Retro POY '79-80 (Voting Complete)

[Sedale Threatt]

I see your point True. Good post.

[CellarDoor]

1. KAJ
2. Dr J
3. Bird
4. Moses
5. Magic

Flip Moses for Gervin and you've got my list.

KAJ
Dr J
Bird
Gervin
Magic

[ronnymac2]

I dig your avatar, BTW. Hippos fascinate me.

Haha same.


ElGee's argument about Magic being a peripheral player (using his definition of peripheral, which is key) convinced me that Magic probably couldn't be the lead dog on a team just yet. However, I'm not sure if that demotes him below Bird. I'm not sure if Bird could do that at this point either. Many people, myself included, commented in the 1981 and 1982 threads about how Bird prefers to do his work off the ball instead of using isos. He liked doing things in the flow, being part of a collective team effort. Bird liked doing peripheral work. Which is great. It's a plus that one is able to take advantage of their situation; it shows the player is opportunistic, a valuable quality for a champion to have.

I know Bird led the turnaround. I know he showed well in MVP voting. He's probably the most talented and most productive person on the team, and that likely caused the turnaround, because when one guy can do that type of work, all the other guys move down a slot in the team pecking order, making them more effective. Odom is not a second option. But as option 3b, he looks like a championship level player. Maybe Nixon and Wilkes couldn't be second and third best players. Maybe they needed to be third and fourth best on the team for the team to be more successful. Magic's presence allows this to happen.

I'm really not sure about Magic vs. Bird. Both rookies, both played the same roles for their teams. Bird gets the tiebreaker in the REG SEA for recognition and stats. He also had a good playoffs for a rookie. As did Magic. However, both showed their rookie faults in the playoffs in big ways. The thing is, Magic wins tiebreakers with his finals mvp and title, AND he had a GOAT finish.

I have to take Moses over both of them. This is a weak peak year for Moses, but even if we lower that to saying it is just Malone in his prime, I'd probably still take that over rookie Bird or rookie Magic.

If Malone's negatives didn't effect anybody's feelings towards him from 81-83, they shouldn't effect anybody's feelings towards him in 1980. His team not being able to compensate this year shouldn't effect him as an individual this year.

This IS peak Gervin, but I don't think he's all that close to Prime Moses, so he may not be able to take down the rookies.

Overall accolades/stats/team success don't give George a real edge. He had a good playoffs, but I see that as more of a "do what you're supposed to do," as Houston's defense wasn't all that great. Still gets credit for it though, obviously.

What do I want?

A super-scorer who doesn't really have the ball-handling/playmaking ability to be a true offensive anchor, but still plays off the ball a lot, opening things up for teammates a la Kevin Durant/Dirk Nowitzki? He's average or below average in everything else.

OR

My choice of either a rookie forward (can play either forward position) who gives me 20/10 with solid defense and creative passing (reading defenses still needs practice) who spreads the floor, or a rookie guard who can probably play four positions effectively, gives me the ability to play fast while still being able to hit the glass, a creative playmaker (turnover-prone), a mismatch, and an efficient scoring option (lacks range, despite game six).

Gervin didn't wow me. If he was average in everything else, I'd say okay. But when you're as bad as a rookie on defense and you don't really create for others yourself or produce rebounding that much, I'm not sure what your advantage is. They still get docked for being rookies, but they both did some special things this year, and Gervin didn't belt one out of the park with a deep playoff run or MVP or historic season (though 33 ppg is excellent).

I'm taking Bird and Magic over Gervin, but barely. I'm taking Bird over Magic. If DRMJ doesn't take this down until sunday, that really may change.

Final Rankings:

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Julius Erving
Moses Malone
Larry Bird
Magic Johnson

HM: George Gervin, Marques Johnson.

[Manuel Calavera]

I've got:

1. Kareem
2. Erving
3. Bird
4. Gervin
5. Marques Johnson

[An Unbiased Fan]

1) KAJ
2) Dr. J
3) Gervin
4) Bird
5) Moses

[semi-sentient]

Just in case the votes have been tallied, I've updated mine (for the final time) and swapped Bird (3) and Magic (4).

[ElGee]

My 1980 POY Ballot:

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2. Julius Erving
3. Larry Bird
4. Moses Malone
5. Magic Johnson

Kareem comfortably at No. 1. Erving very comfortably at No. 2. Bird fairly comfortably at No. 3. Moses goes next, still providing a lot for me with his typical rebounding/scoring effort.

