#7 Highest Peak of All Time (Bird '86 wins)

[Dr Positivity]

What disturbs me is Duncan leapfrogging Bird & Magic. Not because I can't believe someone would think that, but because that's never been a majority opinion and I haven't see people's minds changed here. I frankly don't know how anyone could believer that and not rank Duncan ahead of Bird & Magic on a GOAT career list "easily", and that's never happened before. So yeah, it's a pretty clear indicator that a player might be leaping up multiple spots simply to drive an "evil" down one more spot. That's wack. It means people are actually driving down their top choices by their strategic thinking.

I'm not sure why this connection has to be made. I know I have 03 Duncan as barely above 86 Bird and 87 Magic, like the gap between everyone in the top 10-ish. I think it's fair to pick 03 Duncan and still consider it a very close decision between the 3 on the ATL. Do you mean that 03 Duncan having a higher peak + more longevity is supposed to create an "easily" gap on the ATL? (which is the way I took ElGee's "Kareem should be GOAT or 2nd if you rank his peak this high" comment) Because I think Duncan's longevity gap vs Magic/Bird isn't that big of a deal.

Magic played 12 years before the HIV retirement and then has a 13th year in 1996 arguably comparable to 2012 Duncan. Duncan's 12th season was 2009 and that includes 2000 which I personally consider meaningless from an ATL perspective, like all seasons where a player can't go in the postseason. His generally considered final prime season (2007) was his 10th year, including 2000, so he has 9 elite years up to that point, one of them as a rookie. I see very little reason to give Duncan any longevity points over Magic at all there.

Larry Bird has the worst longevity of the 3, but he still has 9 years as an MVP caliber player, plus 2 other pretty great ones. Once again Duncan after 9 healthy/elite years and 2 more "past prime, still an all-star/elite player" ones, takes him to the year 2009. So any gap of Duncan over Bird has to be putting a lot of value into 2010-2012 Duncan. Are those extra years meaningless, no, in fact they might be the reason I put Duncan over Bird on the ATL. But it's not enough for me to say "Well if peak Duncan gets voted ahead, that means he has to easily be above Bird on the ATL". Finally it seems like we really are getting close to the majority of people really putting Bird 3rd of the Magic/Duncan/Bird group. I've been shocked and dismayed at how far down Bird has been dropping on lists I've been seeing lately, but I think putting Magic and Duncan over him is justified and probably fair

Finally, I think the idea of trying to fit these lists into the ATL is a shaky concept. I'd prefer it if we just tried to judge these players without having to rely on the other rankings we've done. If the list looks different than we could've expected it's not a big deal, peak is quite a bit different a thing than an ATL and it is possible we misjudged the latter

[colts18]

I could stand LeBron 12 getting selected but 09 ? it was the same guy that got exposed in the 2 following years basically. same player, same skillset. really comes down to this: it's hard for me to vote for a player who I know got exposed with the same skillset while playing at the same level. people suddenly believe LeBron was better in 09 than in 10 or that he lost his athleticism by '11. to me it just sounds like a very poor narrative trying to explain his blatantly obvious weaknesses. the way I see it, he was the same player and 10-11 data is sort of an extension of the limited sample for 09. his numbers were obviously much more impressive in 09 than in 10-11 but that's not because he was any better. just a great set of circumstances.

LeBron wasn't the same in 09 as he was in 11. He was much more athletic and willing to penetrate to the basket.

LeBron put up huge numbers because Magic decided to let LeBron get his and stop the shooters. on top of that LeBron was mostly being guarded by Hedo Turkoglu, yet he gets praised as the one who destroyed #1 defense. well, certainly Orlando didn't play like #1 defense in that series. it wasn't because Cavs were such a great offensive team. Celtics exposed the same exact LeBron year later. LeIso era LeBron was definitely overrated playoff performer offensively.

Where do you get that Hedo was guarding LeBron for the series? From the highlights I looked at, he barely guarded him. It was a combo of Pietrus, Lee, Hedo, and Lewis.

