2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

[Colbinii]

Walker Kessler plus a ton of middle firsts is tremendous return.

But Walker Kessler was seen as a mid/late 1st at the time and the picks all project to be late lottery or later [which are players who likely won't be signing contracts after their rookie deals].

I mean Gobert was seen as an elite player lol

Sure--because he was, but then injuries ravaged the Timberwolves along with a long summer with France National Team.

But, there is 0% chance I could ever get EOY to someone who traded a star player for picks. That is half the job. If, somehow, Utah manages to turn those picks into real players to build a championship contender, then he could be available for a future EOY vote.

I apply this same logic to Presti in OKC.

[MyUniBroDavis]

But Walker Kessler was seen as a mid/late 1st at the time and the picks all project to be late lottery or later [which are players who likely won't be signing contracts after their rookie deals].

I mean Gobert was seen as an elite player lol

Sure--because he was, but then injuries ravaged the Timberwolves along with a long summer with France National Team.

But, there is 0% chance I could ever get EOY to someone who traded a star player for picks. That is half the job. If, somehow, Utah manages to turn those picks into real players to build a championship contender, then he could be available for a future EOY vote.

I apply this same logic to Presti in OKC.

Deals are evaluated in hindsight, Gobert this year is a negative asset with his contract, they got 6-7 first round picks and Kessler whose probably a bigger asset than Gobert right now, considering Gobert is under contract till 2026

I’m not saying EOY, but this is absolutely an absurd fleecing and there’s a reason people are calling it one of the worst trades ever for them atm. People thought the Gobert trade was dumb in the moment as well and IIRC it basically set the market too.

Considering moving pieces and all of that this was what they have now

Walker Kessler
THT
(Vanderbilt and Beasley)
2023 FRP
2025 FRP
2026 Pick swap
2027 FRP
2029 FRP top 4 protected
Lakers 2029 FRP

5 first round picks, a pick swap, a project player that probably won’t pan out but they see potential in, a future defensive cornerstone in Kessler, for a guy that seems like a locker room problem that’s been a role player essentially this year on a 4 year max deal remaining on his contract is an insane fleece

Oh my god I didn’t realize most of them were unprotected too this is actually insane

[Lou Fan]

Surprised at the lack of Tatum discussion in here. Don't think I'll vote because I haven't watched enough this year but seems to me he's a pretty obvious top 5 candidate.

[Colbinii]

I mean Gobert was seen as an elite player lol

Sure--because he was, but then injuries ravaged the Timberwolves along with a long summer with France National Team.

But, there is 0% chance I could ever get EOY to someone who traded a star player for picks. That is half the job. If, somehow, Utah manages to turn those picks into real players to build a championship contender, then he could be available for a future EOY vote.

I apply this same logic to Presti in OKC.

Deals are evaluated in hindsight, Gobert this year is a negative asset with his contract, they got 6-7 first round picks and Kessler whose probably a bigger asset than Gobert right now, considering Gobert is under contract till 2026

I’m not saying EOY, but this is absolutely an absurd fleecing and there’s a reason people are calling it one of the worst trades ever for them atm. People thought the Gobert trade was dumb in the moment as well and IIRC it basically set the market too.

Hindsight is 20-20.

Regardless, I don't value deals as Picks + Unproven Prospects for Stars as a EOY material. I value winning in the NBA--not accumulating assets.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Sure--because he was, but then injuries ravaged the Timberwolves along with a long summer with France National Team.

But, there is 0% chance I could ever get EOY to someone who traded a star player for picks. That is half the job. If, somehow, Utah manages to turn those picks into real players to build a championship contender, then he could be available for a future EOY vote.

I apply this same logic to Presti in OKC.

Deals are evaluated in hindsight, Gobert this year is a negative asset with his contract, they got 6-7 first round picks and Kessler whose probably a bigger asset than Gobert right now, considering Gobert is under contract till 2026

I’m not saying EOY, but this is absolutely an absurd fleecing and there’s a reason people are calling it one of the worst trades ever for them atm. People thought the Gobert trade was dumb in the moment as well and IIRC it basically set the market too.

Hindsight is 20-20.

Regardless, I don't value deals as Picks + Unproven Prospects for Stars as a EOY material. I value winning in the NBA--not accumulating assets.

But accumulating draft is how teams can get packages to trade for stars or build a team

I heard people talk about how this is one of the most lopsided deals in nba history but I thought it was an exaggeration, I didn’t realize the picks were all unprotected. He basically set the market with that trade and it’s wild they got that much for him regardless.

They basically got an MVP package for a role player on a horrible contract in hindsight, and that’s kind of how most people evaluate these things. You expect teams to give up a FRP for that not get 5 unprotected ones

[rk2023]

I'm considering Durant, Curry, Embiid, Jokic, Giannis more than I am Luka Doncic for POY ballots, assuming voting would be done right now. Would want to wait and see until PS before making any conclusion(s), but of-course that is not going to bode well for Luka.

