Nets: Replace Durant w/ ’18 Lebron James

[PaulieWal]

I don't know if they win round 1 but they definitely win two or three games. He will reign the clown Kyrie in and he is a much better passer than Durant so doubling him is not as effective.

With LeBRon they would be a much higher seed and I am sure they would beat any of Raptors, Bulls or even Philly in round 1.

[falcolombardi]

i dont know, but it would be fascinating to watch

i wouldnt bet against lebron except against monster teams which, while really damn good, i am not sure boston is

[Homer38]

Why are people picking losing in the 1st round as an option? OP didn't say replace KD with LeBron just for the 1st round. With LeBron on the Nets they are definitely not a 7th seed. They are most likely a 3rd or 4th seed. 2018 LeBron was incredibly healthy and played all 82 games.

With a 3rd or 4th seed I think they face the Celtics in the ECF and it would go 6 or 7. 2018 LeBron was simply a better basketball player than KD this year and much healthier to boot.

I agree they wouldn't be as low in the standings, but James coasted a lot during that season. I can't see Nets getting as high as 3rd, not with Kyrie missing so many games.

LBJ had a very bad month in 2018(january)but for the rest of the regular season he was played at a MVP level.50-52 wins with this nets team would been likely with 82 games played,good to be in 2-4 seed

[LukaTheGOAT]

The Celtics this year had a -5.1 rDRTG which is really special stuff.

The 2018 Celtics which is considered to have similar yet much more offensively raw personnel (although you get a much younger Al Horford who might have been the Celtics 2nd best player this past series), had a -4.7 rDRTG. You could argue the defenses were similar in ability.

Minor quibble about your excellent and thorough post: I think this direct comparison of relative DRTG doesn't help us understand how good the 2022 Celtics are. Obviously defensive ratings change over the season and teams have theirs ups and downs. But this Celtics team had a rare in-season transformation that basically gives us a tale of 2 teams. The 2022 Celtics, despite their -5.1 on the season, have never been that level of defense. They spent the 2021 portion of this season hovering around -2.0 rDRTG but when the new year struck, they've been closer to -8, which puts them on the doorstep of the goat defenses discussion (had they done it all season).

I'm saying this because if Boston was still a -5 defense, I have a harder time picturing them pulling off the bottling up of KD quite like they did.

For all of Durant's struggles, BKN still managed a 117 ORTG in the series, which would have been +5 in the regular season (higher than any team actually managed for the duration of the season). Now I recognize we basically had two different seasons being played this year under two sets of rules which saw a big jump in league efficiency. Even so, 117 is still above even the best monthly average in the league which was about 115-116.

That being said, BKNs offense wasn't that bad. Their defense just allowed Boston to put up a 122 ORTG (115 in rs), which is the 2nd highest for any playoff team thus far behind GSW's 124 rating. A far bigger issue.

I think its probably worth considering if having Lebron in place of Durant would allow BKN to put more defense on the floor and still manage similar offense to compete with Boston, if BKNs roster even allows for it.

@jamaalstar21 you are absolutely right about the Celtics greatly improving their defense since the calendar turned to the new year. I didn't know exactly where to find their relative defensive rating for just a section of the year, but I still should have made mention.

One thing I wonder though is how much not having Robert Williams play much of this series in this hypothetical. He played 16 and 14 minutes in the final 2 games, and I consider him the Celtics best defender. He actually was the betting odds favorite for DPOY before he got hurt. I don't know how to exactly find relative defensive rating for games without Robert Williams, but I wonder if that might be a better estimation of what we should expect out of them as a defense.

[Jaivl]

I want to say they're a 2nd round team (they don't beat the Celtics but they get a higher seed), but some part of me thinks LeBron could somehow lead the Nets to the Finals.

[cupcakesnake]

You have a point, but I do want to throw out that -5 defenses are not that common. We have 0-2 of them per year, mostly. In 5 seasons since 2004-2005, we've had 3 guys (and in one, we had 4). There have been three seasons where no team has made that mark. It's an arbitrary cut-off, just because that's the level at which Boston is listed for this season, but I wanted to take a second to note how impressive a -5 defense is.

