Retro POY '08-09

[semi-sentient]

OK, I'm not officially allowed to vote, but I'll give my thoughts in the event that I'm included before we get to the 07-08 season. My request is in on the main thread where voters are registered.

IMO, LeBron and Kobe are separated from the rest of the pack. LeBron was the best two-way player during the course of the season, whereas Kobe had the most success as the leader of a championship team. Kobe was no slouch as a two-way player either. He wasn't as good as LeBron in the regular season (or Wade for that matter), but personally I think he was the best overall player in the post-season where he elevated all aspects of his game and played smart basketball above all else. LeBron had some (Please Use More Appropriate Word) offensive output, but as bastillion said, he didn't have as much impact defensively. I'm not going to get too much into this, but the reason that the Lakers beat the Magic was because they played better defense than the Cavs, and in particular, they were able to mostly shut down Dwight because Kobe and Odom shaded/doubled him throughout the series. I don't know who's fault that is, but there is no way in the world LeBron should have been on Alston as much as he was, and where was the help defense against Howard or any of their shooters? The thing is, LeBron is capable of having a bigger impact but didn't. Why? The team needed it.

I don't think the gap between LeBron and Kobe is very large at all. Has anyone here factored in leadership at all? The Lakers were mentally prepared from the outset (much like the Cavs are this year), and whereas the Cavs were goofing off in the post-season (photo ops, dancing), the Lakers meant business. That's to Kobe's credit. Maybe it's not enough to really overcome LeBron as POY, but it has him very close and gives him separation over Wade and Howard. BTW, remember how Dwight was all smiles in the Finals and trying to be friendly with Kobe on the court, only to get an elbow in the chest to go along with some (I presume) not so nice words? That's the difference between a champion and someone that's just happy to be in the Finals. LeBron, I think, learned a thing or two from Kobe last season and that's why no is stopping the Cavs this year. They mean business, and that's because LeBron has them ready. I think LeBron is also far more intimidating this year because of his attitude.

Anyway, my boss is pressuring me to do some work, so I gotta cut this way short.

Edit: Just read the original rules and the preference is to vote after hearing everyone's take. Since I think it's fairly close between LeBron and Kobe for #1, I'll retract my list in the event that my opinion changes based on things I hadn't considered.

[lorak]

Is this true? I'm not calling you a liar but I don't remember every game having a 20 point a lead. My memory is crap so I could be wrong.

http://espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=290520005 - Mentions 15 at the half, but it was 20 at one point.

No, it wasn't (look at the largest lead!). You guys (JB and Bastillon) over and over again provide false information.

[drza]

It's that 82 game season that determine everything about how far the team got, and it's there where you saw the true reflection of the player - seems to me clear that that should be the dominant factor?

People will come up with criterion that feels right to them, but I agree that RS has to play a substantial factor in the vote. Otherwise, why not just base this strictly on playoff performance and completely throw RS out? To me, this exercise would lose a lot of luster if that was done.

Everyone will definitely have their own takes, and they could vary from situation to situation. For me, personally, I chose Dirk over Paul but the PS vs RS question was used more as a tiebreaker than a game-changer. For example, if Paul had performed to the level that he did in the RS in the PS then maybe I would have kept him over Dirk. He didn't, though, and if it is because of injury then still, in this case I don't think that's enough of a mitigating factor when determining a full-year retro POY. Because yes, Paul was better than Dirk in the RS...but Dirk was still first team All NBA and among the best statistical players in the game. And in the postseason? Dirk revved it up to a level that was similar to what Paul did in the RS, and he led his team to a win over a higher seeded team. I think those accomplishments, in the face of Paul's (injury-inspired or not) lackluster postseason were enough to overcome Paul's regular season advantages in this case.

But again, every case can be unique. There's room for nuance.

[Sedale Threatt]

Good points, especially about nuance. I was saying the same thing in the sign-up thread. There is no hard-and-fast formula, or else there would be no point in doing this. Just plug in numbers and wait for the results.

I'm going to be really interested when we get to the 50s and 60s, when none of us are going to have any idea about such details, and little to no resources to find them.

[Doctor MJ]

And in the postseason? Dirk revved it up to a level that was similar to what Paul did in the RS, and he led his team to a win over a higher seeded team.

I have to ask, do people remember that series? His numbers went down from 25.0/7.7/2.7 to 19.2/8.6/2.2. I'm not saying he was bad, but his playoff numbers look great because of what he did in loss to Denver, not because what he did while pulling the upset.

[bastillon]

With Paul though, the Hornets were a 7 seed that lost in the first round. Nothing really lost there. So to throw out the 82 game season (which I wouldn't do in the title-favorite case either) just seems crazy. It's that 82 game season that determine everything about how far the team got, and it's there where you saw the true reflection of the player - seems to me clear that that should be the dominant factor?

fair enough, but as drza pointed out, Paul doesn't seperate himself in the RS so much from Dirk that you can make up for the gigantic gap in the playoffs. seriously, don't you think Dirk's more valuable in this case when his team wasn't high seed either and they put up a fight in the 2nd round as opposed to being embarrassed and blown out of the playoffs ?

