James Harden is a superstar

[bastillon]

agree with everything rapcity said. as I've said in the other Harden thread, he's Steve Nash in Dallas. he can add loads of offense on his shoulders and will improve because he's simply elite at creating easy pts.

as for that Memphis game someone brought up... he got robbed by officials on 4 plays where he should've shot free throws. those fouls were so obvious I can't imagine how they would miss those calls. also, he didn't have the ball in his hands for the most part because Westbrook's jumpshot was on and he didn't wanna give it up. with the amount of turnovers Westbrook and Durant commit, putting the ball in their hands is unacceptable with Harden on the floor. from the team efficiency standpoint both would benefit tremendously with Harden as their playmaker. Durant needs little room to score and Westbrook is unstoppable as a cutter.

btw, Durant is playing too many isolations, he'd be much better playing off the ball, he's too weak of a passer to be elite creating off the dribble.

btw2, I'd really like to see trade:
Westbrook, Ibaka, Perkins, Nate Robinson's contract and 1st rounder for Dwight
that'd make OKC legendary. Harden would play PG for that team. you could even put him in s5 with Sefolosha guarding opponents best perimeter player, regardless of position. Thabo is one of the best perimeter man defenders I've ever seen.

[tsherkin]

Think it would be more fair to judge players off last year stats than 8 games. One hot streak or cold streak skews stats in a small sample

Monta's had a couple of years now in this role, his scoring game is pretty well-established. He's not very good at the role of volume scorer. He's starting to really improve as a playmaker, though, and that's been interesting. He's a particularly good off-ball scorer, though, really anywhere inside of about 15 feet, and when his volume scales back, he looks better and better as a scoring threat. He needs to be the second option as a scoring threat, though.

If someone is vastly more productive in a "lesser" role than someone who is in a "greater" role, so what? He's still more productive. I could understand the implication that Ellis would do better in a different role, but he hasn't been in a different role for YEARS. I don't think you can penalize Harden or apologize for Ellis because Harden is in a correct role and Ellis is stretching himself.

I wouldn't say ELLIS is stretching himself so much as his coaches have been misusing him since he showcased scoring talent in a more limited role a few years back. It would be interesting to compare their respective PnR play, though, and that makes it a lot more interesting than the scoring numbers and ORTGs might suggest. If Ellis were on OKC... well, like I said, making a comparison across such divergent roles is exceedingly difficult.

Also, if you're not a fan of Monta's scoring game, there's not much else there.

No, I'm just not blind. He's a volume shooter from above the FT line and above the arc, and he's not particularly efficient or consistent with either. He's not a good volume scorer, and there's no evidence to the contrary. He is, however, a particularly good second scorer when he's allowed to work off of the ball. And he's also an effective playmaker in the PnR, consistently improving there.

But when he's asked to be a 40 mpg and to take 19, 20, 21 shots a game, that's just not something his talent covers. He's not good enough to be effective in that role. I don't think Harden would be either, which is a big part of why I said it's so hard to compare them.

[ahonui06]

Harden is obviously better than Kevin Martin & OJ Mayo and there is an argument he could be better than Monta Ellis.

However, he is not a superstar.

[bastillon]

But when he's asked to be a 40 mpg and to take 19, 20, 21 shots a game, that's just not something his talent covers. He's not good enough to be effective in that role. I don't think Harden would be either, which is a big part of why I said it's so hard to compare them.

Harden would never put up 20 shots a game in the first place, because of his aggressive style that forces tons of free throws. it's not simply a matter of small sample size this season, he's a player constantly looking for contact and that's the way he attacks the paint anyway (to draw fouls, not to score directly). it's obvious seeing him play on a consistent basis. Harden would rather put up 15 shots and 9 free throws, while also dishing about 6-7 assists. all that not turning the ball over and shooting 60% TS. throwing up illadvised shots is simply not James Harden. increasing his usage won't result in much higher FGA attemps, because you have to account for proportionately higher FTA rate and assist distribution.