Moses is definitely in that next group though (4-7). His jump shot wasn't as developed, and that probably contributed to a decreased scoring rate (slight dip from 81, considerable from 82) and decreased relative TS% (dipped considerably from 81). Still, with that said, in 1980 I'd take him over the Johnson's and Gervin.

The final spot I've gone around on the carousel all week. It can pretty much go any way. Ice's scoring? Marques' all-around play? Magic's increased contributions throughout the playoffs?

First of all, Marques' playoffs weren't really bad. He was going against an elite defense in Seattle and (from what I've read) I believe DJ was sticking him pretty hard. But for me, TO's are worse than misses -- at least a miss has a decent chance at an offensive rebound, TO's don't and they increase opponent's offensive efficiency -- which means his 8 turnovers in 7 games offset his decrease in FG%. I feel a little like Mufasa here, but this group (or websites?) has a habit of overvaluing TS% and it seems would rather have Marques turn it over 3x as much but have a 55% TS%, even though I'd argue that would be less efficient offense. Then again, without having seen G7, I'd still want something a little nicer than 9-25.

Gervin is absolutely one-dimensional, but it's the best kind of one-dimensional. He's a scorer who seemingly doesn't pilfer possessions by doing the bulk of his work within the flow of the game. Would I rather have an offensive player creating more offense, like prime Bird, Jordan, Kobe, James, etc.? Absolutely. But Gervin isn't up against those types of players.

And Magic, who by the end of the season was clearly a better NBA player than he was in the winter. But I've always taken players who were offensive focal points over supporting actors in that role. How to factor all that in?

If there were no postseason, I'd probably go 1. Marques 2. Gervin 3. Magic. And utlimately, I can go a bunch of different ways here in terms of tiebreakers. I'm concerned about exposure bias hurting Marques and Gervin as well. Oh well.

But it comes down to the way I think about this project: "Who was the best player for that season?" I've "penalized" players who didn't have playoff experience and it showed. I've penalized players who have skill-set deficiencies that prevent them from excelling in the postseason environment. In this case, I'm going to take Magic Johnson over the other two because he was a rookie, and by the end of the 1980 season he was clearly playing better than the other two. In a sense, I'm weighting postseason more than usual in this case because Magic's growth is so relevant to "how well Magic Johnson played in the 1980 season."

[mysticbb]

Vote:

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2. Julius Erving
3. Larry Bird
4. Moses Malone
5. Magic Johnson

[Doctor MJ]

79-80 Results

Code: Select all

Player                1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Pts   POY Shares
1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 22   0   0   0   0 220   1.000
2. Julius Erving        0  21   1   0   0 152   0.691
3. Larry Bird           0   0  13   8   1  90   0.409
4. Moses Malone         0   1   6   4   8  57   0.259
5. Magic Johnson        0   0   1   5  10  30   0.136
6. George Gervin        0   0   1   5   2  22   0.100
7. Marques Johnson      0   0   0   0   1   1   0.005


[semi-sentient]

Site updated: www.dolem.com/poy

Magic cracks the 7.0 all-time shares mark, and Larry Bird takes the #4 spot away from Shaq and falls just short of Tim Duncan (.007!) for the #3 spot. After the next round of voting well see Kareem take the #10 spot from LeBron, who will likely also slide below Moses Malone.

Code: Select all

1.  Michael Jordan    9.578
2.  Magic Johnson     7.114
3.  Tim Duncan        6.153
4.  Larry Bird        6.147
5.  Shaquille O'Neal  5.910
6.  Karl Malone       4.649
7.  Hakeem Olajuwon   4.380
8.  Kobe Bryant       4.326
9.  Kevin Garnett     3.388
10. LeBron James      3.083

[Doctor MJ]

Man, so close between Larry and Tim!

[Optimism Prime]

I'm interested in the gap between Magic and Bird--does that match up to what other posters have thought about the two, or is it a result of this project's system?

[Dr Positivity]

That Kareem picture is a classic, but I think it'd fit better to have a playing pic like everyone else. Just IMO.

[semi-sentient]

That Kareem picture is a classic, but I think it'd fit better to have a playing pic like everyone else. Just IMO.

Yeah, I'm gonna change that. Still searching for a good pic of Kareem that I want to use.

[Dr Positivity]

I'm interested in the gap between Magic and Bird--does that match up to what other posters have thought about the two, or is it a result of this project's system?

