RealGM NBA Top 100 list -- #1

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Re: RealGM NBA Top 100 list -- #! 

Post#101 » by ceiling raiser » Sun Jun 29, 2014 4:28 pm

DannyNoonan1221 wrote:I know I am a little late to this, and a lot of people have already spit out some extremely interesting looks statistically between Russell/Jordan. And I am sure the "Mental Edge" is annoying to hear because thats what a lot of people fall back to a lot when they don't have stats… but in everything that I have read about all these different players, I honestly don't think anyone has proven beyond any reasonable doubt that they are better than Jordan at willing their team to the top.

Maybe I'm misreading, but I'm surprised that you're contending mental edge is a separating factor between MJ and Russell. :o Again, I might be misunderstanding, here.
Either A.) The Celtics were historically stacked for that era, his teammates were as great as they are remembered, and while Russell is an all time great, he had quite the supporting cast; or B.) Those guys are remembered for being so great because the competition wasn't very strong and the guys on the team fell into their historical places by default of being on the championship team.

There certainly is another possibility (considering the supporting cast was comprised largely of offensive players, and by the numbers, the Celtics offenses were mediocre-to-poor, depending on the season, while their defenses were consistently dominant exactly during Russell's tenure, and fell off before his arrival/after his departure). :wink:
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Re: RealGM NBA Top 100 list -- #! 

Post#102 » by MisterWestside » Sun Jun 29, 2014 4:59 pm

lorak wrote:That "sounds" better than really is, but in reality doesn't say much about his athleticism, because Olympic caliber high jumper in 1957 = high school caliber high jumper now.

If we want to judge how athletic Russell was there's no need to use Olympics. Enough game tape with him is available to see how mobile he was, and while he was excellent, he wasn't more athletic than bigs like Hakeem, KG or especially Robinson, who is GOAT athlete among big men (of course I'm talking about DRob pre injury in 1996).


Can't cosign this post enough.

What I'm witnessing here in this discussion is exactly what I thought that posters would end up doing: looking at the impact numbers for Russell in his era and going crazy over them, instead of thinking more about his actual skills. And I'm not saying that posters aren't looking at his skills, but the bias caused by Russell's era-specific impact his apparent. No, I don't think that he'd be a significantly better athlete than today's defensive greats (especially Robinson), and we see the impact that those guys had on defense in the modern day. And, once again, I also don't think he was the equal of Garnett, Duncan, or Robinson on offense (even after you "modernize" Russell's offensive skillset).

I said this before in another thread:

Not at all. Show a tape of one of the other old-timers to most basketball fans - even savvy basketball fans - and they might remark that these players lack one or several skills that the modern star player possesses. It's only here that these old-timers outside of Chamberlain are given a relative pass for this, which is colored by the bias of their impacts (or player value, another name for the same thing) on specific rosters in a specific era. And, as any sound basketball person should know - whether that person is a fan, coach, GM, or statistician - player impact can be affected by many pertinent factors in addition to a player's inherent skillset.

It's why I regard the entire 50s-60s era from a skeptic's point of view. We're not asking for the MVP of the era; we're asking a question as it relates to a player's skills and team roster construction in the modern NBA. And it requires more profound and abstract analysis that goes beyond player value.
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Re: RealGM NBA Top 100 list -- #! 

Post#103 » by Texas Chuck » Sun Jun 29, 2014 5:08 pm

MisterWestside wrote:[

What I'm witnessing here in this discussion is exactly what I thought that posters would end up doing: looking at the impact numbers for Russell in his era and going crazy over them, .



To be fair, even Russell detractors who think he wouldn't be nearly the same guy in a modern era should be looking at the impact numbers for Russell in his era and going crazy over them. Just like we are going to go crazy over some of the Nash impact numbers when we get to him. Just because Nash might not could have done the same thing in the 60's doesnt mean we can't be in awe of what he actually did in the 00's. Same thing for Russell in his.

No matter how poorly someone thinks he would fare now, there is no ignoring what he did in his era. I can't understand why you have a problem that people are impressed with his play in his own era. I understand the different viewpoint where guys want to compare and project how players will do in different eras and I understand the arguments for suggesting Russell wouldnt be near a GOAT candidate today. What I don't understand is this idea that we shouldn't be impressed by what he actually did when he actually played. It's frankly beyond any reasonable dispute.
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Re: RealGM NBA Top 100 list -- #! 

Post#104 » by Jaivl » Sun Jun 29, 2014 5:09 pm

lorak wrote:high jumper in 1957 = high school caliber high jumper now.

If we want to judge how athletic Russell was there's no need to use Olympics. Enough game tape with him is available to see how mobile he was, and while he was excellent, he wasn't more athletic than bigs like Hakeem, KG or especially Robinson, who is GOAT athlete among big men (of course I'm talking about DRob pre injury in 1996).

Really doubt Hakeem or KG are more athletic than Russell. We are talking about a guy who could leap over himself (cleared 6' 9 3/4") and ran the 100 hurdles in about 13 seconds.

This is the classic Bill highlight video, I know. Still, never have seen KG or especially Hakeem do anything close to this display of athleticism. Even if you don't consider the crappy shoes Russell was playing with. The combination of speed and jumping ability is dazzling.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JWelUNrJUMM[/youtube]
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Re: RealGM NBA Top 100 list -- #! 

Post#105 » by Texas Chuck » Sun Jun 29, 2014 5:10 pm

MisterWestside wrote:We're not asking for the MVP of the era; we're asking a question as it relates to a player's skills and team roster construction in the modern NBA.



And its fine for you to take that approach. But we aren't all doing that. And that's fine too.
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Re: RealGM NBA Top 100 list -- #! 

Post#106 » by colts18 » Sun Jun 29, 2014 5:12 pm

I can't vote for Russell because he was a bad offensive player in his era, just imagine how bad that would be in this era.
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Re: RealGM NBA Top 100 list -- #! 

Post#107 » by Owly » Sun Jun 29, 2014 5:15 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
Quotatious wrote:


but Jordan for me is the best/greatest offensive player ever,
.


I'm going to nitpick here, as this is a major point of contention for me. Jordan is the greatest scorer/ offensive force to ever play. But calling him the GOAT offensive player in the sense that Russell is the GOAT defender doesn't pass the test for me.

We have mountains of evidence stating that Bill Russell was the best defender ever. For one, he was a defensive force in the way Jordan was an offensive force. He was a terror, and severely limited/intimidated pretty much every center he ever went up against. The fact is, Wilt Chamberlain consistently played worse against him and consistently lost to him in terms of individual matchups. It's a common theme, people just could not beat Bill, and he dominated in a way we've never seen since.

But let's look to another main support of Russell: he led SEVERAL of the greatest defensive teams of all time. ElGee and fpliii have made this case, but no one's defensive impact more directly translated into team defensive efficacy than Russell. We've seen great defenders come and go, but none of them have come close to pulling their teams to the heights Russell's teams consistently did. And here's where Jordan's case gets hairy: you can't say the same for him on offense. In fact, you can very clearly say that Magic Johnson's offensive contribution weighted more heavily on his team's success. Note I'm not talking about winning, I'm talking about team offensive performance as a whole, where Jordan can't claim to be the GOAT. we can say he could have led GOAT offenses, but it never really happened. And in fact, we've seen players like Nash and James, who both take a more "hands on" approach to team offense, pull their teams to greater heights than the Jordan's Bulls ever reached.

