Is Kobe a good demarcation point for the top 10 GOAT? Introducing "The Kobe Test"

[eminence]

Plus-minus stuff.

I was just fiddling with this same stuff the other day (was trying to look at RS vs PO). Figured I'd share the list I had of pergame +/-. Possible I'm missing someone with fairly low minutes. I only looked at guys who started in '97 or later. Can I ask where you looked on BBref for their data (I've been using statsmuse)?

1. Steph +6.7
2. Kawhi +6.1
3. Duncan +6.1
4. Draymond +6.0
5. Embiid +5.9
6. Klay +5.7
7. LeBron +5.3
8. Manu +5.0
9. CP3 +4.5
10. KD +4.5
11. Danny G +4.4
12. Parker +4.2
13. Dirk +4.0
14. Nash +3.9
15. Gobert +3.9
16. Harden +3.8
17. Jokic +3.6
18. George +3.6
19. Fisher +3.2
20. Peja +3.0
21. Westbrook +3.0
22. Kobe +3.0
23. Giannis +3.0
24. Ray Allen +2.8
25. Billups +2.7
26. Wade +2.6

So far (have a couple more guys to add to my list) Shareef Abdur-Rahim is in dead last for career pergame and total +/-, challenged by only Ricky Davis. So that as the Curry before Curry comp kind of annoys me from time to time.

Now obviously this is a stat where you'll see groupings for good teams emerge. But as Kobe is someone who generally had good teams this is a pretty disappointing showing. I'm meaning to put together a list of just 'primes' so that should help him a bit removing those terrible last few years.

is tjis their full career averages? or what is the time frames used

That's full career, regular season and playoffs.

I'm looking to do a more narrowed version, but it's tricky to decide on years for plenty of guys. I don't have them all off the top my head, but Kobe was around +4.1 for '99-'13. Most improved a bit obviously.

[yoyoboy]

Plus-minus stuff.

I was just fiddling with this same stuff the other day (was trying to look at RS vs PO). Figured I'd share the list I had of pergame +/-. Possible I'm missing someone with fairly low minutes. I only looked at guys who started in '97 or later. Can I ask where you looked on BBref for their data (I've been using statsmuse)?

1. Steph +6.7
2. Kawhi +6.1
3. Duncan +6.1
4. Draymond +6.0
5. Embiid +5.9
6. Klay +5.7
7. LeBron +5.3
8. Manu +5.0
9. CP3 +4.5
10. KD +4.5
11. Danny G +4.4
12. Parker +4.2
13. Dirk +4.0
14. Nash +3.9
15. Gobert +3.9
16. Harden +3.8
17. Jokic +3.6
18. George +3.6
19. Fisher +3.2
20. Peja +3.0
21. Westbrook +3.0
22. Kobe +3.0
23. Giannis +3.0
24. Ray Allen +2.8
25. Billups +2.7
26. Wade +2.6


Now obviously this is a stat where you'll see groupings for good teams emerge. But as Kobe is someone who generally had good teams this is a pretty disappointing showing. I'm meaning to put together a list of just 'primes' so that should help him a bit removing those terrible last few years.

Kobe’s twilight years really knock him down lot of spots though. In this calculation he would be penalized pretty heavily for the post-achilles 35+ years where he played 106 games as a -13.9 on-court player.

Taking away those final three years now Kobe is a +5.2 player and ranks 8th just behind LeBron, which is more in line with expectations.

Edit: Realized you did per game instead of 100 possessions. Point still stands about him being dragged down greatly by those last three years but I would have to recalculate to find out how much. Those last three seasons took him from a +5.2 per 100 player to a +4.1 per 100 player though, so it’s likely we’re talking about a difference of at least +0.8 or so. If he’s around 16th or so, it’s not quite as bad of a look. I realize other guys had post-primes as well but not really on the level of how bad Kobe was in his older years, and I think it’s important to mention because not everyone evaluates those tail end years differently.

[eminence]

Plus-minus stuff.

I was just fiddling with this same stuff the other day (was trying to look at RS vs PO). Figured I'd share the list I had of pergame +/-. Possible I'm missing someone with fairly low minutes. I only looked at guys who started in '97 or later. Can I ask where you looked on BBref for their data (I've been using statsmuse)?

