andrewww wrote:
.....but the actual stats that count reflect Kobe as the superior player [to Garnett] imo.
I disagree. I'm going to repost some of my previous post, which looked at some broad-strokes statistical comparison using the "all-in-one" box-based rate metrics: PER, WS/48, BPM, and efficiency differential.
Few things it's important to acknowledge too.....
PER puts a lot of value in volume scoring and low turnover rate.
WS/48, BPM, and efficiency differential all have some degree of "winner's bias", as the actual player value is drawn somewhat from the team result:
*Total WS is constructed such that the total for a team is going to be somewhat close to the team's actual number of wins (thus WS/48 is affected by this).
**BPM and ORtg/DRtg are curved towards the
team's scoring differential.
What that means is: if Player A and Player B had the EXACT same box stats (
exactly the same ppg, orpg, drpg, apg, spg, bpg, topg, and FG/FT numbers in the EXACT same mpg)........but Player A's team had a better record or MOV, then Player A will be rated better by WS/48, BPM, and efficiency differential.
Not saying this isn't justifiable or without reason (I've often suggested it's one thing to put up a particular stat line for a basement level team, quite another to do so for a good team); but merely pointing out that these metrics (all other things being equal) do have winner's bias.
This could be relevant in a Kobe v Garnett comparison, as Kobe had the better teammates (and thus team results) over much of their respective careers. One could debate that they had things pretty even (as far as quality of supporting casts) from '05 on if they want; but no one can really argue (with sincerity) that Kobe didn't have it better from '03/'04 and earlier. And yet.....
Kobe peak statistical year ('06): 28.0 PER, .224 WS/48, +5.8 BPM, 114 ORtg/105 DRtg (+9) in 41.0 mpg
Garnett peak statistical year ('04): 29.4 PER, .272 WS/48, +9.9 BPM, 112 ORtg/92 DRtg (+20) in 39.4 mpg
*KG in '05 and arguably '06 as well, both statistically superior to Kobe's best year, fwiw
Kobe '00-'13 (14 seasons): 24.1 PER, .190 WS/48, +4.7 BPM, 112 ORtg/105 DRtg (+7) in 38.8 mpg
Garnett '99-'12 (14 seasons): 24.4 PER, .207 WS/48, +6.5 BPM, 111 ORtg/98 DRtg (+13) in 36.7 mpg
^^^I would say there's a not huge but clear edge to Garnett in the rs.
Playoffs swing things closer, but still very nearly a draw:
Kobe in playoffs '00-'12: 23.0 PER, .166 WS/48, +4.8 BPM, 110 ORtg/106 DRtg (+4) in 41.5 mpg
Garnett in playoffs '99-'11: 22.1 PER, .162 WS/48, +5.5 BPM, 106 ORtg/99 DRtg (+7) in 38.8 mpg
I'm just not seeing how this clearly reflects Kobe as the superior player. And this before getting into on/off, RAPM, or other impact indicators (which largely paint Garnett as superior).
AdagioPace wrote:therealbig3 wrote:So Kobe has a minuscule edge, while KG destroys him as a defensive player, which is poorly captured in box score stats. He destroys him in +/-. And he had the worse team most of the time. How that isn't a big deal is beyond me.
nonsense
Nobody destroys nobody in terms of +/-
it's like saying Garnett destroys Kobe(a policeman) in the field of cooking
We can debate the semantics of a word like "destroys", but on/off and RAPM do [fairly heavily at times] favor Garnett in this comparison.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
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