'17-'18 POY discussion

[dhsilv2]

This was just a matchup problem. Playoffs aren't always even about talent (though GSW wins there too).

Idk. Without Curry I don’t really see a big matchup advantage GS has. The Warriors haven’t looked great outside that 2nd quarter explosion and they’ve been atrocious here in the third.

The Pels just can’t survive Jrue having a 4/14, five foul night with Davis having a bad game as well.

It's not a 'matchup advantage', it's a talent mismatch. On one side, you have the most talented NBA team ever assembled, on the other you have Anthony Davis + role players (and that's a nice description for about half the roster, who are barely NBA level).

Pels need AD to be AD and all their role players clicking in order to have a chance to win any game vs GSW.

Come on now, Holiday is and never has been a role player. By this board definitions AD might as well be the role player on the team.

[Joey Wheeler]

Idk. Without Curry I don’t really see a big matchup advantage GS has. The Warriors haven’t looked great outside that 2nd quarter explosion and they’ve been atrocious here in the third.

The Pels just can’t survive Jrue having a 4/14, five foul night with Davis having a bad game as well.

It's not a 'matchup advantage', it's a talent mismatch. On one side, you have the most talented NBA team ever assembled, on the other you have Anthony Davis + role players (and that's a nice description for about half the roster, who are barely NBA level).

Pels need AD to be AD and all their role players clicking in order to have a chance to win any game vs GSW.

Come on now, Holiday is and never has been a role player. By this board definitions AD might as well be the role player on the team.

What? He has always been a role player. A very good role player, yes, but he's no star and a terrible #2 for a team with contending ambitions.

As for the second sentence, I don't even understand what you're trying to say there. Without Cousins around, the Pels are clearly a 1-superstar + role players team. Just compare the supporting talent AD has to Durant's (a player of similar level) and it's easy to understand why the series is likely to be one-sided (even more so after Curry comes back)

[Dr Spaceman]

It's not a 'matchup advantage', it's a talent mismatch. On one side, you have the most talented NBA team ever assembled, on the other you have Anthony Davis + role players (and that's a nice description for about half the roster, who are barely NBA level).

Pels need AD to be AD and all their role players clicking in order to have a chance to win any game vs GSW.

Come on now, Holiday is and never has been a role player. By this board definitions AD might as well be the role player on the team.

What? He has always been a role player. A very good role player, yes, but he's no star and a terrible #2 for a team with contending ambitions.

As for the second sentence, I don't even understand what you're trying to say there. Without Cousins around, the Pels are clearly a 1-superstar + role players team. Just compare the supporting talent AD has to Durant's (a player of similar level) and it's easy to understand why the series is likely to be one-sided (even more so after Curry comes back)

Jrue is not a role player. Unless “running the offense” is a role. Nobody who runs so much of his offense from iso and pick and roll can be labeled with that term.

He’s not a star, but as a #2 guy you could clearly do worse. For example, Cleveland, Washington, Toronto, Boston, Indiana, San Antonio, Utah, Milwaukee, and Miami all do worse with their second option. That’s 9/16 teams in the postseason. Jrue is a keeper. He’s been their best player some nights.

[Joey Wheeler]

Come on now, Holiday is and never has been a role player. By this board definitions AD might as well be the role player on the team.

What? He has always been a role player. A very good role player, yes, but he's no star and a terrible #2 for a team with contending ambitions.

As for the second sentence, I don't even understand what you're trying to say there. Without Cousins around, the Pels are clearly a 1-superstar + role players team. Just compare the supporting talent AD has to Durant's (a player of similar level) and it's easy to understand why the series is likely to be one-sided (even more so after Curry comes back)

Jrue is not a role player. Unless “running the offense” is a role. Nobody who runs so much of his offense from iso and pick and roll can be labeled with that term.

He’s not a star, but as a #2 guy you could clearly do worse. For example, Cleveland, Washington, Toronto, Boston, Indiana, San Antonio, Utah, Milwaukee, and Miami all do worse with their second option. That’s 9/16 teams in the postseason. Jrue is a keeper. He’s been their best player some nights.

Cleveland - Love
Washington - Beal
Toronto - Lowry/Derozan
Utah - Mitchell

All these are easily better than Jrue.

I'm not saying he's a bad player, but you're clearly not contending with him as your 2nd best player... especially considering the lack of depth in the roster overall.

There are 3 elite players in this series, Warriors have 2 of them. Plus they have 2 other players clearly better than any non-AD guy on the Pelicans, a GOAT-level shooter and a DPOY. They also have much better depth. It's not a matchup issue, just a complete mismatch talent-wise. Pels would have a more realistic shot if Cousins was fit.