And then there's exploitability. Although few in number, there were times when teams were able to limit Jordan's offensive impact. I'm talking specifically about the pistons here, as they quite clearly had a blueprint for dealing with him. Granted, he dismantled it later in his career, but it still existed. Russell never had such deficiencies. Nobody ever figured out how to beat him. Ever. Until he retired, his defense was basically the most consistent thing outside death and taxes. You can point to coaching and strategy, which is fair, but the point is nobody ever figured out Russell. He was probably he most adaptable players ever, and could just change his strategy in a heartbeat to counter whatever the offense was doing. This is a primary reason his contemporaries treat him with such reverence.

I can't get behind claiming Jordan as the offensive GOAT in the same sense as Russell being the defensive GOAT. His offensive impact frankly just doesn't hold up to the same scrutiny we use to evaluate Russell.


Dr Spaceman wrote:We have mountains of evidence stating that Bill Russell was the best defender ever. For one, he was a defensive force in the way Jordan was an offensive force. He was a terror, and severely limited/intimidated pretty much every center he ever went up against. The fact is, Wilt Chamberlain consistently played worse against him and consistently lost to him in terms of individual matchups.

Wilt outscored Russell close to 2 to 1, outrebounded him and outshot him by something around 10% (estimating here, it might be either side of that), and he consistently lost the individual matchup? Here’s George Kiseda’s take “When I look back on the Wilt-Russell games, I divide them into three parts. A third of the time, Wilt outplayed Russell. A third of the time, Russell outplayed Wilt. And then there was the other third of the time, when Wilt dominated Russell.” Now Kiseda was a Philly sportswriter but he wasn’t a Wilt worshipper or anything. I just can’t see the basis for a claim that Russell was winning the individual matchup.

Dr Spaceman wrote:Although few in number, there were times when teams were able to limit Jordan's offensive impact. I'm talking specifically about the pistons here, as they quite clearly had a blueprint for dealing with him. Granted, he dismantled it later in his career, but it still existed. Russell never had such deficiencies. Nobody ever figured out how to beat him. Ever. Until he retired, his defense was basically the most consistent thing outside death and taxes.

IMO this is just an unfair comparison. Primarily because you’re either comparing individual level offense with team level D or you’re just comparing team offense, with team defense when nominally discussing individuals.

1) Firstly it’s worth noting what limiting Jordan’s impact looks like
’88: 27.4/8.8/4.6/2.0/0.6; .549 Ts%, 12.6 tov%
’89: 29.7/5.5/6.5/2.0/0.5; .561 ts%, 12.2tov%
’90: 32.1/7.1/6.3/2.1/0.6; .566 ts%. 9.1otv%
with Jordan the best player in each series.

2) It’s worth noting that much of that defense was founded on a (successful) gamble that if you fouled enough, refs would feel they couldn’t call them all. If the league had reacted properly to the Pistons’ cheap play those series might have been different.

3) As noted above Wilt consistently put up impressive individual numbers on Russell (much more so than Russell put up on Wilt). So at an individual level that isn’t true. Boston put together a very impressive team defense, but as the league got better (see also: as the league got blacker) Boston remained ahead of the curve on D because they brought in /gave minutes to Satch, K.C. and Havlicek. Russell certainly made a large initial impact (on D, his net impact versus the early season ’57 Celtics is less clear), but I’m not sure it’s unambiguously Russell. And here see how Russell’s teams defeated Wilt’s often occurred by the 76ers perimeter guys shooting notably poorly. I can see Russell being a chunk of that, but saying that neither Boston’s renowned perimeter defenders nor luck played any part, that it was always all Russell. And that’s what it seems to be you do if you just point to team level stuff (this is more a general point than at Dr P here).

Defense is a team level endeavour. Now Russell was the leader, and in some small samples without him they got worse (specifically on that end), but I would suggest that those are unrepresentative in that they show a team that is used to playing in one way playing another way, and either failing to adapt to a new style or not trying to, which makes sense given the knowledge that Russell’s absence would be short term. K.C. Jones and Sanders were considered the best forward and guard defenders of that era and Havlicek’s defensive accolades are there for all to see.

Dr Spaceman wrote:He was probably he most adaptable players ever, and could just change his strategy in a heartbeat to counter whatever the offense was doing. This is a primary reason his contemporaries treat him with such reverence.

I think the term adaptable player needs qualifying with defensive. As noted elsewhere Russell was low usage and low efficiency at scoring versus his peers at his position. So the notion that he could take on a larger role, or become an efficient scorer is somewhat dubious. That would be a pretty major flaw in in the most adaptable player ever.

All that said I'm not arguing either way on your main point of Russell's defensive impact not being equivalent to MJ's offensive.
fpliii wrote:It would be very hard for me to pick against Russell here, but I'm going to wait on MJ arguments before making my decision. I think it very much is a two-man race for me (no disrespect to Wilt and KAJ).

Most voters have seen the strong defensive impact numbers on Russ (and the weak offensive numbers from the Celtics teams) as posted by ElGee. I'm sure he'll repost them in this thread once he makes his selection.

---

I posted these quotes on Russell's defensive range (thanks to ThaRegul8r for supplying them) recently in another thread, but I'm not sure if many have seen them, and they're relevant here:

"With Russell," said Hayes "you never know what to expect. He has such great lateral movement. He's always got an angle on you. He told me that he can take just two steps and block a shot from any position on the court. I remember the first time I was matched up against him. I was out in the corner and he was under the basket. I figured it was safe to shoot. But as I went up, there he was, tipping the shot.
(Pat Putnam, “Big E For Elvin's Two Big Efforts: His coach didn't let him go head-to-head with Chamberlain and Russell on successive nights, but Hayes wowed 'em anyway.” Sports Illustrated. Nov. 25, 1968. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/ ... /index.htm)


“Bill’s great mobility enabled him to block jump shots all over the court.”
— Pete Newell


“Russell would chase you everywhere. I’ve taken 20-footers that were blocked by Russell.”
— Johnny Kerr


“Bill Russell used to be able to go out and block shots. You’ve got to differentiate that from Wilt Chamberlain, who would block the shots coming to the basket, but Russell would go out and deter you from shooting.”
— Marty Blake, NBA Director of Scouting Services


“He was a unique defensive player because he could literally come out and play a guard or forward. Most centers can’t do that. Even today, there is no way that they can play guards, but he could do that.”
— Jerry West


“[H]e could go out and defend out on the perimeter, which seems to be a lost art today.”
— Marty Blake


“I’ve seen him come out and pick up players like Neil Johnston and Bob Pettit. He doesn’t stand in one spot.”
— Jacko Collins, supervisor of NBA officials


“He was so […] quick off the ball that he could double-team and trap you at a moment’s notice or jump out to help a defender on a pick and roll.”
— Oscar Robertson, The Big O: My Life, My Times, My Game, p. 142


On rebounding (related topic):

“Russell had an effective rebounding range of eighteen feet. If he was nine feet off to one side of the basket, he could race over to pull down a rebound nine feet off to the other side! I saw him do it many times. That’s the kind of athletic ability he had.”
— Tom Heinsohn, Give 'em the Hook, p. 64


---

One other note...I've seen Russell conflated with Mikan a few times in threads relating to this project. I feel like this is inappropriate for a couple of reasons:

1) Basketball is and always will be basketball, but I think the shotclock changed the game. I'd be very interested in research on players before/after the clock was implemented.

