Andrew Wiggins ceiling

[Colbinii]

He is an incredibly talented scorer but he needs to prove that he can at be at least decent-good at other aspects of the game. Cause right now he isn't at all. Not a good passer, rebounder, putrid defender. He is still young so I hope he improves on those aspects but until then his ceiling is mid level All star at best maybe an all nba 3rd team caliber player.

That's his CEILING? I think you mean floor.

It can't be his floor because he isn't that good yet. There is a very real possibility that Wiggins peaks as a 3rd team all-nba player. I mean, he has a long ways to go to reach peak Melo, and he only finished on the 2nd all-nba team twice.

[HeartBreakKid]

All NBA is Wiggins floor? And people wonder why Wiggins gets critics.

[ahunter12]

What else can wiggins do other then score? He will probably be another Jason Richardson/Corey Maggette.

[Woodsanity]

Yep until he proves that he can do more than score that is his ceiling. A great scorer who can't pass, defend or rebound at even an average level isn't a great overall player..

[Johnny Firpo]

All NBA is Wiggins floor? And people wonder why Wiggins gets critics.

It's not that crazy if you are thinking 3rd team All-NBA.

[MiltownHawkeye]

Not that PER tells the whole story or even a huge chunk of it, but it's curious that his PER is pretty underwhelming (20.9) for a player scoring 26.6 per 36 at a 57.7 TS%. Has there ever been such a potent scorer that was this one-dimensional in terms of defense and counting stats outside of points? T-Mac gets brought up a lot, but T-Mac was a very good playmaker and defender in his prime.

[drza]

Here's some of my thoughts about Wiggins as a prospect, what he was through his first two seasons, and where he is currently:

http://hoopslab.rotowire.com/post/153204423176/what-do-we-have-in-andrew-wiggins

Cliff Notes: Physically he has some once-a-generation tools (6-9 and long for a wing, 44" vertical, fast straight-line speed) and some weaknesses (e.g. thin-ness, lack of strength, not over-the-top quickness). Some of those weaknesses, especially the lack of physical strength, could potentially get better with time.

Game-wise, he's too one dimensional. Right now, he's essentially ONLY a scorer. Through 10 games he seems to have made real progress as a scorer, in part due (I'm sure) to maturation, in part for the work that he's done with ball-handling, and in part because of the extra work he's done shooting 3-pointers over the summer. But as someone just pointed out, some of his shooting is unsustainable (he's like 54% from three right now) so we'll have to see where it levels off.

But in addition, he HAS to get better at other aspects of the game. Defense and rebounding seem like two realistic areas where he can improve. He was drafted as a potential Pippen-level defender, but then he was made the offensive centerpiece on a struggling team and seems to have put his energy into offense. If he can learn to correctly utilize his length and leaping ability, he should be able to at MINIMUM become a plus defender and adequate rebounder. At best he could develop into an All Defense team defender, which would change his entire outlook.

His offensive impact will always be limited as long as he is unable to be a hub for the entire offense. But if he can top out as an elite scorer, an elite wing defender, a solid rebounder and at the least a capable passer that could translate into an upside in the Kawhi Leonard range (if stylistically different). That caliber of player is an MVP candidate. But there are a lot of "ifs" before Wiggins approaches anything like that.

[GSP]

Hes looking more and more like Rudy Gay 2.0 (as in better version) tho im not saying thats his ceiling but seems the path hes going so far. Alot of ppl projected Rudy to be a top perimeter defender with his physical attributes/athleticism and certain performances on that end as well but as we know it never happened.

[vagelis]

Mapple Jordan is here and he matures with long Wiggins strides.
You said that he cannot shoot and now he is first in 3pts percentange.
You said that he has not good handles and now he plays as pg and surpasses defenders at will.
Open your eyes and enjoy the rise of the next nba superstar.
26.6 ppg are only the beginning( he just scratches the surface as his coach said).

Watch on YouTube

[Zeitgeister]

Not that PER tells the whole story or even a huge chunk of it, but it's curious that his PER is pretty underwhelming (20.9) for a player scoring 26.6 per 36 at a 57.7 TS%. Has there ever been such a potent scorer that was this one-dimensional in terms of defense and counting stats outside of points? T-Mac gets brought up a lot, but T-Mac was a very good playmaker and defender in his prime.