1. Steph +6.7
2. Kawhi +6.1
3. Duncan +6.1
4. Draymond +6.0
5. Embiid +5.9
6. Klay +5.7
7. LeBron +5.3
8. Manu +5.0
9. CP3 +4.5
10. KD +4.5
11. Danny G +4.4
12. Parker +4.2
13. Dirk +4.0
14. Nash +3.9
15. Gobert +3.9
16. Harden +3.8
17. Jokic +3.6
18. George +3.6
19. Fisher +3.2
20. Peja +3.0
21. Westbrook +3.0
22. Kobe +3.0
23. Giannis +3.0
24. Ray Allen +2.8
25. Billups +2.7
26. Wade +2.6


Now obviously this is a stat where you'll see groupings for good teams emerge. But as Kobe is someone who generally had good teams this is a pretty disappointing showing. I'm meaning to put together a list of just 'primes' so that should help him a bit removing those terrible last few years.

Kobe’s twilight years really knock him down lot of spots though. In this calculation he would be penalized pretty heavily for the post-achilles 35+ years where he played 106 games as a -13.9 on-court player.

Taking away those final three years now Kobe is a +5.2 player and ranks 8th just behind LeBron, which is more in line with expectations.

Edit: Realized you did per game instead of 100 possessions. Point still stands about him being dragged down greatly by those last three years but I would have to recalculate to find out how much. Those last three seasons took him from a +5.2 per 100 player to a +4.1 per 100 player though, so it’s likely we’re talking about a difference of at least +0.8 or so. If he’s around 16th or so, it’s not quite as bad of a look. I realize other guys had post-primes as well but not really on the level of how bad Kobe was in his older years, and I think it’s important to mention because not everyone evaluates those tail end years differently.

I have Kobe at +4.1/game from '99-'13, which I feel is a pretty fair range to look at his career. KD was another guy who jumps quite a bit if you cut off a few of his early seasons. Most raise up some with some trimming. '13 onwards Curry is up over +8.

Kobe's playoff numbers drop less than most with similar sample sizes from what I can see.

[Masigond]

Yeah, arguing with lists that rank Derek Fisher higher than Tim Duncan and freaking Jason Collins higher than Kevin Garnett. What is the purpose of listing postseason +/- stats that essentially only show that some players were playing more time in the playoffs on better teams than others, without showing their respective single impact?

Not to mention the cherry picking...

[Doctor MJ]

Kobe’s twilight years really knock him down lot of spots though. In this calculation he would be penalized pretty heavily for the post-achilles 35+ years where he played 106 games as a -13.9 on-court player.

Taking away those final three years now Kobe is a +5.2 player and ranks 8th just behind LeBron, which is more in line with expectations.

Edit: Realized you did per game instead of 100 possessions. Point still stands about him being dragged down greatly by those last three years but I would have to recalculate to find out how much. Those last three seasons took him from a +5.2 per 100 player to a +4.1 per 100 player though, so it’s likely we’re talking about a difference of at least +0.8 or so. If he’s around 16th or so, it’s not quite as bad of a look. I realize other guys had post-primes as well but not really on the level of how bad Kobe was in his older years, and I think it’s important to mention because not everyone evaluates those tail end years differently.

Quite reasonable to mention that Kobe's horrible last years had a significant negative impact on his career +/- numbers.

I would point out:

1. As horrible as those years were, they don't really change the story too much. Kobe only led his team in +/- 3 times, which is astonishingly low and pertains to why I've said that +/- underrates Kobe's accomplishment in general. It doesn't say good things that Kobe wasn't able to be the huge +/- guy that top tier superstars typically are, but I have no doubt that his approach scaled better against tougher player off defense than those numbers would indicate.

2. It needs to be acknowledge that Kobe did those last years to himself. That was the time for him to switch into playing like a role player and focus on mentoring those young guys who really didn't turn out to be bad players. Instead Kobe insisted on continuing to play as alpha, it didn't work, the players around him didn't really grow, and his teammates in that period represent something of a lost mini-generation for the Lakers. It worked out alright in the end big picture because LeBron decided he wanted to go to the Lakers, but Kobe wasn't playing 3D chess here. He just wanted to keep doing his thing, and so the Lakers let him.

[eminence]

Yeah, arguing with lists that rank Derek Fisher higher than Tim Duncan and freaking Jason Collins higher than Kevin Garnett. What is the purpose of listing postseason +/- stats that essentially only show that some players were playing more time in the playoffs on better teams than others, without showing their respective single impact?

Not to mention the cherry picking...

Did anyone list playoff +/- here in this thread? I had a post for RS+PO +/-, so that's probably the closest, but not nearly the same thing (Kawhi's the highest % I know of off the top of my head, and playoff games are still sub 20% of his games played).

[mikejames23]

Kobe's +/- is okay. His playoff +/- by Statmuse is around 555, which easily beats Harden (340) or Nash (210). However, TD is the +/- hero at around +1090.

