Djoker wrote:One caveat regarding Kareem's numbers is that he is playing lower minutes (possessions) than Magic. Still, I'd definitely say that his impact looks comparable based on this data. Even the larger regular season samples paint Kareem as a 1b) to Magic. Definitely great at his age to have similar impact to an all time great in his prime.
Do we have larger regular season samples that are parsed out with Magic-ON/Kareem-ON, Magic-ON/Kareem-OFF, Magic-OFF/Kareem-ON, and Magic-OFF/Kareem-OFF possessions? I know Squared has tracked hundreds of Magic Johnson games, so I’m sure this info exists in his raw data, but I imagine fishing out specific lineup info might be a bit time-consuming, so I guess I’m just curious if it’s already been done and I’m just unaware of it. If so, I think Squared probably has tracked enough games Magic and Kareem played with each other that we could get a pretty good sense of how this looks with a bigger sample. I guess it’s a bit complicated by the fact that a lot of the overlapping sample would be from 1987-1989, which is not really a representative timeframe for Kareem. But I think there’s like 30-40 games of regular season data from prior to that, on top of this 1985 playoff data. Still would be a small sample, but would at least expand things out a bit.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
Djoker wrote:One caveat regarding Kareem's numbers is that he is playing lower minutes (possessions) than Magic. Still, I'd definitely say that his impact looks comparable based on this data. Even the larger regular season samples paint Kareem as a 1b) to Magic. Definitely great at his age to have similar impact to an all time great in his prime.
Do we have larger regular season samples that are parsed out with Magic-ON/Kareem-ON, Magic-ON/Kareem-OFF, Magic-OFF/Kareem-ON, and Magic-OFF/Kareem-OFF possessions? I know Squared has tracked hundreds of Magic Johnson games, so I’m sure this info exists in his raw data, but I imagine fishing out specific lineup info might be a bit time-consuming, so I guess I’m just curious if it’s already been done and I’m just unaware of it. If so, I think Squared probably has tracked enough games Magic and Kareem played with each other that we could get a pretty good sense of how this looks with a bigger sample. I guess it’s a bit complicated by the fact that a lot of the overlapping sample would be from 1987-1989, which is not really a representative timeframe for Kareem. But I think there’s like 30-40 games of regular season data from prior to that, on top of this 1985 playoff data. Still would be a small sample, but would at least expand things out a bit.
Djoker posted them for 1985 here:
Djoker wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:I'm about as big of a Magic>Bird guy as it gets, but this delta is probably contributed to by the Lakers platooning while Bird staggers with Mchale.
Would be nice if we could get rotation sheets for bird like we have for Jordan and Magic
I don't have the rotation sheets unfortunately. I did check out 1985 analysis with Magic and Kareem though and it's clear the Kareem is also contributing to the high ON values. When either of the two sits, the team struggles. But I don't necessarily see platooning. Magic plays a decent number of possessions without Kareem (and Worthy) in all of these seasons. On the flip side of the coin, the Lakers did quite well in games Magic was DNP through the 80's.
Could be slightly out of date -- there may be a few more than 41 games now. And there's still not a massive volume of Magic-only or Kareem-only possessions. But it does continue to tell a story where the Magic-only and Kareem-only minutes are pretty similar in offensive net rating.
Unlike the playoffs, Kareem doesn't look better defensively (again noting the small samples and importance of other lineups/opponents), so now they have a similar overall net rating when just one of them is on the court. Slightly negative rather than slightly to somewhat positive.
Like the playoffs, when both are off, there's again a big drop. Unlike the playoffs, it's a bit on offense and a bit on defense -- closer to what we'd expect as the trend, which is also as we'd expect since our sample sizes are starting to get larger.
Agreed, by 1987 - 1989, Kareem's starting to get much less individually impactful after a small resurgence 1985. Would be interesting to see the splits of Magic, Kareem, and Worthy, either over all these years (85-89 / 90 / 91), or in the years we haven't seen (87-89). Worthy looks fairly pedestrian in the RAPM data we have, but the Lakers seemed to have a ton of platooning of lineups ( playing the starters together and the bench together) so it could just be that the lineups with Worthy apart from Magic/Kareem were small and a bit unlucky in sample size.
Djoker wrote:One caveat regarding Kareem's numbers is that he is playing lower minutes (possessions) than Magic. Still, I'd definitely say that his impact looks comparable based on this data. Even the larger regular season samples paint Kareem as a 1b) to Magic. Definitely great at his age to have similar impact to an all time great in his prime.
Do we have larger regular season samples that are parsed out with Magic-ON/Kareem-ON, Magic-ON/Kareem-OFF, Magic-OFF/Kareem-ON, and Magic-OFF/Kareem-OFF possessions? I know Squared has tracked hundreds of Magic Johnson games, so I’m sure this info exists in his raw data, but I imagine fishing out specific lineup info might be a bit time-consuming, so I guess I’m just curious if it’s already been done and I’m just unaware of it. If so, I think Squared probably has tracked enough games Magic and Kareem played with each other that we could get a pretty good sense of how this looks with a bigger sample. I guess it’s a bit complicated by the fact that a lot of the overlapping sample would be from 1987-1989, which is not really a representative timeframe for Kareem. But I think there’s like 30-40 games of regular season data from prior to that, on top of this 1985 playoff data. Still would be a small sample, but would at least expand things out a bit.
From 1987 onwards, the Magic ON Kareem OFF lineups are doing much better than Magic OFF Kareem ON lineups. And you'd kind of expect that with Kareem beginning to really decline and Magic getting even better.
Here are all the regular numbers we have for Kareem:
I think he looks really good considering a lot of the games are from his "steep decline" years which are 1988 and 1989.
I can certainly post more Squared stuff if y'all have any requests!
Add me on Twitter/X - Djoker @Danko8c. I post a lot of stats.
