Retro POY '85-86 (Voting Complete)

[Dr Positivity]

Looks like Magic is going to easily pass Duncan and Shaq. I didn't expect that to happen. I guess even with his shortened career he still had as many top 5 vote worthy ones as anyone and almost as many .500+ years as anyone. By my count he'll be on 11 ballots if he gets on his rookie year, and all but his rookie year should get a lot of points. Jordan is only on 10 ballots right now with his first season pending... Duncan had 7 .600+ ones, 1 .100+ one, and 4 sub .100 ones

If it wasn't for the HIV, Magic could've honestly topped this contest

[sp6r=underrated]

Looks like Magic is going to easily pass Duncan and Shaq. I didn't expect that to happen. I guess even with his shortened career he still had as many top 5 vote worthy ones as anyone and almost as many .500+ years as anyone. By my count he'll be on 11 ballots if he gets on his rookie year, and all but his rookie year should get a lot of points. Jordan is only on 10 ballots right now with his first season pending... Duncan had 7 .600+ ones, 1 .100+ one, and 4 sub .100 ones

If it wasn't for the HIV, Magic could've honestly topped this contest

I agree he will be passing Shaq and TD fairly easy, he still wouldn't have been able to catch His Airness though. F K. Malone for costing us a few great years of Magic. He came back fat, out of shape, 4 years removed from the game and he was still an impact player. Heretic view, but I think Magic would be regarded as better than KAJ if he never was forced into retirement.

Early 80s Magic should be an interesting case about how much deference people pay to awards in their voting.

He has 5 seasons left were he can get votes, 81 he has no shot, considering all that happened.

In 80, He had that epic finals game, but he didn't even rank top ten in MVP voting or make a All-NBA team.

82 is another RS, were he didn't do so well in RS recognition.

Anyway, I'm looking forward to Moses and Erving beginning their assent up the ladder.

[Dr Positivity]

Site updated: http://www.dolem.com/poy

No changes in the top 10 this time around. Bird will surpass LeBron and Robinson after the next round of voting, and Magic will pass Malone.

Code: Select all

1.  Michael Jordan     9.288
2.  Tim Duncan         6.153
3.  Shaquille O'Neal   5.910
4.  Karl Malone        4.649
5.  Magic Johnson      4.502
6.  Hakeem Olajuwon    4.376
7.  Kobe Bryant        3.658
8.  Kevin Garnett      3.388
9.  David Robinson     2.431
10. LeBron James       2.267

Bird is doing worse in this than I expected. We are coming up on some of his big years but I do not think he can catch Magic.

I think Bird will be alright, he's going to dominate for the next period. I'm guessing it goes something like 85 is .800+, 84 is 1.000, 83 is .450ish, 82 is .680, 81 is 1.000, 80 is .350. That'd give him 4.280 from this point on, added to the 2.200 he has right now which would take him to 6.400+, and safely in the top 6. Could be close with Duncan though.

He's not catching Magic though you're right, Magic's a powerhouse in this. He's going to put up an amazingly high ranking considering a) HIV and b) Only one #1 year (it would appear)

[sp6r=underrated]

Site updated: http://www.dolem.com/poy

No changes in the top 10 this time around. Bird will surpass LeBron and Robinson after the next round of voting, and Magic will pass Malone.

Code: Select all

1.  Michael Jordan     9.288
2.  Tim Duncan         6.153
3.  Shaquille O'Neal   5.910
4.  Karl Malone        4.649
5.  Magic Johnson      4.502
6.  Hakeem Olajuwon    4.376
7.  Kobe Bryant        3.658
8.  Kevin Garnett      3.388
9.  David Robinson     2.431
10. LeBron James       2.267

Bird is doing worse in this than I expected. We are coming up on some of his big years but I do not think he can catch Magic.

I think Bird will be alright, he's going to dominate for the next period. I'm guessing it goes something like 85 is .800+, 84 is 1.000, 83 is .450ish, 82 is .680, 81 is 1.000, 80 is .350. That'd give him 4.280 from this point on, added to the 2.200 he has right now which would take him to 6.400+, and safely in the top 6. Could be close with Duncan though.

He's not catching Magic though you're right, Magic's a powerhouse in this. He's going to put up an amazingly high ranking considering a) HIV and b) Only one #1 year (it would appear)

I think you are over-estimating how well Bird will do over the next 6 years. I looked through the season section on Dolem

2nd Place does roughly .650
3rd Place does roughly .430

Let's say Bird avg. 2.5, which is how I think he will over next few years, he isn't in range of Shaq.

