Retro POY '01-02 (ends Thu morning PST)

[mysticbb]

I didn't say it was, but Dirk has always been a below average defender for his position so his impact is even less than guys like Kobe and McGrady who can at least be disruptive.

Well, I would argue Nowitzki was always an average defender, but whatever. And I can imagine that it is hard to accept, but the data clearly shows that wing defenders don't have such a big impact on defense. We can just take the closest possible example here in 2002/03. The Lakers defense improved from 106.5 to 105.9 with Bryant on the court, the Mavericks defense improved from 107.9 to 101.6. As you can see there is a clear difference between the Mavericks with and without Nowitzki. In fact the Mavericks defense with Nowitzki was one of the best in the league. What was different? The defensive rebounding, Nowitzki improved the Mavericks defensive rebounding. And there is a clear correlation between DRB% and DRtg, the highest correlation btw. of all stats in the boxscore. The 2nd highest is the own turnovers. Why? Because after a turnover the other team scores on a higher efficiency. And yes, Nowitzki's low amount of turnover contributing to that more than blocked shots or steals. I can understand that most people don't want to accept that, but the data for the last 30+ years in the NBA are clearly show those relationships.

Say what you will about being overrated, but Kobe's defense was very good during the 3-peat.

I never denied that, on the contrary I actually made a post about that after someone said that Bryant's defense wasn't great or something like that in the 2002/03 thread.

The Mavs were one of the worst defensive teams in the league as well, so how can any reasonable argument be made for Dirk on the defensive end?

Don't know what I should say about that, because I actually put that into my thinking and have Bryant ahead of Nowitzki at #3 in this season and Nowitzki at #5.

There is just no way in the world that Dirk had a bigger impact on the defensive end than Kobe. Grabbing more rebounds doesn't mean he has a bigger impact. Go watch some of those playoff series and see how he is hounding ball handlers (disrupting offensive sets), cutting off passing lanes, doubling, etc. Dirk does none of that. He gets rebounds as a result of being tall and playing closer to the basket, and that's about it.

Yes, all that is true, but that doesn't change the facts here. I pointed out an example and explained it. I don't make that kind of stuff up, I don't accomplish anything by that.

It's hard to accept because it conflicts greatly with observation.

I can understand that point, for sure. I also was proven wrong a couple of years ago when I really though Allen Iverson would be the best player in the league. Just by my observation he played incredible, until I really understand what a defensive concept is and how that of the 76ers worked while Larry Brown coached them.

I'm might very well get waived from RealGM if I see people trying to make those same arguments for Iverson in the coming seasons as a way to justify him as a competent defender or worthy of a top 3 spot.

Well, there is a difference between Nowitzki gets some steals and blocked shots by challenging his man and Iverson is getting steals by roaming around. ;)

Does he penetrate and get his teammates dunks and wide open 3-pointers? No, he's mostly out on the perimeter, because that's what he does.

No, Nowitzki is doing that via spacing, setting screens and double teams. And yes, watch the game a little bit more carefully, Bryant wouldn't get to the rim, if it weren't for Shaq's screens (or now Gasol's or Odom's). You really need to understand the fundamentals of game better, otherwise you will continue to think that only wing players with the ball in their hands can be a crucial part of an offense. But in fact Nowitzki had the HIGHER OnCourt ORtg in comparison to Bryant over the last couple of years. Nowitzki also has the higher individual ORtg than Bryant in both regular and playoffs. The most important parts on offense is efficient scoring and taking care of the basketball, Bryant is doing both not as good as Nowitzki.

Having said that, he picked up his play big time in the post-season, so he has a reasonable argument for being top 5. I don't think he deserves to be placed ahead of Kobe or McGrady, but he might have a legit argument over Kidd.

I don't think that McGrady deserves a spot in the Top5 this season. He just wasn't that good as the season before and the with Duncan, O'Neal and Bryant better than McGrady, I picked Kidd and Nowitzki for the #4 and #5.