Problem with the Kobe test is me wondering if he's super conventional to be that high. Kobe truly built his reputation as a top 10 or top 5 alltimer because the entire NBA exploded into calling him the best player in the league, especially post Shaq days. It's not that he didn't deserve it, but the same could've been said for his competitors, too. He wasn't clearly at the top between 06-10 like LeBron would be when took over.

[Stalwart]

Kobe's +/- is okay. His playoff +/- by Statmuse is around 555, which easily beats Harden (340) or Nash (210). However, TD is the +/- hero at around +1090.

Problem with the Kobe test is me wondering if he's super conventional to be that high. Kobe truly built his reputation as a top 10 or top 5 alltimer because the entire NBA exploded into calling him the best player in the league, especially post Shaq days. It's not that he didn't deserve it, but the same could've been said for his competitors, too. He wasn't clearly at the top between 06-10 like LeBron would be when took over.

Kobe was clearly the best player 06-10. Thats why he went to 3 straight finals once he got a decent team. Its revisionist history when you guys try and pretend there is some debate. Dirk, Nash, KG, Duncan...Kobe was clearly above them during at this point. Wade & Lebron were close but Kobe's intangibles set him apart from those two at the time and everyone recognized it including Wade & Lebron.

[Dabradyfancy]

......

[trex_8063]

The following was part of a post from a burner/troll duplicate account. It contained at least 3 personal attacks and generally insensitive language, and was thus quickly cut by one of the global mods. Am re-posting the content [minus the insults] as it contributes to the discourse....

During Bryant's prime (01-10) only two players finished with a postseason higher +/-

auncey Billups 139 +604
Manu Ginobili Manu Ginobili 117 +581
Kobe Bryant Kobe Bryant 148 +577
Derek Fisher Derek Fisher 151 +555
Tim Duncan Tim Duncan 144 +510
Tayshaun Prince Tayshaun Prince 118 +472
Shaquille O'Neal Shaquille O'Neal 125 +457
Robert Horry Robert Horry 126 +441
Richard Hamilton Richard Hamilton 120 +428
Ben Wallace Ben Wallace 130 +368
Rasheed Wallace Rasheed Wallace 140 +309
Ray Allen Ray Allen 93 +306
Tony Parker Tony Parker 132 +265
LeBron James LeBron James 71 +254
Pau Gasol Pau Gasol 79 +244
Steve Nash Steve Nash 110 +232
Anderson Varejao Anderson Varejao 71 +221
Lamar Odom Lamar Odom 92 +212
Rick Fox Rick Fox 55 +209
Jason Collins Jason Collins 78 +198 2
Paul Pierce Paul Pierce 101 +197
Kevin Garnett Kevin Garnett 80 +197
Rashard Lewis Rashard Lewis 59 +192
Rajon Rondo Rajon Rondo 64 +184

Here is the list of the highest postseason +/- totals ever recorded:
Stephen Curry Stephen Curry 2016-17 GSWGSW 17 +245
Draymond Green Draymond Green 2016-17 GSWGSW 17 +227
Kobe Bryant Kobe Bryant 2000-01 LALLAL 16 +213
LeBron James LeBron James 2015-16 CLECLE 21 +209
Kevin Durant Kevin Durant 2017-18 GSWGSW 21 +207
Ben Wallace Ben Wallace 2003-04 DETDET 23 +202
LeBron James LeBron James 2011-12 MIAMIA 23 +199
LeBron James LeBron James 2016-17 CLECLE 18 +195
David Robinson David Robinson 1998-99 SASSAS 17 +194
Klay Thompson Klay Thompson 2016-17 GSWGSW 17 +192
Draymond Green Draymond Green 2014-15 GSWGSW 21 +192
Manu Ginobili Manu Ginobili 2002-03 SASSAS 24 +191
Lamar Odom Lamar Odom 2008-09 LALLAL 23 +189
Kevin Garnett Kevin Garnett 2007-08 BOSBOS 26 +186
Shaquille O'Neal Shaquille O'Neal 2000-01 LALLAL 16 +186
Anthony Davis Anthony Davis 2019-20 LALLAL 21 +184
Draymond Green Draymond Green 2017-18 GSWGSW 21 +183
Dwyane Wade Dwyane Wade 2011-12 MIAMIA 23 +183
Manu Ginobili Manu Ginobili 2013-14 SASSAS 23 +182
Kobe Bryant Kobe Bryant 2008-09 LALLAL 23 +181
Tim Duncan Tim Duncan 2002-03 SASSAS 24 +181
Richard Hamilton Richard Hamilton 2003-04 DETDET 23 +178
Kevin Durant Kevin Durant 2016-17 GSWGSW 15 +177
Kawhi Leonard Kawhi Leonard 2013-14 SASSAS 23 +173
Dirk Nowitzki Dirk Nowitzki 2010-11 DALDAL 21 +172