[shawngoat23]

Hey semi-sentient & Dr. MJ, I think there's a problem with the 1985-86 results. There are no 5th place votes included at all. I'm guessing there's a spreadsheet error somewhere, because I know I gave McHale a top 5 vote and he's on the board with 0.000 share.

[Doctor MJ]

I think Bird will be alright, he's going to dominate for the next period. I'm guessing it goes something like 85 is .800+, 84 is 1.000, 83 is .450ish, 82 is .680, 81 is 1.000, 80 is .350. That'd give him 4.280 from this point on, added to the 2.200 he has right now which would take him to 6.400+, and safely in the top 6. Could be close with Duncan though.

He's not catching Magic though you're right, Magic's a powerhouse in this. He's going to put up an amazingly high ranking considering a) HIV and b) Only one #1 year (it would appear)

I think Bird will be alright too, though no idea whether that will mean he's safely in the top 6 - really doubt he'll be unanimous in 1981 though, since I don't expect to vote for him #1 there.

[Gongxi]

Just looking at my own tentative rankings that go through his rookie year, I have Bird in the territory of Karl Malone. Now, granted, Malone worked out better in my own rankings than I thought he would, but Bird will still finish comfortably behind Shaq and Magic, both of whom are comfortably behind Jordan.

I'm also not feeling a #1 for Bird in 81 at all. He could easily fall to 4th that year.

[bastillon]

man, these early 80s are really poor. there's Magic, Bird, couple of years from Moses... and nobody else.

I don't know how Hakeem ended up being 3rd that year. I wonder how many guys here watched those playoffs recently. Rockets had no point guard, poor ballhandlers and still got to the finals and were very competitive against stacked Celtics team. it wasn't because of Robert freaking Reid. Magic on the other hand, had pretty easily much better team than Olajuwon and failed to go through him. at the time Hakeem wasn't perceived as top-notch player yet, because people thought Sampson had a great impact on those Rockets as well... now, knowing the history, overrating Ralph shouldn't be the case. aside from those two, it was an awful team which consisted of drug addicts, nobody who can handle the ball or throw a good entry pass, not to mention run the offense.

but this all-time list clearly shows what's wrong with realGM - Karl Malone is better than Hakeem here and they were never really close in terms of impact, which could be easily seen in their h2h matchups... don't get me wrong, I respect Karl and all, but Dream is better at pretty much everything except forcing contact.

[semi-sentient]

Bird is doing worse in this than I expected. We are coming up on some of his big years but I do not think he can catch Magic.

It's not surprising to me. He really only has 9 years where he can be argued top 5 since he fell off after 87-88 (injury). In 2 of those years, so far, Magic has ranked higher. What hurts Bird is that he was not getting ranked from 88-89 onward, whereas Magic had 3 consecutive 2nd place finishes, and Bird never ranked higher than Magic until 85-86. What also hurts Bird is the fact that his play almost always falls off in the playoffs. This is why, to me at least, Magic separates himself as an all-time great. He always brought it in the post-season (outside of 83-84 where he choked in the Finals).

The next few years are going to be interesting because both players were great during this stretch. I currently have Magic as the #1 guy in 84-85 because Bird fell off a bit in the post-season, and Bird comes back and takes the #1 spot in 83-84 (the "Tragic Johnson" Finals). Magic will be above Bird in 81-82, and then they once again swap places in 80-81 (thanks to Magic's injury). That leaves 79-80, which favors Magic as well.

Anyway, here's some numbers for these two guys...

Regular Season

Code: Select all

          GP  PTS   TS%   REB   AST   STL   BLK   TOV   PER   WS
==================================================================
LB 79-80  82  21.3  .538  10.4   4.5  1.7   0.6   3.2   20.5  11.2
MJ 79-80  77  18.0  .602   7.7   7.3  2.4   0.5   4.0   20.6  10.5

LB 80-81  82  21.2  .528  10.9   5.5  2.0   0.8   3.5   19.9  10.8
MJ 80-81  37  21.6  .582   8.6   8.6  3.4   0.7   3.9   25.7   6.4

LB 81-82  77  22.9  .557  10.9   5.8  1.9   0.9   3.3   22.6  12.5
MJ 81-82  78  18.6  .590   9.6   9.5  2.7   0.4   3.7   22.9  12.9