[tkb]

1. Shaquille O'Neal
2. Tim Duncan
3. Kobe Bryant
4. Tracy McGrady
5. Jason Kidd

[Sedale Threatt]

I'm almost wishing I could abstain here. I'm probably going to end up voting for Shaq primarily because I'm a Laker fan, but there is a pretty strong case for Duncan. Really, really strong. If I had no ties, I'd probably go Duncan, and I wish that wasn't a factor.

[mysticbb]

Fair enough. I looked at their normal oRtg, in addition to taking into account that Nash scores very efficiently and creates for his teammates in making my judgement.

Well, Nash didn't have that kind of impact on those Mavericks teams, because he never had such an opportunity for that. Finley demanded the ball in his hand and Nowitzki was just their best isolation player. It is also the case that Nash raised his scoring efficiency on the Suns, I think the reason is more confidence in his abilities.

I can't just look at oRtg by itself and come to any conclusions, otherwise I'd have to accept that Amare has similar impact to Nash on offense, which is kind of absurd.

It is absurd, because it is also not true. Stoudemire clearly benifits from Nash more than vice versa. Nash is just allowed to run the show in Phoenix, something he wasn't allowed to do as much in Dallas. He had is games in Dallas too, but mostly the offense went through Nowitzki or Finley (the latter was somewhat stupid, but whatever).

They are well behind the Suns though on average, despite having more offensive weapons or guys that can create for themselves.

I showed already in another thread that especially a player like Terry increased his scoring efficiency with Nowitzki a lot. Terry is the guy who benifits most when Nowitzki is setting a screen on the perimeter. That gives Terry a lot of open looks. Well, to see how that works watch nearly every 4th quarter of the Mavericks since 2004/05. The high pick&roll by Nowitzki and Terry is their main weapon in clutch situations. If Nowitzki would get an assists for every successful screen, he would have a couple of triple doubles already. ;)

[semi-sentient]

^^^ Good point about Dirk setting screens. That's something I overlooked and doesn't show up in any stat sheets, much like "hockey assists" in the triangle.

[ronnymac2]

^^^All right. Seems like a really odd weight to put on regular season games played, but if that is your criteria, then okay.

Ronny, how do you balance it?

HCA carries a certain amount of value, so your player would have to do enough to 1) make the playoffs and then 2) overcome HCA, no? (Or at least overcome HCA, all things being equal, against the specific player your comparing him to...)

Well, Shaq's team had HCA, and beat Duncan's team.

Before I go on....I'm not penalizing Duncan for the Spurs not winning the second round series. I'm not giving Shaq the edge because of the head-to-head win of Shaq's team. The Lakers were the better team.

I just think the best player in the league should be rewarded for being the best player in the league. 15 games missed against the grizzlies and the hornets and the knicks isn't something I give a **** about (I wasn't using actual teams....just making a point).



Bastillion....Duncan played really well in that series, but when Shaq and Duncan guarded one another (and they did so in this series more than in any other I remember), Shaq got big stops. I'm pretty sure Shaq's defense in closing gm 5, especially on Duncan, was crucial. I just watched that game a few weeks ago, so my memory shouldn't be that fuzzy.

Duncan was pretty much guarded by Horry and Samaki Walker (uggghh) for large portions of that series. Shaq was guarded by Malik Rose, the Admiral, and Kevin Willis, with Duncan providing help defense (Duncan came and bothered Shaq's hooks and shots while the primary defender held their ground and made Shaq actually shoot the ball instead of dunk).

[Sedale Threatt]

That's something a lot of people forget. Having Duncan around to shade into the paint was a huge reason why the Spurs usually defended Shaq well. Robinson head up, then Duncan a couple of steps away -- not a bad combo.

