RealGM Top 100 List #8

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#101 » by SDChargers#1 » Thu Jul 14, 2011 8:28 am

ElGee wrote:You're speaking to the function of different players, positionally. It is not obvious that any big has a bigger defensive impact that any wing. Bigs carry a larger defensive burden, so they can be a great positive (or negative) on that end than a wing. With Hakeem and Duncan, we are talking about 2 of the GOAT defenders, so their defensive impact on the game should not be minimized by simply noting it as a function of their position. The difference is LARGE...and that's really important.


Exactly, but in the exact same way wings have a bigger offensive impact than any big. They control the ball more, penetrate the offense, set up everyone else. Even the greatest offensive post players of all time are worthless if they don't get the ball.

Wings simply carry a larger offensive burden than bigs. With Kobe we are talking about one of the GOAT offensive players, so his offensive impact on the game should not be minimized by simply noting it as a function of his position. The difference is LARGE (see above post)...and that's really important.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#102 » by Laimbeer » Thu Jul 14, 2011 12:14 pm

Vote - Duncan
Nominate - Mikan
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#103 » by pancakes3 » Thu Jul 14, 2011 12:43 pm

SDChargers#1 wrote:I agree completely. Except Kobe has a higher career TS% than Duncan or Hakeem :o :o . That's the biggest factor for me personally, is that these two highly efficient big men are LESS efficient than Kobe.

snip

Overall, this is a very close vote, I can understand people going both ways, but some of the Kobe hate in this thread is unbelievable. He's overrated on defense? OK, I get it people have been saying it for years. He's doesn't have a sizeable advantage on offense compared to Duncan and Hakeem? Cmon, really? Kobe's a better scorer, more efficient and a better passer than both. This is as clear as defense is an argument for them over Kobe.


what about the fact that the difference in TS% between Hakeem and Kobe is .553 to .556 which is not exactly "sizeable"? How about the playoff TS% where Dream's .569 actually IS sizeably higher than Kobe's .542? TS% is a fine percentage and gives perimeter players an equal footing because it includes FTs. The traditional school of thought where bigs>smalls in terms of efficiency comes in fg% and efg% where the big men still reign supreme.

you want to talk about volume scoring in the playoffs? Kobe's 25.4ppg vs Hakeem's 25.9ppg? what about the back-to-back championship runs where Kobe scored 30.2 and 29.2 respectively? In Hakeem 2x run he scored 28.9 and 33. I don't see this "sizeable" advantage really. small note about passing? hakeem only averaged 1 less apg than Kobe during the back-to-back runs also.

imo the two are rather comparable in scoring, for the postseason anyway. their efficiency is comparable. you toss in the rebounding and defensive edge that Hakeem holds? i see the scales tipping towards the Dream.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#104 » by Die93 » Thu Jul 14, 2011 2:08 pm

The 2005-2007 Spurs supporting Cast is being underrated.

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Best perimter Defender in the league
Good surrounding big men(nazr, Oberto Robert horry)
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#105 » by Vinsanity420 » Thu Jul 14, 2011 2:48 pm

Die93 wrote: Its actually a dissapointment they never repeated


This stuff needs to be stopped echoing around these threads - It's actually never a disappointment when a team doesn't win a championship.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#106 » by Die93 » Thu Jul 14, 2011 2:53 pm

Successfully defending your championship is very important, it validates the one before and proves it wasnt a fluke IMO. All the greats except for Bird,Duncan, andWilt have sucessfully defneded their Crown.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#107 » by An Unbiased Fan » Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:15 pm

Fencer reregistered wrote:For the first time, I can't bring myself to read the entire thread -- way too much "You idiots, you're underrating Kobe's greatness!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Sorry you feel this way. I don't see anyone stating, "You idiots, you're underrating Kobe's greatness!". I do see people advocating for him in the #8 spot, just like there are many doing the same for Hakeem & Duncan.

It's kind of dissapointing how the tone of the project has turned in this thread. At the beginning, there were good honest debates, and some nice back & forth. I came into the project thinking Wilt would be Top 3, but do to the great contributions from various posters, I ended up at a different conclusion. I also got a new appreciation for Bill Russell, that I didn't have before. Even the nomination debates like DRob vs KG were informative. We all could have just submitted our Top 100 lists, and then calculated a final one. But, isn't the point of the project to actually discuss the merits of various players?