LB 82-83  79  23.6  .561  11.0   5.8  1.9   0.9   3.0   24.1  14.0
MJ 82-83  79  16.8  .603   8.6  10.5  2.2   0.6   3.8   23.0  12.5

LB 83-84  79  24.2  .552  10.1   6.6  1.8   0.9   3.0   24.2  13.6
MJ 83-84  67  17.6  .628   7.3  13.1  2.2   0.7   4.6   22.6  10.2

LB 84-85  80  28.7  .585  10.5   6.6  1.6   1.2   3.1   26.5  15.7
MJ 84-85  77  18.3  .637   6.2  12.6  1.5   0.3   4.0   23.2  12.7

LB 85-86  82  25.8  .580   9.8   6.8  2.0   0.6   3.2   25.6  15.8
MJ 85-86  72  18.8  .610   5.9  12.6  1.6   0.2   3.8   24.0  12.1

LB 86-87  74  28.1  .612   9.2   7.6  1.8   0.9   3.2   26.4  15.2
MJ 86-87  80  23.9  .602   6.3  12.2  1.7   0.5   3.8   27.0  15.9

LB 87-88  76  29.9  .608   9.3   6.1  1.6   0.8   2.8   27.8  15.0
MJ 87-88  72  19.6  .581   6.2  11.9  1.6   0.2   3.7   23.1  10.9

Post Season

Code: Select all

          GP  PTS   TS%   REB   AST   STL   BLK   TOV   PER   WS
==================================================================
LB 79-80   9  21.3  .511  11.2   4.7  1.6   0.9   3.7   18.3  1.1
MJ 79-80  16  18.3  .596  10.5   9.4  3.1   0.4   4.1   22.1  2.8

LB 80-81  17  21.9  .532  14.0   6.1  2.3   1.0   3.7   21.8  3.1
MJ 80-81   3  17.0  .441  13.7   7.0  2.7   1.0   3.7   17.0  0.2

LB 81-82  12  17.8  .474  12.5   5.6  1.9   1.4   3.2   17.9  1.6
MJ 81-82  14  17.4  .614  11.3   9.3  2.9   0.2   3.1   22.5  2.7

LB 82-83   6  20.5  .478  12.5   6.8  2.2   0.5   3.2   20.3  0.7
MJ 82-83  15  17.9  .555   8.5  12.8  2.3   0.8   4.3   20.6  2.1

LB 83-84  23  27.5  .607  11.0   5.9  2.3   1.2   3.8   26.3  4.7
MJ 83-84  21  18.2  .601   6.6  13.5  2.0   1.0   3.8   22.3  3.5

LB 84-85  20  26.0  .536   9.1   5.8  1.7   0.9   2.9   20.9  2.6
MJ 84-85  19  17.5  .599   7.1  15.2  1.7   0.2   4.0   22.3  3.0

LB 85-86  18  25.9  .615   9.3   8.2  2.1   0.6   2.6   23.9  4.2
MJ 85-86  14  21.6  .599   7.1  15.1  1.9   0.1   3.2   25.6  3.0

LB 86-87  23  27.0  .577  10.0   7.2  1.2   0.8   3.1   21.8  3.2
MJ 86-87  18  21.8  .607   7.7  12.2  1.7   0.4   2.8   26.2  3.7

LB 87-88  17  24.5  .538   8.8   6.8  2.1   0.8   2.9   20.2  2.4
MJ 87-88  24  19.9  .609   5.4  12.6  1.4   0.2   3.5   22.9  4.0

Hey semi-sentient & Dr. MJ, I think there's a problem with the 1985-86 results. There are no 5th place votes included at all. I'm guessing there's a spreadsheet error somewhere, because I know I gave McHale a top 5 vote and he's on the board with 0.000 share.

Fixed. I forgot to punch in the 5th place votes for some reason.

[shawngoat23]

Fixed. I forgot to punch in the 5th place votes for some reason.

I noticed that the 4th and 5th place columns are identical, and that McHale is still on the list despite apparently having a slate of zeroes, so I tried to figure out why.

It looks like you accidentally typed in the 5th place votes into the 4th place columns yesterday, and then ended up reduplicating them today. I just took a quick glance at McHale's votes, as it seemed the easiest way to find out what was up, and indeed, JordansBulls, shawngoat23, penbeast0, Mean_Streets, and mysticbb all voted for him in 4th place (but curiously enough, he didn't receive any 5th place votes).