[The-Power]

Hindsight is 20-20.

I don't think you can evaluate EOY without hindsight, honestly. If the GM trades a player for a package that he would not command a couple months later any longer, that's a win. If the Rookie they traded for showed more promise than expected, that's a win. If the franchise ends up being in a much better position going forward, that's a win.

I'm not saying that Ainge necessarily predicted that Gobert's value was at its apex and would only go downhill from there, or that he predicted that Kessler would show out as much as he did, or that he predicted that the Timberwolves would struggle as much as they did. But we also don't know that he didn't. He certainly pondered over all that before he made the move. And therefore, it makes sense to focus on the outcome and ask whether the actions of the GM left the team and franchise in a much better position or not.

If we focus on what we believed to be true at the time the moves happened, we essentially stipulate that our view at the time was objectively correct and any outcome that diverges from the expected one was simply not predictable and just good or bad lack. And that's just not a good starting point for evaluating executives.

So I'm very much in the ‘Ainge deserves a ton of credit’ camp, and that what has transpired since the moves were made has firmly elevated his claim to the award – even if we don't know how much of it was luck or not even predicted by Ainge. We simply never do, but that shouldn't lead us to dismiss great outcomes because what else would we rely on for our evaluation?

[iggymcfrack]

Do ppl still have Luka in Poy consideration for top 5? This Kyrie pairing has been an alltime disaster and really exposed his low portability and scalability. Prolly the worst ever for a perimeter player. When those 2 were on the court they just performed horrifcally poor cant remember a star pairing do that poorly when they both played.

Not really. Right now I have: Jokic, Embiid, Giannis, Tatum, Butler in that order. Luka would probably be 6th, but unless Butler loses both play-in games and absolutely NO ONE steps up in the postseason, I don't see how Luka could really move up.

[rk2023]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1KMzwRcilLDej0BWl7eYE_OYC9Tx9olI_Ptn-nHjKfpQ/htmlview#

And here we go (h/t Reddit). I'm always anti-accolades when debating and discussing careers and player comps, but always find myself very intrigued in the voting. Perhaps this is due to liking the process and wanting to hear different perspectives, but yeah let the fun unfold

[Doctor MJ]

Enjoying the conversation about EOY, so I'll start off speaking to that:

On the question of whether you can get EOY by orchestrating sell-offs, people are free to make up their own mind.

For me personally as an analyst, I don't like it. To me in the end your legacy as a GM is made by the peaks you get the team to reach, and while a well-orchestrated sell-off can help you get there, I'd rather give you the kudos when you get there.

I also think we've learned quite the explicit lesson about what tons of draft picks are actually worth. Remember that Ainge tried to trade 4 1st round picks to get Justise Winslow.

With that said, with only 30 teams in the NBA and many of them in any given year not actually making any big moves, outright eliminating a guy doing a sell-off isn't something I see as tenable, and Ainge's work this year gives an example of why.

A reasonable thing to look at when considering EOY candidates is: Who acquired an all-star this year?

Unless I'm forgetting someone, the entirety of the list:

Phoenix (Durant)
Utah (Markkanen)
Cleveland (Mitchell)
Dallas (Irving)

Remove Dallas from the list, and you're left with 3 candidates, one of whom is Utah.

Another thing to look at involves the acquisition of rookies who proved way better than was expected. That would be:

Utah (Kessler, 22nd pick, by far the most valuable rookie of the year)
OKC (Williams, 12th pick)

Another thing that we tend to look at are teams that made a coaching change in the past year that really worked out. Situations that that would include:

Sacramento (Brown)
Utah (Hardy)
Boston (Mazzulla)

Anyone who wants to add other guys to this list, go right ahead.
Anyone who wants to side with GMs other than Ainge because of how good particular moves were.

But I'd say the fact is that Ainge has a pretty serious EOY candidacy this year even if you ignore the assets he got, and ignore that it was clearly THE right time to move Gobert.

When I'm looking at candidates from the teams mentioned here are the ones I find myself really pulled toward

Ainge (Uta) - as discussed
Altman (Cle) - before the KD trade, Mitchell was the top player acquisition of the year and it has worked within this roster that Altman has built.
McNair (Sac) - acquired the guy who will almost certainly win NBA COY and saw a great leap forward with a team that had been stagnant for forever based on a bold trade he made toward the end of last year.
Jones (Phx) - got KD

I feel like the Jones conversation is one that's going to be really polarizing for us if the Suns end up winning the title. He'll be a reasonable choice to win based on being the guy who made the deal...but KD was pushing to get to Phoenix for reasons that had nothing to do with anything Jones did this year. One of the things I tend to ask myself when considering EOY is "Did this guy do something that would make me want to hire him as GM on a new team?", and honestly, I can't say my opinion of Jones has changed one bit, because he seems like he did what anyone in his position would have done.