I have posted the merits of Kobe , but I certainly haven't demeaned opposing viewpoints. I'm just here for good sports discussion to take my mind off work. But frankly, everytime I make a post about Kobe, I'm besieged with multiple replies disregarding his postives & harping on his negatives. I'm not naive of course, this is no shock considering that Kobe on RealGM, is regarded like Obama on a GOP blog. But it does seem that with Bryant, there is a certain "dissmissiveness" in the air, that I don't see with any other player.

Perhaps I could do the 2-line "Vote:" & "Nomination:" post and be done with it. But then this wouldn't be an actual discussion, and instead just a tally. All these players have strong points to be compared & debated, hopefully, we get back to that mindset, because the earlier threads were of really great quality.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#108 » by ElGee » Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:34 pm

SDChargers#1 wrote:
ElGee wrote:
SD Chargers wrote:Of course Duncan and Hakeem have more impact than Bryant defensively. It is their job. But in the same way Bryant clearly...CLEARLY has more impact offensively.


If by "clearly...CLEARLY" you mean slightly more offensive impact, then yes, it's clear. But be careful not to overstate this.

You're speaking to the function of different players, positionally. It is not obvious that any big has a bigger defensive impact that any wing. Bigs carry a larger defensive burden, so they can be a great positive (or negative) on that end than a wing. With Hakeem and Duncan, we are talking about 2 of the GOAT defenders, so their defensive impact on the game should not be minimized by simply noting it as a function of their position. The difference is LARGE...and that's really important.

Why? Because the offensive difference isn't large between these players.

Furthermore, Hakeem played some of his best offensive basketball *while* playing elite D. Part of Kobe's "problem" in player comparisons is that his best defense -- say 2000 -- didn't come close to lining up with his best offense (2008 or healthy in 2010 IMO). So what you have is a top-level offensive guy and an average/neutral defensive presence at his peak. And that peak falls well short of the slightly worse offense/elite defensive impact provided by Dream and Duncan.

I know you love you some Kobe, but how do you see this so differently?


No it is a pretty significant advantage offensively. How do you measure offensive production? Volume, efficiency, and passing? Kobe is better than them (and by a significant margin in volume and passing) in all of those categories.

Volume -

Kobe has scored 25+ ppg TEN times in his career, 27+ ppg six times, 30+ ppg three times (peaked at 35.4).
Hakeem has scored 25+ ppg four times in his career, 27+ ppg two times, 30+ ppg never (peaked at 27.8).
Duncan has scored 25+ ppg one time in his career, 27+ ppg never, and 30 + ppg never (peaked at 25.5).

Kobe has a significant advantage in volume

Efficiency -

Kobe has had 54%+ TS all 15 years of his career and peaked at 58% TS
Hakeem has had 54%+ TS for 14 years of his career, but tailed off and failed to in 4 of his last 5 seasons. Peaked at 57.7% TS
Duncan had had 54%+ TS for 10 years of his career, and failed to four times. Peaked at 57.9% TS

Kobe has a marginal advantage in efficiency (but once again, considering we are comparing bigs to smalls, the fact that Kobe has any advantage at all is pretty telling)

Passing -

Kobe has had 3+ apg in 13 seasons, 4+ apg in 12 seasons, 5+ apg in 8 seasons. Peaked at 6 apg.
Hakeem has had 3+ apg in six seasons, 4+ apg never, 5+ apg never. Peaked at 3.6 apg.
Duncan has had 3+ apg in nine seasons, 4+ apg never, 5+ apg never. Peaked at 3.9 apg.

Kobe has a significant advantage in passing.

So essentially in any given year Kobe would produce an extra 2+ assists and 4+ ppg than Hakeem and Duncan on better efficiency. That is a significant advantage.

Now you can bring up defense and rebounding, where I will readily admit that Hakeem and Duncan had much greater impact than Kobe. Just don't stand there and tell me Kobe isn't CLEARLY the better offensive player. He is better in every measure of the word.


