James Harden is a superstar

Moderators: trex_8063, penbeast0, PaulieWal, Clyde Frazier, Doctor MJ

Wall34
Pro Prospect
Posts: 761
And1: 146
Joined: Dec 04, 2012

Re: James Harden is a superstar 

Post#1001 » by Wall34 » Sun Dec 30, 2012 4:34 am

Harden had a off night but i was expecting him to be tired after the Spurs game...Overall based on his play this season i can say he is on the cusp of becoming a superstar i am still not completely sold on him being a future superstar yet.
User avatar
eliasrapp98
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,325
And1: 381
Joined: May 28, 2012
Location: Philly
       

Re: James Harden is a superstar 

Post#1002 » by eliasrapp98 » Sun Dec 30, 2012 8:16 am

orangeparka wrote:You're absolutely right.

They need to trade that chucker KD and let Harden take over.

Oh how stupid this looks now. In fact, this could've been considered stupid then to, but I have a bad memory...
PG: Russell Westbrook, Reggie Jackson
SG: Andre Roberson, Anthony Morrow, Jeremy Lamb
SF: Kevin Durant, KJ McDaniels, Perry Jones
PF: Serge Ibaka, Nick Collison, Robert Covington
Cc: Al Jefferson, Steven Adams, Kendrick Perkins, Mitch McGary
Doctor MJ
Senior Mod
Senior Mod
Posts: 53,585
And1: 22,554
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Location: Cali
     

Re: James Harden is a superstar 

Post#1003 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Dec 30, 2012 8:57 am

OptimusOne6 wrote:
tsherkin wrote:Melo is playing at Harden's level right now, he's having a fantastic season. Basically nothing suggests that he's better.


Melo is the better overall player. I don't see many advantages Harden truly has over Melo. He gets to the line more and is a slightly better passer, but that's about it. Melo is better than Harden at every other aspect and by a good margin too.


This is a weird thing to say relating to Melo given that he's known for being nothing like an all-around player. He's known as a scorer not particularly adept at anything else, and down right awful on defense. Things are changing this year most definitely, but if you want to say Melo has a considerable edge on Harden in a non-scoring capacity you need to elaborate on that, not just slide it in there vaguely and add "by a good margin".

OptimusOne6 wrote:Outside of scoring, Westbrook is quite clearly better than Harden at every other aspect so the all-around game and versatility goes to Westbrook.


Another odd statement. It was very common before this year for people to note that Harden seemed a more naturally talented passer. If you think that Westbrook is clearly demonstrating otherwise, you should expound. It has never been a "clear" edge unless you go by nothing more than APG.
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!
OptimusOne6
Junior
Posts: 477
And1: 23
Joined: Nov 20, 2011
Location: Chicago

Re: James Harden is a superstar 

Post#1004 » by OptimusOne6 » Sun Dec 30, 2012 9:13 am

Doctor MJ wrote:This is a weird thing to say relating to Melo given that he's known for being nothing like an all-around player. He's known as a scorer not particularly adept at anything else, and down right awful on defense. Things are changing this year most definitely, but if you want to say Melo has a considerable edge on Harden in a non-scoring capacity you need to elaborate on that, not just slide it in there vaguely and add "by a good margin".

Melo is a better rebounder and I do think Melo is pretty close to Harden as a passer. Harden is pretty overrated of a passer to me. I'm not sure why people think he's so special at that aspect. He's unselfish and he's willing to make the pass, but he doesn't always do good job of it. I would say despite Melo being a pretty subpar defender, it's still better than Harden's defense from what I've seen.

Another odd statement. It was very common before this year for people to note that Harden seemed a more naturally talented passer. If you think that Westbrook is clearly demonstrating otherwise, you should expound. It has never been a "clear" edge unless you go by nothing more than APG.

It's something I never agreed with though, so...... APG is just another thing that makes up my point, but even without it I feel like Westbrook is a better passer.

Harden is relatively turnover prone as the primary ball-handler/playmaker. He has been relieved of some of those duties with Lin stepping up recently and with the return of Kevin Mchale.