By that same token, when looking at the guys above, who would I most want to hire? Ainge, without question. He continues to solidify his rep as the smartest guy in the room.

At the end of the RS, I like posting who my vote would be if I voted for RS awards as a starting point for what will come after in the playoffs. So now, forced to pick, I'll say:

1. Altman (Cle)
2. Ainge (Uta)
3. McNair (Sac)

Could definitely see Ainge moving up to the top spot because it's honestly some reluctance that's holding him back on my list.

Altman & McNair's teams are in the playoffs and the playoff could definitely influence my perspective here. If, for example, the Mitchell/Garland backcourt ends up seeming like too much of a vulnerability in the playoffs, that could knock Altman down.

That would imply Cleveland getting upset of course, and the Kings will probably be favored to be "upset" which wouldn't help McNair, but I'll be trying not to overreact to that.


And then Jones I'll continue to think on.

[Doctor MJ]

Just saw the GB's EOY thread so I'll mention a couple others:

Pelinka (Lakers) - nah, you don't get EOY for trading Westbrook when you're the one who traded for him and killed off your defensive depth in the first place.

Rose (Knicks) - deserves a place in the conversation. Only reason he didn't "acquire an all-star" is that it was decided to give Randle the nod again instead of Brunson. I'm expecting the Cavs to beat the Knicks, and if that's what happens, it's important to remember that the Knicks still only got to the same round they got two years ago. On the other hand, if the Knicks look awesome upsetting the Cavs and then look competitive against the Bucks, I may see things differently.

[Doctor MJ]

Thinking about COY, I'll say up front that this is an award that is heavily swayed by the playoffs for me because I think we see so much of coaching over the course of playoff series in this day and age.

I'm with the consensus that Mike Brown is the obvious pick right now, and even if his team loses in the first round, he'll still be a strong candidate.

JB Bickerstaff seems like he really deserves a lot of love for what he's continued to do in Cleveland.

I think it's noteworthy in Milwaukee that the Bucks finally are not just giving up the 3. I've been on record in the past saying that the Bucks were perpetually vulnerable to getting knocked off by great 3-point shooting teams...but maybe not any more. And with the Bucks having the best record after already winning a title and scaring the hell out of everyone last year, I feel like Coach Bud deserves to get consideration again - which I honestly haven't been doing for a few years.

Beyond this, we'll just see how stands out in the playoffs.

Something I should say - I'm real reluctant to give Massulla much consideration here unless the Celtics win the title. Not saying he's been awful, but the team's transformation was last year under Udoka and they've looked less dominant this year than they did after they got their groove last year.

[Doctor MJ]

6MOY is an award that's actually annoyed me this year.

ftr, I have Immanuel Quickley as the clear cut leader right now. If he gets exposed in the playoffs that will change things of course, but as things stand some of the arguments against him have just been so lazy.

I swear, this is the first time I can ever recall people trying to use the fact a guy started 21 games against him in this race as if anyone has ever cared about someone being a "pure worse-than-Top-150 player".

Of course, people are doing this because they only started really paying attention to Quickley when he got the start and demonstrated to all that he was a starter level player. But Quickley has been leading the Knicks in +/- his entire career, and those who didn't have that on their radar should be giving their mea culpas now rather than trying to dismiss what he's done.

I do think that guys like Malcolm Brogdan and Bobby Portis are solid candidates, and it's entirely possible they'll get the nod from me after the playoffs.

Shout out to Alex Caruso whose starts at the end of the season made him ineligible for the award...and who frankly should have been starting consistently like years ago.

[Doctor MJ]

For Most Improved Player, this is an award that I really like hearing other people's thoughts on.

I'd say my tendency is to look at first time all-stars as default candidates. Certainly possible for a guy to get my MIP vote without being an all-star, but in general I tend to see this as an award announcing a player's relevance on the grander stage.

First time all-stars this year with my thoughts:

SGA - obviously a strong candidate, but I'd feel better if I saw more obvious +/- impact
Markkanen - seems like the total package, plus has the "we did not see this coming" thing going for him
Edwards - eh, honestly, not really seeing a major leap forward for him
Fox - similar strengths and weaknesses to SGA, but has an arguably superior teammate and COY-level coaching performance helping him
Haliburton - love him but honestly his leap forward seems a bit less than some other guys
JJJ - not getting a lot of talk but honestly at this point he looks like he's the actual Grizz franchise player, that's no small thing

Shout out also to 2 Nova guys - Brunson & Bridges. I don't want to eliminate them simply because of the "new opportunity is not new improvement", but at this point I don't feel their rise is more dramatic than the top guys listed before.

