RealGM Top 100 List #9

[trex_8063]

The pace Kobe's teams played at did not prevent Kobe getting the same number of shots per game as Erving, so why would we penalise Erving for possibly playing in games that generally had more shot attempts, since the specific number of shot attempts Erving has was the same as Kobe.

Unbelievable. I don't know how this hasn't been answered more than clearly already (by your own words, as well as some additional supportive explanation from me). That Kobe had nearly the same number of shot attempts despite the slower pace doesn't settle it, because that means he likely would have had even MORE shot attempts if playing at the '76 pace.

And again, I don't know why I even have to labor this point, we have what is essentially THE PROOF in per 100 poss stats:

Whereas their raw averages were 23.1 FGA per game for Erving vs. 22.4 per game for Kobe......
PER 100:
Erving: 24.9
Kobe: 26.9

Clearly the pace wasn't just "possibly" faster in the Erving's playoff (conjecture)...it WAS faster (FACT). And based on the discrepancy between actual FGA per game and FGA per 100 possessions, that did effect the "specific" number of shot attempts taken (FACT).

[trex_8063]

Some of these have been posted in other threads, but for recap.....

The underrated defense:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3H76dsMqo3s[/youtube]

Post-prime Bird in his final season (triple-double with 49 pts):
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=woAK1i-o2wI[/youtube]

Passing:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhnRtgBGMl4[/youtube]

[Narigo]

Larry Bird videos

A video of his post moves

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBnwSeMiVaU[/youtube]

[Baller2014]

Unbelievable. I don't know how this hasn't been answered more than clearly already (by your own words, as well as some additional supportive explanation from me). That Kobe had nearly the same number of shot attempts despite the slower pace doesn't settle it, because that means he likely would have had even MORE shot attempts if playing at the '76 pace.

And again, I don't know why I even have to labor this point, we have what is essentially THE PROOF in per 100 poss stats:

Whereas their raw averages were 23.1 FGA per game for Erving vs. 22.4 per game for Kobe......
PER 100:
Erving: 24.9
Kobe: 26.9

Clearly the pace wasn't just "possibly" faster in the Erving's playoff (conjecture)...it WAS faster (FACT). And based on the discrepancy between actual FGA per game and FGA per 100 possessions, that did effect the "specific" number of shot attempts taken (FACT).

Whether you do or don't get more shots playing at a different pace can depend a lot upon variables; your team's game plan, how they intend to use you, etc. Someone playing at a pace of 90 might be getting given more shots than a guy playing in a 110 pace team. It can also be altered by other variables, for instance if your team has Shaq grabbing all the rebounds (so there might still be less possessions per game, but your team is getting more of them). The whole point of pace adjustment is to equalise the possessions you got, and if this was about compensating for Dr J's rebounding (and if you actually had stats for the pace those playoffs to back it up) then I'd get it. But Kobe and Erving took the same number of shots, so neither was disadvantaged. What we should take from that is "if Kobe and Erving are put in a situation where both get 22 shots a game, Erving will score more on better efficiency". In fact, Kobe's own coach complained Kobe took more shots than he should have, disrupting the flow of the offense (I quoted this extensively in earlier threads about Kobe, and the recent Dr J one), so the fact he was getting more shots at a lower pace isn't necessarily a good thing, and doesn't indicate more value. Assumedly if Dr J was taking less shots, his efficiency would go up (the more shots you take, the more your efficiency tends to go down), so it's not like his stats would even necessarily look worse either.

[ardee]

Unbelievable. I don't know how this hasn't been answered more than clearly already (by your own words, as well as some additional supportive explanation from me). That Kobe had nearly the same number of shot attempts despite the slower pace doesn't settle it, because that means he likely would have had even MORE shot attempts if playing at the '76 pace.

And again, I don't know why I even have to labor this point, we have what is essentially THE PROOF in per 100 poss stats:

Whereas their raw averages were 23.1 FGA per game for Erving vs. 22.4 per game for Kobe......
PER 100:
Erving: 24.9
Kobe: 26.9

Clearly the pace wasn't just "possibly" faster in the Erving's playoff (conjecture)...it WAS faster (FACT). And based on the discrepancy between actual FGA per game and FGA per 100 possessions, that did effect the "specific" number of shot attempts taken (FACT).

Whether you do or don't get more shots playing at a different pace can depend a lot upon variables; your team's game plan, how they intend to use you, etc. Someone playing at a pace of 90 might be getting given more shots than a guy playing in a 110 pace team. It can also be altered by other variables, for instance if your team has Shaq grabbing all the rebounds (so there might still be less possessions per game, but your team is getting more of them). The whole point of pace adjustment is to equalise the possessions you got, and if this was about compensating for Dr J's rebounding (and if you actually had stats for the pace those playoffs to back it up) then I'd get it. But Kobe and Erving took the same number of shots, so neither was disadvantaged. What we should take from that is "if Kobe and Erving are put in a situation where both get 22 shots a game, Erving will score more on better efficiency". In fact, Kobe's own coach complained Kobe took more shots than he should have, disrupting the flow of the offense (I quoted this extensively in earlier threads about Kobe, and the recent Dr J one), so the fact he was getting more shots at a lower pace isn't necessarily a good thing, and doesn't indicate more value. Assumedly if Dr J was taking less shots, his efficiency would go up (the more shots you take, the more your efficiency tends to go down), so it's not like his stats would even necessarily look worse either.

Who cares if Kobe took more shots.

The year he took 27 FGA he led an awful team to the 7th best offense in the entire league. Clearly Kobe shooting that much was working for his team, the more he scored in 2006 the better his team performed. (19-11 in the second half when he was scoring 36 ppg)

Sent from my GT-I9300 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[ThunderDan9]

Some of these have been posted in other threads, but for recap.....