Harden was the league leader in turnovers a few weeks ago when Kelvin Sampson was the coach with about 4 per game. This was because the Rockets used Harden as the primary ball-handler and playmaker, the role that Westbrook currently has with OKC. He was also averaging about 5 apg during that stretch which is not a whole lot. He was far worse than Westbrook during that stretch. Since Mchale has returned, Harden has been utilized in the mix of Durant and Westbrook's role in OKC, he sometimes plays off the ball and he sometimes plays with it.

The only argument that Harden has over Westbrook to me is his scoring advantage because I don't think he is better than him at anything else. Meaning that, Harden could be argued as a better player than Westbrook just because he's so much better of a scorer. It's a legitimate argument because Harden is a ton more efficient and a better outside shooter, but as I said, I'm not sure if I really trust Harden in last second/clutch situations and when defenses are set. It's a new ball game for Harden when that's the case.
Doctor MJ
Senior Mod
Senior Mod
Posts: 53,585
And1: 22,554
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Location: Cali
     

Re: James Harden is a superstar 

Post#1005 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Dec 30, 2012 9:54 pm

Cool, appreciate you fleshing your thoughts out Optimus.

A few thoughts:

1. How do you compare Melo's rebounding to Harden's? They don't play the same position. Interestingly, Melo is now for the first time really functioning like gangbusters, and it involves him playing the 4. Do you really see Melo as someone who is clearly more impressive at rebounding compared to other 4's as Harden is compared to 2's?

2. Harden & turnovers. This is interesting because I think turnovers are indeed a good criticism of Harden right now. More telling than his individual numbers is his team being the 2nd most turnover prone team in the entire league!

However you bring it up in comparison to Westbrook.
Westbrook plays on OKC.
OKC is the MOST turnover prone team in the league.

I have to ask, are you aware of this?

3. You've mentioned Harden in the clutch twice. Are you aware that in the clutch Harden is still scoring more, and at higher efficiency than Westbrook?

This doesn't necessarily mean that your point is off the mark, but if you are sensing Harden not being able to function in the clutch and not sensing something similar from Westbrook, why do you think you are so much more sensitive to Harden's struggles than Westbrook's?
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!
OptimusOne6
Junior
Posts: 477
And1: 23
Joined: Nov 20, 2011
Location: Chicago

Re: James Harden is a superstar 

Post#1006 » by OptimusOne6 » Sun Dec 30, 2012 10:03 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Cool, appreciate you fleshing your thoughts out Optimus.

A few thoughts:

1. How do you compare Melo's rebounding to Harden's? They don't play the same position. Interestingly, Melo is now for the first time really functioning like gangbusters, and it involves him playing the 4. Do you really see Melo as someone who is clearly more impressive at rebounding compared to other 4's as Harden is compared to 2's?

Melo is a pretty good rebounder. He has good technique and he follows up on his rebound. He plays the 3 and the 4 and closer to the basket compared to Harden, but he shouldn't get penalized for that. It is why bigs or players that play closer to the basket on both ends generally have more of an impact than perimeter/jump shooter type players.

2. Harden & turnovers. This is interesting because I think turnovers are indeed a good criticism of Harden right now. More telling than his individual numbers is his team being the 2nd most turnover prone team in the entire league!

However you bring it up in comparison to Westbrook.
Westbrook plays on OKC.
OKC is the MOST turnover prone team in the league.

I have to ask, are you aware of this?

Actually, you are wrong. Houston averages more topg than OKC does, but I don't think that actually matters much.

Westbrook does not average more turnovers per game than Harden does. Westbrook averages about 3.4 topg, while Harden averages about 3.6 topg.

OKC turns the ball over a lot, but that is not on Westbrook. Westbrook is not even the most turnover prone player on the team, Durant is, although they both average the same amount of topg with 3.4. Westbrook handles the ball far more though and Durant plays more off the ball, so because of that I would say Durant is more turnover prone since he has less touches with the ball and is making more mistakes.