2) The NBA through the early-mid 50s (Mikan's era) was far different than Russell's era (which extended through the end of the 60s) partially because alleged quotas seemed to disappear. There were far more black players as we progress deeper into Russell's NBA, and his impact remained at or near the top of the league. I looked at the composition of the NBA in terms of % of players, % of games started, % of minutes played, and % of true shooting attempts (FGA+.44*FTA), and it paints a picture of two different leagues:

Image

---

Now, what I'm looking to learn about Russell:

The shooting/scoring in general is obviously is a concern. What quotes/evidence do we have in particular about how Boston ran their offense? Was the goal truly to get up more shots than the opponent? I just did some brief research on this:

Image

Columns 1 and 2 correspond to Russell, columns 3 and 4 correspond to his teammates, season by season. From the numbers, it seems like this was an equal opportunity offense for the most part, Russell doesn't seem too far removed from his teammates in terms of relative FG%. Among players who played at least half of their games that season, there were only 22 instances of players beating the league average by 2%:

Image

8 were Sam Jones, 5 Bill Russell, 3 Bill Sharman, 3 Bailey Howell, 2 Don Nelson, 1 Frank Ramsey. The cutoff is somewhat arbitrary, but if we extend it to all player-seasons above league average (<2% above, since those are covered above), players with multiple seasons in that range:

4 were Sam Jones, 4 Tom Sanders, 3 Tom Heinsohn, 3 Bill Russell, 2 John Havlicek, 2 Don Nelson, 2 Bill Sharman

Again though, I'd like some quotes before drawing any conclusions on this to demonstrate that inefficient shooting was by design.

---

As for what I'm looking to learn about MJ (I agree with pen that Wilt and KAJ would be the best four candidates, but I don't see myself voting for someone other than Russ/MJ here):

1) Does he have a case as the GOAT perimeter help defender? How much energy did he exert on that end, each season, through 92-93? How would playing today with stricter hand-checking guidelines affect his impact on that end?

2) A common thread in the Jordan Rules and new Lazenby book, is that teams took away the drive from MJ as defenses evolved (this is evident from watching MJ play against Detroit, and later the Knicks). Of course his post game (especially as he worked more and more with Grover) allowed him to still score inside, but I'm wondering, how much should we value his dribble penetration (which is at or near a GOAT level)?


Focusing on a couple of areas here first ...
Russell doesn't seem too far removed from his teammates in terms of relative FG%

Maybe not. But relative fg% doesn't account for
a) Russell's low usage levels
b) Russell's awful free throw shooting
or
c) the fact that centers are supposed to be the most efficient scoring option
cf:
For most of his career he was the worst or near worst ts% center (amongst those playing 30+ minutes) in the league and worst or near worst for usage
1961: 4 qualifying centers: 4th in fga/36, 3rd in ts% (ahead of Kerr) http://bkref.com/tiny/uwogY
1962: 5 qualifying centers: 4th in fga/36 (ahead of Kerr), 4th in ts% (ahead of Kerr) http://bkref.com/tiny/SU1Wr
1963: 6 qualifying centers: 6th in fga/36, 6th in ts% http://bkref.com/tiny/m16Yp
1964: 6 qualifying centers: 6th in fga/36, 6th in ts% http://bkref.com/tiny/LaIj9
1965: 9 qualifying centers: 9th in fga/36 , 6th in ts% (ahead of Jim Barnes -center status dubious-, Nate Thurmond, Reggie Harding) http://bkref.com/tiny/059SO
1966: 7 qualifying centers: 7th in fga/36, 7th in ts% http://bkref.com/tiny/qS3WW
1967: 8 qualifying centers: 8th in fga/36, 5th in ts% (ahead of Imhoff, Thurmond, LeRoy Ellis) http://bkref.com/tiny/fipMG
1968: 8 qualifying centers: 8th in fga/36, 8th in ts% http://bkref.com/tiny/16tyU
1969: 11 qualifying centers: 11th in fga/36, 10th in ts% (ahead of Thurmond) http://bkref.com/tiny/HeMin


In an offense where others weren't allowed to pick their shots (obviously this refers more to the earlier era where iirc the pace is higher and Russell played inside more) the low efficiency of Russell's shooting possessions was surely a substantial hamper to Boston playing efficient offense.

common thread in the Jordan Rules and new Lazenby book, is that teams took away the drive from MJ as defenses evolved (this is evident from watching MJ play against Detroit, and later the Knicks). Of course his post game (especially as he worked more and more with Grover) allowed him to still score inside, but I'm wondering, how much should we value his dribble penetration (which is at or near a GOAT level)?

IMO, we should value that he was a very high volume, very high efficiency scorer with a miniscule turnover %. I understand you're a skillset guy, but ultimately it's about the results. I'm not sure I believe any team could really stop MJ from penetrating, but if they could, my sugestion would be that they couldn't stop him scoring efficiently.

Anyway I vote for Jordan. I have (had?) an extended reasoning on my computer somewhere but the shorthand version is that he is top or near top by every measure

- Metrics: Top based on peak (LeBron now perhaps close, early Wilt close, Jabbar, Robinson and Shaq quite close), less career based numbers are available but he comes off well given his limited career minutes (see below).

- Playoff metrics: Top

- MVPs: Near top, with clear lead in MVP shares (may not be entirely fair on 60s guys)

- Longevity: Only (semi-weakness 11 great years in an era when you might expect more, still, 4th all time in RS Win Shares behind Kareem, Wilt and Karl Malone; 4th in career WARP (only post 80s era) to Stockton, Malone and Olajuwon but obviously, with fewer minutes, more concentrated greatness)

- Team Results: Second only to Russell (and in an era when it was harder to maintain a dynasty with free agency, salary caps; and a lower expected championship probability with 27-29 teams during Jordan’s title years). Note also that Russell arrived on a team that was 16-8 (and with substantial turnover from the prior year) and so despite a clear impact on defense it is not simple to get a clear read on Russell’s net impact. To put it briefly I believe Russell did benefit from very good teammates.

Then too Jordan is well rounded, lacking in flaws. Chamberlain had free throws, Russell free throws and shooting/scoring. Jabbar was very well rounded for a big. Magic was poor defender early in his career, okay later. Robertson and then maybe Bird are strong in this area. This isn’t an area where I put huge weight, it’s the amount of impact not how it was distributed, but if there are weaknesses they need to be balanced out, and strong across the board players might tend to be a bit more portable.

One last thing in favour of Jordan (albeit this isn’t strong evidence, and indeed could be argued as weak competition) Jordan was clearly and pretty much unanimously the best player of his era. Given Russell is his main rival here I’ll list how often Russell swept the board with MVP, All-NBA first team and all known media-MVP awards, once (’65). In ’63, his other 1st team appearance over Wilt, Baylor collared the Metropolitan Sportwriters Sam Davis Memorial Award for Most Valuable Pro Player. Wilt claimed unofficial, i.e. media, MVPs when he wasn’t the official MVP (but was first team all NBA) he took the United States Basketball Writers MVP in ’64, the Metropolitan Sportwriters Sam Davis Memorial Award for Most Valuable Pro Player in ’62 and the ’64 the Metropolitan Sportwriters Sam Davis Memorial Award for Most Valuable Pro Player though officially unknown will have went to him Wilt or Robertson (my suspicion is Wilt).