Maybe they really are a -8 defense, like we've seen once since 04-05. Maybe they're more of a -7 defense, like we've seen five times since then (6, if you round up a -6.9). But even if they aren't, and the overall quality of their defense is exaggerated a little because they were focusing on Durant and selling out to stop him while others were able to get good looks, it's still an overall impressive plateau on which to stand as a team defense. \

Just some food for thought.

Totally, and I'm happy to avoid definites when describing this defense. I'll only say they've been playing at this historic level for a nice sustained period of time and deserve credit for that (which they've definitely been getting!) Aside from the much talked about Time Lord adjustment, it's hard explain the massive defensive transformation they've undergone. There are other teams that went from good to historically elite, but the examples I can think about involved big personnel changes (Sheed in 2004 and Gasol in 2019). I'm sure some on this board might have some more analogous examples of in-season defensive transformations.

I'd also say, in my own personal perception of Boston's defensive personnel; this team makes much more sense as a -5 or -7 defense than it did as a -2. I found Boston's struggles the past 2 seasons to be confusing, on both sides of the ball. I couldn't imagine Smart/Brown/Tatum not being a pretty ideal perimeter defense, and so when Time Lord and Horford were healthy (providing multiple mobile rim protectors), it just felt strange that they were just pretty good on defense.

@jamaalstar21 you are absolutely right about the Celtics greatly improving their defense since the calendar turned to the new year. I didn't know exactly where to find their relative defensive rating for just a section of the year, but I still should have made mention.

One thing I wonder though is how much not having Robert Williams play much of this series in this hypothetical. He played 16 and 14 minutes in the final 2 games, and I consider him the Celtics best defender. He actually was the betting odds favorite for DPOY before he got hurt. I don't know how to exactly find relative defensive rating for games without Robert Williams, but I wonder if that might be a better estimation of what we should expect out of them as a defense.

I'm 100% with you on Time Lord and felt he still should have been Boston's ballot representative for DPOY (smart played 10 more games). The defense held up okay after his injury, though they had gave up some hefty offensive performances to Indiana and Milwaukee. Too small a sample to feel the lack of Robert.

Another point (and one that brings it back to the topic's subject) is that Brooklyn was probably the opponent that Time Lord mattered the least against. As many have pointed out: Brooklyn had very little rim pressure, so crowding Durant, pressuring ball handlers, and heavily contesting perimeter shots was the name of the game. RWIII was a small bonus in this series. Against Lebron though, his absence would have been massive and series altering. We can all picture what still prime Lebron would have done to those Daniel Theis minutes.

[cupcakesnake]

Why are people picking losing in the 1st round as an option? OP didn't say replace KD with LeBron just for the 1st round. With LeBron on the Nets they are definitely not a 7th seed. They are most likely a 3rd or 4th seed. 2018 LeBron was incredibly healthy and played all 82 games.

With a 3rd or 4th seed I think they face the Celtics in the ECF and it would go 6 or 7. 2018 LeBron was simply a better basketball player than KD this year and much healthier to boot.

I'll admit, I did start projecting this from the playoffs and didn't consider the regular season. Even Lebron haters can't argue that 82 games of 2018 Lebron is going to positively effect win totals more than 55 games of 2022 Durant.

I don't feel like leaning too heavy into that hypothetical (like I want to assume Harden still leaves just to not muddle the comparison too much). Brooklyn was an absolute mess, so we're really asking how many games a Lebron/Bruce Brown/Patty Mills core wins (with cameos from Harden and Kyrie). Over/under 50 wins in this conference. 2018 Lebron saved most of his defensive effort for the postseason, but those 29th ranked Cavs lazy rivere'd their way to 50 wins in a very weak Eastern Conference. I can't say with any confidence that this team doesn't get into that 2-4 seed range (51 win 3-way tie this year). But my feeling is that they fight the Raps for the 5th seed. 5 more wins for a 49-win season would be my bet that year if I were a gambling man.