At this moment, I'd probably say:
1. Markkanen
2. SGA
3. JJJ

[Doctor MJ]

ROY is largely settled before the playoffs most years, and this is no exception unless OKC does something crazy.

I think the top 3 guys are clear, and it's really philosophy that determines the ordering

Banchero - the guy who looked most like a future superstar out there at times
Jalen - the guy who looked most like a future star at the end of the year
Kessler - the Most Valuable Rookie, also possibly a future DPOY candidate

Looking forward to hearing arguments from people on this as the discussion goes along.

[The-Power]

Haliburton - love him but honestly his leap forward seems a bit less than some other guys

Could you elaborate more on why you think his leap has been comparatively less (especially compared to someone like Fox, or even SGA)?

[The-Power]

ROY is largely settled before the playoffs most years, and this is no exception unless OKC does something crazy.

I think the top 3 guys are clear, and it's really philosophy that determines the ordering

Banchero - the guy who looked most like a future superstar out there at times
Jalen - the guy who looked most like a future star at the end of the year
Kessler - the Most Valuable Rookie, also possibly a future DPOY candidate

Looking forward to hearing arguments from people on this as the discussion goes along.

I personally don't think that Banchero over Murray is a lock at all, especially if Murray has a solid playoff run. But I suppose it depends on what you value in a RoY.

[Doctor MJ]

Haliburton - love him but honestly his leap forward seems a bit less than some other guys

Could you elaborate more on why you think his leap has been comparatively less (especially compared to someone like Fox, or even SGA)?

If we compare Haliburton this year compared to what he did in Indiana last year:

PPG 17.5 -> 20.7
APG 9.6 -> 10.4
TS% 62.9 -> 62.4
PER 20.5 -> 23.6

SGA year to year:

PPG 24.5 -> 31.4
TS% 55.7 -> 62.6
PER 20.9 -> 27.2

Fox year to year:

PPG 23.2 -> 25.0
TS% 54.9 -> 59.9
PER 17.8 -> 21.8

Honestly, I could see the argument for Haliburton over Fox, but I think it's pretty clear that Haliburton's box score leap is really not the same thing as SGA's.

Now, I'm a big +/- guy so that could make up for this, but I don't really see anything that drastic there either.

[Colbinii]

Haliburton - love him but honestly his leap forward seems a bit less than some other guys

Could you elaborate more on why you think his leap has been comparatively less (especially compared to someone like Fox, or even SGA)?

If we compare Haliburton this year compared to what he did in Indiana last year:

PPG 17.5 -> 20.7
APG 9.6 -> 10.4
TS% 62.9 -> 62.4
PER 20.5 -> 23.6

SGA year to year:

PPG 24.5 -> 31.4
TS% 55.7 -> 62.6
PER 20.9 -> 27.2

Fox year to year:

PPG 23.2 -> 25.0
TS% 54.9 -> 59.9
PER 17.8 -> 21.8

Honestly, I could see the argument for Haliburton over Fox, but I think it's pretty clear that Haliburton's box score leap is really not the same thing as SGA's.

Now, I'm a big +/- guy so that could make up for this, but I don't really see anything that drastic there either.

Fox was similar in 2021 as he is this year. Does him having a down year in 2022 make him a most improved player in 2023?

[AEnigma]

Thought it might be helpful to look at the two best all-in-one metrics as a means to clarify the Most Improved picture. I was initially going to only do DARKO, because I think a metric built around projecting aging curves makes by far the most sense for this exercise, but I figured I can also include LEBRON just to provide a more “in a vacuum” alternative.

2022 to 2023 Markannen: +1.6 DPM improvement; +0.81 LEBRON improvement

2022 to 2023 Shai (as I noted on page 1, using his end of year stretch does change the production): +0.7 DPM improvement; +1.26 LEBRON improvement

2022 to 2023 Fox (similarly to Shai, already was playing near this level at the end of last season): +2.5 DPM improvement; 2022 is a major LEBRON down year, so it feels more reasonable to me to use his 2020/21 values and call it a +0.95 LEBRON improvement

2022 to 2023 Brunson (he too was already playing near this level if you look at his performances without Luka): +1.6 DPM improvement; +0.79 LEBRON improvement

2022 to 2023 Haliburton (personally, I dislike awarding this to third year players, and as with most of the other guards, he also had more impressive production at the end of the season): +1.4 DPM improvement; +2.39 LEBRON improvement

2022 to 2023 JJJ: +0.2 DPM improvement; +1.5 LEBRON improvement

2022 to 2023 Claxton: +1.6 DPM improvement; +4.08 LEBRON improvement

I think I stand by Markannen as my #1 (again, much rarer to see that elevation in your sixth year at age 25) and Claxton as my #2. For #3, leaning toward Fox or JJJ (DARKO I think can a bit off with apportionment, and much of Steven Adams’s recent D-DPM spike should probably be attributed more to Jaren).