[semi-sentient]

OK, this time it's really fixed... lol.

Good catch.

[Doctor MJ]

throw a good entry pass, not to mention run the offense.

but this all-time list clearly shows what's wrong with realGM - Karl Malone is better than Hakeem here and they were never really close in terms of impact, which could be easily seen in their h2h matchups... don't get me wrong, I respect Karl and all, but Dream is better at pretty much everything except forcing contact.

While Malone did do surprisingly well (and I'll be reviewing my votes later on because it seems too much), that Malone beat Hakeem doesn't say anything necessarily about RealGM. Much bigger factor is probably the format we're using.

[ShaqAttac]

mj isn't top 5 here????

[Dutchball97]

mj isn't top 5 here????

This is the season MJ played 18 regular season games and 3 play-off games. He's not only not top 5, he didn't receive a single vote nor should he have.

[ShaqAttac]

mj isn't top 5 here????

This is the season MJ played 18 regular season games and 3 play-off games. He's not only not top 5, he didn't receive a single vote nor should he have.

idk. i feel id take him over wilky for po's alone

tho idrg why u got mad bout 85-87 hakeem then. wasnt the bird god game the highlight for early mj

[HeartBreakKid]

mj isn't top 5 here????

Because he had a 60 point game?

Come on dude, MJ barely played this season.

He played less than 20 games and his RS stats were terrible by POY standards.

[ShaqAttac]

mj isn't top 5 here????

Because he had a 60 point game?

Come on dude, MJ barely played this season.

He played less than 20 games and his RS stats were terrible by POY standards.

i meeeen the point is da ring right. u tellin me wilky gives u a better shot

[Dutchball97]

mj isn't top 5 here????

This is the season MJ played 18 regular season games and 3 play-off games. He's not only not top 5, he didn't receive a single vote nor should he have.

idk. i feel id take him over wilky for po's alone

tho idrg why u got mad bout 85-87 hakeem then. wasnt the bird god game the highlight for early mj

Why does everyone keep thinking I was mad? I just disagreed with the statement Hakeem was better in 85-87 because I think Jordan was slightly better in both 85 and 87 and probably would've been better in 86 if healthy too. It's close though so I could see it the other way but I simply wanted to know why they were all so 100% confident in Hakeem being better at first.

[ShaqAttac]

This is the season MJ played 18 regular season games and 3 play-off games. He's not only not top 5, he didn't receive a single vote nor should he have.

idk. i feel id take him over wilky for po's alone

tho idrg why u got mad bout 85-87 hakeem then. wasnt the bird god game the highlight for early mj

Why does everyone keep thinking I was mad? I just disagreed with the statement Hakeem was better in 85-87 because I think Jordan was slightly better in both 85 and 87 and probably would've been better in 86 if healthy too. It's close though so I could see it the other way but I simply wanted to know why they were all so 100% confident in Hakeem being better at first.

boi. kd just said that **** casual while talking bout other stuff. u then went full rings and started talking **** about wowwy. how u think it looks when mans is talking about other **** and then u go all BUT WHY U TRYNA PUSH WOWWY. no one was pushin no wowwwy. u just made that the thing for no reason

[Owly]

mj isn't top 5 here????

This is the season MJ played 18 regular season games and 3 play-off games. He's not only not top 5, he didn't receive a single vote nor should he have.

idk. i feel id take him over wilky for po's alone

mj isn't top 5 here????

Because he had a 60 point game?

Come on dude, MJ barely played this season.

He played less than 20 games and his RS stats were terrible by POY standards.

i meeeen the point is da ring right. u tellin me wilky gives u a better shot

Not sure one should feel confident one's team is making the playoffs if the best player is playing 451 minutes. Unless you're curving for this being an era where over 2/3s of the teams make it. And if you're relying on that then your team probably doesn't have a shot anyway.

Then too we don't know how MJ's health holds up in a longer run. He was still sub-20 minutes in all games through until 28th March and sub-30 until 5th April, with the second highest total RS game post injury at 33. Honestly as a GM, with MJ at that age there's a responsibility not to push and to keep him safe.

It's not even as though people didn't mention him.

So it seems hard to get to a process where a player playing 451 minutes not ranking in Player of the Year award is (a) "????" level shocking, (b) something worth raising that shock with, circa 12 1/2 years after the fact when most voters can no longer engage, without really adding compelling new insight/evidence that grants a fresh perspective.