he doesn't even need his FGA to go much higher anyway, he needs the ball in his hands. look at Steve Nash in 04 and 05. he barely increased his shot attempts, but the real difference in his effectiveness was the way he got those shots. in 2004 he worked more off ball, more often shooting contested shots after his teammates created a poor look for him to bail them out. in 2005 he was the one creating off the dribble and hence much better looks both for him and his teammates. that's the same way it works with Harden and the particular similarity is how they read the defense.

oh, and people need to watch Harden before speaking about him being 3rd option. Memphis was so scared of Harden't abilities off the dribble that they TRAPPED him on those pick and rolls, not only double teamed. the difference with a trap is that both defenders are totally commited to stay with Harden, to force the ball out of his hands. that type of defensive coverage is unparalleled even among NBA's superstars. scouts already know how valuable he is and that's why teams put so much effort and resources to stop him. when Harden is playing WITH THE BALL, teams are playing as if he ALREADY WAS a superstar. surely neither LeBron nor Wade see comparable defensive pressure on the pick and roll as Harden saw in that Memphis game.

[tsherkin]

Harden would never put up 20 shots a game in the first place, because of his aggressive style that forces tons of free throws.

I don't think you can definitively say that given the differences in coaching approach. The Warriors have need of a volume scorer and no one else on the roster is really qualified to fill the role. By default, the coaches turn to Ellis for this. No one will EVER confuse me for an Ellis apologist, but there is certainly some institutional push towards having him in that role and it is more than possible that Harden would be asked to do the same, since no other player on the roster is really capable of doing it.

oh, and people need to watch Harden before speaking about him being 3rd option. Memphis was so scared of Harden't abilities off the dribble that they TRAPPED him on those pick and rolls, not only double teamed.

Let's talk about this. In that game, I saw Harden handle in the PnR 4 times (at least in the most recent one, I didn't see the first game against the Grizz).

First time, they didn't trap, they sent Harden's man under the screen and Cunningham jumped out. Harden crossed over right, so Cunningham slid back under the screen and dropped back a bit and took a foul as Harden drove to the rim.

Second time, no trap. It was a right-wing PnR, Harden went left. Cunningham came out against and covered Harden as his man stuck with Collison, then Cunningham dove back towards the paint and the rotation to cover him was late, so Harden stuck a 3 in Memphis' face.

Next was a right-wing PnR with Harden and Collison. Again, no trap. Screener stayed high, his defender dropped back and two guys were waiting for Harden as he approached the key. He split the defenders and drew a foul en route to the rim.

Next one was a HIGH left-wing PNR. Way high, like 30 feet from the rim. No second defender anywhere near him until he was about 8 feet from the rim. The screener's man was backpedaling furiously to keep up with him, but they definitely didn't trap him and he had basically a free drive against a disadvantaged defender until he hit the low block.

[bastillon]

well I saw about 10-15 pick and rolls so do you want me to go back bringing up specific situations in particular ? I have that game downloaded.

as for Warriors need of a volume scorer, I wasn't questioning that. I was questioning Monta's decision making in comparison to Harden. Monta rarely draws fouls, shoot too many 2 pt jumpshots, and is terrible in terms of playmaking because of his consistently high turnovers. shooting efficiency and ability to handle the ball without turning the ball over are Harden's greatest attributes so leaving them off just like that is pretty unfair.

edit: maybe you watched only those pick and rolls when something really happened. I count every set screen with Harden handling the ball as pnr and that's when Grizzlies were able to contain him (by sending hard traps). notice that on the plays when they didn't apply heavy defensive pressure (the 4 plays you mentioned, OKC's ORTG was about 150-200.

[tsherkin]

well I saw about 10-15 pick and rolls so do you want me to go back bringing up specific situations in particular ? I have that game downloaded.