Magic in 1982 had a +40.3 ON-OFF rNRtg Lebron in 2016 had +37.5 ON-OFF rNRtg Duncan in 2003 had +36.5 ON-OFF rNRtg Jordan in 1986 had a +22.0 ON-OFF rNRtg Jordan in 1991 had a +11.7 ON-OFF rNRtg
Bird in 1986 looks to looking really good
You had others who weren’t considered the impact engines:
Just taking the numbers you gave and looking at the defenses and offenses the Lakers played to get the rORtg, rDRtg, rNRtg (i.e., rORtg - rDRtg), and then the ON-OFF versions. I just noticed I'l have to edit some numbers. The on-offs aren't correct
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.
lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
Magic ON: 114.5 ORtg, 103.1 DRtg, +11.4 Net Magic OFF: 99.0 ORtg, 121.0 DRtg, -22.0 Net Magic ON-OFF: +15.5 ORtg, -17.9 DRtg, +33.4 Net
Very interesting stuff! Do we have Kareem’s numbers for that playoff run? And, if so, do we also have it parsed out by Kareem-ON/Magic-ON, Kareem-ON/Magic-OFF, Kareem-OFF/Magic-ON, and Kareem-OFF/Magic-OFF? Magic’s on-off numbers look pretty consistently amazing, and I’m interested in getting a sense of the extent to which that’s a result of overlapping a really high percent of his minutes with Kareem and/or who seems like they’re driving the incredible results the most. 1982 would be an interesting year to see that data, since it’s actually not really old Kareem (though it was the first year of his long glide-path decline IMO). Of course, the data from any single playoff run is a small sample, so I’m not suggesting any such data could lead us to any concrete conclusion, but am still interested!
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
I was looking for a game six of the 1986 finals, but I couldn't find—has it been taken down?
I did watch this a few years back and charted it, but I can't find my notes. Larry Bird played basically the whole game and sat out the last minute and a half or so and I'm 95% certain that he was either +17 on court (Celtics +0 off) or +19 (Celtics -2 off).
That would leave only the Hawks' series before we had complete Larry Bird on/off numbers for the 1986 plaits, correct?
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.
lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
Here are the Magic - Kareem lineups for 1980-1982. Note that the 1980 postseason excludes the WCSF vs. Phoenix.
1980 Postseason (11 games)
Magic ON Kareem ON: 111.0 ORtg, 99.5 DRtg, +11.6 Net (347.4 minutes) Magic ON Kareem OFF: 100.0 ORtg, 100.4 DRtg, -0.4 Net (106.6 minutes) Note: Roughly -19 Net without Game 6 vs. Philadephia. Magic OFF Kareem ON: 93.9 ORtg, 111.2 DRtg, -17.3 Net (68.6 minutes) Magic OFF Kareem OFF: 78.3 ORtg, 113.1 DRtg, -34.8 Net (5.4 minutes)
1981 Postseason (3 games)
Magic ON Kareem ON: 105.3 ORtg, 99.9 DRtg, +5.5 Net (117.3 minutes) Magic ON Kareem OFF: 71.1 ORtg, 111.7 DRtg, -40.6 Net (9.7 minutes) Magic OFF Kareem ON: 115.0 ORtg, 129.7 DRtg, -14.7 Net (16.7 minutes) Magic OFF Kareem OFF: 0.0 ORtg, 328.2 DRtg, -328.2 Net (0.3 minutes)
1982 Postseason (14 games)
Magic ON Kareem ON: 119.0 ORtg, 106.0 DRtg, +13.0 Net (466.7 minutes) Magic ON Kareem OFF: 102.0 ORtg, 95.3 DRtg, +6.7 Net (138.3 minutes) Magic OFF Kareem ON: 98.8 ORtg, 123.9 DRtg, -25.1 Net (61.3 minutes) Magic OFF Kareem OFF: 102.2 ORtg, 125.6 DRtg, -23.4 Net (53.7 minutes)
Magic ON Kareem ON: 114.4 ORtg, 102.8 DRtg, +12.5 Net (931.5 minutes) Magic ON Kareem OFF: 100.4 ORtg, 98.4 DRtg, +2.0 Net (254.5 minutes) Magic OFF Kareem ON: 98.1 ORtg, 118.4 DRtg -20.3 Net (146.5 minutes) Magic OFF Kareem OFF: 100.7 ORtg, 126.9 DRtg, -26.2 Net (59.5 minutes)
My Interpretation
The obvious straightforward conclusion here is that Magic is more impactful than Kareem over the whole 3-year span. But still with Magic and without Kareem, the Lakers didn't play like contenders. In 1980 and 1981, it was Kareem's team and in 1982, it was Magic's team. And the ON-OFF data largely supports that.
However, a few words of caution here.
1) The sample isn't very big. 28 playoff games typically leaves a very small number of minutes when stars are off the court and even smaller looking at specific lineup combinations. When I finish tracking the 1983 postseason, I'll add it to the sample. That will make 43 games which is more stable no doubt.
2) Following on from point #1, garbage time can have a rather huge effect. For instance, watching the 1982 playoffs, I got the impression that the Magic OFF Kareem OFF lineups did fairly well. But their Net Rating overall is -25.1... What gives? Well there are three blowouts (two wins and one loss) where Magic OFF Kareem OFF lineups feature a lot of second and third string players... not the expected rotation guys. Lineups like the "underrated five" of Nixon/Cooper/Wilkes/Rambis/McAdoo did really well but their success is diluted by what the likes of Brewer, Dwight Jones and the benchwarmer squad did (or didn't do actually...) in garbage time. Note also the uneven distribution. Most of the Magic OFF Kareem OFF data is from the 1982 playoffs. Under coach Westhead, Magic and Kareem were almost always staggered unless it was garbage time but Riley would experiment with the aforementioned underrated five in particular and they did good work at key points during games.
3) In terms of sharing minutes, Magic played 78.5% of his postseason minutes (81.8% without Game 6 vs. Philly in 1980) alongside Kareem and Kareem played 86.4% of his postseason minutes alongside Magic. Those are definitely high numbers among historical duos and part of the reason why their ON numbers look so good. But it's also why the Lakers were so successful. With both of them on the court, they were devastating.