Hmm - perhaps I asked that poorly. I'm speaking to peak play. Compare Kobe's best season with Hakeem's best season, for instance. (Whereas you picked a bunch of different years.) How do you arrive at a "sizeable" offensive advantage, and then Kobe being *better* overall?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#109 » by penbeast0 » Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:37 pm

Stick with it Unbiased . . . someone has to speak for all the Kobe fans out there. I haven't had a problem with your posts at all though I differ on the results.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#110 » by Baller 24 » Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:42 pm

SDChargers#1 wrote:

AUF specifically said that Olajuwon and Duncan had more defensive impact. He is just saying that Kobe has had a defensive impact, which can be shown in playoff series in which he would switch onto opposing perimeter players (Westbrook, Rondo, etc)


He does, but he's not some sort of anchor that can take complete control on the defensive end. He's overstating the offensive impact of Bryant saying he's a vastly greater offensive player compared to the two, from simply looking at AST% and PST%? That's honestly silly, it's subjective to look at statistics that way when each of these players clearly have a different objective.

Kobe's support is getting vastly overrated as usual. I will concede the O'Neal years, but his help in '09 in '10 were not that great, certainly not even close to all time teams. But I will say there were more help than Hakeem or Duncan's teams.


Defensively he had the support from Gasol, just look at Pau's first playoff run there on how he limited PFs in every single series Martin (42%), Boozer (38%), Duncan (42%), Garnett (44%), and BTW this continued onto the '09 & '10 championship runs.

This is my biggest qualm with these arguments. It's that you are perfectly willing to ignore the biggest strength Bryant has over Duncan and Hakeem (offense produced), but then trump defensive impact of Duncan and Hakeem as being significantly superior. You can't have it both ways. Here I will play your game...


I'm not ignoring it, I'm just simply stating that you can't compare any of these players offensively since they all have different objectives. Defensively it's obvious the big-man has the greater impact, but whatever impact Bryant "may"(I'm still not agreeing he has more impact) is very slight, compared to the defensive advantage.

Especially considering both Duncan & Olajuwon in both '94 and '03 were closing out games without a perimeter creator on the floor, they were the focal point of their offenses, and again without a perimeter or all-star caliber player incapable of creating their own shot. They fed off the double-triple teams, but even then when the offense needed to be carried, but did whatever it took (check the Finals runs). Bryant at least had that kind of help both defensively and offensively, just take '10 Game 7 of the Finals for example (Ron Artest).

You're ridiculous, you are comparing defense for post players whose main defensive objective is to protect the paint, of course their defense is going to be generally a lot better, but how can you from that aspect state they are clearly better defensive player when they don't even play the same relative position and have completely different objectives throughout the course of a basketball game, how does that automatically make Duncan and Hakeem superior defensive players, and in this case significantly superior?


Umm…the Chicago Bulls had similar objectives but they impacted an entire defensive scheme for a total of 6 championship runs (perimeter focused defense from MJ & Pippen, they were bigger threats defensively, Grant & Rodman weren't anchoring anything, considering once Jordan and Pippen would go out the defensive value would drop), LeBron in '09 & '10 was single handedly anchoring a defense from the perimeter, and the '11 Heat focused around Wade & LeBron's perimeter defense, it's evident throughout history even on Phil Jackson's teams that defensively a perimeter player CAN impact an entire defensive scheme, but Bryant clearly hasn't done that. So your point is moot, considering it's been done.

Now, I want to state that I find what I just wrote to be ridiculous. Of course Duncan and Hakeem have more impact than Bryant defensively. It is their job. But in the same way Bryant clearly...CLEARLY has more impact offensively. Honestly, I can't believe we are arguing that point. He is a better scorer (on better efficiency) and a better passer than both. Who cares what their jobs are, what matters is what they produce on the court.


I'm not arguing he that does have offensive impact, but it's very completely overstated in saying it's a clear advantage towards him.

I find this particularly interesting because as usual peoples arguments change once Kobe becomes involved. What happened to the importance of defense when comparing these 2 to Bird? They were even better at defense than they are compared to Kobe?

It's fine if you believe in something, but please be consistent with it.


If that's the case Kobe Bryant from everything AUF has been stating should have gone at number 2 all-time.

I agree completely. Except Kobe has a higher career TS% than Duncan or Hakeem :o :o . That's the biggest factor for me personally, is that these two highly efficient big men are LESS efficient than Kobe.


?
Duncan TS%: .552
Olajuwon TS%: .553
Bryant TS%: .556

He has a .03% advantage on Olajuwon and .04% advantage on Duncan, he scores at a volume obviously, but where's the "significant" offensive advantage? Both of these guys without scoring at volume levels or nearly having the same kind of talent as Bryant ('03 & '94) were able to win championships as the main established guys on the floor, closing out games, and taking complete dominance when their teams needed them, just like Bryant.

I can go the same way and compare Kobe's rebounding rate compared to those same guys. Kobe is actually one of the best rebounding SGs in the league and has been for most of his career. His career rebounding % is above Wade (who is another great rebounding SG), and blows away guys like Iverson, Allen, Carter, etc.


Yeah, but the point I was arguing was that it's silly to compare all three of those players through AST%, I was suggesting comparing them through rebound rate or BLK % due to the fact AUF is comparing them through AST%.


You just stated that Bryant was "hands down" the best player on the floor in every Spurs series. I provided Duncan's stats, you're suggesting he played even better than those numbers?

You're still not understanding that they both play completely different positions, in what context did he outperform Duncan? Here are his numbers again: 25.9 PPG, 12.8 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.7 BPG, FG 47%. Show me, how did he outperform that? Duncan's weak-side defense also helped contain Shaq from having a monster series (23.9PPG on 52%) and again this is against the Lakers having one of the best paint defenses in the league with Shaq +6.7 (ranked 3 ) in '01 & +7.1 (ranked 2) in '02, so show me how he "outplayed" individually in those series, I still have yet to see any evidence suggesting so.


It is actually quite close given the numbers you provided, but I am going to do a double check on those when given the chance, cause just glancing they don't look very close to what you pointed out.

EDIT: I did Duncan's numbers as well. In 15 games ('01, '02, and '04) Duncan put up:

24.1 PPG, 13.9 RPG, 3.9 APG, FG 46%

So you're numbers weren't entirely accurate, but close enough (maybe you included other years? Not sure). I would give the slight advantage to Bryant, but certainly not a landslide like AUF suggested.


I was including '99 as well for Duncan because I was comparing Shaq v Duncan in the prior thread, considering it was his start to prime dominance.

In 15 games ('01, '02, and '04) Kobe put up:

28.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 5.8 APG, FG 47% (I didn't do FT%, but it was a good deal higher than Duncan).


Fair enough, but I'm still not seeing AUF's "easily the most dominant player on the floor" in the series.

Overall, this is a very close vote, I can understand people going both ways, but some of the Kobe hate in this thread is unbelievable. He's overrated on defense? OK, I get it people have been saying it for years. He's doesn't have a sizeable advantage on offense compared to Duncan and Hakeem? Cmon, really? Kobe's a better scorer, more efficient and a better passer than both. This is as clear as defense is an argument for them over Kobe.
[/quote]

I'm not going to say that you're right or wrong, it's your vote and you seem like a very knowledgeable poster, but I was simply just addressing some of the scenarios of AUF, where he gave such a significant offensive advantage to Bryant over Olajuwon & Duncan that not even their defensive advantage was good enough to help them, despite them being one of the better more dominant players at their positions from an all-time perspective?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#111 » by Baller 24 » Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:49 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
Fencer reregistered wrote:For the first time, I can't bring myself to read the entire thread -- way too much "You idiots, you're underrating Kobe's greatness!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Sorry you feel this way. I don't see anyone stating, "You idiots, you're underrating Kobe's greatness!". I do see people advocating for him in the #8 spot, just like there are many doing the same for Hakeem & Duncan.

It's kind of dissapointing how the tone of the project has turned in this thread. At the beginning, there were good honest debates, and some nice back & forth. I came into the project thinking Wilt would be Top 3, but do to the great contributions from various posters, I ended up at a different conclusion. I also got a new appreciation for Bill Russell, that I didn't have before. Even the nomination debates like DRob vs KG were informative. We all could have just submitted our Top 100 lists, and then calculated a final one. But, isn't the point of the project to actually discuss the merits of various players?

I have posted the merits of Kobe , but I certainly haven't demeaned opposing viewpoints. I'm just here for good sports discussion to take my mind off work. But frankly, everytime I make a post about Kobe, I'm besieged with multiple replies disregarding his postives & harping on his negatives. I'm not naive of course, this is no shock considering that Kobe on RealGM, is regarded like Obama on a GOP blog. But it does seem that with Bryant, there is a certain "dissmissiveness" in the air, that I don't see with any other player.

Perhaps I could do the 2-line "Vote:" & "Nomination:" post and be done with it. But then this wouldn't be an actual discussion, and instead just a tally. All these players have strong points to be compared & debated, hopefully, we get back to that mindset, because the earlier threads were of really great quality.


I have no problem with you voting or preaching for Bryant, and I hope certainly that nobody else does, you're making arguments obviously and there's nothing wrong with that, only thing someone can do is rebuttal.

Fencer, AUF hasn't been rude, he's making arguments using an objective way, so let's tone it down a bit, let him make the case, and let others rebuttal. If you've got issues with some of the arguments, then go ahead and address those issues, but I don't think it's good to single a poster out like that.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#112 » by An Unbiased Fan » Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:54 pm

penbeast0 wrote:Stick with it Unbiased . . . someone has to speak for all the Kobe fans out there. I haven't had a problem with your posts at all though I differ on the results.

I'm defintely going to continue in the project, Pen. It's been too much fun, and way too informative for me not to stick around. I think I may tone it down bit though, because I don't want to derail discussion. There are plenty of good Hakeem vs Duncan arguments that have been made so far, and I do feel they may be getting drowned out by all the Bryant talk.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#113 » by ElGee » Thu Jul 14, 2011 4:13 pm

Baller, the obvious questions in this tangent are:

(1) What the hell does ast% represent?

Assists are a fuzzy, flawed stat. We're more interested in creation. Not all assists are even remotely comparable. They are a decent ballpark measure, but we know these (modern) superstars quite well and we shouldn't even have to cite raw assists, let alone "ast%."

(2) If a player outperforms someone else in a single PS series, what does it matter?

Paul Pierce is better than 2008 Kobe Bryant I suppose.

(3) What does it matter if TS% is slightly different when roles/teammates are different?

(4) How do we interpret raw stats in the context of teammates and team performance?

It's lovely if Adrian Dantley puts up amazing stats, but an offensive player's worth is determined by how well he lifts the entire performance of the offensive SYSTEM. See: Johnson, Magic. Bird, Larry. Nash, Steve. Etc.

Bryant has prime seasons in bipolar offensives, then his go in a more unipolar system (although LO was the primary creator on the team) then back to bipolar/multipolar balanced attacks. Hakeem played most of his career in a unipolar system as the only self-creator, surrounded by some well-built pieces/shooters.

For the record, I have Bryant's best offensive season as 2010 (marred a little by injury) and Hakeem's as 1995. Late peaks FTW!

Normalized per 75 pos
10 Bryant: 27.0 pts 5.0 ast +2.4% TS 109 ORtg (Team 108.8)
95 Hakeem: 26.8 pts 3.4 ast +3.4% TS 110 ORtg (Team 109.7)

PS
10 Bryant: 29.3 pts 5.5 ast +2.4% TS115 ORtg (Team 112.8 vs. 105.9 Opp DRtg)
95 Hakeem: 30.5 pts 4.2 ast +0.%9 TS 110 ORtg (Team 115.2 vs 107.5 Opp DRtg)

So even starting from here, it's hard to see some large edge...
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#114 » by Baller 24 » Thu Jul 14, 2011 4:32 pm

Agreed, not saying there's a "large" edge, but more or so that Bryant doesn't have a "significant" edge offensively.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#115 » by therealbig3 » Thu Jul 14, 2011 4:37 pm

Also, I've heard someone mention this before, and it makes sense...big men open things up offensively more than perimeter players do, due to the defensive attention a dominant big man can demand down low. Due to this, and due to the fact they usually get hockey assists, because their initial pass isn't usually to the guy who's going to score, dominant big men can score in the low 20's ppg range and not have to get 5+ apg in order to have comparable offensive impact to a perimeter player who's scoring 25-30 ppg. You can see this with guys like Shaq, Hakeem, Duncan, and KG.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#116 » by NO-KG-AI » Thu Jul 14, 2011 5:21 pm

^YEa, I think trying to imply that a guy getting 5 assists when he is dominating the ball on the perimeter is doing as well passing the ball as a big man that is getting 4-5 is just laughable to be honest.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#117 » by Vinsanity420 » Thu Jul 14, 2011 5:30 pm

ElGee wrote:Normalized per 75 pos
10 Bryant: 27.0 pts 5.0 ast +2.4% TS 109 ORtg (Team 108.8)
95 Hakeem: 26.8 pts 3.4 ast +3.4% TS 110 ORtg (Team 109.7)

PS
10 Bryant: 29.3 pts 5.5 ast +2.4% TS115 ORtg (Team 112.8 vs. 105.9 Opp DRtg)
95 Hakeem: 30.5 pts 4.2 ast +0.%9 TS 110 ORtg (Team 115.2 vs 107.5 Opp DRtg)

So even starting from here, it's hard to see some large edge...


Where are you getting these per 75 poss numbers from? Just curious.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#118 » by lorak » Thu Jul 14, 2011 5:40 pm

NO-KG-AI wrote:^YEa, I think trying to imply that a guy getting 5 assists when he is dominating the ball on the perimeter is doing as well passing the ball as a big man that is getting 4-5 is just laughable to be honest.



+1
Offense is much more than pts and ast.

For example look here: http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ranking03
That's RAPM for '03 season. Some big men (KG, Shaq) are better on offense than Kobe.

BTW, Even old Robinson was MONSTER on defense - the same level as prime KG and Duncan

And Stockton's fans should be happy: he seems to be good. On the other hand Karl Malone's fans may be disappointed. There are also two other seasons ('04 and part of '02) with data and Karl looks not so good as expected.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#119 » by ronnymac2 » Thu Jul 14, 2011 5:47 pm

DavidStern wrote:
NO-KG-AI wrote:^YEa, I think trying to imply that a guy getting 5 assists when he is dominating the ball on the perimeter is doing as well passing the ball as a big man that is getting 4-5 is just laughable to be honest.



+1
Offense is much more than pts and ast.

For example look here: http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ranking03
That's RAPM for '03 season. Some big men (KG, Shaq) are better on offense than Kobe.

BTW, Even old Robinson was MONSTER on defense - the same level as prime KG and Duncan

And Stockton's fans should be happy: he seems to be good. On the other hand Karl Malone's fans may be disappointed. There are also two other seasons ('04 and part of '02) with data and Karl looks not so good as expected.


Can you just explain what those numbers mean? Not like, in-depth about the formulas, just what they represent.

Why does Doug Christie rank so high?
Pay no mind to the battles you've won
It'll take a lot more than rage and muscle
Open your heart and hands, my son
Or you'll never make it over the river
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #8 

Post#120 » by mysticbb » Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:02 pm

ronnymac2 wrote:Can you just explain what those numbers mean? Not like, in-depth about the formulas, just what they represent.

Why does Doug Christie rank so high?


A rating of +2 means that the player plays 2 point per 100 possession above average. Lets say we have 4 average players (each wouzld have a rating of 0) and that +2 player (team A) against 5 average player (team B), the result would be +2 for Team A after 100 offensive + 100 defensive possessions. We can devide that number into offensive and defensive numbers too. A team with a +2 offensive player would play two points better than average after 100 possessions. Say, the average is 106 points per 100 possessions, the team would then score 108 points after 100 possession while letting their opponent score 106 points in 100 possessions.

Those numbers are adjusted for strength of opponents and teammates via a regression analysis. It uses regularization to cut off some of the collinearity and overfitting issues normal APM has. We get a better prediction out of that method. Engelmann, the guy doing that work, started to use the result from the previous season as a prior to predict the out of sample data more accurately. The best working prediction was achieved with 5.5 year data.

http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ranking_rec

That data set predicts out of sample data the best. And is so far better than any other APM version (or boxscore metric). Unfortunately he has not presented the data from 2007 on with that kind of algorithm, even though the data would be available. In such a case we could compare the 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 results on an equal basis. So far each result on that page for different seasons has a different amount of data used. And less data means all players closer to the mean due to the regularization used. Thus, we can't compare results from different seasons so far (or at least it makes not much sense).

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