Kevin Martin is about the only guy I can think of.

[MiltownHawkeye]

But in addition, he HAS to get better at other aspects of the game. Defense and rebounding seem like two realistic areas where he can improve. He was drafted as a potential Pippen-level defender, but then he was made the offensive centerpiece on a struggling team and seems to have put his energy into offense. If he can learn to correctly utilize his length and leaping ability, he should be able to at MINIMUM become a plus defender and adequate rebounder. At best he could develop into an All Defense team defender, which would change his entire outlook.

Is there a precedent for a player going from this type of defensive reputation (i.e. as a flatout bad defender, with no counting stats in blocks/steals to boot) to eventually making an all-defensive team? I know LeBron didn't defend much early in his career but I don't know if his defensive rep was as bad, and he still averaged 1.8 steals per game.

[AussieBuck]

Not that PER tells the whole story or even a huge chunk of it, but it's curious that his PER is pretty underwhelming (20.9) for a player scoring 26.6 per 36 at a 57.7 TS%. Has there ever been such a potent scorer that was this one-dimensional in terms of defense and counting stats outside of points? T-Mac gets brought up a lot, but T-Mac was a very good playmaker and defender in his prime.

Forgotten about Michael Redd?

[packforfreedom]

Is there a precedent for a player going from this type of defensive reputation (i.e. as a flatout bad defender, with no counting stats in blocks/steals to boot) to eventually making an all-defensive team? I know LeBron didn't defend much early in his career but I don't know if his defensive rep was as bad, and he still averaged 1.8 steals per game.

2011-2012 Kobe?

[QRich3]

I don't get why everyone is so stubborn in their opinions about young prospects, apparently a lot of people jumped early on the opinion that he's just a scorer that can't do anything else, and even when the guy is clearly improving several of the skills he was projected to, guys refuse to acknowledge it.

He's running pick'n'rolls now, which is something few people thought he could do this early, and they're running the crunch time offense directly through him. He still has tunnel vision, but his ball handling has improved a lot and he can score at will in those situations, and it's not hard to project his playmaking coming around in a year or two. Even if his shooting doesn't sustain this level, I don't see shooting ever being a weakness of him, and I'm convinced his defense will also come around after a couple of years under Thibodeau. He's gonna be really good.

[Zeitgeister]

I don't get why everyone is so stubborn in their opinions about young prospects, apparently a lot of people jumped early on the opinion that he's just a scorer that can't do anything else, and even when the guy is clearly improving several of the skills he was projected to, guys refuse to acknowledge it.

He's running pick'n'rolls now, which is something few people thought he could do this early, and they're running the crunch time offense directly through him. He still has tunnel vision, but his ball handling has improved a lot and he can score at will in those situations, and it's not hard to project his playmaking coming around in a year or two. Even if his shooting doesn't sustain this level, I don't see shooting ever being a weakness of him, and I'm convinced his defense will also come around after a couple of years under Thibodeau. He's gonna be really good.

Yeah, I'm most hopeful that his playmaking comes around. I don't have much hope that the rebounds, blocks, steals come around because there is no reason he wouldn't be doing those things right now. I think the passing could potentially come around as a result of learning to maximize his talents within Thibs' system and just by continuing to improve his handle and taking advantage of the extra defensive attention that his scoring will generate.

[Hornet Mania]

He's 21, I don't see any reason to think he's a finished product.

He's a volume scorer with decent (assuming he comes down to earth a bit) efficiency and an elite ability to draw FTs and contributes nothing else, but that's just today. There are plenty of examples of guys who have improved themselves dramatically (or at least up to respectability) after age 21 in areas of their game that were clear weaknesses.

I'm not sure how much he will improve, but assuming he gives a damn (and it appears that he does) some sort of improvement will happen in those areas. He absolutely has the tools, so unless he's totally uncoachable I expect a lot of his negatives to get smoothed out a bit over the next few years with some possibly even becoming slight positives.

[TheZachAttack]

I don't get why everyone is so stubborn in their opinions about young prospects, apparently a lot of people jumped early on the opinion that he's just a scorer that can't do anything else, and even when the guy is clearly improving several of the skills he was projected to, guys refuse to acknowledge it.

He's running pick'n'rolls now, which is something few people thought he could do this early, and they're running the crunch time offense directly through him. He still has tunnel vision, but his ball handling has improved a lot and he can score at will in those situations, and it's not hard to project his playmaking coming around in a year or two. Even if his shooting doesn't sustain this level, I don't see shooting ever being a weakness of him, and I'm convinced his defense will also come around after a couple of years under Thibodeau. He's gonna be really good.

It's already starting to come around. I don't get the stubborness either it's so weird. Wiggins is 21. His lack of playmaking is/was largely tied to his lack of handles. His handles are much improved. His playmaking is improving too . We've got all of these armchair scouts comparing his skills at 21 to those of NBA superstars in their primes.

[Crazy-Canuck]

Defensively, much like kat, he's playing out of position. He just looks much better chasing guards around.

[tsherkin]

even when the guy is clearly improving several of the skills he was projected to, guys refuse to acknowledge it.

Mmmm.

Actually hasn't shown any improvement as a rebounder. Has shown marginal improvement as a playmaker, Uses screens as the ball-handler all the time this year, and it's about 50% more by proportion than he did last year, at about the same level. Mid-range game hasn't improved. Perimeter shooting may well have, but it won't be possible to tell how much until this unsustainable nonsense cools down.

I think it's functionally clear that he's not priming to turn himself into some 5, 6 apg player, which is mostly what people are talking about when discussing his limitations as a playmaker relative to player ceiling. It's not that he can't do a little of this or that, it's not that he isn't showing signs of some sort of improvement here and there, it's that if he's not already flashing the things we saw at similar ages from other guys, the odds of him developing that area of his game enough to matter are fairly limited.

I don't see shooting ever being a weakness of him

Which is a little strange, given that he's been nearly useless away from the rim so far in his career, this season aside. He wouldn't be the first young player to struggle with the conditioning, the travel, adjusting to the pace of the game, etc, etc. Carmelo was a sick shooter in college and kind of flubbed it his first two seasons before settling in, for example, so it's totally possible that Wiggins is just finding his groove in that regard... but he was always the unpolished athlete as far as his skills profile, unlike Melo.

We've seen him develop post game. He's one of the premier post wings in the league at the moment, actually, but a lot of the core "criticisms" (and here we're really talking about observations noting his limitations as a potential superstar relative to the guys we've seen the last 20, 30 years) more than real rips on him as a player.

Wiggins is going to be good, but he's already delayed relative to the guys who went on to hit the league like a proper storm, which makes it less and less likely that he'll develop into that level of player. Won't stop projections of him as a very high-quality player even still ,though. Keep in mind what "that level of player" really means, yeah? we're mostly talking top 20, top 10 players in the history of the game. Capping enthusiasm for projecting Wiggins to that extent is a little different than taking a swipe at the guy as we move into his third season, you know what I mean?

[QRich3]

Mmmm

See, that's pretty much what I mean, why focus on his rebounding or if he's gonna be Carmelo/Durant or whatever. Rebounding is specially something that I don't think will help his game that much, so I find it odd that everyone wants to make that some massive weakness of his. He can impact the game so many ways other than his raw boxscore numbers, and he's improving steadily in many aspects already, even if he's not at many others yet.

I fully disagree that he doesn't project as a good playmaker, and I don't think assists numbers have much predictive value on that front. If he can run a pick'n'roll and get to the rim or pull up the way he's showing he can, it's a matter of time and experience for him to be able to pass the ball to the open man in those situations. Guys like Westbrook or Derozan showed similar lack of vision at first, but with that ability to get into the paint and break down defenses, it was always a matter of time for them to make use that skill.

And using all-time top 10 players as the standard to judge him (or anyone) seems very unreasonable, even if you fully bought into his high school hype. There's a world of possibilities between that and Rudy Gay 2.0