3. You've mentioned Harden in the clutch twice. Are you aware that in the clutch Harden is still scoring more, and at higher efficiency than Westbrook?

This doesn't necessarily mean that your point is off the mark, but if you are sensing Harden not being able to function in the clutch and not sensing something similar from Westbrook, why do you think you are so much more sensitive to Harden's struggles than Westbrook's?

I'm not aware, so I would like to see the stats on their clutch numbers.

With that being said, I do feel like certain defenses and certain personnel affect Harden more than it affects Westbrook. It doesn't seem to affect Westbrook as much, while it seems to completely throw off Harden's game. For example, last season in the Finals, Harden was a liability out there, whereas Westbrook was actually pretty good in the series.

EDIT - I just checked their clutch stats on NBA.com and it does show that Westbrook is better, at least in terms of efficiency, TS%. I used NBA.com's advanced stats, not 82 games, so maybe you have your info mixed up. 82 games does not update daily like NBA.com does.
User avatar
fallacy
RealGM
Posts: 10,496
And1: 607
Joined: Jan 11, 2010
       

Re: James Harden is a superstar 

Post#1007 » by fallacy » Sun Dec 30, 2012 11:41 pm

Neither are good in the clutch, but Westbrook takes it slightly over Harden.

Westbrook has a .384 eFg% in the clutch, Harden has a .394 eFg%; so that's a wash
Westbrook shoots .325 eFg% on jumpshots in the clutch, Harden shoots .278 eFg%; Goes to Westbrook
Westbrook shoots .500 eFg% inside in the clutch, Harden shoots .533 eFg%; Slight to Harden
Harden shoots it more in the clutch, but that's expected and really irrelevant

Now here is where Westbrook separates himself from Harden in the clutch.

Harden (clutch): 105.8 ORtg, 103.4 DRtg, +3 net points, and his unit has "won the clutch" 56.3%
Russell (clutch): 113.5 ORtg, 87.4 DRtg, +34 net points, and his unit has "won the clutch" 71.4%



But overall, both are bad in the clutch. Just to compare Harden/Westbrook to an superstar in the clutch so you can see how bad it really is.

Harden: 26.5 FGA, .364 fg%, .394 eFg%, 36.9 points
Durant: 27.6 FGA, .528 fg%, .569 eFg%, 49.8 points
**** Ron Artest
**** Marco Belinelli
Stephen Jackson aint bout dis lyfe
Patrick Beverly deserves to have his knee ripped to pieces
User avatar
fallacy
RealGM
Posts: 10,496
And1: 607
Joined: Jan 11, 2010
       

Re: James Harden is a superstar 

Post#1008 » by fallacy » Sun Dec 30, 2012 11:54 pm

And addressing the ballhandling/playmaking between Westbrook and Harden, Westbrook takes that quite easily.


Harden has 144 total assists and 45 passing turnovers, for a 3.2 ratio and a 7.2 "passing rating"
Westbrook has 243 total assists and 48 passing turnovers, for a 5.1 ratio and a 16.0 "passing rating"

that's playmaking, now for ball handling

Harden has 10 Offensive fouls, 45 bad passes, and 41 handling turnovers; for a 16.5 "handling rating"
Westbrook has 13 offensive fouls, 48 bad passes, and a 34 handling turnoves; for a 30.2 "handling rating"

Westbrook has been almost twice as good in the ball handling and play making department so far this year. Harden has actually been quite poor, considering this was supposed to be his strength.



*These are from 82games.com
**** Ron Artest
**** Marco Belinelli
Stephen Jackson aint bout dis lyfe
Patrick Beverly deserves to have his knee ripped to pieces
Doctor MJ
Senior Mod
Senior Mod
Posts: 53,585
And1: 22,554
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Location: Cali
     

Re: James Harden is a superstar 

Post#1009 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Dec 31, 2012 12:09 am

OptimusOne6 wrote:Melo is a pretty good rebounder. He has good technique and he follows up on his rebound. He plays the 3 and the 4 and closer to the basket compared to Harden, but he shouldn't get penalized for that. It is why bigs or players that play closer to the basket on both ends generally have more of an impact than perimeter/jump shooter type players.