4) The WOWY data tells that the Magic-less Lakers were likely quite solid. Obviously not contender level but comfortable playoff team. In a sizable sample of 54 games without Magic from 1980-1982, the Lakers went 34-20 with a +1.5 MOV which works out to about 45 Pythagorean Wins.
Add me on Twitter/X - Djoker @Danko8c. I post a lot of stats.
I was looking for a game six of the 1986 finals, but I couldn't find—has it been taken down?
I did watch this a few years back and charted it, but I can't find my notes. Larry Bird played basically the whole game and sat out the last minute and a half or so and I'm 95% certain that he was either +17 on court (Celtics +0 off) or +19 (Celtics -2 off).
That would leave only the Hawks' series before we had complete Larry Bird on/off numbers for the 1986 plaits, correct?
I have Game 6... If anyone wants to DM me, I'll be happy to share the game.
Djoker wrote:Here are the Magic - Kareem lineups for 1980-1982. Note that the 1980 postseason excludes the WCSF vs. Phoenix.
1980 Postseason (11 games)
Magic ON Kareem ON: 111.0 ORtg, 99.5 DRtg, +11.6 Net (347.4 minutes) Magic ON Kareem OFF: 100.0 ORtg, 100.4 DRtg, -0.4 Net (106.6 minutes) Note: Roughly -19 Net without Game 6 vs. Philadephia. Magic OFF Kareem ON: 93.9 ORtg, 111.2 DRtg, -17.3 Net (68.6 minutes) Magic OFF Kareem OFF: 78.3 ORtg, 113.1 DRtg, -34.8 Net (5.4 minutes)
1981 Postseason (3 games)
Magic ON Kareem ON: 105.3 ORtg, 99.9 DRtg, +5.5 Net (117.3 minutes) Magic ON Kareem OFF: 71.1 ORtg, 111.7 DRtg, -40.6 Net (9.7 minutes) Magic OFF Kareem ON: 115.0 ORtg, 129.7 DRtg, -14.7 Net (16.7 minutes) Magic OFF Kareem OFF: 0.0 ORtg, 328.2 DRtg, -328.2 Net (0.3 minutes)
1982 Postseason (14 games)
Magic ON Kareem ON: 119.0 ORtg, 106.0 DRtg, +13.0 Net (466.7 minutes) Magic ON Kareem OFF: 102.0 ORtg, 95.3 DRtg, +6.7 Net (138.3 minutes) Magic OFF Kareem ON: 98.8 ORtg, 123.9 DRtg, -25.1 Net (61.3 minutes) Magic OFF Kareem OFF: 102.2 ORtg, 125.6 DRtg, -23.4 Net (53.7 minutes)
Magic ON Kareem ON: 114.4 ORtg, 102.8 DRtg, +12.5 Net (931.5 minutes) Magic ON Kareem OFF: 100.4 ORtg, 98.4 DRtg, +2.0 Net (254.5 minutes) Magic OFF Kareem ON: 98.1 ORtg, 118.4 DRtg -20.3 Net (146.5 minutes) Magic OFF Kareem OFF: 100.7 ORtg, 126.9 DRtg, -26.2 Net (59.5 minutes)
My Interpretation
The obvious straightforward conclusion here is that Magic is more impactful than Kareem over the whole 3-year span. But still with Magic and without Kareem, the Lakers didn't play like contenders. In 1980 and 1981, it was Kareem's team and in 1982, it was Magic's team. And the ON-OFF data largely supports that.
However, a few words of caution here.
1) The sample isn't very big. 28 playoff games typically leaves a very small number of minutes when stars are off the court and even smaller looking at specific lineup combinations. When I finish tracking the 1983 postseason, I'll add it to the sample. That will make 43 games which is more stable no doubt.
2) Following on from point #1, garbage time can have a rather huge effect. For instance, watching the 1982 playoffs, I got the impression that the Magic OFF Kareem OFF lineups did fairly well. But their Net Rating overall is -25.1... What gives? Well there are three blowouts (two wins and one loss) where Magic OFF Kareem OFF lineups feature a lot of second and third string players... not the expected rotation guys. Lineups like the "underrated five" of Nixon/Cooper/Wilkes/Rambis/McAdoo did really well but their success is diluted by what the likes of Brewer, Dwight Jones and the benchwarmer squad did (or didn't do actually...) in garbage time. Note also the uneven distribution. Most of the Magic OFF Kareem OFF data is from the 1982 playoffs. Under coach Westhead, Magic and Kareem were almost always staggered unless it was garbage time but Riley would experiment with the aforementioned underrated five in particular and they did good work at key points during games.
3) In terms of sharing minutes, Magic played 78.5% of his postseason minutes (81.8% without Game 6 vs. Philly in 1980) alongside Kareem and Kareem played 86.4% of his postseason minutes alongside Magic. Those are definitely high numbers among historical duos and part of the reason why their ON numbers look so good. But it's also why the Lakers were so successful. With both of them on the court, they were devastating.
4) The WOWY data tells that the Magic-less Lakers were likely quite solid. Obviously not contender level but comfortable playoff team. In a sizable sample of 54 games without Magic from 1980-1982, the Lakers went 34-20 with a +1.5 MOV which works out to about 45 Pythagorean Wins.
Thanks for this! Do you have any sense of why the Magic-OFF/Kareem-ON minutes were so bad? It kind of looks like it’s just random to me (not surprising, of course, in very small samples), particularly because the difference between Magic-ON/Kareem-OFF and Magic-OFF/Kareem-ON is almost entirely the latter having worse results defensively, which definitely doesn’t seem like it’s very likely to be caused by Magic being a better defensive player than Kareem.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
I was looking for a game six of the 1986 finals, but I couldn't find—has it been taken down?
I did watch this a few years back and charted it, but I can't find my notes. Larry Bird played basically the whole game and sat out the last minute and a half or so and I'm 95% certain that he was either +17 on court (Celtics +0 off) or +19 (Celtics -2 off).