[The-Power]

Looeny is also lowkey their secret weapons for bigs. Hes given fits to Davis, Cousins, Towns and Embiid this season. He would be HUGE in a series against Philly. Houston

Looney has been great on defense all year. He just plays fundamentally sound defense – always contesting, recognizes switches, rotates well, always aware of what is going on around him. He is not the quickest but quick enough to hang with mobile bigs and contest their shots. Not the biggest but long and strong enough to not be dominated by the big guys. Great to have him on the team and I hope we will bring him back on a reasonable deal. He could start and play 20+ MPG as soon as next year if he continues to work on his body and skills (his offense is rudimentary developed, but he does know what he can and cannot do and finds ways to make himself useful).

[Dr Spaceman]

What? He has always been a role player. A very good role player, yes, but he's no star and a terrible #2 for a team with contending ambitions.

As for the second sentence, I don't even understand what you're trying to say there. Without Cousins around, the Pels are clearly a 1-superstar + role players team. Just compare the supporting talent AD has to Durant's (a player of similar level) and it's easy to understand why the series is likely to be one-sided (even more so after Curry comes back)

Jrue is not a role player. Unless “running the offense” is a role. Nobody who runs so much of his offense from iso and pick and roll can be labeled with that term.

He’s not a star, but as a #2 guy you could clearly do worse. For example, Cleveland, Washington, Toronto, Boston, Indiana, San Antonio, Utah, Milwaukee, and Miami all do worse with their second option. That’s 9/16 teams in the postseason. Jrue is a keeper. He’s been their best player some nights.

Cleveland - Love
Washington - Beal
Toronto - Lowry/Derozan
Utah - Mitchell

All these are easily better than Jrue.

I'm not saying he's a bad player, but you're clearly not contending with him as your 2nd best player... especially considering the lack of depth in the roster overall.

There are 3 elite players in this series, Warriors have 2 of them. Plus they have 2 other players clearly better than any non-AD guy on the Pelicans, a GOAT-level shooter and a DPOY. They also have much better depth. It's not a matchup issue, just a complete mismatch talent-wise. Pels would have a more realistic shot if Cousins was fit.

There is nothing “easy” about any of those guys being better than Jrue. If you base it on past performance then sure Lowry and Love and Beal are better but this season they have basically the same advanced stat profile and Holiday is performing by far the best of any of these guys in the postseason. Mitchell is a rookie who was not better in the RS and has not been better in the PS.

I don’t really want to get into a Cousins debate right now but NOP could absolutely contend with AD/Jrue if they had any semblance of a solid wing rotation. They wouldn’t be on the level of GSW/HOU but they could be the Bird best team in the league.

[Mystical Apples]

What? He has always been a role player. A very good role player, yes, but he's no star and a terrible #2 for a team with contending ambitions.

As for the second sentence, I don't even understand what you're trying to say there. Without Cousins around, the Pels are clearly a 1-superstar + role players team. Just compare the supporting talent AD has to Durant's (a player of similar level) and it's easy to understand why the series is likely to be one-sided (even more so after Curry comes back)

Jrue is not a role player. Unless “running the offense” is a role. Nobody who runs so much of his offense from iso and pick and roll can be labeled with that term.

He’s not a star, but as a #2 guy you could clearly do worse. For example, Cleveland, Washington, Toronto, Boston, Indiana, San Antonio, Utah, Milwaukee, and Miami all do worse with their second option. That’s 9/16 teams in the postseason. Jrue is a keeper. He’s been their best player some nights.

Cleveland - Love
Washington - Beal
Toronto - Lowry/Derozan
Utah - Mitchell

All these are easily better than Jrue.

I'm not saying he's a bad player, but you're clearly not contending with him as your 2nd best player... especially considering the lack of depth in the roster overall.

There are 3 elite players in this series, Warriors have 2 of them. Plus they have 2 other players clearly better than any non-AD guy on the Pelicans, a GOAT-level shooter and a DPOY. They also have much better depth. It's not a matchup issue, just a complete mismatch talent-wise. Pels would have a more realistic shot if Cousins was fit.

This season I'd have Jrue over everyone you mentioned except Lowry (narrowly). And Mirotic fairly handily over Love.

[dhsilv2]

What? He has always been a role player. A very good role player, yes, but he's no star and a terrible #2 for a team with contending ambitions.