Oh he needs to be penalized for that. Think about it:

Why do we not have 5 bigs on the floor at all times? After all, that would help with rebounding, right? Because you need guys with a variety of talents in order to make an optimal basketball team. If you play the 3, you're taking the spot of some other player of typical 3 size. Hence, the fact that you can outrebound a 1 doesn't really matter when considering your rebounding skill. What matters is what you can give compared to someone else playing that role.

This is particularly noteworthy now for Melo because he's playing the 4 and thriving like never before in no small part because he presents an offensive mismatch. For every offensive mismatch you present though, that means some drawback elsewhere. In Melo's case, it's clear that it's still worth it because of how much more effective he's being as an offensive threat, but it does mean he's taking the place of a 4 sized guy, and a typical 4 is probably a better rebounder than Melo.

OptimusOne6 wrote:Actually, you are wrong. Houston averages more topg than OKC does, but I don't think that actually matters much.

Westbrook does not average more turnovers per game than Harden does. Westbrook averages about 3.4 topg, while Harden averages about 3.6 topg.

OKC turns the ball over a lot, but that is not on Westbrook. Westbrook is not even the most turnover prone player on the team, Durant is, although they both average the same amount of topg with 3.4. Westbrook handles the ball far more though and Durant plays more off the ball, so because of that I would say Durant is more turnover prone since he has less touches with the ball and is making more mistakes.


Eh, well you're right that it doesn't matter too much, but since you're quibbling, I'll correct the quibble: What matters is a team's turnover rate, not their total turnovers.

Now more noteworthy, you bring it right back to the individual numbers after I moved us to team numbers. Clearly we have a different perspective here. What I know to be the case is that individual turnovers can be very misleading. If a team is doing fine turnover-wise, I don't much care about a playmaker's turnovers. If the team is doing bad turnover-wise, then there's not really anything that can make me praise the individuals on that front.

I would be inclined to agree that Westbrook does have an edge turnover-wise though. In general, I find that to be the main redeeming feature of the ball-dominant shoot-first-inefficiently guard.

OptimusOne6 wrote:I'm not aware, so I would like to see the stats on their clutch numbers.

With that being said, I do feel like certain defenses and certain personnel affect Harden more than it affects Westbrook. It doesn't seem to affect Westbrook as much, while it seems to completely throw off Harden's game. For example, last season in the Finals, Harden was a liability out there, whereas Westbrook was actually pretty good in the series.

EDIT - I just checked their clutch stats on NBA.com and it does show that Westbrook is better, at least in terms of efficiency, TS%. I used NBA.com's advanced stats, not 82 games, so maybe you have your info mixed up. 82 games does not update daily like NBA.com does.


I stand corrected. You're right also, I'm still in the habit of using 82games. I need to move away now that the NBA's site is so improved.
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!
Doctor MJ
Senior Mod
Senior Mod
Posts: 53,585
And1: 22,554
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Location: Cali
     

Re: James Harden is a superstar 

Post#1010 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Dec 31, 2012 12:12 am

fallacy wrote:Neither are good in the clutch, but Westbrook takes it slightly over Harden.

Westbrook has a .384 eFg% in the clutch, Harden has a .394 eFg%; so that's a wash
Westbrook shoots .325 eFg% on jumpshots in the clutch, Harden shoots .278 eFg%; Goes to Westbrook
Westbrook shoots .500 eFg% inside in the clutch, Harden shoots .533 eFg%; Slight to Harden
Harden shoots it more in the clutch, but that's expected and really irrelevant

Now here is where Westbrook separates himself from Harden in the clutch.