Post-prime Bird in his final season (triple-double with 49 pts):
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=woAK1i-o2wI[/youtube]

Just how tough is that game-saving clutch three-pointer at 6,45? Drexler was all over his crippled body.

Amazing stuff, even of it is only regular season. [On a side note: the vast majority of these Bird videos on youtube are - for obvious reasons - PLAYOFF (!) games, against the best teams like the Lakers, Sixers, Bucks, Hawks, Pistons etc... very rarely against teams like the Bullets or Nets or Kings... so most of the footage shows him dismantling top opponents, in playoff time.]
An old and weary Celtics team against the high-flying powerhouse Blazers. Bird still gets the job done.
I like another vid from his last season... the highlights of his last game at the Boston Garden against the Cavs:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAYS9DYZ15g[/youtube]

So the penultimate game of his career, he hadn't even started for weeks... and he does this? Just a beauty to watch. He destroys the Cavs with his passing. It's like 14 assists?

[colts18]

The funny thing is also that Colts right now is using arguments (that PER graph, your opinions), which show that Hakeem > Shaq. I guess they weren't worth showing, when Shaq was discussed...

Did you even read the graph? The graph shows that Shaq has a higher playoff PER than Hakeem. In your rush to attack me for being a hypocrite, you forgot to carefully look at the graph to see that Shaq was higher in RS and PS PER.

Plus if you read my case for Shaq, a lot of it had to do with him facing the toughest gauntlet of opponent Defenses for a modern star. Something that doesn't show up in PER.

[ElGee]

Summary stats of Robinson or the regression stuff? ...I'm not locking in on a precise value. With/without stats are really noisy and I wouldn't want to rank players using them. It's blunt, but looking at a good chunk of games in separate seasons to get some sense of a trend. I know you've done the same with Kareem's with/without stats

Summary stats. As far as WOWY, I've done the same with almost everyone, results of which I'm now posting here: viewtopic.php?f=344&t=1333570

re "resiliency:" I'm making a conclusion about the Rockets as a team with the offense structured around Hakeem. In the box version of my stat -- Expected Value -- Hakeem's offense from 93-97 is worse in the PS vs. LAL (4g, almost no change against ) NYK (7g), Orlando (4g), Minnesota (3g) and Phoenix (14g), slightly better against Uta (16g) and much better against SAS (6g), Por (4g) and LAC (5g). However, I would not fixate on an individual's offensive box numbers as automatic proxy for the team. Thus, my assertion really has nothing to do with Hakeem being "just better" (or "stepping up") but speaks to the Global outcome of running an offense through him.

[Clyde Frazier]

Vote for #9 - Bird



BIRD CAREER REG SEASON

~24 PPG, 10 RPG, 6 APG, 1.7 SPG, .8 BPG, 3 TOPG
~50% FG, 38% 3PT, 89% FT, 56% TS, 115/101 OFF/DEF RTG, .203 WS/48

HAKEEM CAREER REG SEASON

~22 PPG, 11 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.7 SPG, 3 BPG, 3 TOPG
~51% FG, 71% FT, 55% TS, 108/98 OFF/DEF RTG, .177 WS/48

BIRD CAREER PLAYOFFS (164 GAMES)

~24 PPG, 10 RPG, 6.5 APG, 1.8 SPG, .9 BPG, 3 TOPG
~47% FG, 32% 3PT, 89% FT, 55% TS, 114/104 OFF/DEF RTG, .173 WS/48

HAKEEM CAREER PLAYOFFS (145 GAMES)

~26 PPG, 11 RPG, 3 APG, 1.7 SPG, 3 BPG, 3 TOPG
~53% FG, 72% FT, 57% TS, 112/101 OFF/DEF RTG, .189 WS/48

Career in detail: http://bkref.com/tiny/2UO0Y

Up until last great season: http://bkref.com/tiny/2VlgR

Peak: http://bkref.com/tiny/7c5R9

Hakeem obviously has the longevity over bird, and could have the argument for a better prime, but they're very comparable. I'd also say bird has a slight edge in peak. Bird consistently went further in the playoffs, but had the better team around him for the majority of his career. Both excelled in the finals in their primes.

After seeing everything from the pro hakeem crowd, this is really a toss up for me. I strongly believe both players belong in the top 10.

As I said toward the end of the last thread, I almost think of magic and bird as 1A and 1B. They were both cut from the same cloth: they were players who could do just about anything you asked of them on the court. In a broad sense, they were position-less: they were just basketball players. They saw and approached the game differently.

He's in that elite class of great basketball minds and decision makers. And while hakeem was certainly a versatile and intelligent player, I just don't see him in the same light.

To further my point, i'll reference a recent post by Doctor MJ:

That's not Bird's main thing to me. To me with Bird it's more a guy who seems to accept what's given, see a way to exploit it, and then hustle to make it happen. There are other guys you can talk about doing this to some degree, but typically when we talk about them we're really talking defense as at least half their impact (Walton for example).

Bird has some of that on defense, but obviously it's his offense that's his #1 thing. And when I say "off-ball" that's an oversimplification. If someone called Reggie Miller an off-ball savant I wouldn't say they are wrong, but Bird clearly takes it quite a bit further. It's a distinction along the lines that after everything else, what Reggie's looking to do when he gets the ball is shoot, whereas Bird has a battery of choices at his disposal and the only given seems to be that he already knows what he's going to do before you even know he's going to be there getting the ball.

As talented as hakeem was offensively, you could really just give the ball to bird and get the hell out of the way with the game on the line:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-Hf-3XvAyk&feature=youtu.be&t=39s[/youtube]

Just an elite shot creator who had the court vision in his back pocket if necessary.