2001 Lakers post-season +/-

Kobe Bryant Kobe Bryant 2000-01 LALLAL 16 +213
Derek Fisher Derek Fisher 2000-01 LALLAL 16 +162
Greg Foster Greg Foster 2000-01 LALLAL 1 -5
Rick Fox Rick Fox 2000-01 LALLAL 16 +156
Devean George Devean George 2000-01 LALLAL 7 -18
Horace Grant Horace Grant 2000-01 LALLAL 16 +108
Ron Harper Ron Harper 2000-01 LALLAL 6 +33
Robert Horry Robert Horry 2000-01 LALLAL 16 +98
Tyronn Lue Tyronn Lue 2000-01 LALLAL 15 +20
Mark Madsen Mark Madsen 2000-01 LALLAL 13 +21
Shaquille O'Neal Shaquille O'Neal 2000-01 LALLAL 16 +186
Brian Shaw Brian Shaw 2000-01 LALLAL 16 +46


Not only is he one of very few players to appear on this list in multiple occasions, but he's doing on what was BY FAR the best post-season team of all-time AND another team that was historically great in the post-season in the 09 Lakers. And he led the best post-season team of all-time in +/-. AND he (essentially) tied for the lead in +/- for a top 10ish team of all-time in the 09 Lakers:

Lamar Odom Lamar Odom 2008-09 LALLAL 61 +792
Kobe Bryant Kobe Bryant 2008-09 LALLAL 60 +790
Pau Gasol Pau Gasol 2008-09 LALLAL 61 +726
Derek Fisher Derek Fisher 2008-09 LALLAL 62 +687
Trevor Ariza Trevor Ariza 2008-09 LALLAL 47 +510
Luke Walton Luke Walton 2008-09 LALLAL 37 +347
Andrew Bynum Andrew Bynum 2008-09 LALLAL 33 +334
Sasha Vujacic Sasha Vujacic 2008-09 LALLAL 42 +303
Jordan Farmar Jordan Farmar 2008-09 LALLAL 30 +231
Vladimir Radmanovic Vladimir Radmanovic 2008-09 LALLAL 23 +205
Josh Powell Josh Powell 2008-09 LALLAL 19 +106
Shannon Brown Shannon Brown 2008-09 LALLAL 9 +74
D.J. Mbenga D.J. Mbenga 2008-09 LALLAL 11 +55
Adam Morrison Adam Morrison 2008-09 LALLAL 3 +16
Chris Mihm Chris Mihm 2008-09 LALLAL 4 +15

https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/neil-warriors-2-0617.png?w=610
https://backpicks.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Screen-Shot-2016-07-31-at-2.27.57-PM-554x1024.png
https://backpicks.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/2-year-scaled-weighted-APM-peaks-768x516.png


Furthermore, he leads the 2008 Lakers in +/- aka one of the best non-champion teams of all-time:
Kobe Bryant Kobe Bryant 2007-08 LALLAL 60 +812
Lamar Odom Lamar Odom 2007-08 LALLAL 51 +700
Derek Fisher Derek Fisher 2007-08 LALLAL 54 +553
Jordan Farmar Jordan Farmar 2007-08 LALLAL 53 +508
Vladimir Radmanovic Vladimir Radmanovic 2007-08 LALLAL 45 +448
Luke Walton Luke Walton 2007-08 LALLAL 46 +412
Ronny Turiaf Ronny Turiaf 2007-08 LALLAL 44 +364
Sasha Vujacic Sasha Vujacic 2007-08 LALLAL 41 +314
Andrew Bynum Andrew Bynum 2007-08 LALLAL 25 +313
Pau Gasol Pau Gasol 2007-08 LALLAL 22 +294
Kwame Brown Kwame Brown 2007-08 LALLAL 8 +92
Trevor Ariza Trevor Ariza 2007-08 LALLAL 10 +79
D.J. Mbenga D.J. Mbenga 2007-08 LALLAL 12 +59
Maurice Evans Maurice Evans 2007-08 LALLAL 5 +48
Chris Mihm Chris Mihm 2007-08 LALLAL 8 +47
Javaris Crittenton Javaris Crittenton 2007-08 LALLAL 7 +47
Coby Karl Coby Karl 2007-08 LALLAL 9 +26
Brian Cook Brian Cook 2007-08 LALLAL 2 +17
Ira Newble Ira Newble 2007-08 LALLAL 2 +5

This is a list of the best "healthy" teams in history:


2008 LA: +9.7 SRS
2009 LA: +9.0 SRS

Notice how Bryant is the clear alpha on multiple teams that appear on this list AND that doesn't even include the 01 Lakers

Hell, there's ANOTHER championship team he plays where he was far and away the +/- leader in the 2010 Lakers
Kobe Bryant Kobe Bryant 2009-10 LALLAL 53 +660 38.7 27.6 5.6 5.2 1.8 0.3 3.1 10.0 21.0 47.4 1.4 4.1 34.1 6.3 7.7 82.0 2,049 1,463 297 278 95 18 166 144
Lamar Odom Lamar Odom 2009-10 LALLAL 49 +587 31.6 11.4 10.9 3.6 1.0 0.8 1.9 4.5 9.2 48.7 0.8 2.4 31.9 1.7 2.5 67.8 1,549 557 532 175 47 39 91 118
Metta Sandiford-Artest Metta Sandiford-Artest 2009-10 LALLAL 45 +585 34.2 11.6 4.6 3.5 1.5 0.4 1.6 4.2 9.6 43.6 1.5 3.8 39.3 1.7 2.5 69.4 1,539 521 208 158 68 17 74 82
Derek Fisher Derek Fisher 2009-10 LALLAL 52 +568 26.5 8.1 2.2 2.7 1.1 0.1 0.9 2.8 6.7 42.1 1.0 2.6 38.7 1.4 1.6 91.5 1,379 420 116 138 55 5 45 127
Pau Gasol Pau Gasol 2009-10 LALLAL 42 +479 36.7 18.8 11.3 3.7 0.6 2.0 2.1 7.2 12.8 56.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.4 5.5 80.4 1,543 791 475 157 25 86 90 87
Andrew Bynum Andrew Bynum 2009-10 LALLAL 42 +479 30.3 16.1 8.2 1.1 0.5 1.5 1.7 6.4 10.6 60.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 4.4 75.3 1,274 676 343 48 23 62 72 120
Shannon Brown Shannon Brown 2009-10 LALLAL 37 +301 24.5 10.6 2.5 1.7 0.7 0.5 0.8 4.0 8.8 45.5 1.1 2.8 38.2 1.6 1.9 84.3 907 394 93 62 27 17 28 63
Jordan Farmar Jordan Farmar 2009-10 LALLAL 40 +293 19.6 8.5 2.0 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.8 3.2 7.0 46.4 1.3 3.3 38.9 0.8 1.2 63.8 785 339 79 63 32 6 33 54
Sasha Vujacic Sasha Vujacic 2009-10 LALLAL 30 +169 9.1 3.9 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.5 56.6 0.5 1.2 38.9 0.5 0.6 84.2 272 116 39 22 13 1 6 32
Josh Powell Josh Powell 2009-10 LALLAL 24 +118 10.6 3.7 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.6 3.5 47.0 0.2 0.3 62.5 0.2 0.3 83.3 255 88 55 19 3 4 13 30
D.J. Mbenga D.J. Mbenga 2009-10 LALLAL 14 +91 11.5 3.9 3.1 0.3 0.2 1.2 0.3 1.8 3.4 53.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 55.6 161 55 44 4 3 17 4 16
Adam Morrison Adam Morrison 2009-10 LALLAL 8 +62 6.6 2.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 2.0 43.8 0.1 0.4 33.3 0.3 0.3 100.0 52 17 5 3 1 1 0 0
Luke Walton Luke Walton 2009-10 LALLAL 11 +43 11.8 2.9 2.1


Or what about his +/- in the clutch?

Kobe, on the otherhand, was a player who showed up really well with these playoff clutch numbers. His +141 plus/minus in 366 minutes ranks as the 2nd best career playoff mark since '97 (LeBron is #1 at +181 over 452 minutes).

Or what about his game level impact metrics?

It's called WOWY (with and without you)
In other words, if you looked at all of the activity of players moving in and out lineups over the years, whose team changed the most based on a given player’s presence?

Kobe (prime) had one of the highest scores recorded at +6.5.

He's higher than Russell, Wilt, Chamverlain, Duncan, Shaq, Bird, KG, Dr J, Karl Malone, Barkley, Durant, and many other great players.

His prime WOWYR is among the highest ever recroded at +6.5, and he's at +4.9 for carreer. To put that into perspective, Shaq is at 6.7 for career, and 5.2 for career.

[Ein Sof]

I would say the litmus test is LeBron. Surpass him and you're top 10.

[Jaivl]

I would say the litmus test is LeBron. Surpass him and you're top 1.0

Ftfy

[Ein Sof]

I would say the litmus test is LeBron. Surpass him and you're top 1.0

Ftfy

Only if you're Michael Jordan.