Harden (clutch): 105.8 ORtg, 103.4 DRtg, +3 net points, and his unit has "won the clutch" 56.3%
Russell (clutch): 113.5 ORtg, 87.4 DRtg, +34 net points, and his unit has "won the clutch" 71.4%



But overall, both are bad in the clutch. Just to compare Harden/Westbrook to an superstar in the clutch so you can see how bad it really is.

Harden: 26.5 FGA, .364 fg%, .394 eFg%, 36.9 points
Durant: 27.6 FGA, .528 fg%, .569 eFg%, 49.8 points


I'm fine with the assessment they are both lacking, and the comparison with Durant is apt.

Rather absurd though for you to use team stats as where Westbrook separates himself. You're basically saying Westbrook separates himself by playing with Durant. Well yeah. Durant's the MVP of the whole dang league. Nice pet to have there.
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!
Doctor MJ
Senior Mod
Senior Mod
Posts: 53,585
And1: 22,554
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Location: Cali
     

Re: James Harden is a superstar 

Post#1011 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Dec 31, 2012 12:14 am

fallacy wrote:And addressing the ballhandling/playmaking between Westbrook and Harden, Westbrook takes that quite easily.


Harden has 144 total assists and 45 passing turnovers, for a 3.2 ratio and a 7.2 "passing rating"
Westbrook has 243 total assists and 48 passing turnovers, for a 5.1 ratio and a 16.0 "passing rating"

that's playmaking, now for ball handling

Harden has 10 Offensive fouls, 45 bad passes, and 41 handling turnovers; for a 16.5 "handling rating"
Westbrook has 13 offensive fouls, 48 bad passes, and a 34 handling turnoves; for a 30.2 "handling rating"

Westbrook has been almost twice as good in the ball handling and play making department so far this year. Harden has actually been quite poor, considering this was supposed to be his strength.



*These are from 82games.com


I'm not that sold on these kind of individual numbers. When I get a chance I'll dig through some of Evan Z's regression data from last year.
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!
User avatar
fallacy
RealGM
Posts: 10,496
And1: 607
Joined: Jan 11, 2010
       

Re: James Harden is a superstar 

Post#1012 » by fallacy » Mon Dec 31, 2012 12:21 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
fallacy wrote:Neither are good in the clutch, but Westbrook takes it slightly over Harden.

Westbrook has a .384 eFg% in the clutch, Harden has a .394 eFg%; so that's a wash
Westbrook shoots .325 eFg% on jumpshots in the clutch, Harden shoots .278 eFg%; Goes to Westbrook
Westbrook shoots .500 eFg% inside in the clutch, Harden shoots .533 eFg%; Slight to Harden
Harden shoots it more in the clutch, but that's expected and really irrelevant

Now here is where Westbrook separates himself from Harden in the clutch.

Harden (clutch): 105.8 ORtg, 103.4 DRtg, +3 net points, and his unit has "won the clutch" 56.3%
Russell (clutch): 113.5 ORtg, 87.4 DRtg, +34 net points, and his unit has "won the clutch" 71.4%



But overall, both are bad in the clutch. Just to compare Harden/Westbrook to an superstar in the clutch so you can see how bad it really is.

Harden: 26.5 FGA, .364 fg%, .394 eFg%, 36.9 points
Durant: 27.6 FGA, .528 fg%, .569 eFg%, 49.8 points


I'm fine with the assessment they are both lacking, and the comparison with Durant is apt.

Rather absurd though for you to use team stats as where Westbrook separates himself. You're basically saying Westbrook separates himself by playing with Durant. Well yeah. Durant's the MVP of the whole dang league. Nice pet to have there.


I meant that more as in "westbrook can turn on the defense and lock teams down in the clutch, where as Harden can not." That's what separates them in the clutch, defense. Both of their offensive games are bad in the clutch, but Westbrook has his defensive game to fall back on where harden gets abused on defense. Kind of a cool example of this was the Dallas game a couple of days ago where Westbrook won OKC the game with two steals late in the game
**** Ron Artest
**** Marco Belinelli
Stephen Jackson aint bout dis lyfe
Patrick Beverly deserves to have his knee ripped to pieces
G35
RealGM
Posts: 22,523
And1: 8,071
Joined: Dec 10, 2005
     

Re: James Harden is a superstar 

Post#1013 » by G35 » Mon Dec 31, 2012 1:25 am

fallacy wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
fallacy wrote:Neither are good in the clutch, but Westbrook takes it slightly over Harden.