As for the second sentence, I don't even understand what you're trying to say there. Without Cousins around, the Pels are clearly a 1-superstar + role players team. Just compare the supporting talent AD has to Durant's (a player of similar level) and it's easy to understand why the series is likely to be one-sided (even more so after Curry comes back)

Jrue is not a role player. Unless “running the offense” is a role. Nobody who runs so much of his offense from iso and pick and roll can be labeled with that term.

He’s not a star, but as a #2 guy you could clearly do worse. For example, Cleveland, Washington, Toronto, Boston, Indiana, San Antonio, Utah, Milwaukee, and Miami all do worse with their second option. That’s 9/16 teams in the postseason. Jrue is a keeper. He’s been their best player some nights.

Cleveland - Love
Washington - Beal
Toronto - Lowry/Derozan
Utah - Mitchell

All these are easily better than Jrue.

I'm not saying he's a bad player, but you're clearly not contending with him as your 2nd best player... especially considering the lack of depth in the roster overall.

There are 3 elite players in this series, Warriors have 2 of them. Plus they have 2 other players clearly better than any non-AD guy on the Pelicans, a GOAT-level shooter and a DPOY. They also have much better depth. It's not a matchup issue, just a complete mismatch talent-wise. Pels would have a more realistic shot if Cousins was fit.

So by your definition what is a role player? What is a clear way for us to identify this?

The traditional definition is a player of specialized skills who is generally a bench player. So a guy like Bowen who is primarily a defensive stopper could be seen as an elite all time great role player. A guy like Kerr who was a floor spacer is a role player, and an elite one as well. Today we see this term used for guys who cannot run an offense. However Jrue is a great offensive player who can both run the offense, create for himself, and he can create for others. AD very rarely creates offense for others and mostly scores off ball through movement and screens. By the "newer" and shall we say confusing role player standard we often get AD would fall closer to that than Jrue would despite scoring more points.

So again how do you define role player in a way that Jrue is one?

[Doctor MJ]

So, thoughts at the end of the 1st round relating to the POY:

Houston - Harden remains the leader in the clubhouse. Paul's candidacy is a lot more fragile but could still end up at #1.

Golden State - If GS wins it all, it's going to be hard to ding Durant very much. Curry will have major knocks in his candidacy, but he still has a shot at #1 in my book.

Utah - If they lose as expected to GS, I doubt any Jazzman makes my top 5. Gobert though seems very worthy of consideration, and Mitchell just keeps improving.

New Orleans - Davis feels like a Top 5 lock but hard to imagine him at #1 without a lot more success. Holiday is arguably the story of the playoffs, but no matter NO's success, it's hard to imagine people thinking of him as truly better than Davis.

Toronto - It's going to take something crazy for me to see any Raptor as a serious Top 5 candidate.
Boston - Ditto for the Celtics.

Philadephia - We've all been basically ready to write Embiid & Simmons off as "super-exciting guys who will be threats for next year", but to the extent that Philly keeps burning through the playoffs like they ended the regular season, I don't know how to put a POY ceiling for either one of these guys.

Cleveland - LeBron. LeBron LeBron...LeBron.

The eliminated?

No one eliminated in the West is still relevant for Top 5 consideration, to me the question is relevant to the two Game 7 losers in the East: Oladipo and Giannis.

Oladipo is the straight forward one. His candidacy is tied a bit to Cleveland. If Cleveland were to, say, "turn it on" and dominate the East the rest of the way, it's within the realm of possibility that Oladipo could be seen as the 2nd best candidate from that conference, and if the West has enough injury and disappointment, maybe Oladipo can squeeze in.

Giannis is the one that's hard to tie down. While he's never been a serious Top 5 candidate before this season, quite quickly this season his play made us all basically decree that Giannis was a clear cut Top 5 player. But the Bucks haven't been able to show any signs of progress really - they are still on the treadmill of mediocrity essentially unimproved since '14-15 despite the fact that Giannis' reputation has come so far. Everyone blames coaching, and yeah the coaches deserve blame. Clearly though this isn't a case of coaches getting in the way of a player who already has everything figured out. More like they just handed him the team and hoped he'd figure it all out. Maybe a new coach can take Giannis to a new level, but as things stand, Giannis is still figuring out how to consistently win in this league.

Current Top 5:
1. Harden
2. Davis
3. Paul
4. LeBron
5. Durant

Most likely to bump:
Curry
Simmons
Embiid
Gobert

A thought on Honorable Mention: For me, my "second" five is not a straight ranking. It's a bit more about just thinking of who accomplished the most for the legacy. Normally this distinction is without difference, but I'll tell you that at this point Jimmy Butler feels like a lock for HM. Butler proved a lot to me this year. Frankly I find myself looking back on the 2011 draft and asking myself: Would I really take Kawhi over Butler any more?