So my vote is: Jordan
For what it is worth my next preferences are Jabbar then Chamberlain.
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Re: RealGM NBA Top 100 list -- #! 

Post#108 » by Basketballefan » Sun Jun 29, 2014 5:20 pm

colts18 wrote:I can't vote for Russell because he was a bad offensive player in his era, just imagine how bad that would be in this era.

But Russell carried the Celtics to 11 titles with his defense.

His lack of offensive game doesn't matter because he won 11 titles all with his defense and rebounding.
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Re: RealGM NBA Top 100 list -- #! 

Post#109 » by andrewww » Sun Jun 29, 2014 5:20 pm

A lot of great arguments have been made as to whether or not Russell would've really impacted the game in today's NBA or even in the modern era as a whole.

If you look at the playing style and impact, I think the closest modern comparison for me would be KG based on defensive impact across the board as both a mobile and elite post defender (though KG was know more for versatility and IQ than just simply elite post defense imo). Their offensive impact is comparable in the sense that they are good, but not really that great despite the stats. KG was never a guy you'd feel comfortable dumping the ball into as a go-to scroer if the game was on the line and you needed a bucket.

The argument for Russell is obviously the results that led to 11 rings, othewise by most metrics people would consider Wilt and he's not even in the consensus top 3. I do think a grain of assuault needs to give people perspective on the competition of the league at the time. Additionally, would Russell be able to get away with his simply good but not great offensive game with modern rules including the 3pt line. I think the style and pace of the game back then with no 3pt line to keep the defense honest favours Russell greatly and a benefit that someone like say...Duncan/Hakeem/Robinson didn't get the benefit of.

Man for man, I have a tough time putting Russell as the GOAT when you consider so many favourable circumstances that help pave the way for 11 rings. Career-wise, he deserves to be in the discussion but the question I ask is..if my life depended on it and I had to draft a team of players knowing what I know today..there is no question in my mind that a player like Hakeem would be my pick over someone like Russell when we're picking big men.

I understand I don't have a vote for now since I confirmed joining just a bit late, but my hypothetical vote would be for Michael Jordan. He's the GOAT, but not necessarily the offensive GOAT (my vote goes to Magic for that). Much the way LeBron was the best individual player in the 2014 Finals, but his team was the not the best offense if that makes sense.
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Re: RealGM NBA Top 100 list -- #! 

Post#110 » by Mutnt » Sun Jun 29, 2014 5:23 pm

fpliii wrote:
lorak wrote:
fpliii wrote:2) Russell had a slightly bigger role offensively, and that detracted from his defense.


Interesting, because quite often Russell's or Wilt's supporters point out something like that in discussions about Rodman - that he was focusing only on one side of the ball (defense) or only one thing (rebounding), so even if numbers say he was better defender or rebounder than Russell or Wilt, we shouldn't trust them, because Wilt and Russell also did more on offense. So wouldn't the same work here against Bill when we compare him with two way players like Hakeem or Duncan? Maybe their defensive impact was bigger than Russell's after all, but it's not so easily seen, because they also had tons of responsibility on offensive end?

1) It would, but it's speculation on my part. If we could prove that it did indeed detract from his defense, this would be a big negative for Russ.

The thing about Rodman is, during the seasons he posted his biggest rebounding numbers, it seems in the playoffs his rebounding tailed off, and his defense improved. During the season, some have claimed that Rodman's rebounding detracted from his defense.

The playoff defense improved in the second year pretty noticeably for Russell's Celtics, even if the regular season jump wasn't too big (-4.9 to -5.2 according to B-R: http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/).

2) Regarding Hakeem/Duncan, that's possible and it could be the case. I wonder, would that work for Shaq/Wilt/Kareem the other way then (offense-first guys for the most part)? That if they didn't focus on offense, they could've been much better defensive players? Maybe Thurmond too, because he took a ton of shots.


This is something that should be noted. Sometimes ability gets taken for granted because not all players are put in equal position (for different reasons) to devote most of their limited energy into excelling at one or two things.

People like to think along the line of:

60's Celtics - how did they win?
= primarily via playing defense -> who was by far the most responsible for that?
= Russell

Nothing wrong with that, as it would be stupid not to let Russell predominantly focus on things he thrives in (same as any other player), but some other all-time greats didn't have that kind of luxury. Like, we know Hakeem was awesome on defense, basically every evidence points to that, but we will never know what his true potential in terms of him impacting the defense might have been because Houston simply couldn't score reliably without Hakeem also exerting himself tremendously on offense. This often gets turned into a 'sly' for Hakeem in a way that ''Hakeem didn't have the same type of impact on defense than Russell.'' Well, obviously, besides a gazillion factors, one of them is also the fact that he had (and had to) the sort of impact offensively that Russell didn't have the ability to come close to replicating and thinking that didn't take away from what he was able to fully do defensively is disingenuous
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Re: RealGM NBA Top 100 list -- #! 

Post#111 » by MisterWestside » Sun Jun 29, 2014 5:25 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:To be fair, even Russell detractors who think he wouldn't be nearly the same guy in a modern era should be looking at the impact numbers for Russell in his era and going crazy over them. Just like we are going to go crazy over some of the Nash impact numbers when we get to him. Just because Nash might not could have done the same thing in the 60's doesnt mean we can't be in awe of what he actually did in the 00's. Same thing for Russell in his.

No matter how poorly someone thinks he would fare now, there is no ignoring what he did in his era. I can't understand why you have a problem that people are impressed with his play in his own era. I understand the different viewpoint where guys want to compare and project how players will do in different eras and I understand the arguments for suggesting Russell wouldnt be near a GOAT candidate today. What I don't understand is this idea that we shouldn't be impressed by what he actually did when he actually played. It's frankly beyond any reasonable dispute.


That's why I keep two separate GOAT rankings, TC. And guess who tops one of the rankings? :)

But, if you're going to then directly compare Russell to his modern-day counterparts or talk about how he would perform in the modern NBA, that argument flies out of the window, and more abstraction is required.
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Re: RealGM NBA Top 100 list -- #! 

Post#112 » by Baller2014 » Sun Jun 29, 2014 5:26 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
MisterWestside wrote:We're not asking for the MVP of the era; we're asking a question as it relates to a player's skills and team roster construction in the modern NBA.



And its fine for you to take that approach. But we aren't all doing that. And that's fine too.


Cool. George Mikan is in your top 10 players of all-time, right?
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Re: RealGM NBA Top 100 list -- #! 