I saw him act as the ball-handler in 4, as I mentioned. I saw other guys run it, Westbrook and Durant, for example, but not so much Harden. Anyway, that's the classic sense; I saw him TAKE a screen more than once, that's for sure. There were a couple of plays like the one at the beginning of the second quarter where the PnR failed, are you maybe talking about those? I was talking about plays where the PnR ran effectively, because failed PnRs don't really speak to this thread. There were more than a couple of plays where Harden made a smart pass out of a trap on the wing, but defensive rotations didn't let the offense do anything. I'm thinking of the high sidescreen, right side around 11:12 when they blitzed Harden and he threw it to Collison on the baseline, but by the time the pass arrived, Dunningham was already back at Collison and Gasol showed baseline to discourage the drive, so it turned into a skip pass to the weakside pocket.

THAT happened a ton, but I don't really count those as conventional PnR plays because the possession didn't end, it just reset and the offense went into continuity.

as for Warriors need of a volume scorer, I wasn't questioning that. I was questioning Monta's decision making in comparison to Harden. Monta rarely draws fouls, shoot too many 2 pt jumpshots, and is terrible in terms of playmaking because of his consistently high turnovers. shooting efficiency and ability to handle the ball without turning the ball over are Harden's greatest attributes so leaving them off just like that is pretty unfair.

You're assuming that this state of affairs is 100% on Monta, which is a mistake. He is being asked to take on a role for which neither he nor Harden are suited and to do so without the same level of support Harden enjoys around him in OKC.

edit: maybe you watched only those pick and rolls when something really happened. I count every set screen with Harden handling the ball as pnr and that's when Grizzlies were able to contain him (by sending hard traps). notice that on the plays when they didn't apply heavy defensive pressure (the 4 plays you mentioned, OKC's ORTG was about 150-200.

Yeah, there it is. And yes, you're right. But the point there was that they were able to blitz the ball-handler and then show-and-recover in time to make that an effective defensive play. That's a common defensive tactic among good teams.

Although in deference to Harden, they do that to Rose a lot. So it's certainly a compliment to his capabilities.

[bastillon]

I'd be willing to say that Harden is able to withstand that offensive load. when he's leading the 2nd unit he plays with Mohammed-Collison-Cook-Reggie Lewis/Maynor, none of whom are known for their volume scoring. Harden is the anchor of that offense and they perform very well offensively. it'd be interesting to see his boxscore production per36 with those units, but I think he puts up crazy numbers as I've seen him go for 12 pt quarters on insane efficiency in those situations. I know, bench vs bench, but even when he was asked to handle pnr's consistently against Mavs in last year's WCFs, they couldn't stop him (but they could stop LeBron for example on the same play).

as for those pnr's you talked about, I was counting those failed pnr's because that was the only way opponents were able to contain Harden on the pick and rolls... by trapping him and making him re-play the same action or swing the ball across court. when they didn't apply that defensive pressure, as you mentioned it resulted in:
1. FTs
2. made 3
3. FTs
4. layup

if you're the defense and some guy is running the pick and roll in that manner, you might as well not care whether he's define a superstar or not. either way you have to put much more effort defensively to stop him, because those 4 plays is called ripping apart the defense.

[tsherkin]

I'd be willing to say that Harden is able to withstand that offensive load.

Sure you are. But there is no proof of it just yet, so as I've been saying all along, the only thing remaining for us to do is wait for a time when Harden is in position to prove this notion. There's nothing meaningful to be gleaned from the claim that he's a superstar when he's definitively not.

when he's leading the 2nd unit he plays with Mohammed-Collison-Cook-Reggie Lewis/Maynor,

Should point out, Harden's played 362 minutes.

He's played at least 158 of those minutes with either or both of Durant and Westbrook, which is almost 44%. That's a large enough proportion to say it's still fuzzy as to what his production would be when he's logging heavier minutes-per-game in a more focal role without the support of the two-time defending scoring champion and so forth.

if you're the defense and some guy is running the pick and roll in that manner, you might as well not care whether he's define a superstar or not. either way you have to put much more effort defensively to stop him, because those 4 plays is called ripping apart the defense.

Once again, I'm not questioning his effectiveness or the quality of his play; I'm only attacking the label that you are attempting to apply.

[bastillon]

to me it's like this, in terms of boxscore production and in-game impact so far this season, Harden has been playing like a superstar. he ranks really high on every global stat and teams plays the best with him on the floor. but that's not why I'm labeling him superstar. I'm making that case based on his abilities. to me Dallas Nash was also a superstar, just wasn't able to convince everyone that he was because he wasn't playing with the ball in his hands enough. same thing with Harden.