The Magic did play good defense like a #1 team. They had a 102.88 D rating in the playoffs minus the Cavs series which is right in line with their 101.9 D rating in the regular season. And they did play well against everyone except LeBron. LeBron only had 3 teammates who averaged 10 PPG and they did it on .505 TS%. The fact that they were 112 O rating vs 1 defense was a testament to LeBron scoring 39 PPG on great efficency.

still, his series vs Orlando was big (though #1 defense crap really got out of hand) but he didn't win and yes, he could've done more. his defense was very poor in that series, IMO he was the main reason why they collapsed so much. I have no idea why LeBron doesn't get any blame for Cavs defensive collapse. BIG argument in his favor seems to be that his defense is what seperates him from other top perimeter players. but that was obviously not the case in the playoff year we're discussing. his defense very well might have been THE reason why they lost. he was specifically guarding the worst opposing player to help on Dwight... yet Dwight had the best series of his career. how is this not partly on LeBron ? I feel like you people are acting like LeBron 09 was some kind of a demi-god who couldn't have done more. I can't even imagine Hakeem-Varejao-Moon-Parker-Williams losing that series to Orlando, for example. that Orlando team was like really bad outside of Dwight. at the time of watching that series, I doubted whether LeBron outplayed Dwight, let alone talk about him as GOAT close to 91 Jordan.

LeBron didn't play like crap defensively. LeBron's 2 main defensive opponents were Turkoglu and Alston and they had 39 FG% and 37 FG%. And I posted the video before. LeBron's man only touched it 3 times total and did nothing else. Where are the plays LeBron should have helped? There isn't much help you can do if Howard is 3 feet from the basket by the time you get there and you have to leave a 3 point shooter to do it in the process.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwWAE7XZF3w&feature=fvwrel[/youtube]

[bastillon]

The 86 Bulls were a +0.5 team with MJ and basically averaged that in 85 and 87 with a healthy MJ. The Suns won 44 games with a 1.57 SRS. They were the better team. Advantage Spurs.

just no way MJ's team is a worse opponent than those flawed Suns. Marion was known for disappearing offensively in the postseason. Amare was known for getting exposed defensively. Marbury was the only one who could create anything. they had no post defense. those Suns were perfectly built for getting spanked in the playoffs. poor HCO, poor defensive rebounding, poor interior defense. Bulls had a huge weapon in MJ who usually improved in the playoffs (as he did this time as well). there's always a chance MJ can win a series by himself. there's no chance those Suns were tougher to beat.

The 03 Mavs and 86 Bucks were both 8+ SRS teams. The Mavs had Dirk for 3 games, the Bucks had Moncrief for only 3 games, but Moncrief was injured in that series. So both are equal opponents.

well even if that were comparable circumstances, Dirk was a MUCH better player than Moncrief. losing him cost them a lot more than it did Bucks. Bucks actually often played better without Moncrief. just look:

Moncrief 1983 (6g) 1.3 to 4.5
Moncrief 1985 (9g) -0.5 to 6.8
Moncrief 1986 (9g) -0.8 to 9
Moncrief 1987 (43g) 0.3 to 4.1

Bucks were still elite team without Moncrief if only Pressey was playing. they were +9 without him in the year we're discussing here. Moncrief just didn't make as much impact as it's advertised. it was much more about Cummings and Pressey than about Moncrief.

as for Mavs, I see they were -6.5 without Dirk on the court that year. not sure how much of that is low sample and how much it's Dirk's value but for what it's worth Dirk posted 4.0 RAPM that year, finishing 6th, not far behind Duncan's 5.0 (peak Duncan) or Shaq's 4.9. clearly Dirk was huge for Mavs that year. Mavs couldn't compete at comparable level without Nowitzki.

so there's no argument really, Squid-less Bucks >>> Dirk-less Mavs.

[Josephpaul]

Changed my vote to Duncan 03 also re edited my original vote post

[C-izMe]

People are bringing up Lebron 12 over 09 because "Orlando wasn't a real number one defense", well I'll downgrade Lebron 12 because he had no competition. Boston was nothing special, Pacers and Knicks were nothing, and OKC played the worst defense I've seen in a PS series. IMO its easy to score when your "guarded" by James Harden and the defense is leaving open threes/tackling three point shooters.