Post#113 » by ceiling raiser » Sun Jun 29, 2014 5:28 pm

Owly wrote:Focusing on a couple of areas here first ...
Russell doesn't seem too far removed from his teammates in terms of relative FG%

Maybe not. But relative fg% doesn't account for
a) Russell's low usage levels
b) Russell's awful free throw shooting
or
c) the fact that centers are supposed to be the most efficient scoring option
cf:
For most of his career he was the worst or near worst ts% center (amongst those playing 30+ minutes) in the league and worst or near worst for usage
1961: 4 qualifying centers: 4th in fga/36, 3rd in ts% (ahead of Kerr) http://bkref.com/tiny/uwogY
1962: 5 qualifying centers: 4th in fga/36 (ahead of Kerr), 4th in ts% (ahead of Kerr) http://bkref.com/tiny/SU1Wr
1963: 6 qualifying centers: 6th in fga/36, 6th in ts% http://bkref.com/tiny/m16Yp
1964: 6 qualifying centers: 6th in fga/36, 6th in ts% http://bkref.com/tiny/LaIj9
1965: 9 qualifying centers: 9th in fga/36 , 6th in ts% (ahead of Jim Barnes -center status dubious-, Nate Thurmond, Reggie Harding) http://bkref.com/tiny/059SO
1966: 7 qualifying centers: 7th in fga/36, 7th in ts% http://bkref.com/tiny/qS3WW
1967: 8 qualifying centers: 8th in fga/36, 5th in ts% (ahead of Imhoff, Thurmond, LeRoy Ellis) http://bkref.com/tiny/fipMG
1968: 8 qualifying centers: 8th in fga/36, 8th in ts% http://bkref.com/tiny/16tyU
1969: 11 qualifying centers: 11th in fga/36, 10th in ts% (ahead of Thurmond) http://bkref.com/tiny/HeMin


In an offense where others weren't allowed to pick their shots (obviously this refers more to the earlier era where iirc the pace is higher and Russell played inside more) the low efficiency of Russell's shooting possessions was surely a substantial hamper to Boston playing efficient offense.

common thread in the Jordan Rules and new Lazenby book, is that teams took away the drive from MJ as defenses evolved (this is evident from watching MJ play against Detroit, and later the Knicks). Of course his post game (especially as he worked more and more with Grover) allowed him to still score inside, but I'm wondering, how much should we value his dribble penetration (which is at or near a GOAT level)?

IMO, we should value that he was a very high volume, very high efficiency scorer with a miniscule turnover %. I understand you're a skillset guy, but ultimately it's about the results. I'm not sure I believe any team could really stop MJ from penetrating, but if they could, my sugestion would be that they couldn't stop him scoring efficiently.

Great post, very happy to have you as part of the project. :)

Russell: Relative FG% doesn't account for those things, and I definitely agree with (b). But as for (a) and (b), how much of this can we attribute to the Celtics being a roughly equal opportunity offense? I'm not sure if you saw these quotes posted (I think on page 4):

:
Tom Heinsohn: We had a very simple objective at the start of every game: We were going to take more shots than the other team, as many more as we could. So the less time we wasted bringing the ball upcourt, the more shots we’d get, and the easier those shots would probably be because the defense would be caught unprepared.

We were trained to play at a pace other teams didn’t like, to extend ourselves 100 percent every minute we were out there. Other coaches preferred to slow the pace so that their players would still be strong at the end of the game if they had to go the full forty-eight minutes. Red’s approach was just the opposite: Turn the contest into a physical test of wills!

Even if other teams were able to match us shot for shot, they weren’t getting as many good shots as the game wore on because they were being forced to think quicker, shoot quicker, and make decisions quicker, invariably leading to more turnovers than they were accustomed to committing.

We didn’t waste a lot of time looking for the perfect shots, the way other teams did. Our idea was to overwhelm the opposition by the number of shots we took; the emphasis was clearly on quantity.

The mathematics of that approach were obvious. If we took 100 shots and made only 40 percent, we’d still have as many points as a team that took 80 shots and made 50 percent. The meant if the other team was trying to limit its number of shots by playing a slower game, it was going to have to shoot a much higher percentage than we did in order to beat us.

We weren’t worried about percentages. People look back at those Celtics today and say, “Hey, Cousy shot only 38 percent,” but that’s a misunderstanding of the way we played.

The constant battle was to find ways to upbeat the tempo and to never allow the other team to slow us down; more important, to never allow them time to catch their breath or to think. […] With Cousy and Russell perfecting what they knew at opposite ends of the floor, allowing us to become more and more assertive all the time, we were simply too much for most teams to withstand. We were the marines, baby! Charge! That was us: the leathernecks of the NBA, charging up Pork Chop Hill every night.
— Tommy Heinsohn and Joe Fitzgerald, Give ’em the Hook (Prentice Hall, 1988), pp. 81-82


John Havlicek: The Celtics have never won by field goal percentage. On at least one occasion they had the worst team shooting percentage in the league. But they took the most shots and they also accomplished their main objective, which was to win the championship. The Celtics have been blessed with a succession of great rebounders, from Bill Russell to Dave Cowens and Paul Silas, who have enabled them to have possession of the ball more than other teams. The rule of thumb for me, and for every other Celtic, has been, ‘If you’ve got the shot, take it. Otherwise you’re no good to us.’ This is not to say that your better shooters shouldn’t get the ball in key situations. It means that, as Red says, you can’t let them insult you. There is nothing wrong with a so-so shooter taking an open shot when there are good offensive rebounders positioned underneath the basket.
— John Havlicek and Bob Ryan, Hondo: Celtic Man in Motion (Prentice-Hall, 1977), p. 91


MJ: I am a skillset guy, but skills are useless without results (though I think impact numbers are limited in use without context, so it goes both ways IMO). I understand where you're coming from, but I wasn't so much trying to question his penetrating ability. I was just wondering whether his inside scoring coming from drives was as valuable as his post scoring (which would always be available in some form, regardless of defense faced)?
Now that's the difference between first and last place.
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Re: RealGM NBA Top 100 list -- #! 

Post#114 » by Mutnt » Sun Jun 29, 2014 5:41 pm

My vote for #1: Micheal Jordan

I've contemplated Russell and Kareem but after doing some research and reading a lot of interesting posts in this topic I've concluded that Jordan, as I've always thought, deserves the GOAT spot.

I know I'm sort of required to give reasoning but after reading Owly's post on this page I can basically say that he pretty much summed up my thoughts of why Jordan before anyone else.

EDIT:

Russell would probably be my choice IF I ignored era-specific context, ability + other minor factors, which is not how I like to evaluate my players.

Kareem is an interesting case. We are looking at quite a noticeable lead Kareem has in longevity but to me that can't offset the fact that Jordan was just more consistent, dominant & sustained a higher level of impact throughout more years than Kareem. If both players careers coincided since day one, considering pretty much equal supporting casts and coaching talent, I believe that Jordan would outperform Kareem and give his team a higher chance of winning.
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Re: RealGM NBA Top 100 list -- #1 

Post#115 » by DHodgkins » Sun Jun 29, 2014 6:21 pm

Vote: Michael Jordan

- 6 for 6 in the NBA Finals with 6 Finals MVP's
- Best team record in a single season (72-10)
- Highest PPG in NBA History
- 8 seasons of 30+ PPG
- Raised his PPG, RPG, APG in the playoffs compared to RSeason
- 7x league leader in PER ... 9x league leader in WS
GTGTPWTW
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Re: RealGM NBA Top 100 list -- #! 

Post#116 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Jun 29, 2014 6:28 pm

Vote: Bill Russell

So I'll say up front that I expect Michael Jordan to take the #1 spot again, and that really doesn't bother me in the slightest. He's an excellent candidate. I do consider Russell's case a bit stronger though, and I intend to speak to that in this thread more to do my best that everyone gets why he's so impressive in general.

Since though people have already said a lot of great stuff (awesome to see such heavy hitting, great start to the project), it doesn't really seem that beneficial to lay it out like a blog post that assumes people know nothing. Key points for me then:

1. Analysis of Russell's GOAT candidacy starts for most of us by comparing him to Wilt Chamberlain. Most in the world see Wilt as the more impressive of the two, and I used to as well. Most here seem sold on Russell over Wilt so I won't belabor the point other than to emphasize that this is a really big deal. While most of you know that I have some pretty chippy criticisms of Wilt, his physical talent would be an outlier in any era, so besting him proves quite a lot.

