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that steal and dunk looked about as explosive as Ive ever seen lebron on the heat

SideshowBob wrote:So-so game tonight. Didn't look to aggressive even with Wade out. Got to the rim a few times pretty easily. He was getting guys good looks late in the fourth, but they weren't converting. Didn't look to score at the end of the game, but I'd guess that he didn't want to bang around in the land with that bruised knee.

The one aspect of his game I expected to improve this season was his late-game play, what with his improved mobility leading to better shot creation. Which is why it was disappointing to see him to so passive in the clutch today. He wasn't attempting to create at all.

Im starting to feel like he could get close to averaging a triple double this season, especially come playoff time. I think its a given he's going to average over 25/10 for sure, and then considering the fact that hes looking to pass a little more and the increase in quality of offensive teammates.. he could pick up the assist numbers, making up for the drop in scoring. However, we haven't really seen him 'try' for a full game this year (like he did in last years playoffs where he averaged about 30/10). Come playoff time when he starts playing over 40 mins a night and picks up his aggressiveness, I could really see him averaging 28-30/11/7-8. The common theme seems to be just how effortlessly everything is for him right now

IG2 wrote:

SideshowBob wrote:So-so game tonight. Didn't look to aggressive even with Wade out. Got to the rim a few times pretty easily. He was getting guys good looks late in the fourth, but they weren't converting. Didn't look to score at the end of the game, but I'd guess that he didn't want to bang around in the land with that bruised knee.

The one aspect of his game I expected to improve this season was his late-game play, what with his improved mobility leading to better shot creation. Which is why it was disappointing to see him to so passive in the clutch today. He wasn't attempting to create at all.

I did as well, but it was one game, and he looked pretty aggressive in the game against Denver last week. I'll let the season play out a bit before I color myself disappointed in that regard.

SideshowBob wrote:
I did as well, but it was one game, and he looked pretty aggressive in the game against Denver last week. I'll let the season play out a bit before I color myself disappointed in that regard.

Fair enough. What I'm looking for though is evidence of ability/willingness on his part that tells me he could be 09/10 level. He's very good and certainly better than the last 2 seasons, but that's the extent of it.

Yeah, I get what you're saying. That's a very high standard though, I don't know if there's anyone in NBA history that was producing at his 08-10 late game level. I'd figure Jordan probably, but we don't have any hard numbers.

With James, not only do we see his own 66/16/8/3/3 63%TS per48 in 2010, and 56/14/13/4 69%TS per48 in 2009, but we have evidence of Cleveland's offense performing like absolute bonkers in last 5 minute situations. To Lebron's credit though, according to Elgee, Miami performed similarly last season, so perhaps his own personal scoring figures aren't as important if he can get the offense to click at the right time.

Sideshow, do you know why there's a discrepancy in PER numbers listed on ESPN and Basketball-Reference? On ESPN, LeBron's at 26.45. On BR it's 31.2. I've followed the stat on both sites before, and it' always been the same. What's going on this season?

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIA/2013.html

Hollinger's PER and Team efficiency numbers always differ from BBR's. This is because there is some error in Hollinger's pace formula. This had been discussed on the old APBRmetrics board before it was hacked, so I can't link you to where it was mentioned, but know that BBR's numbers are accurate.

There is actually discrepancy in the old numbers as well (team and PER), but with an 82 game sample, that discrepancy isn't as large as it is when only 5-6 games have been played, where there's a lot more variance in team pace figures.

For example, on BBR, Lebron's 2009 is listed as 31.67

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/per_season.html

While Hollinger has it at 31.76

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/year/2009

Or take a look at team numbers. On BBR, the 2011 Heat are listed as having a 111.7 ORTG

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2011.html#misc::8

While Hollinger has them at 109.3

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats/_/year/2011

SideshowBob wrote:This is because there is some error in Hollinger's pace formula.

Hasn't anyone brought this to his attention yet?

And glad to know LeBron's PER is in the 30's! Mid 20's just seemed so....pedestrian.

Haha, I guess no one's done it yet.

Yeah, should go up after tonight. Scoring's obviously down but his overall production's phenomenal at a per-minute level right now, and PER loves low turnover guys as well. I maintain that he'll take the record this year, I think mid 30s should happen, especially when the scoring goes back up (PER also awards increase in usage as long as the player converts at >33%).