I've already said this but 12 Lebron is probably worse than 09 Wade, Paul, and Lebron.

[bastillon]

I'm changing my vote back to Bird 86. it's just insane he could drop this low. 32+ PER with 39-5 record to end the season really gets to the heart of it. he had great stats all year but he was like Shaq 01, he actually improved as the season progressed.

[ElGee]

It's because there is a disconnect between all-time value and dichotomous concepts like "better peak?" "better longevity?" That's why I calculated all the probabilities of different SRS teams, so we could stop shooting in the dark with player value when doing multi-year comparisons.

It logically follows that, even with all these guys close together, if you have Kareem with a high peak near Jordan himself, then you also think more highly of all his surrounding years. (Unless you just somehow believe Kareem was more anomalous in 1977, which would perhaps be an even weird stance. Let's not go there...) You could also say "well, the guys above Kareem have peaks that are THAT much higher," but that seems strange too -- there doesn't seem to be any evidence of such outliers in basketball history. (Funny enough, the only statistical evidence for such an outlier is Kevin Garnett's multi-year APM number.)

If you add up all that career value, it's clearly on par with, or higher, than anyone, including basically Jordan. So that's why I said it was a weird thing to see. MOST people see Kareem as a top-3 player. MOST people also don't think Kareem has a super-high peak. This is someone who won a Finals MVP 14 years apart. He has SEVENTEEN top-10 MVP finishes (15 top-5). I can't even really figure out how you'd have to view Michael and Russell to get Kareem a super high peak and not have him 1 or 2. But then again, I can't figure out how people view Karl Malone's career, so maybe it's the same thing...

That's a really long-winded way of saying I just don't think people are grasping player impact over multiple seasons -- and how could they? -- so they default to stuff that leads to inconsistencies. Kareem, out of the blue being voted in here, would be one of those inconsistencies.

[bastillon]

People are bringing up Lebron 12 over 09 because "Orlando wasn't a real number one defense", well I'll downgrade Lebron 12 because he had no competition. Boston was nothing special, Pacers and Knicks were nothing, and OKC played the worst defense I've seen in a PS series. IMO its easy to score when your "guarded" by James Harden and the defense is leaving open threes/tackling three point shooters.

I've already said this but 12 Lebron is probably worse than 09 Wade, Paul, and Lebron.

Celtics were a great defensive team (easily the best defensive team in the league with playoff mode KG) and LeBron carried them by himself. Wade was sometimes a net negative. Bosh was barely playing in the series. I mean game 6 anybody ? that Celtics series, particularly games 6-7 is what made the difference. this is exactly what LeBron 09 was lacking.

skill wise I can't believe how one would even make an argument that LeBron 09 was better. I mean his defense in 09 got exposed in the ECFs, while LeBron 12 was succesfully containing pretty much everyone he was guarding. Melo, Granger and Pierce got flat out destroyed by his defense. he locked up Rondo and West for stretches. he was often playing center in the finals as excelled as help defender. where was that kind of impact in 09 postseason ? that and post-game were definitely MUCH improved areas of LeBron's game.

[colts18]

Celtics were a great defensive team (easily the best defensive team in the league with playoff mode KG) and LeBron carried them by himself. Wade was sometimes a net negative. Bosh was barely playing in the series. I mean game 6 anybody ? that Celtics series, particularly games 6-7 is what made the difference. this is exactly what LeBron 09 was lacking.

skill wise I can't believe how one would even make an argument that LeBron 09 was better. I mean his defense in 09 got exposed in the ECFs, while LeBron 12 was succesfully containing pretty much everyone he was guarding. Melo, Granger and Pierce got flat out destroyed by his defense. he locked up Rondo and West for stretches. he was often playing center in the finals as excelled as help defender. where was that kind of impact in 09 postseason ? that and post-game were definitely MUCH improved areas of LeBron's game.

Why did leBron try guarding the weaker offensive opponents in 12 like Ibaka/Perkins instead of going after Durant? Why didn't he use his help defense to stop Durant or Westbrook, both of them had pretty good series especially Durant (31 PPG, 65 TS%).

[ElGee]

@Bast, I've learned to accept the voting will be weird in these projects, even though, unfortunately, the voting is what will be obsessed over after the project ends (overshadowing the information in it). That said, the thing that is crazy to me is not necessarily the vote, but that I don't see people addressing what's being presented about these players. Maybe it's the kind of thing that sinks in only after the project (see Wilt in the last top 100 project, for eg).

But yes, it is weird in Bird's case since as far as I can tell there have really been about 3 players in NBA history people have been openly gawked at and discussed as having GOAT peaks: Wilt, Bird and Jordan. We know about the cases for everyone else, but I've never read any mainstream literature that discussed people outside of this, perhaps with the exception of Shaq (eg Elliot Kalb).

[bastillon]

(Unless you just somehow believe Kareem was more anomalous in 1977, which would perhaps be an even weird stance. Let's not go there...)

how is that ? when did Kareem did something remotely comparable to what he did in 77 postseason ? he just WILLED his team past the Warriors with unreal performances time after time. he averaged like 39/18 for the series. then he went on to play against the best defensive team in the NBA (possibly the best defensive team of the 70s, period) and despite horrible play from his guards he dominated against fellow all-timer at his peak. to me 77 seems like a big outlier. for some reason Kareem was never this motivated. he put it all together for that postseason. they were playing without 2 starters in the playoffs. competition matters. not only did he face a +9 team with great defense, he was embarassing their defensive anchor h2h despite severe double teaming. in one game Walton got outscored like 14-40. I know Walton's value far exceeded his boxscore numbers but still, his defense was a major part of his overall value and it was clear he could do nothing about stopping Kareem. very much like D-Rob 18 years later against Hakeem.

[C-izMe]

People are bringing up Lebron 12 over 09 because "Orlando wasn't a real number one defense", well I'll downgrade Lebron 12 because he had no competition. Boston was nothing special, Pacers and Knicks were nothing, and OKC played the worst defense I've seen in a PS series. IMO its easy to score when your "guarded" by James Harden and the defense is leaving open threes/tackling three point shooters.

I've already said this but 12 Lebron is probably worse than 09 Wade, Paul, and Lebron.

Celtics were a great defensive team (easily the best defensive team in the league with playoff mode KG) and LeBron carried them by himself. Wade was sometimes a net negative. Bosh was barely playing in the series. I mean game 6 anybody ? that Celtics series, particularly games 6-7 is what made the difference. this is exactly what LeBron 09 was lacking.

skill wise I can't believe how one would even make an argument that LeBron 09 was better. I mean his defense in 09 got exposed in the ECFs, while LeBron 12 was succesfully containing pretty much everyone he was guarding. Melo, Granger and Pierce got flat out destroyed by his defense. he locked up Rondo and West for stretches. he was often playing center in the finals as excelled as help defender. where was that kind of impact in 09 postseason ? that and post-game were definitely MUCH improved areas of LeBron's game.

He didn't guard Melo, Pierce was hurt, and West was killing Lebron. He was missing easy hooks but he got deep position at will and rebounded well when he was guarded by Lebron.

You can also say Wade was a net negative at times but they didn't win those games (first two Indiana games) anyway. This guy put up monster numbers while completely referring to Lebron.
22.6/6/5.2 in the Finals
21.4/5.7/4.9 against Boston
26.2/5.5/3.3 against Indiana (33/7.3/3.7 to close the series)
Against NY he had both Wade and Bosh agains a hobbled team.

His team was great. Wade (other than the pre knee drain games against Indiana that they lost) was great, the role players hit their shots, and he played nobody (Celtics with hurt Pierce, Ray, and Bradley; Knicks without Lin, Baron, Jeffries, and Tyson hurt; OKC/IND who were overrated all year).

[fatal9]

I'm changing my vote back to Bird 86. it's just insane he could drop this low. 32+ PER with 39-5 record to end the season really gets to the heart of it. he had great stats all year but he was like Shaq 01, he actually improved as the season progressed.

Yea, injured back for the first month or so of the season from paving his driveway in the off-season. After watching a good chunk of games from the second half of the '86 season, I've always maintained that from around January of that year to the end of the finals is the finest extended offensive stretch I've seen by a player.

Didn't matter who was out, who was in...Bird went out there, filled up the boxscore with triple doubles or big scoring games and got the wins. That stretch when McHale was out blows my mind. I don't know what the numbers are specifically but I saw no drop off with McHale out and Bird pretty much used that opportunity to put up ridiculous triple doubles (showed type of numbers he could put up with more touches and more available rebounds, people forget that Bird was a 10 rpg guy while playing with two other 10 rpg guys). He just reached a ridiculous level of all around dominance and consistency which continued through the playoffs.


Some of my favorite games of his from this year:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0FcgSs_Zb8A[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-bN4rDTfYFI[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3eIW_ujmhE[/youtube]


Bird vs. LeBron is a tough debate, but I agree with the point others made of Bird being more portable offensively. LeBron is better at lifting bad or average teams, but I think Bird's offensive skills allow him to better lift a good team. This is because of Bird's versatility in scoring (something we congratulate LeBron for this year because of added post game...but Bird had a post game since his early years), elite outside shooting and playmaking without needing to dominate the ball just all fit so well along other good players.

[C-izMe]

And if you want to talk defense thats not the reason Miami won. Their defense was nothing special and in the Finals it was bad. OKC scored better against them than almost anyone else (haven't seen the numbers but it's well above their average).

[ElGee]

Go read what you wrote about people warping the LeBron narrative, and then apply to Kareem. i consider his 1980 season to be VERY close to 1977. As well as 1972 or 74. When you say he didn't do that stuff, how do you explain these other performances?? Have you seen the games? Do you realize he didn't have to shoot as much with better teams?

[bastillon]

Why did leBron try guarding the weaker offensive opponents in 12 like Ibaka/Perkins instead of going after Durant? Why didn't he use his help defense to stop Durant or Westbrook, both of them had pretty good series especially Durant (31 PPG, 65 TS%).

some players just can't be stopped. that's probably why Spo felt LeBron's help defense was way too valuable to stick him to Durant. Westbrook had one great game and sucked the rest of the way, mostly. but LeBron's help defense was very much crucial in that series. he was a big factor. that's exactly what he was supposed to be doing in 09 and failed.

you also mentioned Cavs shooters getting swarmed by Orlando defense. well, if LeBron could use his post game back then, Orlando would be forced to double team and that'd leave shooters open. he wouldn't have to score 39 ppg to win the series then. at the time everyone criticized Cavs offense for being predictable and just poorly built for playoff basketball. for the series it seems like Cavs were great offensively but that's not even close. I remember them choking every time Magic turned it up, I think there were 2-3 big comebacks from like -20. Cavs offense was just disappearing. suddenly LeBron couldn't create an open look for his teammates.

I remember the comments at the time and I just can't believe LeBron is getting selected as GOAT-level peak for that season. I don't think anybody said that at the time. those numbers just seem a lot more impressive now that most of us forgot about the whole context of how he got them. I guess nobody remembers those 2nd half chokejobs when Dwight was dominating on both ends. when LeBron was pounding the ball for like 20 seconds and passed it for contested 3s. when he was doing nothing in help defense (pretty much just saved his energy for offense).

I'm telling you, LeBron 12 is winning that series easily. he'd score 30 ppg, but everyone else would get open shot after open shot after everybody would collapse on him down low. his defense would also be a game-changer. he'd probably guard Dwight for stretches, fronting him and forcing Magic to play high low (and nobody could pass well on that team aside from Turkoglu). funny this is the way Dwight won the series for them.

[bastillon]

Go read what you wrote about people warping the LeBron narrative, and then apply to Kareem. i consider his 1980 season to be VERY close to 1977. As well as 1972 or 74. When you say he didn't do that stuff, how do you explain these other performances?? Have you seen the games? Do you realize he didn't have to shoot as much with better teams?

in 72 and 74 he performed a lot worse individually. his efficiency was just poor against Thurmond/Wilt and at best decent vs Cowens. how is this close exactly ? I've seen his play in 74 finals, at least the parts that are available. he wasn't playing very well from what I've seen. he only scored a couple points in the two 4th Qtrs + OT from what I remember. also, Cowens just flat out outplayed him on his homefloor in game 7 of the NBA finals. he actually outscored him. there were comments about Kareem not getting out on the perimeter to contest his jumpshots. Walton was no worse than Cowens offensively and he was pretty much contained by Kareem. not sure if you realy thought that through. 80 was a great year, but he didn't have series like vs GSW or PTB. just no.

[Dr Positivity]

I don't quite get your logic there. Jordan got voted in 1st and Kareem 6th. Isn't 1st vs 6th a big enough gap to say people can justifiably prefer Jordan's peak enough to outweigh Kareem's extra longevity?

Also the difference between Jordan and Kareem's "prime" in regards to longevity isn't that big to me. IMO Kareem's prime is 71-81, which is 11 seasons. He's a rookie in 70 and a strong player but clearly a little lesser statistically from 82-86. Jordan's prime is roughly 10 seasons - 87-93 + 96-98. In addition to this, 86 and 95 aren't meaningless. If his team is talented enough to make the playoffs, having 86 and 95 Jordan is still a tremendous asset. Like Kareem he has a special rookie season with the "he's still a rookie" caveat. I don't think 70-81 Kareem vs 85-93 + 95-98 Jordan is a substantial difference at all in regards to longevity value.

Where Kareem's advantage lies is being a fabulous player from 82-86. I can see the argument that he's a better player than Pau Gasol and Kevin McHale, two top 50 caliber players, in these years. So I can buy someone who believes Kareem's peak is close to Jordan's and that thus by adding a "Lakers era Pau Gasol value" onto an already amazing 12 year stretch, he deserves to be voted ahead. But I also could absolutely buy into the argument that getting the better player and particularly, what Jordan did in the playoffs in those 10-12 years is more important to winning multiple championships, than having the best 2nd option in the league for 5 more as an icing on the cake. 1st option caliber players generally mean much MUCH more than 2nd option caliber players in regards to winning titles

[C-izMe]

Why did leBron try guarding the weaker offensive opponents in 12 like Ibaka/Perkins instead of going after Durant? Why didn't he use his help defense to stop Durant or Westbrook, both of them had pretty good series especially Durant (31 PPG, 65 TS%).

some players just can't be stopped. that's probably why Spo felt LeBron's help defense was way too valuable to stick him to Durant. Westbrook had one great game and sucked the rest of the way, mostly. but LeBron's help defense was very much crucial in that series. he was a big factor. that's exactly what he was supposed to be doing in 09 and failed.

you also mentioned Cavs shooters getting swarmed by Orlando defense. well, if LeBron could use his post game back then, Orlando would be forced to double team and that'd leave shooters open. he wouldn't have to score 39 ppg to win the series then. at the time everyone criticized Cavs offense for being predictable and just poorly built for playoff basketball. for the series it seems like Cavs were great offensively but that's not even close. I remember them choking every time Magic turned it up, I think there were 2-3 big comebacks from like -20. Cavs offense was just disappearing. suddenly LeBron couldn't create an open look for his teammates.

I remember the comments at the time and I just can't believe LeBron is getting selected as GOAT-level peak for that season. I don't think anybody said that at the time. those numbers just seem a lot more impressive now that most of us forgot about the whole context of how he got them. I guess nobody remembers those 2nd half chokejobs when Dwight was dominating on both ends. when LeBron was pounding the ball for like 20 seconds and passed it for contested 3s. when he was doing nothing in help defense (pretty much just saved his energy for offense).

I'm telling you, LeBron 12 is winning that series easily. he'd score 30 ppg, but everyone else would get open shot after open shot after everybody would collapse on him down low. his defense would also be a game-changer. he'd probably guard Dwight for stretches, fronting him and forcing Magic to play high low (and nobody could pass well on that team aside from Turkoglu). funny this is the way Dwight won the series for them.

I sorta agree with you on 09 which is why it dropped from where I had it before the project but 12 has been glorified for no reason IMO. Top 15-20 IMO but no chance at top 10.

[Dr Positivity]

1980 Kareem would've gotten my vote for him if he'd been healthy for the last game. Missing the most important game of the year is a pretty big deal for me when we're voting on singular seasons and when the gap between eg. 1980 and 1977 Kareem wasn't that big in the first place