Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #8 (East-Central Zone [highschool])

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Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #8 (East-Central Zone [highschool]) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Mon Jun 13, 2022 3:49 pm

How it works
Simple ballot system: 3 votes/ballots [3-2-1 point system]. The "source" with the most points will take the spot.

It looks like interest in this project is limited, so I'm not going to have a designated time-limit for each place [though I don't want to leave each open for 4-5 days]; we'll probably aim for something in the neighborhood of 48 hours each, but we'll see.
This may be one of those projects that fizzles out quick due to lack of interest, but I'm hoping at least 2-3 people will come along with me for it.
There will be no approval of participants; anyone can pop in at any time to vote/contribute, even on a sporadic or part-time basis. No "arguments" will be required to accompany votes, though a list of notable players from each source being voted for is encouraged.....this will help jog memories, as well as stimulate conversation (and may help clarify the "source" in some rare cases where it is ambiguous). Hopefully we'll pick up some participants along the way.

How you want to consider those universities/sources (in terms of considerations of total players vs quality of players, etc) is entirely up to you [though others may wish to debate your selection criteria].

I'm hoping to make it out to around the top 20 [or so] "sources" of all-time for pro [NBA/ABA/BAA/NBL] players, but we'll see.


The "Talent Sources"
We are going to include non-university sources, as to do otherwise just leaves too many relevant players on the table.
Besides, it occurred to me that when scrutinizing the resulting list, one can just mentally exclude the non-university sources [I'll even colour-code those differently to make it easier], and what's left is an ordered list of the universities (as well as an ordered list of other sources)......two birds, right?
The source can be of the following three types:

a) (an American) University/College - if they played even one year at the university, that will be designated the default "source" of that pro player. If a player played at multiple universities, you can mentally factor that in to consideration for ALL universities played at, give preference to the university he had his BEST years at, or to the university he played LONGER at.....whatever; up to you.

b) a Non-USA Country (if not subject to "a" above) - This one is only to be considered a potential source IF they did not attend an American university. Examples would be guys like Dirk Nowitzki, Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, or Nikola Jokic.......their country of origin is considered the "source".
Someone like Hakeem Olajuwon, otoh, would be considered from the University of Houston [and not Nigeria].

In the event of using this designation, we may have individuals where consensus on just WHERE a player is "from" is debatable. Tony Parker is a good example: born in Belgium to an American father and Dutch mother, but raised in France (confusing already, right?). But most of us consider Tony from France [he played for their national team, too], as that's where he grew up.

And to me, that's what it's more about: where they grew up (rather than where they were born (or the nationality of his parents)). There may end up being a player for whom the "source" country is ambiguous and debatable; but we'll cross that bridge as we come to it (and again: that's why it's good to give at least a partial list of WHO you have in mind when placing a vote, so we can debate things like this as needed).

c) an American Highschool Zone - Self-explanatory: this is for American players who did NOT have a college career, but rather went straight to pro.
Having just "USA" as a single source for all American players who did NOT attend a university is just too great a source......it ends up blowing away all the competition at this point (we've just seen too many great players out of highschool now, it holds too much of a sample-size advantage over any American university).
So I've opted to break it up into three zones, which are as follows....

The East Coast Zone - This includes all states that actually make up part of America's eastern coastline [including Washington D.C. simply because it basically resides within Maryland]. That is: Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticutt. Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland [including D.C.], Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.

The East-Central Zone - This includes the states west of our "East Coast Zone", but east of [or inclusive of, in one case] the Missouri River. That is: West Virginia, Vermont, Pennsylvania, Alabama, Mississippi, Lousiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Missouri.

The Western Zone - All the states that are left: Texas, Arkansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii.


That's 14 states in the East Coast Zone, 16 in the East-Central Zone, and 20 in the Western Zone.
If you want to know why I broke them up in this manner, I wanted zones that had some geographical rhyme or reason, but also zones that had similar overall population.....
The East Coast Zone has a population of just over 108 million by recent census.
The East-Central Zone has just under 102 million.
The Western Zone has just over 119 million.

So the Western Zone has the largest population, BUT that's only by recent census. If we jumped back 60-70 years ago, that was not at all the case. Nearer the start of BAA/NBA history, the Western Zone would have been the LEAST populous zone. The population of states like California, Arizona, Nevada, and even Texas have really taken off in more modern eras.
Basketball also started out East, and spread west more gradually. So I intentionally made it the largest zone [today] to compensate somewhat for that consideration, while still having some manner of geographical demarkation to go with.

Gimme' your top 3 picks [in order] for the #8 spot.....

1. UCLA
2. North Carolina
3. Kentucky
4. Kansas
5. East Coast Zone (highschool)
6. Duke
7. Georgetown

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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #8 

Post#2 » by falcolombardi » Mon Jun 13, 2022 7:33 pm

this is the first roubd where i have no freaking idea who is the clear pick

central high school, houston, michigan, maybe even the other michigan, lousiana, spain, serbia all feel sonehat legit and i am sure i am forgetting a bunch
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #8 

Post#3 » by jalengreen » Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:49 pm

Table from last time:

Image

My initial ballot, subject to change:

Went 1. East Central last time so they'll remain my pick now. With LeBron, Kobe, Kemp, Jefferson, Ellis, Livingston, Graboski, Curry, Miles, Bazley, Outlaw, Bender, I have them at 733 win shares and 37 All-NBA selections. Depth/quantity of players is obviously lacking, but having arguably the GOAT + a top 15 player of all-time is pretty bonkers so I think right about now would be where I slide them in.

And 2. Houston... the Houston v. Wake Forest v. LSU felt like the most natural to me with how top heavy they are with all-time talent and I *think* I slightly favor Houston. It's super close though..

#3 I think I'm mainly choosing between Ohio State, Michigan State, and LSU.
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #8 

Post#4 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jun 15, 2022 1:29 am

Sorry, I've been meaning to be more active in these, but crap it's been a busy couple of weeks....

Anyway, although it's a crude measure, I thought looking at total All-Star selections and MVP's [both ABA and NBA] could be an interesting measure to add in. I'll compare several of the sources getting votes or discussion.

Total WS
Arizona - 974.3
Ohio State - 965.4
Indiana - 949.7
Michigan State - 899.5
Michigan - 897.7
East-Central Zone - 815.7 [that's with me crediting KG '09 and after and M.Gasol only thru '13 to this source]
Wake Forest - 788
Houston - 708.5
LSU - 670.1

Score [the one I'd previously shared]
Arizona - 414.89
Michigan State - 403.59
Wake Forest - 393.43
Ohio State - 391.34
Indiana - 372.88
Houston - 367.66
East-Central Zone - 361.13
Michigan - 360.12
LSU - 336.28

All-Star Selections
East-Central Zone - 47 [remember the years I specified above for KG and MG]
Houston - 38
LSU - 36
Ohio State - 33
Indiana - 31
Michigan State - 29
Wake Forest - 28
Michigan - 18
Arizona - 6 (although note they have Mike Bibby, Richard Jefferson, Jason Terry, and DeAndre Ayton......all of whom have had at least 1 or 2 All-Star level seasons, even if they weren't recognized; Iggy only got one, too)

MVP's
East-Central Zone - 5
LSU - 3
Michigan State - 3
Wake Forest - 2
Houston - 1
Indiana - 1 (or 0.5?--->George McGinnis shared a co-MVP with Dr. J [in the ABA])
Ohio State/Michigan/Arizona - 0 each
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #8 

Post#5 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jun 15, 2022 3:28 pm

fwiw, I've tried a number of variations on my "score" formula, in effort to massage out some weird-seeming results (e.g. feels like East-Central Zone should be higher, feels like Texas should be above Illinois [but they're not]).
I've altered the modifiers and such to make those things happen in other versions......only to find that it cause OTHER wonky things to happen (e.g. Louisiana Tech pulls ahead of LSU [and others].......even all the way up to top 11-12 status).

Problem is the inputs; there's simply too much variation [particularly in players produced] for any one formula to justly rate everyone. I'll still cite it [maybe even some other versions] moving forward, but just putting that out there.

For my ballots, I think I'm going to switch up and go with the East-Central Zone.
As seen in the measures I posted in post #4, they're semi-competitive in the WS-based models (at least not at the bottom, or even 2nd from last [and they did come in as the highest score still on the table in other versions, although those were the versions that put Louisiana Tech at like 11th overall too]), and then just utterly destroy the competition in All-Stars and MVP's. The combo of LeBron and Kobe is just tough to get past, particularly when you can follow it up with Shawn Kemp, Al Jefferson, Monta Ellis, and small portions of Kevin Garnett and Marc Gasol. Their shallow depth just doesn't matter much at that point, because the top 7-8 names are so far ahead of the top 7-8 of anyone else left.


For 2nd, I think I still gotta go with Michigan State.
Looking at the things I cited in post #4, they're competitive right across the board.
And Magic and Draymond is a really strong top 2. Comparing to some others with really strong top 2, they're not quite as strong as Hakeem and Drexler [Houston], perhaps, and definitely not as strong as Duncan and Paul [Wake Forest].....I'd rank them Wake Forest > Houston > MSU.

But then look at the next five names:

For MSU it's Zach Randolph, Kevin Willis, Steve Smith, Johnny Green, and Jason Richardson.
For Houston it's Elvin Hayes, Otis Birdsong, Don Chaney, Bo Outlaw, Greg "Cadillac" Anderson.
For Wake Forest it's Muggsy Bogues, Josh Howard, Jeff Teague, Rodney Rodgers, and maybe James Johnson.

OK, Houston is still definitely competitive with MSU [Hayes helps a lot, though MSU takes it from 4-7]. Wake Forest's next five are a clear 3rd here. I'd rate this Houston >/= MSU > Wake Forest

If we go further, look at the NEXT 5 after that.....
For MSU it's Jaren Jackson Jr, Ralph Simpson, Mo Peterson, Scott Skiles, Eric Snow (I don't know....there are others you could argue as the next five).
For Houston it's maybe Randy Brown, Carl Herrera, and......idk, pick three relative nobodies (guys like Sam Mack, Oliver Taylor, or Dwight Davis [if you've not heard of most of these guys, don't feel bad: there's a reason].
For Wake Forest it's perhaps Ish Smith, Al-Farouq Aminu, John Collins, Len Chappell, Frank Johnson.
For this group it's MSU > Wake Forest >>> Houston.

If we wanted to go further still, even Wake Forest runs out at that point. There's basically no one else remotely relevant to mention [and Houston had already run out in trying to pick the above five].
For Michigan State, otoh, we still have a few decent/respectable players to mention: Miles Bridges, Gary Harris, Jay Vincent, Charlie Bell.

For me, I'm not sure the edge of Duncan/Paul > Magic/Draymond is enough to offset the edge that MSU has at all points after that. Maybe, but I'm gonna stick with my gut and Michigan State for now. Putting Wake 3rd....


1. East-Central Zone
2. Michigan State
3. Wake Forest


Top HM's: Arizona, Ohio State, Indiana, Houston, LSU

Not near as impressed with Michigan as I was expecting to be at the start of this; they'd probably come in after all these names for me. After that, I'll likely be putting strong consideration on UCONN, Georgia Tech, maybe Texas, Illinois, Notre Dame.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: Top Pro Talent Sources of All-Time: #8 

Post#6 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jun 15, 2022 10:38 pm

Well, this one has been up for I think more than 48 hours now. Only two ballots, but I don't think falcolombardi's picks would change the outcome [especially since he'd picked the front-runner first for last round, iirc].

Scores:

East-Central Zone - 6 pts
Michigan State - 2 pts
Houston - 2 pts
Wake Forest - 1 pt
(one 3rd ballot unstated)

Calling it...
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire

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