Westbrook has a .384 eFg% in the clutch, Harden has a .394 eFg%; so that's a wash
Westbrook shoots .325 eFg% on jumpshots in the clutch, Harden shoots .278 eFg%; Goes to Westbrook
Westbrook shoots .500 eFg% inside in the clutch, Harden shoots .533 eFg%; Slight to Harden
Harden shoots it more in the clutch, but that's expected and really irrelevant

Now here is where Westbrook separates himself from Harden in the clutch.

Harden (clutch): 105.8 ORtg, 103.4 DRtg, +3 net points, and his unit has "won the clutch" 56.3%
Russell (clutch): 113.5 ORtg, 87.4 DRtg, +34 net points, and his unit has "won the clutch" 71.4%



But overall, both are bad in the clutch. Just to compare Harden/Westbrook to an superstar in the clutch so you can see how bad it really is.

Harden: 26.5 FGA, .364 fg%, .394 eFg%, 36.9 points
Durant: 27.6 FGA, .528 fg%, .569 eFg%, 49.8 points


I'm fine with the assessment they are both lacking, and the comparison with Durant is apt.

Rather absurd though for you to use team stats as where Westbrook separates himself. You're basically saying Westbrook separates himself by playing with Durant. Well yeah. Durant's the MVP of the whole dang league. Nice pet to have there.


I meant that more as in "westbrook can turn on the defense and lock teams down in the clutch, where as Harden can not." That's what separates them in the clutch, defense. Both of their offensive games are bad in the clutch, but Westbrook has his defensive game to fall back on where harden gets abused on defense. Kind of a cool example of this was the Dallas game a couple of days ago where Westbrook won OKC the game with two steals late in the game



Nice to see Harden's entire game being evaluated instead of just how efficient he is in determining his "superstardom". I thought being a superstar was more than just shooting. I also like that PG defense is addressed being in the minority thinking that PG can make a big difference.....
I'm so tired of the typical......
OptimusOne6
Junior
Posts: 477
And1: 23
Joined: Nov 20, 2011
Location: Chicago

Re: James Harden is a superstar 

Post#1014 » by OptimusOne6 » Mon Dec 31, 2012 1:33 am

Doctor MJ wrote:Oh he needs to be penalized for that. Think about it:

Why do we not have 5 bigs on the floor at all times? After all, that would help with rebounding, right? Because you need guys with a variety of talents in order to make an optimal basketball team. If you play the 3, you're taking the spot of some other player of typical 3 size. Hence, the fact that you can outrebound a 1 doesn't really matter when considering your rebounding skill. What matters is what you can give compared to someone else playing that role.

Well Melo does play a good amount of 3 still, so it's hard to evaluate. Melo is a very good rebounder though, but I'm still not exactly sure what the argument that makes Harden better. Melo is also a better scorer than Harden and I do think it's by a decent margin. Melo actually is a very clutch player and reliable down the stretch and not so much with Harden, as I've stated in the Harden-Westbrook comparison.


Eh, well you're right that it doesn't matter too much, but since you're quibbling, I'll correct the quibble: What matters is a team's turnover rate, not their total turnovers.

Now more noteworthy, you bring it right back to the individual numbers after I moved us to team numbers. Clearly we have a different perspective here. What I know to be the case is that individual turnovers can be very misleading. If a team is doing fine turnover-wise, I don't much care about a playmaker's turnovers. If the team is doing bad turnover-wise, then there's not really anything that can make me praise the individuals on that front.

I would be inclined to agree that Westbrook does have an edge turnover-wise though. In general, I find that to be the main redeeming feature of the ball-dominant shoot-first-inefficiently guard.