That would leave only the Hawks' series before we had complete Larry Bird on/off numbers for the 1986 plaits, correct?
I have Game 6... If anyone wants to DM me, I'll be happy to share the game.
homecourtloss wrote: I was looking for a game six of the 1986 finals, but I couldn't find—has it been taken down?
I did watch this a few years back and charted it, but I can't find my notes. Larry Bird played basically the whole game and sat out the last minute and a half or so and I'm 95% certain that he was either +17 on court (Celtics +0 off) or +19 (Celtics -2 off).
That would leave only the Hawks' series before we had complete Larry Bird on/off numbers for the 1986 plaits, correct?
I have Game 6... If anyone wants to DM me, I'll be happy to share the game.
lessthanjake wrote:Thanks for this! Do you have any sense of why the Magic-OFF/Kareem-ON minutes were so bad? It kind of looks like it’s just random to me (not surprising, of course, in very small samples), particularly because the difference between Magic-ON/Kareem-OFF and Magic-OFF/Kareem-ON is almost entirely the latter having worse results defensively, which definitely doesn’t seem like it’s very likely to be caused by Magic being a better defensive player than Kareem.
To be honest, your explanation is as good as any. But as I explained in the post above, I think the Magic ON Kareem OFF also isn't great outside of Game 6 of the 1980 Finals. I think the Lakers get a whole lot worse when either Magic or Kareem sit. The WOWY data supports that too. However, from playing more minutes and this data, I think it's hard to say Magic isn't more impactful than Kareem in 1982.
As the sample increases, we'll see what emerges. 1983 will be an interesting year to add to the sample because it's still pretty much the same core of guys. Nixon, Wilkes, Cooper, Rambis, Landsberger, Chones/McAdoo etc. From 1984, Worthy and Scott take on a bigger role while Nixon is gone and Wilkes begins to fade away. The team begins to change quite a bit.
Add me on Twitter/X - Djoker @Danko8c. I post a lot of stats.
We only need the ECSF vs. Hawks tracked at this point to complete 1986 Bird! I would appreciate if someone else volunteers to track that series. I'm busy with the Showtime Lakers and I don't want to stop! I can share the game footage if it's not on YT already.
1986 ECR1 vs. Bulls
Bird ON: 126.2 ORtg, 106.0 DRtg, +20.3 Net Bird OFF: 84.7 ORtg, 125.7 DRtg, -41.0 Net Bird ON-OFF: +41.5 ORtg, -19.7 DRtg, +61.2 Net
1986 ECF vs. Bucks
Bird ON: 116.3 ORtg, 101.2 DRtg, +15.1 Net Bird OFF: 120.6 ORtg, 107.0 DRtg, +13.6 Net Bird ON-OFF: -4.3 ORtg, -5.8 DRtg, +1.5 Net
1986 Finals vs. Rockets
Bird ON: 112.9 ORtg, 103.0 DRtg, +10.0 Net Bird OFF: 96.7 ORtg, 141.1 DRtg, -44.4 Net Bird ON-OFF: +16.2 ORtg, -38.1 DRtg, +54.3 Net
Add me on Twitter/X - Djoker @Danko8c. I post a lot of stats.
I went and tracked the game to get the plus minus for some of the other stars. Note: I actually get a different plus minus for Bird than homecourtloss. I think they accidentally counted free throws for Bird's off rating rather than Bird's on rating as Bird was being subbed out. Bird's total should be +24 On, -7 Off.
Plus Minus breakdown: Bird #33 46 mins, Hakeem #34 37. McHale #32 38, Walton #5 17 (Bird out 2 minutes; Hakeem 11; McHale 10; Walton 31)
1st quarter. 11:15. 0-0. Start 26:50. 15-22 Celtics. Walton in (for Parish) 36:15. 23-29 Celtics. End of Quarter
2nd 37:00. 23-29 Celtics. McHale out (for Parish) 39:09. 26-31 Celtics. McHale back, Walton off. 50:40. 32-47 Celtics. Hakeem out. 50:20. 36-49 Celtics. Walton in (for Parish). 1:03:04. 38-55 Celtics. End of quarter.
3rd. 1:12:10. 38-55 Celtics. Start of quarter. Hakeem back. Walton out (for Parish). 1:26:30. 51-73 Celtics. Walton in (for Parish). Hakeem out. 1:36:30. 59-82 Celtics. McHale out (Parish in) 1:37:10. 61-82 Celtics. End of quarter
4th 1:38:10. 61-82 Celtics. Hakeem back. 1:49:10. 73-97 Celtics. Walton off. McHale on. 1:55:45. 84-108 Celtics. Bird off, McHale off, Hakeem off. Garbage time. (The main starters are subbed out here. The clock stops due to a foul, the starters get subbed out, and the Celtics make two free throws after the break. These free throws should count for the starters ON rating, since the foul occurred while they were on the court. The free throws should not be counted to their OFF rating.) 2:03:03. 97-114 Celtics. Final score, end of game.
Game Summary: For the final game, I thought it would be fun to do a more detailed film breakdown. I'll give a full breakdown of almost all the plays that stood out to me, focusing on the main stars.
Bird: I think Bird comes across as the clear best player on the court. His defense looks great, with a lot of active help defense, which helped disrupt player's dribbles, force them into misses that led to Celtics rebounds, and generate turnovers. Bird had a ton of defense to offense plays, being active on ending the opponent possession on one end, then shooting a quick ~half-court / throw-ahead pass to start the fast break, which led to good offense at the opposing rim (I counted 10 of these defense-to-fast-break plays in this game alone). Bird also showed a lot of positive rebounding value in this game. In terms of weaknesses, Bird's lack of vertical burst does show up occasionally in his contests -- he has nice motor and effort and size at the three, but some of his shot contest and help at the rim aren't as vertical as we would want. Bird's reputed lack of horizontal foot speed shows up occasionally, but didn't show up often or seem very limiting in this game -- consistent with him still having much of his athleticism, unlike a couple years later.