2 hypotheticals that i'm just thinking about while doing this comparison: You can never control who you play against on the way to a championship, but I do wonder how hakeem would've fared against jordan's bulls if he never retired. Yes, we have to assume the bulls get back to the finals in 94 and 95, but it's a hypothetical nonetheless.

Also, I think bird might be even scarier than I thought in today's game with the prevalence of the 3PT shot. It was always clear to me that sure, he'd shoot more 3s, but after reading fpliii's excerpt from bird's book about the 3PT line, it was essentially foreign to him. He didn't know what to do with it. For comparison, steph curry shot ~42% from 3 on a shade under 8 attempts per game this past season. I'm not saying bird would WANT to do that, but there's no doubt in my mind that he'd be capable of it. When you combine that with the rest of his game, it's just crazy to think about.

[tsherkin]

I'm gonna be that guy.

While in my heart I believe Hakeem and Bird should go first, I'm dying to see what people have to say and to re-evaluate my own thoughts on Moses Malone.

So he's my vote for #9. I doubt he gains the traction necessary but one of the few to win 3 MVPs, did it with different teams, got to the Finals with different teams, dominated the boards, excellent longevity...

Will post more later. I expect his postseason resume to be his biggest rank killer but I'm hugely curious what people think of him.

[Purch]

I'm gonna be that guy.

While in my heart I believe Hakeem and Bird should go first, I'm dying to see what people have to say and to re-evaluate my own thoughts on Moses Malone.

So he's my vote for #9. I doubt he gains the traction necessary but one of the few to win 3 MVPs, did it with different teams, got to the Finals with different teams, dominated the boards, excellent longevity...

Will post more later. I expect his postseason resume to be his biggest rank killer but I'm hugely curious what people think of him.

Funny, I was just reading an old post about his 1981-82 season on another forum by Shaqattack

I looked into this season a while ago, and have been meaning to make a thread about it, but forgot until the last few days, so now is as good of a time as any.

He didn't win the title this year like he did in '83, but this has a strong case for being his best season. The individual feats are just astonishing.

I'll start with the final 2 games in January. Entering these games, the Rockets were a mediocre 19-22, but they won both games with Moses scoring 33 in the first game and in the second game, he had 32 points, 20 rebounds, 2 assists and 4 blocks on 12/18 from the floor and 7/10 from the line in 41 minutes. This would start an 8 game winning streak, a stretch where Houston went 13-2, a streak of 13 consecutive 30+ point games, a stretch of 30+ in 19 out of 20 games, and lead into a month of February which would make these 2 late January wins look quiet.

Moses opened up the month of February with 53 points(19 in the 4th quarter), 23 rebounds(11 of them were offensive boards), 4 assists and 1 block on 19/30 from the floor and 15/18 from the line.

That was just the first of 3 consecutive 40 point games. He followed it up with 45 points and 20 rebounds and then had 47 points, 14 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 blocks on 18/28 from the floor and 11/15 from the line.

Here's what Del Harris had to say following these 3 games.

"If there's anybody playing any better in the NBA right now ... well, there just isn't," said Houston Coach Del Harris. "And the thing of it is, he's getting his points off the flow. He's getting them within the framework of our offense, plus the fact he's averaging about 10 points a game off his own hard work on the offensive boards."

Then Moses had a nice 33 point game before he continued with the legendary performances. His next game was a 38 point, 32 rebound game vs the Sonics, he broke his own record with 21 offensive rebounds, a record that still stands 30 years later, and this was the last 30/30 game until Kevin Love did it in the 2010-2011 season.

Moses outrebounded the entire Sonics team by himself, and Lenny Wilkens had this to say.

"Moses was really controlling the boards," said Seattle Coach Lenny Wilkens. "Bob Pettit and Bill Russell were two of the best (rebounders) that I ever saw. Moses compares very favorably."

Moses finally offered his 2 cents as well.

Originally Posted by Moses Malone
"I had stretches like this in high school, but never in pro ball," Malone said, "My body feels so good right now. I stay in shape. I'm losing pounds. The main thing is I'm getting rest."

After a few more 30+ games, one of them in Houston's first loss in more than 3 weeks, Moses had 44 points and 16 rebounds vs the Cavs. Followed by a few more "ordinary" 30+ games, Moses had 34/21 vs Dallas, then he was finally held under 30 with 23 points and 9 rebounds on 8/17 shooting show that he was normal, but the Rockets still beat Denver ever.

However, he'd end February with 43 points and 23 rebounds, and 44 points. Unfortunately, this game didn't end so well as Moses was held to just 2 points in the 4th, missed the potential game-winner in regulation and was held to just 2 points in overtime.

He'd add another 40+ game with 43 points on his first game in March, 14 of his points in the 4th quarter, although Houston would lose this game too.

Overall, Moses averaged 38.1 ppg and 17.3 rpg in the month of February. he had at least 30 points in 13 of the 14 games, scored 40+ 6 times that month and had at least 20 rebounds 6 times that month. He led Houston to an 11-3 record and to nobody's surprise was voted player of the month for February.

But this was not the end of Malone's dominance. After starting off March with the aforementioned 43 point game for a second streak of 3 40+ games in a row in about a month, he continued dropping 30+ including 38/12 with 3 blocks on 16/26 from the floor and 6/6 from the line while playing all 48 minutes, he then came through in the clutch the next game. He had 39 points and 18 rebounds including the offensive rebound and game-winner with 4 seconds remaining to beat the Suns by 2.

