Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #10 - 1986-87 Magic Johnson

[Proxy]

No time to add a big post for #3

-2017 Stephen Curry

● Arguably the GOAT scoring regular season in 2016 - 42.5 points per 75/Lead leading scoring average of 30.1 PPG, on a game-breaking 124 TS+(!), leading the Dubs to a #1 ITW +8.1 rORTG(iirc this ranked t3 ever but they didnt go as much into offense as the 04 Mavs and 05 Suns and their -2.6 rDRTG got them to a >+10 net rating

●Warps defenses like no other with his shooting threat(spacing) and all-time off-ball movement(gravity). - All-time scalability contributed to unmatched team dominance with more talent wasadded. 15.4 box creation estimate in 2016 - arguably still understating his off-ball value(via backpicks.coms)

●Good passer for a PG, though not rly one of his stronger passing seasons - 7.6 passer rating via backpicks.com in 2017, decent turnover economy

●Solid POA defender, and is decent as a chaser which helps contribute to him being a good team defender, though his defense has improved in 2022 with added bulk, I'd still say he's a slight positive in the year chosen. Attacking Steph has also not really been that viable of a strategy generally and teams have mostly gotten bad offenses out of that so idk why people are so bent on that tbh. I think people struggle to understand that he gets attacked because he’s surrounded by a bunch of defenders better than him, not because he’s some bad or really exploitable defender or anything.

●For the stats, I'm sure you'll see Steph pop up at the top of any APM studies, with larger team samples showing that he deserves a significant amount of credit for team dominance(don't find his collinearity with Draymond a strong argument)

●Highest 5-year on/off and on court net rating of all-time: 15 - '19 Stephen Curry(+15.9 on-court net/+17.7 on/off)

●Many would however argue his effectiveness declines in the playoffs, however in the 2017 season into the playoffs when healthy, if there were any doubt about his resilience, I believe he was basically performing around the same level as a player as he was in 2016 - there were no significant change in his skillset, he rly just had a weird start at the start of the season when incorporating KD and when they took off they were arguably the best healthy team ever.

● There are still some indicators that suggest he still has extremely high, top 5 ish level impact in the playoffs - such as his on/off only taking a slight dip when taking only games he played in, and his change in scoring efficiency against stronger defenses in his prime isn't rly abnormal for an all-time standard, really only being dented by the Rockets switching defense and the Memphis Grizzlies in his prime and dismantling other all-time defenses like the 2019 Raptors and 2022 Celtics past his peak(though the physical changes arguably did help him a lot).

●Even without Klay and KD(arguably rly the only strong positive offensive players on some of those teams) - his scoring, and more importantly team dominance were extremely high in the playoffs - from 2016-2019 the Warriors had a 119 ORTG and +10 net rating without those two on the court via pbpstats.com (a very small sample of 287 minutes). Still, again I believe reinforces the idea that he was really the driving force behind the Warriors' dominance(+12 team net rating in the playoffs from 2015 to 2022 iirc).

●I'm not the biggest fan of using postseason one-number metrics at all(especially if they are hybrids because the box prior can underrate/overrate particular abilities, which I will go into on a future player), but even APM approximates like backpicks.com's AuPM/g paint 2017 playoffs Steph as having the 3rd highest peak on record of +7.5/g(!), right behind 2009 and 2017 LeBron and one spot ahead of Timmy in 2003. This makes sense seeing as how they had a staggering +17.2 net rating in those playoffs and still had a 123 ORTG in 127 minutes without Durant that year while they only had a 105 ORTG in an almost insignificant 60-minute sample with Durant and without Curry via pbpstats.com.

●I think of Steph similarly to how I think of Russell, both the driving forces behind two of the arguably top three dynasties to play the game with outlier-ish level value on one end and having a possibly misunderstood, underrated, positive value on the other end.

-2004 Kevin Garnett

●Kevin Garnett IMO contributes more positive value in different aspects than any other player that has ever played the game. I’m running out of time so I’ll link some great breakdowns of his offense and defense and why he was one of the most valuable players on both ends by drza and I will just explain why I regard him so highly.