On the offensive end, Bird's passing is on full display. The Celtics ran Bird and one of the bigs off-ball a lot, and would use Bird's motion and off-ball back screens to either (a) get his big deeper position, or (b) if the defense stuck with his big, Bird would use the off-ball distraction to escape his man. Then Bird would run off-ball to the perimeter to catch it; from here Bird could make a quick entry pass to set up his big who had position, take the shot if he was open, or pump fake and drive if his man recovered. This led to a lot of good offense for the Celtics, and was one of the key plays used to set up their bigs, and it centered on both Bird's off-ball skill and his passing. Off-ball creation at its finest in the 80s -- it's not always flashy, but it's ever-present, and can add up in value over time. Most impressively -- Bird had 12 layup passes in this game in my tracking. He has the reputation for being the GOAT layup passer (which are possibly the most valuable pass in the game), and it was readily apparent here. I'm not sure I've seen more layup passes in a game, though I haven't tracked it closely. For anyone who thinks Bird isn't an all-time/GOAT-level passer, I'd encourage you to watch some of the plays I highlight below. Bird's all-time shooting, strong pump faking game, and chemistry with his bigs were also on display.
This is one of Bird's greater games in these playoffs, and it's a sample of just one game, so I wouldn't over-index on it too much. But at the same time, what a game! We can talk about the disappointing defense (in available plus minus data and in some people's film analysis) that occurs as Bird gets older in 87 and 88. But in 1986, on film and in the available data, Bird definitely seems to be having a top 10 level peak.
Hakeem: he had a more mixed game. There were definitely stretches where that all-time defensive impact was clear as day. There's one three-possession stretch towards the start of the game, where Hakeem demonstrated some of the best hands for a big I've ever seen, generating three steals and fast break points in a row (this stretch was key to why the Celtics didn't blow the top off even more in the 1st quarter). He displayed good help defense and rim deterrence, though not as active as he did earlier in the series or later in his prime. His defensive activity slowed for a stretch towards the end of the game as the game slipped away from the Rockets.
Offensively, Hakeem of course had some some flashy and fun scoring moves, slipping by McHale or Parish to make space for a layup or fadeaway. Still, Hakeem had far from his best offensive game. The Celtics adjusted when and where they doubled Hakeem from this game, as the announcers mentioned early-on. These doubles (often from Bird) made it harder for the Rockets to get easy entry-passes to Hakeem, and when Hakeem had the ball, they forced him into harder shots spinning baseline. These defensive plays generated turnovers and misses due to Hakeem's limitations getting open off-ball and his passing limitations -- but unlike earlier in this series, where the Rockets made up for this by using Hakeem's scoring gravity to generate offensive rebounding opportunities, here the defensive adjustment allowed the Celtics to control the boards more as well.
I don't mean to be too critical on Hakeem -- he had one of the best sophomore years ever, and again it's just one game here. But given recent trends in this board's opinion (getting progressively lower on Bird, voting Hakeem > Bird in the latest 1986 POY vote), I think it's worth diving into why Bird was clearly the better player in the 1986 finals.
Detailed film notes:
Spoiler:
12:10. Bird active off ball getting postup position. Hakeem rim contest causes miss, but Celtics crash glass and get tip in
*12:20. Bird good defense, makes postup pass to Hakeem hard and gets the steal, which starts the fast break. This can be a weakness of a telegraphed postup pass.
12:40. Bird roaming defense against Hakeem. Doubles and forces the spin baseline for the harder shot, but Hakeem gets foul against Parish. Young Hakeem’s passing limitations on display, not making the pass to the open 3. Parish has had trouble this series against Hakeem.
13:45. Bird turnaround midrange switch.
14:10. Celtics got steal in transition. Bird post entry pass to Parish. Parish pump fake gets Hakeem in the air, for the foul.
15:00. Hakeem screen completely stalls DJ, and they get an open midrange
15:10. Hakeem rim defense but DJ gets the layup
*15:25. Great defense by Bird against the Sampson mismatch and McHale against the guard. Together force the turnover.
*15:50. Bird solid pass to open midrange, then active off ball getting in offensive rebounding position, then gets the 2.
16:05. When Hakeem does pass the ball out of the double, it can lead to good offense. Bird doubles, Hakeem quick pass (it helps the ope man is visible), who passes to the midrange jumper.
17:10. Part of the offensive team building/scalability issues of a two towers offense. Sampson wants to faceup/postup, Hakeem wants to post up, and the Hakeem post up ends up blocking the lane which forces Sampson to take the further shot. Miss, and Bird defensive rebound, then quick pass to start the fast break, and it’s two points. 2nd time a Bird quick pass starts a fast break and gets two. Also, as commentator will note after commercial break, Bird has been put more on weak side as a rebounder / box outer this game, and it’s helping with the rebounding struggles the Celtics had earlier in the series.
*19:00. Rockets spend almost 20 seconds trying to get the ball to Hakeem (one of the weaknesses of an offense centered around a post up player who isn’t as active off ball). Perfectly timed double for Bird, and the steal, and that’s at least the 3rd fast break generated with Bird’s defense.
20:20. Parish screens Bird (haha) then Hakeem screens Bird, which helps Rockets get a drive to the basket
21:00. Bird off-ball screen for Parish, off-ball movement to get the ball, then quick solid entry pass (2nd of game). Hakeem good man defense against Parish for the miss.
21:20. Bird free safety. Double on Hakeem, double on Sampson, then recovers back to his man to contest the shot. Later, Hakeem another turnover on an attempted post up.
21:35. Bird runs to start the fast break, hoping a teammate will get the rebound. They don’t, and he’s slow to get back. Rockets don’t make use of the 5 on 4 advantage
21:50. Bird quick pass helps Parish get the layup. 1st great layup pass of the game.
*22:30. Hakeem turnover pass, and Bird with the great positioning for the steal, for the fourth time Bird’s defense has generated a fast break and points.
24:15. Hakeem’s threat at rim stresses defense and gets the free throws.