He was then held under 30 for just the second time in 21 games with 28 and he shot just 10/28, and followed it up with a 26 point game, which may have made people think he was cooling off. Not the case. He responded with 49 points and 12 rebounds while scoring 22 in the 4th quarter to beat the Blazers, then he was relatively quiet with games of 24 and 19 points, respectively, but responded with 39 points and 17 rebounds vs Kareem's Lakers, though Kareem sat out the second half with a sprained ankle.



Moses transitioned into his next outstanding performance with 31 points in between. He duplicated his outstanding performance from about a week and a half earlier vs Portland when he had 41 points and 18 rebounds as well as a 12 point 4th quarter to beat Portland again. He followed this up with 46 points vs the Sonics to continue his dominance of both these Northwest teams. he had a 38/20 game vs the Mavs sandwiched between 29/17 and 35/15 games vs the Warriors, the latter being on April 1st. He had a relatively quiet 21/15 game in a win vs the Spurs to lead into another monster game vs Kareem and the Lakers. Moses had 37 points and 21 rebounds, although Kareem did get the last laugh with 12 of his 20 points in the 4th quarter to pull out the win.

This was really when Malone's historical dominance, which last over 2 months, finally came to an end, as he scored 30+ in just 1 of his last 6 games to end the regular season.

But comparable stretches to Malone's 2 months in April have been few and far between.

Moses finished the season with a career-high 31.1 ppg which was 2nd in the league and a league-leading 14.7 rpg as he was voted MVP.

[/quote]



I haven't really been that suprised that his name hasn't come up yet, but I am confused as to why people seem to consider Robinson the #1 center after Hakeem and not Moses. I've generally consider Moses the better of the 2

[acrossthecourt]

Summary stats of Robinson or the regression stuff? ...I'm not locking in on a precise value. With/without stats are really noisy and I wouldn't want to rank players using them. It's blunt, but looking at a good chunk of games in separate seasons to get some sense of a trend. I know you've done the same with Kareem's with/without stats

Summary stats. As far as WOWY, I've done the same with almost everyone, results of which I'm now posting here: viewtopic.php?f=344&t=1333570

re "resiliency:" I'm making a conclusion about the Rockets as a team with the offense structured around Hakeem. In the box version of my stat -- Expected Value -- Hakeem's offense from 93-97 is worse in the PS vs. LAL (4g, almost no change against ) NYK (7g), Orlando (4g), Minnesota (3g) and Phoenix (14g), slightly better against Uta (16g) and much better against SAS (6g), Por (4g) and LAC (5g). However, I would not fixate on an individual's offensive box numbers as automatic proxy for the team. Thus, my assertion really has nothing to do with Hakeem being "just better" (or "stepping up") but speaks to the Global outcome of running an offense through him.

Those summary stats are for WOWY. Where are they for Robinson's stats versus good defenses?

Resiliency makes it sound like he's better than expected against great teams, but that's not true in the regular season. It's just the playoffs.

There are too many questions to ask, so I'm going to limit it to one per statement:

Postseason only Prime Kobe (06-10)VS Prime Bird (84-88)

Kobe:30/5/5 57%TS
Bird: 26/9/6 56%TS

Cool. My question is, do you have Dr J or Hakeem ahead of Kobe because their stats were better during their peak runs?

Finals W/L
Bird: 2-2(50%)
Kobe: 2-1(67%)

Yeh, but Bird was losing in the finals to Magic Johnson and the Showtime Lakers, not the KG Celtics. The teams he was beating sure weren't the Dwight Howard Magic either. If record in the finals is so important, do you have Hakeem ahead of Kobe for his 2-0 finals record?

Series W/L
Bird 16-3(84%)
Kobe 11-3(78%)

Again, context is important. The teams Bird was beating were much, much, much better than the ones Kobe took down. Some of those Bucks teams would have handily beaten any of Kobe's teams during that stretch.

Record With HCA
Kobe 11-0(100%)
Bird: 16-2(88%)

This means something why? Assumedly HCA matters because it suggests you lost to an inferior team, but can you really be said to have lost to a worse team when the showtime Lakers won only one game less in the regular season, and had slightly more injuries than you did? Surely that suggests that if both teams were equally healthy the Lakers would have amassed the better regular season record.

Record Against 50+ Win Teams
Bird:11-3(78%)
Kobe:10-3(76%)

Again, not all 50 win teams are created equal. For instance, the 1987 Bucks only won 50 wins (technically), but they'd have easily beaten the Lakers from 08-10.

This is also the first time I'm hearing Bird's prime was only from 84-88. Why are we looking at just that stretch? Ditto Kobe from 06-10. When did this become Kobe's prime?

Hakeem's 2-1, not undefeated.

re: Moses. People don't like his defense and feel that he stat-padded, especially on the boards. He won his MVPs during a weird transition era for the league when drug problems were rampant. He joined a 58 win 76ers team and won a title with them. He went to the finals with Houston, but it was helped by a stupid three game format and after the Lakers, they faced a team with a losing record and the +2 Spurs. Houston itself had a losing record. In the finals they were outscored ten points a game.

Moses was good at physically beating up guys inside and destroying them on the glass, but as I've said with low-post centers before ... your value is reduced if you can't pass. And he's probably the worst passer out of all the MVP centers. People call him one of the greatest rebounders ever, but it's entirely on the offensive end: his defensive rebounding is nothing special for a center and he's eclipsed or matched even by guys like Ewing and Olajuwon who weren't known for rebounding.

It's not like he's the last MVP left. Robinson won an MVP and had to compete during the Jordan/Olajuwon/early Shaq era. McAdoo was a scoring center and won an MVP too. Garnett won an MVP and had to compete with Duncan and others with a weak team in his prime (team success is a big determinant of MVP.) Mikan and Pettit dominated their eras.