2. People often see Russell's size as an issue. I point out how he handled Wilt as something to reassure them. I'll also point out though that there's no real reason to be terribly concerned with Russell's size based on what we see in today's game. The best defenders are always interior help defenders, and that requires length, quickness, and intelligence. I would submit Russell should be given the edge in intelligence over any similar player in the history of the NBA (we can talk about Larry Bird, etc, but he's a different type of player obviously), that people should be very careful about giving any other big a quickness edge over Russell, and that realistically there are diminishing turns relating to length once you get past a certain point.

I still look at Russell as clear cut the archetype for how you'd build a defender today, in other words.

3. Once I got past Russell vs Wilt, I started thinking about Russell vs Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. For a good while I favored Kareem based on a perception of two-way impact and longevity.

The longevity thing is actually a pretty trite argument for me though at this point. When we talk about players who played what they considered a complete career, we don't really have any reason to think they couldn't have kept on contributing value to their team if there'd been an urge to do so. Russell won 11 titles, it's surely a complete career.

What about the two-way impact? Two things to think about:

1) Remember those years smack dab in Kareem's prime where his teams did nothing special.

2) Understand how drastically off the charts Boston's defense was when Russell was at his apex.

I look at these things, and I give Russell the impact edge despite Kareem's clear edge on offense, and really this is what roughly holds true for me about Russell vs other in general. In other words, don't reply to me looking to defend Kareem here, because I'm not knocking Kareem really. The notion that a superstar can always turn any team into a contender is clearly a myth, and people would do well to remember Kareem when they look to knock others.

I'm not claiming that Russell a clear cut exception to this rule, but his impact on opposing defense was like nothing we've seen since.

4. "But could Russell do something like that now?". I'm willing to say I think he'd be less effective today. I think he'd still be the best defender, and I think his offense would shock people with how much better his numbers would look. However, I don't have a problem saying that I'd probably look at LeBron James was the better prospect were they coming out now for this league.

Should that knock Russell out of contention for the top spot? i don't think so. I do not see a GOAT list as something that should simply ask "How would they do now?". Let's take a clearly absurd example of where such thinking would take you:

"Yeah, Lincoln was great during the Civil War, but that doesn't give me any reason to think he'd be great against a financial crisis, and it's not like slavery's an issue any more." :wink:

I'm not advocating for Russell based simply on dominance over his era - you have to figure in degree of difficulty as well, and this is why I largely ignore earlier eras this hype up on the GOAT list. Quite frankly, if Russell just dominated in those late 50s-early 60s years, it would be a major issue for me too.

However, Russell kept on dominating. Leagues coming of age follow S-curves, like a growing business does:

Image

The thing is that Russell's career spans the rapid skill growth era. Unprecedented change in that 13 years, and there basically was never any answer for Russell no matter how the change occurred. That's just crazy. Basically, I think it's naive to assume other players could have thrived throughout all these changes like Russell did.

5. The battle of the "perfect" careers: Russell vs Michael Jordan.

I think that in the end, those who put Russell at #2 behind only Jordan, are likely to see Jordan as the 2nd guy with a perfect career, but since he did it in a later - and presumed more competitive era - tie goes to him. This makes sense to me, except that I don't see Jordan's career as the same type of perfection.

If we make a list of most consecutive NBA titles, the list looks like this:

1. Boston 8
2. everyone else 3

I would assert that this distinction should be seen as night & day. I understand that people have a tendency to want to essentially give Jordan a 6-peat, but in both 3-peat it was clear that the Bulls were fading toward the end, and clearly from what we saw in '95 the Bulls don't get back to winning titles without making some personnel adjustments.

Getting into retirements and related issues: Jordan's 3 retirements are a joke. Yes there were unusual circumstances the first time, and yes he'd eventually have to retire a 2nd time as a result. 3 retirements though is a sign of a restless soul, particularly when you look at some of those details - the baseball, the stupidity of his approach to Washington.

In short: What makes Russell truly stand out over Wilt, is also what makes him stand out over Jordan. Russell was a guy who could truly indefinitely just focus on the task at hand and do what needed to be done. He wasn't a guy staring across a fence thinking about the grass being greener...and that's the reason why he could win 8 titles in a row. I'm not going to say he's the only basketball player in history who had the brain to do that...but Jordan wasn't one of those guys.

6. On the "perfect" note, I've seen people also talk about Jordan as "the perfect player". He wasn't. Not saying anyone else was, and I'm not saying he was imperfect because he wasn't the GOAT at everything, I'm saying he has clear myopic limitations.

The issue is simply that first and foremost, Jordan was a volume scorer, and the typical mentality of the volume scorer is to focus on their individual attack rather than the team attack. If you're good enough at your individual attack relative to your teammates and your opponents, that might be good enough for you to be the most valuable offensive player in the world, but to the extent that Jordan is the archetype of this, he's also showed us the limitations here.

Remember the Dream Team where the USA's offense operated in a state of passing ecstasy that would make Pop gasp...except for one man still chucking as hard as he could. Barkley shots 76% TS, the team shoot 64%, Jordan shoots 49%. Everyone got the memo except Jordan, who of course was going around in practice emphasizing "I'm the man now, it's my game, it's my team.". People talk about that like it's impressive, really it displays a fundamental cluelessness about how basketball works. Had the other guys not had such great attitudes (Magic first among them), we might have had something much like an Iverson-Marbury type of team like in 2004.

I get that the huge success of that team makes many think that Jordan would have changed his way if the team were truly struggling, but...we saw how Jordan reacted in Washington. There he came in their already knowing it was unwise of him to try to volume score. That his only purpose was to help other guys come into their own. But he just couldn't help himself. He went back to his old ways despite the fact his skills weren't anywhere near good enough to achieve anything this way, all the way continuing to "lead" with a brutality that as we saw there, was fully capable of simply reducing his teammates into vegetables. It's stupid, plain and simple.

All of that though, while it's the most egregious flaw in his mentality, doesn't actually change very much the direct he had on his NBA career. I think though it's crucial to understand these limitations to appreciate how fortunate Jordan was in the team that got built around him in Chicago.

Remember that before Phil Jackson, Jordan had never led anything beyond a mediocre team offense. While this in and of itself isn't damning - human basketball players have human limitations - it's crucial to understand that it's much more difficult to make a decent offense insanely good than it is to make a bad offense decent. The Bulls were on a plateau until Jackson.

Now, I'm not actually trying to say Jackson deserves all the credit, or that Jordan deserves no credit for adapting to the new scheme, but this was an offense whose major competitive advantage was at least as much offensive rebounding as it was Jordan's scoring. Ponder that while remember how Jordan played on the Dream Team and in Washington.

This type of customized offense architecture is not something that a Magic or a Bird needs in order to make beautiful things happen on offense, nor is it what Russell needed on defense. Jordan was extremely fortunate to finally get into the right situation, or else people might forever question whether his individualist game could truly lead to team excellence, because it sure as heck was no given that it would have happened.
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Re: RealGM NBA Top 100 list -- #! 