SideshowBob wrote:Hollinger's PER and Team efficiency numbers always differ from BBR's. This is because there is some error in Hollinger's pace formula. This had been discussed on the old APBRmetrics board before it was hacked, so I can't link you to where it was mentioned, but know that BBR's numbers are accurate.

There is actually discrepancy in the old numbers as well (team and PER), but with an 82 game sample, that discrepancy isn't as large as it is when only 5-6 games have been played, where there's a lot more variance in team pace figures.

For example, on BBR, Lebron's 2009 is listed as 31.67

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/per_season.html

While Hollinger has it at 31.76

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/year/2009

Or take a look at team numbers. On BBR, the 2011 Heat are listed as having a 111.7 ORTG

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2011.html#misc::8

While Hollinger has them at 109.3

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats/_/year/2011

Yeah but 5 point difference in PER between the 2 sites is kinda of a lot. .1 isn't much difference but 5 points is.

Well like he said, the difference is much larger when there's a smaller sample size.

I knew this was going to happen, all these shooters have affected Lebron in the worst way, he becomes to caught up in the flow. No more attacking the basket as his free throws go down each game with more and more jumpshooting which was never his strength. Hope he starts becoming a little more selfish.

Only 4 FTs attempted? And he missed all of them?

I think LeBon's improved athleticism is getting overstated. He still doesn't look as quick as he did in his Cleveland days, hence why he's not attacking the basket as much.

DMVleGeND wrote:Only 4 FTs attempted? And he missed all of them?

I think LeBon's improved athleticism is getting overstated. He still doesn't look as quick as he did in his Cleveland days, hence why he's not attacking the basket as much.

He averaged 8+ FTA the last 2 seasons, so I wouldn't necessarily attribute his lack of attempts to his athleticism. I'd say it has more to do with Miami's emphasis on an 'ego-less' offense this season. They added more talent, so they have made a concerted effort to get everybody involved, leading to a lot less opportunities for LeBron and even when he does get the ball, he's often catching it in spots/situations where it's harder for him to get to the rim. He's passing more too, naturally, since he's surrounded with more talent. All of this is FINE at home, but not really meant for the road, where non-stars/role players play a lot worse - as both Heat losses have proven thus far. I expect LeBron to be FAR more aggressive from next game onwards. That "equal opportunity offense" doesn't work on the road.

I do agree with you about his athleticism being overstated. While his straight-line speed/explosiveness in the half-court has seen a noticeable improvement, he doesn't really have his old fluidity or bounce. About 85% the athlete he once was. The '11 and '12 versions were 75-80%.

You really have to wait until midseason to make an accurate assessment. It's too early and players have had too much rest to really gauge.

Although the advanced stats like him as much, I think Lebron sticking at a 21-25ppg pace would likely cost him the MVP. He's clearly invested in sharing the ball more with the Heat's offensive options and the results are working so far but getting over the "tired of voting for him" hump to get a 4th MVP doesn't happen with a raw stats fall-off. He'd need to average like 9 rebounds/9 assists per game to make up for his ppg taking a hit like that for his line to look impressive enough

I'd might call Paul the frontrunner right now. The Clips next week and a half is going to be important for the MVP race. Their first 13 Gs was probably the hardest in the league: vs MEM (W), @ LAL (W), vs GSW (L), vs CLE (L), vs SAS (W), @ POR (W), vs ATL (W), vs MIA, vs CHI, @ SAS, @ OKC, @ BKN, @ ATL. Their schedule after this stretch is so easy that if the Clippers come out of that sitting on like a 9-4 record, they're going to roll through this regular season IMO. I think if the Clippers or Knicks finish top 2 in their conference it'll be hard for Lebron to win his 4th MVP. The narrative of the Knicks and Clippers franchises being saved by the Melo and Paul trades by taking them from the perennial scrap heap to the top, would be hard to pass up

7 games into the season and Lebron has one game over 25 pts. I mean yeah they are 5-2 which is still a great start to a season but it feels weird to see him score at this 20 ppg rate. As long as they continue to regularly win games and his PER stays at this level, then I cannot criticize him. But I just hope that when the playoffs come around he remembers how to take over games again, because that's his most feared aspect of his game.

He's going to have to remember how to now. I expect him to come out aggressive tonight

Just something to note, LeBron historically struggles against Houston for whatever reason. A lot of that might have been because of Yao and Artest though.