Offense: https://hoopslab.rotowire.com/post/150868850871/mechanisms-of-greatness-scouting-kevin-garnetts

Defense: https://hoopslab.rotowire.com/post/150844038866/mechanisms-of-greatness-scouting-kevin-garnetts

●Strengthening the argument that Kevin Garnett was one of the most valuable players of his era, arguably being THE most valuable at his peak in the regular season. KG in the 2003-04 season provided the highest single-season APM/g of +9.4 leading a pretty mediocre twolves cast to a +5.9 net rating, 58 wins, and the top of the western conference in the the deadball era, with a shot to make the finals if not for injury(via backpicks.com) and four other seasons in the top forty all-time. KG alongside LeBron stand alone at the top upon the top of any of these type of value measurements and they have an argument for being the top two most valuable players in the league in the 2000s(with Shaq and Timmy being right there too ofc for their peaks but Tim looking slightly behind).
Year by year in his prime:
1997 - +4.5
1998 - +4.8
1999 - +5
2000 - +6 (26th all–time)
2001 - +2.1
2002 - +3.6
2003 - +7.2(11th all-time)
2004 - +9.4(1st all-time)
2005 - +4.5
2006 - +4.6
2007(inj)  - +6.2 (23rd all-time)
2008 - +6.3 (21st all-time)
2009(inj) - +5.3
2010 - +3.5
2011 - +4.8
2012 - +3.2

●I would normally be skeptical of the 2003/2004 Wolves results as it is easier to be more valuable on a weaker team more dependent on his strengths, but the recurring signal in which he posted massive value signals again with an even stronger, less dependent team in Boston(a -8.6 rDRTG in his first season there - a +11.3 net rating in the RS and +8.8 and +8.6 PS team net rating in the '08 and '10 playoff runs respectively) matches the film suggesting that he was possibly the most versatile player of all-time, with his ability as both a floor raiser and ceiling raiser and that his results in Minnesota were not just some outlier that should be ignored.
The reason I am so high on KG is that I believe his game is actually extremely resilient to the playoffs and that people over-fixate on his scoring weaknesses, which leads to his value being understated in box metrics because of his scoring efficiency does drop(normal for an all-timer), the box score is also genuinely pretty bad at gauging defensive value that does have the possibility of increasing in value in the playoffs.  This scouting report  by SideshowBob from a few years ago describes some ways in which many aspects of his game can not be measured traditionally by box metrics, and in a larger sample of raw +/- data we see that his game may have translated well to the playoffs despite the drop in scoring efficiency:
[ quote]

Garnett's offense can be broken down like this:

-Spacing
-PnR (Roll/Pop)
-High-Post
-Low-Post
-Mid-Post
-Screens

Remember, there is overlap between these offensive skills/features; I'm trying to give a broad-strokes perspective here.

Let's talk about his shooting really quick, and then dive in.  What I want to consider is how and which of these traits show up in the box-score, as well as which would be resilient in the face of smarter defenses.


-Has range out to the 3 pt line but practically/effectively speaking, he's going out to ~22 feet.
-From 10-23 feet, shot 47.7% in 03 (9.6 FGA/G), 45.2% in 04 (11.0 FGA/G), 44.6% in 05 (8.3 FGA/G), 48.4% in 06 (8.4 FGA/G)
-16-23 ft range, he's assisted on ~77% over those 4 years
-Shooting at the big-man positions is a conundrum - shooting 4/5s are often associated with weak (breakeven) or bad (negative) defense.  Garnett is one of the few exceptions in that not only is he an elite shooter, there's virtually no defensive opportunity cost to playing him over anyone in history.

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When he's on the ball, he can utilize his exceptional ball-handling skills to create separation and knock it down.  When he's off the ball, he's always a threat to convert - the fact that he's assisted so frequently on 16-23 ft shots means they're mostly coming on a Pick and Pop or a drive and kick, which means a lot of them are open.  He's usually shooting around 45% overall from there, so we're looking at high 40s on open shots and low-mid 40s on created ones.  BOTH of those numbers are strong, and that's where the first offensive trait comes; Spacing.  His shooting spaces the floor.  A LOT - despite the fact that he doesn't shoot 3s, he forces bigs out of the paint and opens up the lane.  Because he's not a 3-point shooter though, this effect doesn't really show up in the box-score.  And yet, this effect will always be present; doesn't matter how much a defense slows down his raw production in the playoffs, the spacing effect will always be present - he's going to try and create shots from out there and he's going to pop/spot-up; give him space/leave him open and he'll convert at .95-1.00 PPP (which is very strong in the halfcourt).  Cover him/recover on him with a little guy and he'll just shoot right over.  His man has to come out and try and cover him, and this means that there will always be a marginal improvement for the rest of the team with regards to the lane being open.  The only real way to reduce this?  Have someone at the 1-3 that can cover him (has the size/strength to cope with his shot/inside game for stretches at a time), but even then, you might yield a disadvantage with one of your bigs covering a small ball-handler. 