Man imagine the Lebron-Kyrie drama while Kyrie sits out hahaha. We might be changing the style of Brooklyn's drama more than the win total.

[Homer38]

The east is not that weak in 2018...It was not great and weaker than this year, but remember 4 of the 6 best record in the league were in the east and the 8 seed had 43 wins, so I had seen much worse before

It's true however it was a weak year for the number of true contenders in the NBA....I mean only Houston and Warriors were a true title contender in 2018 and team like pelicans and jazz with rookie Mitchell make the second round in the west

[LesGrossman]

they go to the finals. this is a no brainer. if he made to the finals with the 18 cavs, he's making with this brooklyn team and kyrie.

…because the context of the conference does not matter, right? Like, if convenient we just assume those Celtics are the same as they were five years ago.

LeBron without help against this opposition would not do anything. They stop him just like they stopped KD, dont fool yourself. He didnt even make the post season with the Lakers twice now, theres absolutely no reason to believe he would have done more. For some reason, LeBron fans enjoy harping on KD right now ,as if a 1st round exit isnt still a lot better than missing the playoffs altogether, but theres remarkably little talk about the context - from Kyrie (did you read he wants to „manage“ the franchise now? And of course he made sure everyone sees he observes ramadan so his miserable performance was for the greater good…) to Simmons to Harden and the price they gave up to get that bum, including the Cavs MVP Jarrett Allen.

The Celtics will probably face the Sixers next - and i dont see them fall for the Nets either, regardless of who leads them - and then the Bucks. After that they may face the reborn Warriors. Its just beyond me how anyone could say this team, with Bron instead of KD, would win a title. Personally i dont think he would have made any difference, assuming he cant manipulate the roster construction, and coaching.

Read the title please....We talk about 2018 LeBron when he was 33 years old and he had no problem to stay healthy,not the 37 old LeBron who struggle big time to stay healthy

2018 LeBron was legendary, no team can stop him

Imagine being so mad about KD's awful playoffs series that you attack LBJ without reading the full title of this thread!

Why do you get personal again? Can one not write anything slightly critical of LeBron without being accused of bias?

I read the title. But i think you live in a parallel reality tbh. According to you, „no team can stop him“ (referring to 2018 LeBron). In your universe he won the title then in 2018, right? Because otherwise, that is exactly what happened - a team, namely KD‘s team, stopped him. Easily. Who was finals MVP?

I said he would ahve lost vs the celtics as well. Even if he gets past them with this train wreck of a roster, he wont get past Sixers, let alone Bucks, LET ALONE warriors. I didnt say he would have played as miserable as KD did. Calm down.

[LesGrossman]

I don't know if they win round 1 but they definitely win two or three games. He will reign the clown Kyrie in and he is a much better passer than Durant so doubling him is not as effective.

With LeBRon they would be a much higher seed and I am sure they would beat any of Raptors, Bulls or even Philly in round 1.

Well thats a different interpretation of the initial question imho. I understood replace them to start the post season. Probably most did.

[tsherkin]

I'd also say, in my own personal perception of Boston's defensive personnel; this team makes much more sense as a -5 or -7 defense than it did as a -2. I found Boston's struggles the past 2 seasons to be confusing, on both sides of the ball. I couldn't imagine Smart/Brown/Tatum not being a pretty ideal perimeter defense, and so when Time Lord and Horford were healthy (providing multiple mobile rim protectors), it just felt strange that they were just pretty good on defense.