By the way, Bird nearly matched Moses in rebounds in that '81 series.
That's an accomplishment that should be listed more often.

[trex_8063]

The whole point of pace adjustment is to equalise the possessions you got, and if this was about compensating for Dr J's rebounding (and if?? you actually had stats for the pace those playoffs to back it up) then I'd get it.

Per 100 is a Pace-adjusted stat, and the significant discrepancy between it and the raw shows the pace was faster for '76 Erving's playoffs. But if you need to see an actual specifc pace number for each playoff before you'll stop using words like "possibly", fine, let's get that. We have sufficient data to figure a reasonably accurate pace estimate for ourselves......

Kobe averaged 22.375 FGA per game in the playoffs while playing 43.375 mpg. There was one OT game, making the total minutes played by the team average out to 48.3125 mpg in that playoffs. He's on clip to take 24.922 FGA per full playoff game.
His per 100 poss. avg was 26.9 FGA. 26.9/100 = 24.922/x x=92.65

Erving averaged 23.077 FGA per game while playing 42.385 mpg. There were no OT games, so it avg was 48 mpg. He was on clip to take 26.134 FGA per full playoff game.
His per 100 poss avg was 24.9 FGA. 24.9/100 = 26.134/x x=104.96

You can do the math for any one of their respective teammates, and you'll get the same results. So the pace was faster in Erving's playoffs. Not "possibly", it "ACTUALLY" WAS faster, by rate of 105 vs. 92.7.

Whether you do or don't get more shots playing at a different pace can depend a lot upon variables; your team's game plan, how they intend to use you, etc. Someone playing at a pace of 90 might be getting given more shots than a guy playing in a 110 pace team. It can also be altered by other variables, for instance if your team has Shaq grabbing all the rebounds (so there might still be less possessions per game, but your team is getting more of them). But Kobe and Erving took the same number of shots, so neither was disadvantaged. What we should take from that is "if Kobe and Erving are put in a situation where both get 22 shots a game, Erving will score more on better efficiency". In fact, Kobe's own coach complained Kobe took more shots than he should have, disrupting the flow of the offense (I quoted this extensively in earlier threads about Kobe, and the recent Dr J one), so the fact he was getting more shots at a lower pace isn't necessarily a good thing, and doesn't indicate more value. Assumedly if Dr J was taking less shots, his efficiency would go up (the more shots you take, the more your efficiency tends to go down), so it's not like his stats would even necessarily look worse either.

This entirely conjecture. Several counter-points:

1) Of course it's possible for someone playing at 90 pace to take more shots per game or per minute than someone playing 110 pace. I'm fairly certain, for example, that Kobe (or Erving) playing at 90 pace would average more shots than Ben Wallace in a 110 pace setting. What's the point? This has zero bearing on the question at hand, which is: would Kobe average more shots if playing at a significantly higher pace? (or alternately: would Erving average fewer shots if playing a significantly SLOWER pace?).

2) You're right that there is not a perfectly linear relationship between pace and raw numbers. However, vaguely stating that there are "other variables" at play---with no specific correlation or context to either Kobe or Erving---and then implying that these vague "other variables" are sufficient reason to believe that Kobe would not average more shots at a higher pace (or that Erving would not average fewer shots if playing at a slower pace)-----and that IS what you're doing; you're using this notion of "other variables" as justification for declaring that the big difference in pace has no relevant effect----is WILDLY selective conjecture (and very likely wrong).

3) The bolded/underlined statement is making a broad generalization without offering much specific context. Dr. J was a pretty good isolation scorer, but that's not exactly his forte, or what his great reputation primarily stems from. Most people would probably concede that Kobe is at least the better half-court scorer/offensive player (if not the overall best offense player). Transition scoring, otoh, is something Erving is renowned for as possibly the greatest ever. So suppose we make the context that they're both going to get 22 FGA per game, but his team doesn't run (no transition), so everything comes in the half-court setting. i.e. we're taking away all of Erving's high% transition hoops, forcing him to score ONLY in a fashion where he's somewhat less adept (and less efficient), perhaps having to force some low% shots to reach the 22 FGA mark. In that circumstance, your assertion may well be untrue.

4) While generally speaking I would agree that shooting efficiency often tends to go down as shot attempts go up, some context specific to their respective styles of play would be in order. As I just got thru saying, Erving is a well-renowned transition scorer.....but a far LESS renowned half-court scorer. Playing in a slower pace setting, he is likely to get fewer transition scoring opportunities if for no other reason than because fewer possessions===>fewer shot attempts===>fewer blocks or defensive rebounds leading to fast-breaks. So it could not be said to a certainty that Erving's shooting efficiency would RISE in a slower pace. In fact, due to the nature of player that he was, the opposite might even happen.

Anyway, I'm done hijacking the thread with this discussion. It's distraction and besides, I don't know how it could become more proved at this point that 1) there was FOR CERTAIN a significant pace difference, and that 2) pace differences matter.

[Purch]

I'm gonna be that guy.

While in my heart I believe Hakeem and Bird should go first, I'm dying to see what people have to say and to re-evaluate my own thoughts on Moses Malone.

So he's my vote for #9. I doubt he gains the traction necessary but one of the few to win 3 MVPs, did it with different teams, got to the Finals with different teams, dominated the boards, excellent longevity...

Will post more later. I expect his postseason resume to be his biggest rank killer but I'm hugely curious what people think of him.

Also, another post on that season

[QUOTE=dankok8]I always knew it was a great season but upon further analysis I think it's on a very short list of the greatest ever. Only Wilt and Kareem in their peak years ever dominated throughout the regular season so thoroughly. Funny thing is Moses started the year a bit slow but the second half of the season he was as dominant as any player ever. He just steamrolled the best centers in the league. For the entire season he averaged 31.1 ppg and 14.7 rpg on 51.9% shooting. He was second in the league in scoring and led in rebounding, PER, and Win Shares.