Last thought: I honestly don't know when we had 2 such strong rookies as Simmons & Mitchell in the same year. Might be since Bird/Magic.

[eminence]

So, thoughts at the end of the 1st round relating to the POY:

Houston - Harden remains the leader in the clubhouse. Paul's candidacy is a lot more fragile but could still end up at #1.

Golden State - If GS wins it all, it's going to be hard to ding Durant very much. Curry will have major knocks in his candidacy, but he still has a shot at #1 in my book.

Utah - If they lose as expected to GS, I doubt any Jazzman makes my top 5. Gobert though seems very worthy of consideration, and Mitchell just keeps improving.

New Orleans - Davis feels like a Top 5 lock but hard to imagine him at #1 without a lot more success. Holiday is arguably the story of the playoffs, but no matter NO's success, it's hard to imagine people thinking of him as truly better than Davis.

Toronto - It's going to take something crazy for me to see any Raptor as a serious Top 5 candidate.
Boston - Ditto for the Celtics.

Philadephia - We've all been basically ready to write Embiid & Simmons off as "super-exciting guys who will be threats for next year", but to the extent that Philly keeps burning through the playoffs like they ended the regular season, I don't know how to put a POY ceiling for either one of these guys.

Cleveland - LeBron. LeBron LeBron...LeBron.

The eliminated?

No one eliminated in the West is still relevant for Top 5 consideration, to me the question is relevant to the two Game 7 losers in the East: Oladipo and Giannis.

Oladipo is the straight forward one. His candidacy is tied a bit to Cleveland. If Cleveland were to, say, "turn it on" and dominate the East the rest of the way, it's within the realm of possibility that Oladipo could be seen as the 2nd best candidate from that conference, and if the West has enough injury and disappointment, maybe Oladipo can squeeze in.

Giannis is the one that's hard to tie down. While he's never been a serious Top 5 candidate before this season, quite quickly this season his play made us all basically decree that Giannis was a clear cut Top 5 player. But the Bucks haven't been able to show any signs of progress really - they are still on the treadmill of mediocrity essentially unimproved since '14-15 despite the fact that Giannis' reputation has come so far. Everyone blames coaching, and yeah the coaches deserve blame. Clearly though this isn't a case of coaches getting in the way of a player who already has everything figured out. More like they just handed him the team and hoped he'd figure it all out. Maybe a new coach can take Giannis to a new level, but as things stand, Giannis is still figuring out how to consistently win in this league.

Current Top 5:
1. Harden
2. Davis
3. Paul
4. LeBron
5. Durant

Most likely to bump:
Curry
Simmons
Embiid
Gobert

A thought on Honorable Mention: For me, my "second" five is not a straight ranking. It's a bit more about just thinking of who accomplished the most for the legacy. Normally this distinction is without difference, but I'll tell you that at this point Jimmy Butler feels like a lock for HM. Butler proved a lot to me this year. Frankly I find myself looking back on the 2011 draft and asking myself: Would I really take Kawhi over Butler any more?

Last thought: I honestly don't know when we had 2 such strong rookies as Simmons & Mitchell in the same year. Might be since Bird/Magic.

Westbrook has a similar candidacy to Giannis in my mind and Jokic feels deserving of a mention, but a great summary.

[dhsilv2]

Utah - If they lose as expected to GS, I doubt any Jazzman makes my top 5. Gobert though seems very worthy of consideration, and Mitchell just keeps improving.

Last thought: I honestly don't know when we had 2 such strong rookies as Simmons & Mitchell in the same year. Might be since Bird/Magic.

Utah is playing the rockets, not a big deal.

I think you're going a bit far with the mitchell simmons. Jordan and Hakeem? Hill Kidd? Now these two seem maybe to be in better playoff positions if that's where you were going.

[GSP]

Victor should be getting top 5 consideration IMO

+25.7 on/off before this game for series. They were +1 with him and lost by 4

It was the story of the season for Pacers. Theyre a lottery team without him. Next series will show us more but IMO his defense on the perimeter was the biggest reason Cavs had shooting woes all series. Lebrons defense was shaky throughout despite the numbers he put up i think Victor was just as good in this series. I dont think Toronto will have same success defending Cavs shooting

Victor was arguably the 2nd best perimeter defender in the Nba behind Andre Roberson in 2018

[WarriorGM]

Toronto - It's going to take something crazy for me to see any Raptor as a serious Top 5 candidate.
Boston - Ditto for the Celtics.