[JordansBulls]

Is this true? I'm not calling you a liar but I don't remember every game having a 20 point a lead. My memory is crap so I could be wrong.

http://espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=290520005 - Mentions 15 at the half, but it was 20 at one point.

No, it wasn't (look at the largest lead!). You guys (JB and Bastillon) over and over again provide false information.

Yeah, ok 16 points is nothing. 15 at the half, but yet 22 and 20 the other 2 games. Sure as hell means the cast was weak especially considering Orlando's biggest lead was 4.

[drza]

And in the postseason? Dirk revved it up to a level that was similar to what Paul did in the RS, and he led his team to a win over a higher seeded team.

I have to ask, do people remember that series? His numbers went down from 25.0/7.7/2.7 to 19.2/8.6/2.2. I'm not saying he was bad, but his playoff numbers look great because of what he did in loss to Denver, not because what he did while pulling the upset.

Touche', I was speaking of his postseason stats on the whole as opposed to series-by-series. Still, though, I think my general point holds.

Dirk was good against the Spurs and was able to lead them to a series win in 5 games. Against the Nuggets his team lost, but he ramped it up to an absurd level and clearly did everything that he could as an individual to help them win. To me, that still qualifies as a pretty darn strong postseason. It's actually maybe better than the alternative (i.e. a huge Spurs series followed by a pedestrian one in a losing cause), because it shows that Dirk had that extra gear and when the team needed it he was able to access it. That it wasn't enough is less about him and more about his teammates and opponent.

[lorak]

WP
http://dberri.wordpress.com/nba-team-reviews-2008-09/
CP 28.2
DN 10.6

APM
http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers. ... 9&team=DAL
CP 15.06
DN -1.51


So Paul was far superior than Dirk in regular season.

JB,
Cavs won the other two games, so this argument against LeBron is silly.

[Doctor MJ]

And in the postseason? Dirk revved it up to a level that was similar to what Paul did in the RS, and he led his team to a win over a higher seeded team.

I have to ask, do people remember that series? His numbers went down from 25.0/7.7/2.7 to 19.2/8.6/2.2. I'm not saying he was bad, but his playoff numbers look great because of what he did in loss to Denver, not because what he did while pulling the upset.

Touche', I was speaking of his postseason stats on the whole as opposed to series-by-series. Still, though, I think my general point holds.

Dirk was good against the Spurs and was able to lead them to a series win in 5 games. Against the Nuggets his team lost, but he ramped it up to an absurd level and clearly did everything that he could as an individual to help them win. To me, that still qualifies as a pretty darn strong postseason. It's actually maybe better than the alternative (i.e. a huge Spurs series followed by a pedestrian one in a losing cause), because it shows that Dirk had that extra gear and when the team needed it he was able to access it. That it wasn't enough is less about him and more about his teammates and opponent.

I'm hesistent to reference the preceding year, but it seems applicable: Paul put up bigger numbers in the '07-08 post-season than Dirk was putting up in the loss to the Nuggets. Now - I know they are different seasons - but when talking about something as fuzzy as an "extra gear", seems odd to think Paul had it one at age 22, and no longer has it age 23.

No doubt Dirk was better in that post-season and it should be used in his favor, but it's hard for me to really look at what happened and say that Dirk proved he had a playoff ability totally alien to Paul.

[Doctor MJ]

With Paul though, the Hornets were a 7 seed that lost in the first round. Nothing really lost there. So to throw out the 82 game season (which I wouldn't do in the title-favorite case either) just seems crazy. It's that 82 game season that determine everything about how far the team got, and it's there where you saw the true reflection of the player - seems to me clear that that should be the dominant factor?

fair enough, but as drza pointed out, Paul doesn't seperate himself in the RS so much from Dirk that you can make up for the gigantic gap in the playoffs. seriously, don't you think Dirk's more valuable in this case when his team wasn't high seed either and they put up a fight in the 2nd round as opposed to being embarrassed and blown out of the playoffs ?

If you don't think Paul clearly separated himself from Dirk in the regular season, think I'd expect you to go for Dirk.

Personally I had a 3 way debate for second place in the MVP that season (Kobe/Wade/Paul), and Dirk wasn't close. I know you've expressed frustration with the use of advanced stats, but honestly, if you looked at any of them, Paul was killing Dirk. PER, WS, ORtg, +/-, etc, all while leading his team to an almost identical record.

[drza]

Touche', I was speaking of his postseason stats on the whole as opposed to series-by-series. Still, though, I think my general point holds.

Dirk was good against the Spurs and was able to lead them to a series win in 5 games. Against the Nuggets his team lost, but he ramped it up to an absurd level and clearly did everything that he could as an individual to help them win. To me, that still qualifies as a pretty darn strong postseason. It's actually maybe better than the alternative (i.e. a huge Spurs series followed by a pedestrian one in a losing cause), because it shows that Dirk had that extra gear and when the team needed it he was able to access it. That it wasn't enough is less about him and more about his teammates and opponent.