Watching that series supports the idea that they look better than a -2 defense, for sure

[PhiEaglesfan712]

The east is not that weak in 2018...It was not great and weaker than this year, but remember 4 of the 6 best record in the league were in the east and the 8 seed had 43 wins, so I had seen much worse before

It's true however it was a weak year for the number of true contenders in the NBA....I mean only Houston and Warriors were a true title contender in 2018 and team like pelicans and jazz with rookie Mitchell make the second round in the west

This is why LeBron's 2018 playoff run is even more impressive. The Pacers and Celtics were better teams than the Cavs that year, but LeBron willed his way to winning those series. I saw the Cavs play the Clippers and the Lakers on a back-to-back in March, and they were absolutely pitiful. You couldn't tell me that this team would make it past the first round of the playoffs, let alone the NBA Finals.

If Durant is replaced for 2018 LeBron James, that Nets team is at least making the NBA Finals, and probably winning it.

[ShotCreator]

This is one of those things you don’t overthink. Out of qualifying players, Durant had a 538 RAPTOR rating of 102nd out of 102. And the series was still close.

He was an abject disaster on both ends. He actively played like complete garbage.

The Celtics defense is not much better than defenses LeBron’s eviscerated in the past.

Brooklyn likely sweeps the series with 18 LeBron. You are replacing a pitiful, draining negative with probably a top 10 offensive peak come playoff time.

Kevin Durant had a James Wiseman level series.

It’s not at all complicated.

Boston didn’t even have real rim protection for LeBron standards out there. Al Horford? Tatum?

It would’ve looked easy. It would’ve been punishing. And LeBron would’ve gotten better as the series went on and Boston’s schemes are more obvious.

You are not one pass-away help defensing LeBron into a bad series, or even close.

18 LeBron pretty much solved NBA defense and had every tool in his arsenal. Fade-aways, cut game, post-up and deep seal play, pick and roll ball handling, pick and roll man play, great pull up shooting, sage level passing, sage level finishing.

Durant saw a little physicality, some overt helping(overt being the critical word), and long arms and cratered on both ends.

LeBron would thrive in a physical series. He would take every single wing set on him to the restricted area on and off ball and eat every big alive on switches.

I humbly say this would be a sweep due to an overwhelming Brooklyn Nets offensive onslaught. A shocking one, much like what was done to the 18 Raptors.

[Cavsfansince84]

This is one of those things you don’t overthink. Out of qualifying players, Durant had a 538 RAPTOR ratings 111th out of 112.

He was an abject disaster on both ends. He actively played like complete garbage.

The Celtics defense is not much better than defenses he’s eviscerated in the past.

Brooklyn likely sweeps the series with 18 LeBron. You are replacing probably a top 10 offensive peak come playoff time with a pitiful, draining negative.

Kevin Durant had a James Wiseman level series.

It’s not at all complicated.

Boston didn’t even have real rim protection for LeBron standards out there. Al Horford? Tatum?

It would’ve looked easy. It would’ve been punishing. And LeBron would’ve gotten better as the series went on and Boston’s schemes are more obvious.

You are not one pass-away help defensing LeBron into a bad series, or even close.

18 LeBron pretty much solved NBA defense and had every tool in his arsenal.

I think this is a definite possibility where the Nets win a close game 1 then LeBron just snowballs mentally over them. Maybe it goes 5 or 6 but 2018 LeBron is tiersssssss above what we just saw from KD and no the Boston defense isn't gonna do much to stop him either. Its the same LeBron who eviscerated every defense he saw in 2018 and put up 51 in game 1 of the finals. Plus he'd have Kyrie playing much better imo along with the other guys because at the end of the day he is a much better leader than KD is. I'm not sure how far the Nets would go but people would be expecting them to make the finals I would say. The 2012-2018 version of LeBron was really tough to beat in a 7 game series and we saw it again in 2020.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Personally, I'm more impressed with LeBron's 2018 run than anything he did in 2012-2017 and 2020. In those years, LeBron was surrounded with superstars. He was expected to win during those years. In 2018, LeBron had pretty much his whole team traded during the Trade Deadline and was left with a bunch of nobodies after the Trade Deadline. LeBron (with that team) beating the Celtics in the 2018 Eastern Conference Finals is probably the most impressive feat in the history of the NBA.