If either the Raptors or Celtics made the finals—which is certainly conceivable since they are the top two seeds in the East—how could neither team have a candidate?

Saying they play team ball would underestimate the ability to affect or maximize teammates and puts hero ball on a pedestal.

[GSP]

Toronto - It's going to take something crazy for me to see any Raptor as a serious Top 5 candidate.
Boston - Ditto for the Celtics.

If either the Raptors or Celtics made the finals—which is certainly conceivable since they are the top two seeds in the East—how could neither team have a candidate?

Saying they play team ball would underestimate the ability to affect or maximize teammates and puts hero ball on a pedestal.

B/c the most important piece for us is by far Brad Stevens

18 Raptors are arguably the deepest team in Nba history. Their bench did historic things all year

Youd have to be delusional to think either teams success is based on a player on their team playing anywhere in the vicinity of top 5

[WarriorGM]

Toronto - It's going to take something crazy for me to see any Raptor as a serious Top 5 candidate.
Boston - Ditto for the Celtics.

If either the Raptors or Celtics made the finals—which is certainly conceivable since they are the top two seeds in the East—how could neither team have a candidate?

Saying they play team ball would underestimate the ability to affect or maximize teammates and puts hero ball on a pedestal.

B/c the most important piece for us is by far Brad Stevens

18 Raptors are arguably the deepest team in Nba history. Their bench did historic things all year

Youd have to be delusional to think either teams success is based on a player on their team playing anywhere in the vicinity of top 5

Such thinking seems to reflect an inherent bias towards hero ball. The ability to fit into a team without crowding out teammates and even enhancing them are abilities that are grossly underappreciated and unaccounted for.

[NinjaSheppard]

Yeah DeRozan and Lowry's ability to sit on the bench and watch as the second unit goes on a 10-0 run is something very few players are capable of doing.

[dreamshake]

Current Top 5:
1. Harden
2. Davis
3. Paul
4. LeBron
5. Durant

Could you expand a bit on why CP is this high? Or maybe point to where you've talked about it in the past?

Hard for me to understand why the #2 guy on a team, who missed a third of the season, would be above guys like Giannis or Oladipo let alone LeBron and Durant. Also Curry - I could understand him outside the top 5 based on games missed, but then CP3 has missed almost as many.

Just curious to know your thought process.

[INKtastic]

Current Top 5:
1. Harden
2. Davis
3. Paul
4. LeBron
5. Durant

Could you expand a bit on why CP is this high? Or maybe point to where you've talked about it in the past?

Hard for me to understand why the #2 guy on a team, who missed a third of the season, would be above guys like Giannis or Oladipo let alone LeBron and Durant. Also Curry - I could understand him outside the top 5 based on games missed, but then CP3 has missed almost as many.

Just curious to know your thought process.

Apparently, the team winning without Harden boosts hardens value while the same team losing without Paul boosts Paul's value. Meanwhile LeBron gets downgraded for playing every game and carrying his team. Because, hey, LeBron should somehow be penalized for his teammates being injured and inconsistent. Never-mind that he's clearly still the best player on the planet.

Pretty much consensus MVP is Harden/LeBron as 1/2. And LeBron is hands down best player in the playoffs. So put him down at #4.

For some reason it feels like Doctor MJ, who I really respect as a poster, has developed an anti-lebron bias over the years. This wasn't always the case.

[Doctor MJ]

Westbrook has a similar candidacy to Giannis in my mind and Jokic feels deserving of a mention, but a great summary.

Thanks for the kind words.

I don't see Westbrook as having Giannis' argument. Giannis argument is basically Westbrook's from LAST year: Imagine if he had more help. With Westbrook we no long have to imagine what he'd do with more help.

[Doctor MJ]

Utah - If they lose as expected to GS, I doubt any Jazzman makes my top 5. Gobert though seems very worthy of consideration, and Mitchell just keeps improving.

Last thought: I honestly don't know when we had 2 such strong rookies as Simmons & Mitchell in the same year. Might be since Bird/Magic.

Utah is playing the rockets, not a big deal.

I think you're going a bit far with the mitchell simmons. Jordan and Hakeem? Hill Kidd? Now these two seem maybe to be in better playoff positions if that's where you were going.

Mitchell and Simmons are leading contenders past the first round of the playoffs. This is not something that would have been said about those other two pairs.