25:15. Bird quick layup/entry pass. It’s the 2nd Bird layup pass of the game, 3rd entry pass of the game. Bird seems to run this play a lot, moving off-ball with one of his bigs, then using either a distraction or off-ball screen to get one of them open/good position on the weak side. Then Bird comes out to the midrange, gets a pass, and makes a quick decision — either a shot, move, or quick pass to the postup player. Some of these passes blur the boundary between layup pass vs just a quick good-shot-to-better-shot entry pass — here it’s a bit of both. Regardless, McHale gets the step with Bird’s great pass placement. Hakeem helps but McHale makes it.
25:35. Bird rebounds Hakeem miss, and beautiful half court pass to start transition, but they can’t handle the dribble. Turnover
*28:00. Good defensive play by Hakeem. Rim intimidation prevents shot, then makes the pass a bit harder for his man, then packs paint to help with rebound.
29:00. Bird helps dissuade the post up pass to Sampson, then doubles off-ball to prevent pass again. Hakeem picked up his dribble high up, and throws it away.
*29:55. Same post up passing limitation, now for Celtics. Fantastic quickness from Hakeem to steal the pass to Walton and get the dunk. Next play Hakeem pokes it away from Walton and again is quick in transition to get the transition dunk. Next possession, Bird tries another layup/postup pass to Walton. Hakeem gambles for steal and gets it. Generates defense to offense from Hakeem, three possessions in a row. This is the game of telegraphed postups and turnovers. Best defensive stretch for Hakeem in this game, and it’s fantastic.
31:40. Off-ball movement, then quick pass from Bird to a post up player for the dunk. He’s had one turnover on these plays, but it’s the ~4th entry pass (3rd that’s only an entry pass and not a layup pass). Walton gets deep position, gets deeper, makes the layup/dunk at the rim (this is another play like the one above that could be counted as a layup pass, and would be his 3rd of game, but let’s call it an entry pass). The entry passes aren’t super flashy, but these kind of quick, move the ball, pass to player in better position plays can be quite valuable as they add up.
33:17. Bird and Celtics’s roaming defense confounds the offense. Help forces the pass, then on-time rotation back, then pass misses Hakeem and it’s a turnover.
*33:30. Bird off-ball. Runs an off-ball screen in the short midrange, then runs out to the 3 point line. He’s done this ~3 times so far, and the play has usually been to help set up a teammate near the basket, run out then throw a quick pass to the teammate for a layup. Here he counters, running back in to get an inside seal himself. He gets the pass and it’s a layup. Walton spacing helps pull out Hakeem, although Hakeem’s slower court mapping means he doesn’t see the pay until it’s too late.
*33:47. Bird help defense in the paint, forces the jump ball. Then wins the jump ball over Hakeem. Wow!
*34:45. Bird pump fake sends defender flying. Great quick help rotation by Hakeem for the block, and Walton’s there for the putback. Although somehow it’s a foul on Bird, and free throws for him.
2nd 38:25. Bird illegal defense call. Then Hakeem active against Walton for the rim attack. Bird with rim help defense. Hakeem draws foul from Walton.
40:10. Bird defensive rebound in traffic and starts the fast break. They get a layup and miss. ~5th fast break started with a Bird defensive play then a quick pass.
40:30. Nice move by Hakeem. Snakes by the McHale for the short fadeaway to generate space over Parish.
*40:45. Great Layup pass by Bird. Dennis Johnson misses the open shot but it’s a foul. *42:30. Another great layup pass by Bird. Great vision, speed, and placement.
*43:12. Hakeem rim protection. Bites on the Parish bump fake, but avoids the foul, and it’s tough to force a miss. Fights both Parish and McHale for the rebound. McHale gets it and puts it up, with another Hakeem rim contest. Miss and its Rocket’s ball on the fast break.
42:32. Bird contests and it’s a miss.
*43:58. HAHA
44:32. Bird bumps the rebound out of the Rockets hand. Gets it and starts the fast break. 6th time. Makes the layup.
46:00. Bird contests at rim. Gets rebound
*46:12. Bird off ball movement to get open, then the pump fake. One can see from the angle of their head that the off-ball movement and fake distracts McHale’s defender which makes them unaware of the back screen — the subtle value of off ball movement. Having to track Man, Ball, and Off-ball threat is 50% more things to track than just Man and Ball; at NBA game speed, the tiniest lapses in attention lead to more defensive mistakes, and off-ball threats can do this constantly throughout the possession. After the distraction, there’s a fantastic layup pass through traffic by Bird. ~5th layup pass by Bird of the game.
46:30. Rockets punish Bird’s roaming, running an action away from the Hakeem double. DJ’s defending both, but the Rockets space out then punish DJ for not being in two places at once.
46:50. Off-ball Bird generates open midrange for himself with teammate screen. Miss, but they rebound and score
48:50. Here we again see the how doubling Hakeem stresses the rebounding. We have two guarding Hakeem, who is forced to do the baseline fadeaway — a tough shot that misses. But it does leave a man open to get the rebound. In this case, McHale can’t quite box everyone out.
46:45 Goaltending Hakeem on rim help defense
50:04. Blow by Bird who’s recovering and off-balance (perhaps a lack of his horizontal speed starting to show). But nice McHale block/steal. Hakeem gets third foul.
51:40. Commentators mention Sampson seems to come alive when he’s playing the sole big, although here he’s stripped.
51:30. Bird layup / Pocket pass to Parish who’s in position for the dunk but he wasn’t ready for it and travels.
53:15. Bird offensive rebound, then Layup pass to McHale falling out of bounds, ~7th so far, maybe.
56:05. Bird McHale side pick and roll. Bird doubled and great pass around his defenders. Wiggins tries to steal and does knock it out, but it’s a foul. McHale free throws.
…
58:10. Bird double on sampson helps challenge shot, and it’s a miss.
