely rotation, not leaving his feet, moving well on-ball, etc, until the ball is finally kicked out/away. Such plays REDUCED his DFGA numbers, but it was still outstanding defence.


2) Players may be targeted specifically because they’re weak defenders.

Such players may accrue additional DFGA because they are poor defenders (and thus have a bullseye on them). This happens via simply going to the man he’s defending more often than usual, and/or thru things like screening until you get the switch you want [“bum hunting”].
Alternately…..


3) Weak defenders are often assigned the offensively weakest [often lower efficiency] option possible from the opponent’s roster.

While this will result in lower DFGA [perceived as bad], it will frequently also result in lower DFG% [perceived as good].
On the flip-side, a good defender is frequently tasked with guarding the GOOD offensive options on the opposing team; which often results in higher DFGA [perceived as good], but also higher DFG% [perceived as bad] because it’s the opponent’s stud that they’re defending.
So it’s one other thing that muddies the water when looking at this stuff. And finally….


4) Reduced DFG% is not always the direct result of good individual on-ball defence.

Sometimes it’s as much the result of defensive schemes and teammates as it is on the individual.
A good example might be Mike Conley. I watch a TON of Utah [that’s my team]; he’s not as good defensively as Chris Paul. He’s just not.
But his DFGA/DFG% figures [supposedly] look better.
Utah’s defensive schemes [admittedly more in years past than in current season] have permitted perimeter defenders to close out hard on 3pt shooters (because you got that guy Gobert covering you back if you get beat off the dribble), which resulted in excellent 3pt defence in years past for many of their perimeter core [this year is only middle of the road].

And often if shooters do get run off the line they’re left with the option of either pulling up in the mid-range [lower % shot, even if it is only weakly contested] or challenging Gobert near the rim……..and a lot of them would choose the former. This too contributes to low DFG% for the perimeter Jazz player, but it has as much or more to do with Gobert as it does that perimeter defender.


So these are just a few ways in which these numbers can be misleading or misused.


As to Paul on defense……sure, he’s not elite as he once was. But he still doesn’t die on a screen as much as many PG’s do; he can stay in front of his man better than many [like Utah's backcourt (their recent performance may be colouring my opinion there)]. Despite his size he still closes/contests on outside shooters better than just about all the backcourt core in Utah (their recent performance again colouring my opinion there). And he’s also not exactly easy to post up, despite his height. As Doris Burke recently said of both him and Kyle Lowry: they tend to take it personally if you try to post them up.

He’s still near the top in STL% [as per prior poster’s own data]. And the thing with Paul and steals: he’s not leaving the team hung out to dry on his steal attempts. He’s not shooting passing lanes (which has huge defensive cost when you miss); he’s not allowing guys past him so he can try the reach-around steal attempt. Most of his steals are on-ball, deflecting short-range passes (slip-passes and whatnot; he’s always been outstanding in his placement of hands and his general positioning on defence), or anticipating a front-court pass perfectly. So the turnovers he generates come with relatively little defensive cost (compared to someone like, idk.......Allen Iverson maybe). Fairly solid defensive rebounding PG, too.

So yeah, I’d still contend he’s a plus defender this year; and I anticipate RAPM will eventually back that statement up (nearly all other metrics already do).


Regarding offense, some have been implying he’s riding Booker’s coattails, because Booker scores so many more points.
But Paul’s probably "responsible" for MORE offense than Booker. If we, for example, say each assist is accounting for 2.35 pts (figuring some are on 3pters, there’ll be some And-1’s, and also figuring that for every assist there’s a certain number of FT-assists that likely occurred). Truly, 2.35 is a WAY conservative figure when factoring in all those things; but otoh, he’s not fully and directly responsible for assisted points (someone else still has to make the bucket).

So if you'll indulge me and we run with that 2.35 pts/assist figure, he’s actually responsible for about +2 pts MORE than Booker per game……and did so with +0.5% TS [relative to Booker] and a negligible -0.03 fewer topg, fwiw.

As I noted earlier, he’s probably got the holistically best statistical case for best player on the team in the rs. So far, that is holding true in this 1st round playoff series, too: even with the stinker in game 4, he’s got the team’s best WS/48 and BPM, while being only slightly/negligibly behind Booker and Ayton in PER…..though he’s also averaging more mpg than either of them [and of course Booker has missed two games, too].
And off the box: he's then got far and away the best on/off of any rotational player on the roster in these playoffs, too.

And then we have some general leadership considerations.....
Take Isiah Thomas as a comparison. He doesn’t have a firm statistical claim as the best player on either title Piston team (at least not in the rs). But he’s credited with being their best player in part because of his playoff presence [he DOES have the statistical case there] and because he’s recognized as the team’s general culture/attitude leader.

Chris Paul is largely recognized as the source of the culture change in Phoenix, too. You can frequently see it in the body language of his teammates on the court and in the huddles that they defer to him; and his two co-stars have been fairly vocal about that since his arrival as well. Things they have said on the record since his arrival:

The relationship between Chris and Deandre is going to be great. I’ve already pulled Deandre aside a couple of times and been like, ‘This is what you needed and this is what I needed also.’ … Chris expects greatness out of us. He expects to win and he wants to win very badly and I’m on the same page as him. I know he’s gonna do and say anything and hold people accountable at all times to reach that goal that we’re trying to make.
We already have the understanding amongst all of us that we have the same goals in where we wanna go. There’s gonna be a lot of constructive criticism around here, which is what we need.

I know he gon’ be on my tail. I need that, me and Book need that, this team needs that.

: I love CP, man. That’s really the only teammate that really pushed me. Like big-bro-type push……I think he was the best thing that happened to my career. I can say that every day.

Just knowing the type of tradition and the type of dude and the type of career he had and the foundation he laid in this league, it’s tremendous. And knowing that I’m gonna be a part of his legacy? Oh yeah. I can’t stop moving. I want to lift more weights. It’s go time. You have a future Hall of Famer coming here to really show us the ropes and help me and Book out as young guys who can really take over this league.

There’s many bits and pieces that he will come to me and talk about a lot, but I just sit back and observe him at the same time.

I’ve known Chris, I’ve seen Chris, I’ve played against him — I know just how good he is and I’ve had a chance to see how he elevates all his teammates, specifically the big guys he plays with. For Deandre, he should be excited, because Chris will help bring the best out of him.

He’s the leader and he’s the vet. If he want me to jump, I got it. That’s our vet and that’s our leader, so whatever he wants, we locked and we buying in on it. No questions asked and I’m just ready.

Y’all need to fix y’all faces, we got CP3 in Arizona! We got Chris Paul in Phoenix!

Devin Booker has also said there is a presence “you can feel” in the building since Paul’s arrival.


There's more that could be said, but I'll leave it for another time/thread.