Month-by-Month:

October (2 games): 39.0 ppg, 10.5 rpg

November (15 games): 25.3 ppg, 13.7 rpg

December (12 games): 28.5 ppg, 15.4 rpg

January (13 games): 28.7 ppg, 13.8 rpg

February (14 games): 38.1 ppg, 17.3 rpg on 55% shooting

March (16 games): 35.0 ppg, 14.1 rpg

April (9 games): 28.1 ppg, 15.6 rpg



During the all-star game on January 31st, Moses had 12 points and 11 rebounds in just 20 minutes played but West coach Pat Riley decided to bench Moses in the 4th quarter in favor of Kareem. The West lost the game and Moses was pissed and this event is rumored to have motivated his tear on the league. For 33 straight games from February 2nd to April 6th, Moses averaged 36.0 ppg and 15.8 rpg.

His game against Sikma and the Supersonics on February 11th is one of the all-time legendary performances. Moses outrebounded the entire Seattle team 32-21, grabbed an NBA record 21 offensive rebounds, and outrebounded center Jack Sikma by a 32-3 margin (and also outscored him 38-16). Sikma was in his prime that season averaging 19.6/12.7 and one of the best defenders and rebounders in the league.


Here are his performances against the best centers in the league.


vs. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (5 games)

Moses: 34.8 ppg, 15.8 rpg

Kareem: 21.8 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 3.2 apg on 51.8% shooting

Kareem left one game in the 1st half with an ankle injury but Moses still killed an aging Kareem. Moses had games of 36/10, 37/22, 23/9, 39/17, and 37/21 against the Lakers.

81-82 Season

10/30/1981

Kareem: 33/10/2 (11/25, 11/16)
Moses: 36/10 (18/?, 0/2)

Rockets win 113-112 in double OT. Moses scores a game-winning lay-up with one second remaining.

11/11/1981

Kareem: 21/9/3 (9/21, 3/3)
Moses: 37/22 (15/?, 7/9)

Lakers win 95-93. Kareem had 4 points in the last minute to fuel the Lakers comeback.

11/29/1981

Kareem: 23/3/4 (10/14, 3/5)
Moses: 23/9 (9/?, 5/6)

Lakers win 122-104. Magic had 12/11/11 for LA and Hayes had a 30/12 game for Houston.

3/21/1982

Kareem: 12/6/4 (6/9, 0/1)
Moses: 39/17 (12/?, 15/18)

Lakers win 107-102. Kareem left the first half with an ankle injury and did not return. Moses had 25 points in that half and just 14 in the second. Magic took over late.

4/6/1982

Kareem: 20/3/3 (7/14, 6/8)
Moses: 37/21 (9/?, 19/21)

Lakers win 108-97.

Cumulative Stats

Kareem: 21.8 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 3.2 apg on 51.8 %FG/69.7 %FT/55.9 %TS
Moses: 34.4 ppg, 15.8 rpg on 82.1 %FT

Moses just dominated Kareem this year in 3 out of the 5 games. He’s the clear winner here.

vs. Robert Parish (2 games)

Moses: 37.5 ppg, 11.5 rpg

Parish: 11.0 ppg

Moses had games of 37/11 and 38/12 against the Celtics.


vs. Jack Sikma (5 games)

Moses: 31.4 ppg, 16.0 rpg

Sikma: 17.8 rpg

Moses had games of 21/11, 28/15, 24/9, 38/32, and 46/13 against the Sonics.


vs. Mychal Thompson (5 games)

Moses: 36.2 ppg, 13.6 rpg, 1.4 apg on 60.8% shooting

Thompson: 21.4 ppg, 12.4 rpg, 3.4 apg on 59.3% shooting

Moses had games of 28/10, 34/8, 29/20, 49/12, and 41/18 against the Blazers.


vs. Artis Gilmore (2 games)

Moses: 29.0 ppg, 16.0 rpg

Gilmore: 21.5 ppg

Moses had games of 31/16 and 27/? against the Bulls.



Overall in 19 games against the five best centers in the league above, Moses averaged a monstrous 33.8 ppg and 14.8 rpg. He went 17-1-1 in scoring and we don't have rebounds for all games but of course he dominated them pretty badly on the glass.

[/quote]

[ronnymac2]

Vote: Hakeem Olajuwon

As I said, I honestly didn't know what to do with Dream's With/Without numbers in 1991. Fatal's post quelled my uncertainty and contextualized the numbers to indicate there wasn't a bigger problem with Olajuwon's play on the court. As I said, how each of his teammates do when he's out (or in!) is a credit to them.

I'm voting for Olajuwon because he gives me the best chance to win the most titles of anybody else left. His career value is higher. This dude led very good defensive teams throughout his prime. I've talked a lot about his years in the 1980s because I feel that's what most weren't so sure of, but at his peak in 1994, he led a dominant —4.9 defensive team, second only to the legendary (GOAT-level in the A.B.E — After Bill Era) New York Knick defense that he incidentally torched in the finals to the tune of 27 points on 50 percent shooting.

[acrossthecourt]

Vote: Hakeem Olajuwon

As I said, I honestly didn't know what to do with Dream's With/Without numbers in 1991. Fatal's post quelled my uncertainty and contextualized the numbers to indicate there wasn't a bigger problem with Olajuwon's play on the court. As I said, how each of his teammates do when he's out (or in!) is a credit to them.

