SideshowBob wrote:kayess wrote:Now that it's been a few hours...
Listen, I don't think the POY voting should shift on the basis of 1 or 2 games - UNLESS there was something in those games that alters how you view a player fundamentally (like, Steph has GOAT RS impact, but when things get more physical in the playoffs he drops off a bit and he needs to improve his stamina to carry his impact over to the playoffs). Curry has been way better than LeBron for most of the season AND more portable (though this gap has been exaggerate, I feel).
We have to ask ourselves: is this LeBron with a jumper really who he is fundamentally? (I don't think so, not at this point) Does it matter if his jumper sucks the entire RS but he can bring it when necessary? (I think it should - but I'm not really sure tbh). I honestly don't know how to weigh the criteria right now - and it should encourage us to rethink our criteria, rather than just the rankings for this season - about what goes into the POY.
One thing's for certain though: as he likes to say it, win, lose, or draw in Game 7, nothing can take away from the fact that LeBron's been playing at a GOAT level the past two games to rescue his team from the brink of oblivion. When you are, by varying margins, the best scorer, playmaker, man-, and help-defender in back-to-back elimination games against THE GOAT team, you know you've achieved something special. Arguably the best player in the Finals in the past 5 years.
It's special enough that LeBron haters/Kobe+Jordan stans have come out of the woodwork to start suggesting conspiracy theories, should've been over in 5s, and other matter of nonsense (EDIT: just saw someone call LeBron "the luckiest player in league history" ROFLMAO) to somehow devalue what he's done the past 2 Finals (and let's be honest here - not even his most delusional haters can deny that his increased usage and worse efficiency last year was due to the circumstances).
We've said it again and again on the PC board, and recently JVG's taken to saying this on a national stage: we let the result inform our analysis of the process too much. I feel like LeBron's been on the short end of that stick for a long time, to a greater extent than most superstars. Now he gets a chance to end all that - but even if he doesn't, hopefully his performances don't become just another footnote in basketball history.
+1
My dilemma right now is deciding how I want to go about penalizing Curry for missing PS games & determining to what degree his injuries hamper his game (if they even do).
A couple of hot games from Lebron doesn't make him better (though I don't think there was huge gap before the postseason - I never thought Curry was competing for GOAT peak), but the above point gives him a case.
That said, yeah 2016 Lebron when willing to shoot outside shots and engaged defensively is a/the GOAT level player. How much do you believe GSW has dropped from their peak 2016 level (if at all)? Beacause Lebron in the last two games (particularly late 3rd/full 4th Q) has literally wrecked them on BOTH ends by himself, which is something a younger, sprier Lebron couldn't do against weaker teams.
1) GSW dropping their level - Idk, tbh. I feel like the Cavs have been lucky on D for the most part (barring the 1st today), and GSW's simply not making shots. When they regressed and Cleveland started daring Curry to drive, they adjusted within 2 possessions and got a LeBron breakaway, confident that they can anticipate Curry's passing after he drives (something I thought was ridiculously easy to do because LeBron always does it - apparently its hard when everyone's on you).
Haralabob has an interesting suggestion: iso instead since the Cavs dont have good 1v1 defenders outside of James. But even their worst defenders have been able to contest when 1v1, and James can start cutting angles and erase mistakes at the rim. Their best looks have still come from attacking bad defenders off of the PNR. Maybe it befuddles the Cavs if they stop setting picks, but then their athleticism at the wings (as hilarious as that sounds) might be enough to hold them off if they just ISO.
I'd think of it like this:
Case 1: didn't drop their level - a combination of missing shots, being scouted (Curry's passing after a drive was also exploited by OKC, for example), Cavs just being able to hit a higher effort ceiling (cause while I think they can have a higher ceiling - that's when Kyrie's a vastly improved playmaker, and Love can play defense like he did in the first 2 minutes for 35+ a game, so a long way off)
Case 2: their level dropped - physical play hindering them, nagging injuries/fatigue, motivation, mental bull
IDK what it is, tbh - a Pats-Giants 07 analogy wouldn't be good because the Warriors actually matchup the best against Cleveland (the worst possible combo of 1-4 PNR defenders)
2) 2016 LeBron - I was going to write about how some versions of LeBron could attempt to beat this team (like, non-stop pressure at the rim), but then I realized you meant wrecking them on BOTH ends by himself. I'd say 2013-2014 can do what he did (it's all a matter of effort for 2014, since he was probably saving himself for the playoffs), but it's just been unreal how nearly every single play he's involved in - scoring for himself, creating for others, helping on D, making sure his man doesn't score - is a hugely positive impact for his team.
3) Rating players:
Missing games - didn't ElGee do the math for this somewhat? The reduction in SRS -> reduction in win% -> reduction in championship odds
Injuries - yeah, this is tough. It's clear that everyone's playing hurt at this stage of the season, but to what extent? The Cavs aren't throwing anything different his way really, perhaps more intense, but nothing smart passing (vs. traps) and shooting can't handle. You already saw this game how like 3 mistakes from Shump and JR gave him 9 easy points. If he's not in foul trouble, does he take over the game entirely? Not really a fair assumption since Cleveland were targeting him again from the get go (something they'll do again and again for sure - to tire him out), but it's possible that teams trying to attack him on D is causing his O to suffer
Where does that leave 2016 LeBron? We can't know whether he'd intentionally been saving himself for the Finals (since the past 2 years, that's when his jumper's failed him - heck even in 2013 for the first 5 or so games), but the additions to his off-ball game, along with just being a smarter player have just enabled him to take absolute control of games without his jumper against strong teams when he raises his effort, and as we've seen with his jumper, even against GOAT teams. He's not better than Curry obviously because he can only do this so much, but it's Curry's injuries and drop-off in the playoffs (NB: Curry's still playing well in the playoffs!) that give him a shot at #1.
I don't want to see anyone say "he was simply saving himself for the Finals" if they win, and "his skill set weaknesses were the reason he couldn't win 4 against GS" when they lose. That's winning bias. It's not clear whether it was intentional, but towards the end of Game 6 against Toronto LeBron started taking jumpers again, so there is that. It must also be asked - why didn't he work on this sooner? LeBron's mileage (the load and responsibility he's had to carry in his playoff runs have been incredible) and his extreme, counterproductive self-awareness make it likely that this is partly to ward of fatigue - but you can also look at it as "he did just enough to cruise comfortably, then turned it up in the playoffs/Finals" (**** LeBron for pulling a Shaq on us if this is the case)
EDIT: That last one was a joke - obviously he should do what's best for winning, but he's made it so much more complex for us trying to evaluate him haha