Different view indeed. I'm just talking about individual play here, not team play. I'm not sure how one can fault Westbrook for Durant's sloppy passes or sloppy handles and being pick pocketed. It's not on him and same for Harden. If Lin makes a terrible pass or just flat out gets stripped, it's not Harden's issue either.

Nevertheless, I stand by my statement that Westbrook is a better passer and he does take care of the ball. It does seem like their individual numbers prove that to be true and so does Fallacy's numbers on their playmaking ability.
Wall34
Pro Prospect
Posts: 761
And1: 146
Joined: Dec 04, 2012

Re: James Harden is a superstar 

Post#1015 » by Wall34 » Mon Dec 31, 2012 1:46 am

Nice to see Westbrook defense be brought up personally i feel like his defense is kinda overrated i think he often overplays the passing lanes and picks up silly fouls but late in games Westbrook does turn it up and plays great at that end of the floor.
Doctor MJ
Senior Mod
Senior Mod
Posts: 53,585
And1: 22,554
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Location: Cali
     

Re: James Harden is a superstar 

Post#1016 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Dec 31, 2012 8:13 am

fallacy wrote:I meant that more as in "westbrook can turn on the defense and lock teams down in the clutch, where as Harden can not." That's what separates them in the clutch, defense. Both of their offensive games are bad in the clutch, but Westbrook has his defensive game to fall back on where harden gets abused on defense. Kind of a cool example of this was the Dallas game a couple of days ago where Westbrook won OKC the game with two steals late in the game


Eh, okay. Well, I did misunderstand then.

I suppose this will come off as a "oh yeah, well..." but just be a little careful there. Last year, Westbrook's unit was lower than Harden's current unit in the clutch. These numbers can vary a lot with sample size.
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!
Doctor MJ
Senior Mod
Senior Mod
Posts: 53,585
And1: 22,554
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Location: Cali
     

Re: James Harden is a superstar 

Post#1017 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Dec 31, 2012 8:30 am

OptimusOne6 wrote:Well Melo does play a good amount of 3 still, so it's hard to evaluate. Melo is a very good rebounder though, but I'm still not exactly sure what the argument that makes Harden better. Melo is also a better scorer than Harden and I do think it's by a decent margin. Melo actually is a very clutch player and reliable down the stretch and not so much with Harden, as I've stated in the Harden-Westbrook comparison.


I would agree with you that it's hard to evaluate. That's really all I was trying to say. I will add in though when you say he "follows up", what makes Jevale McGee a bad rebounder isn't that he doesn't follow up but that he tends not to work with his teammates which makes his defensive rebounding wretched.

Looking at regression data on Melo for previous years, what I see is that his offensive number is basically neutral, but his defensive number is quite bad. I don't know the numbers will mean anything to you but I'll list them here because others have been good at listing numbers. Here's the source first of all, basically the last 3 years before this one:

http://www.d3coder.com/thecity/2012/02/ ... ctor-a4pm/

Comparing offensive rebounding (positive means more offensive rebounds, so it's good):
Harden +0.37
Melo -0.08

Comparing defensive rebounding (positive means more offensive rebounds for opponent, so it's bad):
Harden +1.19
Melo +1.26

So neither come off looking good. Harden has a slight edge. Nothing big enough to claim he's clearly better than Melo, but that he has the edge at all does mean that giving Melo the clear edge here I don't think stands up.

And as mentioned, Melo is now playing power forward. Short of system changes, we can expect his rebounding to be worse now because he competing with bigger players.

Re: Melo still playing a good amount of 3. Really? Care to go more into detail? Not saying he does none, but that's not my impression, and it would be kind of amazing for Amare to move to a 6th man role if there wasn't a conflict between he and Melo in the new setup.

Re: Melo a better scorer. I would say Melo's skill level as a scorer is extraordinary. More so than Harden definitely. Prior to this year though Melo's execution on that skillset in a team concept has left a lot to be desired. Not that I'd argue against Melo being clearly the more valuable player right now, he is, but if you're seeing Melo as Melo, always the superior scorer, well there's a lot more than that going on.