So next, his PnR game.  Crucially, he's a dual threat, he's deadly popping out (as demonstrated above) but even crazier rolling to the basket (high 60s-70ish finishing, that includes post/isolation, thus baskets on the roll would likely be higher.  The rolls are similar (though not equal) to drives to the basket and aside from finishing offer an opportunity to kick it out.  THIS aspect is captured fairly well by the box-score (rolls into finishes - FG%, finishes - PTS, kick outs - direct assists).  This is also one that good PnR defense teams can slow down.  Close off the PnR by stopping the ball handler (aggressive blitz/trap to force the ball out their hands before the PnR is initiated, or drop center, ice sideline to deny the ball-handler middle), or rely on strong rotations into the lane to close off easy baskets off a roll.  When we talk about his postseason dips (mainly PPG and TS%), this is mostly where they're coming from (and face up game which I'll get to later).

So now, the post options.  The high post probably yields the largest fraction of his offensive impact.  His scoring skills (again, ball-handling to set up midrange game, quickness/explosion to attack the basket straight on, catch&shoot/spotup, etc.) means that he draws a great amount of attention here, again, pulling a big away from the restricted area and up to the free throw line.  This is significant because he can spot and capitalize on any off ball movement, use his passing to force rotations until an opportunity is created, play the give and go with a small.  Essentially, there are a ton of options available here due to his gravity and diversity, yet almost none of this will show up in the box-score.  Unless he hits a cutter with a wide open lane or a shooter with a wide open corner, he's not going to be credited with the assist. 

Imagine - he sucks/turns the attention of the defense to himself, a cutter sees an opening and zips in from the wing, which forces a defender from the corner to come over and protect the basket, leaving a shooter open. Garnett hits the cutter who dishes it out, or he kicks the ball out to the perimeter and it is swung around to the open shooter.  Garnett's pressure created the opening, and his passing/vision got the ball where it needed to go, but he's given no credit in the box-score. 

Give and go is another example - at the top of the key, he gets the ball, his man (a big) is now worried about his shot and starts to close in, the lane has one less protector, the PG who just threw it in to him now curls around him with a quick handoff, his defender now runs into Garnett or his man and the PG gets an open lane to the basket.  If someone has rotated over, a shooter will be open, if not, free layup for the PG, or a kick out for a reset for Garnett in the high/mid-block area.  IF it works out that the PG gets an opening up top on the handoff, then he may get a pullup and Garnett is credited with an assist, but in most scenarios, it will play out that again, Garnett gets no box-score credit.

The effect of this play on the offense is resilient, its going to remain present against strong defenses.  It doesn't matter how strong your rotations are or what kind of personnel you have, the key is that adjustments have to be made to combat a talented high-post hub, and when adjustments are made, there is always a cost (which means the defense must yield somewhere) and therein lies the impact.  This is one of the most defense-resistant AND portable offensive skillsets that one can have (you're almost never going to have issue with fit) and its what made Garnett, Walton, 67 Chamberlain, so valuable.

Mid-Post and face-up game are a little more visible in the box-score (similar to PnR).  Mostly comprised of either blowing by the defender and making quick moves to the basket (and draw a foul) or setting up the close-mid-range shot.  This is his isolation offense, something that will tend to suffer against stronger, well equipped defenses that can close off the lane, which sort of strips away the "attack the basket, draw free throws" part and reduces it to just set up mid-range jumpshots.  Garnett's obviously great at these, but taking away the higher-percentage inside shots will hurt his shooting numbers, volume, and FTA bit.  The key then is, how disciplined is the defense.  Yes they can close the paint off, but can they do so without yielding too much somewhere else - was there a missed rotation/help when someone left his man to help cover the paint.  If yes, then there is impact, as there is anytime opportunities are created, if no then its unlikely any opportunity was created and the best option becomes to just shoot a jumper.  This is the other feature of his game that isn't as resilient in the face of smart defenses.