Post#117 » by Owly » Sun Jun 29, 2014 6:30 pm

fpliii wrote:
Owly wrote:Focusing on a couple of areas here first ...
Russell doesn't seem too far removed from his teammates in terms of relative FG%

Maybe not. But relative fg% doesn't account for
a) Russell's low usage levels
b) Russell's awful free throw shooting
or
c) the fact that centers are supposed to be the most efficient scoring option
cf:
For most of his career he was the worst or near worst ts% center (amongst those playing 30+ minutes) in the league and worst or near worst for usage
1961: 4 qualifying centers: 4th in fga/36, 3rd in ts% (ahead of Kerr) http://bkref.com/tiny/uwogY
1962: 5 qualifying centers: 4th in fga/36 (ahead of Kerr), 4th in ts% (ahead of Kerr) http://bkref.com/tiny/SU1Wr
1963: 6 qualifying centers: 6th in fga/36, 6th in ts% http://bkref.com/tiny/m16Yp
1964: 6 qualifying centers: 6th in fga/36, 6th in ts% http://bkref.com/tiny/LaIj9
1965: 9 qualifying centers: 9th in fga/36 , 6th in ts% (ahead of Jim Barnes -center status dubious-, Nate Thurmond, Reggie Harding) http://bkref.com/tiny/059SO
1966: 7 qualifying centers: 7th in fga/36, 7th in ts% http://bkref.com/tiny/qS3WW
1967: 8 qualifying centers: 8th in fga/36, 5th in ts% (ahead of Imhoff, Thurmond, LeRoy Ellis) http://bkref.com/tiny/fipMG
1968: 8 qualifying centers: 8th in fga/36, 8th in ts% http://bkref.com/tiny/16tyU
1969: 11 qualifying centers: 11th in fga/36, 10th in ts% (ahead of Thurmond) http://bkref.com/tiny/HeMin


In an offense where others weren't allowed to pick their shots (obviously this refers more to the earlier era where iirc the pace is higher and Russell played inside more) the low efficiency of Russell's shooting possessions was surely a substantial hamper to Boston playing efficient offense.

common thread in the Jordan Rules and new Lazenby book, is that teams took away the drive from MJ as defenses evolved (this is evident from watching MJ play against Detroit, and later the Knicks). Of course his post game (especially as he worked more and more with Grover) allowed him to still score inside, but I'm wondering, how much should we value his dribble penetration (which is at or near a GOAT level)?

IMO, we should value that he was a very high volume, very high efficiency scorer with a miniscule turnover %. I understand you're a skillset guy, but ultimately it's about the results. I'm not sure I believe any team could really stop MJ from penetrating, but if they could, my sugestion would be that they couldn't stop him scoring efficiently.

Great post, very happy to have you as part of the project. :)

Russell: Relative FG% doesn't account for those things, and I definitely agree with (b). But as for (a) and (b), how much of this can we attribute to the Celtics being a roughly equal opportunity offense? I'm not sure if you saw these quotes posted (I think on page 4):

:
Tom Heinsohn: We had a very simple objective at the start of every game: We were going to take more shots than the other team, as many more as we could. So the less time we wasted bringing the ball upcourt, the more shots we’d get, and the easier those shots would probably be because the defense would be caught unprepared.

We were trained to play at a pace other teams didn’t like, to extend ourselves 100 percent every minute we were out there. Other coaches preferred to slow the pace so that their players would still be strong at the end of the game if they had to go the full forty-eight minutes. Red’s approach was just the opposite: Turn the contest into a physical test of wills!

Even if other teams were able to match us shot for shot, they weren’t getting as many good shots as the game wore on because they were being forced to think quicker, shoot quicker, and make decisions quicker, invariably leading to more turnovers than they were accustomed to committing.

We didn’t waste a lot of time looking for the perfect shots, the way other teams did. Our idea was to overwhelm the opposition by the number of shots we took; the emphasis was clearly on quantity.

The mathematics of that approach were obvious. If we took 100 shots and made only 40 percent, we’d still have as many points as a team that took 80 shots and made 50 percent. The meant if the other team was trying to limit its number of shots by playing a slower game, it was going to have to shoot a much higher percentage than we did in order to beat us.

We weren’t worried about percentages. People look back at those Celtics today and say, “Hey, Cousy shot only 38 percent,” but that’s a misunderstanding of the way we played.

The constant battle was to find ways to upbeat the tempo and to never allow the other team to slow us down; more important, to never allow them time to catch their breath or to think. […] With Cousy and Russell perfecting what they knew at opposite ends of the floor, allowing us to become more and more assertive all the time, we were simply too much for most teams to withstand. We were the marines, baby! Charge! That was us: the leathernecks of the NBA, charging up Pork Chop Hill every night.
— Tommy Heinsohn and Joe Fitzgerald, Give ’em the Hook (Prentice Hall, 1988), pp. 81-82


John Havlicek: The Celtics have never won by field goal percentage. On at least one occasion they had the worst team shooting percentage in the league. But they took the most shots and they also accomplished their main objective, which was to win the championship. The Celtics have been blessed with a succession of great rebounders, from Bill Russell to Dave Cowens and Paul Silas, who have enabled them to have possession of the ball more than other teams. The rule of thumb for me, and for every other Celtic, has been, ‘If you’ve got the shot, take it. Otherwise you’re no good to us.’ This is not to say that your better shooters shouldn’t get the ball in key situations. It means that, as Red says, you can’t let them insult you. There is nothing wrong with a so-so shooter taking an open shot when there are good offensive rebounders positioned underneath the basket.
— John Havlicek and Bob Ryan, Hondo: Celtic Man in Motion (Prentice-Hall, 1977), p. 91


MJ: I am a skillset guy, but skills are useless without results (though I think impact numbers are limited in use without context, so it goes both ways IMO). I understand where you're coming from, but I wasn't so much trying to question his penetrating ability. I was just wondering whether his inside scoring coming from drives was as valuable as his post scoring (which would always be available in some form, regardless of defense faced)?

I'd glanced through the quotes (read properly now) but was already aware of what I think Heinsohn called a "pressure offense". But was Russell's combination of inefficency and low volume shooting down to that. Possibly very slightly, but I'd generally not. In part because Russell shot so much less frequently than the others that he must have been able to pick his spots/shots more. In part because I suspect he was usually the one Havlicek describes as being under the basket enabling the quick shot (or at least anticipating a quick shot and getting good rebounding position before the D is set), and in part because I think when he beat his man up court the shots he was or should have been taking shouldn't be low percentage. It might explain usage a little if he wasn't getting post ups, but then (again particularly in the earlier years with the faster pace, before Thurmond and Reed and more athletic rivals in the pivot) if he's beating his man up court (which he perhaps should be with his athleticism) why isn't he laying it in (and ditto off the offensive glass). Perhaps he was and that's why he was semi-efficient in the first 4 years. But the low volume and low efficiency in concert are a major concern to me, especially when we're talking about putting him first. Add in how well Boston started without him (and without a strong offensive player in Frank Ramsey) in '57 and you get my present position that Russell's impact on an offense is (in terms of a GOAT candidate) a significant concern.

And in general the quick shot offense (i.e. the acknowledgement that it was a strategic choice, minimising turnovers, crashing the offensive boards, and through their D too, getting more possessions) isn't great for the Russell case because it suggests Boston's "inefficient" offense wasn't really mediocre and thus somewhat counteracts the suggestion Boston were great exclusively on D, Russell was great on D therefore Boston were great almost exclusively because of Russell, and he didn't really have a good supporting cast. Now obviously Russell's rebounding would be a part of that offense but it moves the debate from "Russell must have had crazy levels of defensive impact" where it's basically all credit to Russell to "Russell was a very good defender (GOAT at this end) and a very good rebounder (which we have already accounted for in the boxscore)", which allows for other substantial contributors.
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Re: RealGM NBA Top 100 list -- #! 

Post#118 » by ceiling raiser » Sun Jun 29, 2014 6:48 pm

Owly wrote:I'd glanced through the quotes (read properly now) but was already aware of what I think Heinsohn called a "pressure offense". But was Russell's combination of inefficency and low volume shooting down to that. Possibly very slightly, but I'd generally not. In part because Russell shot so much less frequently than the others that he must have been able to pick his spots/shots more. In part because I suspect he was usually the one Havlicek describes as being under the basket enabling the quick shot (or at least anticipating a quick shot and getting good rebounding position before the D is set), and in part because I think when he beat his man up court the shots he was or should have been taking shouldn't be low percentage. It might explain usage a little if he wasn't getting post ups, but then (again particularly in the earlier years with the faster pace, before Thurmond and Reed and more athletic rivals in the pivot) if he's beating his man up court (which he perhaps should be with his athleticism) why isn't he laying it in (and ditto off the offensive glass). Perhaps he was and that's why he was semi-efficient in the first 4 years. But the low volume and low efficiency in concert are a major concern to me, especially when we're talking about putting him first. Add in how well Boston started without him (and without a strong offensive player in Frank Ramsey) in '57 and you get my present position that Russell's impact on an offense is (in terms of a GOAT candidate) a significant concern.

And in general the quick shot offense (i.e. the acknowledgement that it was a strategic choice, minimising turnovers, crashing the offensive boards, and through their D too, getting more possessions) isn't great for the Russell case because it suggests Boston's "inefficient" offense wasn't really mediocre and thus somewhat counteracts the suggestion Boston were great exclusively on D, Russell was great on D therefore Boston were great almost exclusively because of Russell, and he didn't really have a good supporting cast. Now obviously Russell's rebounding would be a part of that offense but it moves the debate from "Russell must have had crazy levels of defensive impact" where it's basically all credit to Russell to "Russell was a very good defender (GOAT at this end) and a very good rebounder (which we have already accounted for in the boxscore)", which allows for other substantial contributors.

1) Until the end of his career, was Russ really shooting that much less frequently than his teammates? He generally had a decent number of attempts in terms of FGA or TSA (FGA+.44*FTA) I believe. I could be mistaken, I'm on my phone at the moment and don't have the data in front if me.

2) How often was he beating his man up the court if he was throwing outlet passes after grabbing defensive rebounds? I can't imagine it was very often, since from my understanding the outlet pass to a guard initiated the offense.

3) I'm not sure that I follow the bolded. If the inefficient offense was by design, how would that change how great Boston was on defense as opposed to offense as a team (see the ORtg/DRtg numbers) in terms of performance? Now, I do think that what the bolded means, is that the offensive talent was intentionally underutilized. Meaning that because of how effective they were defensively, they could afford to play the relatively equal opportunity offense they did, even if it wasn't optimal in terms of efficiency.
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Re: RealGM NBA Top 100 list -- #! 

Post#119 » by ElGee » Sun Jun 29, 2014 6:51 pm

therealbig3 wrote:If we shouldn't assume how a player is affected by their era, and just take their impact as is...then why isn't George Mikan ever considered the GOAT on anyone's list? I get it, this project is focusing on the post-shot clock era...but in general, I don't ever see Mikan's name anywhere close to the top spot on any list.


Because the difference between basketball in 1951 and 1961 is greater than the difference between basketball in 1961 and 1981.

We all agree there was evolution. it just wasn't linear -- it was rapid and exponential. The draw of television money and and acceptance of black players, coupled with astronomical size rules changes like widening the lane and the advent of the shot-clock changed the game more in a 10-15 year span than it has probably changed since. That's the whole idea being drawing a line in the sand (for simplicity, admittedly) and the reason why there is bias against an era like Mikan's.

I've mentioned this before, but the Celtics went back-to-back in 68 and 69 by beating the Knicks and the Lakers. West, Chamberlain, Reed, Frazier, Debuscherre, etc. These teams went on to dominate the early 70's...at which point the NBA (IMO) was weakened from ABA poaching, and there wasn't a team that anyone (then or now?) considered to be superior to the late 60's/early 70's lineups until (arguably) the 77 Blazers and certainly the 1980's. Say what you will about 1955 or even 1960, but the mid to late 60's clearly had:

    -Completely changed racially. Per fpliii's amazing post earlier, 16% of the league minutes were black in 1958...just 7 years later it was 57%. That's a meteoric change.

    -Added size. See league averages in height -- there's large change by the mid/late 60's.

    -Added offensive strategy -- I'm thinking of Oscar as a trend-setter with working around picks. The Lakers usage of Princeton principles in 1968. Etc.
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Re: RealGM NBA Top 100 list -- #! 

Post#120 » by lorak » Sun Jun 29, 2014 7:08 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
1) Remember those years smack dab in Kareem's prime where his teams did nothing special.


And you really think Russell would do more with that mid 70s Bucks and especially Lakers teams?

LeBron in Cleveland or KG in Minnesota look like paradise in comparison with Jabbar's mid 70s situation. There are games on youtube, when Lakers backcourt players were unable to get the ball past midcourt on multiple consecutive possessions... that's how awful supporting cast he had. I really wonder how is it possible, that Russell would do more with them? Seems like Kareem is underrated, while in fact he should be discussed more here, because his case against Jordan is stronger than Russell's.


I'm not advocating for Russell based simply on dominance over his era - you have to figure in degree of difficulty as well, and this is why I largely ignore earlier eras this hype up on the GOAT list. Quite frankly, if Russell just dominated in those late 50s-early 60s years, it would be a major issue for me too.

However, Russell kept on dominating. Leagues coming of age follow S-curves, like a growing business does:


The thing is that Russell's career spans the rapid skill growth era. Unprecedented change in that 13 years, and there basically was never any answer for Russell no matter how the change occurred. That's just crazy.


The thing is Russell didn't dominate all the time. His teams clearly were better in first half of the 60s, than later. Of course he was older, but still:

Code: Select all

W/L%    SRS  Rel_ORtg Rel_DRtg    Russell
0,701   5,8   -0,5      -5,5   first 4 years
0,742   6,8   -3,0      -9,0   middle 5 years
0,665   5,2   -1,0      -5,6   last 4 years


Is that impressive enough to put him 1st on GOAT list? Well, for comparison sake Duncan during his first 13 seasons:

Code: Select all

W/L%    SRS  Rel_ORtg Rel_DRtg    Duncan
0,689   6,1   1,3      -5,8   first 4 years
0,724   6,8   1,2      -6,3   middle 5 years
0,665   5,5   1,3      -4,9   last 4 years


So Russell's defensive dominance at his peak is unmatched, but what matters is team overall level of play (yes, I think Russell was negative offensive player) and Duncan's teams look better here despite playing in tougher league. Of course Tim had great management, but so did Russell as Auerbach was also way ahead of his time in terms of being GM (BTW, Howell is one of the most underrated veteran additions ever).

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