[bastillon]

Bastillion....Duncan played really well in that series, but when Shaq and Duncan guarded one another (and they did so in this series more than in any other I remember), Shaq got big stops. I'm pretty sure Shaq's defense in closing gm 5, especially on Duncan, was crucial. I just watched that game a few weeks ago, so my memory shouldn't be that fuzzy.

Duncan was pretty much guarded by Horry and Samaki Walker (uggghh) for large portions of that series. Shaq was guarded by Malik Rose, the Admiral, and Kevin Willis, with Duncan providing help defense (Duncan came and bothered Shaq's hooks and shots while the primary defender held their ground and made Shaq actually shoot the ball instead of dunk).

he didn't play in that series as far as I know. Mark Bryant replaced him (ughhhhhhhh)

also in the game I watched it was Duncan who got crucial stops on Shaq, but didn't have enough help from his teammates. I mean look at those numbers head2head. these are NOT minor differences. Duncan vastly outplayed him in that series and it's not really arguable given the big, big seperation. +8 PPG, +5 RPG, +1.5 APG, +4% TS... that's borderline dominance and I'm being nice to Shaq right now. rarely if ever the gap between two elite players is so large during the course of the series.

if Kobe wasn't there to close out those games for Shaq and Duncan would've won the series would you even consider defending Shaq ? you'd have vastly lesser numbers in a losing effort. think about it for a second and maybe that's affecting your judgement (and it shouldn't because you said team results don't matter).

timely contributions, whatever, the gap is too large for me to simply consider this matchup close. Duncan was better player when they faced each other and had much better RS as well. I don't see how it's Shaq for so many people.

[mysticbb]

^^^ Good point about Dirk setting screens. That's something I overlooked and doesn't show up in any stat sheets, much like "hockey assists" in the triangle. :P

Or the screens in a TPO. ;) Basically the TPO is nothing else than a specific algorithm of screens and cuts to give the ball handler the most possible opportunities for a pass (which should obviously result into a good look at the end). It is rather simple once you can see the pattern.

[sp6r=underrated]

Bastillon

The Admiral did miss the first two games of the series, but he did play in the final three games. He played a lot in game 4 but only played around 20 in games 3 and 5. He was totally ineffective though outside game 4 and contributed little. It was a courageous effort on his part to try to play, but his back was just shot.

[bastillon]

Bastillon

The Admiral did miss the first two games of the series, but he did play in the final three games. He played a lot in game 4 but only played around 20 in games 3 and 5. He was totally ineffective though outside game 4 and contributed little. It was a courageous effort on his part to try to play, but his back was just shot.

ok. I know that he had the same injury Robin Lopez has now. pinched nerve in the back and didn't feel his legs.

[sp6r=underrated]

Bastillon

The Admiral did miss the first two games of the series, but he did play in the final three games. He played a lot in game 4 but only played around 20 in games 3 and 5. He was totally ineffective though outside game 4 and contributed little. It was a courageous effort on his part to try to play, but his back was just shot.

ok. I know that he had the same injury Robin Lopez has now. pinched nerve in the back and didn't feel his legs.

It was honestly kind of sad watching him play in that series. Here was a guy who was one of the most athletic 7ft of all time and he could barely do anything athletically on the court.

[Doctor MJ]

Extending the deadline to this. People requested an extension on the previous thread, and this one's already rushed with the new schedule. The next thread will still go Wed-Fri.

[bastillon]

he could barely move before game 1, so no surprise here. hopefully Rolo is healthy enough to upset those Lakers

[sp6r=underrated]

he could barely move before game 1, so no surprise here. hopefully Rolo is healthy enough to upset those Lakers

I would love to see the Suns win. The weird thing is I think the lakers are big favorites over Phoenix, but I think the Suns would have a better chance in the finals.

[ronnymac2]

David played limited minutes in a few games. I forgot about Mark Bryant though. He was the primary defender on O'neal, too.

Yeah, as was usual, Kobe's large advantage on the perimeter was the key to the Lakers beating the Spurs. That's clear.