The low-post game is crucial because it provides both a spacing effect and the additional value of his scoring.  While he lacks the upper body strength to consistently finish inside against larger bigs, he can always just shoot over them at a reliable % instead, and against most matchups he's skilled enough back-to-basket and face-up that he can typically get to the rim and score.  Being able to do this means that he draws attention/doubles, and he's one of the best at his position ever at capitalizing by passing out to an open shooter or kicking it out to swing the ball around the perimeter to the open guy (in case the double comes from the opposite corner/baseline) and all of this action tends force rotations enough that you can get some seams for cuts as well.  Outside of scoring or making a direct pass to the open guy, the hockey assists won't show up in the box-score.  But, more importantly, there is a crucial utility in having a guy diverse enough that he can play inside and out equally effectively - lineup diversity.  He fills so many staples of an offense himself that it allows the team to run more specialized lineups/personnel that might not conventionally work, and this forces defenses to adjust (! that's a key word here).  He doesn't have to do anything here that shows up in the box-score, all he needs to do is be on the floor.  You can argue the low-post ability as a 50/50 box-score/non-box-score, but I'd lean towards giving the latter more weight.

Finally screens.  The effect of Garnett's screens is elite, because of his strong lower body base and because of the diversity of his offensive threat (and he just doesn't get called for moving screens).  Its tough for most players to go through/over a Garnett screen, which makes him ideal for setting up jumpers and cutters off the ball.  When he's screening on the ball, everyone involved has to worry about his dual scoring threat, and when that happens, that gives the ball-handler that much more space to work with.  Marginal on a single possession, significant when added up over the course of ~75 possessions, and extremely resilient - how do you stop good screens?  You don't really, you just stay as disciplined as possible.  And this effect is completely absent in the box-score.

So what's important now is to consider the fact that most of Garnett's offense does not show up in the box-score!  And I wouldn't call what he does on the floor the "little things" (this is just something people have been conditioned to say, most things that aren't covered in the box-score have become atypical/unconventional or associated with grit/hustle, despite the fact that these are pretty fundamental basketball actions/skills).  Something like 75-80% of his offensive value just simply isn't tracked by "conventional" recordkeeping, yet the focus with Garnett is almost always on the dip in scoring and efficiency.  So what if the 20% that is tracked has fallen off.  Even if that aspect of his game fell off by 50% (it hasn't), the rest of his game is so fundamentally resilient that I'm not even sure what degree of defense it would take to neutralize it (at least to an effective degree, I'm welcome to explanations), and that still puts him at 80-90% of his max offensive impact (given the increased loads he was typically carrying in the playoffs, I doubt it even went that low).  The generalized argument against him of course tends to be "where are the results", and quite frankly it needs to be hammered home that his Minnesota casts were actually that bad.  Not mid 2000s Kobe/Lebron bad, like REALLY bad, like worst of any top 10 player bad. [/quote

^https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1587761&p=57014420&hilit=KG#p57014420

●So like I said before, I believe the big ticket has an argument that he added positive value in more different ways than any other player ever, this skillset allowed him to both be one of the best floor-raisers, and one of the best ceiling-raisers of all time as well too, and to me his game has shown to be resilient to the playoffs over a larger postseason sample size(one data point is how is on/ off in the RS from '00 to '12 is +12.4, while it is +17.8 in that same stretch)

●Some of my quick thoughts when voting and why I haven't put a few of the closest people I think have arguments on my ballot(again I will go into more detail when I have more time/they are more popular picks). I would love to hear other thoughts if people disagree with what I have to say ofc

Mikan: Lack of research/data of the era - ive heard ppl call the mid 50s Lakers a superteam as well so i'm not sure how to isolate his value and would like if someone could touch on that more

Oscar: Kinda feels similar to Magic in value but I feel the offensive gap is bigger than whatever defensive gap there is(if there is any)

Jerry: Might need to do a direct comp between him and Oscar but they seem about the same in overall value and maybe similar level performers(and I don't think Oscar is quite t10 level peak wise) when matched against the same level of comp in the playoffs when factoring situation (I think Oscar  was clearly better offensively and West was better defensively). Oscar looks more impactful to his teams from what i've seen but Jerry likely scales up better and it's possible his playoff elevation takes him into the next tier.