I'm voting for Olajuwon because he gives me the best chance to win the most titles of anybody else left. His career value is higher. This dude led very good defensive teams throughout his prime. I've talked a lot about his years in the 1980s because I feel that's what most weren't so sure of, but at his peak in 1994, he led a dominant —4.9 defensive team, second only to the legendary (GOAT-level in the A.B.E — After Bill Era) New York Knick defense that he incidentally torched in the finals to the tune of 27 points on 50 percent shooting.

I think the larger problem is that he was replaced in the starting lineup by someone who was roughly the equivalent of Perkins and they didn't get worse.

When people talk about the problems of with/without stats, the backups are largely the problem. Maybe your backup is Dennis Rodman ready for a breakthrough. Not true in this case....

Olajuwon's problems playing *with* his teammates can't just be hand-waved by bad coaching/strategy. We're not going to assume an alternate world where Olajuwon was always playing well with them. We still have to consider what was actually happening.

[E-Balla]

I'm voting Hakeem. The with/without says a lot about Hakeem (a lot of bad) but there's enough examples of the team missing him sorely (92 - 40-30 with, 2-10 without. 95 - 44-28 with, 3-7 without. 96 - 47-25 with, 1-9 without. 86 - 44-24 with, 7-7 without) to ignore the one time they didn't (91 - 36-20 with, 16-10 without). People are doubting his offensive impact but I find it hard to believe a guy that gets buckets like him doesn't make offenses better. In the postseason Hakeem is in Jordan/Shaq/Magic/Duncan territory as one of the top 5 performers of the modern era. Who cares if in the regular season he had an efficiency decrease that was expected if in the playoffs he blew that out the water.

And to people doubting his ability to play next to other greats like Chuck remember that 97 team was injured a ton (w/ Chuck they were 41-12, w/Clyde they were 46-16, and their injuries overlapped a bit). The team outside of Clyde, Chuck, Hakeem was Elie, Maloney (who could shoot and not do much else), and Willis. They still won 57 games and made it to the WCF against a team many think is the greatest to never win (Hakeem was getting monster numbers too and he was on his last legs).

[Owly]

Though open to persuasion, my vote at this time goes to Oscar Robertson

I'll start with my case earlier, though now, this isn't so much for him to be in the argument as it is, "he's my choice right now".

Just because he hasn't got any traction so far, some of the arguments for Oscar Robertson.

With without in ’68 (chosen because it’s his largest absence, I haven’t done this with other years) is pretty huge. Obviously preface this with:
(a) With without is noisy, it is measuring things that aren’t what you’re trying to measure (quality of backup, coaching adjustments, schedule etc).
(b) It’s a small sample
Over the year Cincinnati were -69 (82 games), with Robertson they were +118 (65 games, +1.815385 per game). That means without him they were -187 without him (17 games, -11 per game). That suggests a value of roughly 13 points (in that particular context, with all the caveats above) over his reserve (Guy Rodgers).

And with regard to the numbers it’s not the triple double average across his first six years. And obviously his rebounding prowess is overstated by pace, more misses back then and high minutes. But you can go too far denigrating his rebounding, I’ve seen it noted that he was 7th on his team in rebounding percentage in his largest boxscore rebounding year (’62 12.5 rpg), but that needs placing in context, firstly they rebounded by committee and there are a bunch of players grouped together, and then amongst actual rotation players Robertson is 4th behind the center, backup center and power forward. And it wasn’t like this was a team on which it was easy to grab rebounds, Wayne Embry who on a weaker team had competed with Chamberlain and Russell in rebound rate. The Royals rebound total is slightly below the average but this is misleading because they took less than the average amount of fgas, made the highest percentage of them and given opponents ppg presumably allowed a high fg% so I don’t think there were a lot easy rebounds available. Then too consider his burden amongst guys with a playmaking responsibility, you have Wilt as a better rebounder in that era, and one year of Gola (a role player) then it’s Robertson for the first half of the http://bkref.com/tiny/kVq7w and that’s per minute.

His assist numbers aren’t inflated given the slightly lower fg% and in particular the much tighter/meaner scorekeeping on assists which pretty much counteracts the increased pace. And because composite boxscore metrics are based on the modern era assumptions/estimations of the value of an assist Robertson is somewhat cheated here. And here too note the margin of superiority over the next best guard. Guy Rodgers had a couple of seasons where he snatched the assists crown, and another year with 10.7, but then the rest of his career he couldn’t get over 9 a game. From 60-61 to 68-69 Robertson averaged 10.5 per game, Rodgers is closest over that span (and it nicely matches his career) with 8.3 (now Rodgers does have a per minute edge, but played on some very fast and some gimmicky teams, and the reason he wasn’t on court as much as Robertson is he was so far off at everything else, plus Robertson had to call his own number more often) http://bkref.com/tiny/WLTix . It’s notable how far Robertson and Rodgers are ahead of the rest of the pack in assist% (for the years we have it, the later half of the 60s, and Robertson racked up more of his assists in the first half of the decade, whilst Rodgers did better in the latter half than he had earlier).

He was also the eras most efficient scorer ( cf: http://bkref.com/tiny/5loDk http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... op_10.html ) and iirc consistently led his teams to the best offensive ratings.

Put off by the lack of team success? Look at what the management did with talent around him.
Jerry Lucas and Larry Siegfried lost to ABL, with Siegfried somehow lost to Boston when the ABL folded; Mel Daniels to ABA; Bob Boozer traded for nothing of value; Bob Love exposed to expansion; Freddie Lewis exposed to expansion; Louie Dampier went to ABA; draft picks either wasted or never given minutes, not developed and/or given away for nothing or simply traded for less than equal value (for those who weren’t worthless Flynn Robinson, Wayne Embry, Happy Hairston and Jim Fox).
Cincinnati were cheap and poorly managed. Of course the ABA guys wouldn’t have been in the 60s NBA as they were in the 60s ABA. But they could play, and be assets.