[tsherkin]

to me it's like this, in terms of boxscore production and in-game impact so far this season, Harden has been playing like a superstar. he ranks really high on every global stat and teams plays the best with him on the floor. but that's not why I'm labeling him superstar. I'm making that case based on his abilities. to me Dallas Nash was also a superstar, just wasn't able to convince everyone that he was because he wasn't playing with the ball in his hands enough. same thing with Harden.

Scoring volume doesn't determine if you are a superstar. I'd be pretty happy to declare Harden an All-Star, but he's rather clearly not the primary player on the team. He's not the guy around whom the team is constructed. And to at least some extent, the superstar label should only be applied once a player has proven himself capable of leading a team. Harden doesn't lead the team, he performs really well for a team that goes with Durant's performance.

Harden really does remind me of Manu in that sense; he's second to someone else. His role off of the bench, his limited minutes, playing next to a perennial All-Star player, it's a very similar situation. Manu was never a superstar, and neither is Harden. Not yet, anyhow. Dallas Nash wasn't either, he was just a really good player doing his job next to Dirk. Nash became a superstar, but it was once he left and had a team of his own when that happened.

Perhaps the same will happen to James. Given of what he has shown himself capable, it is a possibility, but it is not the case right now.

[ahonui06]

I know, bench vs bench, but even when he was asked to handle pnr's consistently against Mavs in last year's WCFs, they couldn't stop him (but they could stop LeBron for example on the same play).

Couldn't stop him is a bit far-fetched. Marion was the Mavs' top defender and he was assigned to Kevin Durant the entire series. Harden excels because the opposing team's top defender is always on Durant. In the WCF, Harden received an extra bonus when the defensive sieve, Jason Terry was assigned to defend him.

FYI, these were Harden's numbers against the Mavs in the WCF

14.4PPG, 6.0RPG, 3.4APG on 53/30/80 in 32MPG.

Hardly superstar numbers.

[bastillon]

I know, bench vs bench, but even when he was asked to handle pnr's consistently against Mavs in last year's WCFs, they couldn't stop him (but they could stop LeBron for example on the same play).

Couldn't stop him is a bit far-fetched. Marion was the Mavs' top defender and he was assigned to Kevin Durant the entire series. Harden excels because the opposing team's top defender is always on Durant. In the WCF, Harden received an extra bonus when the defensive sieve, Jason Terry was assigned to defend him.

FYI, these were Harden's numbers against the Mavs in the WCF

14.4PPG, 6.0RPG, 3.4APG on 53/30/80 in 32MPG.

Hardly superstar numbers.

Harden hardly had the ball in his hands. he was unstoppable once he did though.

[KiDeezy]

James Harden is NOT a superstar, all-star maybe, but in no way a superstar. He's the 3rd option on his team, and I also believe that Ellis is better than him. Defenses focus on Durant first, and Westbrook second. Make him the primary focus of the defense, then take away the Durant, Westbrook to pass to, then we'll see.

[dream_catcher_9]

I agree with a lot of what bastillion says, but disagree with a couple of things.

He is right in that when he is playing with our 2nd unit, Harden is the engine on offense, and boy is it a finely tuned engine. Him and Collison have incredible synergy together, he also knows where Cook is at all times as he loves to throw the ball across court for a 3 dagger.

Unfortunately he doesn't have very much chemistry with the starters. One, because Perk and Ibaka are terrible PnR players as both have stone hands and can't score efficiently. Two because Westbrook and Durant like to have the ball in their hands a lot, so there isn't much left over for Harden. The first step is getting Harden to ask for the ball more when paired with the 2 stars, but I don't think he will have great success because of the said big men and lack of PnR skills.

This is why I disagree with bastillion in that he is a superstar. To me, a superstar can dominant a game with any teammates, on a consistent basis. Harden needs a good PnR big man and good outside shooters to be most effective IMO.