Well keep in mind not everything is the total share. Yearly wins is an equal lopsided victory for Bird - 4 to 1. And if you take 80-89 (counted to 89 to factor in both injuries), Bird beats him

But yeah it's logical to me they were close in their prime but Magic had more years giving him the edge. I'm just as surprised Magic beat Duncan by that much. Duncan's number and rankings looking beastly when he put it up.

[semi-sentient]

I'm interested in the gap between Magic and Bird--does that match up to what other posters have thought about the two, or is it a result of this project's system?

It matches up for me. Magic's playoff success, along with the fact that his play never fell off from RS to PS, is why I've always had him a bit higher than Bird.

[Doctor MJ]

I'm interested in the gap between Magic and Bird--does that match up to what other posters have thought about the two, or is it a result of this project's system?

I'm guessing it will surprise most people, however I don't think Bird is really a clear victim of a bias by the system. By contrast, players like Barkley & Shaq, who miss large amounts of time regularly, can argue that they were unfairly treated. Example: If over 3 regular seasons, player X plays the equivalent of 2 seasons, but plays them well, and plays in the playoffs, he probably shouldn't be rated worse than a player who played at the same level healthy over 2 seasons - however, in this system, this could result in Player X getting dropped out of the top 5 all 3 seasons.

Now, something that could be mentioned as an issue with this system is the considering of all seasons to be equal. While a dominant year by a player tends to give that player more POY shares (say 1.000 vs. 0.900), there will be times where the proper share gap between two historical performances is not appropriate. For a guy like Bird considered to have a very high peak, this could be a problem.

With that said, talking specifically about Bird vs Magic, Magic's actually got a great case for being UNDERrated by this system. Consider that a guy who gets second place to an all-time great level performance by another guy may very well have earned first place in most years. Magic of course finished 1st only once, and finished 2nd an amazing 7 times, losing every one of those years to either peak Bird (3 times) or peak Jordan (4 times). If Jordan doesn't exist, Magic probably goes WAY above Bird.

So on the whole, I can see an argument for Bird as underrated, but vs Magic specifically, I think the gap is legit.

[Doctor MJ]

I'm interested in the gap between Magic and Bird--does that match up to what other posters have thought about the two, or is it a result of this project's system?

Well keep in mind not everything is the total share. Yearly wins is an equal lopsided victory for Bird - 4 to 1. And if you take 80-89 (counted to 89 to factor in both injuries), Bird beats him

But yeah it's logical to me they were close in their prime but Magic had more years giving him the edge. I'm just as surprised Magic beat Duncan by that much. Duncan's number and rankings looking beastly when he put it up.

While I think Bird's 4 to 1 edge on actual RPOYs is meaningful - this can actually be argued to work against a guy as I mentioned in my post.

I get into discussions like this semi-frequently in tennis. People will argue, say, that Martina Hingis was better than Venus Williams despite the fact that Venus really has greater big tournament results, because Hingis spent so much time at #1. However, Venus didn't spend much time at #1 largely because she peaked at the same time as here sister Serena, so the fact that she surpassed Hingis tournament results despite losing out on a lot of results due to losing to Serena makes what she did even more impressive. In short, spending more time at #1 can be an indication of weaker competition which should be accounted for appropriately.

[bastillon]

do you guys have Bulls results with/without Artis Gilmore ? I know he had a serious knee injury in 4th game of the season, but I don't know for how long. I know he rushed his return, not sure if he returned and was out again. not that he's some sort of a candidate in this season, but that'd be really helpful.

Bulls were 1-2 with healthy Artis (the last game of prime Gilmore, against Magic/Kareem, is actually available). then, including the injury game, they were 2-5 for the rest of October. so:

1-2 Artis
2-5 October
4-10 November
5-7 December
6-10 Jan
5-9 Feb
7-8 March

[eminence]

Going back through these starting from 79-80 forward. Reading threads, watching what players I can, and then posting what my votes would have been.

1. KAJ- Pretty clear-cut, easily the best player on the best team in the league. Top tier on both offense and defense. Agree with others from earlier in the thread that he probably should have been finals MVP even with the missed game 6.
2. DrJ- Kind of by default, Magic/Bird not quite there yet, and Moses had a bit of an off season.
3. Bird- Way ahead of Magic during the regular season, and he wasn't bad in the playoffs.
4. Magic- Probably not top 5 for regular season, but had a very good playoff run that'd probably leave him at #2.
5. Moses- Not much to say, great player, not his best season.

HM(in order):
Marques Johnson- Got booted out of the top 5 by Magic's great playoff run.
George Gervin- Great scorer, super one dimensional though.