1:00:27. The Rockets offensive players space out more without the twin tower set up. I’ve seen this a few plays in a row. This gives Sampson more room to operate. Part of the problem is that the Celtics still sag into the lane and are willing to double post up players
*1:12:10. Two man game with Hakeem and McCrae. Less common for the Rockets’ style of offense, but still interesting to see. Screen is fairly telegraphed, and neither are too active off ball. Moreso just waiting to get back in scoring position. Soft double of Hakeem. Slow pass gives Bird time to get back to his man, although a better teammate for Hakeem would be a better spacer who would shift further from Hakeem to punish the double. Perhaps those are more modern sensibilities. I do like how Hakeem takes up space as an offensive rebounder.
1:12:40. Bird gets free off ball with teammates screen but misses
*1:13:33. Bird gets free off ball, then layup pass. 8th. Free throws.
1:14:20. Less telegraphed screen from Hakeem helps teammate get free. I like how Hakeem’s active here trying to get closer position, although a shove from Parish erases the progress he had made. Bird doubles, which forces Hakeem to turn baseline and helps Parish block. Bird rebound, and it’s another quick pass to start the fast break. ~7th time Bird’s initiated a defense to offense fast break. 2 points.
1:15:16. Bird sneaks open off ball, but misses. He’s been a bit cold this third quarter.
1:15:22. Here we see Bird’s lack of vertical rim protection, which he partially makes up for with his good rebounding.
1:17:05. Good contest by Hakeem. Bird drew his ‘fifth’ (should be fourth?) foul in the preceding play, so he might be a bit limited. I like how he’s active getting up in transition on the inbound.
1:18:10. Nice Sampson layup pass, with the mid-air audible out of the shot. Rockets free throws.
1:19:36. Bird starts to double Sampson, miss, and rebound, then yet another half court pass to start the fast break. ~8th defense to offense fast break from Bird.
1:12:00. Bird steal and it’s another fast break (9th time), although Rockets foul in transition.
1:20:32. Hakeem seals wth inner position. Tough pass, but this time they make it. Bird doubles, Celtics defense collapses, and Hakeem with the nice move sneaking through for FTs
1:21:30. Bird with another quick layup/postup entry pass (9th layup pass so far).
1:23:03. Hakeem fantastic quickness and quick leaping for the rim help. Tough shot get made anyway, but it’s beautiful defense
*1:23:22. Hakeem shoots into the triple team, in the middle of the floor with two teammates open. These are the limitations in Hakeem’s decision making that really might limit his younger impact. Thinking Basketball’s tracking has him shooting <40% when doubled, which is pretty good scoring adjusting for coverage, but pretty sub-optimal offense when there’s a pass available. Miss. Maybe the positive is that there’s passive / latent scoring gravity that helps their rebounding? Which there’s some evidence of in the series (and in this possession), although less the Celtics’ adjustment seems to be helping with rebounding. For this possession, the paint is packed enough that the Rockets’ offensive rebound doesn’t lead to a good shot. I’d rather Hakeem pass to one of the open men when tripled.
1:24:10. Active defense by Hakeem. He’s a little jumpier when he was younger compared to his more experienced older defense. Jumps too early for the rebound (nice length almost gets it anyway), then goes flying on the Parish pump fake (near foul), then goes flying again on the Parish pump fake (near foul), but thankfully there’s no foul and he did help force the miss.
1:24:54. Bird off-ball screen then leaks out to the perimeter for a sliver of daylight and a made three (with toe on the line, so really it’s a really long midrange two).
1:25:08. Hakeem splits two defenders and scores over Bird. When you’re able to get more central position and close to the basket before the shot (so not a fallaway baseline shot or a longer midrange shot), shooting into the triple is a bit more acceptable. By-eye, young Hakeem’s more efficient shooting into doubles/triples when he’s able to go more central eg through splitting the defense. Of course, one of the benefits of the double is that it forces him to go for a baseline fadeaway that’s harder to make. Neat move, and the score (Would still rather he pass most of the time he’s tripled though)
1:25:30. Another quick postup pass from Bird, although this time Parish fades outward rather than going to the rim.
*1:25:40. Hakeem shoots into double / soft triple when the layup pass is right in front of him. This shows the passing limitations I’ve been discussing. Blocked, but he gets it back. Gestures for the iso, then it’s a tough fadeaway .
1:28:15. Bird pick and roll and great layup pass off the soft double to McHale (10th layup pass so far)
1:35:20. Two on two defending fast break, Bird prevents layup (a better rim protector would be more vertical, but it’s still reasonably good size and good positioning) and quick second jump for the rebound. It’s possible the swipe at the ball helps the second miss though hard to tell
1:35:30. Bird slow postup iso to slow the clock down while they’re ahead. Then quick turnaround and free throws.
1:38:20. Hakeem active trying to steal the ball. I like this choice (way behind in 4th quarter, nab finals elimination game — need to start a run and less risk). Bird great layup pass (~11th so far, ~7th great one). Walton 2 as its goal tending.
*1:39:47. Bird fantastic cut to get open for a layup. The delivery is a touch too slow and low and the opportunity is gone, but Bird instead cuts to the corner for the turnaround three and it’s good. Bird’s an all-time level shooter, and the move seems a bit reminiscent of Curry’s famous relocation threes in game 7 against the 2018 Rockets.
1:42:22. Bird nice off-ball cut to get open but bobbles the dribble. Nice pump fake to send the defender flying, then pass to Walton, and good to great layup pass by Walton to Parish for the dunk. Great ball movement. Hakeem rim contest and foul
1:44:39. Hakeem’s been inactive on offense a few possessions in a row. Perhaps fatigue or a loss of hope.
1:46:10. Some nice Walton Bird chemistry. Pass to Walton when Bird picks up the dribble, then nice pass back, with Bird getting around his man off ball. Hakeem doubles Bird, but it’s a crazy 180 turnaround bank shot. Hakeem isin’t contesting much with his hands.
1:46:20. Bird starts the fast break again with a half court pass (~10th fast break started with Bird)
1:47:12. First offensive play run for Hakeem in a while. They give him the midrage shot, which he takes and makes.