If you inserted Harden into the starting lineup and gave him more USG and took some USG from Westbrook I have no doubt Harden would still produce, but not in the absurd way that he is now.

Now if you put Collison in the starting lineup, that's another story.

[bastillon]

I agree with a lot of what bastillion says, but disagree with a couple of things.

He is right in that when he is playing with our 2nd unit, Harden is the engine on offense, and boy is it a finely tuned engine. Him and Collison have incredible synergy together, he also knows where Cook is at all times as he loves to throw the ball across court for a 3 dagger.

Unfortunately he doesn't have very much chemistry with the starters. One, because Perk and Ibaka are terrible PnR players as both have stone hands and can't score efficiently. Two because Westbrook and Durant like to have the ball in their hands a lot, so there isn't much left over for Harden. The first step is getting Harden to ask for the ball more when paired with the 2 stars, but I don't think he will have great success because of the said big men and lack of PnR skills.

This is why I disagree with bastillion in that he is a superstar. To me, a superstar can dominant a game with any teammates, on a consistent basis. Harden needs a good PnR big man and good outside shooters to be most effective IMO.

If you inserted Harden into the starting lineup and gave him more USG and took some USG from Westbrook I have no doubt Harden would still produce, but not in the absurd way that he is now.

Now if you put Collison in the starting lineup, that's another story.

I respectfully disagree. first of all, Ibaka is pretty good offensively. I've seen him with nice shooting touch, great finishing ability and he's athletic enough for alley-oops etc. Perkins is another story. he's obviously one of the worst centers in the NBA.

but where I disagree in particular is your analysis of OKC's offense with Westbrook/Durant in the game. the biggest issue here is that Harden is rarely playing with the ball in his hands in those situations because Westbrook is a primary ballhandler when he's in the game and Durant is consuming tons of touches. Durant is usually isolating, can't pass for a damn, and ballmovement just stops when he and Westbrook dominate the offense. with those two in the game Harden is a true spot up shooter/entry passer. if you actually look at what Harden has been doing on the pick and roll with Durant and Westbrook in the game, I think you'd be surprised how they both benefit from Harden's presence. Westbrook becomes an unstoppable cutter (hit Westbrook with the ball on the move and it's over, and Durant can also hit shots from outside). Harden doesn't necessarily need to find rolling big to do well. I've never seen Harden contained on the pick and roll for a longer stretch, be it with Durant or without him. as I've said, the problem is that he doesn't have the ball in his hands anymore with Durant in the game.

[BmanInBigD]

Borderline star, budding star, whatever. Nice player. Would love to have him on the Mavs. Superstar? Absolutely no way.

[bastillon]

Harden's still at 66% TS and 131 ORTG; if he does sustain his productivity and efficiency what would you say tsherk ?

[lukekarts]

Harden's still at 66% TS and 131 ORTG; if he does sustain his productivity and efficiency what would you say tsherk ?

I'd say you're putting too much stock in his TS%, when it is clearly linked to volume and Harden is not leading or any where close to leading in volume.

At the moment he is very similar to Ray Allen (Ray's TS% is 70.3% so far this year, with an ORTG or 122). in terms of complimentary impact. Ray is not a superstar at this point (nor did he peak at superstar level) but I suspect he would be performing similar for OKC - they are after all, a better team than Boston.

You refer back to Nick Collison but he's putting up an even more astounding 71.7% TS% with an offensive rating of 135. Even Thabo Sefolosha is sporting a 67.4% TS% with an ORTG of 124 at this point.

The point I am trying to make is that Harden's performances are somewhat aided by the fact he plays with Durant and Westbrook, and clearly the whole team's offensive execution has been great this season.

Harden is not quite performing at a prime Manu Ginobili level and Manu Ginobili was not a superstar either.

[Krodis]

Harden is at a higher USG rate than Allen, and Allen's TS% is mostly because of a likely very unsustainable 57.7% mark from three. And of course he's way above Collison and Sefolosha in terms of shots (although you'll find most Thunder fans would never say a bad thing about Nick Collison). Plus, he contributes in the rebounding and playmaking departments as well.