Julius: Not sure how to weight his PS dominance exactly, statistically looks absurd but there are only like 2 games available to watch(where he does looks dominant in). ABA by that point seems similar in quality to the NBA so I don't mind that. Kind've weird impact signals in the NBA where idt he DRASTICALLY changed as a player(knee problems affected him in the late 70s) but also not sure how valuable the on/off stuff is without lineup/rotation data. Looks like a truly all-time floor raiser but maybe scalability concerns. I'll get back to him later but a film comparison might help because maybe i'm just missing some important stuff.

Walton: Mainly durability/sample size related(confidence) - only one playoff run anywhere near his level, maybe his seemingly pretty sizable impact on the Celtics in 1986 could be used for a pro-Walton case

Drob: Not sure about the resilience of his offense, it isn't only the playoffs but against elite defenses in general he struggled alot more than other all-timers, he would look better with an actually decent supporting cast offensively but I also see issues I think arise regardless so idk. I have to think more about him.

Kobe: Yeah he's one of the vert rare PS risers and has faced an absurd amount of tough defensive comp but if you are rising from a player that looks clearly worse than players in this tier does that really put him on this level? Not sure the data supports that and I never saw him as that in the film - if he wasn't playing through injuries constantly and had an extra lung(I think his defensive motor wasn't consistent) I think he'd have a strong argument for being at a t10 level for me maybe. Maybe his portability/scalability makes up for that because I think his high value in the 3 distinct main stages was about the same, which you probably can't say for everyone.

Wade: Mainly scalability concerns(will discuss more probably when he's brought up more frequently for consideration), also not strong passing vision kinda hurts him as a offensive engine in the playoffs even if his scoring is so resilient - not sure how much this affects his ranking though, his 2006 run was so special and his 2009 regular season waa ridiculous

KD: I think he has as slower processing speed and struggles more to immediately recognize the most optimal play than the other offensive players in this tier. He also struggles alot balancing his scoring and playmaking a bit more than others here - part why his impact foorprint in OKC looks very slightly worse than the players here i think. Not sure how to balance how valuable he is as a primary in the playoffs vs how much he excels in other roles, I do find his defense fairly valuable though.

Giannis: Questionable variability in his offense in the playoffs and i'm not quite how many issues he's solved over the years when other weird issues keep popping up against elite defenses and sometimes not even good defenses like the Nets, some being approach based(strangely actually very underwhelming passing, offensive fouls, early shot clock jumpers to name a few) but i do think he's improved off the ball. His absurd defense may still put him high for me(I think he could be a top 15 defender peak for peak ever)

Jokic: Concerns about his defense in a playoff setting. Alot of the metrics favoring his regular seasons turn their backs in the PS, the Nuggets DRTG with him on is porous(like 122 DRTG or something crazy since 2020), and there is reason to believe his impact does not translate 1:1(things like defense, teams selling out to limit his playmaking value albeit allowing him to score more so their offense isn't as effective).

1. 2017 Stephen Curry
(2016)
-When push comes to shove I feel Steph has a slightly more impressive statistical footprint and argument for the playoffs than KG, without the 2021 regular season where I was quite impressed with what Steph did in that circumstance as a floor raiser when they moved off Wiseman I might've went KG over him here
2. 2004 Kevin Garnett
(2003)
3. 1987 Magic Johnson
(1988)
-IMO a top 4 offensive player OAT,  I think he's too similar in quality to Steph on both ends for me to justify him going much lower. Best passer(taking production into account), strong scorer and, best playmaker ever, neutral-ish defensive impact. Unparalled stretch of team offensive production and resilience in the playoffs where the team never fell below a +3.9 rORTG in the years he was healthy. Peaking at a mind boggling +10.7 rORTG in 1987. Feel a bit more confident in him than any other pick.

[MyUniBroDavis]

I can’t lie Curry being second for like the fourth vote in a row is kinda weird lol

The people who are lower on him still had a bunch of guys ahead of him

The people who are higher on him have had him first since like 3rd place vote at earliest

For me while im voting him, I do have concerns about his defense in specific matchups, but level of play wise it’s hard to go against him

I do think that there seems to be this weird thing that whenever a post 2010s guy ranks high you get a bunch of people going “pshhhh wow look at all this RECENCY BIAS”, yet seasons like 2017 Curry and 2021 Giannis are extremely clear examples of

I understand that ranking players in an absolute sense is unfair to past players, although i don’t actually know how the board feels about that as a whole (I know me and 70sfan represent the absolute edges of that spectrum, with him on the side that time portalled west beats Kobe and me on the side that KCP would obliterate him)

At the same time, it’s a bit odd to me that people seem to act as if there’s some sort of huge recency bias on this board sometimes when the only person in the top 15 peaks most likely from 2010 onwards is gonna be curry.