I'm hesistent to reference the preceding year, but it seems applicable: Paul put up bigger numbers in the '07-08 post-season than Dirk was putting up in the loss to the Nuggets. Now - I know they are different seasons - but when talking about something as fuzzy as an "extra gear", seems odd to think Paul had it one at age 22, and no longer has it age 23.

No doubt Dirk was better in that post-season and it should be used in his favor, but it's hard for me to really look at what happened and say that Dirk proved he had a playoff ability totally alien to Paul.

Oh no, I'm not saying that Dirk had an extra gear beyond what Paul COULD have done. I'm saying that he had an extra gear beyond what Dirk had shown previously in 2009 and his postseason performance was far beyond what Paul actually DID in the playoffs. I recognize that in some ways I'm punishing Paul for getting hurt, but when comparing entire seasons against another player of Dirk's caliber I think that's justified. As someone else pointed out, timing of injuries can be significant.

[tkb]

I'm probably going to have a bias towards the player I think performed the best on the team that won the championship in this project since that's one of the things I value the most on my all time lists.

I'm not going to rank that person over other people I clearly think were superior, but winning the championship as the best player will boost a players ranking a lot on my lists.

My list looks like this from 3 and down:

3. Dwight Howard
4. Dwyane Wade
5. Chauncey Billups

Billups might be the surprise pick here over guys like Paul and Nowitzki, but I just think he had a great year and led his team beyond expectations. He also helped establish a better defensive focus in Denver, and IMO his leadership was just invaluable to that team.

My top 2 are obviously LeBron and Kobe. Will reveal ranking between those two later.

[drza]

snip

O/T, complete side note curiosity...if you don't mind me asking, what does "TKB" stand for? I only ask because every time I see your name next to your avatar pic, I mentally address you as "The Kobe Bryant" and I figure that's probably not correct...

[tkb]

My own initials

[Gongxi]

I thought it was 'torture, kill, bind".

[sp6r=underrated]

I thought it was 'torture, kill, bind".

Somebody finds murders in Wichita interesting.

[Doctor MJ]

My own initials

Funny that "The" is a first name in Norway. I'd never have guessed.

[ronnymac2]

Bastillion- I can just as well argue that Dwight caused the Magic to lose on the biggest stage. I mean, the premier C in the league going up against a 6 point, 4 rebound C in Bynum, a dumb, inconsistent player in Odom, and Mr. Softie in Gasol...and he puts up 16 ppg on less than 50% shooting (dramatic decline from regular season performance), misses clutch free throws, and averages less than 3 assists per game but 4 turnovers per game. And the Lakers offense looked just fine against Orlando, so where was Dwight's defensive impact in the series? I can argue he was outplayed by Pau Gasol.

this is all true (except your example, by my logic Kobe outplayed Dwight, not Gasol as I didn't argue Lewis outplayed LeBron... see what I mean ?), but what's more valuable:
a) advancing to the finals and disappointing
b) not advancing to the finals at all

LeBron played horrendous against Spurs in 2007, but it's not true that he'd have been more impressive hadn't he gotten to the finals at all.

Duncan and Dirk were very close.

no they weren't. Duncan was injured in the playoffs and even had one game with 2 pts or smth. Spurs pretty much collapsed on Dirk every time down, resulting in consecutive 3s and eventually Spurs loss. I don't see how you can argue for Duncan in this case, when Dirk won the playoff matchup despite having lesser help (didn't TP have couple of 40-pt games ?)

I don’t actually think Pau is better than Dwight. I was just showing that Dwight was stopped by certain competition as well. Individually stopped. I don’t blame Dwight for his team losing in the finals. I blame him for being stopped ito production.

Same thing happened vs. Boston. Boston didn’t have KG. You don’t need me to tell you what happens to Boston’s defense without KG. If anything, their problems would be exacerbated by the fact that KG is perfect against Orlando’s pick-n-rolls and Shard. Orlando didn’t have to deal with Garnett though. Yet Dwight is kept under control, and Boston takes Orlando to seven games. Perkins is a very good post defender, but c’mon.

It should be noted that Dwight was suspended in the first round last year. His team won the game in which he did not play. An elimination game vs. Philly. Just something to take note of.

I just don’t have 09 Howard on the level of LBJ/Wade/Bryant. His offensive value isn’t really close to theirs. His defensive value far exceeds any of them, but that isn’t as important as offense when you’re talking about a team’s superstar. The only way to bridge the gap is to be your team’s constant ito clutch/big-game performances. Basically be Russell-esque. But James, Wade, and Bryant (James and Bryant especially…well last year at least) beat Dwight there as well. Comfortably.

Regarding Tim and Dirk….I meant close to Paul. I understand that Tim faded down the stretch last year. That point cannot be dismissed. Dirk vs. CP3 is a good debate. I have Paul ahead because I think he was the better player. His playoff performance was affected by poor teammates and injury imo. He was just worn out by the end, and I really believe his teammates suck. If people have Dirk over Paul because of the playoffs, I don’t think it’s criminal.

[drza]

My own initials

Funny that "The" is a first name in Norway. I'd never have guessed.

On a similar note, you've always been "Doctor Magic Johnson". Correct?