1:47:40. Better Hakeem defense this possession. Shows a bit up on the pick and roll, both to front the pass to the big man and to be there if his teammate needs help. Then great hands from behind to knock the ball from Parish, and he starts the fast break himself.
1:48:05. Off ball motion from Bird gets him an open long midrange with foot on the line. His great off-ball motion is pretty apparent, though today that would be a foot back.
1:49:57. Nice man defense from Hakeem, and nice post move from McHale. Hakeem does a better job staying down on the fakes and contesting into a miss, but Celtics get the rebound and slow it dow.
1:52:45. Layup pass from Bird (~12th so far, ~8th great one)
1:53:40. Nice block by Parish on Hakeem. By this moment, the teams are pretty clearly feeling like the game is over. Effort is coming in spurts, but it’s not consistent. More uncontested midrange shots thrown up. But there are still some plays where the effort comes back. Pretty soon after, the benches comes in.
A Selection of More Interesting Plays: *12:20. Bird good defense, makes postup pass to Hakeem hard and gets the steal, which starts the fast break. This can be a weakness of a telegraphed postup pass.
*15:25. Great defense by Bird against the Sampson mismatch and McHale against the guard. Together force the turnover.
*19:00. Rockets spend almost 20 seconds trying to get the ball to Hakeem (one of the weaknesses of an offense centered around a post up player who isn’t as active off ball). Perfectly timed double for Bird, and the steal, and that’s at least the 3rd fast break generated with Bird’s defense.
*15:50. Bird solid pass to open midrange, then active off ball getting in offensive rebounding position, then gets the 2.
*22:30. Hakeem turnover pass, and Bird with the great positioning for the steal, for the fourth time Bird’s defense has generated a fast break and points.
*28:00. Good defensive play by Hakeem. Rim intimidation prevents shot, then makes the pass a bit harder for his man, then packs paint to help with rebound.
*29:55. Same post up passing limitation, now for Celtics. Fantastic quickness from Hakeem to steal the pass to Walton and get the dunk. Next play Hakeem pokes it away from Walton and again is quick in transition to get the transition dunk. Next possession, Bird tries another layup/postup pass to Walton. Hakeem gambles for steal and gets it. Generates defense to offense from Hakeem, three possessions in a row. This is the game of telegraphed postups and turnovers. Best defensive stretch for Hakeem in this game, and it’s fantastic.
*33:30. Bird off-ball. Runs an off-ball screen in the short midrange, then runs out to the 3 point line. He’s done this ~3 times so far, and the play has usually been to help set up a teammate near the basket, run out then throw a quick pass to the teammate for a layup. Here he counters, running back in to get an inside seal himself. He gets the pass and it’s a layup. Walton spacing helps pull out Hakeem, although Hakeem’s slower court mapping means he doesn’t see the pay until it’s too late.
*33:47. Bird help defense in the paint, forces the jump ball. Then wins the jump ball over Hakeem. Wow!
*34:45. Bird pump fake sends defender flying. Great quick help rotation by Hakeem for the block, and Walton’s there for the putback. Although somehow it’s a foul on Bird, and free throws for him.
*40:45. Great Layup pass by Bird. Dennis Johnson misses the open shot but it’s a foul. *42:30. Another great layup pass by Bird. Great vision, speed, and placement.
*43:12. Hakeem rim protection. Bites on the Parish bump fake, but avoids the foul, and it’s tough to force a miss. Fights both Parish and McHale for the rebound. McHale gets it and puts it up, with another Hakeem rim contest. Miss and its Rocket’s ball on the fast break.
*43:58. HAHA
*46:12. Bird off ball movement to get open, then the pump fake. One can see from the angle of their head that the off-ball movement and fake distracts McHale’s defender which makes them unaware of the back screen — the subtle value of off ball movement. Having to track Man, Ball, and Off-ball threat is 50% more things to track than just Man and Ball; at NBA game speed, the tiniest lapses in attention lead to more defensive mistakes, and off-ball threats can do this constantly throughout the possession. After the distraction, there’s a fantastic layup pass through traffic by Bird. ~5th layup pass by Bird of the game.
*1:12:10. Two man game with Hakeem and McCrae. Less common for the Rockets’ style of offense, but still interesting to see. Screen is fairly telegraphed, and neither are too active off ball. Moreso just waiting to get back in scoring position. Soft double of Hakeem. Slow pass gives Bird time to get back to his man, although a better teammate for Hakeem would be a better spacer who would shift further from Hakeem to punish the double. Perhaps those are more modern sensibilities. I do like how Hakeem takes up space as an offensive rebounder.
*1:13:33. Bird gets free off ball, then layup pass. 8th. Free throws.
*1:23:22. Hakeem shoots into the triple team, in the middle of the floor with two teammates open. These are the limitations in Hakeem’s decision making that really might limit his younger impact. Thinking Basketball’s tracking has him shooting <40% when doubled, which is pretty good scoring adjusting for coverage, but pretty sub-optimal offense when there’s a pass available. Miss. Maybe the positive is that there’s passive / latent scoring gravity that helps their rebounding? Which there’s some evidence of in the series (and in this possession), although less the Celtics’ adjustment seems to be helping with rebounding. For this possession, the paint is packed enough that the Rockets’ offensive rebound doesn’t lead to a good shot. I’d rather Hakeem pass to one of the open men when tripled.
*1:25:40. Hakeem shoots into double / soft triple when the layup pass is right in front of him. This shows the passing limitations I’ve been discussing. Blocked, but he gets it back. Gestures for the iso, then it’s a tough fadeaway .
*1:39:47. Bird fantastic cut to get open for a layup. The delivery is a touch too slow and low and the opportunity is gone, but Bird instead cuts to the corner for the turnaround three and it’s good. Bird’s an all-time level shooter, and the move seems a bit reminiscent of Curry’s famous relocation threes in game 7 against the 2018 Rockets.
If anyone's low on peak Bird but hasn't watched a 1986 Bird game in a while (or high on Bird and just want to enjoy the show), I'd highly encourage you to watch a few of the selected plays from this game -- it's great stuff!