It might be unrealistic to expect players to continuously provide as much seperation from their peers, especially with defensive impact being harder to attain in general.

I find myself hard pressed to know who to put Giannis above in that 5-10 area, but it feels as if implying thats a discussion seems absurd to some and I don’t understand that, my main gripe is how close his defense was to his 2019-2020 self, if I thought his defense was exactly equal to his 2020 defense I’d have him as a top 5 peak potentially

[70sFan]

the only person in the top 15 peaks most likely from 2010 onwards is gonna be curry

It's not possible, because 2013 James is already in

[MyUniBroDavis]

the only person in the top 15 peaks most likely from 2010 onwards is gonna be curry

It's not possible, because 2013 James is already in

Should have said 3 point revolution onwards lol, I def count 2013 bron as before that. Honestly I’m really not high on 2013 lebron at all, I’m in a minority on this but I don’t think of it as a top 5 lebron season

[MyUniBroDavis]

To be clear I’m not saying it’s blasphemous that Curry hasn’t been voted in yet, I just think the general idea that 2015-2022 players are overrated is silly

On another note, I do think what Doc MJ said, that 6/10 players in the top 10 are bigs, and in particular most of them post up bigs which is the least valuable position in the nba nowadays.

This isn’t to say that they would not be successful today, but most of them succeeded as back to the basket bigs whose cases were based on their two way impact.

However, while big men are still the most impactful defenders today, I do think it has been decreased a bit or tilted a bit. A guy like Gobert is arguably the Mutombo of his time and while absolutely elite isn’t exactly an overwhelming outlier like Mutombo was on that end for a few years in defensive RAPM

[Proxy]

I think Giannis has a decent chance to end top 15, but Jokic i'm way less confident on. KD(honestly might be my top choice for another "modern" player to go in but I have to compare more and I doubt that he'd make my t15 rn), Kawhi, and CP3 I think have like <5% odds of getting into the t15 lol

[MyUniBroDavis]

I think Giannis has a decent chance to end top 15, but Jokic i'm way less confident on. KD(honestly might be my top choice for another modern player to go in but I have to compare more and I doubt that he'd make my t15 rn), Kawhi, and CP3 I think have like <5% odds of getting into the t15 lol

KD and Kawhi are weird, Kawhi especially

I just don’t think either of them are better than Kobe, but I would take peak Kawhi over peak Curry if I’m starting a playoff run and we don’t get an assurance they played like they did.

KD is weird because in theory he translates back incredibly well, otoh, there’s a lot of time I feel I’m hyping up Durant for what he should be able to do rather than what he actually does

I will say that Giannis’s 2020 season is hardly ever mentioned as one of the best defensive regular seasons ever, at the same time I would assume relative to era it might stand up to some of Duncan’s and Garnett’s best ones

[70sFan]

the only person in the top 15 peaks most likely from 2010 onwards is gonna be curry

It's not possible, because 2013 James is already in

Should have said 3 point revolution onwards lol, I def count 2013 bron as before that. Honestly I’m really not high on 2013 lebron at all, I’m in a minority on this but I don’t think of it as a top 5 lebron season

Post three point revolution LeBron also would have been voted in already.

I agree that in this project, we don't see a recency bias. With that being said, the league has 75 years. We shouldn't expect to have 5 players in top 15 from the last 15 years.

[70sFan]

KD is weird because in theory he translates back incredibly well

You mean back in time? I'm not really sure, his dribbling game would be highly limited in any other era.

I will say that Giannis’s 2020 season is hardly ever mentioned as one of the best defensive regular seasons ever, at the same time I would assume relative to era it might stand up to some of Duncan’s and Garnett’s best ones

Is there any reason why it should be seen as one of the best defensive regular seasons ever? That's a geniue question, does he look so outlier-ish compared to other seasons in the last 10 years?