The icing on the cake would be the accolades and critics rankings (First Team All-NBA, called the best player by Koppett, consistently top 10 in all published rankings including two first place rankings, plus being voted player of the century by the NABC). Actually one ranking had him outside the top 10. Keith Thompson’s Heroes of the Hardcourt. It had him 19th. Behind Heinsohn. So all published, non-insane rankings.

I understand if this is too much advocacy for some peoples taste and welcome reactions against Robertson being in the discussion at this point. Just that for me he's at least worthy of being in the discussion here, so I pulled together the main cases for him.

My reasons for him over Bird. Longevity - prime wise: (higher mpg; better in terms of boxscore off the bat, though team level impact would seem to favour Bird; but particularly because he didn't suffer a major injury so early), and then in his post prime, Oscar found a very nice niche and helped a team be incredible, whilst Bird struggled somewhat, both in terms of clear boxscore diminuation, but also in finding a role, plus his D after the injury, from what I've heard, kept getting worse (iirc McHale and an annoymous teammate, supposedly Jim Paxson, felt or said at times Bird was taking too many shots).

My reasons for him over Olajuwon. Well it's doubts about Olajuwon's O. Others have noted some problems with his With/Without numbers in that area, and his his TS% was closer to average than great, despite his fabled post moves. Plus whilst he could make a lightning quick move upon recieving the ball, I get the sense that he held on to the ball a little too much (may be too influenced by Simmons saying he did so).

Iirc someone said something about not being convinced about him being better than West, but I can't find the quote so won't address it fully unless it comes up again here. But I think his D might be underrated and his combination of offensive efficiency at individual and team level whilst carry many large burdens (shot creation, playmaking-passing, very large rebounding responsibility for a guard) really resonates with me (also West got injured a lot). I'm not fully convinced Magic (generally, and here, considered his superior) was better tbh.

I also like how Oscar did in all-star games back when the games were competitive both in terms of accolades and team record (including victories over teams with Chamberlain and Russell, 3x MVP, plus once perhaps assisting in Adrian Smith winning it, cf Tall Tales p199). It suggests to me, albeit on very limited evidence that he could perhaps have had even more impact with good teammates (and at least reassures me this wasn't just numbers on a bad team, though tbh once efficiency is factored in, there's limits to how much being on a bad team helps your stat line).

Admittedly I'm not super systematic with this and the "reasons" (for Robertson over players x and y) are more rationalizations (I don't get my order by explicitly comparing each candidate at each spot (the sheer number of comparisons would be daunting, I just do my ad hoc "who's better" calculations. Not entirely happy with by process and internal consistency but would have to dedicate more time than I have- and even then not all source material is available the same for all eras. Anway I put the "reasons"/reasoning in as I think Elgee kinda wanted some, probably rightly so).

Edit: Edited to complete an incomplete thought/sentence.

[90sAllDecade]

Impact Data for Hakeem, from Dipper 13:

58 Games Total

http://i.imgur.com/VjNycWs.png

1992-93: 10 games
1993-94: 26 games
1994-95: 22 games




Shot Chart

Spoiler:

At Rim: 251/334 FG (75.1%)
In Paint (Overall): 401/647 FG (62.0%)
Midrange: 297/674 FG (44.1%)
3 Point: 5/10 FG (50.0%)

Synergy Offense

Spoiler:

PPP stands for Points Per Play.



Overall Chart

http://i.imgur.com/mI9vr92.png


Isolation Plays Only

http://i.imgur.com/aqBJT35.png



Shot Attempts Blocked (Offense): 46

*This means 3.5% of his shots (1331 FGA) were blocked in this footage

Team Performance

Spoiler:

Plus/Minus

Plus/Minus Total: +380

Plus/Minus Per 100: +8.4



On/Off

On Court ORtg: 111.3

Off Court ORtg: 108.1

Net ORtg: +3.2



On Court DRtg: 103.0

Off Court DRtg: 134.5

Net DRtg: -31.5



On/Off Net Rating: +34.7

Man Defense

Spoiler:

Man Defense records all plays that involve the offensive man in isolations, post ups (including stolen entry passes), & offensive rebound putbacks.

Forced TOV's consist of all plays where the offensive player was forced into traveling violations, stepping out of bounds, or offensive fouls.


Below we can see the overall statistics as well as certain individual matchups.

Total Statistics

http://i.imgur.com/XaZWGRZ.png


Ewing '94 Finals

http://i.imgur.com/F5FCtkC.png


Robinson '95 WCF

http://i.imgur.com/IhMcAg3.png


Shaq '95 Finals

http://i.imgur.com/aVybOhH.png

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1330591

[DHodgkins]

My vote is for Larry Bird

- Career averages of 24/10/6 (Only person ever with these numbers)
- One of the best shooters ever (Career: 50/38/89)
- One of the best passing forwards ever (Only forward to average 6 career assists)
- One of the best rebounding forwards ever (6 seasons in double figures)

Three Title Runs:
1981: 22 ppg ... 14 rpg ... 6 apg ... 2.3 spg ... 1.0 bpg
1984: 27.5 ppg ... 11 rpg ... 6 apg ... 2.3 spg ... 1.3 bpg
1986: 26 ppg ... 9.3 rpg ... 8.2 apg ... 2.1 spg ... .6 bpg

Top 3 intangibles/leadership/clutch player ever.

From 84-86:
- 2 Titles
- 2 Finals MVPs
- 3 Reg Season MVPs
- 3x All NBA 1st Team
- 1x All NBA Defensive 2nd Team
- 2x PER Leader
- 2x Win Shares Leader