What separates Wilt & KG?

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Doctor MJ
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Re: What separates Wilt & KG? 

Post#101 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Feb 28, 2013 2:47 am

Sharifani_San wrote:Russell is the one that says continuously that Wilt was a smart player...i'm not so sure the "nuances of the game" argument quite applies to him.

I think among more serious analysts I am the only one who puts 1962 on the pedestal, ie i've put my homework into it.

and to the contrary, if they had won the series your argument against him for that year would have been null and void...I mean would you seriously stand there and say he didn't have the GOAT season in 1962 had they won the championship? because I think they would have beat LA. Maybe you'd be one of the few detractors, but who knows...


I can't really take a statement like Russell's there that seriously. How many times has he talked about carefully crafting the matchups with Wilt to make Wilt feel like he was succeeding when he wasn't? You can't do that to someone who truly grasps the lay of the land.

Additionally, there's just the matter that there's a pretty solid history of "one step ahead" style players having transformative impacts on teams they join. If you are a player like that and more physically talented than everyone else, how is it you never pull off anything remotely like this?

Re: 1962 serious. Okay fair enough. I won't say you're alone, but you're quite right that among analysts I'd expect 1967 to have a good chance to beat out 1962 which would never happen with casual fans.

Re: what if. There is always the possibility that had a game in 1962 gone differently, I'd think about the NBA entirely differently, but I flatter myself that I think it wouldn't. What's trickier is that if the Warriors had won that year, that possibly changes the whole complexion of future strategy surrounding Wilt, so who knows how it would have all played out.

Generally speaking though, I'm very aware of the role that luck plays in sports. If Team A is better than Team B year after year by a good margin, and Team B upsets Team A once in an incredibly close short series, I'm not inclined to believe Team B got magically better that one year. The ball just bounced their way once.

On that same note, this is why while I think very highly of Russell I try not to just say "11 rings FTW!". No doubt about it got lucky along the way. It is not luck though that his team's defenses were basically always the best often by insane margins, it's not luck that their overall RS performances tended to be way above other contender for the first 8 or so titles, and it's probably not luck that a super-experienced aging veteran team sure appeared to be stronger in the post-season in the late '60s than they were in the regular season. 11 was lucky, but the number would be high regardless.
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Re: What separates Wilt & KG? 

Post#102 » by lorak » Thu Feb 28, 2013 5:11 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
DavidStern wrote:Doc,
the problem with 60s ortg evaluations is that we really don't know how player like Wilt changed average (estimated) values. I mean he was great ORB and DRB player (+ probably high tournover ratio player - but more in his later days) and that changes ortg drastically.


As mentioned, it's not perfect but it's clearly better than raw PPG numbers. Also let's be clear that with any of this the danger we're talking about is misallocation of credit of offense vs defense. Nothing changes the fact that the overall SRS shift from year to year is pretty well established.


True, but the fact remains that we don't really know why something (better/worse/the same SRS) actually happened. So blaming (or giving credit) Wilt is too much stretch IMO. We simply don't have enough information to fairly evaluate Wilt (or others 60s players). For example It seems Oscar was better than West, but difference isn't that huge and simply data noise (because of lack of more data) might shift results towards him, when in reality Jerry was better. Or for example if we go only by SRS Hakeem wouldn't look so impressive.
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Re: What separates Wilt & KG? 

Post#103 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Feb 28, 2013 5:25 am

DavidStern wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
DavidStern wrote:Doc,
the problem with 60s ortg evaluations is that we really don't know how player like Wilt changed average (estimated) values. I mean he was great ORB and DRB player (+ probably high tournover ratio player - but more in his later days) and that changes ortg drastically.


As mentioned, it's not perfect but it's clearly better than raw PPG numbers. Also let's be clear that with any of this the danger we're talking about is misallocation of credit of offense vs defense. Nothing changes the fact that the overall SRS shift from year to year is pretty well established.


True, but the fact remains that we don't really know why something (better/worse/the same SRS) actually happened. So blaming (or giving credit) Wilt is too much stretch IMO. We simply don't have enough information to fairly evaluate Wilt (or others 60s players). For example It seems Oscar was better than West, but difference isn't that huge and simply data noise (because of lack of more data) might shift results towards him, when in reality Jerry was better. Or for example if we go only by SRS Hakeem wouldn't look so impressive.


We don't ever truly know causality. Granted it's rougher for historical play, but it's not like we're operating on stats alone. As heretical as some of these ideas are, they largely were expressed in some form back in the day.

Working with limited informations means you have to be careful, but it doesn't mean you have to be paralyzed either. If the best data you have says Oscar is better than West, then you side with Oscar. Failure to do so is essentially favoring some other irrational factor over the albeit incomplete rational stuff you have.

Re: only go by SRS. Just so it's clear to everyone: Just because I use SRS to look into what happened doesn't mean I'm a prisoner of it. I use it to paint the picture.
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Re: What separates Wilt & KG? 

Post#104 » by ElGee » Thu Feb 28, 2013 5:42 am

Sharifani_San wrote:At least I understand you and Elgee a little more (although I find laughable his assertion on who the onus is to provide evidence, any time one has an argument then you automatically have an onus upon you, but i digress....)


This is confusing -- it sounds like you just agreed with me. Perhaps i wasn't being clear. (Really, how was this not clear? I'm looking for feedback here since I felt like I was bordering on pedantic.) Here is the argument:

"Wilt is a basketball god."

Now the onus is on the asserter to provide evidence. This person's first piece of evidence is

"Because he was 7 feet 2 inches tall."

The onus is then on this person to provide evidence for why that makes him a basketball god. It is not on me to disprove that height doesn't necessarily make him awesome. It's true, I spend most of my time writing by debunking these silly notions, but that's usually because if the asserter were capable themselves of coming up with the proof, they wouldn't have reached such a silly conclusion in the first place.

Similarly, the onus is on people to explain why the two or three Wilt stats they obsessively espouse automatically make him a basketball god. I'll give you another one for fun:

"Bill Russell is GOAT because he won 11 titles." The onus is not on me to prove the 11 titles don't make him GOAT, it's on the asserter to prove why the 11 titles make him GOAT. This is just basic logic...
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