[Dutchball97]

I can’t lie Curry being second for like the fourth vote in a row is kinda weird lol

The people who are lower on him still had a bunch of guys ahead of him

The people who are higher on him have had him first since like 3rd place vote at earliest

For me while im voting him, I do have concerns about his defense in specific matchups, but level of play wise it’s hard to go against him

I do think that there seems to be this weird thing that whenever a post 2010s guy ranks high you get a bunch of people going “pshhhh wow look at all this RECENCY BIAS”, yet seasons like 2017 Curry and 2021 Giannis are extremely clear examples of

I understand that ranking players in an absolute sense is unfair to past players, although i don’t actually know how the board feels about that as a whole (I know me and 70sfan represent the absolute edges of that spectrum, with him on the side that time portalled west beats Kobe and me on the side that KCP would obliterate him)

At the same time, it’s a bit odd to me that people seem to act as if there’s some sort of huge recency bias on this board sometimes when the only person in the top 15 peaks most likely from 2010 onwards is gonna be curry.

It might be unrealistic to expect players to continuously provide as much seperation from their peers, especially with defensive impact being harder to attain in general.

I find myself hard pressed to know who to put Giannis above in that 5-10 area, but it feels as if implying thats a discussion seems absurd to some and I don’t understand that, my main gripe is how close his defense was to his 2019-2020 self, if I thought his defense was exactly equal to his 2020 defense I’d have him as a top 5 peak potentially

One thing I feel gets overlooked a bit in the discussion about active players is that it is very possible they haven't had their best season yet. The peak seasons of the 9 players voted in so far are between age 26 (03 Duncan) and age 31 (94 Hakeem). Looking at some of the guys getting traction for the next spot you've got 04 KG, 83 Moses and 87 Magic all being 27, 17 Curry was 28 and 95 Robinson was 29. Giannis is entering his age 28 season, while Jokic is going into his age 27 season next year and I don't see either of them slowing down in the next few years.

[MyUniBroDavis]

KD is weird because in theory he translates back incredibly well

You mean back in time? I'm not really sure, his dribbling game would be highly limited in any other era.

I will say that Giannis’s 2020 season is hardly ever mentioned as one of the best defensive regular seasons ever, at the same time I would assume relative to era it might stand up to some of Duncan’s and Garnett’s best ones

Is there any reason why it should be seen as one of the best defensive regular seasons ever? That's a geniue question, does he look so outlier-ish compared to other seasons in the last 10 years?

For KD, his dribbling would look worse, but I’ve never thought of him as being great for his ability to get to the rim anyways. To me he’s very much in the discussion for best midrange shooter ever, his career averages from 10 feet to 23 feet is equivalent to dirks peak, and he’s been an high upper tier effeciency player in the post for awhile now.

I had the data for Giannis in an earlier post, but just scrolling through since I’m on my phone and mostly from memory

Using the shotcharts dataset…

On defense, the gap between first and second is usually something like 0.1-0.3, because they use a bit lower numbers in general in recent years

2020
3.49 (Giannis)
2.58 (Matthews)
2.28

2022
2.41
2.23

2021
2.74 (Gobert)
2.21 (Conley)
2.1

2019
2.03
1.79 (Giannis)

2018
2.73
2.56

2017
2.32 (Gobert)
2.03

2016
2.54
2.45

2015
2.57
2.55

2014
2.47
2.12

2013
4.06 (KG)
3.39

2012
4.21 (Gibson)
3.46

2011
4.25 (KG)
3.16 (might have gotten the last digit wrong)

2010
2.77(TD)
2.7

Just some of the best years from luck adjustments in terms of gaps since I’m in a bit of a time crunch, but generally the gaps other than the years I showed were the same

2011
5.39 KG
4.65

2013
3.93 KG
3.14

2019
2.18 (Giannis)
1.71 (bledsoe)
1.71 (Lopez)
1.69

2020
3.19 (Giannis)
2.07 (Matthews)
2.04 (Middleton)
1.93 (Lopez)
1.8 (gasol)


2021
2.11
1.87

2022
1.98 (horford)
1.47

Especially taking into account collinearnity stuff probably means giannis is a bit underrated (Jokic has this issue with his luck adjusted rapm, first on offense but Aaron Gordon tied with him basically), the fact that just from those two and from a glance I think his standard deviations above 0 is the best from 2010-2022, I think it’s fair to call it historic.

Different datasets will say differently, I know shadows from abpr had him as a clear first although not by as much as on here, fwiw. otoh, the team results, the results with him on and off the court, both in net rtg and games he missed, definately support it as well

Either way based on this one giannis’s ranks a good deal better than even the Boston kg years (only goes from 2010-2022), and given that his npi defensive rapm wasn’t substantially more dominant in 08 vs the years it looks good here, and by luck adjustments actually much further increasing his dominance, it definately is historic in this regard I’d assume

On one hand, the bucks defense going from average in 2021 and 2022 to clearly elite in the playoffs is probably from more than just giannis starting to try.