OptimusOne6 wrote:Different view indeed. I'm just talking about individual play here, not team play. I'm not sure how one can fault Westbrook for Durant's sloppy passes or sloppy handles and being pick pocketed. It's not on him and same for Harden. If Lin makes a terrible pass or just flat out gets stripped, it's not Harden's issue either.

Nevertheless, I stand by my statement that Westbrook is a better passer and he does take care of the ball. It does seem like their individual numbers prove that to be true and so does Fallacy's numbers on their playmaking ability.


It's not a matter of faulting, it's a matter of being cautious in giving Westbrook a huge thumb's up in an area that his team is completely sucking at. I understand that you might feel you understand the situation well enough to separate Westbrook from what the team is doing, I just tread carefully there. In general I've seen a lot of people go down some nasty rabbit holes putting too much stock in a good individual stat in a bad team context.
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!
Doctor MJ
Senior Mod
Senior Mod
Posts: 53,585
And1: 22,554
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Location: Cali
     

Re: James Harden is a superstar 

Post#1018 » by Doctor MJ » Mon Dec 31, 2012 8:39 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
fallacy wrote:And addressing the ballhandling/playmaking between Westbrook and Harden, Westbrook takes that quite easily.


Harden has 144 total assists and 45 passing turnovers, for a 3.2 ratio and a 7.2 "passing rating"
Westbrook has 243 total assists and 48 passing turnovers, for a 5.1 ratio and a 16.0 "passing rating"

that's playmaking, now for ball handling

Harden has 10 Offensive fouls, 45 bad passes, and 41 handling turnovers; for a 16.5 "handling rating"
Westbrook has 13 offensive fouls, 48 bad passes, and a 34 handling turnoves; for a 30.2 "handling rating"

Westbrook has been almost twice as good in the ball handling and play making department so far this year. Harden has actually been quite poor, considering this was supposed to be his strength.



*These are from 82games.com


I'm not that sold on these kind of individual numbers. When I get a chance I'll dig through some of Evan Z's regression data from last year.


So adding in here. You assert better playmaking and ball handling.

You assert playmaking based on assists. What we saw last year was that assists went way up in OKC when Westbrook went out. I'm not going to say that definitively means Westbrook is hurting playmaking, but clearly you simply quoting the assists credited to Westbrook is insufficient proof given the fact that Westbrook tends to significantly diminish the assists others are getting.

Quoting the regression data here, we don't have anything for playmaking really (though if we had it for assists, it would make Westbrook look bad, rightly or wrongly), but we do have a turnover metric. Here's how the two stacked up over the past 2-3 years (negative being good, because it means less turnovers):

Harden -0.29
Westbrook 0.00

So basically before this year, regression data would tell us that OKC's assisting went up and turnovers went down with Harden rather than Westbrook. It's not a perfect measurement. I'm not saying it's proof, but it is factoring in stuff beyond what you do, and it yields results that at the very least didn't back up your assertion.

Of course my data is old. I don't have anything for this year. If your assertion is that things have changed this year, then the data I'm showing can't speak to that. What do you think - is this an observation you think relates to a recent evolution?
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!
JordansBulls
RealGM
Posts: 60,467
And1: 5,349
Joined: Jul 12, 2006
Location: HCA (Homecourt Advantage)

Re: James Harden is a superstar 

Post#1019 » by JordansBulls » Tue Jan 1, 2013 5:04 am

He is at 26/5/5 now at 45% FG, those are as good as Tmac's numbers as a Rocket who in effect was considered a superstar.
Image
"Talent wins games, but teamwork and intelligence wins championships."
- Michael Jordan
Krodis
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,876
And1: 599
Joined: Nov 28, 2009

Re: James Harden is a superstar 

Post#1020 » by Krodis » Tue Jan 1, 2013 6:05 am

The Rockets just kill the Eastern Conference.

Return to Player Comparisons