I don't know. The stats favor Duncan, but they weren't the primary guys on one another. Shaq had another guy he could consistently rely on in this series, which is why the Lakers won. You take Kobe out of the equation, the series gets even tighter (edge to the Spurs considering they were deeper and better built if you take Bryant away from L.A.), but Shaq's numbers would go up since LA would rely on him exclusively.

Shaq doesn't have an enormous edge on the Spurs frontcourt. He more or less equalizes things impact-wise, and Kobe kills them off, giving LA the upper hand.

[Doctor MJ]

I'd like to see more discussion on Garnett. Clearly he improved significantly in '02-03, but I'm rather surprised he isn't getting more mentions than he is particularly because there's actually less depth this year.

[bastillon]

I'm surprised too. 21/12/5, 2nd in DPOY/1st all-D and led his team to 50 wins without spectacular help... all while having limited impact because of playing at SF and in inept defensive scheme. I think this is worth top5, especially the way some players have been playing that year. Kobe was totally off in the playoffs, T-Mac was playing injured in the playoffs and wouldn't have been able to keep himself on the court in following rounds had they gone past the first, Kidd obviously is just much worse as a player.

people are taking for granted leading the team to 50 wins. it's a tough achievement. for example Karl Malone was around 50 in his prime despite having all-star caliber teammate in Stockton, vastly superior coaching and better secondary players as well (Jeff Malone/Bailey/Eaton). Oscar has done it once in his career. Jerry West couple of times, but alongside another HoF teammate. T-Mac never did it (?) yet he's being ranked higher.

it's tough to lead your team to 50W season when you don't have competent supporting cast. there is absolutely no way I would pick Kobe, T-Mac or Kidd (!!!!!) over Garnett for that year (meaning in a draft). he's still a great two-way big that doesn't miss any games and fits well in every team. we've seen other guys by themselves without great support and they never matched Garnett's 02. I don't think they were as good as players either. at some point it all comes down to your abilities and Garnett didn't just become super-dominant player in 04. he was almost there in 02. it's not as much KG that changed, but mainly the circumstances. seems pretty obvious that playing full-time PF helped him tremendously and having better teammates did even more.

anyway, my final list:
1.Timmy
2.Shaq
3.KG
4.T-Mac
5.Kobe

it was very hard to rank Kobe vs McGrady. T-Mac was playing injured and how his body would respond to this later could be questioned, but nonetheless Kobe doesn't present THAT much value in the postseason either as I mainly think of him as a scorer and his efficiency went to hell that year. T-Mac on the other hand could play more games if he didn't have to carry so much load in the RS.

McGrady's injury is the only thing that made it close for me. I think T-Mac was clearly more dominant player and Kobe gets overrated because he has prime Shaq on his team. there would be no discussion for TOP3 POY otherwise. I value Tmac's driving more than Kobe's jumpshooting. they both did other things as well, but that's the main difference. I believe it's easier to build around T-Mac in 2002. I couldn't imagine Bryant carrying his own team deep into the playoffs with the way he played.

[mysticbb]

I'm surprised too. 21/12/5, 2nd in DPOY/1st all-D and led his team to 50 wins without spectacular help...

And then came the playoffs and Garnett got his ass kicked in the 1st round by Nowitzki. ;)

[Doctor MJ]

people are taking for granted leading the team to 50 wins. it's a tough achievement. for example Karl Malone was around 50 in his prime despite having all-star caliber teammate in Stockton, vastly superior coaching and better secondary players as well (Jeff Malone/Bailey/Eaton). Oscar has done it once in his career. Jerry West couple of times, but alongside another HoF teammate. T-Mac never did it (?) yet he's being ranked higher.

I think it should be mentioned that bigger leagues are going to tend to result in many more teams hitting certain thresholds. I don't consider Oscar/West really relevant here, but still 50 wins in modern times, not so easy to do.