At the same time, it’s hard to ignore how much better his impact data on defense looks in the playoffs, in 2021 I think he’s the only rotation player other than lopez (-0.4) whose a net positive on defense, although this is because they’re garbage time lineup defenses were elite, and his data in 2022 in general is incredible in that regard

[LA Bird]

Here are the results for round 10

Winner: 87 Johnson

There were 18 voters in this round: f4p, Dutchball97, capfan33, trex_8063, mdonnelly1989, MyUniBroDavis, Doctor MJ, DraymondGold, ceoofkobefans, confucius, iggymcfrack, letskissbro, Djoker, SickMother, Dr Positivity, falcolombardi, jalengreen, Proxy

A total of 33 seasons received at least 1 vote: 03 Garnett, 04 Garnett, 06 Bryant, 06 Wade, 07 Bryant, 08 Bryant, 09 Bryant, 09 Wade, 15 Curry, 16 Curry, 17 Curry, 17 Leonard, 18 Curry, 19 Curry, 20 Antetokounmpo, 20 Jokic, 21 Antetokounmpo, 21 Curry, 21 Jokic, 22 Antetokounmpo, 22 Curry, 22 Jokic, 50 Mikan, 51 Mikan, 76 Erving, 83 Malone, 87 Johnson, 88 Johnson, 89 Johnson, 90 Johnson, 94 Robinson, 95 Robinson, 96 Robinson

Top 5 seasons
87 Johnson: 1.000 (32-0)
17 Curry: 0.969 (31-1), loses to 87 Johnson
16 Curry: 0.938 (30-2), loses to 17 Curry, 87 Johnson
04 Garnett: 0.906 (29-3), loses to 16 Curry, 17 Curry, 87 Johnson
21 Antetokounmpo: 0.875 (28-4), loses to 04 Garnett, 16 Curry, 17 Curry, 87 Johnson

H2H record
87 Johnson vs 17 Curry: 9-6
87 Johnson vs 16 Curry: 9-5
87 Johnson vs 04 Garnett: 9-8
87 Johnson vs 21 Antetokounmpo: 13-4
17 Curry vs 16 Curry: 8-4
17 Curry vs 04 Garnett: 8-5
17 Curry vs 21 Antetokounmpo: 8-2
16 Curry vs 04 Garnett: 8-7
16 Curry vs 21 Antetokounmpo: 8-5
04 Garnett vs 21 Antetokounmpo: 8-3

[f4p]

jokic and giannis make me wonder if i'm not considering them enough at this point or have any bias against recent players, but i guess i have kawhi 2017 so i'm not exactly against recent seasons. giannis gives me pause because he didn't end the 2019/2020 playoffs well at all and even in 2021 he needed literally every contender to be injured to win. it looked like milwaukee would lose with just harden injured and then when it was harden and kyrie and harden tried to play on one leg, the bucks still lost game 5 and needed everything it took to win game 7. and atlanta was a bad opponent and the suns only won the west because the lakers, clippers, and nuggets were injured, even getting lucky enough that the clippers beat the jazz while injured. but arguably 2022 giannis felt better to me than 2021 giannis. the celtics strategy was basically guard him with 5 people and hope the bucks would shoot horribly without middleton around.

and jokic statistically just put up a ridiculous season and did everything possible with his 2nd and 3rd best players injured. and still had great playoff numbers. it doesn't feel crazy to say they aren't as great as 2017 kawhi or 1983 moses, but it also feels like i'm clearing out a whole lot of older seasons before getting to the new guys.

[Proxy]

This mainly fits what I thought, people talk about kobes low turnover percentage making up for his lower than ATG fg% but it’s more so the offensive role he had led to both of those things.

On the margin absolutely elite though so it doesn’t matter much, this is actually kind of insane his iso and post up scoring matches up with Durants best years (probably not his 2014 one) is beats out kawhi

KD is ironically the only other player I have screenshots saved for rn that I could post so why not throw in his stuff for anyone interested cuz it might be useful for anyone considering him soon

2014(couldn't get PS):


2017:

God durants such a monster lol

2014 numbers w/ playoffs included: